It is looking more and more like Trump and his lackeys have been laying the groundwork to sack Powell “for cause” if he doesn’t resign voluntarily.
The rhetoric has shifted to open hostility toward Powell. Combine that with the trial balloons being floated about replacing Powell, the accusation of lavish spending on the Fed Headquarters and stacking the FOMC with Trump loyalists, and it’s hard not to see the writing on the wall.
If Trump removes Powell outright, I think we’d get:
1. A knee-jerk selloff, especially in rates and the dollar along with a gold moonshot. 2. A short-term rally, as markets price in a ???? 300 bps cut ???? 3. But longer-term? Do foreign investors flee once the perception sets in that the Fed is just another group of yes men and women, losing the structural bid from abroad and then 1980s level inflation.
Anyone can be replaced, sure, but replace the Fed chair with a bootlicker, and it would seem to me that risk premium gets repriced everywhere.
Curious how you think this would play out in real time. Would the market celebrate a captive Fed before realizing what it just cheered into existence?
Trump is looking more like a tool for the elite with each passing day. I’m on Powell’s side as inflation is not under control- as witnessed by sky high real estate prices, etc. He should keep his mouth shut on this one.
Ray Guilfoyle
July 10, 2025 10:01 pm
#47575
Does anyone talk about gold and silver stocks here anymore?
G2 Goldfields (Guyana); usually I discount Inferred ounces; looking at 1.5 Million Indicated w/ Mkt Cap 493M US; that’s about $329 per oz in the ground. I don’t exactly consider this a steal here, although an updated MRE is due in September.
Founders Metals (Suriname); has had exceptional assay reports; shares were way overbid as a result up to $4.28, cooled off to 2.40 and those who chased are now crying in their beer. No resource published yet. I have a limit bid at two dollars US.
Perseus Mining (Ghana, Ivory Coast); waiting on year-end results but expect 500k ounces produced at relatively low AISC; Nyanzaga mine in Tanzania expected online in about 18 months; will take production to 700+ thousand ounces; my entry was $1.60 US last Nov.
After reviewing almost 200 speculative start-ups over the past five years, I was early on this one, calling the company “can’t miss.”
This quote is 18 months old, when the stock was C$0.12: “Northstar Clean-Tech is the first investment I may have ever made in 40 years, calling it a ‘no-brainer.” A brilliant business model, demand and supply locked up, skilled and committed business management, and (Aidan Mills) steadfast refusal to dilute the stock. As they say, if I have ever seen a potential 100x bagger, this is it. You and your children will see that as Aidan builds hundreds of these profit-making clean-tech facilities across North America, funded by forward contracts and government subsidies.”
I frequently added: “Long-time followers will know that this company is the only one in 40 years that I opined was a “no-brainer investment.”
I decided to cut down the 800-page institutional version called Navigator to a 350-page retail version I’m calling Maverick.
Reviewed by Gemini:
The Maverick Report: Outfoxing Wall Street for Financial Freedom
The Maverick Report, authored by Bill Cara, provides comprehensive financial analysis and investment guidance for individual investors, emphasizing a contrarian and disciplined approach to navigating stock markets. It scrutinizes market dynamics, including the influence of central and “Humongous” banks, and offers detailed breakdowns of various economic sectors—such as energy, materials, industrials, consumer discretionaries, consumer staples, healthcare, financials, technology, communications, utilities, and real estate—alongside in-depth discussions on technical analysis tools like MACD, RSI, and Pivot Points. The report advocates for direct stock ownership in “quality” companies over diversified funds due to perceived fee inefficiencies and lack of transparency, while also exploring different investment strategies like dollar-cost averaging, growth versus value investing, and the “barbell” approach. It further examines the Canadian market, mutual funds, and ETFs, aiming to foster financial literacy and independent decision-making among its readership.
jimg
July 8, 2025 11:20 am
#47522
Crude exports from the US fell to a two-year low last week as imports rose nearly 2 million barrels a day. This is an immense swing of nearly 4 mmbpd! Twenty-eight million barrels in a 7-day period and there is a complete void of news or information about it.
Starting with BRK breaking under the April 7 lows on light volume. The Buffett premium has become a liability since his departure announcement on May 3. Munger is gone (RIP), and uncertainty is the archenemy of all assets.
Trump Outdoes Abbott & Costello’s “Who’s on First?” Comedy Routine.
The 90-day “reciprocal tariff” deadline—originally set to expire tomorrow, then extended to August 1—is now up in the air once again. When asked at last night’s televised dinner event whether the new deadline was final, Trump replied, “I would say firm, but not 100% firm.”
Move over, Abbott and Costello. After 80 years, Trump has officially surpassed the legendary “Who’s on First?” routine in sheer comedic confusion.
Earnings Season starts in seven days. I anticipate many companies pulling their guidance, citing post-tariff syndrome. The market bulls will not be amused.
jimg
July 7, 2025 10:43 am
#47500
One of the most glaring anomalies in all markets this year was the gold-crude ratio trading at 60 barrels of crude to an ounce of gold. Here it is now at 50 to 1 and rising in long time frames. The previous high of 77 to 1 was an outlier during the Ukraine invasion.
Iran is pumping more oil than at any time since the fall of the Shah, estimated at 5.1 mmbpd of crude and petroleum fluids, according to a UK TV source. OPEC raised production by 500k bpd, and pundits are saying they may increase their rate of taking back cuts in September.
S&P 500 2Q earnings season will begin July 15th. 73% of S&P 500 companies will report between July 11th and August 1st.
Analysts forecast S&P 500 EPS year/year growth will decelerate to just 4% in 2Q from 12% in 1Q. Consensus estimates show margins contracting sequentially, which explains the slowdown in corporate profit growth. We expect the S&P 500 in aggregate will beat this low bar. The median stock is also forecast to report EPS growth of 4%.
The upcoming 2Q earnings season should provide investors with important insights on how companies are adjusting to increased tariff rates. The effective US tariff rate based on announced policies has risen by roughly 10 pp to 13%. Our economists believe the effective tariff rate will eventually be increased by an additional 4 pp to 17%.
If companies are forced to swallow the cost of tariffs, it would represent downside risk to margins. Our economists assume consumers will absorb 70% of the direct cost of tariffs. However, some recent business surveys have indicated lower pass-through, and the May inflation report showed limited tariff imprint. Analyst revisions to margin estimates have been more negative for companies most exposed to tariffs compared with the typical stock. Early earnings results offer conflicting messages on the margin outlook.
Elevated tariffs have yet to weigh on sales forecasts or corporate spending expectations at the aggregate index level. Sales revision sentiment currently registers close to 1 standard deviation above average and reflects improving demand expectations. Capex revision sentiment has stabilized but masks the variation in investment spending at the sector level. Analysts have boosted capex estimates for AI-exposed sectors but lowered estimates for most other sectors.
We expect S&P 500 EPS will grow by +7% in 2025 but see risks around our margin forecast (+35 bp to 11.9%). Our 2025 forecast is in line with the bottom-up consensus (+7%) and above the median top-down strategist (+6%). We will reassess our forecast after monitoring management commentary and results following the 2Q earnings season.
Tariffs vs. Technology: What’s Really Behind the June Payroll Slump?
The June 2025 ADP employment report dropped like a lightning bolt: 33,000 private-sector jobs lost, the first decline in over two years.
What’s behind this sudden drop from the 100,000 net new jobs that economists had forecast? Two thoughts immediately come to mind—President Trump’s tariffs and AI-driven automation—and while both are reshaping the labor market, I believe their impacts are playing out in very different ways.
The Tariff Damage
Trump’s aggressive tariff strategy is already leaving a mark. According to a JP Morgan Chase Institute analysis, US employers could face $82.3 billion in direct costs from the current tariff regime. That’s roughly $2,080 per employee, or 3.1% of the average annual payroll. These costs are being absorbed through price hikes, hiring freezes, and layoffs, particularly in sectors heavily reliant on imports, such as retail and wholesale.
The June ADP report echoes this: hiring hesitancy is rising, not because businesses are failing, but because they’re uncertain about trade policy. Managers cannot operate businesses if they can only guess their costs. They must fully understand the cost structure in detail. Trump’s tariffs are acting like a fog over all business, making company decision-makers reluctant to expand or replace departing workers.
The AI Factor: Hype or Headwind?
While AI is transforming the workplace beyond belief, its role in the current payroll dip is nuanced. Despite fears of mass displacement, most experts agree that at this point, AI is augmenting rather than replacing administrative staff. There are stories that many companies that rushed to replace humans with AI are now walking it back, realizing that the “human touch” remains irreplaceable in many roles.
That said, AI is impacting entry-level white-collar jobs. Its long-term influence on employment is undeniable. But in the short term, AI cannot be said to be the primary driver of June’s job losses.
What Do I Think?
While AI is a slow-burning force reshaping the future of work, Trump’s tariffs are the immediate accelerant behind June’s payroll contraction. While the administration disagrees, policy uncertainty—not automation—is causing businesses to hit pause on hiring.
As we enter the second half of 2025, investors and policymakers alike should keep a close eye on trade negotiations. Because in this round of economic chess, it’s not artificial intelligence and robots making the first move—it’s the tariffs.
As I recover from a couple of wasted months exploring a dead-end approach to active trading, which I abandoned when I realized it was facing regulatory disapproval, I will stick with the plan for video reports and conferencing.
jimg
June 27, 2025 7:38 pm
#47360
August gold fell $80 steadily without pause for 6 hours overnight and bottomed on the equity opening. Someone had a lot of gold to sell, imo.
jimg
June 27, 2025 7:01 pm
#47359
President Trump: “I’ve instructed my people not to do any debt beyond nine months or so.”
I deleted an earlier comment about moving forward with a new techie. A couple of months wasted. I am thankful Alexei withheld moving my server files to the Cloud with the new group until he could see that the relationship would work out. It should have worked wonders, but the fly in the ointment was a serious compliance issue I was unable to resolve to my satisfaction.
Dang…Sorry I missed that low…Still chanelling but I like the volume…headed in the right direction off the low. I think it will chop sideways now that we have hit the pullback area…Nice catch for those who hit that low…Look at that volume…BOTS FEEDING
Back on June 11th I wrote about the melt higher….I can’t tell you how many articles I have seen in the past 2 weeks from major wall street firms all saying this market has gone too far….I warned you back then that they will squeeze the shorts…The stories are FODDER….Food for the 95% of new traders who try their hand…All the while the wall street fat cats continue to offer the cheap dopamine articles on NOW is the time to short…Well, Well, Well… I warned you we would melt higher in the face of possible new world war…We continue to melt up into a very nice crescendo while nobody is looking and the BOTS have feasted on all those new shorts…Stay Humble my friends and Learn.. Stories are written, PRICE IS KEY…
Took profits and cashed out a week ago; money market, bond funds and gold is where I am hiding. Don’t fully get this SPY rally but don’t really miss it either. Dividend yield is still decent on money market cash; you don’t make as much but it’s a lot safer.
Xiaomi Takes on Tesla A note from my friends at Ziggma.com:
Here’s something that should get Tesla (TSLA) investors’ attention.
Chinese smartphone giant Xiaomijust launched its YU7 SUV at 253,500 yuan ($35,322), deliberately undercutting Tesla’s Model Y by 10,000 yuan in China.
But this isn’t just about price competition. Xiaomi is claiming superiority on nearly every metric except driver assistance, boasting a 760-kilometer driving range versus Tesla’s 719 kilometers.
The market response was immediate and telling. Within three minutes of pre-sales opening Thursday night, Xiaomi received over 200,000 orders.
Citi expects the YU7 to achieve monthly sales of 30,000 units, potentially reaching 300,000-360,000 units annually once momentum builds.
Bill,
It is looking more and more like Trump and his lackeys have been laying the groundwork to sack Powell “for cause” if he doesn’t resign voluntarily.
The rhetoric has shifted to open hostility toward Powell. Combine that with the trial balloons being floated about replacing Powell, the accusation of lavish spending on the Fed Headquarters and stacking the FOMC with Trump loyalists, and it’s hard not to see the writing on the wall.
If Trump removes Powell outright, I think we’d get:
1. A knee-jerk selloff, especially in rates and the dollar along with a gold moonshot.
2. A short-term rally, as markets price in a ???? 300 bps cut ????
3. But longer-term? Do foreign investors flee once the perception sets in that the Fed is just another group of yes men and women, losing the structural bid from abroad and then 1980s level inflation.
Anyone can be replaced, sure, but replace the Fed chair with a bootlicker, and it would seem to me that risk premium gets repriced everywhere.
Curious how you think this would play out in real time. Would the market celebrate a captive Fed before realizing what it just cheered into existence?
Trump is looking more like a tool for the elite with each passing day. I’m on Powell’s side as inflation is not under control- as witnessed by sky high real estate prices, etc. He should keep his mouth shut on this one.
Does anyone talk about gold and silver stocks here anymore?
Do you even read thru the blog. I posted on some gold Jr’s yesterday.
Jr gold Exploration/Development:
G2 Goldfields (Guyana); usually I discount Inferred ounces; looking at 1.5 Million Indicated w/ Mkt Cap 493M US; that’s about $329 per oz in the ground. I don’t exactly consider this a steal here, although an updated MRE is due in September.
Founders Metals (Suriname); has had exceptional assay reports; shares were way overbid as a result up to $4.28, cooled off to 2.40 and those who chased are now crying in their beer. No resource published yet. I have a limit bid at two dollars US.
Perseus Mining (Ghana, Ivory Coast); waiting on year-end results but expect 500k ounces produced at relatively low AISC; Nyanzaga mine in Tanzania expected online in about 18 months; will take production to 700+ thousand ounces; my entry was $1.60 US last Nov.
Was Amazon Prime Day a failure, indicating stagflation?
https://billcara.com/help-you-invest/amazon-prime-day-2025-mixed-signals-in-consumer-spending-patterns/
Northstar Clean Tech (TSXV: ROOF)(OTCQB: ROOOF) proof of concept.
This latest 2-minute video from CEO Aidan Mills shows the company is now fully bankable.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F4rXg8y6qec
After reviewing almost 200 speculative start-ups over the past five years, I was early on this one, calling the company “can’t miss.”
This quote is 18 months old, when the stock was C$0.12: “Northstar Clean-Tech is the first investment I may have ever made in 40 years, calling it a ‘no-brainer.” A brilliant business model, demand and supply locked up, skilled and committed business management, and (Aidan Mills) steadfast refusal to dilute the stock. As they say, if I have ever seen a potential 100x bagger, this is it. You and your children will see that as Aidan builds hundreds of these profit-making clean-tech facilities across North America, funded by forward contracts and government subsidies.”
I frequently added: “Long-time followers will know that this company is the only one in 40 years that I opined was a “no-brainer investment.”
Maverick Report #26 will be posted here and at Substack. Here’s the DeepMind audio coverage:
https://notebooklm.google.com/notebook/db9f5a51-5985-4c98-b5fc-796a2cd79090/audio
I decided to cut down the 800-page institutional version called Navigator to a 350-page retail version I’m calling Maverick.
Reviewed by Gemini:
Crude exports from the US fell to a two-year low last week as imports rose nearly 2 million barrels a day. This is an immense swing of nearly 4 mmbpd! Twenty-eight million barrels in a 7-day period and there is a complete void of news or information about it.
What’s next, a tariff on imported crude?
$BRK
Starting with BRK breaking under the April 7 lows on light volume. The Buffett premium has become a liability since his departure announcement on May 3. Munger is gone (RIP), and uncertainty is the archenemy of all assets.
And there is a cash position of $348 billion.
Trump Outdoes Abbott & Costello’s “Who’s on First?” Comedy Routine.
The 90-day “reciprocal tariff” deadline—originally set to expire tomorrow, then extended to August 1—is now up in the air once again. When asked at last night’s televised dinner event whether the new deadline was final, Trump replied, “I would say firm, but not 100% firm.”
Move over, Abbott and Costello. After 80 years, Trump has officially surpassed the legendary “Who’s on First?” routine in sheer comedic confusion.
Relive the classic baseball sketch here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5FsJe4DScDs
Earnings Season starts in seven days. I anticipate many companies pulling their guidance, citing post-tariff syndrome. The market bulls will not be amused.
One of the most glaring anomalies in all markets this year was the gold-crude ratio trading at 60 barrels of crude to an ounce of gold. Here it is now at 50 to 1 and rising in long time frames. The previous high of 77 to 1 was an outlier during the Ukraine invasion.
Iran is pumping more oil than at any time since the fall of the Shah, estimated at 5.1 mmbpd of crude and petroleum fluids, according to a UK TV source. OPEC raised production by 500k bpd, and pundits are saying they may increase their rate of taking back cuts in September.
Navigator 26 audio
https://notebooklm.google.com/notebook/9def0c2b-a3ab-41a0-aac1-d64a0d8a2e0d/audio
I totally agree with Cramer… Wayyyy to many holidays… KEEP THE MARKET OPEN
I pray they succeed… https://www.ainvest.com/news/klotho-neurosciences-gene-therapy-als-dawn-neurodegenerative-disease-treatment-2506/
The stock price collapse of Centene Corporation (CNC), an intermediary for government-sponsored and privately insured healthcare programs. Patients were “significantly sicker than expected”
https://www.perplexity.ai/search/the-stock-price-collapse-of-ce-OBVbC43hT4mv4pdeC_F99w
I wonder what caused the “breakout” of disabled people in 2021?
Earnings Season to start July 15. Are investors ready for the post-tariff syndrome?
A Contrarian Case for ‘Bad Stocks’ in the Cara 100 Global Best Companies
https://billcara.com/help-you-invest/the-contrarian-case-for-luxury-buying-when-sentiment-sours/
Tariffs vs. Technology: What’s Really Behind the June Payroll Slump?
The June 2025 ADP employment report dropped like a lightning bolt: 33,000 private-sector jobs lost, the first decline in over two years.
What’s behind this sudden drop from the 100,000 net new jobs that economists had forecast? Two thoughts immediately come to mind—President Trump’s tariffs and AI-driven automation—and while both are reshaping the labor market, I believe their impacts are playing out in very different ways.
The Tariff Damage
Trump’s aggressive tariff strategy is already leaving a mark. According to a JP Morgan Chase Institute analysis, US employers could face $82.3 billion in direct costs from the current tariff regime. That’s roughly $2,080 per employee, or 3.1% of the average annual payroll. These costs are being absorbed through price hikes, hiring freezes, and layoffs, particularly in sectors heavily reliant on imports, such as retail and wholesale.
The June ADP report echoes this: hiring hesitancy is rising, not because businesses are failing, but because they’re uncertain about trade policy. Managers cannot operate businesses if they can only guess their costs. They must fully understand the cost structure in detail. Trump’s tariffs are acting like a fog over all business, making company decision-makers reluctant to expand or replace departing workers.
The AI Factor: Hype or Headwind?
While AI is transforming the workplace beyond belief, its role in the current payroll dip is nuanced. Despite fears of mass displacement, most experts agree that at this point, AI is augmenting rather than replacing administrative staff. There are stories that many companies that rushed to replace humans with AI are now walking it back, realizing that the “human touch” remains irreplaceable in many roles.
That said, AI is impacting entry-level white-collar jobs. Its long-term influence on employment is undeniable. But in the short term, AI cannot be said to be the primary driver of June’s job losses.
What Do I Think?
While AI is a slow-burning force reshaping the future of work, Trump’s tariffs are the immediate accelerant behind June’s payroll contraction. While the administration disagrees, policy uncertainty—not automation—is causing businesses to hit pause on hiring.
As we enter the second half of 2025, investors and policymakers alike should keep a close eye on trade negotiations. Because in this round of economic chess, it’s not artificial intelligence and robots making the first move—it’s the tariffs.
Review of my Navigator #25 (June 28 ) report.
https://notebooklm.google.com/notebook/af54bace-1c3f-47b5-bf7d-8d76ff3beb7a/audio
My reports will soon be sold on Substack.
As I recover from a couple of wasted months exploring a dead-end approach to active trading, which I abandoned when I realized it was facing regulatory disapproval, I will stick with the plan for video reports and conferencing.
August gold fell $80 steadily without pause for 6 hours overnight and bottomed on the equity opening. Someone had a lot of gold to sell, imo.
President Trump: “I’ve instructed my people not to do any debt beyond nine months or so.”
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1938701620893888783
I deleted an earlier comment about moving forward with a new techie. A couple of months wasted. I am thankful Alexei withheld moving my server files to the Cloud with the new group until he could see that the relationship would work out. It should have worked wonders, but the fly in the ointment was a serious compliance issue I was unable to resolve to my satisfaction.
The Nike (NKE +20.5%) pop today must have caught many unsuspecting shorts by surprise.
basketguy, what do you think?
Dang…Sorry I missed that low…Still chanelling but I like the volume…headed in the right direction off the low. I think it will chop sideways now that we have hit the pullback area…Nice catch for those who hit that low…Look at that volume…BOTS FEEDING
Back on June 11th I wrote about the melt higher….I can’t tell you how many articles I have seen in the past 2 weeks from major wall street firms all saying this market has gone too far….I warned you back then that they will squeeze the shorts…The stories are FODDER….Food for the 95% of new traders who try their hand…All the while the wall street fat cats continue to offer the cheap dopamine articles on NOW is the time to short…Well, Well, Well… I warned you we would melt higher in the face of possible new world war…We continue to melt up into a very nice crescendo while nobody is looking and the BOTS have feasted on all those new shorts…Stay Humble my friends and Learn.. Stories are written, PRICE IS KEY…
Took profits and cashed out a week ago; money market, bond funds and gold is where I am hiding. Don’t fully get this SPY rally but don’t really miss it either. Dividend yield is still decent on money market cash; you don’t make as much but it’s a lot safer.
You are so right.
When are we going to write that book on algos?
Maybe when I retire…LOL Still trying to refine things…Always learning and realizing IM HUMAN..LOL
Xiaomi Takes on Tesla
A note from my friends at Ziggma.com: