The Best Quality US Company Stocks are Still Overpriced
Every week in my Global Market Navigator Report, I run an analysis of the Global Best 50 Companies list. I have 15 US companies and 35 outside the US, including 30 in Europe and Asia. Every day, I capture 40 fundamental, technical, and price data points in my database, which I then analyze and utilize to inform my decisions.
I do the same for almost 800 US-listed stocks and nearly 400 ex-US-listed stocks. However, the Global Best list is specifically for portfolio management, while the entire list is intended for research purposes.
The 50 Global Best companies have an average yield of 2.06%, which includes 1.53% for US companies and 2.26% for non-US companies. The average PE ratio of all 50 is 26.6, which includes a US average of 30.8 and a non-US average of 24.9.
The US stocks are relatively overpriced.
I also calculate a technical score. US stocks are bearish at -21.0 on a scale of plus and minus 100. The non-US stocks are slightly bullish, at +9.1.
NY times which is usually left leaning, actually have been doing a decent job being neutral in their “The Daily” podcast. One example is the latest re Meta case on DC. #META #Facebook https://open.spotify.com/episode/2g2hUu7FX7xB6Io80ZqLip
Following a peer review, I decided to restructure the book and lower the price. So instead of publishing on Tuesday, The Maverick’s Edge will be released a week later at US$14.95.
The highest level in Free Mason is 33rd Degree. It is no coincidence the NY Federal Reserve Building is located at 33 Liberty St, NY. With the clean font displayed proudly “33”Here is a list of some of the famous Free Masons https://mdmasons.org/about-md-masons/famous-masons/
Never happened before. The top 1% has more wealth than the entire middle class. My take. The mob doesn’t know how or what will fix this so we will continue to vote for leaders promising to save the 99% but will be enriching their own causes. Both sides. Just look at history. The French revolution comes to mind. The revolutionists thought they won. They got the same one rebranded skin. https://youtu.be/I1SnGXWsE5M
I saw an interview with Chris Rock once where he made the comment. “If people only knew how much money rich people have, there would be riots in the streets” I thought, you know I think that is true. Most folks don’t hold any grudge against people with more money than them. It’s America, we envie them! However I don’t believe most average americans really understand how MUCH money the wealthy have. How unequal things really are in this society. I have a boat in Florida which I will take up and down the coast in the winter. Just cruising down the intercostal waterway is mind blowing. So much money there. 1500 miles of it. Some guy in Nebraska has no idea.
There was an interview years ago on 60 minutes with Sen Ted Kaufman (I believe) on some financial crisis issue. He said something along the lines of :
“There’s a River of Money Flowing Through this Country. Most Don’t Even Know it Exists. Some get a Glimpse of it Occasionally AND Some are SWIMMING In It.”
Long before King Trump, for decades, Republicans were all about spend and cut taxes for the rich. Now, the arsonists have been hired to put out the fire. The 2017 Trump tax cuts: Households with incomes in the top 1 percent will receive an average tax cut of more than $60,000 in 2025, compared to an average tax cut of less than $500 for households in the bottom 60 percent, according to the Tax Policy Center (TPC). As a share of after tax income, tax cuts at the top, for both households in the top 1 percent and the top 5 percent, are more than triple the total value of the tax cuts received for people with incomes in the bottom 60 percent.
Thanks, Alexx. Confirms my bias that the pain in the US is just beginning. Most US investor/gamblers have been conditioned to buy the dips. Even I have trouble selling out positions that have been so good to me. I keep working at derisking. Investing was too much fun for far too long. Not so much fun now.
“I believe there have been three great pillars of investing success over the past 20+ years: US home country bias, US tech bias, and US dollar bias. I believe that all three of these are now melting icebergs, with enough mass to melt for a decade or more. That’s the backdrop for a Prisoners Dilemma portfolio, basically doing the reverse of what’s worked on autopilot for the past 20 years.”
Can you imagine a US-based hedge fund having a large short position in Trump Media?
Since the short float is reported to be 10.4%, some Americans are likely short.
There are firms on the other side, of course, as reported today: “Earlier this week, DJT joined forces with two investment firms to launch Truth Social-branded Separately Managed Accounts, expected to “offer investors access to curated, thematic investment strategies rooted in American values and priorities.”
This is potentially going to hurt risk asset prices tonight and Sunday. A strong inflation figure would allow the Bank of Japan to increase interest rates and normalize its monetary policy. Raising rates would hurt the yen carry trade. Japan inflation comes in at 3.6%, surpasses BOJ target for three straight years Published Thu, Apr 17 20257:39 PM EDT
Not many are talking housing. Reckoning is here. 400,000 foreclosures are being prevented today. Add rising inventory, low affordability and day on market you now have a powder keg.
Powell does not care about stocks (no cuts) and he will tolerate a recession (no cuts). The one thing he must care about is the dollar. If the dollar gets out of control in this environment, inflation will get out of control. The Feds employment mandate is subordinate to the dollar. It always was, always will be. BOC, BOJ, ECB, the Fed are all in the same boat.
After all is said and done, of one thing I am certain, we are going to be at 39 trillion in debt or higher in September when the new fiscal debate for 2026 kicks off.
UNH is the story of the day as the pre-market price is down almost -19%. It’s important because UnitedHealth has been a leading Dow 30 stock, and the Dow futures are down almost -700 points.
A summary of multiple sources, including Reuters:
The Company delivered a bombshell today, slashing its 2025 earnings forecast and triggering a sector-wide sell-off that threatens to erase over $130 billion in market value across major healthcare insurers. The unexpected announcement has sent shockwaves through what had been a relatively stable corner of the market during recent volatility.
Dramatic Profit Forecast Reduction
In a stunning revision that caught Wall Street off guard, UnitedHealth cut its 2025 adjusted earnings per share forecast to $26-$26.50, dramatically lower than its previous guidance of $29.50-$30 per share. Analysts had been expecting $29.73 per share according to LSEG data, making this sharp downward revision particularly jarring to market participants. The company specifically cited soaring Medicare Advantage costs as the primary culprit, with rising demand for outpatient and physician services significantly outpacing the company’s cost projections for 2025. This unexpected surge in utilization has undermined the company’s earlier financial models, forcing a dramatic revision to its forecast.
Ripple Effects Across the Healthcare Insurance Sector
The fallout was immediate and widespread, with UnitedHealth competitors seeing their shares plummet in premarket trading:
Elevance Health dropped nearly 10%
CVS Health fell 8%
Cigna Group shares declined 7%
Centene Corporation tumbled over 12%
Humana, heavily exposed to Medicare Advantage, saw its stock plunge 13%
If these losses hold through regular trading hours, the healthcare insurance sector could see more than $130 billion in market capitalization wiped out in a single day.
Leadership Takes Responsibility
UnitedHealth CEO Andrew Witty addressed the situation directly in a statement accompanying the revised guidance, acknowledging that the company “did not meet our expectations.” Witty promised to “aggressively address challenges” while maintaining the company’s commitment to expanding healthcare services.
“We recognize the significant responsibility we have to our shareholders and the patients we serve,” Witty stated. “While we face operational shortcomings in our Medicare Advantage segment, our fundamental business model remains strong, and we are taking immediate steps to realign our cost structure with current utilization patterns.”
Persistent Industry Headwinds
Today’s announcement comes amid a challenging period for health insurers that began in mid-2023 with elevated medical costs driven by higher demand for government-backed Medicare services. The sector has also faced pressure from lower government reimbursement rates for Medicare Advantage plans. Public sentiment toward health insurers has deteriorated following the tragic murder of UnitedHealth executive Brian Thompson earlier this year, which sparked intense social media backlash over industry practices and heightened scrutiny of healthcare costs and accessibility.
Reversal of Fortune
What makes this profit warning particularly striking is that health insurance stocks had been outperforming broader markets in recent months, despite concerns mounting over potential economic impacts from Trump-era trade tariffs. The sector had been viewed as a relatively safe haven during market uncertainty.
Kevin Gade, Chief Operating Officer at investment firm Bahl & Gaynor, expressed the market’s surprise: “Nobody was expecting this level of a miss or cut to guidance. The magnitude of this revision raises fundamental questions about cost management across the entire sector.”
Looking Ahead: Renewed Scrutiny
UnitedHealth’s announcement has reignited debate over the sustainability of the Medicare Advantage model, which has been a significant driver of growth for major insurers over the past decade. As the population ages and healthcare utilization increases, insurers may face growing challenges in accurately forecasting costs and maintaining profitability. Investors will now closely watch upcoming earnings reports from other major insurers to determine whether UnitedHealth’s challenges represent a company-specific issue or signal broader industry headwinds that could persist through 2025 and beyond.
The dramatic market reaction underscores how quickly investor sentiment can shift in the healthcare sector, highlighting the ongoing challenges companies face as they navigate the complex intersection of healthcare policy, demographic trends, and shareholder expectations.
Took cash to 62% in the brokerage account; not many positions on. Energy, my feel is midstream is safest, bought some Energy Transport (ET) at 15 last week. Still hold Perseus Mining, an African gold producer from last Nov, up 36% on that one. Every time I think its time to sell, it goes higher so I just hold. Everything else is a hit and run trade, if I see 5-6% in a day or two, I liquidate. New Pacific Metals, continues to suck.
After 30 minutes, we can see that Mr Market has decided to tell Mr Trump that reality is more important to investors than fantasy.
I have continued to press the Bear case through these counter-trend rallies because business worldwide cannot be done in the chaotic conditions that Trump creates. It, full-stop, cannot be done.
The Best Quality US Company Stocks are Still Overpriced
Every week in my Global Market Navigator Report, I run an analysis of the Global Best 50 Companies list. I have 15 US companies and 35 outside the US, including 30 in Europe and Asia. Every day, I capture 40 fundamental, technical, and price data points in my database, which I then analyze and utilize to inform my decisions.
I do the same for almost 800 US-listed stocks and nearly 400 ex-US-listed stocks. However, the Global Best list is specifically for portfolio management, while the entire list is intended for research purposes.
The 50 Global Best companies have an average yield of 2.06%, which includes 1.53% for US companies and 2.26% for non-US companies. The average PE ratio of all 50 is 26.6, which includes a US average of 30.8 and a non-US average of 24.9.
The US stocks are relatively overpriced.
I also calculate a technical score. US stocks are bearish at -21.0 on a scale of plus and minus 100. The non-US stocks are slightly bullish, at +9.1.
Industrials, some great companies. P/E has come down to the 15-18 range, but what happens if next year’s earnings turn out to be massive losses:
CAT P/E 15
CMI P/E 13
HON P/E 19
Oilprice.com penned a concise summary covering the situation in oil on April 13.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Saudi-Arabias-Next-Move-Could-Hit-Oil-Prices-Hard.html
NY times which is usually left leaning, actually have been doing a decent job being neutral in their “The Daily” podcast. One example is the latest re Meta case on DC.
#META #Facebook
https://open.spotify.com/episode/2g2hUu7FX7xB6Io80ZqLip
Here is the link to a 20:07-minute DeepMind audio of this week’s Global Market Navigator Report. 654 pages.
https://notebooklm.google.com/notebook/00010305-befd-48f7-9e95-4ef3b7894535/audio
The Maverick’s Edge publishing date
Following a peer review, I decided to restructure the book and lower the price. So instead of publishing on Tuesday, The Maverick’s Edge will be released a week later at US$14.95.
Industry-Specific ETFs
The highest level in Free Mason is 33rd Degree. It is no coincidence the NY Federal Reserve Building is located at 33 Liberty St, NY. With the clean font displayed proudly “33”Here is a list of some of the famous Free Masons https://mdmasons.org/about-md-masons/famous-masons/
Never happened before. The top 1% has more wealth than the entire middle class.
My take. The mob doesn’t know how or what will fix this so we will continue to vote for leaders promising to save the 99% but will be enriching their own causes. Both sides. Just look at history. The French revolution comes to mind. The revolutionists thought they won. They got the same one rebranded skin.
https://youtu.be/I1SnGXWsE5M
From my college day’s… https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Anatomy_of_Revolution#:~:text=The%20Anatomy%20of%20Revolution%20is,French%2C%20and%20the%20Russian%20revolutions.
https://vdoc.pub/search/anatomy%20revolution
I saw an interview with Chris Rock once where he made the comment. “If people only knew how much money rich people have, there would be riots in the streets” I thought, you know I think that is true. Most folks don’t hold any grudge against people with more money than them. It’s America, we envie them! However I don’t believe most average americans really understand how MUCH money the wealthy have. How unequal things really are in this society. I have a boat in Florida which I will take up and down the coast in the winter. Just cruising down the intercostal waterway is mind blowing. So much money there. 1500 miles of it. Some guy in Nebraska has no idea.
There was an interview years ago on 60 minutes with Sen Ted Kaufman (I believe) on some financial crisis issue. He said something along the lines of :
“There’s a River of Money Flowing Through this Country. Most Don’t Even Know it Exists. Some get a Glimpse of it Occasionally AND Some are SWIMMING In It.”
I just finish reading –The French revolution, fascinating!!
Long before King Trump, for decades, Republicans were all about spend and cut taxes for the rich. Now, the arsonists have been hired to put out the fire. The 2017 Trump tax cuts: Households with incomes in the top 1 percent will receive an average tax cut of more than $60,000 in 2025, compared to an average tax cut of less than $500 for households in the bottom 60 percent, according to the Tax Policy Center (TPC). As a share of after tax income, tax cuts at the top, for both households in the top 1 percent and the top 5 percent, are more than triple the total value of the tax cuts received for people with incomes in the bottom 60 percent.
Found this somewhere: Current crash against major ones
Thanks, Alexx. Confirms my bias that the pain in the US is just beginning. Most US investor/gamblers have been conditioned to buy the dips. Even I have trouble selling out positions that have been so good to me. I keep working at derisking. Investing was too much fun for far too long. Not so much fun now.
Fully agree.
“I believe there have been three great pillars of investing success over the past 20+ years: US home country bias, US tech bias, and US dollar bias. I believe that all three of these are now melting icebergs, with enough mass to melt for a decade or more. That’s the backdrop for a Prisoners Dilemma portfolio, basically doing the reverse of what’s worked on autopilot for the past 20 years.”
A UK hedge fund has a large short position in DJT; Trump demands an investigation.
Can you imagine a US-based hedge fund having a large short position in Trump Media?
Since the short float is reported to be 10.4%, some Americans are likely short.
There are firms on the other side, of course, as reported today: “Earlier this week, DJT joined forces with two investment firms to launch Truth Social-branded Separately Managed Accounts, expected to “offer investors access to curated, thematic investment strategies rooted in American values and priorities.”
Stock markets worldwide are closed today, except for those in China (except Hong Kong), Taiwan, Korea, and Japan.
Japan was up +1%, while China was flat. The others were slightly higher.
This is potentially going to hurt risk asset prices tonight and Sunday. A strong inflation figure would allow the Bank of Japan to increase interest rates and normalize its monetary policy. Raising rates would hurt the yen carry trade.
Japan inflation comes in at 3.6%, surpasses BOJ target for three straight years
Published Thu, Apr 17 20257:39 PM EDT
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/18/japan-inflation-comes-in-at-3point6percent-surpasses-boj-target-for-three-straight-years-.html
Not many are talking housing. Reckoning is here. 400,000 foreclosures are being prevented today. Add rising inventory, low affordability and day on market you now have a powder keg.
https://youtu.be/M7jq6h1D0PE
Trump wants Fed Chair Powell fired, but can’t.
Trump, who refuses to be accountable for the biggest error of judgment in Presidential history, really needs Powell as a scapegoat.
Powell does not care about stocks (no cuts) and he will tolerate a recession (no cuts). The one thing he must care about is the dollar. If the dollar gets out of control in this environment, inflation will get out of control. The Feds employment mandate is subordinate to the dollar. It always was, always will be. BOC, BOJ, ECB, the Fed are all in the same boat.
After all is said and done, of one thing I am certain, we are going to be at 39 trillion in debt or higher in September when the new fiscal debate for 2026 kicks off.
My investment thesis is buy Europe until FEZ is beaten by the QQQ. Then I’ll come back to America. So far year-to-date FEZ is up 13%; QQQ is down 13%
I’ve got some of O’Leary’s OEUR in my 401-K and the chart matches ur FEZ. Wonder if that’s all I’m doing is buying FEZ????
UnitedHealth’s Profit Warning Sends Healthcare Stocks Tumbling
UNH is the story of the day as the pre-market price is down almost -19%. It’s important because UnitedHealth has been a leading Dow 30 stock, and the Dow futures are down almost -700 points.
A summary of multiple sources, including Reuters:
The Company delivered a bombshell today, slashing its 2025 earnings forecast and triggering a sector-wide sell-off that threatens to erase over $130 billion in market value across major healthcare insurers. The unexpected announcement has sent shockwaves through what had been a relatively stable corner of the market during recent volatility.
Dramatic Profit Forecast Reduction
In a stunning revision that caught Wall Street off guard, UnitedHealth cut its 2025 adjusted earnings per share forecast to $26-$26.50, dramatically lower than its previous guidance of $29.50-$30 per share. Analysts had been expecting $29.73 per share according to LSEG data, making this sharp downward revision particularly jarring to market participants.
The company specifically cited soaring Medicare Advantage costs as the primary culprit, with rising demand for outpatient and physician services significantly outpacing the company’s cost projections for 2025. This unexpected surge in utilization has undermined the company’s earlier financial models, forcing a dramatic revision to its forecast.
Ripple Effects Across the Healthcare Insurance Sector
The fallout was immediate and widespread, with UnitedHealth competitors seeing their shares plummet in premarket trading:
If these losses hold through regular trading hours, the healthcare insurance sector could see more than $130 billion in market capitalization wiped out in a single day.
Leadership Takes Responsibility
UnitedHealth CEO Andrew Witty addressed the situation directly in a statement accompanying the revised guidance, acknowledging that the company “did not meet our expectations.” Witty promised to “aggressively address challenges” while maintaining the company’s commitment to expanding healthcare services.
“We recognize the significant responsibility we have to our shareholders and the patients we serve,” Witty stated. “While we face operational shortcomings in our Medicare Advantage segment, our fundamental business model remains strong, and we are taking immediate steps to realign our cost structure with current utilization patterns.”
Persistent Industry Headwinds
Today’s announcement comes amid a challenging period for health insurers that began in mid-2023 with elevated medical costs driven by higher demand for government-backed Medicare services. The sector has also faced pressure from lower government reimbursement rates for Medicare Advantage plans.
Public sentiment toward health insurers has deteriorated following the tragic murder of UnitedHealth executive Brian Thompson earlier this year, which sparked intense social media backlash over industry practices and heightened scrutiny of healthcare costs and accessibility.
Reversal of Fortune
What makes this profit warning particularly striking is that health insurance stocks had been outperforming broader markets in recent months, despite concerns mounting over potential economic impacts from Trump-era trade tariffs. The sector had been viewed as a relatively safe haven during market uncertainty.
Kevin Gade, Chief Operating Officer at investment firm Bahl & Gaynor, expressed the market’s surprise: “Nobody was expecting this level of a miss or cut to guidance. The magnitude of this revision raises fundamental questions about cost management across the entire sector.”
Looking Ahead: Renewed Scrutiny
UnitedHealth’s announcement has reignited debate over the sustainability of the Medicare Advantage model, which has been a significant driver of growth for major insurers over the past decade. As the population ages and healthcare utilization increases, insurers may face growing challenges in accurately forecasting costs and maintaining profitability.
Investors will now closely watch upcoming earnings reports from other major insurers to determine whether UnitedHealth’s challenges represent a company-specific issue or signal broader industry headwinds that could persist through 2025 and beyond.
The dramatic market reaction underscores how quickly investor sentiment can shift in the healthcare sector, highlighting the ongoing challenges companies face as they navigate the complex intersection of healthcare policy, demographic trends, and shareholder expectations.
UNH StockCharts.com Daily data chart as of the close yesterday
In a nutshell
Rate cut (iPad) go bye bye
https://youtu.be/dRv28cAEOVk
I wrote something about Harvard and Trump in Life & Politics that is important to me. I hope you read it.
Major losses today, but Energy was strong.
In the Cara 100 (temporarily discontinued), 7 of the top 9 gainers today were Energy, while #5 (Kinross) and #7 (Alamos) are goldminers.
Cash, gold, and short-term T-bills have been the correct strategy.
In the US traded global 50 here was the performance to downside
And green
Took cash to 62% in the brokerage account; not many positions on. Energy, my feel is midstream is safest, bought some Energy Transport (ET) at 15 last week. Still hold Perseus Mining, an African gold producer from last Nov, up 36% on that one. Every time I think its time to sell, it goes higher so I just hold. Everything else is a hit and run trade, if I see 5-6% in a day or two, I liquidate. New Pacific Metals, continues to suck.
Buffet’s huge cash hoard:
Earnings Season critique.
After 30 minutes, we can see that Mr Market has decided to tell Mr Trump that reality is more important to investors than fantasy.
I have continued to press the Bear case through these counter-trend rallies because business worldwide cannot be done in the chaotic conditions that Trump creates. It, full-stop, cannot be done.
Sure sounds like negotiations are moving well huh?
“we borrow money from Chinese peasants to buy the things those Chinese peasants manufacture.” JD Vance
“Let those peasants in the United States wail in front of the 5,000 years of Chinese civilization.” – China Foreign Ministry
This DeepMind podcast discusses The Maverick’s Edge book I’ll publish next week.
https://notebooklm.google.com/notebook/6b082ba1-d499-4a78-be5d-6c7bff5b5e0e
The US-China Tariff War is not a matter of who wins.