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  Everyone is saying that the correction this past week was way overdue. Few claim to be surprised by the selling. Yet if “everyone” (the majority) was prepared for the sharp sell-off we got, it seems curious that the S&P 500 still managed to drop over -6%. News this past

The past week on financial markets saw U.S. yields surge to levels not seen since 2011. As long-term Treasury yields broke well past recent ranges, it would seem that improved growth prospects, rather than an acceleration in inflation, propelled the move. We have had no inflation data points since the

The past week saw yet another Federal Reserve rate hike with the markets, on the whole, being indifferent to the fact that rates are rising (and will continue to rise). The 2-Year U.S. T-Bill rate, more sensitive to moves in the Fed Funds rate than long rates, hit a cycle

  Unsurprisingly, the past week’s news was dominated by….the trade war with China. We learn of a significant development after the Friday market close. China reportedly decided to scrap planned trade talks with the U.S. and is unlikely to sit down with Washington until after November’s mid-term elections. In addition

This past week we saw an interesting reversal in the Turkish lira. On Thursday morning, President Erdogan declared that Turkish interest rates needed to be lower to support the economy. The lira dropped over -3% against the dollar on the news. Then in the afternoon, in complete defiance of Erdogan,

  We have been working on an improved trading methodology for the Natural Resources portfolio (which we like so much that we’ll apply this methodology to Top Picks as well).  As many readers know, Bill Cara is taking a break to deal with personal and business issues.  The volatility of

Emerging market contagion was the topic of discussion this week in the financial press. While U.S. equity indexes retreated (tech stocks a bit more), we can hardly talk about a spillover of the debacle in many emerging markets, with the S&P 500 down less than 1% for the week. Fear

This past week we saw technology stocks soar in one-way trading, reminiscent of the 1998-2000 Tech Bubble. Throwing caution into the wind would be an understatement. Amazon passed $2020 per share vs. $753 in January 2017. Apple crossed above $228 (thanks Warren!) vs. $112 in January 2017. Microsoft broke above

The melt-up continues in U.S. equities. Nothing seems to go wrong (or rather be interpreted negatively by markets). Trade war negotiations between the U.S. and China broke off without a resolution. But Fed Chair Powell signaled on Friday that the central bank has no intention of accelerating the pace of