April 3, 2025
Donald Trump’s sweeping new tariffs aren’t just about trade imbalances or protecting American jobs—they’re a last-ditch effort to prevent the US from losing its economic and military supremacy to China.
At first glance, the aggressive tariffs appear to be another chapter in Trump’s “America First” playbook, a blunt-force tactic to curb the US trade deficit and rein in runaway debt. But the real target is Beijing. China’s economy, by some measures, has already surpassed America’s. Its military ambitions are expanding in lockstep with its economic might. And if the US continues to hemorrhage manufacturing capacity while drowning in debt, it won’t just be the dollar’s reserve status at risk—it will be America’s ability to project power globally.
The Missed Opportunity for Diplomacy
Trump’s approach—unilateral, combative, and designed for spectacle—could have been avoided. A more strategic administration might have quietly pressured trading partners, offering negotiations before threats. Those refusing to deal could have been singled out publicly, turning the Rose Garden announcement into a justified naming-and-shaming session. Instead, Trump chose economic shock therapy, sending a deliberate message to Beijing: The US still calls the shots.
The Military Stakes Behind the Trade War
This isn’t just about economics. China is leveraging its manufacturing dominance to fund a rapid military buildup that could soon challenge US naval superiority in the Pacific and beyond. If America’s debt crisis forces cuts to defense spending while China’s capabilities grow, the global balance of power shifts irrevocably. Trump’s tariffs are, in effect, a preemptive strike—an attempt to cripple China’s export machine before it’s too late.
The Auto Tariffs: A Bet on the Post-Labor Economy
Trump’s push to onshore auto manufacturing seems economically irrational, at least today—US labor costs are prohibitive – US$33/hour on the production line vs US$7 in China — and consumers will pay the price. But he’s playing a longer game. In a decade, human assembly-line workers will be obsolete. Robotics will equalize production costs globally — as Elon Musk has told him — and the real advantage will lie in the factories’ physical locations. If those plants remain overseas, pricing power stays with foreign competitors. Trump is forcing the issue now, knowing that once automation dominates, it’s too late to bring manufacturing home.
The Dire Alternative
If Trump’s gambit fails, the US faces a grim future: a hollowed-out industrial base, a service-sector economy of low-wage jobs, and a military reliant on foreign supply chains. China, meanwhile, would cement its position as the world’s factory for high-value goods—and, by extension, the world’s preeminent superpower.
This isn’t just a trade war. It’s a fight for economic survival. And Trump, for all his bombast, may be the only American politician willing to wage it. I applaud him for doing this as much as it pains me to say it.