Yep…dumped ALL BTC Related early, early am…. No loss on GME…5% On MSTR….APVO made up for it…had taken large profits on CRWV yesterday… Like I say, I like as few stocks as possible to hold ..good advice from Stanley Druckenmiller
I thought the volume on NVDA was high at 335 Million shares traded. Then I looked at their Mkt Cap of 2.69 Trillion, at 102 a share, seems they have some 26 Billion+ shares out. I’d not own this anyway at any price and the CEO seems to be a jerk.
Yes -40.00 very true, closed that day -34.00 and a lot of brokerages couldn’t post negative quotes. Some thought they were buying a barrel of oil for a dollar and it was actually much much lower; on 1000-bbl contracts they all got ….. ‘d
I am proud of you for looking at this objectively. I also believe China is in top gear accelerating as fast as they can to become the next US. This is all leading up to another global war and a fight for reserve status.
Keep in mind China’s middle class population is larger than all of America’s population. I suspect they will enrich their own and the days of China making garbage sneakers in sweatshops is over. They have already began offloading this type of labor out of China.
I was going to do a CCP report on this subject, but I disagree. I believe China under the CCP has no middle class left and the CCP is working on collapsing the upper class, which is mostly CCP members. I also have big doubts about the future of the CCP PLA military as well as doubts about Xi’s future.
Way back during covid19 I posted here how China lost 300-400mil in population due to covid and due to the CCP census fraud where the outlying rural areas are off the grid uncounted.
What I have no doubts about is the West’s propensity to give up and capitulate to the CCP.
BOTTOM LINE: The CCP has no credibility on any data.
CHINA POPULATION: TFR + AI =890MIL NOT THE CCP 1.4BIL
TFR=Total Fertility Rate
Trends from 1990 to 2020 show China population in decline.
Using AI and official statistics, we discovered that China’s actual population is 37% to 50% lower than the reported 1.4 billion. A simple comparison of fertility rates and population trends between China and India revealed an unexplained 37% discrepancy. Findings suggest that China’s official demographic data is significantly overstated—and now, AI agrees.
Now we’re making some progress … MCGA … When you guys start wearing RED ‘Make Canada Great Again’ caps then we’ll know you’re serious about all this. Cheers
NYUGrad — Don’t know about the population deal BUT WRT Technology we’re in a race. Google “space plane x37b china” to get some comparison. Let me think about how much more I can say on this one.
Except for Autos and Auto Parts tariffs, Trump decided to keep the rest of the USMCA agreement intact. I suppose that’s a win for Canada and Mexico until negotiations begin for a new USMCA.
Until Trump respects the sovereignty of these trading partners, I don’t expect a positive outcome of any international trade talks between the three countries. In Canada’s case, Trump has already caused a move between governments in Canada, the UK, Europe, Australia, and Japan to sign trade agreements that render a new USMCA impossible as long as Trump is President.
Canadian workers, like those in any country, want to work without regard to politics. But Canadian consumers and snowbird tourists, and real estate investors are a different breed. Trump and MAGA have broken the relationship. It will not be fixable until Trump and MAGA are historical footnotes.
Steve Liesman (CNBC) says other country tariff rates listed by Trump are materially untrue. Some of the differences are striking. This will be big news tomorrow.
Liesman says that the US is now the highest tariff country in the world by far.
investors have decided to largely quit the equity markets. Trumpers will support the equity market to try to put lipstick on this pig. But I still feel the equity market could go into a ‘no bid’ free-fall.
Markets will always find a low level and then bounce. During the Great Depression 1930s, there were many large counter-trend rallies, but the economic damage was so severe at the time, it took over ten years to regain stability. The same could happen now. Countries will not trust America for many years. They will sign trade agreements that exclude the US. American business people and tourists will face ‘Yankee Go Home’ signs now.
Countries worldwide will sell their holdings of US debt. The USD will weaken a lot, as a result, so imports will be more costly based on currency differential as well as the tariff costs. Ultimately this problem may lead to a currency war, shooting the price of Gold to extremes.
I have no doubt that the US will become stronger domestically in maybe 5 to 10 years, but theirs will be a high cost lifestyle. Already the US cannot compete in manufacturing high value products with $33 labor rates in competition with equivalent value products from abroad costing as low as US$7 labor rates. But in less than 10 years, robots will replace humans, so the wage gap will be insignificant. The importance of this cannot be overstressed, which is why I have a separate section on AI and Robotics in my weekly Navigator Report.
The reaction from international countries and investors is as anticipated. It’s quite negative. That same negativity will soon pervade America as money gets tight, prices go up, and jobs get lost. In last week’s Navigator Report, I called it the start of the Age of Austerity. Americans have never lived like people in much of the rest of the world. That’s going to change. In my reports I projected an average annual total return from investments to plunge from the 15-18% range that was enjoyed but is now history to be replaced by 5-8% returns.
With returns that low, why take the risk in equities. Investors are already moving to Treasuries in various countries.
Erased 8 hours of trade in one 5 min bar Per CNBC
The President signed an aggressive and far-reaching “reciprocal tariff” policy at the White House.
The plan imposes steep tariff rates on many countries, including 34% on China, 20% on the European Union, 46% on Vietnam and 32% on Taiwan.
The White House clarified to CNBC’s Eamon Javers that the tariff rate on Beijing comes in addition to existing 20% tariffs on Chinese imports, meaning the true tariff rate on China is 54%.
S&P ES catching a bid around 5515. Let’s see if it holds overnight. I am a little relieved by what is happening. I thought I was going to crazy today watching the market soar when consumer spending is on record as weak and tariffs going into effect. Sat on my hands all day watching my short positions lose money but stuck to my gut. Tomorrow will be a good day for my account.
Took cash to 64% yesterday in the trading account. The continuous rise in gold has taken my exposure there up to 16% of net worth; I’m usually around 7-10%.
In 45 minutes, the longer the idiot President talked, the US 10-year Treasury yield dropped 20 basis points as capital switched from equities to debt.
He talked about trillions of investments coming into America in the next few years, like never before! But, as he spoke, trillions of dollars left the US equity market in less than an hour.
It’s still under one hour. NASDAQ, which is bigger than the NYSE, is down -3. The NYSE is down -2.3% in after-market hours trading. So, the market has plunged over $2 trillion.
Americans who believe this con artist, must love his comedy more than their money. Now for the bad news.
Trump says he’s a “kind” person by imposing tariffs half as big as other countries are imposing on America. But those tariffs are part of international agreements. The US agreed to them, including Trump’s first administration. Trump’s tariffs today are new. Trump is telling half the story, and screwing that up to boot. He ignores the international trade in services, which are heavily in the US’ favor. Moreover, these countries with trade surpluseswith the US have returned those dollars in buying US government debt that has been funding America’s debt problem — the debts that all American governments have acknowledged and agreed to for decades. If those countries retaliate by pulling out their money, the USD will fall a lot and the costs of needed imports, e.g., car parts and electronics, will increase. Also, many of those countries will now retaliate with new tariffs that will match the US. Worse, they will tariff the products America absolutely needs to function, like electronics needed for the military, and commercial aircraft and auto manufacturing. Plants will sbe forced to shut down across the US.
As the first CNBC analyst I heard remarked, this is worse than the worst case of our models.
I agree.
What’s to come now is Trump’s fight against the Fed. The Fed will not back down in its inflation fight, and Trump’s tariffs will ensure higher inflation. For the economic catastrophe to follow, Trump will blame the Fed. The names he will call the Fed chair will be right from the gutter.
The man is unfit to be President.
The proper way to solve America’s problems is to negotiate, not dictate. If Trump had actually written The Art of the Deal, instead of his ghost-writer, he would be managing this matter prudently. As it is, American workers, consumers, and investors will suffer. Don’t underestimate the amount of damage Trump has caused in the past hour. It’s massive.
Could be the reason — the end of Trump’s chaos — that the market is bullish today.
let’s watch the 10-year Treasury Yield (4.15% -4.20%) and June Gold (3167). If yields continue to sink and Gold rise then investors are expecting more chaos from the White House.
Some interesting items in 1440’s Business & Markets column:
>US stock markets close mixed (S&P 500 +0.4%, Dow -0.0%, Nasdaq +0.9%) (More) | Elon Musk ($342B), Mark Zuckerberg ($216B), and Jeff Bezos ($215B) top Forbes annual list of world’s billionaires; list features 3,028 people, up from last year (More) >Conservative cable channel Newsmax shares rise 179% in second day of trading on NYSE; network now valued at over $16B, twice as much as The New York Times (More) | OpenAI closes $40B funding round, the most ever raised by a private tech company, valuing the ChatGPT maker at $300B (More) >Restaurant chain Hooters files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, sells company-owned restaurants to franchise group led by company’s founders (More) | Judge rejectsJohnson & Johnson’s $10B settlement plan over its talc-based baby powder (More)
I decided that if and when Alexei can do it, there will be a new tab on the website — for trading discussions.
What has bothered me isn’t that some of you are pure traders, it’s that I’m an investor, and my mission is to teach people how to invest successfully. If some people want to gamble their life savings on a 70% move happening in a month, I’m disappointed that they want to use my platform to discuss it.
As a teenager, one summer I worked with a friend helping his real estate salesman father prepare new houses for sale after the builders had finished. We staged the house for sale. At the end of the month, my friend and I each received a large envelope of cash from his father. I didn’t know his father was a heavy bettor on the horse races. The day he paid us, he took us to the track and showed us how to gamble. He didn’t tell us what horse to bet on, but as we kept losing all day and he showed us his winnings, we asked for help. It was the day’s final race, and our remaining cash was a fraction of what we’d earned that month. We were desperate. The father told us it was a large field that he had narrowed his choice to either of two horses. He wouldn’t tell us which one to bet. We saw that one of the horses was a longshot entry in the ‘field.’ When you bet the field, you win if any horse in that group wins. Being no-nothing youngsters, we bet the field to win. Sure enough, down the stretch came two horses well ahead of the pack. An exciting finish, except that our horse was nosed out of the win. That day, we lost every dollar we had worked hard for that month. I never bet on things again. I was a teenager who learned an important life lesson that day.
Years later, my first week at Dominion Securities, as a trainee, I was paired with an Asian rep. Rather than focus on investment sales, however, my associate studied the charts of the most volatile options trading stocks that expired at the end of the week. He was betting pennies per contract on humongous-sized contracts to see if he could strike it rich. There we were on the sales desk of the country’s biggest investment firm, and he was gambling personal money. Needless to say, I never saw him win. But he was hooked.
Many people are also hooked on lottery tickets. I bought one lottery ticket in my life — as a gift to help Italians build a retirement home. The ticket cost me $10 (probably $50 in today’s money). Also, when I lived in the Bahamas, a 3-minute walk from the biggest casino in the Caribbean, I spent many evenings there because of the entertainment– to the point the casino staff got to know me. One day, they observed me at the 25-cent slots with some visiting friends and afterwards called me “the quarter man.”
I know I’m not like most people, but I know that most people would like to be successful investors, and I can help. So, I asked Alexei to provide separate tabs on the website—one for investors and one for pure traders. If and when I have comments about trading, I’ll make them there. Otherwise, I’ll stick to investing-related comments.
My final comment: 95% of pure traders lose. They are betting against the Humongous Bank & Broker casino, the people with the deepest pockets in the world, who use the biggest computers and trading algorithms, and who know every client, every account, and the orders every client places. They hold a license to steal. I’d rather go to the race track or the casino. But, good luck.
I don’t understand what is to be gained by such rhetoric.
Consider for a moment that you were someone in my position—or maybe someone like me who is an ultra-nationalist. If we really wanted Greenland, we would disparage Denmark’s support of it and offer economic incentives.
Threatening military action is absolutely counterproductive.
Look at Canada. It seems that Trump is essentially galvanizing the Canadian people and uniting them under Carney (whom I assess as a more competent/more dangerous carbon copy of Trudeau).
If we had started talking of tariffs with an underlying level of mutual respect and respect for sovereignty, it would seem that conservatives/Pollievre would have a better shot at obtaining power. Both economies could prosper. It’s not a zero-sum game.
Rant over. No response necessary. Thanks for letting me vent. Back to work.
Trump’s Tariffs….. The US tried it in 1938-39, it failed…world more complicated equalization- leveling of tariffs could have been achieved without this collateral damage and ‘bad taste’…. Trump’s comments on Canada – Greenland are beyond stupid, endorsing Russia’s occupation of Ukraine.
His row with WHO-UNESCO etc. sit down and discuss…. Yes US should not be paying 4-5 times more fees than China…agreed.
Trump’s unilateralism and interference are annoying most of the world…. The EU no longer sees the US as friendly…. They will feel it, and Tourism will dry up…
I detest his attitude everyone who doesn’t agree is the village idiot I am going to do it anyway. What if the Native Indians turned on the US government and demanded their lands back? Repay all US Gov gained from us of their lands from seizures etc?
Yes, massive waste in the US…. Don’t blame the world, blame Congress.
Supported but now disillusioned, but the fall will come…. After mid-terms, Congress-Senate will be strangled…
Does anyone have a good Index/ETF/Stock Xcorrelation estimator??? I can’t seem to find the one I used to use. Was curious abt the $SPX -vs- BITCOIN Xcorr. Best I can find right now is
I added several BTC-related instruments to the tables and changed the time frames on the technical analysis to 5-, 15-, 30-, and 60-minute and 5-hour time frames that are more relevant to those trading Bitcoin.
Most of the public is opposed to a ‘strategic’ crypto fund, but given that it’s happening, I will follow it objectively now each week.
I combined your analysis from Help You Invest entitled “The Impact of Tariffs on the Global Economy: A Comprehensive Analysis” along with the latest report from the Office of United States Trade Representative entitled “USTR Releases 2025 National Trade Estimate Report”. “The NTE is an annual report detailing foreign trade barriers faced by U.S. exporters and USTR’s efforts to reduce those barriers” https://ustr.gov/about/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2025/march/ustr-releases-2025-national-trade-estimate-report
This is a test.
I am making changes to the website to accommodate the various interests here.
Kaimu Blog — Where did it go????
The life lesson Mr. Market taught many investors and traders today.
Your stocks are not your children. Stocks are prices and we buy and sell prices.
The Mag-7 lost over $950 billion in market cap today.
Institutions are committed to holding positions in most of these stocks, but the average person was not forced to take a loss.
Think about the edge we have.
Yep…dumped ALL BTC Related early, early am…. No loss on GME…5% On MSTR….APVO made up for it…had taken large profits on CRWV yesterday… Like I say, I like as few stocks as possible to hold ..good advice from Stanley Druckenmiller
I thought the volume on NVDA was high at 335 Million shares traded. Then I looked at their Mkt Cap of 2.69 Trillion, at 102 a share, seems they have some 26 Billion+ shares out. I’d not own this anyway at any price and the CEO seems to be a jerk.
NVDA — I was just watching ‘Aliens’ … “in the Box 5×5” …
As my old mentor uses to say….”NEVER TRY AND CATCH A FALLING PIANO. LET IT BOUNCE FIRST”….That is ALL….
https://youtu.be/mOAdCU_o0XE?si=mhcEBHJQEYqrfo7J
Using bispecific antibodies…think SMMT
Their platform is 100% company owned
SMMT is holding up in this volatility.
Trading today is a live-action learning lab: Do your homework.
Substantial damage in refiners and oilfield services.
Been saying that for months..LOL…Stay Clear.
Remember the Swing low in oil is -40.00
Yes -40.00 very true, closed that day -34.00 and a lot of brokerages couldn’t post negative quotes. Some thought they were buying a barrel of oil for a dollar and it was actually much much lower; on 1000-bbl contracts they all got ….. ‘d
‘When the time comes to buy, you won’t want to’.
–Walter Deemer
I have come to a new understanding of Trump.
I am proud of you for looking at this objectively. I also believe China is in top gear accelerating as fast as they can to become the next US. This is all leading up to another global war and a fight for reserve status.
Keep in mind China’s middle class population is larger than all of America’s population. I suspect they will enrich their own and the days of China making garbage sneakers in sweatshops is over. They have already began offloading this type of labor out of China.
I was going to do a CCP report on this subject, but I disagree. I believe China under the CCP has no middle class left and the CCP is working on collapsing the upper class, which is mostly CCP members. I also have big doubts about the future of the CCP PLA military as well as doubts about Xi’s future.
Way back during covid19 I posted here how China lost 300-400mil in population due to covid and due to the CCP census fraud where the outlying rural areas are off the grid uncounted.
What I have no doubts about is the West’s propensity to give up and capitulate to the CCP.
BOTTOM LINE: The CCP has no credibility on any data.
CHINA POPULATION: TFR + AI =890MIL NOT THE CCP 1.4BIL
TFR=Total Fertility Rate
Trends from 1990 to 2020 show China population in decline.
Using AI and official statistics, we discovered that China’s actual population is 37% to 50% lower than the reported 1.4 billion. A simple comparison of fertility rates and population trends between China and India revealed an unexplained 37% discrepancy. Findings suggest that China’s official demographic data is significantly overstated—and now, AI agrees.
LINK: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ftcLM3502_8
Now we’re making some progress … MCGA … When you guys start wearing RED ‘Make Canada Great Again’ caps then we’ll know you’re serious about all this. Cheers
NYUGrad — Don’t know about the population deal BUT WRT Technology we’re in a race. Google “space plane x37b china” to get some comparison. Let me think about how much more I can say on this one.
Circuit Breaker Levels just an fyi:
There are three levels of market-wide circuit breakers:
Level 1 (7% decline): Halts trading for 15 minutes if the decline occurs before 3:25 p.m. EST.
Level 2 (13% decline): Halts trading for 15 minutes if the decline occurs before 3:25 p.m. EST.
Level 3 (20% decline): Halts trading for the remainder of the trading day, regardless of the time.
Except for Autos and Auto Parts tariffs, Trump decided to keep the rest of the USMCA agreement intact. I suppose that’s a win for Canada and Mexico until negotiations begin for a new USMCA.
Until Trump respects the sovereignty of these trading partners, I don’t expect a positive outcome of any international trade talks between the three countries. In Canada’s case, Trump has already caused a move between governments in Canada, the UK, Europe, Australia, and Japan to sign trade agreements that render a new USMCA impossible as long as Trump is President.
Canadian workers, like those in any country, want to work without regard to politics. But Canadian consumers and snowbird tourists, and real estate investors are a different breed. Trump and MAGA have broken the relationship. It will not be fixable until Trump and MAGA are historical footnotes.
The Question is, Will Financial Markets or Workers and Consumers Decide the Tariff War?
Steve Liesman (CNBC) says other country tariff rates listed by Trump are materially untrue. Some of the differences are striking. This will be big news tomorrow.
Liesman says that the US is now the highest tariff country in the world by far.
If true, let’s hear from Congress.
Government Bonds Worldwide are Booming.
investors have decided to largely quit the equity markets. Trumpers will support the equity market to try to put lipstick on this pig. But I still feel the equity market could go into a ‘no bid’ free-fall.
Markets will always find a low level and then bounce. During the Great Depression 1930s, there were many large counter-trend rallies, but the economic damage was so severe at the time, it took over ten years to regain stability. The same could happen now. Countries will not trust America for many years. They will sign trade agreements that exclude the US. American business people and tourists will face ‘Yankee Go Home’ signs now.
Countries worldwide will sell their holdings of US debt. The USD will weaken a lot, as a result, so imports will be more costly based on currency differential as well as the tariff costs. Ultimately this problem may lead to a currency war, shooting the price of Gold to extremes.
I have no doubt that the US will become stronger domestically in maybe 5 to 10 years, but theirs will be a high cost lifestyle. Already the US cannot compete in manufacturing high value products with $33 labor rates in competition with equivalent value products from abroad costing as low as US$7 labor rates. But in less than 10 years, robots will replace humans, so the wage gap will be insignificant. The importance of this cannot be overstressed, which is why I have a separate section on AI and Robotics in my weekly Navigator Report.
The reaction from international countries and investors is as anticipated. It’s quite negative. That same negativity will soon pervade America as money gets tight, prices go up, and jobs get lost. In last week’s Navigator Report, I called it the start of the Age of Austerity. Americans have never lived like people in much of the rest of the world. That’s going to change. In my reports I projected an average annual total return from investments to plunge from the 15-18% range that was enjoyed but is now history to be replaced by 5-8% returns.
With returns that low, why take the risk in equities. Investors are already moving to Treasuries in various countries.
Erased 8 hours of trade in one 5 min bar
Per CNBC
trend….so far….
S&P ES catching a bid around 5515. Let’s see if it holds overnight. I am a little relieved by what is happening. I thought I was going to crazy today watching the market soar when consumer spending is on record as weak and tariffs going into effect. Sat on my hands all day watching my short positions lose money but stuck to my gut. Tomorrow will be a good day for my account.
Took cash to 64% yesterday in the trading account. The continuous rise in gold has taken my exposure there up to 16% of net worth; I’m usually around 7-10%.
https://www.notyouradvisor.com/p/is-gold-a-safe-haven-or-a-canary
OMG. The biggest sh*t-show imaginable!
In 45 minutes, the longer the idiot President talked, the US 10-year Treasury yield dropped 20 basis points as capital switched from equities to debt.
He talked about trillions of investments coming into America in the next few years, like never before! But, as he spoke, trillions of dollars left the US equity market in less than an hour.
This is bloody sad.
It’s still under one hour. NASDAQ, which is bigger than the NYSE, is down -3. The NYSE is down -2.3% in after-market hours trading. So, the market has plunged over $2 trillion.
Americans who believe this con artist, must love his comedy more than their money. Now for the bad news.
Trump says he’s a “kind” person by imposing tariffs half as big as other countries are imposing on America. But those tariffs are part of international agreements. The US agreed to them, including Trump’s first administration. Trump’s tariffs today are new. Trump is telling half the story, and screwing that up to boot. He ignores the international trade in services, which are heavily in the US’ favor. Moreover, these countries with trade surpluseswith the US have returned those dollars in buying US government debt that has been funding America’s debt problem — the debts that all American governments have acknowledged and agreed to for decades. If those countries retaliate by pulling out their money, the USD will fall a lot and the costs of needed imports, e.g., car parts and electronics, will increase. Also, many of those countries will now retaliate with new tariffs that will match the US. Worse, they will tariff the products America absolutely needs to function, like electronics needed for the military, and commercial aircraft and auto manufacturing. Plants will sbe forced to shut down across the US.
As the first CNBC analyst I heard remarked, this is worse than the worst case of our models.
I agree.
What’s to come now is Trump’s fight against the Fed. The Fed will not back down in its inflation fight, and Trump’s tariffs will ensure higher inflation. For the economic catastrophe to follow, Trump will blame the Fed. The names he will call the Fed chair will be right from the gutter.
The man is unfit to be President.
The proper way to solve America’s problems is to negotiate, not dictate. If Trump had actually written The Art of the Deal, instead of his ghost-writer, he would be managing this matter prudently. As it is, American workers, consumers, and investors will suffer. Don’t underestimate the amount of damage Trump has caused in the past hour. It’s massive.
The Rose garden repartee took place after the markets had closed for the day. He clearly didn’t want any real-time response.
CNBC Reports the US Senate has enough votes To override Trump’s Tariffs on some Canadian Goods.
I cannot imagine Congress would enable Trump to declare war against Canada and Denmark/Greenland.
Could be the reason — the end of Trump’s chaos — that the market is bullish today.
let’s watch the 10-year Treasury Yield (4.15% -4.20%) and June Gold (3167). If yields continue to sink and Gold rise then investors are expecting more chaos from the White House.
Some interesting items in 1440’s Business & Markets column:
> US stock markets close mixed (S&P 500 +0.4%, Dow -0.0%, Nasdaq +0.9%) (More) | Elon Musk ($342B), Mark Zuckerberg ($216B), and Jeff Bezos ($215B) top Forbes annual list of world’s billionaires; list features 3,028 people, up from last year (More)
> Conservative cable channel Newsmax shares rise 179% in second day of trading on NYSE; network now valued at over $16B, twice as much as The New York Times (More) | OpenAI closes $40B funding round, the most ever raised by a private tech company, valuing the ChatGPT maker at $300B (More)
> Restaurant chain Hooters files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, sells company-owned restaurants to franchise group led by company’s founders (More) | Judge rejects Johnson & Johnson’s $10B settlement plan over its talc-based baby powder (More)
I decided that if and when Alexei can do it, there will be a new tab on the website — for trading discussions.
What has bothered me isn’t that some of you are pure traders, it’s that I’m an investor, and my mission is to teach people how to invest successfully. If some people want to gamble their life savings on a 70% move happening in a month, I’m disappointed that they want to use my platform to discuss it.
As a teenager, one summer I worked with a friend helping his real estate salesman father prepare new houses for sale after the builders had finished. We staged the house for sale. At the end of the month, my friend and I each received a large envelope of cash from his father. I didn’t know his father was a heavy bettor on the horse races. The day he paid us, he took us to the track and showed us how to gamble. He didn’t tell us what horse to bet on, but as we kept losing all day and he showed us his winnings, we asked for help. It was the day’s final race, and our remaining cash was a fraction of what we’d earned that month. We were desperate. The father told us it was a large field that he had narrowed his choice to either of two horses. He wouldn’t tell us which one to bet. We saw that one of the horses was a longshot entry in the ‘field.’ When you bet the field, you win if any horse in that group wins. Being no-nothing youngsters, we bet the field to win. Sure enough, down the stretch came two horses well ahead of the pack. An exciting finish, except that our horse was nosed out of the win. That day, we lost every dollar we had worked hard for that month. I never bet on things again. I was a teenager who learned an important life lesson that day.
Years later, my first week at Dominion Securities, as a trainee, I was paired with an Asian rep. Rather than focus on investment sales, however, my associate studied the charts of the most volatile options trading stocks that expired at the end of the week. He was betting pennies per contract on humongous-sized contracts to see if he could strike it rich. There we were on the sales desk of the country’s biggest investment firm, and he was gambling personal money. Needless to say, I never saw him win. But he was hooked.
Many people are also hooked on lottery tickets. I bought one lottery ticket in my life — as a gift to help Italians build a retirement home. The ticket cost me $10 (probably $50 in today’s money). Also, when I lived in the Bahamas, a 3-minute walk from the biggest casino in the Caribbean, I spent many evenings there because of the entertainment– to the point the casino staff got to know me. One day, they observed me at the 25-cent slots with some visiting friends and afterwards called me “the quarter man.”
I know I’m not like most people, but I know that most people would like to be successful investors, and I can help. So, I asked Alexei to provide separate tabs on the website—one for investors and one for pure traders. If and when I have comments about trading, I’ll make them there. Otherwise, I’ll stick to investing-related comments.
My final comment: 95% of pure traders lose. They are betting against the Humongous Bank & Broker casino, the people with the deepest pockets in the world, who use the biggest computers and trading algorithms, and who know every client, every account, and the orders every client places. They hold a license to steal. I’d rather go to the race track or the casino. But, good luck.
With a price recovery in BTC, this week may be the reversal that baz22 is counting on.
Personal mail from a disgusted American
Sorry, I have to vent to someone.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/trump-says-nothing-table-obtaining-greenland
I don’t understand what is to be gained by such rhetoric.
Consider for a moment that you were someone in my position—or maybe someone like me who is an ultra-nationalist. If we really wanted Greenland, we would disparage Denmark’s support of it and offer economic incentives.
Threatening military action is absolutely counterproductive.
Look at Canada. It seems that Trump is essentially galvanizing the Canadian people and uniting them under Carney (whom I assess as a more competent/more dangerous carbon copy of Trudeau).
If we had started talking of tariffs with an underlying level of mutual respect and respect for sovereignty, it would seem that conservatives/Pollievre would have a better shot at obtaining power. Both economies could prosper. It’s not a zero-sum game.
Rant over. No response necessary. Thanks for letting me vent. Back to work.
Personal mail today from the Bahamas
Trump’s Tariffs….. The US tried it in 1938-39, it failed…world more complicated equalization- leveling of tariffs could have been achieved without this collateral damage and ‘bad taste’…. Trump’s comments on Canada – Greenland are beyond stupid, endorsing Russia’s occupation of Ukraine.
His row with WHO-UNESCO etc. sit down and discuss…. Yes US should not be paying 4-5 times more fees than China…agreed.
Trump’s unilateralism and interference are annoying most of the world…. The EU no longer sees the US as friendly…. They will feel it, and Tourism will dry up…
I detest his attitude everyone who doesn’t agree is the village idiot I am going to do it anyway. What if the Native Indians turned on the US government and demanded their lands back? Repay all US Gov gained from us of their lands from seizures etc?
Yes, massive waste in the US…. Don’t blame the world, blame Congress.
Supported but now disillusioned, but the fall will come…. After mid-terms, Congress-Senate will be strangled…
Massive losses in the NASDAQ 100
I attached a list of the 20 biggest losers over 1 week. Sixteen of the 20 are below their 200-day Moving Average. These are serious losses.
Does anyone have a good Index/ETF/Stock Xcorrelation estimator??? I can’t seem to find the one I used to use. Was curious abt the $SPX -vs- BITCOIN Xcorr. Best I can find right now is
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/asset-correlations#analysisResults
using Tickers ‘SPY IBIT’ & ‘Daily’ & ’60 Trading Days’
yielding 0.41
Here’s another one …
https://www.etfscreen.com/corrsym.php?s=SPY
BITCOIN seems to be rolling in ~0.47-0.46
& SPROT 0.36 , 0.28 , 0.11
using ‘Find in page’ tool
I answered in this week’s Navigator Report 13.
I added several BTC-related instruments to the tables and changed the time frames on the technical analysis to 5-, 15-, 30-, and 60-minute and 5-hour time frames that are more relevant to those trading Bitcoin.
Most of the public is opposed to a ‘strategic’ crypto fund, but given that it’s happening, I will follow it objectively now each week.
Wall St will say if you sell you will miss the biggest rallies.
Be very careful. Context. 🥷👇
Intraday breadth rolling over. 12:30pm
The audio discussion of the impact of Trump’s tariffs
https://notebooklm.google.com/notebook/8a8bc9a0-8284-4a74-b490-985726459b07/audio 18:59
I did hours of research and published my report at Help You Invest.
https://billcara.com/help-you-invest/the-impact-of-tariffs-on-the-global-economy-a-comprehensive-analysis/
The audio puts it into words that the average person can easily understand. There is no need to read the nonsense published on social media.
Nice work!
How quickly will tariff inflation lead to deflation after demand collapses? 1 month? 1 qtr? 1 yr? A decade?
The timing of tariff inflation depends on the timing and extent of retaliatory and counter-retaliatory tariffs.
We’ll know more after the close on April 2.
I combined your analysis from Help You Invest entitled “The Impact of Tariffs on the Global Economy: A Comprehensive Analysis” along with the latest report from the Office of United States Trade Representative entitled “USTR Releases 2025 National Trade Estimate Report”. “The NTE is an annual report detailing foreign trade barriers faced by U.S. exporters and USTR’s efforts to reduce those barriers”
https://ustr.gov/about/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2025/march/ustr-releases-2025-national-trade-estimate-report
https://notebooklm.google.com/notebook/4bf801be-907a-455c-af04-debba03a48ca/audio
That ustr document was enlightening. Thanks for posting.
The audio file takes a long time to load. I think many people will not wait that long. Maybe Alexei can do something to speed up the download.
It’s disappointing to me because this is a very good explanation of my report.
Bill — I listened to ~4min of this and then shut it off. I don’t believe this is going to work.
Back in the 60’s there was a story about someone going to brief SECDEF Robert McNamara on whatever and the briefer didn’t provide a paper copy to him.
His response was
“Don’t EVER Do This Again — I CAN READ FASTER THAN YOU CAN TALK”
Kyle
The purpose of the discussion format is make select comments in my 550-page investment report average-person friendly.
The new Trader tab will encourage the type of brief comments we had 15 years ago. I will do what I can to attract new traders to participate.
I am trying to get a university to partner the site and take it over when I reach an age or health situation I can do it no longer.