Bill Cara

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Kyle

Does anyone have a good Index/ETF/Stock Xcorrelation estimator??? I can’t seem to find the one I used to use. Was curious abt the $SPX -vs- BITCOIN Xcorr. Best I can find right now is

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/asset-correlations#analysisResults

using Tickers ‘SPY IBIT’ & ‘Daily’ & ’60 Trading Days’

yielding 0.41

Kyle

Here’s another one …

https://www.etfscreen.com/corrsym.php?s=SPY

BITCOIN seems to be rolling in ~0.47-0.46

& SPROT 0.36 , 0.28 , 0.11

using ‘Find in page’ tool

NYUGrad

Wall St will say if you sell you will miss the biggest rallies.

Be very careful. Context. 🥷👇

Screenshot_20250401-122009
Last edited 8 hours ago by NYUGrad
NYUGrad

Intraday breadth rolling over. 12:30pm

NYUGrad

Nice work!
How quickly will tariff inflation lead to deflation after demand collapses? 1 month? 1 qtr? 1 yr? A decade?

Last edited 9 hours ago by NYUGrad
jimg

I combined your analysis from Help You Invest entitled “The Impact of Tariffs on the Global Economy: A Comprehensive Analysis” along with the latest report from the Office of United States Trade Representative entitled “USTR Releases 2025 National Trade Estimate Report”. “The NTE is an annual report detailing foreign trade barriers faced by U.S. exporters and USTR’s efforts to reduce those barriers”
https://ustr.gov/about/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2025/march/ustr-releases-2025-national-trade-estimate-report

https://notebooklm.google.com/notebook/4bf801be-907a-455c-af04-debba03a48ca/audio

Kyle

That ustr document was enlightening. Thanks for posting.

NYUGrad

What a coincidence. I shared similar sentiment via mag 7 p&f charts

https://www.notyouradvisor.com/p/best-apple-in-the-cart

baz22

I’m going to say my peace and then I’m done… I came to this site almost 20 years ago – and worked endlessly and learned like many here… I like to kid around but I am deadly serious on my trades .. I disappoint some, I anger others, as they sometimes anger me.. But I will tell All of you this… I have lost Everything – Twice – because of bad trades… I mean Everything..My house, my wife, my money…… I’ve lived in the basement of the golf club for one year… I’ve lived in a friend’s abandoned house with no running water for Three years… In my truck for Six months…I have severe health issues from Agent Orange in Vietnam in 1971 when I was with the First Cavalry Air Mobile…So regardless of what people may think, Trades are no laughing matter for me…I make it a point of personal pride and being a man not to ridicule or question others trades… If they believe in them, that’s their choice…if they can post them for the world to see, then I honor them and support their courage…Who am I, of all people, to cast stones ?

Last edited 1 day ago by baz22
Karlo

You have always had my respect. Nam (65-66).

Kyle

And my Respect as well. I found this site ~this time Apr/May 2005. Been a LOT of Changes since then. Be Well & Stay SAFE. Cheers Kyle

NYUGrad

Tooth paste, soup, soda, cigarettes, orange juice, and utilities led today. Be wary.

Screenshot_20250331-173941
NYUGrad

It is working using this link

Kieran

Yes, the link worked for me also. Thank you.

NYUGrad

Let’s see if the dip buyers can row a cruise ship from a stand still

NYUGrad

There is no institutional support or breadth on the NYSE or Nasdaq on this bounce as of noon

Kyle

Bill — IF YOU Leave it Alone and Let it Roll it will get BACK to the way it used to Be.

JUST LEAVE IT ALONE … You’ll Be Amazed ….

dave.raj09@yahoo.com

i am 75 year old, I can say with experience that more busy you are, work more and work hard , you will feel younger,energetic and life full fun, thank you for everything you are doing

Last edited 2 days ago by [email protected]
Dave

Whatever you decide, thank you again for these last 20 years or so. Can’t say it enough times.

baz22

I’m betting my entire account that BTC begins a mass run next week

Chris

It would be great to hear your thesis as to why a mass run is starting. Bitcoin ETF options activity doesn’t suggest any big moves.

baz22

That’s the point
Ill

Last edited 2 days ago by baz22
baz22

The history data I use is solid

Chris

Not sure I get the point. Are you suggesting that your research can move the Bitcoin market?

baz22

It can for me..and whoever chooses to enter. I’m a very small fish in a sea of whales… Trump will cave …I believe the Market as a whole will explode up…

Last edited 2 days ago by baz22
Kyle

Yippee Ki-Yay … These next 4yrs …

Kyle

IDK … Here’s IBIT … Somewhere along the way I learned the value of drawing TL’s off Donchian-block corners and to NOT Swing My Thing TOOOOO Wildly Before That TL Broke. Just my 2cents.

2025-03-29_IBITd-gmma9-2donch-rsi13-OHLC
Kyle

IBIT … OTOH there’s a HTF Fib-draw that comes into play …

2025-03-29_IBITb-meenv089e89w-rsi13-OHLC
dave.raj09@yahoo.com

I agree, Trump will cave, they all remember that in midterm Obama’s democrat lost over 100 seat in house, If trump’s republican don’t shape up–they may lose more than 100?????

baz22

I’m sorry to disappoint you…but I stand by my prediction
BTC $ 150,000 in April, 2025

Last edited 2 days ago by baz22
NYUGrad

The Thread Uniting Today, the Peaks of The Great Depression and the Dot-Com Era
Quantum Entanglement Time Machine
https://www.notyouradvisor.com/p/the-thread-uniting-today-and-the

slopechart_SPX42
Kyle

Looks like everything is going according to plan. When Trump left office (after the corrupt election), SPX_3800 was roughly the level. After the Inflation Reduction Act (i.e., the Get Biden Re-Elected Act) of Aug-2022, they were able to get it up to ATH SPX_6147.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflation_Reduction_Act

IMHO, Trump views that run-up as being Biden / Pelosi / Schumer ‘Scooby Doo Bucks’ that are easily BURNT to get these Tariffs in place. It’s All Good ….

I tried to attach a chart in a previous post. Not sure if it will survive this time either.

Kyle

chart

2025-03-28_SPXb-meenv089-rsi13-OHC
Kyle

OK. So you have to post charts separately to get them thru. OK

Kyle

This is Not Normal … Never has been … Ask Rick Santelli …

2025-03-28_SPXb-PFork-Draw-2009-to-now
baz22

I’m already lining up my bets…that Tuesday will be a big nothing burger…
No Chicken Little here..
*.. Bluebird ( aka ‘ black box ‘ Talen Sickle Cell treatment ) gets buyout offer

Last edited 4 days ago by baz22
Kyle

baz — wish there was a way we could directly communicate

kylemunsey<at>comcast<dot>net

Be Well

Kyle

BLUE … Now that chart is just Special …

2025-03-28_BLUEb-meenv089-rsi13-ohlc
Kyle

MLGO — OTOH …

2025-03-28_MLGOd-meenv053-rsi13-HA
baz22

Per MLGO… As WIMI was the ‘ parent ‘ company of MLGO, it now control’s 68% of the outstanding shares with a ten year lockup…. Why is WIMI not moving in tandem with MicroAlgo shares ?… WIMI has an upcoming 1 for 20 stock split scheduled for this Tuesday…

Last edited 3 days ago by baz22
baz22

I think you will understand the ‘ end game ‘… Most fascinating outline of one person’s business vision I’ve ever heard. It’s worth the time… Hosted by Guy Adami.. Be well …..https://youtu.be/dc9T9POb50A?si=4zj7mOrsUoC9UMnQ

Last edited 3 days ago by baz22
baz22

Remember…Editas put their Excellent, and Safe, ex vivo crispr Sickle Cell trial ( phase 2-3 ) on hold to conserve resources for in vivo work on Sickle Cell.. It most definitely would be for sale at the right price.
** yes, I restarted a major Edit position late today

Last edited 3 days ago by baz22
Ep22

Good reminder! Few people know/remember that the Friday before was a big red warning flag.

goldbug58

I remember it. Ronald Reagan reassuring people on national television.

goldbug58

Copper at an ATH but Basic Materials sector remains weak; that includes iron ore, aluminum, and chemicals. Atlanta Fed predicting negative growth in Q1 GDP (-2.8% however seems a ridiculously wrong and shocking number). Inflation Feb PCE came in at 2.8%. Consumer sentiment v. poor. #stagflation

goldbug58

MEG Energy, Tourmaline, Imperial, upstream jewels; Keyera and Pembina have a place with Enbridge for midstream; have owned CNQ and Suncor in the past and done well (Suncor feels fully priced at the moment). If all this tariff BS hadn’t started would own all of them. I’ve since reduced exposure to oil.