Bill Cara

Life & Politics

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WSJ: French Shipping Giant CMA CGM Pledges $20 Billion Investment in U.S.The world’s No. 3 container line’s pledge comes as Trump pushes to revive the U.S. shipbuilding and maritime industry

https://archive.is/DYbVR

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Hoisington’s Q4 2024 Review and Outlook 

Factories across the world are growing increasingly idle. Global industrial capacity utilization (CAPU) has fallen significantly, and a rising unemployment rate has followed suit, signalling that the available factors of production globally are progressively more redundant. The reason this is relevant is that since 1990, this thirty-four year correlation is consistent with the U.S. experience where data has been available for seven decades. As such, CAPU appears to be the dominant supply-side variable in determining inflation in the United States, China, Japan, U.K. and the EU.

In the United States, CAPU has plummeted to levels lower than at the start of all of the cyclical recessions since 1967.

https://hoisington.com/pdf/HIM2024Q4NP.pdf

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US mulls plan to disrupt Iran’s oil by halting vessels at sea

https://www.aol.com/news/exclusive-us-mulls-plan-disrupt-110920807.html

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Their free ride is over….

German Debt Has Worst Day Since Aftermath of Berlin Wall’s Fall

BBG: https://archive.is/UCiuj#selection-1387.0-1387.63

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US mulls plan to disrupt Iran’s oil by halting vessels at sea

https://www.aol.com/news/exclusive-us-mulls-plan-disrupt-110920807.html

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Feb 28, 2025

  • The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2025:Q1 is 2.9%, with the 50% probability interval at [2.0, 4.0] and the 68% interval at [1.4, 4.5].
  • News from this week’s data releases left the estimate largely unchanged.
  • Negative surprises from personal consumption and housing data were largely offset by positive surprises from disposable personal income and manufacturers’ durable goods data.

https://resources.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/nowcast#/nowcast

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Howard Lutnick, through his firm Cantor Fitzgerald, acquired a 5% stake in Tether, the largest stablecoin issuer, valued at approximately $600 million

Tether owns approximately $113 billion worth of U.S. Treasuries.

Cantor Fitzgerald, a prominent financial services firm led by Howard Lutnick, manages Tether’s U.S. Treasury holdings

Tether has never passed a comprehensive third-party audit from a reputable auditing firm.

In January 2025, Tether announced that it would relocate its headquarters and subsidiaries from the British Virgin Islands to El Salvador after securing a digital asset service provider license there

Tether acquired a significant stake in Rumble through a $775 million strategic investment.

https://www.perplexity.ai/search/howard-lutnick-through-his-fir-koqA4GMoQHKtJSn9mMIeFA

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Trump Administration Readies Order to Bolster U.S. Shipbuilders, Punish China

A draft order includes measures such as raising revenue from Chinese ships and tax credits and grants for shipyards

https://archive.is/iVnlD#selection-5715.0-5719.115

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Oil trader Pierre Andurand erased all his gains from last year in the first two months of 2025

https://archive.is/1TKeu#selection-1733.0-1733.94

goldbug58

JD Vance trying to walk back his comment “US offers a better deal than 20,000 troops from some random country that hasn’t fought a war in over 30 years”. Only France and Britain have pledged peace-keeping troops. Vance says he didn’t mean France or Britain.

Is everyone in the White House a complete unqualified ass?

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Aramco plans to cut its dividend by 32% in 2025. This would be a very strong indication the world’s largest oil company is tightening its belt in anticipation of lower oil prices.

https://archive.is/wwbo3

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goldbug58

Trump goes forward with the 25% on Canada and Mexico, effective tomorrow, adds an additional 10% on China.

NYUGrad

If parents keep threatening to take away their kids iPad and never do it, the kids will never believe the threat ever again.

It will be a miracle to stop Tariffs.

goldbug58

Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick certainly is bright enough and a savvy enough businessman to understand what all of this means. He has a degree in Economics as well.

I respect him because he has faced his share of tragedy in life, he beat cancer and lost both his parents at a young age.

I just wonder if he’s just going to fall in line along with the rest.

goldbug58

Reading about a US importer with a 120,000 shipment enroute from China. Faces a 25,000 tariff (if implemented as planned).

He is asking the shipping company to offload his goods where the ship is currently in port (Norfolk Virginia) rather than sailing it up to Boston. Says it will be cheaper to get it the rest of the way by truck versus paying the 25 grand.

Note: the cost (tariff) is paid by the importer, NOT CHINA.

Americans are generally too goddam ignorant to understand any of this.

NYUGrad

Reminder if you didn’t know. Trump will be addressing Congress Tuesday night. This will be a defacto State of the Union at 9pm ET.

I suspect a complete poop show and 1 man scolding the entire congress. When you corner him and attack him, he has shown his joy for escalation. It will be entertaining to say the least. (reminder I am neutral) 

The tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China are set to begin tomorrow.
I suspect they will go into affect (even temporarily) simply for the reason if they don’t, any future tariff threats won’t be taken seriously.

I also suspect for once, we may see a govt shutdown next week

There are multiple brush fires burning that can all escalate to a massive wild fire right now

goldbug58

One economist expressed the view that a 25% tariff on Canada would drive them into recession within 3 months. Trump just hates Trudeau.

jimg

More oil brought to market is good for cheap oil prices for every nation…..this is a big 180 for Mark Carney

“We as a nation need to build some new pipelines for conventional energy,” Carney said. He added his government would accelerate approvals for such pipelines and for clean energy.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberal-leadership-hopeful-mark-carney-says-he-d-run-a-deficit-to-invest-and-grow-canada-s-economy-1.7460774

He told the CBC this weekend that if he were prime minister his government would specifically accelerate approvals for pipelines, after years of the federal Liberal government cancelling or blocking several pipeline proposals. 

https://nationalpost.com/news/carneys-campaign-admits-to-muddled-messaging

Last edited 3 days ago by jimg
Bill Cara

‘We will rearm and we will protect Ukraine.’

An impressive group of world leaders in meetings this weekend in London stood arm in arm with Zelensky and Ukraine. They will provide the money, manpower and weapons that Ukraine needs to stop Russia from seizing its country.

Despite Trump’s allegiance to Putin, Ukraine’s friends have stood up to Putin and will back Ukraine until this war is over. In comparison to European allies (including Canada), Russia does not “have the cards” to win.

Trump can pull the USA out of NATO. Any further talk from him regarding Ukraine is merely to distract his voters that (a) he can’t find 100,000 illegals to deport nevertheless 13 million, and (b) he can’t cut $500B out of the budget nevertheless $2T.

His speech before Congress on Tuesday will sound like a campaign speech echo. We’ve heard it all before. What we will now see however is an old man, much like Biden, well past his best-before date.

Last edited 3 days ago by Bill Cara
Bill Cara

Grok 3 Review

Using 100 on a scale of satisfaction, I have found Grok 3 to be anywhere from +100 to -100. It can do a phenomenally helpful job or it will try to sell fantasy as fact. The latter applies no matter how defined and purposeful your prompt. The problem is not the user. It’s to do with the garbage library it builds from active users of X.

I understand its a great tool for systems and app programming. I am amazed at its “thinking” abilities, and I know that is a feature it will rapidly develop.

i know what I want and which AI platforms best meet my needs. I presently use about six almost daily. I can see some getting ahead and others falling behind the others in the features I need.

goldbug58

Hegseth orders Pentagon to stop offensive cyber operations against Russia, according to The New York Times.

Bill Cara

A scary thought that only a few months ago, Hegseth couldn’t order a Fox trainee to fetch him a coffee.

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Worth a look…diabetes from an A1c of 12 down to 6

The triple therapy: three free drugs that work better for diabetics | Dr. Ralph DeFronzo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MPsLGrBR2EE

Full interview:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vYQaLV3Fm00

Reaction by Dr. Peter Attia:

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/VuzDD1zZXNQ

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They are back…

Wall Street is once again creating and selling securities backed by everything—the more creative the better—including corporate loans and consumer credit-card debt, lease payments on cars, airplanes and golf carts, and payments to data centers

New U.S. issuance of some of the most popular flavors of publicly traded structured credit hit record levels in 2024
New asset-backed securities totaled $335 billion 2024. Collateralized loan obligations rose to $201 billion

They Crashed the Economy in 2008. Now They’re Back and Bigger Than Ever. Wall Street expects to sell more than $335 billion in asset-backed debt this year. Remember that conference in ‘The Big Short’? It just drew a record 10,000

WSJ:

https://archive.is/axmE1#selection-2611.0-2611.362