Bill Cara

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Kyle

Kaimu Blog — Where did it go????

baz22

Yep…dumped ALL BTC Related early, early am…. No loss on GME…5% On MSTR….APVO made up for it…had taken large profits on CRWV yesterday… Like I say, I like as few stocks as possible to hold ..good advice from Stanley Druckenmiller

Last edited 4 hours ago by baz22
goldbug58

I thought the volume on NVDA was high at 335 Million shares traded. Then I looked at their Mkt Cap of 2.69 Trillion, at 102 a share, seems they have some 26 Billion+ shares out. I’d not own this anyway at any price and the CEO seems to be a jerk.

Kyle

NVDA — I was just watching ‘Aliens’ … “in the Box 5×5” …

2025-04-03_NVDAb-meenv089-rsi13-OHLC
basketguy

As my old mentor uses to say….”NEVER TRY AND CATCH A FALLING PIANO. LET IT BOUNCE FIRST”….That is ALL….

baz22

https://youtu.be/mOAdCU_o0XE?si=mhcEBHJQEYqrfo7J
Using bispecific antibodies…think SMMT
Their platform is 100% company owned

Last edited 9 hours ago by baz22
Pierre

SMMT is holding up in this volatility.

goldbug58

Substantial damage in refiners and oilfield services.

basketguy

Been saying that for months..LOL…Stay Clear.
Remember the Swing low in oil is -40.00

goldbug58

Yes -40.00 very true, closed that day -34.00 and a lot of brokerages couldn’t post negative quotes. Some thought they were buying a barrel of oil for a dollar and it was actually much much lower; on 1000-bbl contracts they all got ….. ‘d

goldbug58

‘When the time comes to buy, you won’t want to’.
–Walter Deemer

NYUGrad

I am proud of you for looking at this objectively. I also believe China is in top gear accelerating as fast as they can to become the next US. This is all leading up to another global war and a fight for reserve status.

Keep in mind China’s middle class population is larger than all of America’s population. I suspect they will enrich their own and the days of China making garbage sneakers in sweatshops is over. They have already began offloading this type of labor out of China.

kaimu

I was going to do a CCP report on this subject, but I disagree. I believe China under the CCP has no middle class left and the CCP is working on collapsing the upper class, which is mostly CCP members. I also have big doubts about the future of the CCP PLA military as well as doubts about Xi’s future.

Way back during covid19 I posted here how China lost 300-400mil in population due to covid and due to the CCP census fraud where the outlying rural areas are off the grid uncounted.

What I have no doubts about is the West’s propensity to give up and capitulate to the CCP.

BOTTOM LINE: The CCP has no credibility on any data.

Last edited 8 hours ago by kaimu
kaimu

CHINA POPULATION: TFR + AI =890MIL NOT THE CCP 1.4BIL

TFR=Total Fertility Rate

Trends from 1990 to 2020 show China population in decline.

Using AI and official statistics, we discovered that China’s actual population is 37% to 50% lower than the reported 1.4 billion. A simple comparison of fertility rates and population trends between China and India revealed an unexplained 37% discrepancy. Findings suggest that China’s official demographic data is significantly overstated—and now, AI agrees.

LINK: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ftcLM3502_8

Kyle

Now we’re making some progress … MCGA … When you guys start wearing RED ‘Make Canada Great Again’ caps then we’ll know you’re serious about all this. Cheers

Kyle

NYUGrad — Don’t know about the population deal BUT WRT Technology we’re in a race. Google “space plane x37b china” to get some comparison. Let me think about how much more I can say on this one.

NYUGrad

Circuit Breaker Levels just an fyi:

There are three levels of market-wide circuit breakers:

Level 1 (7% decline): Halts trading for 15 minutes if the decline occurs before 3:25 p.m. EST.

Level 2 (13% decline): Halts trading for 15 minutes if the decline occurs before 3:25 p.m. EST.

Level 3 (20% decline): Halts trading for the remainder of the trading day, regardless of the time.

Screenshot_20250403-090249
Screenshot_20250402-232803
Bill Cara

Steve Liesman (CNBC) says other country tariff rates listed by Trump are materially untrue. Some of the differences are striking. This will be big news tomorrow.

Liesman says that the US is now the highest tariff country in the world by far.

If true, let’s hear from Congress.

Bill Cara

Government Bonds Worldwide are Booming.

investors have decided to largely quit the equity markets. Trumpers will support the equity market to try to put lipstick on this pig. But I still feel the equity market could go into a ‘no bid’ free-fall.

Markets will always find a low level and then bounce. During the Great Depression 1930s, there were many large counter-trend rallies, but the economic damage was so severe at the time, it took over ten years to regain stability. The same could happen now. Countries will not trust America for many years. They will sign trade agreements that exclude the US. American business people and tourists will face ‘Yankee Go Home’ signs now.

Countries worldwide will sell their holdings of US debt. The USD will weaken a lot, as a result, so imports will be more costly based on currency differential as well as the tariff costs. Ultimately this problem may lead to a currency war, shooting the price of Gold to extremes.

I have no doubt that the US will become stronger domestically in maybe 5 to 10 years, but theirs will be a high cost lifestyle. Already the US cannot compete in manufacturing high value products with $33 labor rates in competition with equivalent value products from abroad costing as low as US$7 labor rates. But in less than 10 years, robots will replace humans, so the wage gap will be insignificant. The importance of this cannot be overstressed, which is why I have a separate section on AI and Robotics in my weekly Navigator Report.

The reaction from international countries and investors is as anticipated. It’s quite negative. That same negativity will soon pervade America as money gets tight, prices go up, and jobs get lost. In last week’s Navigator Report, I called it the start of the Age of Austerity. Americans have never lived like people in much of the rest of the world. That’s going to change. In my reports I projected an average annual total return from investments to plunge from the 15-18% range that was enjoyed but is now history to be replaced by 5-8% returns.

With returns that low, why take the risk in equities. Investors are already moving to Treasuries in various countries.

NYUGrad

Erased 8 hours of trade in one 5 min bar

Per CNBC

  • The President signed an aggressive and far-reaching “reciprocal tariff” policy at the White House.
  • The plan imposes steep tariff rates on many countries, including 34% on China, 20% on the European Union, 46% on Vietnam and 32% on Taiwan.
  • The White House clarified to CNBC’s Eamon Javers that the tariff rate on Beijing comes in addition to existing 20% tariffs on Chinese imports, meaning the true tariff rate on China is 54%.
Screenshot_20250402-163040
basketguy

trend….so far….

nqm5
Chris

S&P ES catching a bid around 5515. Let’s see if it holds overnight. I am a little relieved by what is happening. I thought I was going to crazy today watching the market soar when consumer spending is on record as weak and tariffs going into effect. Sat on my hands all day watching my short positions lose money but stuck to my gut. Tomorrow will be a good day for my account.

Last edited 1 day ago by Chris
goldbug58

Took cash to 64% yesterday in the trading account. The continuous rise in gold has taken my exposure there up to 16% of net worth; I’m usually around 7-10%.

NYUGrad

 goldbug58 be careful. Gold has not always been a safety rotation mechanism. There were many times it sold off with equities during panic and TLT was the preferred oh crap door.
https://www.notyouradvisor.com/p/is-gold-a-safe-haven-or-a-canary

Last edited 1 day ago by NYUGrad
Bill Cara

It’s still under one hour. NASDAQ, which is bigger than the NYSE, is down -3. The NYSE is down -2.3% in after-market hours trading. So, the market has plunged over $2 trillion.

Americans who believe this con artist, must love his comedy more than their money. Now for the bad news.

Trump says he’s a “kind” person by imposing tariffs half as big as other countries are imposing on America. But those tariffs are part of international agreements. The US agreed to them, including Trump’s first administration. Trump’s tariffs today are new. Trump is telling half the story, and screwing that up to boot. He ignores the international trade in services, which are heavily in the US’ favor. Moreover, these countries with trade surpluseswith the US have returned those dollars in buying US government debt that has been funding America’s debt problem — the debts that all American governments have acknowledged and agreed to for decades. If those countries retaliate by pulling out their money, the USD will fall a lot and the costs of needed imports, e.g., car parts and electronics, will increase. Also, many of those countries will now retaliate with new tariffs that will match the US. Worse, they will tariff the products America absolutely needs to function, like electronics needed for the military, and commercial aircraft and auto manufacturing. Plants will sbe forced to shut down across the US.

As the first CNBC analyst I heard remarked, this is worse than the worst case of our models.

I agree.

What’s to come now is Trump’s fight against the Fed. The Fed will not back down in its inflation fight, and Trump’s tariffs will ensure higher inflation. For the economic catastrophe to follow, Trump will blame the Fed. The names he will call the Fed chair will be right from the gutter.

The man is unfit to be President.

The proper way to solve America’s problems is to negotiate, not dictate. If Trump had actually written The Art of the Deal, instead of his ghost-writer, he would be managing this matter prudently. As it is, American workers, consumers, and investors will suffer. Don’t underestimate the amount of damage Trump has caused in the past hour. It’s massive.

goldbug58

The Rose garden repartee took place after the markets had closed for the day. He clearly didn’t want any real-time response.

Bill Cara

CNBC Reports the US Senate has enough votes To override Trump’s Tariffs on some Canadian Goods.

I cannot imagine Congress would enable Trump to declare war against Canada and Denmark/Greenland.

Bill Cara

Could be the reason — the end of Trump’s chaos — that the market is bullish today.

let’s watch the 10-year Treasury Yield (4.15% -4.20%) and June Gold (3167). If yields continue to sink and Gold rise then investors are expecting more chaos from the White House.

Kyle

Does anyone have a good Index/ETF/Stock Xcorrelation estimator??? I can’t seem to find the one I used to use. Was curious abt the $SPX -vs- BITCOIN Xcorr. Best I can find right now is

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/asset-correlations#analysisResults

using Tickers ‘SPY IBIT’ & ‘Daily’ & ’60 Trading Days’

yielding 0.41

Kyle

Here’s another one …

https://www.etfscreen.com/corrsym.php?s=SPY

BITCOIN seems to be rolling in ~0.47-0.46

& SPROT 0.36 , 0.28 , 0.11

using ‘Find in page’ tool

NYUGrad

Wall St will say if you sell you will miss the biggest rallies.

Be very careful. Context. 🥷👇

Screenshot_20250401-122009
Last edited 2 days ago by NYUGrad
NYUGrad

Intraday breadth rolling over. 12:30pm

NYUGrad

Nice work!
How quickly will tariff inflation lead to deflation after demand collapses? 1 month? 1 qtr? 1 yr? A decade?

Last edited 2 days ago by NYUGrad
jimg

I combined your analysis from Help You Invest entitled “The Impact of Tariffs on the Global Economy: A Comprehensive Analysis” along with the latest report from the Office of United States Trade Representative entitled “USTR Releases 2025 National Trade Estimate Report”. “The NTE is an annual report detailing foreign trade barriers faced by U.S. exporters and USTR’s efforts to reduce those barriers”
https://ustr.gov/about/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2025/march/ustr-releases-2025-national-trade-estimate-report

https://notebooklm.google.com/notebook/4bf801be-907a-455c-af04-debba03a48ca/audio

Kyle

That ustr document was enlightening. Thanks for posting.

Kyle

Bill — I listened to ~4min of this and then shut it off. I don’t believe this is going to work.

Back in the 60’s there was a story about someone going to brief SECDEF Robert McNamara on whatever and the briefer didn’t provide a paper copy to him.

His response was
“Don’t EVER Do This Again — I CAN READ FASTER THAN YOU CAN TALK”

Bill Cara

Kyle

The purpose of the discussion format is make select comments in my 550-page investment report average-person friendly.

The new Trader tab will encourage the type of brief comments we had 15 years ago. I will do what I can to attract new traders to participate.

I am trying to get a university to partner the site and take it over when I reach an age or health situation I can do it no longer.