Bill Cara

Help You Invest

Growing Risk Of An Earnings Recession

The weekly winning streak for U.S. stock finally came to an end in the final full week of March. Not much news this week to drive equity prices. The fall in equity prices this week was simply due to the trading algos which pushed key indexes to major resistance levels,

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Stocks Up, Bonds Up. Which Market Is Wrong?

Nine weeks of gains for U.S. stocks. Credit for the rally again goes to “trade hopes” (the media is at a loss in explaining this rally). But in reality, this is a momentum squeeze trade, killing all those who assumed a second down-leg in stocks would follow the December crash.

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An Unpriced Risk For Equities?

Make it eight weeks of gains for U.S. stocks. No one foresaw more than a short-covering rally in December. When everyone thinks the same way, the market will go the other way. The rally since December 24 is more amazing than the rally to start 2018 on news of the

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End Of Fed Tightening. Stocks Watch Out Below!

The six week rally in U.S. stocks fizzled out this week. As has been the case of late, new on the Trade War front got credit for reversing down gains early in the week. President Trump on Thursday said he would not meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping before the

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Fed-Up…And Then Some

It has been an interesting two months on financial markets. After the worst month of December for U.S. equites since the 1930s, we got the best January since 1987. Wild market swings on very little change in macro fundamentals. Obviously speculation over the popping of the equity bubble and forced

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Gold & Goldminers: A Time To Buy

  If it’s not a melt-down, it’s a melt-up. December’s ugly persistent sell-off — with the S&P 500 collapsing – 16% in the month before coming off the worst levels, has turned into a V-shaped swing in the indexes. January’s equity performance is looking like a mirror image of December,

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May You Live In Interesting Times

The December equity meltdown saw most equity investors throw in the towel. Our WMA U.S. Composition Market Risk Indicator indeed fell into the capitulation zone. Everyone who had fears of the Fed Equity Bubble popping sold their holdings. Fund managers took defensive action to raise cash and/or hedge positions. As

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Looking at F-Score Variations

In last week’s article, “It’s A Stocks Picker’s Market. Here’s How We Are Picking Them”, we outlined our use of our fundamental ranking methodology in building a high-quality portfolio. In that article, we focused on our system of company fundamentals that we use to calculate composite “F-scores” for Growth, Value

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It’s A Stock Picker’s Market. Here’s How We Are Picking Them

What a first week of the year for stocks! First, a mildly negative PMI manufacturing number out of China, halts the relief rally in equities. Next, Apple warns of slowing revenue growth, due especially to a slowdown in sales in China with the trade conflict. A goofball Trump economic advisor

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