Bill Cara

Bill’s Current Thinking, September 28, 2016

The world is soon to discover a much higher price of oil, first to $50, then $60, then possibly to $90-$100 or higher. The two year Bear Market in Oil is over or will be as soon as OPEC countries and non-OPEC countries agree to cap production. The meetings are being held today in Algeria.

Crude Oil Price ($WTIC): wtic-sept-28-2016-0700

As per information from the International Energy Agency (IEA) data and report, demand this quarter has finally outstripped supply. For two years, the world’s oil industry has not been able to produce oil at a profit. Investment inflow has stopped. Simple economics tells us the oil price is going higher. Soon.

As I see it, despite the caveats in the most recent IEA report, Oil stocks are the Buy of the Generation.

World Oil Supply (IEA): world-oil-supply-sept-2016

World Oil Demand (IEA): world-oil-demand-sept-2016

At 10:30am ET this morning, the EIA Petroleum status Report will be released. An announcement of reserves draw-down will send the price higher. To combine that with a positive report from the IEA meeting today would be the key reversal I have been waiting for.

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