Bill Cara

Investing with Bill

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jimg

Technicals:

“Forget the Zweig breadth thrust – the NYSE just triggered a SuperZweig.”

https://x.com/jasongoepfert/status/1915496462529814689

will law

Not sure how pertinent or predictive this is. 5% of the stocks in the SPY are in overbought territory. 87% are in between 40-60 RSI. 7% are below 40 RSI. So 94% of the SPY is below the 60 RSI. According to my count, the last time it was this high was March 24th which continued to a lousy week and terrible April so far.

goldbug58

Oilfield Services, Halliburton and Baker Hughes Q1 earnings so far in line. Continued softness in N. America expected, this is already reflected in the share price moves but could still see lower. Obviously this sector is oil price dependent.

E&Ps, I like some of the smaller companies for future exploration and growth.
APA and Murphy already have a couple of significant discoveries in Alaska, Suriname, and Vietnam. Magnolia Oil & Gas.

For my middle-class account, these are 300-share positions.

will law

Big distribution days followed by big accumulation days. The big difference today was the number of new highs.

jimg

Monthly chart of SP500 and the notable decline of Open Interest since 2020:

Last edited 3 days ago by jimg
gonamaket

Thanks for putting investments into perspective. Buy side must give us a good reason to buy

goldbug58

Industrials, some great companies. P/E has come down to the 15-18 range, but what happens if next year’s earnings turn out to be massive losses:

CAT P/E 15
CMI P/E 13
HON P/E 19

jimg
NYUGrad

NY times which is usually left leaning, actually have been doing a decent job being neutral in their “The Daily” podcast. One example is the latest re Meta case on DC.
#META #Facebook
https://open.spotify.com/episode/2g2hUu7FX7xB6Io80ZqLip

Pierre

Thank you Bill!

NYUGrad

The highest level in Free Mason is 33rd Degree. It is no coincidence the NY Federal Reserve Building is located at 33 Liberty St, NY. With the clean font displayed proudly “33”Here is a list of some of the famous Free Masons https://mdmasons.org/about-md-masons/famous-masons/

PXL_20250418_2059177662
NYUGrad

Never happened before. The top 1% has more wealth than the entire middle class.
My take. The mob doesn’t know how or what will fix this so we will continue to vote for leaders promising to save the 99% but will be enriching their own causes. Both sides. Just look at history. The French revolution comes to mind. The revolutionists thought they won. They got the same one rebranded skin.
https://youtu.be/I1SnGXWsE5M

baz22
Last edited 5 days ago by baz22
Kyle
squarpeg1

I saw an interview with Chris Rock once where he made the comment. “If people only knew how much money rich people have, there would be riots in the streets” I thought, you know I think that is true. Most folks don’t hold any grudge against people with more money than them. It’s America, we envie them! However I don’t believe most average americans really understand how MUCH money the wealthy have. How unequal things really are in this society. I have a boat in Florida which I will take up and down the coast in the winter. Just cruising down the intercostal waterway is mind blowing. So much money there. 1500 miles of it. Some guy in Nebraska has no idea.

Kyle

There was an interview years ago on 60 minutes with Sen Ted Kaufman (I believe) on some financial crisis issue. He said something along the lines of :

“There’s a River of Money Flowing Through this Country. Most Don’t Even Know it Exists. Some get a Glimpse of it Occasionally AND Some are SWIMMING In It.”

dave.raj09@yahoo.com

I just finish reading –The French revolution, fascinating!!

Dave

Long before King Trump, for decades, Republicans were all about spend and cut taxes for the rich. Now, the arsonists have been hired to put out the fire. The 2017 Trump tax cuts: Households with incomes in the top 1 percent will receive an average tax cut of more than $60,000 in 2025, compared to an average tax cut of less than $500 for households in the bottom 60 percent, according to the Tax Policy Center (TPC). As a share of after tax income, tax cuts at the top, for both households in the top 1 percent and the top 5 percent, are more than triple the total value of the tax cuts received for people with incomes in the bottom 60 percent.

Alexx

Found this somewhere: Current crash against major ones

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Dave

Thanks, Alexx. Confirms my bias that the pain in the US is just beginning. Most US investor/gamblers have been conditioned to buy the dips. Even I have trouble selling out positions that have been so good to me. I keep working at derisking. Investing was too much fun for far too long. Not so much fun now.

Alexx

Fully agree.

jimg

“I believe there have been three great pillars of investing success over the past 20+ years: US home country bias, US tech bias, and US dollar bias. I believe that all three of these are now melting icebergs, with enough mass to melt for a decade or more. That’s the backdrop for a Prisoners Dilemma portfolio, basically doing the reverse of what’s worked on autopilot for the past 20 years.”

NYUGrad

This is potentially going to hurt risk asset prices tonight and Sunday. A strong inflation figure would allow the Bank of Japan to increase interest rates and normalize its monetary policy. Raising rates would hurt the yen carry trade.
Japan inflation comes in at 3.6%, surpasses BOJ target for three straight years
Published Thu, Apr 17 20257:39 PM EDT

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/18/japan-inflation-comes-in-at-3point6percent-surpasses-boj-target-for-three-straight-years-.html

NYUGrad

Not many are talking housing. Reckoning is here. 400,000 foreclosures are being prevented today. Add rising inventory, low affordability and day on market you now have a powder keg.

https://youtu.be/M7jq6h1D0PE

Last edited 7 days ago by NYUGrad