Bill Cara

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Mid-Term Elections & Year-End Rallies

A very eventful week on the financial markets. On Monday, equities indexes likely hit their low point for this phase of the correction, with the S&P 500 bouncing over +6% from the Monday session low. In preparation for the mid-term elections next week, Trump announced that he wants to reach

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Adapting to an Algo-driven market

  What do we mean by algo-driven markets? From my studies of the algorithms that started dominating trading around 2008, I understand they have the following features: Reactive to trades, not proactive, i.e., if no buying or selling, the algo is silent. Automated, therefore consistent. Rules-based, but the logic is

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Another correction

  After U.S. equity markets posted the longest streak in history without falling more than -3% from 2016 to the beginning of 2018, we have now seen two corrections in 2018. A correction is defined as a peak-to-trough decline of -10%. A few short weeks ago, the S&P 500 was

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The Risks To The Energy Trade

Volatility remained elevated this week after the equity market meltdown last week. The VIX volatility index, which had remained in the 10-15 range over the summer months, has now held above 17 the past two weeks. Markets have moved to Risk-Off mode. October has been diabolic for killing equity bull

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Rush To The Exits

  Everyone is saying that the correction this past week was way overdue. Few claim to be surprised by the selling. Yet if “everyone” (the majority) was prepared for the sharp sell-off we got, it seems curious that the S&P 500 still managed to drop over -6%. News this past

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Gold: So Ugly Its a Buy

The past week on financial markets saw U.S. yields surge to levels not seen since 2011. As long-term Treasury yields broke well past recent ranges, it would seem that improved growth prospects, rather than an acceleration in inflation, propelled the move. We have had no inflation data points since the

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The Commodity Super Cycle

The past week saw yet another Federal Reserve rate hike with the markets, on the whole, being indifferent to the fact that rates are rising (and will continue to rise). The 2-Year U.S. T-Bill rate, more sensitive to moves in the Fed Funds rate than long rates, hit a cycle

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Roll-On?

  Unsurprisingly, the past week’s news was dominated by….the trade war with China. We learn of a significant development after the Friday market close. China reportedly decided to scrap planned trade talks with the U.S. and is unlikely to sit down with Washington until after November’s mid-term elections. In addition

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Après La Pluie, Le Beau Temps

This past week we saw an interesting reversal in the Turkish lira. On Thursday morning, President Erdogan declared that Turkish interest rates needed to be lower to support the economy. The lira dropped over -3% against the dollar on the news. Then in the afternoon, in complete defiance of Erdogan,

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