Bill Cara

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A Trump Executive Order Could Open the $9 Trillion US Retirement Market to Private Equity: Is This What the Public Wants or Needs?

May 21, 2025 Trump is reportedly considering an executive order enabling private equity firms to access the nearly $9 trillion US retirement savings market directly, specifically through 401(k) plans. If enacted, the order would instruct key regulatory agencies—including the Department of Labor, the Treasury, and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)—to

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The Global Markets Navigator Report May 18, 2025: Reviewed

May 18, 2025 This extensive 660-page report, Bill Cara’s Global Markets Weekly Navigator Report, analyzes the state of global markets as of May 18, 2025, offering guidance on navigating economic uncertainty. It assesses recession risks, particularly in the US, and the impact of political factors like trade policies and debt downgrades on market performance. The

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Trump’s Middle East Business Deals: Legal Risks and Investor Implications

May 14, 2025 This week, former President Donald Trump announced a series of high-profile business ventures in the Middle East, including a $400 million aircraft deal, real estate developments (golf courses and high-rises), and cryptocurrency initiatives tied to his family. The scale and timing of these agreements have drawn bipartisan scrutiny in Washington,

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Investing in the Context of Global Politics

May 4, 2025 A New Era of Global Economic Confrontation The world economy is increasingly shaped by state-driven power plays, and investors must adapt to an environment defined not just by market fundamentals but by aggressive policy shifts, geopolitical anxiety, and systemic realignment. The return of the Trump administration has

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Significance of Microsoft’s AI Results & the $300B Market Cap Surge

May 1, 2025 Key Question: Are the Q3 FY2025 AI-driven results fundamentally strong enough to justify a +9% stock surge (~$300B market cap gain)? 1. Why the Market is Reacting So Positively The +9% pre-market jump (adding ~$300B in market cap) reflects three major AI-driven catalysts: A. Azure AI Growth Acceleration (33% YoY vs. 29% Last Quarter)

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Major Foreign Owners of US Bonds & Equities

April 25, 2025 (Estimates in USD, based on latest disclosures, TIC data, and annual reports) Institution Country Total US Assets US Equities US Bonds/Fixed Income Other US Assets (Real Estate, Alternatives) Notes Norges Bank Investment Mgmt (NBIM) Norway ~450–450–500B ~350–350–400B ~50–50–100B Minimal World’s largest SWF; heavy focus on US tech

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My rating of the World’s Highest Quality Companies

April 24, 2025 I evaluated candidates using the following metrics: strong corporate fundamentals, a wide economic moat, dividend consistency, economic resilience, a long-term outlook, sector diversity, and a global perspective. All companies must trade in the US (including on the OTC market) as well as on their domestic exchanges, ensuring

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US tourism advertising campaign is hurting $2.9 trillion industry

April 24, 2025 A multi-million-dollar TV campaign in Mexico by US Homeland Security is (a) being stopped by the Mexican government, and (b) going viral worldwide, causing many countries to file US travel warnings. The ‘We will hunt you down’ theme, and the evidence that some innocent travelers have been

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Welltower vs European and US REITs

April 25, 2025 When I compared Healthcare REIT Welltower (WELL) to some of the European REITs I am investigating, I discovered that there are no direct healthcare REIT equivalents at scale in Europe that are similar. Welltower’s Key Characteristics Comparison to European REITs Vonovia (Germany): Segro (UK/Pan-European): Gecina (France): Comparison

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