Nobody can go into the weekend short the market because nobody knows if we wake up tomorrow to a Truth Social comment that Xi Jinping picked up the phone. More than 90% of the rally off the April lows came from only four sessions: the first from the pause of the blanket reciprocal tariffs, the second from the China reprieve, the third from the EU reprieve, and the fourth from the recent trade court ruling. It’s called investing around headlines.
This is a day trader’s market, which is another way of saying that the pro traders at your favorite Humongous Bank & Broker (HB&B) are legally taking money from your accounts.
I’ve found, personally, that just trading One different stock daily works best… Yes, I’ll make more than one trade per day, but not until I’ve sold one, then, started another if things are good…it can be the same stock, or an entirely different one The issue is, imo, you absolutely have to know the companies you are trading – not just a glance at charts and statistics…it has to be a deep understanding of that company’s history, inside and out.. I believe that’s why one of Bills trader friends said it would take 10 years of experience to have a grasp on trading ….Now, that’s for Trading…issues like TIL at $ 12 should be a hold for the time to tell….yet, you still Need to Know it’s history as well…so when SMMT had a bad news report, it was instantly a ‘ Sell ‘ signal for TIL Then, wait till the dust settles Exactly the opposite for CLF Friday pm. when Trump announced the 50% tarrifs on imported steel Regardless of Monday, CLF was a screaming ‘ Buy ‘ for 1 1/2 hours
My Thanks as well. Perhaps we can get the transcript and discuss some of these points. From a Politics viewpoint, I do think that this type of person is what our Founding Fathers Hoped would become President.
Someone Older, Experienced in the World & with enough Money that they put the country before themselves, i.e., they’re in “Give Back” mode
Kyle, we all need it because our perceptions are so turned by narratives today, and we need the perspective that a person like Dimon can share. Hopefully, we get to discuss it here.
The one drawback is that any President has stakeholders (voters and lobbyists) to satisfy. Given that Jamie Dimon’s JP Morgan Chase Bank, the world’s largest, must satisfy stakeholders of all stripes, his words have gravitas. Perhaps we need to double the number of senators (at a lower cost each) so that more of them will speak their minds instead of reciting their party narratives.
In a news release, Gap said new 30% duties on imports from China and a 10% levy on imports from most other countries will cost the company between $250 million and $300 million without mitigation efforts. For now, it’s leaving that impact out of its guidance.
jimg
May 30, 2025 8:23 am
#46874
Mike Green: Tariffs and AI will be huge deflationary forces rolling through the economy
Platinum open interest is up 16k lots in 8 sessions.
OI is near an all-time high. Nine years of range compression plus rising volume could ignite a scramble for liquidity in a very thin market. The narrative is really just one word: China. Gold is up 6× vs. XPT since the bottom in 2008. Anglo is going to spin off its XPT biz (AMPLATS) next week.
“I’m going to destroy the European economy with 50% tariffs (whispers to himself…that will also destroy the US economy)… Just kidding!”
When does this nonsense stop? If Trump weren’t President, his associates would have him committed. He’s abusing the office, and in response, the international world leaders are making trade and military agreements that exclude the US.
Despite what some Trumpers may choose to believe, my reports are non-partisan. That in itself is an ironic statement because I happen to be right-of-center conservative, probably more so than many of my critics.
Not in my reports, but in my comments on this website and in personal communications, I have always referred to Trump as “despicable” and “criminal.” At this point, I believe he is unwell and unfit to be the President. Whether some of you accept this perspective or not, it’s hard to argue that increasing numbers of Americans as well as hundreds of millions of observers worldwide are in agreement.
How anybody could say that Trump’s West Point commencement speech yesterday was that of a fit and proper commander-in-chief would be shocking except that Trumpers don’t seem to care. However, everybody should care that America is sliding into bankruptcy and Trump’s policies, while possibly being beneficial in a decade or so, are worsening the crisis in the short-term.
As the saying goes, “We’ll all be dead someday.” It’s today that’s important.
Most folks do not understand that journalists are highly educated professionals with a sincere desire to participate in the fourth branch of our US democracy. Journalists with major media organizations will be fired for violating journalistic codes of ethics.
Moderate Republicans have for decades repeated the false talking point of the so-called ”liberal” media. Define “liberal” as highly intelligent and informed professionals speaking truth to power and telling you what you do not want to hear, but need to hear.
If someone is listening to internet personalities who are pedaling fear and hate to generate maximum clicks for cash, well, it speaks for itself.
Themes common to codes of journalistic standards include:
1) Professional journalists are expected to be as accurate as possible given the time allotted for story preparation and the space available, and to seek reliable sources.
2) Properly using their sources and using accurate quoting and use of words from interview or conversation.
3) Events with a single eyewitness are reported with attribution. Events with two or more independent eyewitnesses may be reported as fact. Controversial facts are reported with attribution.
4) Independent fact-checking by another employee of the publisher is desirable.
5) ETC.
King Trump is the opposite. Vague references like: A lot of people are saying …Everybody’s talking about it. I’ve heard that …A lot of people tell me …
Vague Adjectives: amazing / beautiful / best / big league / brilliant / elegant / fabulous / fantastic / fine / good / great / happy / honest / incredible / nice / outstanding / phenomenal / powerful / sophisticated / special / strong / successful / top / tremendous / unbelievable/ boring / complete and total / crooked / disgusting / dishonest / dopey / dumb / goofy / horrible / interesting* / not good / obsolete / out of control / overrated / pathetic / ridiculous / rude / sad / scary / stupid / terrible / unfair / weak / worst.
Joseph Goebbels: “Make the lie big, make it simple, keep saying it, and eventually they will believe it.”
Apparently, many in the US don’t know history and thus, perhaps, we are all doomed to repeat it.
Since I will be releasing the Navigator Report only to subscribers, and I’m spending less time commenting here, I decided to publish the weekly Briefing Doc and Podcast on this website. That way, for this week, 676 pages can be reviewed with 5 minutes of reading and 23 minutes listening to cover what I see as important in the global financial markets.
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says markets are too complacent on tariffs, expects S&P 500 earnings growth to collapse.
Dimon, the veteran CEO and chairman of the biggest U.S. bank by assets, explained his worldview during his bank’s annual investor day meeting in New York. He said he believes the risks of higher inflation and even stagflation aren’t properly represented by stock market values, which have staged a comeback from lows in April.
“We have huge deficits; we have what I consider almost complacent central banks,” Dimon said. “You all think they can manage all this. I don’t think they can,” he said.
“My own view is people feel pretty good because you haven’t seen effective tariffs,” Dimon said. “The market came down 10%, [it’s] back up 10%. That’s an extraordinary amount of complacency.”
Dimon said Monday that he believed Wall Street earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies, which have already declined in the first weeks of Trump’s trade policies, will fall further as companies pull or lower guidance amid the uncertainty.
I hope this community follows NYUGrad at Substack because he does good work. I’m always pleased to see him post here.
If the economy were in better shape and making people less anxious about their jobs, and mortgage rates were dropping instead of rising, a yellow brick road would lead to these unsold houses.
Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” barely passed 215-214 in the House.
The Senate will approve, and Trump will sign it into law with the usual flourish.
Investors agree it’s big but are concerned about the beauty part. The Congressional Budget Office calculates that this bill will add $3.8 trillion to the existing $36.2 trillion Treasury debt in ten years.
Treasury yields will rise because these growing deficits and debt are real, while Trump’s “blue sky” promises of wealth-creating trade deals may never happen.
Investors are rightly focused today on the 10-year Treasury yield.
NEWP….Been a long base here, but the break happened right where it should have…Now we need to see some follow through…LFG….I’ve been patient with this one and have built a nice pile near the lows….
Bitcoin-mining company Bitdeer TechnologiesBTDR listed on the Nasdaq last month after merging with a special-purpose acquisition company, or SPAC, a blank-check company so called for its use in helping businesses access public markets with fewer strings attached. Blockchain company Chia Network recently took another step toward going public, while cloud-mining company BitFuFu and crypto cash-machine company Bitcoin Depot are working on plans to go public via SPAC mergers. Though skeptics contend that the gains in crypto and other risky sectors are likely short-lived because of the Federal Reserve’s stated determination to hold short-term interest rates at the highest level in more than a decade The Securities and Exchange Commission has been fighting to regulate most cryptocurrencies and the platforms that trade them. The regulator has sued a number of crypto companies for allegedly selling unregistered securities. Many crypto companies counter that they don’t sell or trade securities. From WSJ
A reader wrote– Anyone who pays real money for any digital token is not investing but participating in a Ponzi scheme designed by its often elusive creator, regardless of how hard it is to “create” this token or “how many” there are; I am personally shocked that any digital currency is still legal but look at our lawmakers who are wined and dined by Sam Bankman and the like.?
dave.rajog and others, pleased don’t use links to paywall services like WSJ and Seeking Alpha, etc. The WordPress platform we use for this website blocks them. Your comment then goes to a ‘pending’ file I must approve — if I even see it listed on the admin panel.
There are always implosions in the market… especially earnings season….one need not trade everyday…. Be patient and choose your battles carefully… I’ve found the best gains are buying these good companies that got wrecked …. UNH is the latest example… APP in the last cycle, etc.. I added Sarepta last week
UNH will remain on my Cara 100 (“Global Best 100 Companies”) list until more is known about the DOJ criminal complaint. Unfortunately, politicizing financial markets has put these difficult situations into the pending category when, years ago, investors would sell all positions at the hint of criminality.
In my weekly Navigator report, I cautioned against buying UNH shares until we learn more from the DOJ and the company. But from what I’ve seen so far, UNH’s intrinsic value is much higher than today’s share price. I’m not yet ready to put this company into the ‘bad’ category and remove it from the (new) Cara 100.
I have an exclusive arrangement with a company to take control of marketing this report and the billcara.com website. They are presently moving everything on my server to AWS.
As part of the agreement, I will support their day trading education platform, including writing a daily market report for day traders, starting at the end of the month. This is something new for me, but I am confident the report will meet or exceed traders’ expectations, as I have done with the Navigator report for investors. Of course, Baz22 will inform everyone if I’m up to the task.
The structure should be in place to move billcara.com from my server to AWS. We then plan to change its presentation and parts of the Navigator Report.
There will soon be announcements regarding my involvement with a new day trading education platform and writing a daily day trader’s report.
David Rosenberg provides the facts.
@EconguyRosie
This is a day trader’s market, which is another way of saying that the pro traders at your favorite Humongous Bank & Broker (HB&B) are legally taking money from your accounts.
I’ve found, personally, that just trading One different stock daily works best… Yes, I’ll make more than one trade per day, but not until I’ve sold one, then, started another if things are good…it can be the same stock, or an entirely different one
The issue is, imo, you absolutely have to know the companies you are trading – not just a glance at charts and statistics…it has to be a deep understanding of that company’s history, inside and out..
I believe that’s why one of Bills trader friends said it would take 10 years of experience to have a grasp on trading
….Now, that’s for Trading…issues like TIL at $ 12 should be a hold for the time to tell….yet, you still Need to Know it’s history as well…so when SMMT had a bad news report, it was instantly a ‘ Sell ‘ signal for TIL
Then, wait till the dust settles
Exactly the opposite for CLF Friday pm. when Trump announced the 50% tarrifs on imported steel
Regardless of Monday, CLF was a screaming ‘ Buy ‘ for 1 1/2 hours
Hudbay Minerals staff evacuate Flin Flon, Man., due to wildfires
https://www.thestar.com/business/hudbay-minerals-staff-evacuate-flin-flon-man-due-to-wildfires/article_23ed0c1b-778e-5855-91e3-5ebb0b2e69fd.html
Jamie Dimon: Financial Leadership Par Excellence at the Reagan Economic Forum.
Google this to get the full talk. Just brilliant. I don’t recall anything better or more timely, possibly ever.
CNBC has snippets, but will likely produce the entire piece at once. Get it and save it.
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2025/05/30/jpmorgan-ceo-we-shouldnt-be-stockpiling-bitcoin-we-should-be-stockpiling-bullets.html
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2025/05/30/jpmorgan-ceo-jamie-dimon-china-is-a-potential-adversary-but-i-worry-about-us-the-enemy-within.html
Agree Completely. That was Excellent. He was being (somewhat) polite for the audience, BUT it seemed like he was ready to unload in a private meeting.
Full interview (behind paywall):
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2025/05/30/pro-watch-cnbcas-full-interview-with-jpmorgan-ceo-jamie-dimon.html
Here it is (no paywall) from the Reagan Foundation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1NHLha3jG2g
Thank you, Kieran.
Can anybody get us a transcript?
My Thanks as well. Perhaps we can get the transcript and discuss some of these points. From a Politics viewpoint, I do think that this type of person is what our Founding Fathers Hoped would become President.
Someone Older, Experienced in the World & with enough Money that they put the country before themselves, i.e., they’re in “Give Back” mode
Kyle, we all need it because our perceptions are so turned by narratives today, and we need the perspective that a person like Dimon can share. Hopefully, we get to discuss it here.
The one drawback is that any President has stakeholders (voters and lobbyists) to satisfy. Given that Jamie Dimon’s JP Morgan Chase Bank, the world’s largest, must satisfy stakeholders of all stripes, his words have gravitas. Perhaps we need to double the number of senators (at a lower cost each) so that more of them will speak their minds instead of reciting their party narratives.
The cost of Trump’s trade wars hits Gap hard.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/29/gap-earnings-q1-2025.html
Mike Green: Tariffs and AI will be huge deflationary forces rolling through the economy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8fJI2dQUZ64
Definitely starting NTLA…No hospitalization, enzymes improving correctly… https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/hc-wainwright-maintains-30-target-on-intellia-stock-postsafety-update-93CH-4070120
In the Trading Community ( I didn’t post here ) I decided to wait on NTLA…
Might be time to close your shorts.
US court blocks Trump’s sweeping tariffs, citing overreach of authority | Reuters
Nvidia (NVDA) report
Analyzed by Grok.
https://billcara.com/help-you-invest/nvidia-nvda-q1-fy2026-earnings-report/
Platinum open interest is up 16k lots in 8 sessions.
OI is near an all-time high. Nine years of range compression plus rising volume could ignite a scramble for liquidity in a very thin market. The narrative is really just one word: China. Gold is up 6× vs. XPT since the bottom in 2008. Anglo is going to spin off its XPT biz (AMPLATS) next week.
BBG: https://archive.is/LaXgD
Today can be explained in one sentence.
“I’m going to destroy the European economy with 50% tariffs (whispers to himself…that will also destroy the US economy)… Just kidding!”
When does this nonsense stop? If Trump weren’t President, his associates would have him committed. He’s abusing the office, and in response, the international world leaders are making trade and military agreements that exclude the US.
My favorite response from AI to date.
“Our apologies, your request is as expansive as the galaxy itself. Could you make it more terrestrial for us?”
I am pushing the limits.
A focus on the fiscal crisis of America and why it’s getting worse.
https://billcara.com/help-you-invest/trump-policies-and-the-fiscal-crisis-in-america-today/
Despite what some Trumpers may choose to believe, my reports are non-partisan. That in itself is an ironic statement because I happen to be right-of-center conservative, probably more so than many of my critics.
Not in my reports, but in my comments on this website and in personal communications, I have always referred to Trump as “despicable” and “criminal.” At this point, I believe he is unwell and unfit to be the President. Whether some of you accept this perspective or not, it’s hard to argue that increasing numbers of Americans as well as hundreds of millions of observers worldwide are in agreement.
How anybody could say that Trump’s West Point commencement speech yesterday was that of a fit and proper commander-in-chief would be shocking except that Trumpers don’t seem to care. However, everybody should care that America is sliding into bankruptcy and Trump’s policies, while possibly being beneficial in a decade or so, are worsening the crisis in the short-term.
As the saying goes, “We’ll all be dead someday.” It’s today that’s important.
Today is Memorial Day.
how much does the totalitarian journalism of the leftist dominated media influence…?… I’m thinking Greatly
Most folks do not understand that journalists are highly educated professionals with a sincere desire to participate in the fourth branch of our US democracy. Journalists with major media organizations will be fired for violating journalistic codes of ethics.
Moderate Republicans have for decades repeated the false talking point of the so-called ”liberal” media. Define “liberal” as highly intelligent and informed professionals speaking truth to power and telling you what you do not want to hear, but need to hear.
If someone is listening to internet personalities who are pedaling fear and hate to generate maximum clicks for cash, well, it speaks for itself.
Themes common to codes of journalistic standards include:
1) Professional journalists are expected to be as accurate as possible given the time allotted for story preparation and the space available, and to seek reliable sources.
2) Properly using their sources and using accurate quoting and use of words from interview or conversation.
3) Events with a single eyewitness are reported with attribution. Events with two or more independent eyewitnesses may be reported as fact. Controversial facts are reported with attribution.
4) Independent fact-checking by another employee of the publisher is desirable.
5) ETC.
King Trump is the opposite. Vague references like: A lot of people are saying …Everybody’s talking about it. I’ve heard that …A lot of people tell me …
Vague Adjectives: amazing / beautiful / best / big league / brilliant / elegant / fabulous / fantastic / fine / good / great / happy / honest / incredible / nice / outstanding / phenomenal / powerful / sophisticated / special / strong / successful / top / tremendous / unbelievable/ boring / complete and total / crooked / disgusting / dishonest / dopey / dumb / goofy / horrible / interesting* / not good / obsolete / out of control / overrated / pathetic / ridiculous / rude / sad / scary / stupid / terrible / unfair / weak / worst.
Joseph Goebbels: “Make the lie big, make it simple, keep saying it, and eventually they will believe it.”
Apparently, many in the US don’t know history and thus, perhaps, we are all doomed to repeat it.
Walter Cronkite’s final sign-off was on March 6, 1981. Journalistic integrity DIED then.
That was the END of it.
Navigator Report 20 Briefing Doc.
https://billcara.com/help-you-invest/briefing-document-navigator-report-20-review/
Since I will be releasing the Navigator Report only to subscribers, and I’m spending less time commenting here, I decided to publish the weekly Briefing Doc and Podcast on this website. That way, for this week, 676 pages can be reviewed with 5 minutes of reading and 23 minutes listening to cover what I see as important in the global financial markets.
NYUGrad on Substack
Not Your Advisor
I hope this community follows NYUGrad at Substack because he does good work. I’m always pleased to see him post here.
The Global Markets Weekly Navigator Report #20 has been published.
Here is the audio discussion. 23 minutes.
https://notebooklm.google.com/notebook/b4d48dcb-4b39-467d-b6dc-d74ffcba6965/audio
For all that have served… https://youtu.be/jhdFe3evXpk?si=po8flp7t-EJaOlMT
Dire Straits — that song is “from GOD” …
Here’s another one from Culpeper Cemetery …
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/M3TIG5wKzKY
Much appreciated…. Thank you
https://www.fool.com/investing/stock-market/market-sectors/energy/nuclear/fusion-energy/#:~:text=Currently%2C%20there%20aren't%20any,Alphabet%2C%20Eni%2C%20and%20Nucor.
A challenging US housing market.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/22/april-home-sales-real-estate.html
If the economy were in better shape and making people less anxious about their jobs, and mortgage rates were dropping instead of rising, a yellow brick road would lead to these unsold houses.
Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” barely passed 215-214 in the House.
The Senate will approve, and Trump will sign it into law with the usual flourish.
Investors agree it’s big but are concerned about the beauty part. The Congressional Budget Office calculates that this bill will add $3.8 trillion to the existing $36.2 trillion Treasury debt in ten years.
Treasury yields will rise because these growing deficits and debt are real, while Trump’s “blue sky” promises of wealth-creating trade deals may never happen.
Investors are rightly focused today on the 10-year Treasury yield.
NEWP….Been a long base here, but the break happened right where it should have…Now we need to see some follow through…LFG….I’ve been patient with this one and have built a nice pile near the lows….
Are you going to allow private equity to access your retirement funds?
https://billcara.com/help-you-invest/a-trump-executive-order-could-open-the-9-trillion-us-retirement-market-to-private-equity-is-this-what-the-public-wants-or-needs/
Bitcoin-mining company Bitdeer Technologies BTDR listed on the Nasdaq last month after merging with a special-purpose acquisition company, or SPAC, a blank-check company so called for its use in helping businesses access public markets with fewer strings attached. Blockchain company Chia Network recently took another step toward going public, while cloud-mining company BitFuFu and crypto cash-machine company Bitcoin Depot are working on plans to go public via SPAC mergers.
Though skeptics contend that the gains in crypto and other risky sectors are likely short-lived because of the Federal Reserve’s stated determination to hold short-term interest rates at the highest level in more than a decade
The Securities and Exchange Commission has been fighting to regulate most cryptocurrencies and the platforms that trade them. The regulator has sued a number of crypto companies for allegedly selling unregistered securities. Many crypto companies counter that they don’t sell or trade securities. From WSJ
A reader wrote–
Anyone who pays real money for any digital token is not investing but participating in a Ponzi scheme designed by its often elusive creator, regardless of how hard it is to “create” this token or “how many” there are; I am personally shocked that any digital currency is still legal but look at our lawmakers who are wined and dined by Sam Bankman and the like.?
dave.rajog and others, pleased don’t use links to paywall services like WSJ and Seeking Alpha, etc. The WordPress platform we use for this website blocks them. Your comment then goes to a ‘pending’ file I must approve — if I even see it listed on the admin panel.
There are always implosions in the market… especially earnings season….one need not trade everyday…. Be patient and choose your battles carefully… I’ve found the best gains are buying these good companies that got wrecked ….
UNH is the latest example… APP in the last cycle, etc..
I added Sarepta last week
UNH will remain on my Cara 100 (“Global Best 100 Companies”) list until more is known about the DOJ criminal complaint. Unfortunately, politicizing financial markets has put these difficult situations into the pending category when, years ago, investors would sell all positions at the hint of criminality.
In my weekly Navigator report, I cautioned against buying UNH shares until we learn more from the DOJ and the company. But from what I’ve seen so far, UNH’s intrinsic value is much higher than today’s share price. I’m not yet ready to put this company into the ‘bad’ category and remove it from the (new) Cara 100.
Global Market Navigator Report 19 Reviewed
https://billcara.com/help-you-invest/the-global-markets-navigator-report-may-18-2025-reviewed/
I have an exclusive arrangement with a company to take control of marketing this report and the billcara.com website. They are presently moving everything on my server to AWS.
As part of the agreement, I will support their day trading education platform, including writing a daily market report for day traders, starting at the end of the month. This is something new for me, but I am confident the report will meet or exceed traders’ expectations, as I have done with the Navigator report for investors. Of course, Baz22 will inform everyone if I’m up to the task.
Appreciate your work Bill!
Global Market Navigator Report 19 has been published.
The audio discussion is 48:49
https://notebooklm.google.com/notebook/29a6672a-a805-458e-b779-440bde438dfa/audio
The structure should be in place to move billcara.com from my server to AWS. We then plan to change its presentation and parts of the Navigator Report.
There will soon be announcements regarding my involvement with a new day trading education platform and writing a daily day trader’s report.
I’m off now to a pre-game meal. Go Leafs.