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Each time equity markets enter a corrective phase, the financial media has to find “the reason”. Without knowing “the reason” for selling, their articles would be too short and uninteresting. We posit that equity markets today are driven by animal spirits, with little regard to factors supposedly driving equity market

Since the U.S. election in November 2016, equity markets have enjoyed the “Trump Bump” or Trump rally, predicated on hopes that Trump’s policies of deregulation and tax cuts would spur economic growth. In any case, markets were also in a bubble caused by central bank money printing programs, so Trump

In the cult firm Meatballs,  Bill Murray attempts to motivate his team for a big game with an unorthodox speech  in  which  he  gets  everyone  to  chant,  “it  just  doesn’t  matter”.   That’s  about  where  we  are, collectively, as equity investors. The main reason to keep buying today is that…it just

A trade war brought on by U.S. protectionist policy may not exactly be a “black swan” event that we believe is needed to end the bull market in risk assets, but the potential disruptions to the global economy should not be minimized. Nor should the implications for profit-taking in risk

In the early 19th century, London financier Nathan Rothschild said “buy on the sound of cannons, sell on the trumpets”.  The cannons referred to the start of war (valuations are therefore attractive as disorder begins) and the trumpets refer to the peace treaty ending the conflict (at which time timid

It has been a while. Aside from a bit of turbulence at the end of 2015 and the beginning of 2016, those investors turning a blind eye to financial market risk enjoyed a winning strategy since 2011. Equity market volatility had been particularly subdued from the U.S. election in November

There are indications Crude Oil prices are going lower. There are also indications that it’s going higher. Which narrative do you believe? Oil Bears point to what they believe is over-supply caused by soaring US production, mostly from shale fields. With production increasing over +20% in less than two years,

Investor complacency was rife. Since January 2016 investors have not experienced any significant corrective action on equity markets. Volatility had been unprecedentedly subdued. The “short vol” trade was a slam-dunk that lured in many investors, most of whom did not understand the risks of trading volatility. Over the past week,