A tremendous amount of work is being done to upgrade this site and produce my daily and weekly reports, which will soon be evident. I am extremely pleased.
jimg
June 3, 2025 2:43 pm
#46952
Latest estimate: 4.6 percent — June 02, 2025 The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 4.6 percent on June 2, up from 3.8 percent on May 30.
Morgan Stanley analyst predicts a 9% decline in the US Dollar over the next year. Matthew Hornbach, global head of macro strategy at Morgan Stanley, told the Bloomberg TV audience why interest rate cuts and slowing growth will cause the US dollar to tumble around 9% from current levels by the middle of next year.
The message here is that the broad market is likely to be lower a year from now. I agree. Investors are not yet properly discounting Trump’s tariffs. Imports are falling, and some of these goods are essential to domestic manufacturing.
Trump claims that the tariffs are forcing foreign manufacturers to lower prices on shipments to the US, but what is actually happening is that foreign manufacturers are finding markets outside the US — just like foreign tourists are finding other travel locations.
The proof will be in the pudding, but a relatively weaker economy at the same time as a relatively faster-growing national debt to GDP will weaken the US Dollar.
The international semiconductor industry is a good example.
US goods require chips from global manufacturers. Those manufacturers can sell their production elsewhere. The US market is huge, but there are alternatives. If Boeing, Ford, and GM, for example, cannot obtain the necessary chips to manufacture their products, their production lines will slow or stop.
The international manufacturer can withhold deliveries to the US if it believes in the TACO concept.
We have started to work on the automation aspects that will enable me to not have to work Friday and Saturday nights until 1:45 am (and be back at it at 6:30 am).
It’s getting easier, though. I almost finished before the Formula One car race from Barcelona this morning. Then there was the race and also I had to spend more time with my doctor at the clinic. She wants a biopsy taken this week of a concerning skin issue. Not to worry. I feel healthier now than I have in over 20 years.
I will now also be writing Trade Tactics Daily for active traders (mostly day traders). I did an introduction in this week’s Navigator report.
This weekend, the techies were working on moving billcara.com from my server in Germany to the Cloud. So, everything’s good.
BTW, the podcast link can be shared by anybody. Please feel free to share it.
looking at chinese stock with low RSI— BIDU/PDD MSFT and APPLE are lot lower than 52 wk HIgh and will buy them on Monday + NVDA to hold for long term, (over a year) also will buy XLE–XLV–XPH , instead of holding all cash, I rather park my money here in these ETF for a year Interesting low price but not touching them right now — they are HAL/BKR/MUR
I monitor and pay attention to only 50 stock I like , don’t pay much atten to other thousand of stocks, unless once a while someone makes headline???
did good in SMMT –in and out many times, will get in on monday
Nobody can go into the weekend short the market because nobody knows if we wake up tomorrow to a Truth Social comment that Xi Jinping picked up the phone. More than 90% of the rally off the April lows came from only four sessions: the first from the pause of the blanket reciprocal tariffs, the second from the China reprieve, the third from the EU reprieve, and the fourth from the recent trade court ruling. It’s called investing around headlines.
This is a day trader’s market, which is another way of saying that the pro traders at your favorite Humongous Bank & Broker (HB&B) are legally taking money from your accounts.
I’ve found, personally, that just trading One different stock daily works best… Yes, I’ll make more than one trade per day, but not until I’ve sold one, then, started another if things are good…it can be the same stock, or an entirely different one The issue is, imo, you absolutely have to know the companies you are trading – not just a glance at charts and statistics…it has to be a deep understanding of that company’s history, inside and out.. I believe that’s why one of Bills trader friends said it would take 10 years of experience to have a grasp on trading ….Now, that’s for Trading…issues like TIL at $ 12 should be a hold for the time to tell….yet, you still Need to Know it’s history as well…so when SMMT had a bad news report, it was instantly a ‘ Sell ‘ signal for TIL Then, wait till the dust settles Exactly the opposite for CLF Friday pm. when Trump announced the 50% tarrifs on imported steel Regardless of Monday, CLF was a screaming ‘ Buy ‘ for 1 1/2 hours
My Thanks as well. Perhaps we can get the transcript and discuss some of these points. From a Politics viewpoint, I do think that this type of person is what our Founding Fathers Hoped would become President.
Someone Older, Experienced in the World & with enough Money that they put the country before themselves, i.e., they’re in “Give Back” mode
Kyle, we all need it because our perceptions are so turned by narratives today, and we need the perspective that a person like Dimon can share. Hopefully, we get to discuss it here.
The one drawback is that any President has stakeholders (voters and lobbyists) to satisfy. Given that Jamie Dimon’s JP Morgan Chase Bank, the world’s largest, must satisfy stakeholders of all stripes, his words have gravitas. Perhaps we need to double the number of senators (at a lower cost each) so that more of them will speak their minds instead of reciting their party narratives.
In a news release, Gap said new 30% duties on imports from China and a 10% levy on imports from most other countries will cost the company between $250 million and $300 million without mitigation efforts. For now, it’s leaving that impact out of its guidance.
jimg
May 30, 2025 8:23 am
#46874
Mike Green: Tariffs and AI will be huge deflationary forces rolling through the economy
Platinum open interest is up 16k lots in 8 sessions.
OI is near an all-time high. Nine years of range compression plus rising volume could ignite a scramble for liquidity in a very thin market. The narrative is really just one word: China. Gold is up 6× vs. XPT since the bottom in 2008. Anglo is going to spin off its XPT biz (AMPLATS) next week.
“I’m going to destroy the European economy with 50% tariffs (whispers to himself…that will also destroy the US economy)… Just kidding!”
When does this nonsense stop? If Trump weren’t President, his associates would have him committed. He’s abusing the office, and in response, the international world leaders are making trade and military agreements that exclude the US.
Despite what some Trumpers may choose to believe, my reports are non-partisan. That in itself is an ironic statement because I happen to be right-of-center conservative, probably more so than many of my critics.
Not in my reports, but in my comments on this website and in personal communications, I have always referred to Trump as “despicable” and “criminal.” At this point, I believe he is unwell and unfit to be the President. Whether some of you accept this perspective or not, it’s hard to argue that increasing numbers of Americans as well as hundreds of millions of observers worldwide are in agreement.
How anybody could say that Trump’s West Point commencement speech yesterday was that of a fit and proper commander-in-chief would be shocking except that Trumpers don’t seem to care. However, everybody should care that America is sliding into bankruptcy and Trump’s policies, while possibly being beneficial in a decade or so, are worsening the crisis in the short-term.
As the saying goes, “We’ll all be dead someday.” It’s today that’s important.
Most folks do not understand that journalists are highly educated professionals with a sincere desire to participate in the fourth branch of our US democracy. Journalists with major media organizations will be fired for violating journalistic codes of ethics.
Moderate Republicans have for decades repeated the false talking point of the so-called ”liberal” media. Define “liberal” as highly intelligent and informed professionals speaking truth to power and telling you what you do not want to hear, but need to hear.
If someone is listening to internet personalities who are pedaling fear and hate to generate maximum clicks for cash, well, it speaks for itself.
Themes common to codes of journalistic standards include:
1) Professional journalists are expected to be as accurate as possible given the time allotted for story preparation and the space available, and to seek reliable sources.
2) Properly using their sources and using accurate quoting and use of words from interview or conversation.
3) Events with a single eyewitness are reported with attribution. Events with two or more independent eyewitnesses may be reported as fact. Controversial facts are reported with attribution.
4) Independent fact-checking by another employee of the publisher is desirable.
5) ETC.
King Trump is the opposite. Vague references like: A lot of people are saying …Everybody’s talking about it. I’ve heard that …A lot of people tell me …
Vague Adjectives: amazing / beautiful / best / big league / brilliant / elegant / fabulous / fantastic / fine / good / great / happy / honest / incredible / nice / outstanding / phenomenal / powerful / sophisticated / special / strong / successful / top / tremendous / unbelievable/ boring / complete and total / crooked / disgusting / dishonest / dopey / dumb / goofy / horrible / interesting* / not good / obsolete / out of control / overrated / pathetic / ridiculous / rude / sad / scary / stupid / terrible / unfair / weak / worst.
Joseph Goebbels: “Make the lie big, make it simple, keep saying it, and eventually they will believe it.”
Apparently, many in the US don’t know history and thus, perhaps, we are all doomed to repeat it.
Since I will be releasing the Navigator Report only to subscribers, and I’m spending less time commenting here, I decided to publish the weekly Briefing Doc and Podcast on this website. That way, for this week, 676 pages can be reviewed with 5 minutes of reading and 23 minutes listening to cover what I see as important in the global financial markets.
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says markets are too complacent on tariffs, expects S&P 500 earnings growth to collapse.
Dimon, the veteran CEO and chairman of the biggest U.S. bank by assets, explained his worldview during his bank’s annual investor day meeting in New York. He said he believes the risks of higher inflation and even stagflation aren’t properly represented by stock market values, which have staged a comeback from lows in April.
“We have huge deficits; we have what I consider almost complacent central banks,” Dimon said. “You all think they can manage all this. I don’t think they can,” he said.
“My own view is people feel pretty good because you haven’t seen effective tariffs,” Dimon said. “The market came down 10%, [it’s] back up 10%. That’s an extraordinary amount of complacency.”
Dimon said Monday that he believed Wall Street earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies, which have already declined in the first weeks of Trump’s trade policies, will fall further as companies pull or lower guidance amid the uncertainty.
I hope this community follows NYUGrad at Substack because he does good work. I’m always pleased to see him post here.
A tremendous amount of work is being done to upgrade this site and produce my daily and weekly reports, which will soon be evident. I am extremely pleased.
Latest estimate: 4.6 percent — June 02, 2025
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 4.6 percent on June 2, up from 3.8 percent on May 30.
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow?item=4ba301aa-60b3-4923-9b07-5b55ea9d7495
I won’t even believe it if I see it.
?
The OECD has today made a significant update to its global economic forecast for 2025 and 2026.
https://billcara.com/help-you-invest/slower-growth-higher-stakes-what-the-oecds-forecast-means-for-investors/
Interesting Alzheimer’s work.. ALZN….
Morgan Stanley analyst predicts a 9% decline in the US Dollar over the next year.
Matthew Hornbach, global head of macro strategy at Morgan Stanley, told the Bloomberg TV audience why interest rate cuts and slowing growth will cause the US dollar to tumble around 9% from current levels by the middle of next year.
The message here is that the broad market is likely to be lower a year from now. I agree. Investors are not yet properly discounting Trump’s tariffs. Imports are falling, and some of these goods are essential to domestic manufacturing.
Trump claims that the tariffs are forcing foreign manufacturers to lower prices on shipments to the US, but what is actually happening is that foreign manufacturers are finding markets outside the US — just like foreign tourists are finding other travel locations.
The proof will be in the pudding, but a relatively weaker economy at the same time as a relatively faster-growing national debt to GDP will weaken the US Dollar.
The international semiconductor industry is a good example.
US goods require chips from global manufacturers. Those manufacturers can sell their production elsewhere. The US market is huge, but there are alternatives. If Boeing, Ford, and GM, for example, cannot obtain the necessary chips to manufacture their products, their production lines will slow or stop.
The international manufacturer can withhold deliveries to the US if it believes in the TACO concept.
Navigator Report #21 Briefing Doc
https://billcara.com/help-you-invest/briefing-document-global-markets-navigator-report-excerpts-gm-nav-21-june-1-2025/
The weekly Global Market Navigator Report #21 has been published. All 698 pages.
I’m pleased to share the podcast link: https://notebooklm.google.com/notebook/a87e0eba-9ca3-4090-b6fc-d5bf0711f87d/audio.
We have started to work on the automation aspects that will enable me to not have to work Friday and Saturday nights until 1:45 am (and be back at it at 6:30 am).
It’s getting easier, though. I almost finished before the Formula One car race from Barcelona this morning. Then there was the race and also I had to spend more time with my doctor at the clinic. She wants a biopsy taken this week of a concerning skin issue. Not to worry. I feel healthier now than I have in over 20 years.
I will now also be writing Trade Tactics Daily for active traders (mostly day traders). I did an introduction in this week’s Navigator report.
This weekend, the techies were working on moving billcara.com from my server in Germany to the Cloud. So, everything’s good.
BTW, the podcast link can be shared by anybody. Please feel free to share it.
looking at chinese stock with low RSI— BIDU/PDD
MSFT and APPLE are lot lower than 52 wk HIgh and will buy them on Monday + NVDA to hold for long term, (over a year)
also will buy XLE–XLV–XPH , instead of holding all cash, I rather park my money here in these ETF for a year
Interesting low price but not touching them right now — they are HAL/BKR/MUR
I monitor and pay attention to only 50 stock I like , don’t pay much atten to other thousand of stocks, unless once a while someone makes headline???
did good in SMMT –in and out many times, will get in on monday
David Rosenberg provides the facts.
@EconguyRosie
This is a day trader’s market, which is another way of saying that the pro traders at your favorite Humongous Bank & Broker (HB&B) are legally taking money from your accounts.
I’ve found, personally, that just trading One different stock daily works best… Yes, I’ll make more than one trade per day, but not until I’ve sold one, then, started another if things are good…it can be the same stock, or an entirely different one
The issue is, imo, you absolutely have to know the companies you are trading – not just a glance at charts and statistics…it has to be a deep understanding of that company’s history, inside and out..
I believe that’s why one of Bills trader friends said it would take 10 years of experience to have a grasp on trading
….Now, that’s for Trading…issues like TIL at $ 12 should be a hold for the time to tell….yet, you still Need to Know it’s history as well…so when SMMT had a bad news report, it was instantly a ‘ Sell ‘ signal for TIL
Then, wait till the dust settles
Exactly the opposite for CLF Friday pm. when Trump announced the 50% tarrifs on imported steel
Regardless of Monday, CLF was a screaming ‘ Buy ‘ for 1 1/2 hours
I completely agree that active traders ought to focus on one task at a time, particularly when day trading.
This blog is about active trading, not investing, and it (and others like it) should be in the Traders Community.
Sorry…was just trying to add a bit to the day trade market observation
Hudbay Minerals staff evacuate Flin Flon, Man., due to wildfires
https://www.thestar.com/business/hudbay-minerals-staff-evacuate-flin-flon-man-due-to-wildfires/article_23ed0c1b-778e-5855-91e3-5ebb0b2e69fd.html
Jamie Dimon: Financial Leadership Par Excellence at the Reagan Economic Forum.
Google this to get the full talk. Just brilliant. I don’t recall anything better or more timely, possibly ever.
CNBC has snippets, but will likely produce the entire piece at once. Get it and save it.
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2025/05/30/jpmorgan-ceo-we-shouldnt-be-stockpiling-bitcoin-we-should-be-stockpiling-bullets.html
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2025/05/30/jpmorgan-ceo-jamie-dimon-china-is-a-potential-adversary-but-i-worry-about-us-the-enemy-within.html
Agree Completely. That was Excellent. He was being (somewhat) polite for the audience, BUT it seemed like he was ready to unload in a private meeting.
Full interview (behind paywall):
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2025/05/30/pro-watch-cnbcas-full-interview-with-jpmorgan-ceo-jamie-dimon.html
Here it is (no paywall) from the Reagan Foundation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1NHLha3jG2g
Thank you, Kieran.
Can anybody get us a transcript?
My Thanks as well. Perhaps we can get the transcript and discuss some of these points. From a Politics viewpoint, I do think that this type of person is what our Founding Fathers Hoped would become President.
Someone Older, Experienced in the World & with enough Money that they put the country before themselves, i.e., they’re in “Give Back” mode
Kyle, we all need it because our perceptions are so turned by narratives today, and we need the perspective that a person like Dimon can share. Hopefully, we get to discuss it here.
The one drawback is that any President has stakeholders (voters and lobbyists) to satisfy. Given that Jamie Dimon’s JP Morgan Chase Bank, the world’s largest, must satisfy stakeholders of all stripes, his words have gravitas. Perhaps we need to double the number of senators (at a lower cost each) so that more of them will speak their minds instead of reciting their party narratives.
Jamie Dimon “You are going to see a crack in the bond market”
https://x.com/DavidLe76335983/status/1928608882760245562
Transcription:
https://maestra.ai/tools/video-to-text/youtube-transcript-generator?v=1NHLha3jG2g
The cost of Trump’s trade wars hits Gap hard.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/29/gap-earnings-q1-2025.html
Mike Green: Tariffs and AI will be huge deflationary forces rolling through the economy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8fJI2dQUZ64
Definitely starting NTLA…No hospitalization, enzymes improving correctly… https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/hc-wainwright-maintains-30-target-on-intellia-stock-postsafety-update-93CH-4070120
In the Trading Community ( I didn’t post here ) I decided to wait on NTLA…
Might be time to close your shorts.
US court blocks Trump’s sweeping tariffs, citing overreach of authority | Reuters
Nvidia (NVDA) report
Analyzed by Grok.
https://billcara.com/help-you-invest/nvidia-nvda-q1-fy2026-earnings-report/
Platinum open interest is up 16k lots in 8 sessions.
OI is near an all-time high. Nine years of range compression plus rising volume could ignite a scramble for liquidity in a very thin market. The narrative is really just one word: China. Gold is up 6× vs. XPT since the bottom in 2008. Anglo is going to spin off its XPT biz (AMPLATS) next week.
BBG: https://archive.is/LaXgD
Today can be explained in one sentence.
“I’m going to destroy the European economy with 50% tariffs (whispers to himself…that will also destroy the US economy)… Just kidding!”
When does this nonsense stop? If Trump weren’t President, his associates would have him committed. He’s abusing the office, and in response, the international world leaders are making trade and military agreements that exclude the US.
My favorite response from AI to date.
“Our apologies, your request is as expansive as the galaxy itself. Could you make it more terrestrial for us?”
I am pushing the limits.
A focus on the fiscal crisis of America and why it’s getting worse.
https://billcara.com/help-you-invest/trump-policies-and-the-fiscal-crisis-in-america-today/
Despite what some Trumpers may choose to believe, my reports are non-partisan. That in itself is an ironic statement because I happen to be right-of-center conservative, probably more so than many of my critics.
Not in my reports, but in my comments on this website and in personal communications, I have always referred to Trump as “despicable” and “criminal.” At this point, I believe he is unwell and unfit to be the President. Whether some of you accept this perspective or not, it’s hard to argue that increasing numbers of Americans as well as hundreds of millions of observers worldwide are in agreement.
How anybody could say that Trump’s West Point commencement speech yesterday was that of a fit and proper commander-in-chief would be shocking except that Trumpers don’t seem to care. However, everybody should care that America is sliding into bankruptcy and Trump’s policies, while possibly being beneficial in a decade or so, are worsening the crisis in the short-term.
As the saying goes, “We’ll all be dead someday.” It’s today that’s important.
Today is Memorial Day.
how much does the totalitarian journalism of the leftist dominated media influence…?… I’m thinking Greatly
Most folks do not understand that journalists are highly educated professionals with a sincere desire to participate in the fourth branch of our US democracy. Journalists with major media organizations will be fired for violating journalistic codes of ethics.
Moderate Republicans have for decades repeated the false talking point of the so-called ”liberal” media. Define “liberal” as highly intelligent and informed professionals speaking truth to power and telling you what you do not want to hear, but need to hear.
If someone is listening to internet personalities who are pedaling fear and hate to generate maximum clicks for cash, well, it speaks for itself.
Themes common to codes of journalistic standards include:
1) Professional journalists are expected to be as accurate as possible given the time allotted for story preparation and the space available, and to seek reliable sources.
2) Properly using their sources and using accurate quoting and use of words from interview or conversation.
3) Events with a single eyewitness are reported with attribution. Events with two or more independent eyewitnesses may be reported as fact. Controversial facts are reported with attribution.
4) Independent fact-checking by another employee of the publisher is desirable.
5) ETC.
King Trump is the opposite. Vague references like: A lot of people are saying …Everybody’s talking about it. I’ve heard that …A lot of people tell me …
Vague Adjectives: amazing / beautiful / best / big league / brilliant / elegant / fabulous / fantastic / fine / good / great / happy / honest / incredible / nice / outstanding / phenomenal / powerful / sophisticated / special / strong / successful / top / tremendous / unbelievable/ boring / complete and total / crooked / disgusting / dishonest / dopey / dumb / goofy / horrible / interesting* / not good / obsolete / out of control / overrated / pathetic / ridiculous / rude / sad / scary / stupid / terrible / unfair / weak / worst.
Joseph Goebbels: “Make the lie big, make it simple, keep saying it, and eventually they will believe it.”
Apparently, many in the US don’t know history and thus, perhaps, we are all doomed to repeat it.
Walter Cronkite’s final sign-off was on March 6, 1981. Journalistic integrity DIED then.
That was the END of it.
Navigator Report 20 Briefing Doc.
https://billcara.com/help-you-invest/briefing-document-navigator-report-20-review/
Since I will be releasing the Navigator Report only to subscribers, and I’m spending less time commenting here, I decided to publish the weekly Briefing Doc and Podcast on this website. That way, for this week, 676 pages can be reviewed with 5 minutes of reading and 23 minutes listening to cover what I see as important in the global financial markets.
NYUGrad on Substack
Not Your Advisor
I hope this community follows NYUGrad at Substack because he does good work. I’m always pleased to see him post here.
The Global Markets Weekly Navigator Report #20 has been published.
Here is the audio discussion. 23 minutes.
https://notebooklm.google.com/notebook/b4d48dcb-4b39-467d-b6dc-d74ffcba6965/audio
For all that have served… https://youtu.be/jhdFe3evXpk?si=po8flp7t-EJaOlMT
Dire Straits — that song is “from GOD” …
Here’s another one from Culpeper Cemetery …
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/M3TIG5wKzKY
Much appreciated…. Thank you