Bill Cara

Life & Politics

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Bill Cara

This morning was one of our longest walks in years. My physical recovery must be complete because we could have walked much further. But when I later checked my phone to see the number of steps taken, the total was only 7901. I was disappointed because I thought it would have been thousands more. Then I realized that during the walk my phone had died.

Bill Cara

A big shout-out to Jim Rickards and Peter Schiff: UNSUBSCRIBED.

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Andy Constan: @dampedspring

Macro view
Financial conditions are NOT restrictive
Growth will bounce
Inflation will stick at to high levels
Earnings estimates for 2025 will not be realized
Fed won’t cut in 2024
Treasury is stuck and will be forced to up coupon issuance
Long term bonds have no upside
Equities are stupid rich
Positioning remains massively overweight long by long only and hedge fund shorts are moderate

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Martin Gurri is a former CIA analyst who was born in Cuba. Here he talks about what is going on in Cuba today, the fact that it’s current government buys almost all the food and energy for the island, the extreme poverty conditions faced by most of the islanders and the coming collapse:

Start at 37 min:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D684jonLMHY

Havana: The New Art of Making Ruins (2006) A Film by Florian Borchmeyer and Matthias Hentschler

This unique documentary tells the stories of the people who reside in these modern ruins, from a homeless man who lives in an abandoned theater (in which Caruso once sang for Cuba’s high society), to an expropriated landowner who struggles against the decay of his parental home, to a writer who conceives a philosophy of the ruins to explain and bear the gradual collapse of the city and its political system”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D684jonLMHY

Bill Cara

Having lived there eight and nine years ago and with some close friends still in Cuba, Pat and I know the economic situation today is dire. The remnants of the Revolution and their children, grandchildren and great grandchildren never suffer. I am sure many of them are in prime seats along the Seine in Paris as I write this. Tonight they will be enjoying the most expensive meals and Champagne in some of the world’s finest restaurants. It’s just despicable.

Bill Cara

The way to prove to Trumpers that Kamala Harris is extremely capable.

Google Kamala Harris Senate Hearings. You will find film of her taking to school some of America’s leading legal, political and agency people. Supreme Court Justices, Attorney Generals, and FBI Directors were unable to withstand her dominating performance in confirmation hearings. In addition, the televised VP Candidate debate with Mike Pence was another example of Kamala making her opponent submit.

Truly, Kamala is an intellectual powerhouse. As her stump speeches continue to impress, few people who presently support Trump will believe he could beat her in any debate. She will continue to ask him to “bring it on” and in my view he will find excuses to avoid losing to her. He will, I believe, lose in a landslide in November.

Bill Cara

Trump now says he only agreed to debate Biden. So the Sept. 10 debate is off.

For her part, Harris says, “Any time, any place. Bring it on.

Bill Cara

Is Trump really to announce a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve as part of his platform?

Are we about to witness more government control over financial markets? If so, that will be one more way that the insiders to government decisions enrich themselves.

But in what part of our cosmic universe is Bitcoin remotely ‘strategic’?

Bill Cara

The FBI Director Wray says Trump probably hit with shrapnel.

How about glass shards from the teleprompter that hit others as well.

Bill Cara

Kamala Harris’s “Bring It On” speech to the American Federation of Teachers in Houston Texas today was another powerful statement that Trump has a real fight on his hands.

As Harris delivers these remarkable speeches day after day, her polling numbers will rise and Trump’s will fall. As Scaramucci said yesterday, his numbers will plunge.

Harris is chomping at the bit to debate Trump. He says he looks forward to it but the world is waiting. I expect we may be waiting for a long time because he’s no match for this woman.

Bill Cara

If politics is about how much money is raised, these numbers speak volumes.

Trump June $110 million

Biden June $127 million

Harris 48-hours $100-plus million from over 1 million donors

Astounding. Historical. Game-changing!

I see Anthony Scaramucci tweeted today about Trump: “His numbers are going to start dropping like a stone and he will drop out of the race to cut a deal to avoid jail. Just wait for it.”

Let’s see how much cash Trump can raise going forward outside Musk’s $45 million per month commitment.

Bill Cara

I have read the total donations following Biden’s switch to Harris already surpasses $230 million.

In Milwaukee, she gave another impressive speech today.

Trump must know by now that he is in deep trouble.

Bill Cara

A Fortune magazine article reports that Musk is no longer committing to monthly donations of $45 million to Trump. More chaos in the Trump camp while Harris’s donations, crowds, and volunteer numbers are overflowing. If Kamala selects Pete Buttigieg as running mate, which is my choice, I believe there will be more donation records set.

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ATI: Activist Treasury Issuance and the Tug-of-War Over Monetary Policy

By adjusting the maturity profile of its debt issuance, Treasury is dynamically managing financial conditions and through them, the economy, usurping core functions of the Federal Reserve. We dub this novel tool “activist Treasury issuance,” or ATI. By manipulating the amount of interest rate risk owned by investors, ATI works through the same channels as the Fed’s quantitative easing programs.
ATI has been a major market driver over the past year and we expect it will continue to play a significant role in the years ahead; ATI may become a regular element of the policy toolbox, driving political business cycles in the market and the economy.

https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/635102_Activist_Treasury_Issuance_-_Hudson_Bay_Capital_Research.pdf

Bill Cara

The one-word answer for why I foresee a Dem landslide in November.

Women.

I don’t think most men see it coming yet. But they will.

It’s about time.

Bill Cara

$81 million donated to DNC in 24 hours says all you need to know.

Landslide coming.

Bill Cara

Biden Out. Endorses Kamala Harris.

A needed decision. Now America and the world will get to see the real Harris.

My money is on Trump refusing to debate/ lose to Harris.

Depending on Harris’ choice for VP candidate, I could foresee a Democrat landslide in November.

Last edited 5 days ago by Bill Cara
goldbug58

Let’s see if the Democrats can seize the initiative here. Trump had momentum but I believe he can be defeated. His speech at the RNC was the same old crap, his programs are great, his people are fantastic, blah blah blah. I’d vote Republican if it wasn’t for him.

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As predicted by J.P.Morgan: “EYE ON THE MARKET | OUTLOOK 2024”

Page 39

[3] President Biden withdraws sometime between Super Tuesday and the November election, citing health reasons. Biden passes the torch to a replacement candidate named by the Democratic National Committee. Biden has a low approval rating for a President with ~10% job creation since his inauguration, although that figure is the by-product of his inauguration coinciding with the rollout of COVID vaccines and a reopening US economy.

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Is this an economy that needs lower rates?:

Torsten Sløk
Apollo Chief Economist

 Daily data shows restaurant bookings remain strong.

• Daily data shows TSA air travel remains strong.

• The Fed’s weekly GDP estimate is 2.2%.

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow is 2.7% and rising.

• Weekly same-store retail sales are strong.

• Jobless claims are modestly higher, perhaps because of auto plant shutdowns and Hurricane Beryl.

• Weekly data for hotel occupancy rates are strong, daily rates are strong, and RevPAR is strong.

• Weekly data for bank lending to consumers and firms show loan growth is accelerating.

• Weekly data for bankruptcy filings are trending down.

• Weekly credit and debit card data show rising loan growth.

• Weekly data for global jet fuel demand is rising.

• Weekly data for Broadway show attendance is normal.

• Weekly data for box office grosses is higher than normal.

• Weekly data shows NYC mobility indicators are normal.

https://www.apolloacademy.com/where-is-the-slowdown/

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What does this mean for a future America?

“New study found that relative reproductive success (RLRS) is higher for people with high ADHD polygenic scores and lower for people with high education attainment and cognitive polygenic scores. People are becoming genetically more ADHD and genetically lower IQ” 
https://x.com/BronskiJoseph/status/1813571969536630999 

(paper: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10519-024-10189-8%5D

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NYUGrad

If anyone wants to check out the interview I did with Efani and their GM. I share free tips to prevent sim hacks and cover my own hack experience. we discuss recent hacks in the news as well

https://nyugrad.substack.com/p/stop-sim-swap-hacks-special-guest