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Briefing Document: Global Markets Navigator Report Excerpts (GM.Nav.21 – June 1, 2025)

1. Introduction and Scope:

This document provides a review of excerpts from the “Global Markets Navigator Report (GM.Nav.21)” dated June 1, 2025. The report appears to be a comprehensive analysis of global financial markets, focusing on various asset classes, geographic regions, and investment strategies. It covers non-US sector analysis, investing in emerging markets, key industries, companies, ETFs, weekly performance, country currencies, and international Foreign Exchange. The scope of the non-US sector analysis includes Europe (Netherlands, Nordic Group, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Finland), Southern Europe, Middle East & Africa (Turkey, Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, South Africa), and Asia (Turkey, India, Indonesia, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Hong Kong, China, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan).

2. Global Economic and Market Overview:

The report provides insights into the performance and trends of key global markets and asset classes for the week ending May 31, 2025.

  • Dow Theory and Dow Indexes: The report highlights the importance of the three Dow indexes (DJIA, DJTA, DJUA) as underlying the Dow Theory, which is presented as a “legitimate foundation as a reflection of asset valuation– the US economy, unlike cryptocurrency.”
  • Dow 30 Stocks (Week Ending May 31, 2025): Experienced “modest gains this week, up approximately +0.2%”. Key trends included “Tech Stabilization” (led by Microsoft and Amazon), “Defensive Strength” (Consumer staples like Coca-Cola and Procter & Gamble), and “Financials Resilient” (Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan).
  • Dow Jones Utilities Average (DJUA): Rose approximately “+0.5% this week, supported by defensive investor interest and stable dividend yields.” Renewable energy companies, such as NextEra Energy, outperformed.
  • Precious Metals:
  • Gold (Spot and Futures) showed weekly declines but remained stable YTD with significant 3-year gains (+79.06% and +79.58% respectively).
  • Silver (Spot and Futures) also saw weekly dips but positive YTD performance and strong 3-year gains (over +52%).
  • Platinum exhibited short-term strength YTD (+15.70%) despite a weekly decline.
  • Palladium continued its “long-term decline” with significant 3-year losses (-51.09%).
  • Industrial Metals:
  • Copper remained a “leader despite weekly dip,” showing strong YTD (+16.74%) and 3-year (+9.34%) performance.
  • Zinc and Nickel continued to “struggle YTD and long-term.”
  • Energy:
  • Natural Gas “weakens significantly this week” and showed considerable YTD and 3-year losses.
  • Crude Oil (WTI and Brent) showed weekly declines and significant YTD and 3-year losses.
  • Gasoline and Heating Oil also experienced weekly, YTD, and 3-year declines.
  • Softs:
  • Cocoa stood out with a substantial 3-year gain (+287.95%) despite a slight weekly dip.
  • Orange Juice showed strong 3-year growth (+61.09%) but weekly and YTD losses.
  • Coffee C had positive YTD (+7.02%) and 3-year (+47.98%) performance despite a weekly decline.
  • Sugar showed weekly and YTD losses and a 3-year decline.

3. Global Government Debt and Treasury Yields:

The report provides a detailed analysis of Global 10-year Treasury Yields as of the week ending May 30, 2025.

  • Highest Yields: Turkey had the highest yield at 33.75%, reflecting “extreme sovereign risk and inflation expectations.” Other high yields were observed in Russia (15.77%), Brazil (14.03%), Colombia (12.39%), and South Africa (10.14%).
  • Lowest Yields: Switzerland had the lowest yield at 0.30%, attributed to “Flight-to-safety and low inflation economy.” Other low yields were in Taiwan (1.58%), Japan (1.50%), and China (1.70%).
  • Biggest Decliners (1 Week): Poland, New Zealand, and Japan saw the largest declines in yields.
  • Biggest Gainers (YTD): Japan, Turkey, Switzerland, and Denmark experienced significant increases in yields.
  • Caution Zones: The report highlights Turkey and Russia for high nominal returns but warns that “risks (currency depreciation, capital controls) outweigh yield.” Emerging Asia (Malaysia, Singapore) is noted for “Yields falling and the economic slowdown could spook investors.” Switzerland is cautioned as “not as safe a haven as before” due to significant YTD yield rebounds.
  • Flight to Quality: Germany, Switzerland, and US treasuries are still considered “viable for hedging and capital preservation.”
  • Japan Watch: The report notes the “Potential for policy-driven surprises; yields spiking from ultra-low base.”
  • US 10-Year Treasury Yield: Dropped -2.3% for the week as “investors see less risk.” The current rate, around 4.42%, is noted, with a potential risk-off shift from stocks to bonds if it rises to approximately 4.7%. The report also highlights the impact of higher yields on mortgage loans and notes that a “massive amount of debt is coming due this year.”

4. Currencies and Forex:

The report lists the “40 most important forex pairs for daily traders” based on “liquidity, trading volume, and relevance to global markets.” These are presented as Forex/USD pairs. A separate list details numerous other currency pairs, including those involving the Euro, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and others. The New Zealand Dollar is mentioned as “not a significant world currency.”

5. Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency:

The report explores Bitcoin within the context of whether it serves as a form of money, drawing a comparison to Gold. It frames the discussion around the traditional economic functions of money:

  1. Medium of exchange: “Something used to facilitate transactions.”
  2. Unit of account: “A standard measurement of value.”
  3. Store of value: “Something that maintains purchasing power over time.” The report states that the definition of Bitcoin as money or currency is “nuanced and depends on how we define these terms.” The report also mentions discussing Bitcoin, Blockchain, and Crypto assets in the US Markets section, which is not included in the provided excerpts.

6. Investment Strategies and Analysis Tools:

The report briefly outlines a scoring system based on technical indicators (RSI, Stochastic, MACD, ADX, Williams %R, CCI, and ATR) and moving averages to generate “Buy,” “Sell,” or neutral signals. These signals are combined to provide an “Overall Rating” ranging from Strong Buy to Strong Sell.

7. Company and Sector Analysis (Non-US Focus):

The report provides extensive lists of companies and ETFs for various geographic regions and sectors, along with some performance data and assessments.

  • High-Quality US Companies: A list of 31 US companies rated as “Highest Quality” based on “stringent selection criteria” is provided. This list includes prominent names across various sectors, such as technology (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet), healthcare (Johnson & Johnson, Eli Lilly), financial services (JPMorgan Chase, Mastercard, Visa), and industrials (Caterpillar, Lockheed Martin).
  • Industrial Sector Stocks (US Bellwethers): A selection of “industry bellwethers” is listed, including companies in waste management, construction services, airlines, data processing, aerospace, transportation, and machinery.
  • Consumer Discretionary Stocks (US Bellwethers and ETF Performance): A watchlist of industry bellwethers in the Consumer Discretionary sector is provided, including companies in toys, hospitality, automotive parts, sporting goods, e-commerce, home improvement, and electric vehicles. The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR® Fund (XLY) showed strong 1-week, 1-month, 1-year, and 3-year performance, despite a YTD decline.
  • Biotechnology Industry: The report includes links to charts for the Biotechnology Index ($BTK and $NBI) and a selection of individual biotech stock charts.
  • Goldminer Stocks: A list of “Key Producers” in the gold mining sector is provided, including major companies and those focused on Silver.
  • Regional Market Performance (Week Ended May 24, 2025): Mexico (Dow Jones Mexico): Slight weekly loss (-0.76%) but strong YTD performance (+15.54%), reflecting “nearshoring trends.”
  • Asia-Pacific: KOSPI (South Korea) “Led global gains with a 4.07% weekly surge,” driven by tech and chip exports. Nikkei 225 (Japan) gained, reversing some losses. Taiwan Weighted saw a weekly dip but positive monthly performance due to “ongoing semiconductor demand.” Jakarta Composite (Indonesia) had a slight weekly dip but was positive for the month.
  • International Bellwether Stocks by Sector: A comprehensive table categorizes international companies across various sectors (Oil & Gas, Basic Materials, Industrials and Transports, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Healthcare, Financials, Information Technology, Telecommunications, Utilities) with their country and sub-sector. Notable examples include Petrobras (Brazil), BHP Group (Australia), Volkswagen (Germany), LVMH (France), Nestlé (Switzerland), Novo Nordisk (Denmark), ICBC (China), SAP (Germany), Deutsche Telekom (Germany), and Engie (France).
  • Defense Stocks (Non-US): Lists key defense contractors in Europe (BAE Systems, Airbus, Thales Group, Leonardo, Rheinmetall, Saab AB, Dassault Aviation, KNDS), Asia-Pacific (Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Korea Aerospace Industries, Hanwha Aerospace, Hindustan Aeronautics, Bharat Electronics, Elbit Systems), and other regions (Embraer, Turkish Aerospace Industries, Israel Aerospace Industries).
  • Major International Mining Companies: Details diversified mining giants (BHP Group, Rio Tinto, Vale SA, Glencore, Freeport-McMoRan, Anglo American, Fortescue Metals Group, Ivanhoe Mines) and Critical Minerals Specialists (Albemarle, Pilbara Minerals, Mineral Resources, SQM). It highlights their primary, secondary, and critical mineral portfolios and major operations.
  • Alternative Energy (Selected Companies): Lists key companies in Electric Vehicles (Tesla, BYD, Nio), Batteries & Energy Storage (Contemporary Amperex Technology, LG Energy Solution, Panasonic Holdings, Samsung SDI), and Hydrogen & Fuel Cells (Nel ASA, ITM Power, Ceres Power).
  • Country-Specific Company Lists and ETFs: Extensive lists of companies trading on local exchanges are provided for numerous countries, including those in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia. Information on country-specific ETFs trading both domestically and in the US is also included, along with links to resources for tracking these instruments.
  • International Mutual Funds: A table provides key metrics (weekly, monthly, YTD, and 1-year returns) for a selection of International Mutual Funds targeting developed and emerging markets outside the US. YTD returns ranged from 11.66% to 19.67%.
  • Company Spotlights and Risks (Examples): The report includes detailed analyses of individual companies like ASML (Netherlands), Novo Nordisk (Denmark), DBS Group (Singapore), Roche (Switzerland), STMicroelectronics (Switzerland), and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (Taiwan), highlighting their strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. Geopolitical risks, regulatory pressures, and competition are frequently mentioned as threats.

8. Regional and Country-Specific Insights:

The report provides some targeted observations on specific regions and countries:

  • Europe: Mentioned as dominating the watchlist (28 stocks), with strengths in Industrials and Technology and high yields from companies like Rio Tinto and ING. Countries highlighted include Germany, France, the UK, the Netherlands, Spain, and Italy.
  • China: Represented by 5 stocks in the watchlist, with strengths in Alibaba and Tencent but risks due to “Regulatory pressures.”
  • Japan: Included with 8 stocks in the watchlist, showing strengths in Financials and Consumer Cyclical sectors, and noted for “Stability: Low volatility.”
  • Canada: Featured with 6 stocks, exhibiting strengths in Materials (mining) and Financials.
  • Emerging Markets: Brazil and India are specifically mentioned for strong YTD performance in certain stocks.
  • Germany: Described as “Europe’s largest economy” with a “robust capital market and regulatory system,” emphasizing its “advanced automotive, chemical, and electronics industries” and role as the “world’s 3rd largest exporter.”
  • Netherlands: Indices and popular ETFs are listed in Amsterdam, along with resources for tracking Dutch stocks and ADRs.
  • India: NIFTY is identified as the “usable benchmark NSE index,” with various CNX-prefixed indices tracking specific sectors. Key perennial leaders, such as ICICI Bank and Infosys, are noted.
  • New Zealand: The New Zealand Dollar is deemed “not a significant world currency.” Indices, larger companies, and ETFs are listed, along with information on ADRs.
  • Switzerland: Highlighted for its low bond yields (though they have rebounded YTD) and the strategic positioning of companies like STMicroelectronics navigating geopolitical rules.

9. Long/Short Recommendations:

The report provides specific Long recommendations based on performance and growth potential while also acknowledging associated risks:

  • NVIDIA (NVDA): Recommended Long for its “623.78% 3-year return, AI and semiconductor growth.” Risk: “High volatility (Beta 2.1).”
  • MercadoLibre (MELI): Recommended Long for its “50.72% YTD, dominant in Latin American e-commerce.” Risk: “Currency fluctuations.”
  • Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM): Recommended Long as a “safe-haven precious metal.” Risk: “Commodity price swings.”
  • Itau Unibanco (ITUB): Recommended Long for “strong Brazilian financials.” Risk: “Economic instability.”

10. Key Facts and Figures:

  • Turkey’s 10Y Treasury yield is the highest at 33.75%.
  • Switzerland’s 10Y Treasury yield is the lowest at 0.30%.
  • Japan’s 10Y Treasury yield had the biggest YTD gain (+38.63%).
  • Gold and Silver have shown significant 3-year gains (around +79% and +52% respectively).
  • Cocoa has experienced a remarkable 3-year gain (+287.95%).
  • Palladium has seen a significant 3-year decline (-51.09%).
  • Copper is noted as a leading industrial metal with strong YTD performance.
  • The US 10-year Treasury yield was around 4.42% as of May 30, 2025.
  • The Dow 30 was up approximately +0.2% for the week ending May 31, 2025.
  • The Dow Utilities was up approximately +0.5% for the same week.
  • KOSPI (South Korea) led global gains with a 4.07% weekly surge.
  • ASML (Netherlands) is a key player in the lithography systems industry.
  • Novo Nordisk (Denmark) is a leader in diabetes care.
  • TSMC (Taiwan) is the world’s largest semiconductor foundry, with a market share of ~60%.

Conclusion:

The provided excerpts from the “Global Markets Navigator Report (GM.Nav.21)” offer a broad snapshot of the global financial landscape as of early June 2025. Key themes include the varying performance of global indices, the impact of inflation and sovereign risk on bond yields (especially in emerging markets), the resilience and challenges within specific sectors (such as tech, financials, defense, mining, and energy), and the performance of commodities and currencies. The report emphasizes the importance of both macroeconomic factors and individual company fundamentals, while also exploring the nuanced nature of emerging asset classes, such as Bitcoin. The inclusion of detailed lists of companies, ETFs, and technical analysis tools underscores the report’s focus on providing actionable information for investors navigating international markets. The cautious notes on geopolitical risks and regulatory pressures indicate the complex environment faced by global investors.