On my watchlist of 33 goldminers, SKE performed best for 1-week (with a small loss), 2nd best for 1-month and 3-month, and 3rd best for 1-year performance.
It’s one of those I never stuck with after buying in early, even though I met management several times. I know several of you have invested.
FOMO isn’t just a local phenomenon; it’s a global force.
This morning, markets are showing continued price weakness both at home and abroad.
Sellers are firmly in control, not because of Fed Chair Jay Powell, Congress’s failure to pass a spending bill, or reports of drones over New Jersey. Instead, the prevailing view among sellers is that securities prices are fundamentally overvalued.
Adding to the downward pressure, international wealth funds—driven by FOMO (Fear of Missing Out)—have seen disappointing performance in high-profile investments like NVDA, META, TSLA, GOOG, AMZN, and AAPL.
FOMO is human nature, much like the ebb tide lowering boats worldwide.
NQ..For years back in the early 2000’s I used to day trade the NQ quite a bit. I was pretty good, but the nasdaq can be a wild animal most of the time. NQ typically overshoots its targets and I had too move away from it because I was staying up way to late to watch the different stock exchange openings and how the NQ would react. You would see at times that most of the dirty work done by the BOTS was done after the NYSE closed. Now I know this market is 24 hours, but the volume at night is nowhere near when the market is open. Most of my money was made while others in the USA were sleeping. My wife made me chose, stay married and STOP trading all night or move out…Well, I am still happily married…So my days of day trading NQ are long gone. I still like to watch it and gain insight to see how the ALGO BOTS are feeding and if they are taking profits at night like the good ole days….They took 400 off in the overnight..So it looks like they will try and POP the NYSE open to grab a few weak stops then reverse…This pattern is pretty solid for the Target at 20621which means another about 500 down from here…Lets all watch and see..The critical swing high is 21700 area…so Bulls need some ammo….
On the surface, the rally looks impressive…However the Caristas know price has entered the Kill Zone…This afternoon will be telling…Where are the whales..LOL
Dave
December 20, 2024 1:04 am
#43676
We use to have 3 branch of government president legislators and Supreme Court for our young nation of over 250 years now we have forth branch of government that is elan musk
interesting — how it going to works/perform and which other part of government’s wing will going to be get cut???
My latest purchase ABOBE and UNH is down $20/share since I purchase, BA is only stock up since my purchase, Semi like AMD/MU/QCOM are all down since my purchase, I thought I drought them at bottom?? Was gong to buy IWM , talking head at CNBC say it will move in 2025 but now they change,they are saying that high interest rate will be bad for small stock. I am not buying now stock I monitor in health care/material/pharma/energy etc are all close to 52 wk low, waiting to buy it Mega 7 I was playing are too high may correct ??
I don’t think there will be rate cut in January–it will stay where it is for a while and next move will be up I don’t think market going to see High we had –not for a while???
Stock i sold few days ago,QUBT/QBTS/RGTI/ION-I can buy all back and saved 10K I am believer in QC but not going to hold their stock forever, I will be in and out base on price,
NQ….Trying to show the BOTS movements that make the news….NQ was behaving nicely then the Programming and VOLUME was set to sell….Sell the Powell news maybe, Remember the BOTS are the Matrix…They HUNT….THEY HUNT STOPS…Like the movie The Matrix, they send out the sentinels to feed…The data gained by these BOTS is telling…Where are the stops and where can we feed. The NQ now has a huge wall to climb to new high…Does NEO have the strength to fight off the Sentinels here? I am not so sure…Looks to be a RANGE coming up as the BOTS hunt. Sideways for now depending on what data the BOTS found on the Sell, pretty big volume so we shall see…..
It saddens me to see a CFA put out a garbage video like this. By now in his career, he should know that Fed announcements and earnings reports and major breaking news of that sort are only the cover stories. The parties who control market prices are the organizations that “pop the everything bubble.”
These organizations have started selling because they can’t get prices any higher. They began selling in earnest after the peak on December 4. I followed a few days later that the public would clearly see what is happening a month later. I said that the cover story then would be the JP Morgan 4Q earnings report. That report will reveal little on the surface but the shills behind the powerful money organizations will point the public to something in the report that will rattle investors. JPM of course will be blamed.
People will never be able to link the dots until they understand the forces behind market prices and what motivates them. These people understand risk-reward. When risks of owning assets become excessive, they sell. Their selling is what pops bubbles.
People ought to listen to basketguy. The HB&B organizations that control market prices have built humongous algo programs to do their work. As long as there is volume in the market, these algos will be at work. The greater the volume along trend, the algos will push that trend motion until sellers > buyers or buyers > sellers. In addition to managing the algos, HB&B trades its accounts and supports its interests with bought-and-paid-for media that takes advantage of human nature (i.e., fear and greed emotions). They will build positions as long as they believe profits will be made. They will start selling when they have pushed prices as high as they think the market will bear.
The problem with this market dynamic is that HB&B, almost 100 years ago, lobbied for legislation that enabled them to be on both the buy-side and the sell-side, and they can even do that in the same transactions. They will trade their buy-side accounts (fiduciary managers, friends, and family) against their sell-side accounts (broker-dealer and investment banking clients). They will do that whenever it is to their advantage, and they will even tell their clients that their primary job is to protect their (i.e., HB&B’s) capital first and foremost. They tell their sell-side business clients (i.e., the public) that all trading is subject to regulatory approval. That sounds good, except that the regulatory authorities are the SEC, mandated by the Investment Securities Acts of 1933 and 1934, which HB&B wrote for the legislators at the time, and have successfully lobbied each change since. The second level of regulatory authority is their broker-dealer trade association called FINRA.
Twenty-five years ago, I stood in the industry’s formal hearing to regulate electronic trading in Canada and denounced these practices. I asked the heads of the nine provincial securities commissions to look at financial transactions like a divorce proceeding where the opposing parties are each represented by a lawyer in the same firm, arguing the case in front of a judge in the same firm. That would never happen in common law, but it is the practice in securities law. There wasn’t a person in that packed room, including representatives of all the securities commissions, stock exchanges, major banks, broker-dealers, and financial big data firms, who wanted to hear me say this. These people go to work every day to jobs that depend on the system as it is, as HB&B had it built, no matter how self-conflicted the system and the people are. As long as they make money, they believe there is no need to change a thing.
You and I know what’s right and wrong, but the people we elect to government who can change all this have been bought and paid for. So, the system will not change “as long as there is volume in the market.”
BillCara You said it more eloquently than I ever could. There were 2 early tells Tuesday at the open and then again Wednesday at the open…The BOTS were probing. Then the news and the programs based off those early moves were off FEEDING….As these programs are probing they gather data…Most larger players have some type of sell stop program or buy orders pre set and those SPIKES are the bots probing that data to see. TO see how large those sell stops are and where and how large are the waiting buy orders….
Listen it is obvious…WALL STREET has BREAKERS in place for a reason. If the market SELLS off too fast, they just close the market or stop trading for a period of time.
DO THEY EVER CLOSE THE MARKET WHEN ITS UP SAY 10%….Do they stop trading individual stocks when they are up? Wall street knows they have problems with these sentinels probing…It doesn’t take much…
I think I told you guys the story about when the Hunt brothers ran up silver…..Back in the day, the way they stopped these people from what they call cornering the market, they would call in their lines of credit. You see the big banks always get their way and when they don’t, they just pull your access to those funds. It happened to the Hunt brothersand those trading silver at the time…they had silver controlled due to their positions at the time and the volume that was being traded…The banks came calling (those that were short of course and told the Hunts and OTHERS…They were pulling their credit, and instantly the move in silver was over. The individual that told some of us this story was tipped off by his friend who called him and just kept saying to him (I AM AT THE BANK)(I AM AT THE BANK)…Why was here there, well they were calling in his line of credit of course….and all those too follow…
“Quarter to date, $MSTR treasury operations delivered a BTC Yield of 46.4%, a net benefit of ~116,940 BTC. At $105K per BTC, that equates to ~$12.28 billion for the quarter.”
TSLA, Hopefully some of you listened to me….Target 1 based on Robot trading achieved and the robots hit the SELL. I can’t see the algo programs, but I can PICK OUT where the BOTS are hunting. Made a nice POP on my short positions….I also took a short on BTC…Not that I don’t think it could go higher, I just know it was at a big Fib extension and the bots were primed and programmed to sell it….Nothing more nothing less. Stories are written AFTER the stocks move…Good hunting….
basketguy I listen to you…just, I don’t trade TSLA and have no idea how to short BTC (don’t think I would do so anyway)…will wait for a bottom on commodities stocks and oilfield svcs and see where that takes us…mkts looked pretty sick today…
I used BITU for bitcoin. For Tsla I liked tslt and tslr. These double inverse funds are a nice way to profit on the short side when things get frothy long. The only issue at times is finding supply since you need to borrow the shares to short. Just another way they control price by limiting the amount you can play on the opposite side.
Judging by valuations, mkt seems to either be pricing in recession, or these are at the cyclical lows of the commodities cycle (which not long ago was expected to be in an upswing).
Copper spot US $4.09 a pound; will wait for a 3.15-3.50 range before buying in. May not get there. Copper supply deficit only gets started next year, has a long way to go. Watch the COPX ETF and spot prices.
But then the Fed will loosen, and we’ll quickly see precious metal prices soar. The Material stocks you listed are economically sensitive, so their take-off will be delayed a bit. I suspect they are not delayed too much because (a) they are, as you noted, close to a long cycle bottom now, and (b) the market Bear cycle low will be breathtakingly low so that the rebound will be massive.
Chicago Board Options Exchange’s CBOE Volatility Index up 74% today. I am of the opinion that leveraged ETFs, especially $MSTU and $MSTX, $NYDA could crash the market. “In November 2024, US single-stock leveraged ETFs saw a record $84 billion in volume, which was double the previous record set in 2022″ Gamblers Are Sinking Billions Into a Leveraged Market Fringe
Single-name amped-up ETFs are seeing record trading volumes
Swings in mainstream assets abate after post-election moves
goldbug58 Alcoa looks range with possible new lows based on no new swing high monthly chart. A simple trendline can be drawn off the lows and I think the BOTS will bust that one to the downside. I agree, maybe early spring….
I opined earlier that the expletives and the ketchup will be hitting the wall at the White House after the next Fed meeting on January 29.
At 9:29 am ET today, I wrote these words to alert everybody to the coming fireworks:
Fed Chair Jay Powell will likely opine that further rate cuts may come in 2025, but investors should not expect much regarding rate declines. That will set up the battlefield for the next Fed decision on January 29. Whatever the Fed decides to do on that day or with the following decision on March 19, I expect the US stock market will be in free fall, and Trump will blame Powell.
The harder stock prices collapse, the louder Trump will scream. We know how extreme that can be. I anticipate hearing “Rat!” and “You’re fired!” and words to that effect. The problem is that as the country’s chief mafioso does almost daily, Trump can threaten all he wants. His words will fall on deaf ears at the Fed.
Earlier, I should have written the wall at Mar-a-Lago because today Fed chair Powell stated that 2025 rate cuts would be less than the market expected since inflation is still a problem. And investors know how tariffs will push inflation higher than the Fed would like to see.
After Powell spoke, Mr. Market clapped back. The Dow plunged over 1000 points. My January Bear market call is looking better still.
At the 4 pm close, every sector today was down. Healthcare was down -1.0%, whereas Consumer Discretionary dipped almost -4.0%.
Twenty-nine of the Dow 30 had losses, and 98 of the Cara 100 went south.
All things considered, the cynic in me says there will be a Christmas Rally. Wall Street has some lipstick to put on pigs so friends and family can sell their huge 2024 gains after the end of the tax-loss selling period.
I just saw the news that with the Dow 30 Index down for ten straight days, that was last done 50 years ago. It means that the majority of investors and traders today who are 70 or younger have not seen that before.
I wonder if they’ll even give a second thought to watching history.
There was not much of a reason for tax-loss selling this year.
As of December 18, 2024, the S&P 500 has achieved a year-to-date (YTD) total return of 28.6%, with a price return of 26.9% and a dividend return of 1.7%.
This performance far outperforms the market’s average, which, over the past 65 years, has been an average annualized return of 10.23%.
It’s the fifth-best result since the start of the Great Depression in 1929.
Of course, if you sell tax losses this year, the stocks are probably in Energy, Materials, Healthcare, and Real Estate.
I moved all domains and products away from GoDaddy today.
Some authorizations are still required, which may be why the site is taking extra time to post comments.
As of January 1, 2014, the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) has mandated that all ICANN-accredited registrars begin verifying the WHOIS contact information for all new domain registrations and Registrant contact modifications.
All, I found this article interesting. Also, FYI, I have edited the article slightly in an effort to make it a little quicker read. I think that the article adds an argument for AI, robotics and QC “trade spaces”.
Trump’s Musk-led efficiency drive may spur defense-tech partnerships SIMI VALLEY, California, Dec 9 (Reuters) – President-elect Donald Trump’s planned U.S. government efficiency drive involving Elon Musk could lead to more joint projects between big defense contractors and smaller tech firms in areas such as artificial intelligence, drones and uncrewed submarines, according to interviews with company executives. Smaller military technology companies such as artificial intelligence software firmPalantir and drone-maker Anduril have been buoyed by the prospect of Musk further loosening the grip that defense giants have held on the Pentagon’s budget for many decades. Participants at the Reagan National Defense Forum, a summit in Simi Valley, California, that brought together corporate executives, U.S. military leaders and lawmakers, said they expect smaller tech firms to play a bigger role given that Musk, one of their own, is entering a position of enormous influence. Musk and many small defense tech firms have been aligned in criticizing legacy defense programs like Lockheed Martin’s F-35 fighter jet while calling for mass production of cheaper AI-powered drones, missiles and uncrewed submarines. Such views have given major defense contractors more incentive to partner with emerging defense technology players in these areas, some having strong personal relationships with Musk and his companies such as SpaceX and Tesla, according to executives at technology and big defense firms. One senior executive at a top defense contractor, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters that contract negotiations by his company with smaller military tech providers have been “on steroids” since Trump’s Nov. 5 election victory. These emerging firms could benefit from teaming up with the big legacy contractors if the newer companies want to quickly scale production of new weapons and deploy new technology platforms in the field, according to executives at the summit. “What we’re locked into is a current worldview in defense that everything is zero sum. If you’re growing, that means I’m shrinking. I don’t think that’s true,” Shyam Sankar, Palantir’s chief technology officer, told Reuters on the sidelines of the two-day summit, which ended on Saturday. “We need to help the Primes,” Sankar said, referring to the big legacy contractors, “once you get past a zero-sum mindset, that actually everyone can be better off.” In a potential sign of things to come, Palantir announced on the eve of the summit a deal to partner on defense AI with Booz Allen Hamilton(BAH.N), opens new tab, a 110-year-old military contractor. MUSK’S NEW ROLE The Pentagon, with a budget around $850 billion, accounts for half of U.S. discretionary spending – the money formally approved by Congress during the annual appropriations process. The Collaborative Combat Aircraft, or CCA, program is a project that could offer more access to smaller defense players. The CCA would be a smaller drone in a family of systems centered around a sixth-generation fighter jet – the Next Generation Air Dominance, or NGAD, program meant to replace the F-22 fighter jet and give the United States the most powerful weaponry in the sky. Anduril and General Atomics were selected in April to design, build and test prototypes for the CCA program – demonstrating that smaller companies had innovative ideas for the vehicle. A future production decision would lead to billions of dollars, but a wider group including defense giants Lockheed and Northrop Grumman could also compete to win that contract. Drone makers such as Kratos Defense (KTOS.O), opens new tab, AeroVironment (AVAV.O), opens new tab and Hermeus are also well-positioned if there is a push to surge production of autonomous vehicles. Software providers and services contractors such as SAIC (SAIC.O), opens new tab and Leidos Holdings (LDOS.N), opens new tab may benefit because their products can be deployed quickly to fill the bureaucratic functions that Musk hopes to cut, according to industry sources. It is widely expected that space will get a boost under Trump, with SpaceX one obvious beneficiary. Company executives, military leaders and U.S. lawmakers debated at the summit the extent to which Trump and Musk would be able to overhaul the Defense Department, given that its budget funds 2 million American jobs and that many programs are worth tens of billions of dollars and locked in for years. Musk faces a major challenge to push through structural changes given that the Pentagon budget is approved by lawmakers, many of whom have defense programs in their states. Republican U.S. Senator Deb Fischer during a panel discussion at the summit said any major changes to the Pentagon budget would have to be handled by Congress, not Musk. Fischer offered a challenge to any defense firm advocating major reforms. “Every one of you needs to propose a program that you personally benefit from that you’d be willing to cut,” Fischer said.
This deal has been in the works as both companies are failing.
BTW, the Tesla (TSLA) market cap has again swamped the collective market cap of all other global auto manufacturers. Investors believe that Tesla is a technology company with unlimited bluesky.
Congrats to Skeena Resources (SKE)(SKE.to).
On my watchlist of 33 goldminers, SKE performed best for 1-week (with a small loss), 2nd best for 1-month and 3-month, and 3rd best for 1-year performance.
It’s one of those I never stuck with after buying in early, even though I met management several times. I know several of you have invested.
FOMO isn’t just a local phenomenon; it’s a global force.
This morning, markets are showing continued price weakness both at home and abroad.
Sellers are firmly in control, not because of Fed Chair Jay Powell, Congress’s failure to pass a spending bill, or reports of drones over New Jersey. Instead, the prevailing view among sellers is that securities prices are fundamentally overvalued.
Adding to the downward pressure, international wealth funds—driven by FOMO (Fear of Missing Out)—have seen disappointing performance in high-profile investments like NVDA, META, TSLA, GOOG, AMZN, and AAPL.
FOMO is human nature, much like the ebb tide lowering boats worldwide.
NQ..For years back in the early 2000’s I used to day trade the NQ quite a bit. I was pretty good, but the nasdaq can be a wild animal most of the time. NQ typically overshoots its targets and I had too move away from it because I was staying up way to late to watch the different stock exchange openings and how the NQ would react. You would see at times that most of the dirty work done by the BOTS was done after the NYSE closed. Now I know this market is 24 hours, but the volume at night is nowhere near when the market is open. Most of my money was made while others in the USA were sleeping. My wife made me chose, stay married and STOP trading all night or move out…Well, I am still happily married…So my days of day trading NQ are long gone. I still like to watch it and gain insight to see how the ALGO BOTS are feeding and if they are taking profits at night like the good ole days….They took 400 off in the overnight..So it looks like they will try and POP the NYSE open to grab a few weak stops then reverse…This pattern is pretty solid for the Target at 20621which means another about 500 down from here…Lets all watch and see..The critical swing high is 21700 area…so Bulls need some ammo….
As I expected…The morning POP is in play….Now its, put up of shut up time….LOL
On the surface, the rally looks impressive…However the Caristas know price has entered the Kill Zone…This afternoon will be telling…Where are the whales..LOL
We use to have 3 branch of government
president
legislators and
Supreme Court for our young nation of over 250 years
now we have forth branch of government
that is
elan musk
interesting — how it going to works/perform
and which other part of government’s wing will going to be get cut???
I suppose Musk’s money outweighs Trump’s threats.
Plutocracy at its finest.
https://youtu.be/dZKyo1ChzAQ?si=FkWiuxTN_CPd46n4
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/12/20/3000583/0/en/SEALSQ-Post-Quantum-Cryptographic-Chips-Deployed-on-WISeSat-Satellites.html
My latest purchase ABOBE and UNH is down $20/share since I purchase, BA is only stock up since my purchase,
Semi like AMD/MU/QCOM are all down since my purchase, I thought I drought them at bottom??
Was gong to buy IWM , talking head at CNBC say it will move in 2025 but now they change,they are saying that high interest rate will be bad for small stock. I am not buying now
stock I monitor in health care/material/pharma/energy etc are all close to 52 wk low, waiting to buy it
Mega 7 I was playing are too high may correct ??
I don’t think there will be rate cut in January–it will stay where it is for a while and next move will be up
I don’t think market going to see High we had –not for a while???
Stock i sold few days ago,QUBT/QBTS/RGTI/ION-I can buy all back and saved 10K
I am believer in QC but not going to hold their stock forever, I will be in and out base on price,
Understanding Market Forces article.
I combined earlier comments that Basketguy and I made.
Not much of a rebound today.
Materials weakness continues.
Dow Inc joins the 52-wk low club.
Glencore
Fortescue
Antofagasta
Cleveland-Cliffs
BHP, RIO, formerly mentioned
Teck within 3 bucks of a yearly low.
S&P 500 1-week movers
Korean Won just fell to its weakest level against the U.S. Dollar since the Global Financial Crisis
https://x.com/Barchart/status/1869584516186058863
I noted a few days ago that the immediate political issues there have not been resolved.
NQ….Trying to show the BOTS movements that make the news….NQ was behaving nicely then the Programming and VOLUME was set to sell….Sell the Powell news maybe, Remember the BOTS are the Matrix…They HUNT….THEY HUNT STOPS…Like the movie The Matrix, they send out the sentinels to feed…The data gained by these BOTS is telling…Where are the stops and where can we feed. The NQ now has a huge wall to climb to new high…Does NEO have the strength to fight off the Sentinels here? I am not so sure…Looks to be a RANGE coming up as the BOTS hunt. Sideways for now depending on what data the BOTS found on the Sell, pretty big volume so we shall see…..
“Did Powell Just Pop the Everything Bubble?”
It saddens me to see a CFA put out a garbage video like this. By now in his career, he should know that Fed announcements and earnings reports and major breaking news of that sort are only the cover stories. The parties who control market prices are the organizations that “pop the everything bubble.”
These organizations have started selling because they can’t get prices any higher. They began selling in earnest after the peak on December 4. I followed a few days later that the public would clearly see what is happening a month later. I said that the cover story then would be the JP Morgan 4Q earnings report. That report will reveal little on the surface but the shills behind the powerful money organizations will point the public to something in the report that will rattle investors. JPM of course will be blamed.
People will never be able to link the dots until they understand the forces behind market prices and what motivates them. These people understand risk-reward. When risks of owning assets become excessive, they sell. Their selling is what pops bubbles.
People ought to listen to basketguy. The HB&B organizations that control market prices have built humongous algo programs to do their work. As long as there is volume in the market, these algos will be at work. The greater the volume along trend, the algos will push that trend motion until sellers > buyers or buyers > sellers. In addition to managing the algos, HB&B trades its accounts and supports its interests with bought-and-paid-for media that takes advantage of human nature (i.e., fear and greed emotions). They will build positions as long as they believe profits will be made. They will start selling when they have pushed prices as high as they think the market will bear.
The problem with this market dynamic is that HB&B, almost 100 years ago, lobbied for legislation that enabled them to be on both the buy-side and the sell-side, and they can even do that in the same transactions. They will trade their buy-side accounts (fiduciary managers, friends, and family) against their sell-side accounts (broker-dealer and investment banking clients). They will do that whenever it is to their advantage, and they will even tell their clients that their primary job is to protect their (i.e., HB&B’s) capital first and foremost. They tell their sell-side business clients (i.e., the public) that all trading is subject to regulatory approval. That sounds good, except that the regulatory authorities are the SEC, mandated by the Investment Securities Acts of 1933 and 1934, which HB&B wrote for the legislators at the time, and have successfully lobbied each change since. The second level of regulatory authority is their broker-dealer trade association called FINRA.
Twenty-five years ago, I stood in the industry’s formal hearing to regulate electronic trading in Canada and denounced these practices. I asked the heads of the nine provincial securities commissions to look at financial transactions like a divorce proceeding where the opposing parties are each represented by a lawyer in the same firm, arguing the case in front of a judge in the same firm. That would never happen in common law, but it is the practice in securities law. There wasn’t a person in that packed room, including representatives of all the securities commissions, stock exchanges, major banks, broker-dealers, and financial big data firms, who wanted to hear me say this. These people go to work every day to jobs that depend on the system as it is, as HB&B had it built, no matter how self-conflicted the system and the people are. As long as they make money, they believe there is no need to change a thing.
You and I know what’s right and wrong, but the people we elect to government who can change all this have been bought and paid for. So, the system will not change “as long as there is volume in the market.”
Listen it is obvious…WALL STREET has BREAKERS in place for a reason. If the market SELLS off too fast, they just close the market or stop trading for a period of time.
DO THEY EVER CLOSE THE MARKET WHEN ITS UP SAY 10%….Do they stop trading individual stocks when they are up? Wall street knows they have problems with these sentinels probing…It doesn’t take much…
I think I told you guys the story about when the Hunt brothers ran up silver…..Back in the day, the way they stopped these people from what they call cornering the market, they would call in their lines of credit. You see the big banks always get their way and when they don’t, they just pull your access to those funds. It happened to the Hunt brothersand those trading silver at the time…they had silver controlled due to their positions at the time and the volume that was being traded…The banks came calling (those that were short of course and told the Hunts and OTHERS…They were pulling their credit, and instantly the move in silver was over. The individual that told some of us this story was tipped off by his friend who called him and just kept saying to him (I AM AT THE BANK)(I AM AT THE BANK)…Why was here there, well they were calling in his line of credit of course….and all those too follow…
Michael Saylor
@saylor
“Quarter to date, $MSTR treasury operations delivered a BTC Yield of 46.4%, a net benefit of ~116,940 BTC. At $105K per BTC, that equates to ~$12.28 billion for the quarter.”
https://x.com/saylor/status/1869386665028178091
TSLA, Hopefully some of you listened to me….Target 1 based on Robot trading achieved and the robots hit the SELL. I can’t see the algo programs, but I can PICK OUT where the BOTS are hunting. Made a nice POP on my short positions….I also took a short on BTC…Not that I don’t think it could go higher, I just know it was at a big Fib extension and the bots were primed and programmed to sell it….Nothing more nothing less. Stories are written AFTER the stocks move…Good hunting….
I used BITU for bitcoin. For Tsla I liked tslt and tslr. These double inverse funds are a nice way to profit on the short side when things get frothy long. The only issue at times is finding supply since you need to borrow the shares to short. Just another way they control price by limiting the amount you can play on the opposite side.
Judging by valuations, mkt seems to either be pricing in recession, or these are at the cyclical lows of the commodities cycle (which not long ago was expected to be in an upswing).
Vale (iron ore)
Freeport (copper)
Weyerhaeuser (timber)
BHP (multiple metals)
Alcoa (aluminum)
Copper spot US $4.09 a pound; will wait for a 3.15-3.50 range before buying in. May not get there. Copper supply deficit only gets started next year, has a long way to go. Watch the COPX ETF and spot prices.
The coming Bear will take down all prices.
But then the Fed will loosen, and we’ll quickly see precious metal prices soar. The Material stocks you listed are economically sensitive, so their take-off will be delayed a bit. I suspect they are not delayed too much because (a) they are, as you noted, close to a long cycle bottom now, and (b) the market Bear cycle low will be breathtakingly low so that the rebound will be massive.
Chicago Board Options Exchange’s CBOE Volatility Index up 74% today.
I am of the opinion that leveraged ETFs, especially $MSTU and $MSTX, $NYDA could crash the market. “In November 2024, US single-stock leveraged ETFs saw a record $84 billion in volume, which was double the previous record set in 2022″
Gamblers Are Sinking Billions Into a Leveraged Market Fringe
https://archive.is/ricot#selection-1323.0-1337.59
Levered Single Stock ETFs On NVDA – Crack Cocaine For The Financial Masses And What This Means For The Stock Market
https://www.longtailalpha.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/LTA-Thinking-Levered-Single-Stocks-ETFs-on-NVDA.pdf
plus the Michael Green podcast I posted on 12/16 in life-politics
Trump gonna be mad!
I opined earlier that the expletives and the ketchup will be hitting the wall at the White House after the next Fed meeting on January 29.
At 9:29 am ET today, I wrote these words to alert everybody to the coming fireworks:
Earlier, I should have written the wall at Mar-a-Lago because today Fed chair Powell stated that 2025 rate cuts would be less than the market expected since inflation is still a problem. And investors know how tariffs will push inflation higher than the Fed would like to see.
After Powell spoke, Mr. Market clapped back. The Dow plunged over 1000 points. My January Bear market call is looking better still.
Oh, yes, Mr. Trump gonna be mad.
This was a tough two hours for Mr. Market.
At the 4 pm close, every sector today was down. Healthcare was down -1.0%, whereas Consumer Discretionary dipped almost -4.0%.
Twenty-nine of the Dow 30 had losses, and 98 of the Cara 100 went south.
All things considered, the cynic in me says there will be a Christmas Rally. Wall Street has some lipstick to put on pigs so friends and family can sell their huge 2024 gains after the end of the tax-loss selling period.
Since I’m retired now, I should change my website photo in favor of the social media one with the Tilley hat.
I just saw the news that with the Dow 30 Index down for ten straight days, that was last done 50 years ago. It means that the majority of investors and traders today who are 70 or younger have not seen that before.
I wonder if they’ll even give a second thought to watching history.
Jay Powell was just 21.
Oilfield services still getting its head handed to it;
HP off 6.31%
SLB off 4.16%
HAL off 3.90%
Still watching, still waiting; no entries.
There was not much of a reason for tax-loss selling this year.
As of December 18, 2024, the S&P 500 has achieved a year-to-date (YTD) total return of 28.6%, with a price return of 26.9% and a dividend return of 1.7%.
This performance far outperforms the market’s average, which, over the past 65 years, has been an average annualized return of 10.23%.
It’s the fifth-best result since the start of the Great Depression in 1929.
Of course, if you sell tax losses this year, the stocks are probably in Energy, Materials, Healthcare, and Real Estate.
I moved all domains and products away from GoDaddy today.
Some authorizations are still required, which may be why the site is taking extra time to post comments.
Fed policy rate decision was as expected.
All, I found this article interesting. Also, FYI, I have edited the article slightly in an effort to make it a little quicker read. I think that the article adds an argument for AI, robotics and QC “trade spaces”.
Trump’s Musk-led efficiency drive may spur defense-tech partnerships
SIMI VALLEY, California, Dec 9 (Reuters) – President-elect Donald Trump’s planned U.S. government efficiency drive involving Elon Musk could lead to more joint projects between big defense contractors and smaller tech firms in areas such as artificial intelligence, drones and uncrewed submarines, according to interviews with company executives.
Smaller military technology companies such as artificial intelligence software firm Palantir and drone-maker Anduril have been buoyed by the prospect of Musk further loosening the grip that defense giants have held on the Pentagon’s budget for many decades.
Participants at the Reagan National Defense Forum, a summit in Simi Valley, California, that brought together corporate executives, U.S. military leaders and lawmakers, said they expect smaller tech firms to play a bigger role given that Musk, one of their own, is entering a position of enormous influence.
Musk and many small defense tech firms have been aligned in criticizing legacy defense programs like Lockheed Martin’s F-35 fighter jet while calling for mass production of cheaper AI-powered drones, missiles and uncrewed submarines.
Such views have given major defense contractors more incentive to partner with emerging defense technology players in these areas, some having strong personal relationships with Musk and his companies such as SpaceX and Tesla, according to executives at technology and big defense firms.
One senior executive at a top defense contractor, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters that contract negotiations by his company with smaller military tech providers have been “on steroids” since Trump’s Nov. 5 election victory.
These emerging firms could benefit from teaming up with the big legacy contractors if the newer companies want to quickly scale production of new weapons and deploy new technology platforms in the field, according to executives at the summit.
“What we’re locked into is a current worldview in defense that everything is zero sum. If you’re growing, that means I’m shrinking. I don’t think that’s true,” Shyam Sankar, Palantir’s chief technology officer, told Reuters on the sidelines of the two-day summit, which ended on Saturday.
“We need to help the Primes,” Sankar said, referring to the big legacy contractors, “once you get past a zero-sum mindset, that actually everyone can be better off.”
In a potential sign of things to come, Palantir announced on the eve of the summit a deal to partner on defense AI with Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH.N), opens new tab, a 110-year-old military contractor.
MUSK’S NEW ROLE
The Pentagon, with a budget around $850 billion, accounts for half of U.S. discretionary spending – the money formally approved by Congress during the annual appropriations process.
The Collaborative Combat Aircraft, or CCA, program is a project that could offer more access to smaller defense players. The CCA would be a smaller drone in a family of systems centered around a sixth-generation fighter jet – the Next Generation Air Dominance, or NGAD, program meant to replace the F-22 fighter jet and give the United States the most powerful weaponry in the sky.
Anduril and General Atomics were selected in April to design, build and test prototypes for the CCA program – demonstrating that smaller companies had innovative ideas for the vehicle. A future production decision would lead to billions of dollars, but a wider group including defense giants Lockheed and Northrop Grumman could also compete to win that contract.
Drone makers such as Kratos Defense (KTOS.O), opens new tab, AeroVironment (AVAV.O), opens new tab and Hermeus are also well-positioned if there is a push to surge production of autonomous vehicles.
Software providers and services contractors such as SAIC (SAIC.O), opens new tab and Leidos Holdings (LDOS.N), opens new tab may benefit because their products can be deployed quickly to fill the bureaucratic functions that Musk hopes to cut, according to industry sources.
It is widely expected that space will get a boost under Trump, with SpaceX one obvious beneficiary.
Company executives, military leaders and U.S. lawmakers debated at the summit the extent to which Trump and Musk would be able to overhaul the Defense Department, given that its budget funds 2 million American jobs and that many programs are worth tens of billions of dollars and locked in for years.
Musk faces a major challenge to push through structural changes given that the Pentagon budget is approved by lawmakers, many of whom have defense programs in their states.
Republican U.S. Senator Deb Fischer during a panel discussion at the summit said any major changes to the Pentagon budget would have to be handled by Congress, not Musk. Fischer offered a challenge to any defense firm advocating major reforms.
“Every one of you needs to propose a program that you personally benefit from that you’d be willing to cut,” Fischer said.
Musk will open some eyes in Congress, but Congress will call the shots.
Honda-Nissan ties discussed.
Reuters says there will be closer ties and possibly a merger.
This deal has been in the works as both companies are failing.
BTW, the Tesla (TSLA) market cap has again swamped the collective market cap of all other global auto manufacturers. Investors believe that Tesla is a technology company with unlimited bluesky.
LOL. The latter is an X pun.
Reuters reports that the Credit Suisse collapse investigation review will be published on Friday.
Vad’s hunting today.