David Rosenberg: BLS has overstated between 800k and 1 million job growth YOY and has overstated income by 650 billion. 50% of April job growth is from the Birth Death model. Start at 39.40min
Employment Numbers Mislead “The QCEW report says in the 11-month ended last December, the average monthly payroll growth was +130K, not the +230K claimed by the NFP reports”
I trust David Rosenberg and thank him for publishing this report.
jimg
May 8, 2024 2:46 pm
#39888
March 2024: “Terraform completes the end to end demo, successfully producing fossil carbon free pipeline grade natural gas from sunlight and air. We also achieved green hydrogen at <$2.50/kg-H2 and DAC CO2 at <$250/T-CO2, two incredible milestones.”
Belgium’s ports drowning under glut of Chinese electric cars: ‘Some are parked here for a year, sometimes more’ Due to China’s overcapacity in production – – the ports of Antwerp and Zeebrugge are inundated.
How car bans and heat pump rules drive voters to the far right Studies show that as energy prices rise, so do right-wing movements against green policies “What’s happening as we accelerate the pace of the transition is we’re now starting to get into sectors that inevitably touch on people’s lives,” https://archive.is/OdoCP#selection-525.0-529.90
The Kentucky Derby will take place at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, tomorrow, marking the 150th “Run for the Roses.” The race carries a record purse this year of $5M—$2M more than last year—with tomorrow’s winner taking home $3.1M. The runner-up will receive $1M and third-place $500K. Coverage begins at 2:30 pm ET on NBC, with Derby post time at 6:57 pm ET.
The oldest continuous sporting event in America, the Derby features 3-year-old thoroughbred horses born in the Northern Hemisphere racing a 1.25-mile track. This year’s top contenders include Fierceness (5-2 odds as of this writing), who is coming off a win at the Florida Derby, and Sierra Leone (3-1), both hailing from Kentucky. However, the race is known for upsets: A favorite hasn’t won since 2018, and Rich Strike won in 2022 with 80-1 odds. (How are odds calculated?)
The Derby serves as the first leg in horse racing’s Triple Crown series. Preceding the Derby this evening is the Kentucky Oaks (5:51 pm ET), showcasing 3-year-old fillies or young female horses. See Derby predictions here.
Last edited 5 days ago by Bill Cara
jimg
May 1, 2024 4:14 pm
#39817
Bob Elliott:
The fate of the US long end will drive nearly every financial asset and with the Fed/Treasury put struck well below today’s levels, it’s not looking good ahead.
I commented today about living wages. It got me to think that many of us are complacent when the nation is undergoing enormous stress. As I see it, America is grappling with issues on Main Street that could spill over to Wall Street. Critical-thinking investors should monitor the surge in share buy-backs and dividend payouts, corporate actions that primarily benefit wealthy shareholders and can contribute to more income inequality. This, in turn, can impact overall economic stability, potentially leading to social unrest. What is the underlying problem? There has been a noticeable shift in the employment market, with accurate data revealing a decline in full-time positions replaced by part-time jobs offering basic health insurance benefits. Unlike in many other countries, the US employment situation is exacerbated by the absence of universally mandated health insurance, forcing many people into unacceptable, poverty-level jobs. That is not the only problem. These low-paying jobs are now impacted by high inflation. In many cities, residential real estate poses challenges with excessive prices and soaring rents. The average wage earner can no longer afford to buy a home, and renting has also become a problem. Resolving these issues takes time, especially since many homeowners have no mortgages or low-cost mortgages and large capital gains, thus creating little incentive to sell or reduce rents. Nevertheless, the oversupply in many urban markets is becoming increasingly problematic and may worsen unless prices and rents are adjusted accordingly. Unfortunately, I fear this conflict could lead to dire consequences, as individuals struggling to find sustainable employment will increasingly resort to desperate measures like theft of food and gasoline or drug dealing to survive. Simultaneously, student and worker protests are gaining momentum nationwide, reflecting growing discontent with ‘the system.’ Consequently, there’s a heightened risk for storekeepers and others in authority, like police officers, judges, and politicians, to become targets of crime. Any of us could be next. Wall Street’s banking system is also under pressure. While Wall Street would have us think otherwise, the financial markets are grappling with the looming need to write off trillions of dollars in commercial real estate, bank, and credit card loans. This development could have profound implications for overall financial market stability. Is it any wonder that polls for the upcoming federal election favor a man I call “corrupt and despicable”? I am not surprised. The incumbent president, too, has failed on many levels. This election does not appear to offer a solution to America’s problems on Main Street or Wall Street.
Chris Whalen recently commented on what is happening in New York city
It costs $2,000/sq.ft. to build in New York city vs.$300/sq.ft. in Westchester County Developers have left to go to the south. Landlords cannot recoup the costs of renovating apartments as a result of a 2019 law, so they are taking them off the market
“We submit that the Biden administration’s decision to impose financial sanctions on Russia after its February 2022 invasion of Ukraine – call it ‘theft of sovereign assets’ if you prefer – will turn out to be one of the most damaging self-inflicted wounds in the history of North American geopolitics and global economics”
Single-stock ETFs prove that Wall Street’s argument that an ETF is required for diversification purposes is fallacious. This is just another deception from Humongous Bank & Broker (HB&B) to encourage its clients to trade against their vast technology, financial, and human resources.
goldbug58
April 29, 2024 1:13 am
#39779
Not that it matters but I decided I’m not casting a vote this November. Went for Trump in 2017. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Biden, seriously? Sadly, the man needs to be in assisted living at this point. This is the best we can come up with in America today? At least give us a President the world might at least respect.
CNN’s Kaitlan Collins interviewed Bill Barr a few days ago, surprised that despite all Barr has said about Trump and Trump said about him — all of which are sleazy — he will vote for Trump. He would never vote for a Democrat, he said, but rather than not vote, he had to stand up to the socialist policies of Biden. No matter what you think of Bill Barr, he was articulate in that CNN interview. As much as I believe Trump is a totally corrupt and despicable human being, I agree that Biden presents as big a problem to democracy in America. Sadly, voters cannot win in the upcoming federal election.
CNN’s latest poll shows Trump well ahead of Biden. If that gap continues, I anticipate a change in the selected candidate at the Democrat National Convention. Although Gavin Newsom may not be any better than Joe Biden, he could be the one chosen. Initially, I considered Michelle Obama, and that is still a possibility, but I believe she would prefer a private life.
My decade was the 1980s and we are a far cry from the 80s. America remains in a dangerous position; 530 representatives for a population of 330 million; big $$$ has far too many politicians in their pockets; 00s of billions being shipped overseas; debt overload; inflation; many homeless; seniors choosing between paying bills or buying food; not pretty. Not even sure how we got here.
There are cycles in life where the weirdness of the times cannot be comprehended. This is one of those times.
Fear-mongers say that life will get worse. Many of us disagree. I say it will only get better.
I have always been an optimist through thick and thin because history taught me a lesson. There have been times when I, too, thought life had reached a low point and would worsen, but it always got better.
There will be a market crash in the next 18-24 months that will cause great hardship. After that, life will get better.
Nandan Nilekani’s vision for the “Finternet” is to enable individuals to transfer any financial asset, in any amount, at any time, to anyone, anywhere in the world—cheaply, securely, and near-instantaneously.
DTCC: Effective April 30, 2024, as part of the annual renewal of the line-of-credit facility, DTC will implement the following changes to modify collateral value for certain securities, which may affect the value of positions applied to the Collateral Monitor:
No collateral value will be given for any ETF or other investment vehicle that includes Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency as an underlying investment, hence will be subject to a 100% haircut.
“Most financial institutions will not allow civilians to directly buy single pool MBS; and even if available, I would advise against their purchase. To resolve this problem, I created a listed ETF strategy that only invests in newly issued MBS bonds. Presently this strategy offers a dividend and yield of about 5.95%, the only high-grade credit product that yields more than three-month T-bills”
Interesting note seen on X. It took the US 220 years to reach $11 Trillion in debt (1789-2009). In the past four years alone, they have added $11 Trillion, currently sitting close to $35 Trillion.
The US is done. When government no longer serves the people, it’s time to replace the government. That goes for all governments. Venezuela should never have happened. Looks like it could be our turn next. No one will fix this. No one.
goldbug58
April 23, 2024 4:37 pm
#39721
Maple Leafs dumped Boston in Game 2, Thank you Toronto.
However…. Wholesale electricity rates in the regional market to which Ohio belongs fell “considerably” from 2022 to 2023 due to decreasing costs for natural gas and other fuels, Sarah Parrot, Ohio federal energy advocate, said at the April 3 meeting. It was the largest annual percent decrease since 2009, she said. https://fox8.com/news/firstenergy-customers-significant-rate-drop-coming/
David Rosenberg:
BLS has overstated between 800k and 1 million job growth YOY and has overstated income by 650 billion.
50% of April job growth is from the Birth Death model.
Start at 39.40min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bl6SqcNOMfQ
Employment Numbers Mislead
“The QCEW report says in the 11-month ended last December, the average monthly payroll growth was +130K, not the +230K claimed by the NFP reports”
https://archive.is/2qTgn
“In fact, this has been verified by the economists at the Philadelphia Federal Reserve”
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/frbp/assets/surveys-and-data/benchmark-revisions/2023/early-benchmark-2023-q3-report.pdf?la=en
I trust David Rosenberg and thank him for publishing this report.
March 2024: “Terraform completes the end to end demo, successfully producing fossil carbon free pipeline grade natural gas from sunlight and air. We also achieved green hydrogen at <$2.50/kg-H2 and DAC CO2 at <$250/T-CO2, two incredible milestones.”
https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2024/04/casey-handmer-terraform-industries-and.html
Belgium’s ports drowning under glut of Chinese electric cars: ‘Some are parked here for a year, sometimes more’
Due to China’s overcapacity in production – – the ports of Antwerp and Zeebrugge are inundated.
https://archive.is/DJKcw#selection-1741.0-1745.171
Are the batteries disengaged?
‘ChatGPT for CRISPR’ creates new gene-editing tools
Some of the AI-designed gene editors could be more versatile than those found in nature.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-01243-w
Net zero not going too well
How car bans and heat pump rules drive voters to the far right
Studies show that as energy prices rise, so do right-wing movements against green policies
“What’s happening as we accelerate the pace of the transition is we’re now starting to get into sectors that inevitably touch on people’s lives,”
https://archive.is/OdoCP#selection-525.0-529.90
How climate policies are becoming focus for far-right attacks in Germany
Politicians fear perceived costs of green transition are driving poor and rural voters to parties such as AfD
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/30/how-climate-policies-are-becoming-focus-for-far-right-attacks-in-germany
Tough loss for the Leafs Saturday night. Very tightly fought series, all close games. To lose it in OT 2-1 was a heart breaker.
Toronto stays alive with a 2-1 win over Boston last night, Series tied 3-3.
Jared Bernstein is an American economist who is the chair of the United States Council of Economic Advisers
This a clip from award-winning documentary “Finding the money” (https://findingmoneyfilm.com/)
https://twitter.com/FindingMoneyDoc/status/1786050601236779078
Finding the Money: Can a film about modern monetary theory change our economic debates?
https://www.fresheconomicthinking.com/p/finding-the-money-can-a-film-about
Awaiting the Kentucky Derby.
1440 tells us all we need to know:
Bob Elliott:
The fate of the US long end will drive nearly every financial asset and with the Fed/Treasury put struck well below today’s levels, it’s not looking good ahead.
Since the US 10yr started rising sharply to start the quarter, nearly all other assets have been driven by its move.
Twitter thread:
https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimited/status/1785628850640052697
Recommended videos.
Watching these videos might be a good use of time as we await the FOMC decision and report this afternoon.
Ray Dalio’s Warning On Money: The Upcoming Financial Crisis, Chaos, The Next Big Market Crash!
Why JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon Is Skeptical of an Economic Soft Landing
California’s Effort to Strangle AI
https://hyperdimensional.substack.com/p/californias-effort-to-strangle-ai
https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=202320240SB1047
I commented today about living wages. It got me to think that many of us are complacent when the nation is undergoing enormous stress.
As I see it, America is grappling with issues on Main Street that could spill over to Wall Street. Critical-thinking investors should monitor the surge in share buy-backs and dividend payouts, corporate actions that primarily benefit wealthy shareholders and can contribute to more income inequality. This, in turn, can impact overall economic stability, potentially leading to social unrest.
What is the underlying problem? There has been a noticeable shift in the employment market, with accurate data revealing a decline in full-time positions replaced by part-time jobs offering basic health insurance benefits. Unlike in many other countries, the US employment situation is exacerbated by the absence of universally mandated health insurance, forcing many people into unacceptable, poverty-level jobs. That is not the only problem. These low-paying jobs are now impacted by high inflation.
In many cities, residential real estate poses challenges with excessive prices and soaring rents. The average wage earner can no longer afford to buy a home, and renting has also become a problem. Resolving these issues takes time, especially since many homeowners have no mortgages or low-cost mortgages and large capital gains, thus creating little incentive to sell or reduce rents. Nevertheless, the oversupply in many urban markets is becoming increasingly problematic and may worsen unless prices and rents are adjusted accordingly.
Unfortunately, I fear this conflict could lead to dire consequences, as individuals struggling to find sustainable employment will increasingly resort to desperate measures like theft of food and gasoline or drug dealing to survive.
Simultaneously, student and worker protests are gaining momentum nationwide, reflecting growing discontent with ‘the system.’ Consequently, there’s a heightened risk for storekeepers and others in authority, like police officers, judges, and politicians, to become targets of crime. Any of us could be next.
Wall Street’s banking system is also under pressure. While Wall Street would have us think otherwise, the financial markets are grappling with the looming need to write off trillions of dollars in commercial real estate, bank, and credit card loans. This development could have profound implications for overall financial market stability.
Is it any wonder that polls for the upcoming federal election favor a man I call “corrupt and despicable”? I am not surprised. The incumbent president, too, has failed on many levels.
This election does not appear to offer a solution to America’s problems on Main Street or Wall Street.
Chris Whalen recently commented on what is happening in New York city
It costs $2,000/sq.ft. to build in New York city vs.$300/sq.ft. in Westchester County Developers have left to go to the south. Landlords cannot recoup the costs of renovating apartments as a result of a 2019 law, so they are taking them off the market
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NEWvXmMBfx8
The building emissions regulations that impose heavy fines will financially ruin the middle class in New York city
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2022-10-28-nyc-hates-its-middle-class-homeowners
More self destruction
NYC’s once-bustling Flatiron District now a wasteland of empty storefronts as rampant shoplifting wreaks havoc on iconic nabe
https://nypost.com/2024/04/29/us-news/once-bustling-nyc-flatiron-district-struggles-with-empty-stores-theft/
Mr. Bill,
I see some similarities with Canadian economy too. Is cutting rates for BoC at June meeting too early?
Biden just eased sanctions on at least 10 Russian banks, including the Russian Central Bank on everything related to energy
https://ofac.treasury.gov/media/932846/download?inline
“We submit that the Biden administration’s decision to impose financial sanctions on Russia after its February 2022 invasion of Ukraine – call it ‘theft of sovereign assets’ if you prefer – will turn out to be one of the most damaging self-inflicted wounds in the history of North American geopolitics and global economics”
https://www.pricevaluepartners.com/a-dangerous-consensus/
Levered Single Stock ETFs On NVDA – Crack Cocaine For The Financial Masses And What This Means For The Stock Market
https://www.longtailalpha.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/LTA-Thinking-Levered-Single-Stocks-ETFs-on-NVDA.pdf
Single-stock ETFs prove that Wall Street’s argument that an ETF is required for diversification purposes is fallacious. This is just another deception from Humongous Bank & Broker (HB&B) to encourage its clients to trade against their vast technology, financial, and human resources.
Not that it matters but I decided I’m not casting a vote this November. Went for Trump in 2017. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Biden, seriously? Sadly, the man needs to be in assisted living at this point. This is the best we can come up with in America today? At least give us a President the world might at least respect.
CNN’s Kaitlan Collins interviewed Bill Barr a few days ago, surprised that despite all Barr has said about Trump and Trump said about him — all of which are sleazy — he will vote for Trump. He would never vote for a Democrat, he said, but rather than not vote, he had to stand up to the socialist policies of Biden. No matter what you think of Bill Barr, he was articulate in that CNN interview. As much as I believe Trump is a totally corrupt and despicable human being, I agree that Biden presents as big a problem to democracy in America. Sadly, voters cannot win in the upcoming federal election.
CNN’s latest poll shows Trump well ahead of Biden. If that gap continues, I anticipate a change in the selected candidate at the Democrat National Convention. Although Gavin Newsom may not be any better than Joe Biden, he could be the one chosen. Initially, I considered Michelle Obama, and that is still a possibility, but I believe she would prefer a private life.
My decade was the 1980s and we are a far cry from the 80s. America remains in a dangerous position; 530 representatives for a population of 330 million; big $$$ has far too many politicians in their pockets; 00s of billions being shipped overseas; debt overload; inflation; many homeless; seniors choosing between paying bills or buying food; not pretty. Not even sure how we got here.
There are cycles in life where the weirdness of the times cannot be comprehended. This is one of those times.
Fear-mongers say that life will get worse. Many of us disagree. I say it will only get better.
I have always been an optimist through thick and thin because history taught me a lesson. There have been times when I, too, thought life had reached a low point and would worsen, but it always got better.
There will be a market crash in the next 18-24 months that will cause great hardship. After that, life will get better.
Nandan Nilekani’s vision for the “Finternet” is to enable individuals to transfer any financial asset, in any amount, at any time, to anyone, anywhere in the world—cheaply, securely, and near-instantaneously.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1cNYxT6yWvWurrXCEeXlWPpJ9AXFv1QaS/view
DTCC:
Effective April 30, 2024, as part of the annual renewal of the line-of-credit facility, DTC will implement the following changes to modify collateral value for certain securities, which may affect the value of positions applied to the Collateral Monitor:
No collateral value will be given for any ETF or other investment vehicle that includes Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency as an underlying investment, hence will be subject to a 100% haircut.
https://www.dtcc.com/-/media/Files/pdf/2024/4/26/B20002-24.pdf
“Most financial institutions will not allow civilians to directly buy single pool MBS; and even if available, I would advise against their purchase. To resolve this problem, I created a listed ETF strategy that only invests in newly issued MBS bonds. Presently this strategy offers a dividend and yield of about 5.95%, the only high-grade credit product that yields more than three-month T-bills”
https://www.convexitymaven.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Convexity-Maven-Bedtime-for-Bonds.pdf
See more:
““A New Issue MBS Strategy”
https://www.convexitymaven.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Convexity-Maven-MBS-Strategy.pdf
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-m7p_8jSa9Y
“Can AI rewrite our human genome? “Today, we announce the successful editing of DNA in human cells with gene editors fully designed with AI.”
Editing the Human Genome with AI
https://www.profluent.bio/blog/editing-the-human-genome-with-ai
NYT: https://archive.is/Rt3PH#selection-449.0-453.121
Interesting note seen on X. It took the US 220 years to reach $11 Trillion in debt (1789-2009). In the past four years alone, they have added $11 Trillion, currently sitting close to $35 Trillion.
The US is done. When government no longer serves the people, it’s time to replace the government. That goes for all governments. Venezuela should never have happened. Looks like it could be our turn next. No one will fix this. No one.
Maple Leafs dumped Boston in Game 2, Thank you Toronto.
My team is sick. It’s always about next year.
Energy prices soar almost 30 percent under Biden — 13 times faster than previous 7 years: analysis
https://nypost.com/2024/04/12/us-news/electricity-costs-soar-under-biden-administrationenergy-prices-soar-under-biden-administration/
Electricity prices are shocking the lawmakers who voted for them
A cadre of coastal Democrats is pushing to repeal a fee that would drive up utility bills for some middle- and high-income customers. Lawmakers ordered it up two years ago in part to cover the costs of adapting to climate change.
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/california-climate/2024/01/30/electricity-prices-are-shocking-the-lawmakers-who-voted-for-them-00138714
200 Ways the Biden Administration and Democrats Have Made it Harder to Produce Oil & Gas
https://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/regulation/200-ways-the-biden-administration-and-democrats-have-made-it-harder-to-produce-oil-gas/
However….
Wholesale electricity rates in the regional market to which Ohio belongs fell “considerably” from 2022 to 2023 due to decreasing costs for natural gas and other fuels, Sarah Parrot, Ohio federal energy advocate, said at the April 3 meeting. It was the largest annual percent decrease since 2009, she said.
https://fox8.com/news/firstenergy-customers-significant-rate-drop-coming/
The problem was going to happen anyway after Covid-19. Biden just made it worse, starting on Day One as POTUS.