Cramer might have been inspired by a TV comedian who popularized the expression, “It’s five o’clock somewhere.” It’s a good thought to have when we get caught up in negatives.
Wall Street employs some of the most brilliant people on earth. The honest ones will say what’s going on.
Bill Cara
May 12, 2025 12:08 pm
#46632
Trump has become the greatest bag holder maker that Wall Street has ever seen.
Four weeks ago, investment industry specialists were lining up as CBNC guests to tell the TV audience that market prices were, for the most part, too high, that the recession odds were increasing, and that the Fed could not cut its policy rate because the tariffs were causing inflation to rise.
Trump then raises the tariffs to 145% against China, and China retaliates with 125% tariffs against products made in the US. Effectively, no US-China business can be done, the ports are empty, and Trump brags that the US is not losing billions as a result. The reality is that inflation is pushed higher, the odds of a Fed rate cut drop, the odds of a recession increase, and corporate earnings will fall, pulling share prices lower.
Last week, Trump bragged that the greatest deal in history had been done with the UK. However, the UK-US business accounts for 3% of US international trade, and 40% of that is essential services, so the trade deal is minimal in the big picture, except that there is no trade deal. There is a verbal agreement to try to get a trade deal in the next 90 days. Meanwhile, Trump is helping Wall Street pump the market higher.
Late last week in Geneva, the US-China trade talks ended when the Chinese delegation abruptly walked out because of offensive comments. They returned and agreed that for 90 days, the tariffs would drop from 145-125 to 30-10. In April, 30-10 crashed the market, but today, there were double-digit gains across many stocks listed in NY.
Over many decades, when Wall Street discovered it had pushed market prices higher than the public could pay or was interested in paying, they rolled the market top, unloading stocks on buyers who believed the nonsense their analysts and sycophants were spewing. When they were ready to pull the plug by simply going ‘no bid’, the market crashed. Typically, the take-out specialist was the Federal Reserve System chairman, who Wall Street and financial media painted as evil incarnate. In 1980, the hated Fed chairman had quickly raised interest rates to an unacceptable 20% to kill out-of-control inflation. In 1986-87, the Japanese would buy up all the American real estate until Japan crashed. In 2000-2001, the bad guy was the day trader shops, until the customers realized that 90-95% were losers and had no profits to buy Caribbean private islands. In 2006-2007, it was the CNBC real-estate tour across America selling over-priced condos that would double in price annually due to foreign investors, who were either drug dealers or ghosts.
For more than 60 years, I have watched these cycles repeat, as the public got screwed out of hard-earned wealth. I have watched Humongous Banks & Brokers, market & politically savvy CEOs, and financial TV personalities get richer, and the average person fall further behind.
In recent years, I see a con artist, the greatest in my lifetime, acquire the US presidency surrounded by a cast of Reality TV characters, and with a thick, black Sharpie in hand, sign some of the most ridiculous Executive Orders and make the most deceitful, self-serving statements in American history. Yet, like the notorious John Gotti, Al Capone, and Bonnie and Clyde, this President, based mostly on charisma since it’s not brains or substance, has achieved a level of fascination and even admiration from hundreds of millions worldwide.
My point? Wall Street has its man, Trump, the Bull Trap Commander, the ultimate take-out source in what is sizing up to be the greatest pump-and-dump play in American history. In 2007, I wrote about the CNBC real estate tour that “books will be written,” and they were. This time, I’m telling you that ‘Trump and the Art of the Market Crash’ encyclopedias will be published, and they will be.
“The Bag Holder Maker — Because every bubble needs someone to leave holding nothing.”
I’m also pleased to announce that a software company in Toronto will take control of the billcara.com website and the production of the Navigator Report this week. My exclusive role will be as editor. I hope to see parts of the report automated so we can publish on Saturdays.
Alexei and I will now have the time to work on special projects involving trading algorithms.
Mastering the Relative Strength Index (RSI): How to Read it Correctly
Author’s Note: Over two decades of watching charts on a daily basis, I’ve misused the RSI early on and missed its deeper signals. This article shares the lessons I wish I had fully grasped sooner — insights that have proven to be reliable across markets, trends, and time.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of the most popular momentum oscillators in technical analysis. While many traders treat it as a simple overbought/oversold signal, deeper research and long-term observation show that RSI’s behavior shifts depending on the underlying market trend.
This article explains how RSI “range rules” work, why overbought readings can actually signal strength, and how traders and investors can apply these insights effectively across asset classes.
Understanding RSI: Beyond the 0 to 100 Scale The RSI is typically plotted on a scale from 0 to 100, with overbought levels defined above 70 and oversold levels below 30. Many beginners — myself included in the early years of my career — interpret these thresholds as automatic trade signals: buy when oversold, sell when overbought.
However, this approach often fails in trending markets. With time and experience, I realized that simply reacting to these levels leads to false signals and premature exits from strong trends.
RSI Range Rules: A More Nuanced Approach Constance Brown, in her influential book Technical Analysis for the Trading Professional, introduced the concept of RSI range rules, which state: In an uptrend, RSI operates in a bullish range with lows near 40–50 and highs between 80–90.
In a downtrend, RSI stays in a bearish range with lows around 20–30 and highs limited to 55–65.
Rather than focusing solely on extreme levels, traders should observe how high or how low the RSI goes relative to these trend-defined ranges. In my own experience, recognizing these ranges was a breakthrough that helped me shift from chasing reversals to riding trends more confidently.
I have always said, I do not fear the guy that has practiced 10k kicks 1 time, I fear the guy that has practiced 1 kick 10K times. If you find a system that is consistent, use it exploit it and make money. The only issue I have is RSI is its a lagging indicator. Meaning you need price action to give you your RSI. That is why for me I like Fib extensions and Andrews pitchforks. They are forecasting price into the future on already known data. RSI is great tool, knowing you are overbought or oversold in one more feather in the CAP of knowing when price should and could turn.
In the picture, the prices and performance over one week, one month, YTD, one year, and three years are current as of a few minutes ago.
The US tickers are mixed. A few don’t trade in Canada. On the weekend, I will include a report in my Navigator Report that shows both US and Canadian tickers.
Just my two cents but too risky to try and pick individual names in this sector, ETFs probably a better choice; URNJ for the Juniors, URA holds CCJ and Kazatomprom.
It will now be managed by a software company I have known for 25 years.
All my communications (website, reports, books) will soon be under their management, so there will be changes in the formatting and marketing. I decided to restrict most of my activities to being a content creator only and to pursue a new venture through the website.
Working with a Day Trading Technology Company
I have also been in talks with a day trading technology company (not a broker-dealer), though nothing is final yet. If this partnership happens, I’ll promote their trading platform on my website.
This technology gives users access to a professional trading room where they can:
Follow and copy professional traders’ moves.
Watch and learn from experts.
Practice with paper trading (fake money).
Subscribers will continue to own their existing accounts with their brokers.
If they do well with paper trading using this system, a prop trading firm may offer them a funded account with profit-sharing, but it’s their choice whether to accept.
My Goal
I want to help people learn to trade independently with expert guidance and a strong tech platform. This way, they can grow their money and invest for retirement.
Why This Matters
Humongous Bank & Broker (HB&B) doesn’t work in the public’s best interest—it prioritizes its own profits. Its organizations, systems, and marketing are designed to keep people dependent while making bankers richer.
My mission has always been to make trading and investing fair and accessible because people deserve to break free from these unfair systems and take control of their own finances. This project is another way for me to help them do that.
In a few days, I’ll fully explain what I’ll be doing.
Coterra Energy off 8%, had been waiting for a dip on this one. Has attractive acreage in the Marcellus, Permian and Anadarko basins; long-term agreements to supply LNG (200mmcf/day) later in the decade; energy v. uncertain right now but it you have a bit longer-term perspective this looks pretty good; close to 4% yld in the meantime.
jimg
May 5, 2025 2:04 pm
#46552
Robert P. Balan runs Predictive Analytic Models, PAM trades risk assets using Fed, US Treasury Liquidity, Option flows.
(Part 1): Why SPX Is Still On A Bullish Trajectory Into May 16 SPX Expiry (And What Comes After)
This really feels like the calm before the storm I’m treading lightly… Crows are harbingers of bad news… I’m seeing way too many . I’ll seek the mountains for reflection
Baz … Will try to get back in the game soon. This time of year ( Spring ) just wipes me out ( mowing , HOA (paint this trim that) , fish pond , etc. ) I’ve just been shoveling shxt for weeks it seems. Hope ur well.
The DeepMind audio discussion is 35 minutes long, but it is well worth listening to. This report was the most intense 35 hours I have ever spent. I barely slept. The audio captures the depth and breadth of my analysis and reporting. I hope you enjoy it.
New Pacific Metals, long rectangle going back to mid-December. A couple of dips below and a failed breakout mid-March. I think a lot of people are trapped higher. SVM still holds a substantial amount of shares, something like 28%. But SVM is focused on the El Domo copper project in Ecuador now. Years ago, Hindenburg questioned why Rui Feng spun this out. In hindsight looks like they may have been right. Regardless, I think 1.14 would be a stupid price to sell at, but it does require the patience of a saint.
Instead of receiving 133,000 new jobs in April, the Trump administration reported 177,000 and substantially reduced the March numbers that they had cheered but are now long forgotten.
The BEA data is no longer newsworthy; it’s trash. As we’ve discussed, it’s been trash for years, but a new dynamic exists today: the ‘weaponization of fear,’ as Kamala Harris called it in her first campaign for California governor speech yesterday.
Speaking of jobs, if you are a woman or black, transgender, or an activist of any kind that opposes MAGA, and leading an important agency of the United States, then it’s likely you have your head down. You are avoiding any action or talk that might offend the thinnest-skinned president in US history, so while Garbage In Garbage Out has always been– like sausages — true, today the process of producing influential data has become particularly rotten.
Facts matter to investors. When it comes to US government administrations, we no longer get them. We haven’t for years. But with this administration, we’re on our own, which, come to think of it, is not such a bad thing. Now, we can focus on what’s important: asset quality and prices.
I have done a detailed report for my weekend Navigator Report #17 . This analysis presents my thoughts on how investors should respond following the significant gain on the opening.
The US GDP shrank in Q1 by an annualized rate of -0.3%
Trump blames Biden, but the adults around his boardroom table today know it was a tariff matter.
Trump already admitted there would be front-end issues, so why lie today? If he were emotionally mature and mentally stable, he would say (i) the number is a statistical estimate, (ii) it was not unexpected because it’s part of the pain Americans would face as he is restructuring the economy and the treasury balance sheet damage caused over decades, and (iii) Americans have to tighten their belts for maybe the first year of his presidency until they see the blue sky of the future he has promised to produce.
The fact that he has the lowest ratings after 100 days in office than any president in 80 years is on him, not anybody else.
You see the difference with Canada. The Canadian Prime Minister and the provincial premiers have, in a unified voice, told Canadians to prepare for tough times because of Trump, and, as they were on Sept 10, 1939, when to support England and France, they volunteered to join the War effort more than two years ahead of the US on Dec 7, 1941 because of Pearl Harbor. Canadians volunteered to die for the Allied cause when the Americans only reacted to personal suffering. My dad didn’t have to fight. He was rejected from every service, a total of three times, because he was an Italian-Canadian and the Allies were fighting Italians and Germans. Canadians are the fighters, I assure you. When it comes to defeating the enemy, they are all action, not bluster. Because of Trump, there’s no moaning and complaining; it’s elbows up. No purchases of US goods in grocery stores or liquor stores. Eliminate tourist travel. Boycott Tesla. Sell the US real estate. Cancel contracts for US services, like Starlink. Sell US securities. This is painful, but it’s what the typical Canadian does when under attack. Trump will never understand that because the only person he is into is himself.
If and when Carney visits Trump, I assure you he will not take a knee. If Trump shows him the same disrespect that led to this US-Canada split, Carney will walk out. In typical Canadian fashion, he’ll say “Sorry.”
For optics’ sake, Carney has to put as much distance as possible between himself and Trudeau, Kyle.
Canada is not a dictatorship, like Russia. Carney was given a slim minority in power, and Canada is not a republic, so non-confidence can result in dismissing a minority government and requiring a new election at any time. Trudeau is toxic in Canada, not quite as bad as Trump, but enough to ruin Carney’s efforts, should your tandemocracy argument become reality. Political observers will closely monitor that situation.
Carney is on his own. He has a highly capable Finance Minister, absolutely the equal of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. He has a solid man in his Trade Minister. He also has Chrystia Freeland to help negotiate new trade deals, given her experience in signing the 2017 USMCA with Trump; however, she is somewhat toxic as well. So that relationship will be upfront but downplayed.
You and I share a complete distaste for the Carney-Freeland-Trudeau adoption of the WEF playbook, but if Trump had not interfered, Canada would have ousted that group. Now Canadians have to deal with it. As I wrote in Kaimu’s blog the other day, we need to focus on Carney vs. Trump, not Carney the Pink.
The reality is that Trump has started an economic war between the US and Canada. Trump has repeatedly made threats against Canada’s sovereign right to exist peacefully and securely. Given that Trump currently holds the position of the most powerful person on earth, Canadians are taking those threats as serious as they did in 1939. Canadians will fight, I assure you.
That half of Canada is not in agreement with Carney’s politics is not the big issue. One hundred percent will stand behind him in the Carney vs. Trump conflict to come, and Canadians know that the vast majority of people in the G-7 (except the current political leaders in the US) fully support him. It wasn’t a ridiculous suggestion that King Charles made to Trump to consider joining the British Commonwealth. It was a message that 2.5 billion people, excluding those in Europe and Japan, will support Canada’s sovereignty. Carney delivered the same message in his election victory speech: If the US wants to go full MAGA, Canada has many, many alternatives.
April 30, 2023 7:53 pm #5620 Red sky in the morning, investors take warning. The infamous Mark Carney — the man I define as evil incarnate — says he plans to attend the upcoming Liberal Party convention in Canada. The cynic in me begs to ask the question, “Doesn’t Justin Trudeau have enough family money parked in Cayman, or is he about to sell his leadership position as Prime Minister to Mark Carney for hundreds of millions more?” I have never liked Trudeau, but Mark Carney is 10x worse. He is one of the powers of the World Economic Forum, where incidentally, Canada’s Deputy Prime Minister, Chrystia Freeland, is also prominent. Despite their many years in power, we will soon hear the Liberal slogan, “Build Canada Back Better!”
Perseus Mining, I do own shares, operates three gold mines in Ivory Coast and Ghana with ~500k oz per yr production. Just gave the green light to build Nyanzaga in Tanzania which will add a little over 200k oz/year at AISC 1200. Capex is 523mm, and they do have the money to build. Early 2028 for production.
ARC Resources (AETUF) Canadian nat gas producer in Alberta; I like their acreage and infrastructure. The Coastal GasLink pipeline to Kitimat terminal in BC is complete, not sure if its operating at full capacity yet. Main theme is export of LNG from Canada to Asian markets. Shares are volatile, I’d enter on swing lows in the 17.00-17.50 range.
UBS predicts that US tariffs will settle around 15% by year-end.
Life will go on. It’s just going to be different.
However, signed and transparent trade deals must start happening so investors can determine where best to allocate capital.
As CNBC’s Jim Cramer famously said, “There’s always a bull market somewhere.”
https://billcara.com/help-you-invest/market-recovery-signals-strength-amid-volatility-a-historical-basis-for-a-sustainable-portfolio/
Cramer might have been inspired by a TV comedian who popularized the expression, “It’s five o’clock somewhere.” It’s a good thought to have when we get caught up in negatives.
NQ update…Looks like a Bully Trap to me…
My thoughts on what’s happening with Trump in the Middle East.
https://billcara.com/help-you-invest/trumps-middle-east-business-deals-legal-risks-and-investor-implications/
Singapore’s New Gold Market
Singapore is starting a new gold trading market in June 2025. Here’s what you should know:
What’s new?
Why does it matter?
Will it beat London?
Success depends on:
Singapore’s market is a smart move for Asia, but London and Shanghai still rule gold trading, at least for now.
InPlay Oil (IPO.to)(IPOOF) report.
On Thursday, Canaccord published this report at C$7.45 with a target of C$13.00. It’s now C$8.11.
A well-managed Oiler that is in great shape.
Terrific, well-protected 4% yield with monthly dividend payments.
I have written about this company for years.
IPOOD in the US now. They reverse split.
The DeepMind Review of my article.
It’s only 7:42 minutes, and it is important. Please share the link with everybody you know.
https://notebooklm.google.com/notebook/a1a929e5-ecb6-494b-b9d9-f45ab579c846/audio
I’m not alone on this. Here’s the Fox Senior Business Correspondent Charles Gasparino:
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/forces-unleashed-fox-reporter-warns-of-nasty-market-turns-from-draconian-trump-plan/ar-AA1EzQRk
Wall Street employs some of the most brilliant people on earth. The honest ones will say what’s going on.
Trump has become the greatest bag holder maker that Wall Street has ever seen.
Four weeks ago, investment industry specialists were lining up as CBNC guests to tell the TV audience that market prices were, for the most part, too high, that the recession odds were increasing, and that the Fed could not cut its policy rate because the tariffs were causing inflation to rise.
Trump then raises the tariffs to 145% against China, and China retaliates with 125% tariffs against products made in the US. Effectively, no US-China business can be done, the ports are empty, and Trump brags that the US is not losing billions as a result. The reality is that inflation is pushed higher, the odds of a Fed rate cut drop, the odds of a recession increase, and corporate earnings will fall, pulling share prices lower.
Last week, Trump bragged that the greatest deal in history had been done with the UK. However, the UK-US business accounts for 3% of US international trade, and 40% of that is essential services, so the trade deal is minimal in the big picture, except that there is no trade deal. There is a verbal agreement to try to get a trade deal in the next 90 days. Meanwhile, Trump is helping Wall Street pump the market higher.
Late last week in Geneva, the US-China trade talks ended when the Chinese delegation abruptly walked out because of offensive comments. They returned and agreed that for 90 days, the tariffs would drop from 145-125 to 30-10. In April, 30-10 crashed the market, but today, there were double-digit gains across many stocks listed in NY.
Over many decades, when Wall Street discovered it had pushed market prices higher than the public could pay or was interested in paying, they rolled the market top, unloading stocks on buyers who believed the nonsense their analysts and sycophants were spewing. When they were ready to pull the plug by simply going ‘no bid’, the market crashed. Typically, the take-out specialist was the Federal Reserve System chairman, who Wall Street and financial media painted as evil incarnate. In 1980, the hated Fed chairman had quickly raised interest rates to an unacceptable 20% to kill out-of-control inflation. In 1986-87, the Japanese would buy up all the American real estate until Japan crashed. In 2000-2001, the bad guy was the day trader shops, until the customers realized that 90-95% were losers and had no profits to buy Caribbean private islands. In 2006-2007, it was the CNBC real-estate tour across America selling over-priced condos that would double in price annually due to foreign investors, who were either drug dealers or ghosts.
For more than 60 years, I have watched these cycles repeat, as the public got screwed out of hard-earned wealth. I have watched Humongous Banks & Brokers, market & politically savvy CEOs, and financial TV personalities get richer, and the average person fall further behind.
In recent years, I see a con artist, the greatest in my lifetime, acquire the US presidency surrounded by a cast of Reality TV characters, and with a thick, black Sharpie in hand, sign some of the most ridiculous Executive Orders and make the most deceitful, self-serving statements in American history. Yet, like the notorious John Gotti, Al Capone, and Bonnie and Clyde, this President, based mostly on charisma since it’s not brains or substance, has achieved a level of fascination and even admiration from hundreds of millions worldwide.
My point? Wall Street has its man, Trump, the Bull Trap Commander, the ultimate take-out source in what is sizing up to be the greatest pump-and-dump play in American history. In 2007, I wrote about the CNBC real estate tour that “books will be written,” and they were. This time, I’m telling you that ‘Trump and the Art of the Market Crash’ encyclopedias will be published, and they will be.
“The Bag Holder Maker — Because every bubble needs someone to leave holding nothing.”
Bill — It’s Spring-time and Canada being right near the North-Pole and all that … Maybe it’s Crazy-Time. Cheers and Stay Safe.
Global Markets Navigator #18 has been published
Happy Mother’s Day. I’m happy to say that the 673-page report has been published. I can now spend the rest of the day with Pat.
The DeepMind audio discussion is 23:09 minutes. It’s very good.
https://notebooklm.google.com/notebook/2f943ba9-9b2e-4f81-a12e-73189d93ed0e/audio
I’m also pleased to announce that a software company in Toronto will take control of the billcara.com website and the production of the Navigator Report this week. My exclusive role will be as editor. I hope to see parts of the report automated so we can publish on Saturdays.
Alexei and I will now have the time to work on special projects involving trading algorithms.
A terrific article on the use of RSI
I received this mail today:
Jay Pettit CMT
Mastering the Relative Strength Index (RSI): How to Read it Correctly
Author’s Note: Over two decades of watching charts on a daily basis, I’ve misused the RSI early on and missed its deeper signals. This article shares the lessons I wish I had fully grasped sooner — insights that have proven to be reliable across markets, trends, and time.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of the most popular momentum oscillators in technical analysis. While many traders treat it as a simple overbought/oversold signal, deeper research and long-term observation show that RSI’s behavior shifts depending on the underlying market trend.
This article explains how RSI “range rules” work, why overbought readings can actually signal strength, and how traders and investors can apply these insights effectively across asset classes.
Understanding RSI: Beyond the 0 to 100 Scale
The RSI is typically plotted on a scale from 0 to 100, with overbought levels defined above 70 and oversold levels below 30. Many beginners — myself included in the early years of my career — interpret these thresholds as automatic trade signals: buy when oversold, sell when overbought.
However, this approach often fails in trending markets. With time and experience, I realized that simply reacting to these levels leads to false signals and premature exits from strong trends.
RSI Range Rules: A More Nuanced Approach
Constance Brown, in her influential book Technical Analysis for the Trading Professional, introduced the concept of RSI range rules, which state:
In an uptrend, RSI operates in a bullish range with lows near 40–50 and highs between 80–90.
In a downtrend, RSI stays in a bearish range with lows around 20–30 and highs limited to 55–65.
Rather than focusing solely on extreme levels, traders should observe how high or how low the RSI goes relative to these trend-defined ranges. In my own experience, recognizing these ranges was a breakthrough that helped me shift from chasing reversals to riding trends more confidently.
I have always said, I do not fear the guy that has practiced 10k kicks 1 time, I fear the guy that has practiced 1 kick 10K times. If you find a system that is consistent, use it exploit it and make money. The only issue I have is RSI is its a lagging indicator. Meaning you need price action to give you your RSI. That is why for me I like Fib extensions and Andrews pitchforks. They are forecasting price into the future on already known data. RSI is great tool, knowing you are overbought or oversold in one more feather in the CAP of knowing when price should and could turn.
Where to invest if this drops?
Trump plans nuclear power push
https://archive.is/LUs8A
My Uranium list.
In the picture, the prices and performance over one week, one month, YTD, one year, and three years are current as of a few minutes ago.
The US tickers are mixed. A few don’t trade in Canada. On the weekend, I will include a report in my Navigator Report that shows both US and Canadian tickers.
My choices for various reasons: UEC, NXE, CCJ
Just my two cents but too risky to try and pick individual names in this sector, ETFs probably a better choice; URNJ for the Juniors, URA holds CCJ and Kazatomprom.
Hi Jim…. https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/05/06/heres-why-nuscale-power-stock-is-a-buy-before-may/
I may not have posted much here recently, but I have some big news tomorrow.
I am moving the website from my server to AWS.
It will now be managed by a software company I have known for 25 years.
All my communications (website, reports, books) will soon be under their management, so there will be changes in the formatting and marketing. I decided to restrict most of my activities to being a content creator only and to pursue a new venture through the website.
Working with a Day Trading Technology Company
I have also been in talks with a day trading technology company (not a broker-dealer), though nothing is final yet. If this partnership happens, I’ll promote their trading platform on my website.
This technology gives users access to a professional trading room where they can:
Subscribers will continue to own their existing accounts with their brokers.
If they do well with paper trading using this system, a prop trading firm may offer them a funded account with profit-sharing, but it’s their choice whether to accept.
My Goal
I want to help people learn to trade independently with expert guidance and a strong tech platform. This way, they can grow their money and invest for retirement.
Why This Matters
Humongous Bank & Broker (HB&B) doesn’t work in the public’s best interest—it prioritizes its own profits. Its organizations, systems, and marketing are designed to keep people dependent while making bankers richer.
My mission has always been to make trading and investing fair and accessible because people deserve to break free from these unfair systems and take control of their own finances. This project is another way for me to help them do that.
In a few days, I’ll fully explain what I’ll be doing.
To graciously borrow a phrase from the magnificent Muhammad Ali, ” float like a butterfly, sting like a bee “…..
baz22, I know what to do, but I first must see that the SEC lets me into the ring.
Coterra Energy off 8%, had been waiting for a dip on this one. Has attractive acreage in the Marcellus, Permian and Anadarko basins; long-term agreements to supply LNG (200mmcf/day) later in the decade; energy v. uncertain right now but it you have a bit longer-term perspective this looks pretty good; close to 4% yld in the meantime.
Robert P. Balan runs Predictive Analytic Models, PAM trades risk assets using Fed, US Treasury Liquidity, Option flows.
(Part 1): Why SPX Is Still On A Bullish Trajectory Into May 16 SPX Expiry (And What Comes After)
https://x.com/RobertPBalan1/status/1919385708332032145
Doing research…this may help:
“AI-powered conference call transcripts, summaries, and insights in seconds”
“Access complete raw transcripts of conference calls for review and reference”
“Set your queries on autopilot with intelligent questionnaires”
https://knowledge.dotadda.io/
This really feels like the calm before the storm
I’m treading lightly… Crows are harbingers of bad news… I’m seeing way too many
.
I’ll seek the mountains for reflection
I think Rob will see his $ 5,000 gold… Probably $ 7,000…
” Consciousness is not a function….it is a pathway “… Stephen Hawkins
Oddly ( or maybe not ), the only thing I’m willing to hold overnight is select biotech and gold
Kyle…. Hawkins and the ‘ Black Hole Information Paradox ‘ at Cambridge…. It’s not over…> https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/wimi-announced-to-jointly-establish-a-micro-consciousness-quantum-research-center-with-microalgo-302162983.html
X
Baz … Will try to get back in the game soon. This time of year ( Spring ) just wipes me out ( mowing , HOA (paint this trim that) , fish pond , etc. ) I’ve just been shoveling shxt for weeks it seems. Hope ur well.
Here are 2 things that I saw this week :
Dimension 126 Contains Strangely Twisted Shapes, Mathematicians Prove
https://www.quantamagazine.org/dimension-126-contains-strangely-twisted-shapes-mathematicians-prove-20250505/
https://arxiv.org/abs/2412.10879
Google ‘Orb UFO in Columbia’ … may be BS BUT I have reason to believe in some of this.
working it …
https://arxiv.org/search/?query=information+paradox&searchtype=all&abstracts=show&order=-announced_date_first&size=50
My 670-page Navigator 17 Report is finished.
The DeepMind audio discussion is 35 minutes long, but it is well worth listening to. This report was the most intense 35 hours I have ever spent. I barely slept. The audio captures the depth and breadth of my analysis and reporting. I hope you enjoy it.
It’s a large file and may take some time to load.
https://notebooklm.google.com/notebook/0e23ce2d-18f5-4145-8242-abe585ba6d56/audio
This article is included in this week’s Global Market Navigator Report.
https://billcara.com/help-you-invest/investing-in-the-context-of-global-politics/
I am trying to get the Report on Substack, but there have been delays.
New Pacific Metals, long rectangle going back to mid-December. A couple of dips below and a failed breakout mid-March. I think a lot of people are trapped higher. SVM still holds a substantial amount of shares, something like 28%. But SVM is focused on the El Domo copper project in Ecuador now. Years ago, Hindenburg questioned why Rui Feng spun this out. In hindsight looks like they may have been right. Regardless, I think 1.14 would be a stupid price to sell at, but it does require the patience of a saint.
At the time, I questioned the accuracy and intent of the Hindenburg report.
One of my regrets in life. Cost me dearly.
A solid US Labor Market?
Instead of receiving 133,000 new jobs in April, the Trump administration reported 177,000 and substantially reduced the March numbers that they had cheered but are now long forgotten.
The BEA data is no longer newsworthy; it’s trash. As we’ve discussed, it’s been trash for years, but a new dynamic exists today: the ‘weaponization of fear,’ as Kamala Harris called it in her first campaign for California governor speech yesterday.
Speaking of jobs, if you are a woman or black, transgender, or an activist of any kind that opposes MAGA, and leading an important agency of the United States, then it’s likely you have your head down. You are avoiding any action or talk that might offend the thinnest-skinned president in US history, so while Garbage In Garbage Out has always been– like sausages — true, today the process of producing influential data has become particularly rotten.
Facts matter to investors. When it comes to US government administrations, we no longer get them. We haven’t for years. But with this administration, we’re on our own, which, come to think of it, is not such a bad thing. Now, we can focus on what’s important: asset quality and prices.
Microsoft knocks it out of the park and is worthy of the +9% gain this morning. But how should investors respond now?
https://billcara.com/help-you-invest/significance-of-microsofts-ai-results-the-300b-market-cap-surge/
I have done a detailed report for my weekend Navigator Report #17 . This analysis presents my thoughts on how investors should respond following the significant gain on the opening.
The US GDP shrank in Q1 by an annualized rate of -0.3%
Trump blames Biden, but the adults around his boardroom table today know it was a tariff matter.
Trump already admitted there would be front-end issues, so why lie today? If he were emotionally mature and mentally stable, he would say (i) the number is a statistical estimate, (ii) it was not unexpected because it’s part of the pain Americans would face as he is restructuring the economy and the treasury balance sheet damage caused over decades, and (iii) Americans have to tighten their belts for maybe the first year of his presidency until they see the blue sky of the future he has promised to produce.
The fact that he has the lowest ratings after 100 days in office than any president in 80 years is on him, not anybody else.
You see the difference with Canada. The Canadian Prime Minister and the provincial premiers have, in a unified voice, told Canadians to prepare for tough times because of Trump, and, as they were on Sept 10, 1939, when to support England and France, they volunteered to join the War effort more than two years ahead of the US on Dec 7, 1941 because of Pearl Harbor. Canadians volunteered to die for the Allied cause when the Americans only reacted to personal suffering. My dad didn’t have to fight. He was rejected from every service, a total of three times, because he was an Italian-Canadian and the Allies were fighting Italians and Germans. Canadians are the fighters, I assure you. When it comes to defeating the enemy, they are all action, not bluster. Because of Trump, there’s no moaning and complaining; it’s elbows up. No purchases of US goods in grocery stores or liquor stores. Eliminate tourist travel. Boycott Tesla. Sell the US real estate. Cancel contracts for US services, like Starlink. Sell US securities. This is painful, but it’s what the typical Canadian does when under attack. Trump will never understand that because the only person he is into is himself.
If and when Carney visits Trump, I assure you he will not take a knee. If Trump shows him the same disrespect that led to this US-Canada split, Carney will walk out. In typical Canadian fashion, he’ll say “Sorry.”
Trudeau is going to be back before you know it.
I learned a new word today … ” Tandemocracy ” … Trudeau & Carny.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medvedev%E2%80%93Putin_tandemocracy
For optics’ sake, Carney has to put as much distance as possible between himself and Trudeau, Kyle.
Canada is not a dictatorship, like Russia. Carney was given a slim minority in power, and Canada is not a republic, so non-confidence can result in dismissing a minority government and requiring a new election at any time. Trudeau is toxic in Canada, not quite as bad as Trump, but enough to ruin Carney’s efforts, should your tandemocracy argument become reality. Political observers will closely monitor that situation.
Carney is on his own. He has a highly capable Finance Minister, absolutely the equal of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. He has a solid man in his Trade Minister. He also has Chrystia Freeland to help negotiate new trade deals, given her experience in signing the 2017 USMCA with Trump; however, she is somewhat toxic as well. So that relationship will be upfront but downplayed.
You and I share a complete distaste for the Carney-Freeland-Trudeau adoption of the WEF playbook, but if Trump had not interfered, Canada would have ousted that group. Now Canadians have to deal with it. As I wrote in Kaimu’s blog the other day, we need to focus on Carney vs. Trump, not Carney the Pink.
The reality is that Trump has started an economic war between the US and Canada. Trump has repeatedly made threats against Canada’s sovereign right to exist peacefully and securely. Given that Trump currently holds the position of the most powerful person on earth, Canadians are taking those threats as serious as they did in 1939. Canadians will fight, I assure you.
That half of Canada is not in agreement with Carney’s politics is not the big issue. One hundred percent will stand behind him in the Carney vs. Trump conflict to come, and Canadians know that the vast majority of people in the G-7 (except the current political leaders in the US) fully support him. It wasn’t a ridiculous suggestion that King Charles made to Trump to consider joining the British Commonwealth. It was a message that 2.5 billion people, excluding those in Europe and Japan, will support Canada’s sovereignty. Carney delivered the same message in his election victory speech: If the US wants to go full MAGA, Canada has many, many alternatives.
Kyle, I forecasted the Carney result two years ago in these pages. At least call me consistent.
Bill Cara
April 30, 2023 7:53 pm
#5620
Red sky in the morning, investors take warning.
The infamous Mark Carney — the man I define as evil incarnate — says he plans to attend the upcoming Liberal Party convention in Canada.
The cynic in me begs to ask the question, “Doesn’t Justin Trudeau have enough family money parked in Cayman, or is he about to sell his leadership position as Prime Minister to Mark Carney for hundreds of millions more?”
I have never liked Trudeau, but Mark Carney is 10x worse. He is one of the powers of the World Economic Forum, where incidentally, Canada’s Deputy Prime Minister, Chrystia Freeland, is also prominent.
Despite their many years in power, we will soon hear the Liberal slogan, “Build Canada Back Better!”
Perseus Mining, I do own shares, operates three gold mines in Ivory Coast and Ghana with ~500k oz per yr production. Just gave the green light to build Nyanzaga in Tanzania which will add a little over 200k oz/year at AISC 1200. Capex is 523mm, and they do have the money to build. Early 2028 for production.
ARC Resources (AETUF) Canadian nat gas producer in Alberta; I like their acreage and infrastructure. The Coastal GasLink pipeline to Kitimat terminal in BC is complete, not sure if its operating at full capacity yet. Main theme is export of LNG from Canada to Asian markets. Shares are volatile, I’d enter on swing lows in the 17.00-17.50 range.
Doing “ok” with Pfizer (PFE) and I kind of like the dividend.