Bill Cara

Investing with Bill

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jimg
goldbug58

US just bombed three nuclear sites in Iran with B2 bombers, actually about 15 minutes ago.

goldbug58

Sold everything with the exception of Perseus Mining.

Gonamaket

What’s your thoughts on UNH.
I was thinking maybe worth buying as a contrarian play due to losing 50 percent of its value. Think their true value would be 40 to 50 percent higher. I read Bill was thinking 50 to 75 percent higher when it hit a low of 275.

goldbug58

My personal rule is never to buy a stock trading above 300 a share. You might do okay with it. It’s just not for me. If I go for a trade I want cheaper shares and a lot more of them. Leverage.

Gonamaket

Thanks.

goldbug58

You can go thru sectors like Basic Materials and Oilfield Services right now and find some reasonable entries. Things like Halliburton and Dow Inc. I’d WAIT to see the Q2 earnings however.

There are other many great companies out there BUT still trading with nosebleed prices. I’d consider these but all need a substantial correction:

Rockwell Automation
Honeywell
Air Products
Illinois Tool
Cummins
Caterpillar
IBM
KLA
Broadcom
Microsoft

gonamaket

Thanks for the info. I have also been conservative with my trading as of late. Being retired makes me focus a little more on keeping my capital protected ( short term bonds ) and staying ahead of inflation.
Don’t make a lot but sleep good….

goldbug58

Gold.
No counterparty risk.
Anonymous.
No interest paid, no taxation.
Preserves purchasing power.
Downside: security risk, needs storage, potential Cap Gains tax when sold.

Been buying since 2002 when it was 300 an oz.

AGEs, Krugerrands, Maples, Australian Swans, 1 oz bars, pre-33 US gold coins.

Very happy with it.

goldbug58

Sold a few more positions and back to 74% Cash in the brokerage account. I’m probably going to cash out and dump the brokerage. T. Rowe Price. They were fantastic way back in the day when I opened with them. Terrible customer service now and their new webpage absolutely sucks.

jimg

If things go sideways in Iran, gold and dollars will rally together, hard. The red line has been developing for 5 months.

Last edited 4 days ago by jimg
jimg

The red line

t-line
jimg

On January 9, 1991, Iraqi Minister Tariq Aziz and U.S. Secretary of State James Baker met in Geneva, Switzerland, in a final diplomatic effort to resolve the Iraqi occupation of Kuwait peacefully. These negotiations had been going on since August and they terminated on January 9. The U.S.-led coalition launched Operation Desert Storm on January 17.
The next morning, oil came in 6 lower and traded down another $7 dollars per barrel. A month later, oil was down 50% from the high on the night of the first U.S. strikes. It stayed there for the next 6 years.

baz22

The scary part is intel really doesn’t know how advanced the enrichment is deep in the Mountains… https://www.npr.org/2025/06/17/nx-s1-5436749/israel-iran-airstrikes-nuclear-attack-war

Dave

Real journalism with facts. How Twentieth Century.

Curious, I hear nothing of Trump’s capricious termination of Biden’s 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Joe chaired the Senate Foreign Relations Committee from June 2001 to 2003 and again from 2007 to 2009. He previously served as the committee’s ranking minority member. The JCPOA placed significant restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief.

Yesterday, in a social visit, old friends, a married couple, expressed deep fear of their fellow MAGA citizens with guns. They said they are afraid to speak out in any way. This is the first time I have heard this openly expressed (behind closed doors of course).

Competence and democracy matters, as many here in the US are getting schooled in, the hard way. I’ve been slowly, steadily selling down my US equities and moving into international and bonds. I’m an investor, not a trader, so it is painful but necessary. The US is getting re-rated in every area imaginable.

I’m taking this opportunity to trim my overweight energy. I held Enphase and took a spectacular round trip. Whoops.

Dave

I’m rethinking trimming my energy exposure further. Various estimates suggest that a shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz would triple or quadruple global oil prices, implying an oil price that could exceed $300. Iran possesses the capacity to sink commercial vessels there, as evidenced by the power of missiles recently used in attacks on Israel.

goldbug58

P/E ratios on Royalty//Streamers seem high:
$WPM 42
$FNV 38
$OR 35
$RGLD 25

goldbug58

I’m told that the business model on these deserves a premium, but I’m not sure THAT much of a premium.

goldbug58

Green energy, feels like it peaked four or five years ago; First Solar, Canadian Solar, Plug Power, Ballard, Bloom Energy. Lithium is another that’s been in the toilet for a few years now. Getting crushed today.

baz22

Hydrogen still has a chance… Big Oil will push when the time is right…even BP said the existing infrastructure can be retroed for liquid H2 transport
I’d stick with the actual fuel cell and electrolizer makers…. Just like BTC miners, any power company is more than completely capable of setting up their own mining operations…same as Big Oil – whom can produce ‘ grey hydrogen ‘ all day long

Last edited 4 days ago by baz22
baz22
goldbug58

I was in Bloom with a good entry and took profits last Fall on the runup in price. Don’t have any money in this sector since then.

goldbug58

See talk of splitting into a blue states//red states.
Mostly right-wing and white supremacists, but talk is out there.
We still have Proud Boys, Oath Keepers and other 1%ers.
They’ve been subdued lately but don’t think they have disappeared.

squarpeg1

I live off grid. Completely on solar. It actually works. Very hard for me to understand why, when faced with a serious environmental crisis we would not want to promote the way forward out of burning carbon based fuels. What is sad is the technology is here. The government has been subsidizing all kinds of other industries for years whether that is coal, oil or agriculture. Makes me sad to think we are just giving up and letting China be the new innovator. I guess that is where we are at, people want to go backwards in time. I don’t think it is going to end well for us.

baz22

Amen

jimg
goldbug58

Had a quick 6-day trip with Devon for 14%, sold it Friday on the +move in energy. Holding Coterra Energy and Murphy Oil. Held Helmerich & Payne shares with a 15-handle. Too early to see the futures yet. Raised cash to 55%, will watch this week while sending in a tax payment to the IRS. Gold holding remains Perseus Mining with operations in Ghana and Cote d’Ivoire and a nice looking development project in Tanzania.

baz22

Room for all .. ” Comparing fuel cells like those from Plug Power to nuclear power for data centers involves examining their respective strengths and weaknesses:
Nuclear Power:
Pros:
24/7 power: Nuclear power plants provide continuous, reliable power generation, operating at full capacity more than other energy sources.
Long-term stability: Long plant lifespans (80+ years) and stable power purchase agreement prices contribute to long-term business planning stability for data centers.
Cons:
Large scale: Nuclear power plants are massive infrastructure projects, requiring significant upfront investment and specialized expertise.
Public perception and safety concerns: Concerns about nuclear waste disposal and potential accidents remain. 
Fuel Cells (like Plug Power’s):
Pros:
On-site power generation: Fuel cells offer the potential for localized, on-site power generation for data centers, reducing reliance on the grid.
Lower emissions: Fuel cells generate power without combustion, resulting in negligible pollutant emissions compared to traditional generators.
Flexibility and scalability: They can be adapted to various data center sizes and power needs, potentially offering easier scalability.
Potential for cost parity: Experts suggest that the cost of hydrogen fuel cells for data centers could reach parity with diesel generators in the coming years.
Reduced permit constraints: They may face fewer clean air permit constraints compared to traditional power sources.
Operational flexibility: Fuel cells offer quick response times to changes in power demand.
Moving towards carbon neutrality: Using fuel cells powered by green hydrogen can contribute to data centers’ carbon neutrality goals.
Cons:
Hydrogen availability and cost: Hydrogen production and infrastructure are still developing, and the cost of hydrogen fuel can be higher than traditional fuels.
Scaling up: While promising, the question of whether fuel cells can ramp up fast enough to meet the growing demands of data centers remains. 
Conclusion:
While nuclear power offers established 24/7 power and long-term stability, Plug Power and other companies are actively developing hydrogen fuel cell technology as a promising alternative for data centers. Fuel cells offer benefits such as on-site power, lower emissions, and flexibility, with potential for cost parity in the near future. However, challenges remain regarding hydrogen infrastructure and cost, as well as the ability to meet large-scale data center energy demands. The decision depends on a data center’s specific needs, priorities, and location. “..

** Large data centers may require up to 300 MW of energy, while smaller centers can vary, around 20 MW….
SMR’s would be necessary for the Google type centers… companies like Fuel Cell are sufficient for smaller centers

……”. Yes, companies like FuelCell Energy, Inc. can and do service data centers, providing them with reliable and sustainable power solutions. FuelCell Energy, specifically, has experience in deploying multi-megawatt fuel cell power plants and microgrids, which are suitable for the energy demands of data centers. 
Here’s why fuel cells are increasingly being considered for data centers:
Sustainability: Fuel cells offer a cleaner alternative to traditional power sources like diesel generators, producing significantly lower or zero emissions, especially when using hydrogen as fuel.
Reliability: Fuel cells can provide consistent and uninterrupted power, crucial for data center operations. They can act as both primary and backup power sources.
Efficiency: Fuel cells are known for their high efficiency in converting fuel to electricity.
Scalability and Flexibility: Fuel cell systems can be scaled up or down based on data center needs and can integrate with existing energy infrastructures.
Rapid Deployment: Fuel cells offer rapid deployment options for data centers looking to expand their power generation quickly. 
FuelCell Energy specifically:
Has experience in deploying multi-megawatt fuel cell plants and microgrids, including those for data centers.
Partnerships, such as the one with Diversified Energy and TESIAC, demonstrate their commitment to providing significant power capacity (up to 360 MW) to data centers in specific regions.
Their fuel cell technology can utilize fuels like natural gas, hydrogen, or biogas, and their plants can be integrated with other energy generation sources like solar and wind. 
Examples of companies utilizing fuel cells for data centers:
American Electric Power (AEP): Offering fuel cell solutions to support growing energy needs of large customers, including data centers.
Equinix: Has invested significantly in Bloom Energy fuel cells for their data centers.
Microsoft: Has piloted and tested hydrogen fuel cell systems for backup power in data centers.
Bloom Energy: Provides on-site power generation solutions to data centers, including those supporting AI workloads.
CoreWeave: Utilizing fuel cells to meet the power demands of their high-density computing facilities. 
While there are challenges to widespread adoption, such as hydrogen production and infrastructure development, the increasing demand for sustainable and reliable energy solutions makes fuel cells a compelling option for data centers. 

Last edited 7 days ago by baz22
baz22

Size does matter….. Urban congestion… Cities like ‘ Old Savannah ‘ are an ideal representation of how communities can be planned.. plat’s or squares will work…

https://www.georgiaencyclopedia.org/articles/history-archaeology/savannah-city-plan/

Last edited 7 days ago by baz22
Chris

From Bloomberg article:
Bank of America Corp.’s institutional clients have offloaded stocks for five consecutive weeks, according to the firm’s latest flow figures published Tuesday by equity and quantitative strategist Jill Carey Hall. Their cumulative selling through this point in the year is the most in the bank’s data history going back to 2008.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fear-uncertainty-held-p-500-120001315.html

goldbug58

12% up move in crude now; is anyone even alive here?

Chris

😂you are not alone.

basketguy

A blip yes…Trand change since 2022 maybe. But easy money has been sell it until it tells you not too….  goldbug58

cl1
baz22

Yes !!… Beaten all to heck, maybe…just maybe… Definitely long term if bought… https://finance.yahoo.com/news/plug-power-just-landed-5-205136061.html

Last edited 9 days ago by baz22
basketguy

 baz22 Yeah, Not for me…Plug has lost over 99% of its value over the last 25 years. This was a 1500.00 plus stock back in the day. Easy money here has been to short the rallies fo Sho….

baz22

😁
The worm is turning

Last edited 8 days ago by baz22
Tom

Indeed, the worm may be turning. I have not studied it, but intuitively, I guess you could argue that as the price of oil increases (especially if the futures outlook is volatile / uncertain), then alternatives would naturally catch a bid. If true, then I can see where PLUG would catch a bid and potentially go higher as long as the Isreal – Iran conflict continues and/or has no end in sight.

baz22

Yes… But, ( Europe especially ) more and more entities are switching to alternative fuel sources…and, as peak oil approaches, what then ?..the technology will continue to advance…

Last edited 8 days ago by baz22
baz22

And something we’ve never discussed here – ‘ white hydrogen ,’ ..https://fuelcellsworks.com/news/what-is-white-hydrogen-and-why-is-it-called-the-infinite-oil-of-the-future
I’m relatively sure that everyone here knows of the difficulty of hydrogen extraction, transfer, and potential safety issues – just as we know the risks of nuclear energy use… So let’s get past that and consider the future for our children, their children and this place we all live, called Earth…

Last edited 8 days ago by baz22
goldbug58

WTI +2.27 or 3.34% to 70.31 overnight; Brent up similar as Israel bombs Tehran.

goldbug58

NASDAQ 10.9 Billion shares traded as of 1pm today, will likely set a daily record.