March 17, 2025
Overview
The US Census Bureau’s Retail Sales report provides a monthly snapshot of sales from businesses that primarily sell to consumers. While it is a key indicator of consumer spending, it does not encompass all sales in the US economy. Retail sales account for approximately 30%—35% of all sales in the US, with the remainder coming from wholesale trade, manufacturing shipments, and services.
Retail sales also comprise about 20%—25% of US GDP, as consumer spending is the largest component of GDP, accounting for roughly 65%—70% of economic activity.
Latest Retail Sales Data (February 2025)
- Release Date: March 17, 2025
- Actual: 0.2%
- Forecast: 0.6%
- Previous: -1.2%
Retail sales measure the change in the total sales value at the retail level. A higher-than-expected reading is generally positive for the US dollar (USD), while a lower-than-expected reading is negative.
Monthly Retail Sales Trends (2024-2025)
| Release Date | Time | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
| Mar 17, 2025 (Feb) | 08:30 | 0.2% | 0.6% | -1.2% |
| Feb 14, 2025 (Jan) | 09:30 | -0.9% | -0.2% | 0.7% |
| Jan 16, 2025 (Dec) | 09:30 | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.8% |
| Dec 17, 2024 (Nov) | 09:30 | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% |
| Nov 15, 2024 (Oct) | 09:30 | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.8% |
| Oct 17, 2024 (Sep) | 08:30 | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Sep 17, 2024 (Aug) | 08:30 | 0.1% | -0.2% | 1.1% |
| Aug 15, 2024 (Jul) | 08:30 | 1.0% | 0.4% | -0.2% |
| Jul 16, 2024 (Jun) | 08:30 | 0.0% | -0.3% | 0.3% |
| Jun 18, 2024 (May) | 08:30 | 0.1% | 0.3% | -0.2% |
| May 15, 2024 (Apr) | 08:30 | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.6% |
| Apr 15, 2024 (Mar) | 08:30 | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.9% |
Retail Sales as a Percentage of Total Sales
- Retail sales account for 30%–35% of all sales in the US economy.
- Other sales not included in the retail sales report include wholesale trade, manufacturing shipments, and services.
Retail Sales as a Percentage of US GDP
- Retail sales make up 20%—25% of US GDP.
- Consumer spending, which includes more than just retail (e.g., healthcare, housing, services), accounts for 65%—70% of GDP.
Other Sales Not Included in Retail Sales
- Wholesale Sales: Sales of goods to businesses for resale.
- Manufacturing Shipments: Sales from factories to businesses.
- Service Industry Sales: Healthcare, finance, education, hospitality, etc.
- Real Estate Transactions: Home sales and rental income.
- Government Purchases: Federal, state, and local government spending.
Data Collection and Revisions
The Retail Sales report is an estimate based on a monthly survey of retailers. The data is subject to:
- Sampling variability: Since it’s based on a survey, not a full count.
- Non-sampling errors, Such as response bias or reporting mistakes.
The Census Bureau revises retail sales data in two ways:
- Next-Month Revision: Adjustments are made when new survey responses or corrections are received.
- Annual Benchmark Revision: Data is revised annually based on more complete information from tax records and the Economic Census.
Retail Sales Trends
- Long-Term Growth: Retail sales generally trend upward due to population growth, wage increases, and inflation.
- E-Commerce Growth: Online sales have grown faster than brick-and-mortar stores, accounting for 16.1% of total retail sales in 2024.
- Cyclical Impact: Retail sales fluctuate with economic cycles, performing well during booms and poorly during recessions.
Seasonal Impact on Retail Sales
Retail sales experience strong seasonal trends:
- Holiday Sales Surge: November and December (Black Friday, Christmas) see the highest sales.
- Back-to-School Bump: Late summer (July–August) sees increased spending on school supplies and apparel.
- Post-Holiday Dip: January and February typically see weaker sales.
- Spring/Summer Spending: Warmer months boost home improvement, travel, and apparel sales.
The Census Bureau reports both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted data to account for these trends.
US Census Bureau: Role & Government Relationship
The US Census Bureau is part of the Department of Commerce and is responsible for collecting and analyzing data about the US population and economy.
- Primary Function: Conducts the decennial census (every 10 years) and produces key economic reports, including retail sales, GDP inputs, and business surveys.
- Government Relationship: A non-partisan agency provides data to the government, businesses, and the public for decision-making.
- Legal Authority: Operates under Title 13 of the US Code, which mandates data collection and ensures confidentiality of survey responses.
Online vs. Physical Store Sales
In 2024, e-commerce sales accounted for approximately 16.1% of retail sales, while physical (in-store) sales comprised about 83.9%. This reflects continued growth in online shopping, though most retail transactions still occur in physical stores.
Monthly Retail Sales Adjustments
The US Census Bureau regularly revises its retail sales data to ensure accuracy. These adjustments occur for several reasons:
- Next-Month Revisions: Initial estimates are updated in the following month’s report as more complete data becomes available.
- Annual Benchmark Revisions: Each year, the Census Bureau conducts comprehensive reviews of retail sales data, incorporating more detailed information from sources like the Economic Census and other administrative records.
Budget and Workforce of the US Census Bureau
As of the latest available data, the US Census Bureau’s budget for Fiscal Year 2025 is detailed in their Congressional Budget Submission. The bureau employs approximately 4,285 staff members.
For the most current and detailed information on retail sales and their revisions, refer to the Census Bureau’s Monthly Retail Trade reports: Census Bureau Retail Sales.