I keep reading about Paul Volcker this and that. I came to America right as he was raising rates in the early 80s as a kid. Correct me if I am wrong, but wasn’t he late and only reacted after the house was on fire? It wasn’t like he knocked on the Presidents door and said you may have a problem and let’s get ahead of it.
He saved America from inflation, AFTER it was already raging and there was appetite for an emergency move.
Same thing with Powell and todays Fed. They cannot and don’t have permission to fight inflation for real. The outstanding debt is like California brush (tinder) and it would all go up in smoke if they raised rates high enough to fight inflation.
Inflation in America started around 1965 and didn’t really get serious until the oil shock of the 70s; then we had double-digit inflation in 1978 and 1979 under the Carter administration; this was a campaign platform and a prelude to Reagan’s victory in the 1980 election.
I was 21 years old that year and amazed by it all; gold hit a record in Jan 1980 around 875 an ounce. Not long later we saw yields on 20- and 30-year bonds at 12%. Mortgage rates, forget about it.
Today’s Fed cooked themselves into a corner. Many believe that YCC on the 10-yr is next, (a less noticeable form of QE) which will influence the longer-dated tenors and indirectly mortgages (to bring them lower and Make America Great Again).
The way to riches in biotech is to be a chemist that invented the compound. I have family at big biotech and pharma. speculating on compounds is harder than junior miners.
Disagree with you NYUGrad re earnings; earnings still very much watched on Wall St; case in point, PBF Energy reported this morning (loss of 2.84 a share) shares off over 10% overnight on that report. See similar action for other SP companies over time.
Hi goldbug58 I was replying on a macro view to Dave’s comment
Look at different point of view
inflation will raise corporations earning
stock price is base on earning so naturally market will move higher because of inflation
He was making macro correlation to inflation causing earnings to lift and thus markets would lift.
yes earnings matter for an individual company. Just look at RDDT or APP yesterday.
My point is more the entire market going up or down. That is not dependent on individual earnings and impact from inflation all adding up to tail winds raising the entire stock market.
That is more dependent on the liquidity of this “Giant Mindless Robot” bidding the largest weight stocks that make majority of the market’s move up and down via
Gary Marcus is a must subscribe. – This post is a must read – This video is also good. He compares OpenAI to being overvalued like WeWork https://youtu.be/r8cpy1Gxe0o. – I just ordered his book: “Taming Silicon Valley: How We Can Ensure That AI Works for Us”
Check out my post from over a year ago warning inflation fight mumbo jumbo was all bullshit.
And here is a chart of all debt. Paul Volker raised rates to fight inflation in the 1980s. Look where debt was then vs now. The fed cannot fight inflation. They cannot raise rates above the true rate of inflation to kill it like Volker did. So they jaw bone and lie and say it is moderating.
Look at different point of view inflation will raise corporations earning stock price is base on earning so naturally market will move higher because of inflation it also bring more revenue for government so deficit will go down and government won’t be borrowing too much usually inflation effect rich people more than others
Check out the PDF paper as well in the link. There is an invisible passive bid for the largest companies. Via etf Corp buy backs, and employee purchases.
Ex when I was as at Adobe the look back window for their stock purchase program was 2 yrs. So twice a year the % of paycheck set aside to buy Adobe stock would exercise at the lesser price between the program buy date or the price going back 2 years ago!!! Oh and before I forget. 8% discount in addition to the lessor of the two prices. So 50k employees all locked and loaded to buy twice a year. That is the stock compensation expense component you always read about. Imagine that at NVDA
It was an IQ test if you should work there. Now extrapolate across mag 7. Then look at the ETFs weighting and double dipping across 401k “managed Funds”
wall street telling us that low ineptness rate will drive small cap stock,they prove themself wrong yesterday, stock or real estate or other access dont move base on number, they move base on what big guy think, they find best way to scam general public and make money and legally, that what happens in 2008 financial crisis, long tern investment is snake oil that are selling, yes 10% of stock will do good long term , I can list of tock I use to own and got stop out in BIOTECH, they are near $1 and some after doing reverse split and get to $5
Like casino, winner of $5000 will tell all hi friend and relative that he won,but 99% who lost keep quiet to save them embarrassment,of losing in stock market, friend a navy veteran started trading stock, he has all setup in his living room and he and his wife excited, six month late I visited and I see no computer in his living room, I ask about it, his wife say he threw all in garage,
and yes, you can’t beat them join them,, In those 2008 days I bought a house to slip over , banker, mortgage broker and assessor all work together price went up got second mortgage, made only one payment on origin loan and stop paying, I made lots of money ,bank foreclosed it at half the price,I brought it back in a name of trust,today it has value of more than three time and now i am selling it,price is too high
If have a lunch break today, I challenge you to listen to this video. I made a post about it today. Hope it can positively impact you. https://youtu.be/D35oXj2uLHU
The “Stock Spotlight” Series are designed for you to enjoy on your own or with family and kids, making it a fun way to learn about the stock market through fundamental and technical analysis.
The Study Guide in the paid section is another great resource for family learning. Enjoy!
The NotebookLM discussion is available to all subscribers, both free and paid. Stock charts and analysis are exclusive to Premium Subscribers.
Bill, I wanted to thank you for the information that you share in this week’s Global Market Navigator and the previous weeks’ WIR. Truly a wealth of invaluable knowledge and information. I am in awe and thanks that you are able to create this 300 + pages of detailed information on a weekly basis. Just wanted to confirm – this is what you do in your semi-retired time :-).
To the rest of the billcara.com community, thanks to y’all for graciously sharing your insights and thoughts.
‘No Limit’ Hedge Fund Fees Are Eating Up Their Clients’ Gains – Bloomberg In 2023, the main hedge fund at billionaire Dmitry Balyasny’s eponymous firm notched a gross return of 15.2%. Investors walked away with a gain of just 2.8%. The rest they paid in fees — more than $768 million to be exact — covering everything from trader compensation to mobile-phone service. That parceling out of costs is one of the most coveted perks of running a multistrategy hedge fund. Investors are so eager to pony up money that they effectively write a blank check… https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2025-hedge-fund-investment-fees/
What a joke. This is 100% deja vu from dot com. When I was at NYU Stern, cutting class and day trading ask jeeves, AOL, Compaq and gateway computers.
Vividly remember meeting a women so bubbly on a flight from SFO to JFK and she was so excited she worked at pets.com. I wonder what she does today?
“GameStop is considering investing in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, sources say”
I keep reading about Paul Volcker this and that. I came to America right as he was raising rates in the early 80s as a kid. Correct me if I am wrong, but wasn’t he late and only reacted after the house was on fire? It wasn’t like he knocked on the Presidents door and said you may have a problem and let’s get ahead of it.
He saved America from inflation, AFTER it was already raging and there was appetite for an emergency move.
Same thing with Powell and todays Fed. They cannot and don’t have permission to fight inflation for real. The outstanding debt is like California brush (tinder) and it would all go up in smoke if they raised rates high enough to fight inflation.
Am I the only one that sees this?
Inflation in America started around 1965 and didn’t really get serious until the oil shock of the 70s; then we had double-digit inflation in 1978 and 1979 under the Carter administration; this was a campaign platform and a prelude to Reagan’s victory in the 1980 election.
I was 21 years old that year and amazed by it all; gold hit a record in Jan 1980 around 875 an ounce. Not long later we saw yields on 20- and 30-year bonds at 12%. Mortgage rates, forget about it.
Today’s Fed cooked themselves into a corner. Many believe that YCC on the 10-yr is next, (a less noticeable form of QE) which will influence the longer-dated tenors and indirectly mortgages (to bring them lower and Make America Great Again).
They are stuck. Jawbone forever
West Pharmaceuticals a real widow maker; off 124 or 38% to 198; another reason I don’t buy stocks at 300+ a share; nice 1-day haircut though. WST.
The way to riches in biotech is to be a chemist that invented the compound. I have family at big biotech and pharma. speculating on compounds is harder than junior miners.
$HOG Harley Davidson – will it get defended a third time at this trendline?
$INTC bounce from 19 to 24+ in a week.
Advm
Kicking the tires on JAZZ.
Disagree with you NYUGrad re earnings; earnings still very much watched on Wall St; case in point, PBF Energy reported this morning (loss of 2.84 a share) shares off over 10% overnight on that report. See similar action for other SP companies over time.
Hi
goldbug58 I was replying on a macro view to Dave’s comment
He was making macro correlation to inflation causing earnings to lift and thus markets would lift.
yes earnings matter for an individual company. Just look at RDDT or APP yesterday.
My point is more the entire market going up or down. That is not dependent on individual earnings and impact from inflation all adding up to tail winds raising the entire stock market.
That is more dependent on the liquidity of this “Giant Mindless Robot” bidding the largest weight stocks that make majority of the market’s move up and down via
Corp buy backs
Indices
ETFs
Mutual Funds
Employee stock purchase programs
Cheers!
Breaking: OpenAI’s efforts at pure scaling have hit a wall
Gary Marcus
Feb 12, 2025
https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/breaking-openais-efforts-at-pure
Gary Marcus is a must subscribe.
– This post is a must read
– This video is also good. He compares OpenAI to being overvalued like WeWork https://youtu.be/r8cpy1Gxe0o.
– I just ordered his book: “Taming Silicon Valley: How We Can Ensure That AI Works for Us”
https://youtu.be/5YvP3oKBlLM
If this wall is a real thing, that would be bad news for the AI capex and mag 7 narrative.
https://www.tipranks.com/news/the-chase-to-catch-nvidia-is-fading-says-top-investor-about-amd-stock
Check out my post from over a year ago warning inflation fight mumbo jumbo was all bullshit.
And here is a chart of all debt. Paul Volker raised rates to fight inflation in the 1980s. Look where debt was then vs now. The fed cannot fight inflation. They cannot raise rates above the true rate of inflation to kill it like Volker did. So they jaw bone and lie and say it is moderating.
Keep buying mag 7 at your own risk
https://www.notyouradvisor.com/p/inflation-is-not-dead-s-and-p-500
Look at different point of view
inflation will raise corporations earning
stock price is base on earning so naturally market will move higher because of inflation
it also bring more revenue for government so deficit will go down and government won’t be borrowing too much
usually inflation effect rich people more than others
Stock prices are no longer based on earnings.
Check out the PDF paper as well in the link. There is an invisible passive bid for the largest companies. Via etf Corp buy backs, and employee purchases.
Ex when I was as at Adobe the look back window for their stock purchase program was 2 yrs. So twice a year the % of paycheck set aside to buy Adobe stock would exercise at the lesser price between the program buy date or the price going back 2 years ago!!! Oh and before I forget. 8% discount in addition to the lessor of the two prices. So 50k employees all locked and loaded to buy twice a year. That is the stock compensation expense component you always read about. Imagine that at NVDA
It was an IQ test if you should work there. Now extrapolate across mag 7. Then look at the ETFs weighting and double dipping across 401k “managed Funds”
https://www.notyouradvisor.com/p/why-stocks-only-go-up-a-ponzi-deep
Earnings? Pshhhh. That is so 1980s
wall street telling us that low ineptness rate will drive small cap stock,they prove themself wrong yesterday, stock or real estate or other access dont move base on number, they move base on what big guy think, they find best way to scam general public and make money and legally, that what happens in 2008 financial crisis, long tern investment is snake oil that are selling, yes 10% of stock will do good long term , I can list of tock I use to own and got stop out in BIOTECH, they are near $1 and some after doing reverse split and get to $5
Like casino, winner of $5000 will tell all hi friend and relative that he won,but 99% who lost keep quiet to save them embarrassment,of losing in stock market, friend a navy veteran started trading stock, he has all setup in his living room and he and his wife excited, six month late I visited and I see no computer in his living room, I ask about it, his wife say he threw all in garage,
and yes, you can’t beat them join them,, In those 2008 days I bought a house to slip over , banker, mortgage broker and assessor all work together
price went up got second mortgage, made only one payment on origin loan and stop paying, I made lots of money ,bank foreclosed it at half the price,I brought it back in a name of trust,today it has value of more than three time and now i am selling it,price is too high
2008 wants to say hi! Mortgage rot is starting to smell. You all better get your house in order. “Mark to market”
https://youtu.be/jh4v2GtBrZ0
Delinquencies starting to mount up
Is this a ‘ Carvana ‘ moment, aka 2023, for SMCI. ?
Threw in the towel on vktx
Anyone have an AI robot yet?
If have a lunch break today, I challenge you to listen to this video.
I made a post about it today. Hope it can positively impact you.
https://youtu.be/D35oXj2uLHU
Will it be allowed to hit 4.7%??? Today?
Nike Searching for Second Wind $NKE 🎧 (Feb 12)
Stock Spotlight
Preface
The “Stock Spotlight” Series are designed for you to enjoy on your own or with family and kids, making it a fun way to learn about the stock market through fundamental and technical analysis.
The Study Guide in the paid section is another great resource for family learning. Enjoy!
The NotebookLM discussion is available to all subscribers, both free and paid. Stock charts and analysis are exclusive to Premium Subscribers.
https://www.notyouradvisor.com/p/nike-is-in-deep-trouble-nke-feb-12
The CPI aka CP-Lie is out. 10 yr spiked higher in an instant to 4.6%! Futures selling off. Good luck today
How Private Equity Ate Britain (Bloomberg Originals)
https://youtu.be/hIyl5SI6OL0
Bill, I wanted to thank you for the information that you share in this week’s Global Market Navigator and the previous weeks’ WIR. Truly a wealth of invaluable knowledge and information. I am in awe and thanks that you are able to create this 300 + pages of detailed information on a weekly basis. Just wanted to confirm – this is what you do in your semi-retired time :-).
To the rest of the billcara.com community, thanks to y’all for graciously sharing your insights and thoughts.
https://www.stocktitan.net/news/SMCI/supermicro-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2025-preliminary-34d5m3hvp06q.html
Another article today: The Battle for Our Minds
‘No Limit’ Hedge Fund Fees Are Eating Up Their Clients’ Gains – Bloomberg
In 2023, the main hedge fund at billionaire Dmitry Balyasny’s eponymous firm notched a gross return of 15.2%.
Investors walked away with a gain of just 2.8%.
The rest they paid in fees — more than $768 million to be exact — covering everything from trader compensation to mobile-phone service.
That parceling out of costs is one of the most coveted perks of running a multistrategy hedge fund. Investors are so eager to pony up money that they effectively write a blank check…
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2025-hedge-fund-investment-fees/
It’s only a matter of time when Congress understands the pain caused by their being bought-and-paid-for by HB&B,
But at the bottom. 1 guy will go to jail. Settlements. Then the next bubble
Devon Energy; potential W pattern in play; FD: no position.
If you like oil, Murphy may still have some upside momentum: FD: trade position here.
New Pacific Metals, remains in the 1.15-1.25 rectangle since 18 Dec; FD: holding some here, looking for a possible breakout in March.
I sure hope so!