Happy to be back in USA, I am all cash and glad I am,I spend whole day lasting and reading all post here, Market is so fascinating !!!, I remember GLW, My wife use to work for corning, stock was around $300, it went down to $100, she wanted to buy it using her 401K at corning, At that time we don’t know stock market and dont understand it so I told her not to move money into GLW, well, stock went to $1–lesson is if stock goes down than there is no bottom. she brought lots of GLW at $1 through her bi-weekly paycheck, and we are still holding it in her 401k now time comes to have force withdrawal from 401K
looking at more defensive sectors. WGS 95.47. No stock in its field has risen so far from its 52 week low. It is also in the IBD 50 and no stock in the IBD 50 has risen so far from its 52 week low. Fundamentals are strong. Casadin Capital, a Life Sciences LLC, has it as its largest position and just bought more. Quarterly earnings have been strong. Next earnings are due April 30. It’s a volatile stock.
My feelings are this coming week, if BTC climbs, money will find where the wild things are… Mainly, MSTR and GME.. Microstrategy is lining up billions to spend… GameStop is sitting on billions in cash, with No CEO stock sales since 2020, and insider’s are buying… I like their alt-coin buying along side their BTC buys
A Long Tail Up pattern on April 14. The significance of this is that substantial demand is present at the beaten-down levels. So, even if the stock gets hammered again, there is a probability that demand will return at the 260 level, which is the present first level of technical support on the pivot point charts.
One of the common mistakes among newer traders is the idea that a good chart reader must be able to read ANY chart – that is, be able to create trading scenario, analyze odds and so on. They tend to be surprised by “I have no idea” answer when ask an opinion about certain situation they are interested in. Yet this is my fairly frequent answer – and I don’t hesitate to give it when I see nothing recognizable in the chart I am shown.
You see, trading is not about being able to trade each and every movement. Trading is about to be able to pick the right opportunity – right in terms of YOUR trading approach, right in a sense of YOUR ability to read and understand the movement and right in a sense of fitting YOUR risk and objectives profile. What good a perfect breakout chart to you if you are a reversal trader, specializing in trend change setups and having little knowledge of and experience with trend continuation? It’s not unlike a hunter who sits patiently in his hide waiting for his prey, waiting for the right moment and acting only when everything is in place for a successful shot.
Then there are situations which present no or almost no opportunity for anyone, whatever their trading style is. If the chart is a mess with no pronounced levels, no volume clues, no clear configurations – it’s safe to assume that we are facing an uncertain situation where nervous traders flee the risk, don’t commit and engage very carefully if at all. There will be a resolution of this situation, and that’s when you will get your signals, setups will shape up and trades will come your way. Until then, feel confident in your lack of confidence – it takes a real trader to say “I don’t know.”
Good teacher teaches humility — and the market is a GREAT teacher.
“The vulgar are clever, self-assured; I alone, depressed. Patient as the sea, Adrift, seemingly aimless.
It’s much more common for a really knowledgeable experienced trader to sound reluctant, to be unsure of the future developments and admit it openly. Knowing how uncertain the market is, he is not so quick to express full confidence; he accepts that events may develop in unforeseen way, and such acceptance makes him better prepared for an unexpected turn of events. A Taoist Trader’s plans and prognosis are usually tentative, with provisions for various conditions. They will include many “ifs” and “buts.” He would rather plan for multiple scenarios than put his full confidence in a single one.”
+1 No, Solana (SOL) does not have a fixed maximum supply like Bitcoin. Instead, Solana uses an inflationary model where new SOL tokens are gradually introduced to incentivize network validators and maintain network security. This inflation rate starts at 8% annually and decreases by 15% each year, ultimately reaching a long-term fixed rate of 1.5%. Here’s a more detailed explanation: No fixed maximum supply: Unlike Bitcoin, Solana doesn’t have a cap on the total number of SOL tokens that can be created. Inflationary model: New SOL tokens are created over time to reward validators for their contributions to the network and to maintain security. Decreasing inflation: The initial inflation rate of 8% decreases by 15% each year until it reaches a long-term fixed rate of 1.5%. Incentivizes validators: By creating new tokens, the network rewards validators for their participation, ensuring the long-term health of the Solana ecosystem.
Entered Treasure Global today at $ 3.34… sold $ 3.81…… enter NB stock Monday ( on pre announced CEO interview on Fox/Maria April 16 ) at $ 2.55…sold $3.89 today… Entered SMX ah. tonight at $ 2.15
Bad trade… BULL IPO.. in $ 63.12… Out $ 56.20.. That’s not the bad part – I was on that killer streak with JNVR ( from $ 28 ) and sold at $ 61…to have good funds for the WeBull trade… I had to dump BULL the ‘ morning after ‘ ( $ 56.20 )… Meanwhile, JNVR rocketed to $ 78……. Damn….. Why’d I sell JNVR ?.. Because Canada approved it’s first Solana ETF for trade on April 16.. I should have used reverse/reverse psychology – not competition for JNVR – but more soaking up of SOL… When the SEC _ Ripple case gets settled ( and it’s looking good ), Solana will rip
Powell today.. ” “Powell also mentioned that as crypto is becoming more mainstream, there’s a need for a legal framework for stablecoins. He said that banking regulation around crypto will likely be “partially relaxed “… Coindesk
“Unsurprisingly, nominees to key positions in the new US administration (for example, Elise Stefanik (UN Ambassador), Marco Rubio (now confirmed as Secretary of State), and Howard Lutnick (Commerce Secretary)) have been advocates for developing such projects in the US. Also, the House of Representatives recently asked the Defense department to conduct a feasibility study on deep sea mining.
With Steve Jurvetson, a friend of Elon Musk, on the board of directors, probabilities for both a general push into deep-sea mining and an endorsement of TMC also increase on a political level. The development of this major tailwind was also highlighted by CFO Craig Shesky in a recent interview. He also underpinned that TMC will apply for a mining license at the end of Q2 2025 and that he aims to generate revenue in Q1 2026″…. from S.A.
** received territorial water permission from the state of Nauru to mine…working with Glencore
“TMC plans to mine polymetallic nodules in the High Seas of the Pacific Ocean – metal deposits that contain manganese, cobalt, nickel, copper, and rare earth elements. Amidst concern about critical mineral security for clean energy and national security applications, producing such a wide range of metals offers a new approach to securing mineral supply. This new sector is important geopolitically, with recent moves by China to secure mining rights to the seabed of the Cook Islands even called a “Sputnik moment” for the United States.
Over the last fifteen years, TMC has methodically de-risked its technical operations through successful pilot mining, environmental studies, and metallurgical processing tests. The company invested over $500 million on dozens of research and exploration campaigns, developing and validating its approach. As it awaits final regulatory approval it has successfully switched to a “capital-light” model in the last quarter, ready to scale rapidly and begin production once it has secured a mining license “.
Never in 50 years have I seen the market so ripe for traders to do their thing. Price drivers are firing like teenagers’ hormones. Beliefs that the market will crash are extreme, as are many investors’ beliefs that the market is going higher. Anxiety reigns. Volatility exceeded 50 a few days ago. Gold is well over 3300 this morning. Central banks and governments worldwide are issuing statements in rapid fire. Companies are saying they have two scenarios for earnings guidance. The President is threatening wars, fighting universities, offering taxpayer money to buy countries, and ignoring the courts. These times are unprecedented.
So, now is the time to make your year, and showcase your skills here. When markets are booming and you say a 10% gain on a flyer proves your brilliance, nobody’s listening.
Several on the radar… CRSP is high on the list… Four different clinical updates by mid-year, involving Type 1 diabetes, cancer and other… I maintain MSTR… Just in the last 3 weeks I’ve returned 140% with JNVR….last month netted 50% with APP..* ..MSTR netted 48% the past 3 weeks on roll over trades
It’s now like dealing with a teenager on Prozac…to me, it will become more so as supply starts to dwindle.. mammoth hodling is happening…a couple years ago I outlined here where hodlers were… That was before Strategy and the ETF’s…. The absorption is rapid… so the tree is constantly shaking… I do see a ‘ base-ish ‘ around $ 80k… My challenge is not BTC – it’s the holding companies.. I’m sure you’ve seen the absolutely gargantuan moves in MSTR… More tame with digital miners… There are many angles and just as many stories…. I honestly didn’t think anyone was following the ‘ Traders tab ‘… Thanks
baz22, I want people to follow this tab. We all have different skills, experience, and interests. I believe in personal development, and I encourage action. I’ll never be the trader you are, nor would it fit me, so I don’t try. But that doesn’t make me a better person or a smarter one. We just have a different path in life.
Next week, I will do something I haven’t done in 25 years. I’m going to promote this website with an email blast. Many of the few people who open emails are traders, and I’ll invite them to join you here.
To show how much I care about what you do, Alexei would confirm my first instruction in restructuring the tabs here was to call a new one, Baz’s Traders. Without telling kaimu, I set up a tab for him, which worked well. But I know you well, so I changed the name to Traders Community.
There is a community of traders — people helping people spot opportunities to make money.
As for me, I’m too worried about losing money so I stick with names I know, and with a longer time horizon. In the book I will release early next week, I list the world’s six most popular brands, and note the 10-year Average Annual Return from Apr. 15, 2015 to Apr. 14, 2025. 1. Apple 21.73% 2. Google 19.83% 3. Microsoft 26.65% 4. Amazon 25.23% 5. McDonald’s 15.46% 6. Visa 18.52%
If I could earn (in a tax-deferred account) an average annualized total return of 21.24% over 10 years, I would double my money every three years. To do it while comforted by the free quarterly analyst reports from Value Line (because these are all blue-chip Dow 30 companies), I’d beat the performance of 99% of traders and investors.
So, rather than find an MSTR to trade, I aim to invest. I’m sure some traders have averaged more than 21.24% in MSTR in recent years, which I respect. But I also know it takes years to develop trading skills and experience at your level, and too many people think it’s easy.
Sold later in the day ( Smci ) … Have allocated funds back into MSTR… Maintaining JNVR I believe, as Arthur Hayes said, BTC is soon entering an ” up only mode “.. treasuries, dollar, etc will dictate that
I have to accept that BTC is here to stay…Block is the future of finance…will I live to see it ?… Maybe not, but things change – out of necessity, whether or not we have any control..
Today’s website change was done to accommodate the differing interests here.
Under the Communities tab, you now see (i) Traders Blog, (ii) Investing with Bill, (iii) Kaimu’s Blog, and iv) Life & Politics. I anticipate most of you will be blogging here, and that’s ok with me.
Some of you are pure traders, so now you have space. When I or other investors recommend a trade, we will post it here. We’ll keep these blogs short and to the point.
I listened to Kyle, who said, “Let it go and things will return to the way it used to be,” when referring to the fact I had instructed Alexei to ban several people because I believed they were disrespecting everything I have been doing here for 21 years.
I will continue to write in the Investors Blog section because I am an investor.
If you consider yourself a trader but have a long-term investment idea, post it in the Investors Blog section, not here. Investors who want to blog about a specific trade can do so in this Traders Blog section.
Frankly, if baz22 wants to tell the world he is putting all his money on a trade that he expects to increase 75% or more in a month, I won’t say I’m disappointed. As long as it does not reflect my values, I couldn’t care less. I’ll let the readers who are traders decide if it reflects their values.
All of us should put blogs about Life & Politics in that area (i.e., comments or discussions that are not about specific investment or trading information). There are obvious overlaps, but this area should be for our opinions that do not directly involve a stock, bond, or fund.
Kaimu will remain kaimu, who uniquely mixes his investing, trading, and politics in his blogs.
Due to corporate and ETF absorption of the existing BTC, the miners will be the ‘ buy ‘ in a year… They are hodling 3 out of 4 coins mined.. average monthly mining for MARA, CKSK, RIOT and IREN is around 550 coins… Mining machines last 7 years and pay for themselves in less than 2 years Mara holding 44,000 BTC and buying $ 2 Billion more The next ‘ halving ‘ is April 2028
MSTR — This is why I like Banding-Structures. On the LHS everything is fine and contained. Then Blow-Out. It’s the same in Target-Tracking (we have to use our past experience to connect with trading). Kalman-Filters. Change-Detection. Expansion of Tracking Bands.
I am feeling a freedom to post what I was reluctant to do for the past year… Thanks so much for the ‘ new ‘ tab here… I hope Toby and so many others will return There were so, so many great ideas put out on so many different areas… Did they all work out ?… Heck no, but that’s trading… You learn to sell…You learn to buy…
So WIMI is splitting 1 for 20 on April 14.. as expected the price has been driven down…..looking like the 1 for 20 will put it around $ 6.00… what a lovely area to rip like MLGO recently, being that WIMI ( parent to MLGO ) now owns 68% of MLGO… Trust me… these boys are Big into quantum computing and accompanying algorithms
Sobr Safe… April is alcohol awareness month… Position in- afternoon today * concerning BTC miners and HPC data power… I’ve elected to go with a pure BTC miner.. early ?… …Maybe, maybe not ** still waiting on review) ratings at Apov…..Per Miley – ‘ I can talk to myself for hours ‘..!! Sold JNVR in low $ 40’s..( in at $ 26’s )
Looking for $ 193 to buy.. $ 211 could be stopping point.. MSTR ** if disputes resolved before tomorrow open, I have a good position to add to going up
I post charts here on the ‘Trader’s tab’ and they’re gone. I post charts on the ‘Investor’s tab’ and they duplicate. Sorry — Don’t Know What’s Going On …
Nevermind… Did exit MSTR at $ 301 from after market buys last night ). but will be back… Focusing on select crypto miners… Started a strong position in GME ( Most funds tied up in Strategy till exit today )
Starting to focus on rare earth companies
Current niobium production is centered in Brazil, followed by China…. China is the world’s leading producer of scandium…
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/NIOCORP-DEVELOPMENTS-LTD-120793648/news/NioCorp-Closes-Public-Share-Offering-for-Total-Proceeds-of-20-8-Million-49667610/
Happy to be back in USA, I am all cash and glad I am,I spend whole day lasting and reading all post here, Market is so fascinating !!!, I remember GLW, My wife use to work for corning, stock was around $300, it went down to $100, she wanted to buy it using her 401K at corning, At that time we don’t know stock market and dont understand it so I told her not to move money into GLW, well, stock went to $1–lesson is if stock goes down than there is no bottom. she brought lots of GLW at $1 through her bi-weekly paycheck, and we are still holding it in her 401k now time comes to have force withdrawal from 401K
Thinking of dropping BTC related..
Let JNVR go premarket… Tiny profit
From $ 48-50 Thursday
Will try to start speculative position in WIMI..
Newbie UPXI control’s 4x SOL than JNVR
looking at more defensive sectors.
WGS 95.47. No stock in its field has risen so far from its 52 week low. It is also in the IBD 50 and no stock in the IBD 50 has risen so far from its 52 week low. Fundamentals are strong. Casadin Capital, a Life Sciences LLC, has it as its largest position and just bought more. Quarterly earnings have been strong. Next earnings are due April 30. It’s a volatile stock.
I agree with Tom Lee and others that the Microstrategy accumulation of BTC is the first phase of a much larger plan…
My feelings are this coming week, if BTC climbs, money will find where the wild things are… Mainly, MSTR and GME..
Microstrategy is lining up billions to spend… GameStop is sitting on billions in cash, with No CEO stock sales since 2020, and insider’s are buying… I like their alt-coin buying along side their BTC buys
Looks like Baz made a timely trade in MSTR.
MSTR gained +5.7% this week, including +1.8% on Thursday.
MicroStrategy (MSTR) PnF chart :
A Long Tail Up pattern on April 14. The significance of this is that substantial demand is present at the beaten-down levels. So, even if the stock gets hammered again, there is a probability that demand will return at the 260 level, which is the present first level of technical support on the pivot point charts.
MSTR — compression against 320-lvl like 2-April spike/rejection.
I’m reweighing more so into GME…
Had previously started in the $ 21.00’s
GME — Nice movement off the 20.75’ish Dbl-Bot. Good Stuff
Sunday, September 11, 2011
Trade what you can read
http://blog.realitytrader.com/2011/09/trade-what-you-can-read.html *** link no longer works ***
One of the common mistakes among newer traders is the idea that a good chart reader must be able to read ANY chart – that is, be able to create trading scenario, analyze odds and so on. They tend to be surprised by “I have no idea” answer when ask an opinion about certain situation they are interested in. Yet this is my fairly frequent answer – and I don’t hesitate to give it when I see nothing recognizable in the chart I am shown.
You see, trading is not about being able to trade each and every movement. Trading is about to be able to pick the right opportunity – right in terms of YOUR trading approach, right in a sense of YOUR ability to read and understand the movement and right in a sense of fitting YOUR risk and objectives profile. What good a perfect breakout chart to you if you are a reversal trader, specializing in trend change setups and having little knowledge of and experience with trend continuation? It’s not unlike a hunter who sits patiently in his hide waiting for his prey, waiting for the right moment and acting only when everything is in place for a successful shot.
Then there are situations which present no or almost no opportunity for anyone, whatever their trading style is. If the chart is a mess with no pronounced levels, no volume clues, no clear configurations – it’s safe to assume that we are facing an uncertain situation where nervous traders flee the risk, don’t commit and engage very carefully if at all. There will be a resolution of this situation, and that’s when you will get your signals, setups will shape up and trades will come your way. Until then, feel confident in your lack of confidence – it takes a real trader to say “I don’t know.”
Good teacher teaches humility — and the market is a GREAT teacher.
To quote A Taoist Trader:
“The vulgar are clever, self-assured;
I alone, depressed.
Patient as the sea,
Adrift, seemingly aimless.
It’s much more common
for a really knowledgeable experienced trader to sound reluctant, to be
unsure of the future developments and admit it openly. Knowing how
uncertain the market is, he is not so quick to express full confidence; he
accepts that events may develop in unforeseen way, and such acceptance
makes him better prepared for an unexpected turn of events. A Taoist
Trader’s plans and prognosis are usually tentative, with provisions for
various conditions. They will include many “ifs” and “buts.” He would
rather plan for multiple scenarios than put his full confidence in a single
one.”
Posted by Vadym Graifer at 11:23 AM
ES_F — Current situation ( from https://x.com/verniman ) whose ES trades I’ve followed since 2018.
$SPX (30min) — From my PoV SPX was only out-of-band for 4 days. Piss on It.
baz — What did you think of the Masters???
Reminded me of Jimmy Connors … Grabbing Defeat from the Jaws of Victory. Almost
Unbelievably great… True emotions
Excellent
These days, Vad enjoys his photography and cooking more than the market, I think.
Yes. You are Absolutely Right. I’ve been following Vad’s photography on Facebook for
a while now. https://www.facebook.com/vadym.graifer
But here are some archival links to his old blog posts that may be of interest.
https://uncomprehensiveness55.rssing.com/chan-24278809/all_p1.html
Last post …
https://uncomprehensiveness55.rssing.com/chan-24278809/all_p26.html#c24278809a507
Vad Pulled the Plug 01-July-2015. Been a while.
I have his book on kindle. Reading it slowly. That’s a great excerpt. Thank you
Welcome. Vad wrote an earlier book Techniques of Tape Reading (2004). I’ll try to attach the .pdf.
or you can get it from
https://vdoc.pub/search/techniques%20tape%20reading
Restarted vktx
Restarted jmvr
Restarted gme
JNVR
Nibbling at BULL
Currently, JNVR control’s 4% of the Solana market
Does Solana have a max supply?
AI Overview
+1
No, Solana (SOL) does not have a fixed maximum supply like Bitcoin. Instead, Solana uses an inflationary model where new SOL tokens are gradually introduced to incentivize network validators and maintain network security. This inflation rate starts at 8% annually and decreases by 15% each year, ultimately reaching a long-term fixed rate of 1.5%.
Here’s a more detailed explanation:
No fixed maximum supply:
Unlike Bitcoin, Solana doesn’t have a cap on the total number of SOL tokens that can be created.
Inflationary model:
New SOL tokens are created over time to reward validators for their contributions to the network and to maintain security.
Decreasing inflation:
The initial inflation rate of 8% decreases by 15% each year until it reaches a long-term fixed rate of 1.5%.
Incentivizes validators:
By creating new tokens, the network rewards validators for their participation, ensuring the long-term health of the Solana ecosystem.
Trading in junior natural resources.
‘Tis the season.
Sold SMX premarket… Sold MSTR.. no position’s
Entered Treasure Global today at $ 3.34… sold $ 3.81…… enter NB stock Monday ( on pre announced CEO interview on Fox/Maria April 16 ) at $ 2.55…sold $3.89 today… Entered SMX ah. tonight at $ 2.15
* maintain MSTR….
Bad trade… BULL IPO.. in $ 63.12… Out $ 56.20..
That’s not the bad part – I was on that killer streak with JNVR ( from $ 28 ) and sold at $ 61…to have good funds for the WeBull trade… I had to dump BULL the ‘ morning after ‘ ( $ 56.20 )… Meanwhile, JNVR rocketed to $ 78……. Damn…..
Why’d I sell JNVR ?.. Because Canada approved it’s first Solana ETF for trade on April 16.. I should have used reverse/reverse psychology – not competition for JNVR – but more soaking up of SOL…
When the SEC _ Ripple case gets settled ( and it’s looking good ), Solana will rip
Powell today.. ” “Powell also mentioned that as crypto is becoming more mainstream, there’s a need for a legal framework for stablecoins. He said that banking regulation around crypto will likely be “partially relaxed “… Coindesk
I wrote something about Harvard and Trump in Life & Politics that is important to me. I hope you read it.
Here -> dear !… https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/25/04/44792011/mp-materials-the-metals-company-shares-are-moving-higher-monday-heres-why
“Unsurprisingly, nominees to key positions in the new US administration (for example, Elise Stefanik (UN Ambassador), Marco Rubio (now confirmed as Secretary of State), and Howard Lutnick (Commerce Secretary)) have been advocates for developing such projects in the US. Also, the House of Representatives recently asked the Defense department to conduct a feasibility study on deep sea mining.
With Steve Jurvetson, a friend of Elon Musk, on the board of directors, probabilities for both a general push into deep-sea mining and an endorsement of TMC also increase on a political level. The development of this major tailwind was also highlighted by CFO Craig Shesky in a recent interview. He also underpinned that TMC will apply for a mining license at the end of Q2 2025 and that he aims to generate revenue in Q1 2026″…. from S.A.
** received territorial water permission from the state of Nauru to mine…working with Glencore
“TMC plans to mine polymetallic nodules in the High Seas of the Pacific Ocean – metal deposits that contain manganese, cobalt, nickel, copper, and rare earth elements. Amidst concern about critical mineral security for clean energy and national security applications, producing such a wide range of metals offers a new approach to securing mineral supply. This new sector is important geopolitically, with recent moves by China to secure mining rights to the seabed of the Cook Islands even called a “Sputnik moment” for the United States.
Over the last fifteen years, TMC has methodically de-risked its technical operations through successful pilot mining, environmental studies, and metallurgical processing tests. The company invested over $500 million on dozens of research and exploration campaigns, developing and validating its approach. As it awaits final regulatory approval it has successfully switched to a “capital-light” model in the last quarter, ready to scale rapidly and begin production once it has secured a mining license “.
Traders, it’s time to show what you’ve got.
Never in 50 years have I seen the market so ripe for traders to do their thing. Price drivers are firing like teenagers’ hormones. Beliefs that the market will crash are extreme, as are many investors’ beliefs that the market is going higher. Anxiety reigns. Volatility exceeded 50 a few days ago. Gold is well over 3300 this morning. Central banks and governments worldwide are issuing statements in rapid fire. Companies are saying they have two scenarios for earnings guidance. The President is threatening wars, fighting universities, offering taxpayer money to buy countries, and ignoring the courts. These times are unprecedented.
So, now is the time to make your year, and showcase your skills here. When markets are booming and you say a 10% gain on a flyer proves your brilliance, nobody’s listening.
Several on the radar… CRSP is high on the list… Four different clinical updates by mid-year, involving Type 1 diabetes, cancer and other…
I maintain MSTR… Just in the last 3 weeks I’ve returned 140% with JNVR….last month netted 50% with APP..* ..MSTR netted 48% the past 3 weeks on roll over trades
VERV had exciting news this week..
** Canada starts Solana ETF’s today – April 16
Loar looks good. I bought at $88.
out at a 4% loss. I noticed that Abram’s capital management
. sold 2.6% of their holding of $100.52M. That doesn’t help.
Sold JNVR
Early open
Adding to MSTR
Had to go back to De-Fi Development Corp ( Janover ) … possible 5+% control of SOL… currently MSTR is at 2.65 % of BTC
In Webull late today
Took good profits for today in jnvr
Maybe it’s time to give up my Bitcoin adventure… Oh well…
Knowing you like BTC, I’ll give you my 2 cts when I think it’s time to buy
Maybe we can figure it out together
It’s now like dealing with a teenager on Prozac…to me, it will become more so as supply starts to dwindle.. mammoth hodling is happening…a couple years ago I outlined here where hodlers were… That was before Strategy and the ETF’s…. The absorption is rapid… so the tree is constantly shaking… I do see a ‘ base-ish ‘ around $ 80k… My challenge is not BTC – it’s the holding companies.. I’m sure you’ve seen the absolutely gargantuan moves in MSTR… More tame with digital miners… There are many angles and just as many stories…. I honestly didn’t think anyone was following the ‘ Traders tab ‘… Thanks
” …at some point, people will come to realize they have more to fear by not embracing this technology ( Bitcoin ) than they do embracing it “… Michael Saylor
https://cointelegraph.com/news/saylor-strategy-buying-dip-amid-macroeconomic-turmoil…… ** a note – RSI turned positive Friday for the first time in weeks
baz22, I want people to follow this tab. We all have different skills, experience, and interests. I believe in personal development, and I encourage action. I’ll never be the trader you are, nor would it fit me, so I don’t try. But that doesn’t make me a better person or a smarter one. We just have a different path in life.
Next week, I will do something I haven’t done in 25 years. I’m going to promote this website with an email blast. Many of the few people who open emails are traders, and I’ll invite them to join you here.
To show how much I care about what you do, Alexei would confirm my first instruction in restructuring the tabs here was to call a new one, Baz’s Traders. Without telling kaimu, I set up a tab for him, which worked well. But I know you well, so I changed the name to Traders Community.
There is a community of traders — people helping people spot opportunities to make money.
As for me, I’m too worried about losing money so I stick with names I know, and with a longer time horizon. In the book I will release early next week, I list the world’s six most popular brands, and note the 10-year Average Annual Return from Apr. 15, 2015 to Apr. 14, 2025.
1. Apple 21.73%
2. Google 19.83%
3. Microsoft 26.65%
4. Amazon 25.23%
5. McDonald’s 15.46%
6. Visa 18.52%
If I could earn (in a tax-deferred account) an average annualized total return of 21.24% over 10 years, I would double my money every three years. To do it while comforted by the free quarterly analyst reports from Value Line (because these are all blue-chip Dow 30 companies), I’d beat the performance of 99% of traders and investors.
So, rather than find an MSTR to trade, I aim to invest. I’m sure some traders have averaged more than 21.24% in MSTR in recent years, which I respect. But I also know it takes years to develop trading skills and experience at your level, and too many people think it’s easy.
Let’s build the Traders Community together.
10-4..👍
Whatever makes life easier is appealing… Restarted smci
Eschew biotech lately, but medical device maker Rsls …
Sold later in the day ( Smci ) … Have allocated funds back into MSTR… Maintaining JNVR
I believe, as Arthur Hayes said, BTC is soon entering an ” up only mode “.. treasuries, dollar, etc will dictate that
Rcat is enticing after direct offering
Had written JNVR trade last week.. it’s getting traction.. They establish a Solana reserve…back in early am today
.. https://www.coinbase.com/learn/crypto-basics/what-is-solana
Out…$ 54
https://www.stocktitan.net/news/JNVR/crypto-industry-leaders-acquire-majority-ownership-of-janover-i96g4ewdsr6n.html
I restarted ah tonight… https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/02/02/should-you-forget-bitcoin-and-buy-solana-instead/
I have to accept that BTC is here to stay…Block is the future of finance…will I live to see it ?… Maybe not, but things change – out of necessity, whether or not we have any control..
I don’t see the ‘ greater fool ‘ theory… I see a ‘ greater investor ‘ test…
Today’s website change was done to accommodate the differing interests here.
Under the Communities tab, you now see (i) Traders Blog, (ii) Investing with Bill, (iii) Kaimu’s Blog, and iv) Life & Politics. I anticipate most of you will be blogging here, and that’s ok with me.
Some of you are pure traders, so now you have space. When I or other investors recommend a trade, we will post it here. We’ll keep these blogs short and to the point.
I listened to Kyle, who said, “Let it go and things will return to the way it used to be,” when referring to the fact I had instructed Alexei to ban several people because I believed they were disrespecting everything I have been doing here for 21 years.
I will continue to write in the Investors Blog section because I am an investor.
If you consider yourself a trader but have a long-term investment idea, post it in the Investors Blog section, not here. Investors who want to blog about a specific trade can do so in this Traders Blog section.
Frankly, if baz22 wants to tell the world he is putting all his money on a trade that he expects to increase 75% or more in a month, I won’t say I’m disappointed. As long as it does not reflect my values, I couldn’t care less. I’ll let the readers who are traders decide if it reflects their values.
All of us should put blogs about Life & Politics in that area (i.e., comments or discussions that are not about specific investment or trading information). There are obvious overlaps, but this area should be for our opinions that do not directly involve a stock, bond, or fund.
Kaimu will remain kaimu, who uniquely mixes his investing, trading, and politics in his blogs.
Test
works
But… things can’t be one side only… So trading site is good… welcome cintrast
$BTCUSD — Took me awhile to get a banding-structure dialed in. Will need to rework later BUT BTC Lookin’ Good.
Well hell … https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/04/06/bitcoin-posts-worst-q1-in-a-decade-raising-questions-about-where-the-cycle-stands
I had grabbed MSTR at $ 238 a couple weeks back…May get the opportunity again… Looks like my BTC $ 150k April is dust… I nailed three previous moves 6 months prior in last two years… Can’t win em all…but…there will be tremendous trading opportunities in MSTR
Due to corporate and ETF absorption of the existing BTC, the miners will be the ‘ buy ‘ in a year… They are hodling 3 out of 4 coins mined.. average monthly mining for MARA, CKSK, RIOT and IREN is around 550 coins… Mining machines last 7 years and pay for themselves in less than 2 years
Mara holding 44,000 BTC and buying $ 2 Billion more
The next ‘ halving ‘ is April 2028
MSTR — This is why I like Banding-Structures. On the LHS everything is fine and contained. Then Blow-Out. It’s the same in Target-Tracking (we have to use our past experience to connect with trading). Kalman-Filters. Change-Detection. Expansion of Tracking Bands.
Amen
https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/04/06/1-top-cryptocurrency-to-buy-before-it-soars-15072/
I am feeling a freedom to post what I was reluctant to do for the past year… Thanks so much for the ‘ new ‘ tab here… I hope Toby and so many others will return
There were so, so many great ideas put out on so many different areas… Did they all work out ?… Heck no, but that’s trading…
You learn to sell…You learn to buy…
So WIMI is splitting 1 for 20 on April 14.. as expected the price has been driven down…..looking like the 1 for 20 will put it around $ 6.00… what a lovely area to rip like MLGO recently, being that WIMI ( parent to MLGO ) now owns 68% of MLGO…
Trust me… these boys are Big into quantum computing and accompanying algorithms
baz — We’ve GOT to Get BACK to this FREE FLOW Discussion/Conversation FLOW.
We all have different backgrounds / perspectives
WTH Knows how it will will go. BUT Let it ROLL!!!
Cheers
Starting NVDA
Excellent day
Crwv… JNVR
Sobr Safe… April is alcohol awareness month… Position in- afternoon today
* concerning BTC miners and HPC data power… I’ve elected to go with a pure BTC miner.. early ?… …Maybe, maybe not
** still waiting on review) ratings at Apov…..Per Miley – ‘ I can talk to myself for hours ‘..!!
Sold JNVR in low $ 40’s..( in at $ 26’s )
Riot, Mara and IREN are not pure play crypto miners
…will be patient..🤔
https://invezz.com/news/2025/04/08/solana-price-prediction-is-it-a-good-buy-as-janover-starts-buying/
That’s Special … Cheers
https://www.coinspeaker.com/solana-nosedives-as-tariff-shock-sparks-crypto-bloodbath/
https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/02/02/should-you-forget-bitcoin-and-buy-solana-instead/
Thought I posted some charts over here BUT as the song says
“They Come and GO!!!”
Started buys in MSTR tonight
Looking for $ 193 to buy.. $ 211 could be stopping point.. MSTR
** if disputes resolved before tomorrow open, I have a good position to add to going up
baz22 i think you should post in the top section so your more recent comments come first
Thanks Alexei… I keep getting booted off ‘ logged in ‘ to logged out… So I just picked up Whittier left off – below previous
I post charts here on the ‘Trader’s tab’ and they’re gone.
I post charts on the ‘Investor’s tab’ and they duplicate.
Sorry — Don’t Know What’s Going On …
Studying nat gas power for data centers… 9 MW is about standard… New kids on the block…will update soon…Best to ya
Nevermind… Did exit MSTR at $ 301 from after market buys last night ). but will be back… Focusing on select crypto miners… Started a strong position in GME ( Most funds tied up in Strategy till exit today )