IMF economic projections are astounding, but likely accurate.
The International Monetary Fund has downgraded its global growth projections for 2025 and 2026, from 3.3% to 2.8% for 2025 and from 3.3% to 3.0% for 2026.
For the US, the IMF projects that economic growth will drop from the prior forecast of 2.7% to 1.8%, and for China, from 4.6% to 4.0%.
China, Russia, Iran, and Venezuela are countries aligned in opposition to the IMF. The US essentially controls the IMF and uses it to promote fiscal austerity and market-driven reforms. So, the IMF data is likely not a contentious matter with the US Administration.
Many US bankers are projecting weaker economic growth than the IMF if the tariff wars continue without mutually negotiated trade deals.
Not sure how pertinent or predictive this is. 5% of the stocks in the SPY are in overbought territory. 87% are in between 40-60 RSI. 7% are below 40 RSI. So 94% of the SPY is below the 60 RSI. According to my count, the last time it was this high was March 24th which continued to a lousy week and terrible April so far.
Oilfield Services, Halliburton and Baker Hughes Q1 earnings so far in line. Continued softness in N. America expected, this is already reflected in the share price moves but could still see lower. Obviously this sector is oil price dependent.
E&Ps, I like some of the smaller companies for future exploration and growth. APA and Murphy already have a couple of significant discoveries in Alaska, Suriname, and Vietnam. Magnolia Oil & Gas.
For my middle-class account, these are 300-share positions.
The Best Quality US Company Stocks are Still Overpriced
Every week in my Global Market Navigator Report, I run an analysis of the Global Best 50 Companies list. I have 15 US companies and 35 outside the US, including 30 in Europe and Asia. Every day, I capture 40 fundamental, technical, and price data points in my database, which I then analyze and utilize to inform my decisions.
I do the same for almost 800 US-listed stocks and nearly 400 ex-US-listed stocks. However, the Global Best list is specifically for portfolio management, while the entire list is intended for research purposes.
The 50 Global Best companies have an average yield of 2.06%, which includes 1.53% for US companies and 2.26% for non-US companies. The average PE ratio of all 50 is 26.6, which includes a US average of 30.8 and a non-US average of 24.9.
The US stocks are relatively overpriced.
I also calculate a technical score. US stocks are bearish at -21.0 on a scale of plus and minus 100. The non-US stocks are slightly bullish, at +9.1.
This is a list of companies. When the Global Market Navigator Report goes live on Substack, I will be offering model portfolios a few weeks later.
The Global Best 50 Companies will soon be rebranded as the Global Best 100. There will be 30 US-headquartered companies and 70 from abroad. I have started in Europe, where investors are currently putting their money, and will expand that part of the list from 17 to 35. All will be traded on the NYSE, NASDAQ, or OTC in addition to their domestic markets. I am presently at 70 companies, so I have some work to do.
jimg
April 21, 2025 9:42 am
#46349
Oilprice.com penned a concise summary covering the situation in oil on April 13.
NY times which is usually left leaning, actually have been doing a decent job being neutral in their “The Daily” podcast. One example is the latest re Meta case on DC. #META #Facebook https://open.spotify.com/episode/2g2hUu7FX7xB6Io80ZqLip
Following a peer review, I decided to restructure the book and lower the price. So instead of publishing on Tuesday, The Maverick’s Edge will be released a week later at US$14.95.
The highest level in Free Mason is 33rd Degree. It is no coincidence the NY Federal Reserve Building is located at 33 Liberty St, NY. With the clean font displayed proudly “33”Here is a list of some of the famous Free Masons https://mdmasons.org/about-md-masons/famous-masons/
Never happened before. The top 1% has more wealth than the entire middle class. My take. The mob doesn’t know how or what will fix this so we will continue to vote for leaders promising to save the 99% but will be enriching their own causes. Both sides. Just look at history. The French revolution comes to mind. The revolutionists thought they won. They got the same one rebranded skin. https://youtu.be/I1SnGXWsE5M
I saw an interview with Chris Rock once where he made the comment. “If people only knew how much money rich people have, there would be riots in the streets” I thought, you know I think that is true. Most folks don’t hold any grudge against people with more money than them. It’s America, we envie them! However I don’t believe most average americans really understand how MUCH money the wealthy have. How unequal things really are in this society. I have a boat in Florida which I will take up and down the coast in the winter. Just cruising down the intercostal waterway is mind blowing. So much money there. 1500 miles of it. Some guy in Nebraska has no idea.
There was an interview years ago on 60 minutes with Sen Ted Kaufman (I believe) on some financial crisis issue. He said something along the lines of :
“There’s a River of Money Flowing Through this Country. Most Don’t Even Know it Exists. Some get a Glimpse of it Occasionally AND Some are SWIMMING In It.”
Long before King Trump, for decades, Republicans were all about spend and cut taxes for the rich. Now, the arsonists have been hired to put out the fire. The 2017 Trump tax cuts: Households with incomes in the top 1 percent will receive an average tax cut of more than $60,000 in 2025, compared to an average tax cut of less than $500 for households in the bottom 60 percent, according to the Tax Policy Center (TPC). As a share of after tax income, tax cuts at the top, for both households in the top 1 percent and the top 5 percent, are more than triple the total value of the tax cuts received for people with incomes in the bottom 60 percent.
Thanks, Alexx. Confirms my bias that the pain in the US is just beginning. Most US investor/gamblers have been conditioned to buy the dips. Even I have trouble selling out positions that have been so good to me. I keep working at derisking. Investing was too much fun for far too long. Not so much fun now.
“I believe there have been three great pillars of investing success over the past 20+ years: US home country bias, US tech bias, and US dollar bias. I believe that all three of these are now melting icebergs, with enough mass to melt for a decade or more. That’s the backdrop for a Prisoners Dilemma portfolio, basically doing the reverse of what’s worked on autopilot for the past 20 years.”
Can you imagine a US-based hedge fund having a large short position in Trump Media?
Since the short float is reported to be 10.4%, some Americans are likely short.
There are firms on the other side, of course, as reported today: “Earlier this week, DJT joined forces with two investment firms to launch Truth Social-branded Separately Managed Accounts, expected to “offer investors access to curated, thematic investment strategies rooted in American values and priorities.”
This is potentially going to hurt risk asset prices tonight and Sunday. A strong inflation figure would allow the Bank of Japan to increase interest rates and normalize its monetary policy. Raising rates would hurt the yen carry trade. Japan inflation comes in at 3.6%, surpasses BOJ target for three straight years Published Thu, Apr 17 20257:39 PM EDT
Not many are talking housing. Reckoning is here. 400,000 foreclosures are being prevented today. Add rising inventory, low affordability and day on market you now have a powder keg.
Major Foreign Owners of US Stocks and Bonds.
https://billcara.com/help-you-invest/major-foreign-owners-of-u-s-bonds-equities/
I have a deep dive report on this important subject in this weekend’s Navigator Report.
Technicals:
“Forget the Zweig breadth thrust – the NYSE just triggered a SuperZweig.”
https://x.com/jasongoepfert/status/1915496462529814689
My selection of the world’s Best of the Best Companies.
https://billcara.com/help-you-invest/my-rating-of-the-worlds-highest-quality-companies/
IMF economic projections are astounding, but likely accurate.
The International Monetary Fund has downgraded its global growth projections for 2025 and 2026, from 3.3% to 2.8% for 2025 and from 3.3% to 3.0% for 2026.
For the US, the IMF projects that economic growth will drop from the prior forecast of 2.7% to 1.8%, and for China, from 4.6% to 4.0%.
China, Russia, Iran, and Venezuela are countries aligned in opposition to the IMF. The US essentially controls the IMF and uses it to promote fiscal austerity and market-driven reforms. So, the IMF data is likely not a contentious matter with the US Administration.
Many US bankers are projecting weaker economic growth than the IMF if the tariff wars continue without mutually negotiated trade deals.
Deep Dive into US Tourism
https://billcara.com/help-you-invest/us-tourism-advertising-campaign-is-hurting-2-9-trillion-industry/
Not sure how pertinent or predictive this is. 5% of the stocks in the SPY are in overbought territory. 87% are in between 40-60 RSI. 7% are below 40 RSI. So 94% of the SPY is below the 60 RSI. According to my count, the last time it was this high was March 24th which continued to a lousy week and terrible April so far.
Oilfield Services, Halliburton and Baker Hughes Q1 earnings so far in line. Continued softness in N. America expected, this is already reflected in the share price moves but could still see lower. Obviously this sector is oil price dependent.
E&Ps, I like some of the smaller companies for future exploration and growth.
APA and Murphy already have a couple of significant discoveries in Alaska, Suriname, and Vietnam. Magnolia Oil & Gas.
For my middle-class account, these are 300-share positions.
Because Healthcare is currently a popular safe haven, I looked into European healthcare REITs, but I discovered nothing of interest to investors.
https://billcara.com/help-you-invest/welltower-vs-european-and-us-reits/
Big distribution days followed by big accumulation days. The big difference today was the number of new highs.
Monthly chart of SP500 and the notable decline of Open Interest since 2020:
Critical thinking in investing.
https://billcara.com/help-you-invest/critical-thinking-in-investing-seeing-beyond-the-market-price/
Thanks for putting investments into perspective. Buy side must give us a good reason to buy
The Best Quality US Company Stocks are Still Overpriced
Every week in my Global Market Navigator Report, I run an analysis of the Global Best 50 Companies list. I have 15 US companies and 35 outside the US, including 30 in Europe and Asia. Every day, I capture 40 fundamental, technical, and price data points in my database, which I then analyze and utilize to inform my decisions.
I do the same for almost 800 US-listed stocks and nearly 400 ex-US-listed stocks. However, the Global Best list is specifically for portfolio management, while the entire list is intended for research purposes.
The 50 Global Best companies have an average yield of 2.06%, which includes 1.53% for US companies and 2.26% for non-US companies. The average PE ratio of all 50 is 26.6, which includes a US average of 30.8 and a non-US average of 24.9.
The US stocks are relatively overpriced.
I also calculate a technical score. US stocks are bearish at -21.0 on a scale of plus and minus 100. The non-US stocks are slightly bullish, at +9.1.
Industrials, some great companies. P/E has come down to the 15-18 range, but what happens if next year’s earnings turn out to be massive losses:
CAT P/E 15
CMI P/E 13
HON P/E 19
As the price falls, the value increases!
This is a list of companies. When the Global Market Navigator Report goes live on Substack, I will be offering model portfolios a few weeks later.
The Global Best 50 Companies will soon be rebranded as the Global Best 100. There will be 30 US-headquartered companies and 70 from abroad. I have started in Europe, where investors are currently putting their money, and will expand that part of the list from 17 to 35. All will be traded on the NYSE, NASDAQ, or OTC in addition to their domestic markets. I am presently at 70 companies, so I have some work to do.
Oilprice.com penned a concise summary covering the situation in oil on April 13.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Saudi-Arabias-Next-Move-Could-Hit-Oil-Prices-Hard.html
NY times which is usually left leaning, actually have been doing a decent job being neutral in their “The Daily” podcast. One example is the latest re Meta case on DC.
#META #Facebook
https://open.spotify.com/episode/2g2hUu7FX7xB6Io80ZqLip
Here is the link to a 20:07-minute DeepMind audio of this week’s Global Market Navigator Report. 654 pages.
https://notebooklm.google.com/notebook/00010305-befd-48f7-9e95-4ef3b7894535/audio
Thank you Bill!
The Maverick’s Edge publishing date
Following a peer review, I decided to restructure the book and lower the price. So instead of publishing on Tuesday, The Maverick’s Edge will be released a week later at US$14.95.
Industry-Specific ETFs
The highest level in Free Mason is 33rd Degree. It is no coincidence the NY Federal Reserve Building is located at 33 Liberty St, NY. With the clean font displayed proudly “33”Here is a list of some of the famous Free Masons https://mdmasons.org/about-md-masons/famous-masons/
Never happened before. The top 1% has more wealth than the entire middle class.
My take. The mob doesn’t know how or what will fix this so we will continue to vote for leaders promising to save the 99% but will be enriching their own causes. Both sides. Just look at history. The French revolution comes to mind. The revolutionists thought they won. They got the same one rebranded skin.
https://youtu.be/I1SnGXWsE5M
From my college day’s… https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Anatomy_of_Revolution#:~:text=The%20Anatomy%20of%20Revolution%20is,French%2C%20and%20the%20Russian%20revolutions.
https://vdoc.pub/search/anatomy%20revolution
I saw an interview with Chris Rock once where he made the comment. “If people only knew how much money rich people have, there would be riots in the streets” I thought, you know I think that is true. Most folks don’t hold any grudge against people with more money than them. It’s America, we envie them! However I don’t believe most average americans really understand how MUCH money the wealthy have. How unequal things really are in this society. I have a boat in Florida which I will take up and down the coast in the winter. Just cruising down the intercostal waterway is mind blowing. So much money there. 1500 miles of it. Some guy in Nebraska has no idea.
There was an interview years ago on 60 minutes with Sen Ted Kaufman (I believe) on some financial crisis issue. He said something along the lines of :
“There’s a River of Money Flowing Through this Country. Most Don’t Even Know it Exists. Some get a Glimpse of it Occasionally AND Some are SWIMMING In It.”
I just finish reading –The French revolution, fascinating!!
Long before King Trump, for decades, Republicans were all about spend and cut taxes for the rich. Now, the arsonists have been hired to put out the fire. The 2017 Trump tax cuts: Households with incomes in the top 1 percent will receive an average tax cut of more than $60,000 in 2025, compared to an average tax cut of less than $500 for households in the bottom 60 percent, according to the Tax Policy Center (TPC). As a share of after tax income, tax cuts at the top, for both households in the top 1 percent and the top 5 percent, are more than triple the total value of the tax cuts received for people with incomes in the bottom 60 percent.
Found this somewhere: Current crash against major ones
Thanks, Alexx. Confirms my bias that the pain in the US is just beginning. Most US investor/gamblers have been conditioned to buy the dips. Even I have trouble selling out positions that have been so good to me. I keep working at derisking. Investing was too much fun for far too long. Not so much fun now.
Fully agree.
“I believe there have been three great pillars of investing success over the past 20+ years: US home country bias, US tech bias, and US dollar bias. I believe that all three of these are now melting icebergs, with enough mass to melt for a decade or more. That’s the backdrop for a Prisoners Dilemma portfolio, basically doing the reverse of what’s worked on autopilot for the past 20 years.”
A UK hedge fund has a large short position in DJT; Trump demands an investigation.
Can you imagine a US-based hedge fund having a large short position in Trump Media?
Since the short float is reported to be 10.4%, some Americans are likely short.
There are firms on the other side, of course, as reported today: “Earlier this week, DJT joined forces with two investment firms to launch Truth Social-branded Separately Managed Accounts, expected to “offer investors access to curated, thematic investment strategies rooted in American values and priorities.”
Stock markets worldwide are closed today, except for those in China (except Hong Kong), Taiwan, Korea, and Japan.
Japan was up +1%, while China was flat. The others were slightly higher.
This is potentially going to hurt risk asset prices tonight and Sunday. A strong inflation figure would allow the Bank of Japan to increase interest rates and normalize its monetary policy. Raising rates would hurt the yen carry trade.
Japan inflation comes in at 3.6%, surpasses BOJ target for three straight years
Published Thu, Apr 17 20257:39 PM EDT
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/18/japan-inflation-comes-in-at-3point6percent-surpasses-boj-target-for-three-straight-years-.html
Not many are talking housing. Reckoning is here. 400,000 foreclosures are being prevented today. Add rising inventory, low affordability and day on market you now have a powder keg.
https://youtu.be/M7jq6h1D0PE