November 19, 2024
(Adapted from an article in 2019 by a consultant and media adviser published in The Jordan Times. This is a divergence from the usual ‘Help You Invest’ article, but investors must try to understand the big picture.)
From the 1950s to the early 1990s, the world was split between two ideologies: Marxist socialism in the East and Western capitalist democracy. With the fall of the Soviet Union, the US emerged as the dominant global power, leading to a unipolar world order. However, the 2008/2009 financial crisis sparked discussions about a shift toward a multipolar world, distributing influence among the G8 to ease pressure on the US economy.
During this period, China and Russia rose as major global players. Today, it’s hard to define the world as strictly unipolar or multipolar, as power is distributed. The US still leads economically and militarily, but Russia has become a significant force, and China has rapidly grown into a global economic and military competitor.
China’s swift rise is due to multiple factors, including the influence of digital technology. Since the Arab Spring, technology and social media have played a huge role in shaping public opinion and political change. This has sparked a global race in artificial intelligence, with the world’s superpowers vying for tech dominance.
Digital Media and Global Power
The nature of the global order is now contested between a US-led unipolar vision and a multipolar view championed by China, Russia, and the EU. Events like alleged Russian interference in the 2016 US elections, Brexit, and French elections suggest that the battle for global influence may hinge on control over technology and digital information.
The next ideological struggle will likely be digital, with AI as a key tool. Major powers compete to influence other nations and citizens through data surveillance and social control. While many countries claim to support free expression, they also use technology to monitor and control behavior, limiting dissent and spying on foreign adversaries. This brings Western ideals of democracy into conflict with the East’s desire to guard its internal affairs.
Digital Tyranny vs. Liberal Democracies
The future of the new world order could see a digital clash between East and West. AI-driven surveillance will be central to this conflict, enabling governments to monitor and suppress damaging political discourse selectively. China’s growing investment in AI is already reshaping its priorities, shifting funds from other areas to bolster social control.
This technological competition will likely lead to a new kind of arms race. Major powers will use AI to advance their ideologies, attract allies, and expand their influence. The global stage will clash between liberal democracies, neo-liberalism, and authoritarian regimes, each leveraging digital tools to promote their vision.
As I see it, the recent Trump 2.0 victory underscores the resilience of neoliberal ideology in America. It managed to carve out a position between the “woke” liberal democracy faction on the left and the authoritarian regimes on the right that Trump often references, such as North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, Russia’s Vladimir Putin, China’s Xi Jinping, and Hungary’s Viktor Orban. This places the US in a unique position, balancing between opposing global forces while adjusting to fast-changing digital technologies. It’s no wonder that Elon Musk and Peter Thiel inserted themselves on the Trump team, for now at least.