Steve Liesman (CNBC) says other country tariff rates listed by Trump are materially untrue. Some of the differences are striking. This will be big news tomorrow.
Liesman says that the US is now the highest tariff country in the world by far.
investors have decided to largely quit the equity markets. Trumpers will support the equity market to try to put lipstick on this pig. But I still feel the equity market could go into a ‘no bid’ free-fall.
Market will always find a low level and then bounce. During the Great Depression 1930s, there were many large counter-trend rallies, but the economic damage was so severe at the time, it took over ten years to regain stability. The same will happen now. Countries will not trust America for many years. They will sign trade agreements that exclude the US. American business people and tourists will face ‘Yankee Go Home.’ Signs now.
Countries worldwide will sell their holdings of US debt. The USD will weaken a lot, as a result, so imports will be more costly as well as the tariff costs.
I have no doubt that the US will become stronger domestically in maybe 5 to 10 years, but theirs will be a high cost lifestyle. Already the US cannot compete in manufacturing high value products with $33 labor rates in competition with equivalent value products costing as low as US$7 labor rates.
The reaction from international countries and investors is as anticipated. It’s quite negative. That same negativity will soon pervade America as money gets tight, prices go up, and jobs get lost. In last week’s Navigator Report, I called it the start of the Age of Austerity. Americans have never lived like people in much of the rest of the world. That’s going to change. In my reports I projected an average annual total return from investments to plunge from the 15-18% range that was enjoyed but is now history to be replaced by 5-8% returns.
With returns that low, why take the risk in equities. Investors are already moving to Treasuries in various countries.
The President signed an aggressive and far-reaching “reciprocal tariff” policy at the White House.
The plan imposes steep tariff rates on many countries, including 34% on China, 20% on the European Union, 46% on Vietnam and 32% on Taiwan.
The White House clarified to CNBC’s Eamon Javers that the tariff rate on Beijing comes in addition to existing 20% tariffs on Chinese imports, meaning the true tariff rate on China is 54%.
S&P ES catching a bid around 5515. Let’s see if it holds overnight. I am a little relieved by what is happening. I thought I was going to crazy today watching the market soar when consumer spending is on record as weak and tariffs going into effect. Sat on my hands all day watching my short positions lose money but stuck to my gut. Tomorrow will be a good day for my account.
Took cash to 64% yesterday in the trading account. The continuous rise in gold has taken my exposure there up to 16% of net worth; I’m usually around 7-10%.
In 45 minutes, the longer the idiot President talked, the US 10-year Treasury yield dropped as capital switched from equities to debt.
He talked about trillions of investments coming into America, like never before! But, as he spoke, trillions of dollars left the US equity market in less than an hour.
It’s still under one hour. NASDAQ, which is bigger than the NYSE, is down -3 and -2.3%. So let’s say the market plunged over $2 trillion.
Americans who believe this con artist, must love his comedy more than their money.
Now for the bad news. Trump says he’s “kind” by imposing tariffs half as big as other countries are imposing on America. But those tariffs are part of international agreements. Trump’s tariffs are new. These countries have returned those dollars to fund America’s debt problem — the debts that all American governments agreed to for decades. If those countries retaliate by pulling out their money, the USD will fall more and the costs of the imports that are needed will increase. Also, those countries will now retaliate with new tariffs that will match the US. Worse, they will tariff the products America absolutely needs to function, like electronics needed for military, commercial aircraft, and auto manufacturing. Plants will shut down across the US.
As the first CNBC analyst I heard remarked, this is worse than the worst case of our models.
I agree.
What’s to come now is Trump’s fight against the Fed. The Fed will not back down. Trump will blame the economic catastrophe to follow on the Fed.
The man is unfit to be President.
The proper way to solve America’s problems is to negotiate, not dictate. If Trump had actually written The Art of the Deal, instead of his ghost-writer, he would be managing this matter prudently. As it is, American workers, consumers, and investors will suffer. Don’t underestimate the amount of damage Trump has caused in the past hour. It’s massive.
Could be the reason — the end of Trump’s chaos — that the market is bullish today.
let’s watch the 10-year Treasury Yield (4.15% -4.20%) and June Gold (3167). If yields continue to sink and Gold rise then investors are expecting more chaos from the White House.
Some interesting items in 1440’s Business & Markets column:
>US stock markets close mixed (S&P 500 +0.4%, Dow -0.0%, Nasdaq +0.9%) (More) | Elon Musk ($342B), Mark Zuckerberg ($216B), and Jeff Bezos ($215B) top Forbes annual list of world’s billionaires; list features 3,028 people, up from last year (More) >Conservative cable channel Newsmax shares rise 179% in second day of trading on NYSE; network now valued at over $16B, twice as much as The New York Times (More) | OpenAI closes $40B funding round, the most ever raised by a private tech company, valuing the ChatGPT maker at $300B (More) >Restaurant chain Hooters files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, sells company-owned restaurants to franchise group led by company’s founders (More) | Judge rejectsJohnson & Johnson’s $10B settlement plan over its talc-based baby powder (More)
I decided that if and when Alexei can do it, there will be a new tab on the website — for trading discussions.
What has bothered me isn’t that some of you are pure traders, it’s that I’m an investor, and my mission is to teach people how to invest successfully. If some people want to gamble their life savings on a 70% move happening in a month, I’m disappointed that they want to use my platform to discuss it.
As a teenager, one summer I worked with a friend helping his real estate salesman father prepare new houses for sale after the builders had finished. We staged the house for sale. At the end of the month, my friend and I each received a large envelope of cash from his father. I didn’t know his father was a heavy bettor on the horse races. The day he paid us, he took us to the track and showed us how to gamble. He didn’t tell us what horse to bet on, but as we kept losing all day and he showed us his winnings, we asked for help. It was the day’s final race, and our remaining cash was a fraction of what we’d earned that month. We were desperate. The father told us it was a large field that he had narrowed his choice to either of two horses. He wouldn’t tell us which one to bet. We saw that one of the horses was a longshot entry in the ‘field.’ When you bet the field, you win if any horse in that group wins. Being no-nothing youngsters, we bet the field to win. Sure enough, down the stretch came two horses well ahead of the pack. An exciting finish, except that our horse was nosed out of the win. That day, we lost every dollar we had worked hard for that month. I never bet on things again. I was a teenager who learned an important life lesson that day.
Years later, my first week at Dominion Securities, as a trainee, I was paired with an Asian rep. Rather than focus on investment sales, however, my associate studied the charts of the most volatile options trading stocks that expired at the end of the week. He was betting pennies per contract on humongous-sized contracts to see if he could strike it rich. There we were on the sales desk of the country’s biggest investment firm, and he was gambling personal money. Needless to say, I never saw him win. But he was hooked.
Many people are also hooked on lottery tickets. I bought one lottery ticket in my life — as a gift to help Italians build a retirement home. The ticket cost me $10 (probably $50 in today’s money). Also, when I lived in the Bahamas, a 3-minute walk from the biggest casino in the Caribbean, I spent many evenings there because of the entertainment– to the point the casino staff got to know me. One day, they observed me at the 25-cent slots with some visiting friends and afterwards called me “the quarter man.”
I know I’m not like most people, but I know that most people would like to be successful investors, and I can help. So, I asked Alexei to provide separate tabs on the website—one for investors and one for pure traders. If and when I have comments about trading, I’ll make them there. Otherwise, I’ll stick to investing-related comments.
My final comment: 95% of pure traders lose. They are betting against the Humongous Bank & Broker casino, the people with the deepest pockets in the world, who use the biggest computers and trading algorithms, and who know every client, every account, and the orders every client places. They hold a license to steal. I’d rather go to the race track or the casino. But, good luck.
I don’t understand what is to be gained by such rhetoric.
Consider for a moment that you were someone in my position—or maybe someone like me who is an ultra-nationalist. If we really wanted Greenland, we would disparage Denmark’s support of it and offer economic incentives.
Threatening military action is absolutely counterproductive.
Look at Canada. It seems that Trump is essentially galvanizing the Canadian people and uniting them under Carney (whom I assess as a more competent/more dangerous carbon copy of Trudeau).
If we had started talking of tariffs with an underlying level of mutual respect and respect for sovereignty, it would seem that conservatives/Pollievre would have a better shot at obtaining power. Both economies could prosper. It’s not a zero-sum game.
Rant over. No response necessary. Thanks for letting me vent. Back to work.
Trump’s Tariffs….. The US tried it in 1938-39, it failed…world more complicated equalization- leveling of tariffs could have been achieved without this collateral damage and ‘bad taste’…. Trump’s comments on Canada – Greenland are beyond stupid, endorsing Russia’s occupation of Ukraine.
His row with WHO-UNESCO etc. sit down and discuss…. Yes US should not be paying 4-5 times more fees than China…agreed.
Trump’s unilateralism and interference are annoying most of the world…. The EU no longer sees the US as friendly…. They will feel it, and Tourism will dry up…
I detest his attitude everyone who doesn’t agree is the village idiot I am going to do it anyway. What if the Native Indians turned on the US government and demanded their lands back? Repay all US Gov gained from us of their lands from seizures etc?
Yes, massive waste in the US…. Don’t blame the world, blame Congress.
Supported but now disillusioned, but the fall will come…. After mid-terms, Congress-Senate will be strangled…
Does anyone have a good Index/ETF/Stock Xcorrelation estimator??? I can’t seem to find the one I used to use. Was curious abt the $SPX -vs- BITCOIN Xcorr. Best I can find right now is
I added several BTC-related instruments to the tables and changed the time frames on the technical analysis to 5-, 15-, 30-, and 60-minute and 5-hour time frames that are more relevant to those trading Bitcoin.
Most of the public is opposed to a ‘strategic’ crypto fund, but given that it’s happening, I will follow it objectively now each week.
I combined your analysis from Help You Invest entitled “The Impact of Tariffs on the Global Economy: A Comprehensive Analysis” along with the latest report from the Office of United States Trade Representative entitled “USTR Releases 2025 National Trade Estimate Report”. “The NTE is an annual report detailing foreign trade barriers faced by U.S. exporters and USTR’s efforts to reduce those barriers” https://ustr.gov/about/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2025/march/ustr-releases-2025-national-trade-estimate-report
I’m going to say my peace and then I’m done… I came to this site almost 20 years ago – and worked endlessly and learned like many here… I like to kid around but I am deadly serious on my trades .. I disappoint some, I anger others, as they sometimes anger me.. But I will tell All of you this… I have lost Everything – Twice – because of bad trades… I mean Everything..My house, my wife, my money…… I’ve lived in the basement of the golf club for one year… I’ve lived in a friend’s abandoned house with no running water for Three years… In my truck for Six months…I have severe health issues from Agent Orange in Vietnam in 1971 when I was with the First Cavalry Air Mobile…So regardless of what people may think, Trades are no laughing matter for me…I make it a point of personal pride and being a man not to ridicule or question others trades… If they believe in them, that’s their choice…if they can post them for the world to see, then I honor them and support their courage…Who am I, of all people, to cast stones ?
Aloha bazz When I was in high school I wrote a speech and read it to the class disputing the Domino Theory of that era. Not to resounding applause. You guys lived it and those who served are the heroes. All the best Mahalo nui loa
There will be a cycle bottom, and the cream will rise.
Google’s Gemini 2.5 Pro becomes #1 ranked model: I agree. It’s fantastic.
OpenAI’s $40B funding round confirmed at $300B valuation: Probably fair.
OpenAI adds image generation to GPT-4o. They had problems earlier today because Alexei couldn’t generate the image for the #12 Navigator Report, but GPT-4o is an excellent platform.
Apple places $1B bet on Nvidia AI servers: They are the best.
xAI and X officially merge in $113B mega-deal: I couldn’t care less.
Alphabet (GOOGL), Apple, and NVIDIA are in my Global Best 50.
Ten of the Dow 30 are in this Global Best 50 Company list.
After the market crashes and most of the usual market cheerleaders are despondent, newcomers to securities investing who buy these ten in the Dow 30, download and understand the free Value Line reports, and turn off CNBC and X, will be successful investors.
The people we read who say they have excellent sources about ABC, or whatever, and fail to explain anything, are cheerleaders, destined for failure.
Andrew Williams is out as CEO of New Pacific Metals.
How pathetic that the man who decided to go behind the curtain rather than stay as Chairman of the Board or an officer of the company is still pulling the strings and cannot be sued for the nonsense happening to this company.
Andrew Williams is a good man. He deserves better. He will go on to better career choices.
New Pacific Metals Announces Executive Changes
March 31, 2025, Vancouver, British Columbia – New Pacific Metals Corp. (TSX: NUAG; NYSE American: NEWP) (“New Pacific” or the “Company”) announces that Andrew Williams will be stepping down as Chief Executive Officer (“CEO”) and Director of the company effective April 15. The Company also announces that it has appointed Jalen Yuan, the Company’s current Chief Financial Officer (“CFO”), as interim CEO. Chester Xie, the Company’s current financial controller, has been appointed interim CFO. Mr. Yuan has been the CFO of the Company for 10 years and has deep knowledge of our Bolivian operations, providing continuity during this transition.
I still expect Pan American (PAAS) to buy out this company’s assets for a price that will never be properly disclosed.
I asked Alexei to remove the report he had posted because there are so many sections that I failed to correct after losing 8 hours of work yesterday and trying to fix it in maybe 4 hours last night — four hours when I wasn’t in the best mood.
The corrected report 2025-12 will be posted tomorrow. This afternoon I have other business to take care of.
First, I have not opened this site since 7:19 pm ET on Friday, so if anybody thinks I removed anything or even read anything, they are wrong.
I have been working on Navigator Report 12 since around 2 pm Friday. I worked straight through until 2 am Saturday. Then I was back at it at 6:30 am Saturday until past midnight, with 2 hours off to watch the Leafs in LA. Then I worked from 7 am today until a late lunch. When I returned from lunch, I unintentionally hit a key that crashed my system.
To say I am exhausted is an understatement. To say I think much about the nonsense I see published here today is even less. I couldn’t care less because this website will be changing soon.
The decision I have to make is whether to close the computer now and fail to publish the Navigator Report 12 that I cannot have worked harder to get done and which looked like it would be the best yet. I just lost all the work done for the past nine hours when my system crashed, and I mistakenly reloaded yesterday’s file from the auto recovery file (and deleted the temp file).
I have spent the past two hours checking everything to recover an unsaved file. It was unsaved because my system has a sync problem between the desktop, documents, and the cloud — on files this size, e.g., 27 MB Navigator reports. Now, my latest work has been overwritten.
So, guys, I am not in the mood to laugh at your nonsense—if you believe it, great—because I have a bigger issue. This Navigator Report 12 was to be the last one before I finalize a deal to partner with an organization to manage everything I do. It would have been a report that met my standards for professionalism.
And now I am too tired to finish, but not too tired to wish many of you goodbye. Find your own place to diddle one another.
i am 75 year old, I can say with experience that more busy you are, work more and work hard , you will feel younger,energetic and life full fun, thank you for everything you are doing
It can for me..and whoever chooses to enter. I’m a very small fish in a sea of whales… Trump will cave …I believe the Market as a whole will explode up…
IDK … Here’s IBIT … Somewhere along the way I learned the value of drawing TL’s off Donchian-block corners and to NOT Swing My Thing TOOOOO Wildly Before That TL Broke. Just my 2cents.
I agree, Trump will cave, they all remember that in midterm Obama’s democrat lost over 100 seat in house, If trump’s republican don’t shape up–they may lose more than 100?????
Your projection was $150K, so go bet your entire account. This lack of professionalism greatly disappoints me after what we accomplished together over many years.
Ninety seconds into this video, Canada’s Prime Minister says the relationship between Canada, militarily and economically …”is over.”
Canada is the biggest source of tourism to the US, and February is the big month. This February, Canadian travel to the US dropped -70%. I don’t know a Canadian willing to go to the US now, other than to sell a second home or business.
I don’t know a Canadian now who knowingly buys American products at the stores. The boycott is universal.
Mark Carney accurately described the relationship between the two countries when he said, with a pause for effect, “It’s over.” Think about that. He gave a formal speech to the country, telling Canadians, “It’s over” between Canada and the US.
A few months ago, I never would have believed I’d hear those words in my lifetime.
Canada will now turn to the UK, Europe, Australia, and Japan for friendship, trade, and military relationships. In reply, Trump says, “Don’t you dare!” He says it like a child.
Well, Canada will. It will also cut off essential goods and services that Americans need. A week after “Liberation Day,” American factories will be shutting down. It’s all because America voted for a totalitarian state, a dictator who does not believe in the rule of law, who threatens the world with the all-powerful US military.
I have said this before: the only way Trump can win his war is to start and finish a world war. I’m not certain that bonespurs has the guts to go to war against the Allied nations that stand behind Canada and the rule of law.
Hitler did. Musk would try. Let’s see how far Trump will go.
Whatever the case, Americans will face a tough few months, but I don’t think they are ready to tell Canada that “it’s over.”
Steve Liesman (CNBC) says other country tariff rates listed by Trump are materially untrue. Some of the differences are striking. This will be big news tomorrow.
Liesman says that the US is now the highest tariff country in the world by far.
If true, let’s hear from Congress.
Government Bonds Worldwide are Booming.
investors have decided to largely quit the equity markets. Trumpers will support the equity market to try to put lipstick on this pig. But I still feel the equity market could go into a ‘no bid’ free-fall.
Market will always find a low level and then bounce. During the Great Depression 1930s, there were many large counter-trend rallies, but the economic damage was so severe at the time, it took over ten years to regain stability. The same will happen now. Countries will not trust America for many years. They will sign trade agreements that exclude the US. American business people and tourists will face ‘Yankee Go Home.’ Signs now.
Countries worldwide will sell their holdings of US debt. The USD will weaken a lot, as a result, so imports will be more costly as well as the tariff costs.
I have no doubt that the US will become stronger domestically in maybe 5 to 10 years, but theirs will be a high cost lifestyle. Already the US cannot compete in manufacturing high value products with $33 labor rates in competition with equivalent value products costing as low as US$7 labor rates.
The reaction from international countries and investors is as anticipated. It’s quite negative. That same negativity will soon pervade America as money gets tight, prices go up, and jobs get lost. In last week’s Navigator Report, I called it the start of the Age of Austerity. Americans have never lived like people in much of the rest of the world. That’s going to change. In my reports I projected an average annual total return from investments to plunge from the 15-18% range that was enjoyed but is now history to be replaced by 5-8% returns.
With returns that low, why take the risk in equities. Investors are already moving to Treasuries in various countries.
Erased 8 hours of trade in one 5 min bar
Per CNBC
trend….so far….
S&P ES catching a bid around 5515. Let’s see if it holds overnight. I am a little relieved by what is happening. I thought I was going to crazy today watching the market soar when consumer spending is on record as weak and tariffs going into effect. Sat on my hands all day watching my short positions lose money but stuck to my gut. Tomorrow will be a good day for my account.
Took cash to 64% yesterday in the trading account. The continuous rise in gold has taken my exposure there up to 16% of net worth; I’m usually around 7-10%.
https://www.notyouradvisor.com/p/is-gold-a-safe-haven-or-a-canary
OMG. The biggest sh*t-show imaginable!
In 45 minutes, the longer the idiot President talked, the US 10-year Treasury yield dropped as capital switched from equities to debt.
He talked about trillions of investments coming into America, like never before! But, as he spoke, trillions of dollars left the US equity market in less than an hour.
This is bloody sad.
It’s still under one hour. NASDAQ, which is bigger than the NYSE, is down -3 and -2.3%. So let’s say the market plunged over $2 trillion.
Americans who believe this con artist, must love his comedy more than their money.
Now for the bad news. Trump says he’s “kind” by imposing tariffs half as big as other countries are imposing on America. But those tariffs are part of international agreements. Trump’s tariffs are new. These countries have returned those dollars to fund America’s debt problem — the debts that all American governments agreed to for decades. If those countries retaliate by pulling out their money, the USD will fall more and the costs of the imports that are needed will increase. Also, those countries will now retaliate with new tariffs that will match the US. Worse, they will tariff the products America absolutely needs to function, like electronics needed for military, commercial aircraft, and auto manufacturing. Plants will shut down across the US.
As the first CNBC analyst I heard remarked, this is worse than the worst case of our models.
I agree.
What’s to come now is Trump’s fight against the Fed. The Fed will not back down. Trump will blame the economic catastrophe to follow on the Fed.
The man is unfit to be President.
The proper way to solve America’s problems is to negotiate, not dictate. If Trump had actually written The Art of the Deal, instead of his ghost-writer, he would be managing this matter prudently. As it is, American workers, consumers, and investors will suffer. Don’t underestimate the amount of damage Trump has caused in the past hour. It’s massive.
The Rose garden repartee took place after the markets had closed for the day. He clearly didn’t want any real-time response.
CNBC Reports the US Senate has enough votes To override Trump’s Tariffs on some Canadian Goods.
I cannot imagine Congress would enable Trump to declare war against Canada and Denmark/Greenland.
Could be the reason — the end of Trump’s chaos — that the market is bullish today.
let’s watch the 10-year Treasury Yield (4.15% -4.20%) and June Gold (3167). If yields continue to sink and Gold rise then investors are expecting more chaos from the White House.
Some interesting items in 1440’s Business & Markets column:
> US stock markets close mixed (S&P 500 +0.4%, Dow -0.0%, Nasdaq +0.9%) (More) | Elon Musk ($342B), Mark Zuckerberg ($216B), and Jeff Bezos ($215B) top Forbes annual list of world’s billionaires; list features 3,028 people, up from last year (More)
> Conservative cable channel Newsmax shares rise 179% in second day of trading on NYSE; network now valued at over $16B, twice as much as The New York Times (More) | OpenAI closes $40B funding round, the most ever raised by a private tech company, valuing the ChatGPT maker at $300B (More)
> Restaurant chain Hooters files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, sells company-owned restaurants to franchise group led by company’s founders (More) | Judge rejects Johnson & Johnson’s $10B settlement plan over its talc-based baby powder (More)
I decided that if and when Alexei can do it, there will be a new tab on the website — for trading discussions.
What has bothered me isn’t that some of you are pure traders, it’s that I’m an investor, and my mission is to teach people how to invest successfully. If some people want to gamble their life savings on a 70% move happening in a month, I’m disappointed that they want to use my platform to discuss it.
As a teenager, one summer I worked with a friend helping his real estate salesman father prepare new houses for sale after the builders had finished. We staged the house for sale. At the end of the month, my friend and I each received a large envelope of cash from his father. I didn’t know his father was a heavy bettor on the horse races. The day he paid us, he took us to the track and showed us how to gamble. He didn’t tell us what horse to bet on, but as we kept losing all day and he showed us his winnings, we asked for help. It was the day’s final race, and our remaining cash was a fraction of what we’d earned that month. We were desperate. The father told us it was a large field that he had narrowed his choice to either of two horses. He wouldn’t tell us which one to bet. We saw that one of the horses was a longshot entry in the ‘field.’ When you bet the field, you win if any horse in that group wins. Being no-nothing youngsters, we bet the field to win. Sure enough, down the stretch came two horses well ahead of the pack. An exciting finish, except that our horse was nosed out of the win. That day, we lost every dollar we had worked hard for that month. I never bet on things again. I was a teenager who learned an important life lesson that day.
Years later, my first week at Dominion Securities, as a trainee, I was paired with an Asian rep. Rather than focus on investment sales, however, my associate studied the charts of the most volatile options trading stocks that expired at the end of the week. He was betting pennies per contract on humongous-sized contracts to see if he could strike it rich. There we were on the sales desk of the country’s biggest investment firm, and he was gambling personal money. Needless to say, I never saw him win. But he was hooked.
Many people are also hooked on lottery tickets. I bought one lottery ticket in my life — as a gift to help Italians build a retirement home. The ticket cost me $10 (probably $50 in today’s money). Also, when I lived in the Bahamas, a 3-minute walk from the biggest casino in the Caribbean, I spent many evenings there because of the entertainment– to the point the casino staff got to know me. One day, they observed me at the 25-cent slots with some visiting friends and afterwards called me “the quarter man.”
I know I’m not like most people, but I know that most people would like to be successful investors, and I can help. So, I asked Alexei to provide separate tabs on the website—one for investors and one for pure traders. If and when I have comments about trading, I’ll make them there. Otherwise, I’ll stick to investing-related comments.
My final comment: 95% of pure traders lose. They are betting against the Humongous Bank & Broker casino, the people with the deepest pockets in the world, who use the biggest computers and trading algorithms, and who know every client, every account, and the orders every client places. They hold a license to steal. I’d rather go to the race track or the casino. But, good luck.
With a price recovery in BTC, this week may be the reversal that baz22 is counting on.
Personal mail from a disgusted American
Sorry, I have to vent to someone.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/trump-says-nothing-table-obtaining-greenland
I don’t understand what is to be gained by such rhetoric.
Consider for a moment that you were someone in my position—or maybe someone like me who is an ultra-nationalist. If we really wanted Greenland, we would disparage Denmark’s support of it and offer economic incentives.
Threatening military action is absolutely counterproductive.
Look at Canada. It seems that Trump is essentially galvanizing the Canadian people and uniting them under Carney (whom I assess as a more competent/more dangerous carbon copy of Trudeau).
If we had started talking of tariffs with an underlying level of mutual respect and respect for sovereignty, it would seem that conservatives/Pollievre would have a better shot at obtaining power. Both economies could prosper. It’s not a zero-sum game.
Rant over. No response necessary. Thanks for letting me vent. Back to work.
Personal mail today from the Bahamas
Trump’s Tariffs….. The US tried it in 1938-39, it failed…world more complicated equalization- leveling of tariffs could have been achieved without this collateral damage and ‘bad taste’…. Trump’s comments on Canada – Greenland are beyond stupid, endorsing Russia’s occupation of Ukraine.
His row with WHO-UNESCO etc. sit down and discuss…. Yes US should not be paying 4-5 times more fees than China…agreed.
Trump’s unilateralism and interference are annoying most of the world…. The EU no longer sees the US as friendly…. They will feel it, and Tourism will dry up…
I detest his attitude everyone who doesn’t agree is the village idiot I am going to do it anyway. What if the Native Indians turned on the US government and demanded their lands back? Repay all US Gov gained from us of their lands from seizures etc?
Yes, massive waste in the US…. Don’t blame the world, blame Congress.
Supported but now disillusioned, but the fall will come…. After mid-terms, Congress-Senate will be strangled…
Massive losses in the NASDAQ 100
I attached a list of the 20 biggest losers over 1 week. Sixteen of the 20 are below their 200-day Moving Average. These are serious losses.
Does anyone have a good Index/ETF/Stock Xcorrelation estimator??? I can’t seem to find the one I used to use. Was curious abt the $SPX -vs- BITCOIN Xcorr. Best I can find right now is
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/asset-correlations#analysisResults
using Tickers ‘SPY IBIT’ & ‘Daily’ & ’60 Trading Days’
yielding 0.41
Here’s another one …
https://www.etfscreen.com/corrsym.php?s=SPY
BITCOIN seems to be rolling in ~0.47-0.46
& SPROT 0.36 , 0.28 , 0.11
using ‘Find in page’ tool
I answered in this week’s Navigator Report 13.
I added several BTC-related instruments to the tables and changed the time frames on the technical analysis to 5-, 15-, 30-, and 60-minute and 5-hour time frames that are more relevant to those trading Bitcoin.
Most of the public is opposed to a ‘strategic’ crypto fund, but given that it’s happening, I will follow it objectively now each week.
Wall St will say if you sell you will miss the biggest rallies.
Be very careful. Context. 🥷👇
Intraday breadth rolling over. 12:30pm
The audio discussion of the impact of Trump’s tariffs
https://notebooklm.google.com/notebook/8a8bc9a0-8284-4a74-b490-985726459b07/audio 18:59
I did hours of research and published my report at Help You Invest.
https://billcara.com/help-you-invest/the-impact-of-tariffs-on-the-global-economy-a-comprehensive-analysis/
The audio puts it into words that the average person can easily understand. There is no need to read the nonsense published on social media.
Nice work!
How quickly will tariff inflation lead to deflation after demand collapses? 1 month? 1 qtr? 1 yr? A decade?
The timing of tariff inflation depends on the timing and extent of retaliatory and counter-retaliatory tariffs.
We’ll know more after the close on April 2.
I combined your analysis from Help You Invest entitled “The Impact of Tariffs on the Global Economy: A Comprehensive Analysis” along with the latest report from the Office of United States Trade Representative entitled “USTR Releases 2025 National Trade Estimate Report”. “The NTE is an annual report detailing foreign trade barriers faced by U.S. exporters and USTR’s efforts to reduce those barriers”
https://ustr.gov/about/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2025/march/ustr-releases-2025-national-trade-estimate-report
https://notebooklm.google.com/notebook/4bf801be-907a-455c-af04-debba03a48ca/audio
That ustr document was enlightening. Thanks for posting.
The audio file takes a long time to load. I think many people will not wait that long. Maybe Alexei can do something to speed up the download.
It’s disappointing to me because this is a very good explanation of my report.
Bill — I listened to ~4min of this and then shut it off. I don’t believe this is going to work.
Back in the 60’s there was a story about someone going to brief SECDEF Robert McNamara on whatever and the briefer didn’t provide a paper copy to him.
His response was
“Don’t EVER Do This Again — I CAN READ FASTER THAN YOU CAN TALK”
Kyle
The purpose of the discussion format is make select comments in my 550-page investment report average-person friendly.
The new Trader tab will encourage the type of brief comments we had 15 years ago. I will do what I can to attract new traders to participate.
I am trying to get a university to partner the site and take it over when I reach an age or health situation I can do it no longer.
The US broad market is on the ledge.
Descending Triple Bottom Breakdown yesterday.
To deny Trump’s responsibility is to ignore reality.
What a coincidence. I shared similar sentiment via mag 7 p&f charts
https://www.notyouradvisor.com/p/best-apple-in-the-cart
I’m going to say my peace and then I’m done… I came to this site almost 20 years ago – and worked endlessly and learned like many here… I like to kid around but I am deadly serious on my trades .. I disappoint some, I anger others, as they sometimes anger me.. But I will tell All of you this… I have lost Everything – Twice – because of bad trades… I mean Everything..My house, my wife, my money…… I’ve lived in the basement of the golf club for one year… I’ve lived in a friend’s abandoned house with no running water for Three years… In my truck for Six months…I have severe health issues from Agent Orange in Vietnam in 1971 when I was with the First Cavalry Air Mobile…So regardless of what people may think, Trades are no laughing matter for me…I make it a point of personal pride and being a man not to ridicule or question others trades… If they believe in them, that’s their choice…if they can post them for the world to see, then I honor them and support their courage…Who am I, of all people, to cast stones ?
You have always had my respect. Nam (65-66).
And my Respect as well. I found this site ~this time Apr/May 2005. Been a LOT of Changes since then. Be Well & Stay SAFE. Cheers Kyle
Aloha bazz
When I was in high school I wrote a speech and read it to the class disputing the Domino Theory of that era. Not to resounding applause.
You guys lived it and those who served are the heroes.
All the best
Mahalo nui loa
Tooth paste, soup, soda, cigarettes, orange juice, and utilities led today. Be wary.
https://notebooklm.google.com/notebook/9be2dd18-c3cf-43a6-a2ad-15dc4967e5b9/audio
I heard the last link didn’t work, but I took a photo of the system page after I approved the link to be shared with anybody.
So, I have done it again.
Please someone let me know if it works.
It is working using this link
Yes, the link worked for me also. Thank you.
Big things happened this week in AI.
There will be a cycle bottom, and the cream will rise.
Alphabet (GOOGL), Apple, and NVIDIA are in my Global Best 50.
Ten of the Dow 30 are in this Global Best 50 Company list.
After the market crashes and most of the usual market cheerleaders are despondent, newcomers to securities investing who buy these ten in the Dow 30, download and understand the free Value Line reports, and turn off CNBC and X, will be successful investors.
The people we read who say they have excellent sources about ABC, or whatever, and fail to explain anything, are cheerleaders, destined for failure.
Andrew Williams is out as CEO of New Pacific Metals.
How pathetic that the man who decided to go behind the curtain rather than stay as Chairman of the Board or an officer of the company is still pulling the strings and cannot be sued for the nonsense happening to this company.
Andrew Williams is a good man. He deserves better. He will go on to better career choices.
I still expect Pan American (PAAS) to buy out this company’s assets for a price that will never be properly disclosed.
The new DeepMind Audio covering the Navigator Report 12.
This one is much better. I hope you have 12 minutes to listen.
https://notebooklm.google.com/notebook/9be2dd18-c3cf-43a6-a2ad-15dc4967e5b9
I asked Alexei to remove the report he had posted because there are so many sections that I failed to correct after losing 8 hours of work yesterday and trying to fix it in maybe 4 hours last night — four hours when I wasn’t in the best mood.
The corrected report 2025-12 will be posted tomorrow. This afternoon I have other business to take care of.
The misleading DJIA.
The Dow 30 has 4 up and 26 down, but the index is reading -0.02%, which is flat.
The S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite are more accurate. The $NYA is most accurate.
Let’s see if the dip buyers can row a cruise ship from a stand still
There is no institutional support or breadth on the NYSE or Nasdaq on this bounce as of noon
I have a decision to make.
First, I have not opened this site since 7:19 pm ET on Friday, so if anybody thinks I removed anything or even read anything, they are wrong.
I have been working on Navigator Report 12 since around 2 pm Friday. I worked straight through until 2 am Saturday. Then I was back at it at 6:30 am Saturday until past midnight, with 2 hours off to watch the Leafs in LA. Then I worked from 7 am today until a late lunch. When I returned from lunch, I unintentionally hit a key that crashed my system.
To say I am exhausted is an understatement. To say I think much about the nonsense I see published here today is even less. I couldn’t care less because this website will be changing soon.
The decision I have to make is whether to close the computer now and fail to publish the Navigator Report 12 that I cannot have worked harder to get done and which looked like it would be the best yet. I just lost all the work done for the past nine hours when my system crashed, and I mistakenly reloaded yesterday’s file from the auto recovery file (and deleted the temp file).
I have spent the past two hours checking everything to recover an unsaved file. It was unsaved because my system has a sync problem between the desktop, documents, and the cloud — on files this size, e.g., 27 MB Navigator reports. Now, my latest work has been overwritten.
So, guys, I am not in the mood to laugh at your nonsense—if you believe it, great—because I have a bigger issue. This Navigator Report 12 was to be the last one before I finalize a deal to partner with an organization to manage everything I do. It would have been a report that met my standards for professionalism.
And now I am too tired to finish, but not too tired to wish many of you goodbye. Find your own place to diddle one another.
Goodbye.
Bill — IF YOU Leave it Alone and Let it Roll it will get BACK to the way it used to Be.
JUST LEAVE IT ALONE … You’ll Be Amazed ….
i am 75 year old, I can say with experience that more busy you are, work more and work hard , you will feel younger,energetic and life full fun, thank you for everything you are doing
Whatever you decide, thank you again for these last 20 years or so. Can’t say it enough times.
I’m betting my entire account that BTC begins a mass run next week
It would be great to hear your thesis as to why a mass run is starting. Bitcoin ETF options activity doesn’t suggest any big moves.
That’s the point
Ill
The history data I use is solid
Not sure I get the point. Are you suggesting that your research can move the Bitcoin market?
It can for me..and whoever chooses to enter. I’m a very small fish in a sea of whales… Trump will cave …I believe the Market as a whole will explode up…
Yippee Ki-Yay … These next 4yrs …
IDK … Here’s IBIT … Somewhere along the way I learned the value of drawing TL’s off Donchian-block corners and to NOT Swing My Thing TOOOOO Wildly Before That TL Broke. Just my 2cents.
IBIT … OTOH there’s a HTF Fib-draw that comes into play …
I agree, Trump will cave, they all remember that in midterm Obama’s democrat lost over 100 seat in house, If trump’s republican don’t shape up–they may lose more than 100?????
Your projection was $150K, so go bet your entire account. This lack of professionalism greatly disappoints me after what we accomplished together over many years.
I’m sorry to disappoint you…but I stand by my prediction
BTC $ 150,000 in April, 2025
The Thread Uniting Today, the Peaks of The Great Depression and the Dot-Com Era
Quantum Entanglement Time Machine
https://www.notyouradvisor.com/p/the-thread-uniting-today-and-the
To the Americans who didn’t believe my words a couple of months ago, listen to them from Canada’s Prime Minister.
Ninety seconds into this video, Canada’s Prime Minister says the relationship between Canada, militarily and economically …”is over.”
Canada is the biggest source of tourism to the US, and February is the big month. This February, Canadian travel to the US dropped -70%. I don’t know a Canadian willing to go to the US now, other than to sell a second home or business.
I don’t know a Canadian now who knowingly buys American products at the stores. The boycott is universal.
Mark Carney accurately described the relationship between the two countries when he said, with a pause for effect, “It’s over.” Think about that. He gave a formal speech to the country, telling Canadians, “It’s over” between Canada and the US.
A few months ago, I never would have believed I’d hear those words in my lifetime.
Canada will now turn to the UK, Europe, Australia, and Japan for friendship, trade, and military relationships. In reply, Trump says, “Don’t you dare!” He says it like a child.
Well, Canada will. It will also cut off essential goods and services that Americans need. A week after “Liberation Day,” American factories will be shutting down. It’s all because America voted for a totalitarian state, a dictator who does not believe in the rule of law, who threatens the world with the all-powerful US military.
I have said this before: the only way Trump can win his war is to start and finish a world war. I’m not certain that bonespurs has the guts to go to war against the Allied nations that stand behind Canada and the rule of law.
Hitler did. Musk would try. Let’s see how far Trump will go.
Whatever the case, Americans will face a tough few months, but I don’t think they are ready to tell Canada that “it’s over.”