In today’s blog, I shall go over some of the material I wrote for an upcoming eBook and in addition give an update to my status for offering eBooks, eReports and account management in the near future. Time and space continues to be the overriding factor, and as I get older, I seem to require more of it. Interestingly, however, clarity of thought has also come easier. I watched the same phenomenon in my late father. In his latter years, his demons disappeared when he decided to stop fighting them.
As we all know, capital markets are data intensive and in constant flux. People say the prices represent chaos but I believe otherwise. A market represents prices that are in continuous fluid motion, the effect of various causes. We can study and forecast market motion in terms of its trends and its cycles, if not the length of the trends or the amplitude of the cycles.
There are no absolutes in our work as traders, so to assist in assessing the slope of the trend and the point of cycle for all instruments that trade in the market we use programmed algorithms. We call these simple mathematical programs indicators, or technical indicators, because the application of the science is inexact and requires interpretation, which is the application of art.
There are many types of capital markets (stocks, bonds, commodities, and currency, and some derivative contracts such as options and futures, etc) but I am interested only in stocks (i.e., the identification of companies and their trading price/volume) or Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), which are groups of companies whose stocks trade in markets.
There are good quality companies and bad as based on conventional measures of valuation and there are different types of companies such as consumer and producer companies as well as products and services companies, some that operate locally, regionally, nationally or globally. Some market traders will seek to exploit profit opportunities in any company; however, I confine my trading to a relatively small universe of companies.
I seek to find the best quality companies to trade, but also study a few not-so-good ones in order to help determine the risk and reward possibilities for the company stocks I trade in client accounts. I also trade ETFs, but mostly use them for study purposes. All these companies and ETFs (i.e., the Tradeable List and the Study List) combine to form the Cara Universe.
There are stock markets in many countries, but the US market has the most traded company stocks and the deepest information, and are of the greatest interest to my clients. There are non-US companies (i.e., headquartered in other countries like Canada, China, Brazil, UK, etc) that trade in the US market, and there are US-headquartered companies that trade in other markets. I mostly trade the US market, but also the Canadian market and, because of the availability of information and trading access, to a lesser extent UK, France, Germany, Japan, Hong Kong and Australia among a few others.
There are tiny companies and giant ones in the market, but I am mostly interested in large ones. The smallest ones are more speculative; however, CPM are conservative traders. Every company has stories written to promote their most positive attributes and news or alternatively to make traders think badly of them. I strongly believe that traders ought to ignore the stories and focus on the data.
Presently the Cara Universe is comprised of a total of 1000 company stocks and ETFs. There are about 700 companies and 300 ETFs, all in US or Canada markets, which are updated with daily market data. Some of these companies also trade in other country markets.
I subscribe to one computer service that provides extensive daily market data on all 1000, but does not have data for other markets. I also subscribe to a European computer service that provides data on all companies in the Cara Universe, but no data for ETFs. However, from that service I can also get extensive data for listed companies on most of the exchanges in the world.
Accordingly, I will soon increase the size of the Cara Universe to include about 400 non US or Canadian companies that are mostly not traded in the US or Canada. The expanded Cara Universe will include some companies that also trade in the US market that I study to investigate if and why there are different results in the different markets.
There are endless numbers of unique investment approaches (stocks, bonds, commodities, futures, options, etc); strategies (trading based on fundamental, technical, quantitative or economic data); and services (mutual funds, direct electronic trading, dealing of new securities, portfolio advisory, portfolio management, etc). All of them are heavily promoted to the public. However, I am interested only in one approach (stocks); one list of stocks (Cara Universe); one strategy (e.g., quantitative, i.e., statistical); one objective (e.g., buy as low as possible; sell higher); and, one service (i.e., professional portfolio management of client-owned accounts, at one broker, Interactive Brokers (IB).
Clients determine the type of stocks they want me to trade in their accounts based on their long-term investment objectives: growth (G), value (V) or income (I).
My partner Geoff Goetz trades mostly ETFs and uses mostly a technical analysis strategy. He trades via IB but also uses other broker platforms such as Chas Schwab & Co. Together, as independent buy-side portfolio managers, we focus entirely on the profitable performance in the management of our client accounts.
Because, going forward, I decided to base my own trading and writing strategy almost entirely on statistics, and only the ones that I deem important, I have been building a sophisticated and proprietary Data Base Management System that will help me greatly. This commitment on my part required a switch from the Microsoft to UNIX operating system, and a different server. That change also affected the website, or it will when we make the switch next month.
Regrettably, the Rule of Five has applied, i.e., it has taken five times as long and five times the cost than anticipated. My projected re-start date is now January 1, 2016 – for both the trading services and the writing of eBooks and eReports. Nevertheless, I am making progress. In the meantime, as I receive more fact-based information from the developmental DBMS, I shall try to blog more frequently.
For a tourist outside a 4- or 5-star ocean resort, and one who does not speak Spanish, patience is also required in Cuba, and plenty of it. But then, the weather and the people are terrific; it’s a fun experience, and, in my case, I pick up a few words every day.
Life is good. I believe that life for Cubans is getting better too. Everything takes time.
END
Disclaimer
This website / report are to be used for informational purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation, recommendation or offering of any security. This website / report are not intended to provide investment, tax or legal advice. Greenfield / Cara Media acknowledges that each person has individual needs that may not be met on this website / report and that all investors are not suited for the services, products or securities discussed herein.
Market analysis on this website / report may not be correct, so each investor must make their own independent decisions or obtain professional advice prior to taking investment actions. We make reasonable efforts to be accurate but there may be inaccuracies due to incorrect assumptions, calculations or bad data from another source that create errors in content. This website / report contains information regarding investments that are subject to many risks beyond our control including, but not limited to; economic, currency, geopolitical, business and technological risks.
This website / report contains investment opinions and information that should not be considered a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or follow any investment strategy discussed herein. There may be conflicts of interest with respect to investments discussed on this site due to our principals and/or our clients holding positions or contrary positions in securities mentioned on this website / report.
This website / report are not intended to be used by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such use is illegal or against securities regulations. This site is not intended for use in any jurisdiction or country that requires Greenfield / Cara Media to obtain registration that it does not currently hold.
All content on this website / report is the property of the owners and must not be used, copied or distributed without seeking prior consent of Greenfield / Cara Media.
By using this site, you agree that Greenfield / Cara Media, its principals and affiliated companies are not liable for any content related investment decisions that you may make. This website / report do not provide investment, tax or legal advice. The opinions and work on this website / report are subject to change without notice.