I am a student of Price Action. Right or wrong, in the end only price matters…Stories are written sometimes before if the writer was lucky and usually after. We can all claim we picked a top if we have been calling for a top for months or years. We can also pick a tradeable bottom, if for days, weeks months we have been writing about one. I have been watching TNX the 10 year treasury for some time now. Something has me thinking we get ONE final PUMP into a real big Dump…Catalyst, well maybe Trump saying each and everyday that POWELL needs to go. You see the narrative is already been set…Trump gets a PUMP above 5% on the 10 year. He then calls again for the incompetence of the FED and has POWELL removed…Then the DUMP as trump touts lower rates…Then the real pain as rates climb into the 6-7% range and higher… That is what I see, Now I will wait to see if we get that PUMP for the DUMP…STAY TUNED….
Lyondell-Basell (LYB); chemicals; earnings miss, shares off about 3%. Yield is very high at the moment, over 10%; you’d think they’d cut; yet just declared for holders of 25 August, payable 2 Sept.
Last edited 3 hours ago by goldbug58
jimg
August 4, 2025 10:57 am
#47971
According to FactSet, “[as of August 1, 2025], 66% of S&P 500 companies (approximately 330 companies) have reported actual results for Q2 2025. S&P earnings growth for Q2 2025 is 9% year-over-year, the third consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. 82% of reporting companies beat earnings per share (EPS) estimates, above the 5-year average (78%) and 10-year average (75%), potentially the highest since Q3 2021 (82%).
Do my audio files work? Good question, as sometimes they do and sometimes not. So I asked Google Gemini for the answer.
Here’s the answer, but honestly, life’s too short to put up with this nonsense.
This is a frustrating and common issue with sharing digital content, and it’s a great question. The problem likely lies in the specific type of Google account you’re using.
Based on information from Google’s help resources and user discussions, here’s the most likely reason for the “RESTRICTED” access and how to solve it:
The Core Problem: Account Type
Public sharing of Audio Overviews and entire notebooks is currently restricted to personal use Google accounts. If you are using a Google Workspace account (an email from a business, school, or university), the public sharing features are disabled by default. Your Workspace administrator must enable these features, as they are often disabled for security and privacy reasons.
This explains why it sometimes works and sometimes doesn’t. You might be successfully sharing links from a personal Gmail account, but when you switch to your work or school account, the sharing fails, resulting in a “RESTRICTED” error for your recipients.
How to Solve the Problem
Here are the solutions, depending on your situation:
Use a Personal Google Account for Public Sharing: This is the most reliable and direct solution. If you need to share an Audio Overview with people outside of your organization, use NotebookLM with your personal Google account (e.g., [email protected]). This is the only way to guarantee the “Anyone with a link” setting will work for public sharing.
Download the Audio and Share the File: A straightforward workaround is to download the Audio Overview and share the resulting file (e.g., an MP3) directly.
In the audio player, look for a “Download” button or icon.
Save the file to your computer.
You can then upload and share this file via Google Drive, Dropbox, or email, just like any other file. This completely bypasses the sharing restrictions within NotebookLM.
If you’re a Workspace User, Contact Your Admin: If you must use your work or school account, your only recourse is to talk to your Google Workspace administrator. They can enable NotebookLM and its sharing features for your domain, but they may have policies in place that prevent them from doing so.
Verify Your Google Account Age: NotebookLM is only available to users over 18. If your Google Account lacks age verification or is under 18, it may also cause access issues for both you and the people you share with.
In summary, the “RESTRICTED” error is almost certainly due to sharing limitations on Google Workspace accounts. The best solution is to either use a personal account for public links or download the audio file and share it separately.
So, maybe it works, and maybe not!
Using a different platform this weekend — also with a PRO subscription — I submitted a job that resulted in a total mess. After 12 hours of trying to fix it, I managed about a 95% recovery. Yet, precisely the same prompt and file format, including headers and instruments, ran perfectly the week before with just one attempt.
Too busy to check or to learn how to set these things up correctly.
baz22(@baz22)
August 2, 2025 3:18 pm
#47950
Liquidity will be the issue when the real selling begins….” A relatively small percentage of Bitcoin holders control a disproportionately large share of the cryptocurrency. Specifically, a study by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) indicated that roughly 0.01% of Bitcoin holders controlled 27% of the currency. This highlights a significant concentration of wealth within the Bitcoin ecosystem. “… I had previously believed BTC could work… But as Bill pointed out so often, the ETF’s ( and now company after company treasuries ) will run the original ideas into the ground..
Last edited 1 day ago by baz22
jimg
August 2, 2025 11:19 am
#47944
Looking for investment ideas? The money will flow like water….
The MASC program represents the greatest shift towards an unmanned fleet the U.S. Navy has seen in several years and will likely grow in scale and scope as further requirements are refined with prospective manufacturers.
No 10-year design cycles. No studies. No exquisite, over-spec’d platforms. Just clear operational need – containerized combat payloads delivered fast – and a willingness to buy modular, commercial, and autonomous vessels that meet it. This is being done under Other Transaction Authority (OTA) – meaning the Navy can move fast, partner creatively, and buy from companies that can’t comply with traditional bureaucratic hurdles.
For those of us pushing for acquisition reform, distributed lethality, and a more resilient industrial base – this is now a flagship program for the entire Pentagon.
Noticing a pattern with earnings; company beats slightly or comes in slightly under expectations and shares get destroyed. Eastman Chemical off 20% Fluor Corp off 31%
Took profits in the Canadian energy names, rolled into Baxter International and Novo Nordisk on pretty sharp sell-off in the shares. Bottom fishing, I know.
jimg
July 31, 2025 12:25 pm
#47896
There are no coincidences?
“On July 28, 2025, Goldman Sachs withdrew its long Comex-LME spread trade recommendation, citing the possibility of the Trump administration striking copper-supply deals that could mitigate the impact of the tariffs on U.S. pricing.”
The note was published by Bloomberg Law an unusual source.
Two days later, Trump exempted refined copper from tariffs.
I really don’t know how much more of this stuff- coming from Trump- I can take.
President Donald Trump has recently made several public statements downplaying inflation in the U.S.—including assertions that there is “no inflation” and that gas prices have dropped to $1.99 per gallon “across the country.” An examination of the latest economic data and market realities shows these claims are not just misleading—they are factually false and contradicted by reliable statistics and widespread experience.
The Average Gas Prices (July 2025): The national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline in July 2025 was between $3.12 and $3.16 not the $1.99 touted by Trump.
Trump’s repeated claim of “$1.99 gas all over the country” is blatantly untrue. As of this month, only a single gas station in rural Texas offered $1.99 per gallon—and this was a limited-time disaster relief discount, not a norm for consumers even there.
Prices have continued to edge higher in key categories like food, autos, and energy but it has not “ended” or been “defeated.” Core prices—especially in essential goods like housing, property taxes, insurance, groceries, automobiles, and utility bills—remain elevated or continue to rise, squeezing household budgets further.
Trump’s statements such as “No Inflation! Let people buy, and refinance, their homes!” simply do not reflect the reality of millions struggling with housing and cost-of-living pressures. Housing alone are up massively over the past 5 years not to mention the property taxes that get jacked up as a result.
U.S. consumers continue to experience elevated prices for everyday necessities, and gas prices—though off their highs—have not reached his claimed levels in any widespread fashion. Such statements can be fact-checked in moments by referencing government and industry data, which show that inflation still persists and that the proclaimed drop in fuel costs is an illusion, not reality.
The Starbucks Q3 earnings report is out. The Bloomberg TV chyron flashed the breaking news that Starbucks’ same-store sales exceeded expectations. They did not.
Investors must stop getting their news from TV. When earnings reports are filed, the company issues a news release of the facts it reported to the SEC. Despite Bloomberg’s chyron, the facts tell a different story:
Global comparable store sales actually declined 2% in Q3 FY25.
In the US comp sales also fell 2%, driven by a 4% drop in transactions, slightly offset by a 2% increase in ticket size.
China showed improvement, with comp sales up 2%, thanks to a 6% boost in transactions, although average ticket shrank 4%.
So, China performed well, but company wide, there was no truth that comps “exceeded expectations.” It’s a slight miss globally and a notable underperformance in the US.
Moreover, while the Y/Y picture showed a +3.8% modest growth in revenue, overall EPS dropped about 46.5%. Operating margins dropped from 16.7% a year ago to this quarter’s 10.0%. And cash flow YTD dropped -26% from $4.56B to $3.37B,
Anybody except maybe Bloomberg and CNBC can see that Starbucks did not perform well. I view Starbucks as one of the Global Best 100 watchlist companies, but the stock (SBUX) is a different matter. It’s been on my Preferred List for a while — as in Prefer to Avoid.
Thank you to those who have joined me on Substack. We’re growing even faster than the US debt, as the graphic below shows. I think we’re up to 18 subscribers!
Ah, think of it as starting late in life. It’s all good.
Substack will soon become the publisher of this website, as well as a premium newsletter (or two), and my weekly Navigator reports, and all my eBooks that I am revising for 2025 editions.
I am a student of Price Action. Right or wrong, in the end only price matters…Stories are written sometimes before if the writer was lucky and usually after. We can all claim we picked a top if we have been calling for a top for months or years. We can also pick a tradeable bottom, if for days, weeks months we have been writing about one. I have been watching TNX the 10 year treasury for some time now. Something has me thinking we get ONE final PUMP into a real big Dump…Catalyst, well maybe Trump saying each and everyday that POWELL needs to go. You see the narrative is already been set…Trump gets a PUMP above 5% on the 10 year. He then calls again for the incompetence of the FED and has POWELL removed…Then the DUMP as trump touts lower rates…Then the real pain as rates climb into the 6-7% range and higher…
That is what I see, Now I will wait to see if we get that PUMP for the DUMP…STAY TUNED….
Lyondell-Basell (LYB); chemicals; earnings miss, shares off about 3%. Yield is very high at the moment, over 10%; you’d think they’d cut; yet just declared for holders of 25 August, payable 2 Sept.
According to FactSet, “[as of August 1, 2025], 66% of S&P 500 companies (approximately 330 companies) have reported actual results for Q2 2025. S&P earnings growth for Q2 2025 is 9% year-over-year, the third consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. 82% of reporting companies beat earnings per share (EPS) estimates, above the 5-year average (78%) and 10-year average (75%), potentially the highest since Q3 2021 (82%).
Do my audio files work? Good question, as sometimes they do and sometimes not. So I asked Google Gemini for the answer.
Here’s the answer, but honestly, life’s too short to put up with this nonsense.
So, maybe it works, and maybe not!
Using a different platform this weekend — also with a PRO subscription — I submitted a job that resulted in a total mess. After 12 hours of trying to fix it, I managed about a 95% recovery. Yet, precisely the same prompt and file format, including headers and instruments, ran perfectly the week before with just one attempt.
AI isn’t making life easier!
Navigator Report #30 Audio File
https://notebooklm.google.com/notebook/74d9fbcd-61e2-40e2-876e-1fbb287d74ff
I send these 450-page weekly reports out to my subscribers at billcaradotcome.substack.com
Audio file
https://notebooklm.google.com/notebook/0c56a4bd-b509-42c5-a104-47f1dfb2728d
Maybe it works.
Too busy to check or to learn how to set these things up correctly.
Liquidity will be the issue when the real selling begins….” A relatively small percentage of Bitcoin holders control a disproportionately large share of the cryptocurrency. Specifically, a study by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) indicated that roughly 0.01% of Bitcoin holders controlled 27% of the currency. This highlights a significant concentration of wealth within the Bitcoin ecosystem. “… I had previously believed BTC could work… But as Bill pointed out so often, the ETF’s ( and now company after company treasuries ) will run the original ideas into the ground..
Looking for investment ideas? The money will flow like water….
The MASC program represents the greatest shift towards an unmanned fleet the U.S. Navy has seen in several years and will likely grow in scale and scope as further requirements are refined with prospective manufacturers.
No 10-year design cycles. No studies. No exquisite, over-spec’d platforms. Just clear operational need – containerized combat payloads delivered fast – and a willingness to buy modular, commercial, and autonomous vessels that meet it.
This is being done under Other Transaction Authority (OTA) – meaning the Navy can move fast, partner creatively, and buy from companies that can’t comply with traditional bureaucratic hurdles.
For those of us pushing for acquisition reform, distributed lethality, and a more resilient industrial base – this is now a flagship program for the entire Pentagon.
https://x.com/AustinEGray/status/1951289494537380281
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2025/07/u-s-navy-sets-sights-on-fleet-wide-family-of-unmanned-ships/
Nasdaq…HOGS….I warned you HOGS…Who listened…???? Your Sensei was spot on again…Sell you HOGS sell…Plan you trade, trade your plan. DON’T BE A HOG
🙌 Well done and your warning did not fall on deaf ears.
Extreme weakness in chemicals;
Eastman
Dow Inc
Westlake
Huntsman
Celanese
Chemours
Lyondell-Basell
Noticing a pattern with earnings; company beats slightly or comes in slightly under expectations and shares get destroyed.
Eastman Chemical off 20%
Fluor Corp off 31%
https://billcaradotcom.substack.com/p/market-malaise-unpacking-this-mornings
https://billcaradotcom.substack.com/p/strong-quarter-weak-confidence-navigating
https://billcaradotcom.substack.com/p/safeguarding-americas-financial-integrity
Novo Nordisk P/E 12. Amazing value here, I think.
I agree
Took profits in the Canadian energy names, rolled into Baxter International and Novo Nordisk on pretty sharp sell-off in the shares. Bottom fishing, I know.
There are no coincidences?
“On July 28, 2025, Goldman Sachs withdrew its long Comex-LME spread trade recommendation, citing the possibility of the Trump administration striking copper-supply deals that could mitigate the impact of the tariffs on U.S. pricing.”
The note was published by Bloomberg Law an unusual source.
Two days later, Trump exempted refined copper from tariffs.
Microsoft grew by $345 billion before the market opens today.
https://billcara.com/help-you-invest/microsoft-msft-grows-345-billion-before-the-market-opens-this-morning/
Societe Generale, posted very good results today. They are introducing interim dividends and announcing EUR 1B share buyback program.
It is by far my biggest position (I worked there for many years). Share price is up more than 150% this year.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GLE.PA/
“Trump tears into Powell as Fed hold rates but says ‘I hear’ cut coming in September”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-tears-into-powell-as-fed-hold-rates-but-says-i-hear-cut-coming-in-september-182124005.html
I really don’t know how much more of this stuff- coming from Trump- I can take.
President Donald Trump has recently made several public statements downplaying inflation in the U.S.—including assertions that there is “no inflation” and that gas prices have dropped to $1.99 per gallon “across the country.” An examination of the latest economic data and market realities shows these claims are not just misleading—they are factually false and contradicted by reliable statistics and widespread experience.
The Average Gas Prices (July 2025): The national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline in July 2025 was between $3.12 and $3.16 not the $1.99 touted by Trump.
Trump’s repeated claim of “$1.99 gas all over the country” is blatantly untrue. As of this month, only a single gas station in rural Texas offered $1.99 per gallon—and this was a limited-time disaster relief discount, not a norm for consumers even there.
Prices have continued to edge higher in key categories like food, autos, and energy but it has not “ended” or been “defeated.”
Core prices—especially in essential goods like housing, property taxes, insurance, groceries, automobiles, and utility bills—remain elevated or continue to rise, squeezing household budgets further.
Trump’s statements such as “No Inflation! Let people buy, and refinance, their homes!” simply do not reflect the reality of millions struggling with housing and cost-of-living pressures. Housing alone are up massively over the past 5 years not to mention the property taxes that get jacked up as a result.
U.S. consumers continue to experience elevated prices for everyday necessities, and gas prices—though off their highs—have not reached his claimed levels in any widespread fashion. Such statements can be fact-checked in moments by referencing government and industry data, which show that inflation still persists and that the proclaimed drop in fuel costs is an illusion, not reality.
Totally agree…. https://youtu.be/XsuLzSRYlV4?si=qiGsYv0vXIkafu6c
Tariffs to exclude finished products; copper futures off 18%; I’ve never seen one man with the ability to roil markets as much as he does.
HBM FCX RIO BHP SCCO off as much as 10%
Did Starbucks Beat Expectations?
The Starbucks Q3 earnings report is out. The Bloomberg TV chyron flashed the breaking news that Starbucks’ same-store sales exceeded expectations. They did not.
Investors must stop getting their news from TV. When earnings reports are filed, the company issues a news release of the facts it reported to the SEC. Despite Bloomberg’s chyron, the facts tell a different story:
So, China performed well, but company wide, there was no truth that comps “exceeded expectations.” It’s a slight miss globally and a notable underperformance in the US.
Moreover, while the Y/Y picture showed a +3.8% modest growth in revenue, overall EPS dropped about 46.5%. Operating margins dropped from 16.7% a year ago to this quarter’s 10.0%. And cash flow YTD dropped -26% from $4.56B to $3.37B,
Anybody except maybe Bloomberg and CNBC can see that Starbucks did not perform well. I view Starbucks as one of the Global Best 100 watchlist companies, but the stock (SBUX) is a different matter. It’s been on my Preferred List for a while — as in Prefer to Avoid.
The new Mag-8 includes Palantir, but do investors understand this company?
https://billcara.com/help-you-invest/embedded-intelligence-the-case-for-and-against-palantir/
This is a serious issue for investors as well as for global society.
Novo Nordisk (NVO) off 22% today; I don’t have a grasp on all the issues.
No position.
Nice parabolic back to the 61.8// Should be a nice bounce once it finds its area.
goldbug58
This is earnings season. Don’t be misled by narratives. Get the facts!
https://billcara.com/help-you-invest/critical-thinking-in-the-age-of-deceit/
Thank you to those who have joined me on Substack. We’re growing even faster than the US debt, as the graphic below shows. I think we’re up to 18 subscribers!
Ah, think of it as starting late in life. It’s all good.
billcaradotcom.substack.com Take a moment to subscribe; it’s free.
Substack will soon become the publisher of this website, as well as a premium newsletter (or two), and my weekly Navigator reports, and all my eBooks that I am revising for 2025 editions.