Given that most trading in capital markets today is momentum-based buying and selling, where much of the trading is a reaction to news and directed to ETFs that are being manipulated by computer algorithms, it’s a legitimate question to ask where have all the investors gone? Is most everybody today
Signs that U.S. equities are in a bubble continue to proliferate. Although a bubble can only be confirmed in retrospect, prudent investors need to adjust their investment approach for this eventuality. It is said that the earlier you buy in a bubble, the better off you’ll be when the bubble
The “Trump rally” in U.S. stocks has gone ballistic. Even the most bullish of the bulls did not expect this. A couple weeks ago, bank strategists were forecasting a 2018 year-end target on the S&P 500 at 2850. After the first two weeks of the New Year the index is
The thirty-three (33) Oil & Gas companies of the S&P 500 will lead that important benchmark, maybe not during January, but through 2018 and beyond. The reason is simple. It’s all about revenue, cash flow and earnings growth on account of higher Crude Oil prices, rising to the level where
The headline in this Thursday’s Financial Times reads: “Commodities prices hit highest point since 2014”. The FT article begins: “The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index, which tracks price of 22 raw materials, has hit its highest level since 2014 when the oil market price crash started.” A small problem might be
Contents I. Review 2017 II. Macroeconomic Outlook III. Bonds & Yield IV. Currency Markets V. Commodities VI. Equity Markets VII. Final Thoughts for 2018 I. 2017 Market Review 2017 will go down as the year an investment strategy based on nothing more than sticking with winners shined brightest. Momentum traders
Until recently our technical interpretations of the Precious Metals charts were pointing us to a long cycle bottom at around 1050 for Gold. But, at this point, at year-end 2017, we now believe that the PM Bull cycle will coincide with the broad equity market cycle, not counter-cyclical to it,
We stopped a long time ago trying to understand today’s financial markets. Market commentators, both bullish and bearish, put forth authoritative outlooks of where the equity market is headed, complete with (seemingly) fundamentally-sound explanations. For some, this is an earnings-driven rally. For others, it’s a dangerous bubble as asset prices
This is a follow-up blog to the December 8 report: Watching a so-called investment zoom 5x or 10x or more in just weeks is a potentially extremely dangerous phenomenon. In capital markets, one’s emotions can become intense. Like any emotional roller coaster in life, the fantastic highs are almost always
This week’s article will begin with a parable. Soon, however, this piece of fiction might become source material for a Harvard Business School case study. So, recently there was a private members club with 99 men and women who had each paid $1,000 to join. At the first monthly meeting,
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