The Starbucks Q3 earnings report is out. The Bloomberg TV chyron flashed the breaking news that Starbucks’ same-store sales exceeded expectations. They did not.
Investors must stop getting their news from TV. When earnings reports are filed, the company issues a news release of the facts it reported to the SEC. Despite Bloomberg’s chyron, the facts tell a different story:
Global comparable store sales actually declined 2% in Q3 FY25.
In the US comp sales also fell 2%, driven by a 4% drop in transactions, slightly offset by a 2% increase in ticket size.
China showed improvement, with comp sales up 2%, thanks to a 6% boost in transactions, although average ticket shrank 4%.
So, China performed well, but company wide, there was no truth that comps “exceeded expectations.” It’s a slight miss globally and a notable underperformance in the US.
Moreover, while the Y/Y picture showed a +3.8% modest growth in revenue, overall EPS dropped about 46.5%. Operating margins dropped from 16.7% a year ago to this quarter’s 10.0%. And cash flow YTD dropped -26% from $4.56B to $3.37B,
Anybody except maybe Bloomberg and CNBC can see that Starbucks did not perform well. I view Starbucks as one of the Global Best 100 watchlist companies, but the stock (SBUX) is a different matter. It’s been on my Preferred List for a while — as in Prefer to Avoid.
Thank you to those who have joined me on Substack. We’re growing even faster than the US debt, as the graphic below shows. I think we’re up to 18 subscribers!
Ah, think of it as starting late in life. It’s all good.
Substack will soon become the publisher of this website, as well as a premium newsletter (or two), and my weekly Navigator reports, and all my eBooks that I am revising for 2025 editions.
Plan your trade, Trade your plan. Crayon drawing always win for me…Setup and sit back watch for the tells…SPY Just a what if, but I am pretty good at what ifs….
jimg
July 29, 2025 9:40 am
#47855
Bellwether NEM is outperforming bullion by a mile. Miners must be making a fortune.
Waiting for Helmerich & Payne (HP) earnings on 7 August; they had a poor Q2 with $0.01 reported. I expect this quarter to be a loss. Not sure if this is priced in. Saudi has suspended 26 rigs this year.
NYUGrad has been encouraging me for months to use Substack. For testing and learning, I posted a couple of items. Alexei likes the platform so much that he wants to move this website over to Substack, and I agreed. Trying something new is always fun. I’m looking forward to the change.
jimg
July 28, 2025 9:58 am
#47826
Who would have thought?
“The S&P is up 33% from the April lows, the NASDAQ is up 42%. The VIX is near 12-month lows. The S&P is valued at 3.3 times sales, a record high.”
There have been 4 major stock market declines since 2018 and a similar number of declines in the preceding 2 decades.
These cycles are coming more rapidly and the recoveries are steeper and quicker.
NQ NASDAQ UPDATE….Gap up to start the week and prices have entered my zone. I am not one to call tops or bottoms, but I do know when to NOT be a HOG. I have begun to hedge and starting to sell off what I have too here. I thought August/Sept time frame would do it. Plan your Trades, Trade you plan. Bulls and Bears prosper…HOGS get Slaughtered. The tape is long in the tooth now…let me know if your the last guy out so I can ask you to TURN OFF THE LIGHTS. I will await some better opportunities and lock in some nice gains here….Good luck all.
I’m finalizing this report for publication today on Substack. However, I will also publish it here, hoping that you will share the link with your associates. This week’s report is 460 pages, but it includes a 2,500-word executive summary, which I call The Navigator Brief. Most of this weekly report is for reference use.
I decided to publish two weekly reports: the Navigator Report for Investment Professionals and Sophisticated Investors, which is today’s report, and the Maverick Report for the average investor who may be more interested in ETFs, mutual funds, and concepts like Dollar Cost Averaging.
I will defer the next Maverick Report until I receive more feedback. The Navigator Report, however, has been vastly improved in both content and format. I have pushed AI to its limits to create an agent who is truly a mini-me. I have been building an AI library and a master prompt to produce output for today’s report, which accounts for approximately 30% of the publication. The prompt spans ten full pages and has taken me two months to develop.
I don’t enjoy the hassles with AI that over-promises and under-delivers, but I do enjoy the process of building systems. I hope readers enjoy the output.
squarpeg1
July 27, 2025 12:22 pm
#47814
Are we at the top? It just feels like it’s all running on dreams. What are traders here using as there most definitive guides to when they think we have left reality?
Scaled in on some Dow Inc (DOW) on today’s release of a dividend cut and a quarterly loss. Probably best to wait a few days on it. Shares off over 16% today though, after speculators bid it up to 30+ yesterday. Their loss is your gain.
I wonder if that US 50% tariff on copper is going to be canceled. Copper production in the US has dropped 20% in past decade, meanwhile it’s been added to the list of critical minerals. Looking over Teck Resources here; Sept copper is trading $5.81 US a pound.
It’s a wonderful day for Japan at the market today.
By threatening to impose 35% tariffs on Japanese products imported to the US, the Japanese government has agreed to permit the US government to charge American businesses and consumers a 15% tax in the form of higher prices. Japanese manufacturers are breathing easier; however, by having to pay more for Japanese goods, Americans are forced to support the failing US treasury. Trump and the Japanese government are now calling coercion and embezzlement a win-win. Americans must grin and bear it.
Japanese investors too, are calling this Happy Wednesday because it happens that the top five performers in the market today from my (old) Cara 100 Global Best Companies list are:
Toyota +13.7%
Fanuc Corp +13.5%
Honda Motor +13.1%
Keyence Corp +7.2%
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial +6.3%.
My new list, started earlier in July, has not been updated on my StockCharts account, but it will be, excluding Honda and Sumitomo.
It’s all very sickening for those of us who take this business seriously.Today’s stock market increasingly resembles a casino, where speculative trading is driven by quick gains rather than a disciplined investing approach based on fundamentals. Gambling online thru the use of mobile trading apps makes it tempting and easy for millions of retail investors to treat stocks like bets while encouraging emotional and impulsive behavior.
The players responsible for promoting this gambling-like environment include brokerage platforms that aggressively market fast trading products and options strategies, making speculative trading appear thrilling and accessible. Additionally, social media communities such as Reddit’s r/WallStreetBets, Stocktwits, and other online forums play a significant role by coordinating and hyping short-term, high-risk trades and “meme stocks” (like Kohl’s or Krispy Kreme). Financial media also contributes by popularizing shows such as Mad Money, Options Action, and Fast Money, which often glamorize rapid trading and short-term bets, normalizing gambling behavior under the guise of investing.
The rise of sports betting apps, prediction markets like Polymarket, ticket scalping platforms, and the cryptocurrency markets further weaves together a gambling culture with finance. Cryptocurrencies, in particular, have little intrinsic value and are susceptible to manipulation and fraud, often linked to organized crime, making them a risky playground for retail gamblers seeking quick riches. All of this will continue until there is a day of reckoning.
Trump further promotes this gambling mentality by frequently referencing the stock market, the crypto market, along with his desire to fire or threaten Jay Powell. All of this rhetoric encourages a mindset for investors to chase quick wins and exhibit behaviors similar to a gambling addiction.
We are all witnessing a society that is spinning the roulette wheel at the Trump Taj Ma Hal and everyone is a winner.
It’s professionals like you and me who must unite to sound an alarm that should be coming from our regulators. When this problem began long before the advent of crypto and Trump, our regulators took note of what was happening and allowed it to fester.
Trump is just one of the carpetbaggers who sit on both sides of the aisle, and their sycophants who run the government agencies, exploiting a transactional system structured on the self-interests of Humongous Bank & Broker.
The next time US HB&B crashes the global financial system, as happened in 2008, I hope the good people in Congress vote to let these banks go bankrupt.
Only this site trader will find information like this post, it educate us and makes us aware about new and upcoming financial engineering, I enjoy reading it and I never knew about this topic (predictive market), wish more people are here -t will help them understand what is going on,
Prediction markets align well with Trump’s playbook. Because he has bought and paid for the bureaucracy of securities, futures, and commodities regulators in place today, these markets will be legitimized. I wish that were not the case because it weakens our financial market system.
Major defense contractor Lockheed Martin shares plunge on $1.6 billion pre-tax loss. The company claims the loss is not due to tariffs, a statement they must make to avoid offending the President.
Here’s the Reuter’s news:
July 22 (Reuters) – Lockheed Martin (LMT.N), opens new tab reported on Tuesday that its second-quarter profit plunged by about 80%, after the U.S. defense group recorded a pretax loss of $1.6 billion, mainly linked to a classified program within its Aeronautics segment.
The company’s shares fell 7.9% in premarket trading as the company also trimmed its 2025 profit estimate by $1.5 billion or 18% and said it now targets $6.65 billion in operating profit for the year.
This new guidance, revised down since the company’s last estimate in April, did not include potential impacts from tariffs which have impacted other defense companies with international customers.
“Overall, the company’s foundation remains solid and resilient,” Chief Executive Jim Taiclet said in the company’s earnings statement.
Net income fell to $342 million, or $1.46 per share, compared with $1.64 billion, or $6.85 per share, a year earlier.
Lockheed said the charge stemmed from difficulties with a classified program in its Aeronautics business and several international helicopter programs in its Sikorsky unit.
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Defense contractors are grappling with mounting cost pressures as inflation and supply chain disruptions drive up expenses on long-term programs priced years ago.
Many of these contracts — often fixed-price — were negotiated before the post-pandemic surge in labor, material, and component costs, forcing contractors such as Lockheed to absorb overruns.
Apart from the $950 million charge on the classified program, Lockheed took a $570 million hit on its work for the Canadian government relating to the procurement of its CH-148 Cyclone maritime helicopters.
“The company is in ongoing discussions with the customer regarding a potential restructure to certain contractual terms and conditions and to expand the scope of work that would be beneficial to both parties,” Lockheed said of the program.
Excluding these charges, however, the group posted an adjusted profit of $7.29 per share, beating an average estimate of $6.44 per share according to data compiled by LSEG.
Lockheed missed Wall Street estimates for second-quarter revenue, which came in at $18.16 billion, compared with an average expectation of $18.57 billion.
A belated Happy Birthday Bill. Wishing you many more years in good health.
Came across the following:
SaaS industry veteran Jason Lemkin’s attempt to integrate artificial intelligence into his workflow has gone spectacularly wrong, with an AI coding assistant admitting to a “catastrophic failure” after wiping out an entire company database containing over 2,400 business records, according to Tom’s Hardware.
Did Starbucks Beat Expectations?
The Starbucks Q3 earnings report is out. The Bloomberg TV chyron flashed the breaking news that Starbucks’ same-store sales exceeded expectations. They did not.
Investors must stop getting their news from TV. When earnings reports are filed, the company issues a news release of the facts it reported to the SEC. Despite Bloomberg’s chyron, the facts tell a different story:
So, China performed well, but company wide, there was no truth that comps “exceeded expectations.” It’s a slight miss globally and a notable underperformance in the US.
Moreover, while the Y/Y picture showed a +3.8% modest growth in revenue, overall EPS dropped about 46.5%. Operating margins dropped from 16.7% a year ago to this quarter’s 10.0%. And cash flow YTD dropped -26% from $4.56B to $3.37B,
Anybody except maybe Bloomberg and CNBC can see that Starbucks did not perform well. I view Starbucks as one of the Global Best 100 watchlist companies, but the stock (SBUX) is a different matter. It’s been on my Preferred List for a while — as in Prefer to Avoid.
The new Mag-8 includes Palantir, but do investors understand this company?
https://billcara.com/help-you-invest/embedded-intelligence-the-case-for-and-against-palantir/
This is a serious issue for investors as well as for global society.
Novo Nordisk (NVO) off 22% today; I don’t have a grasp on all the issues.
No position.
Nice parabolic back to the 61.8// Should be a nice bounce once it finds its area.
goldbug58
This is earnings season. Don’t be misled by narratives. Get the facts!
https://billcara.com/help-you-invest/critical-thinking-in-the-age-of-deceit/
Thank you to those who have joined me on Substack. We’re growing even faster than the US debt, as the graphic below shows. I think we’re up to 18 subscribers!
Ah, think of it as starting late in life. It’s all good.
billcaradotcom.substack.com Take a moment to subscribe; it’s free.
Substack will soon become the publisher of this website, as well as a premium newsletter (or two), and my weekly Navigator reports, and all my eBooks that I am revising for 2025 editions.
Plan your trade, Trade your plan. Crayon drawing always win for me…Setup and sit back watch for the tells…SPY
Just a what if, but I am pretty good at what ifs….
Bellwether NEM is outperforming bullion by a mile. Miners must be making a fortune.
Waiting for Helmerich & Payne (HP) earnings on 7 August; they had a poor Q2 with $0.01 reported. I expect this quarter to be a loss. Not sure if this is priced in. Saudi has suspended 26 rigs this year.
No position but surely on watch.
Baytex Energy +16.67% since buy in 17 July.
Whitecap Resources +10.56%.
Holding here.
https://billcaradotcom.substack.com/
NYUGrad has been encouraging me for months to use Substack. For testing and learning, I posted a couple of items. Alexei likes the platform so much that he wants to move this website over to Substack, and I agreed. Trying something new is always fun.
I’m looking forward to the change.
Who would have thought?
“The S&P is up 33% from the April lows, the NASDAQ is up 42%. The VIX is near 12-month lows. The S&P is valued at 3.3 times sales, a record high.”
There have been 4 major stock market declines since 2018 and a similar number of declines in the preceding 2 decades.
These cycles are coming more rapidly and the recoveries are steeper and quicker.
NQ NASDAQ UPDATE….Gap up to start the week and prices have entered my zone. I am not one to call tops or bottoms, but I do know when to NOT be a HOG. I have begun to hedge and starting to sell off what I have too here. I thought August/Sept time frame would do it. Plan your Trades, Trade you plan. Bulls and Bears prosper…HOGS get Slaughtered. The tape is long in the tooth now…let me know if your the last guy out so I can ask you to TURN OFF THE LIGHTS. I will await some better opportunities and lock in some nice gains here….Good luck all.
Good stuff
Navigator Report #29 audio
https://notebooklm.google.com/notebook/93fe7bbe-3fa6-427a-9a55-b9f52a90513f/audio
I’m finalizing this report for publication today on Substack. However, I will also publish it here, hoping that you will share the link with your associates. This week’s report is 460 pages, but it includes a 2,500-word executive summary, which I call The Navigator Brief. Most of this weekly report is for reference use.
I decided to publish two weekly reports: the Navigator Report for Investment Professionals and Sophisticated Investors, which is today’s report, and the Maverick Report for the average investor who may be more interested in ETFs, mutual funds, and concepts like Dollar Cost Averaging.
I will defer the next Maverick Report until I receive more feedback. The Navigator Report, however, has been vastly improved in both content and format. I have pushed AI to its limits to create an agent who is truly a mini-me. I have been building an AI library and a master prompt to produce output for today’s report, which accounts for approximately 30% of the publication. The prompt spans ten full pages and has taken me two months to develop.
I don’t enjoy the hassles with AI that over-promises and under-delivers, but I do enjoy the process of building systems. I hope readers enjoy the output.
Are we at the top? It just feels like it’s all running on dreams. What are traders here using as there most definitive guides to when they think we have left reality?
My post– it say waiting for approval –Spam
Bought some Teck Resources on this 5.27% dip today; used to be a favorite here, don’t see it mentioned much anymore.
Scaled in on some Dow Inc (DOW) on today’s release of a dividend cut and a quarterly loss. Probably best to wait a few days on it. Shares off over 16% today though, after speculators bid it up to 30+ yesterday. Their loss is your gain.
I wonder if that US 50% tariff on copper is going to be canceled. Copper production in the US has dropped 20% in past decade, meanwhile it’s been added to the list of critical minerals. Looking over Teck Resources here; Sept copper is trading $5.81 US a pound.
According to Kobeissi, (1) institutional sellers are feeding the ducks and stocks are (2) in the red zone
Thanks.
very informative discussion
It’s a wonderful day for Japan at the market today.
By threatening to impose 35% tariffs on Japanese products imported to the US, the Japanese government has agreed to permit the US government to charge American businesses and consumers a 15% tax in the form of higher prices. Japanese manufacturers are breathing easier; however, by having to pay more for Japanese goods, Americans are forced to support the failing US treasury. Trump and the Japanese government are now calling coercion and embezzlement a win-win. Americans must grin and bear it.
Japanese investors too, are calling this Happy Wednesday because it happens that the top five performers in the market today from my (old) Cara 100 Global Best Companies list are:
My new list, started earlier in July, has not been updated on my StockCharts account, but it will be, excluding Honda and Sumitomo.
My question: Is participating in predictive markets investing?
Seriously.
https://billcara.com/help-you-invest/what-is-polymarket-qcx-and-qcex/
It’s all very sickening for those of us who take this business seriously.Today’s stock market increasingly resembles a casino, where speculative trading is driven by quick gains rather than a disciplined investing approach based on fundamentals. Gambling online thru the use of mobile trading apps makes it tempting and easy for millions of retail investors to treat stocks like bets while encouraging emotional and impulsive behavior.
The players responsible for promoting this gambling-like environment include brokerage platforms that aggressively market fast trading products and options strategies, making speculative trading appear thrilling and accessible. Additionally, social media communities such as Reddit’s r/WallStreetBets, Stocktwits, and other online forums play a significant role by coordinating and hyping short-term, high-risk trades and “meme stocks” (like Kohl’s or Krispy Kreme). Financial media also contributes by popularizing shows such as Mad Money, Options Action, and Fast Money, which often glamorize rapid trading and short-term bets, normalizing gambling behavior under the guise of investing.
The rise of sports betting apps, prediction markets like Polymarket, ticket scalping platforms, and the cryptocurrency markets further weaves together a gambling culture with finance. Cryptocurrencies, in particular, have little intrinsic value and are susceptible to manipulation and fraud, often linked to organized crime, making them a risky playground for retail gamblers seeking quick riches. All of this will continue until there is a day of reckoning.
Trump further promotes this gambling mentality by frequently referencing the stock market, the crypto market, along with his desire to fire or threaten Jay Powell. All of this rhetoric encourages a mindset for investors to chase quick wins and exhibit behaviors similar to a gambling addiction.
We are all witnessing a society that is spinning the roulette wheel at the Trump Taj Ma Hal and everyone is a winner.
John,
It’s professionals like you and me who must unite to sound an alarm that should be coming from our regulators. When this problem began long before the advent of crypto and Trump, our regulators took note of what was happening and allowed it to fester.
Trump is just one of the carpetbaggers who sit on both sides of the aisle, and their sycophants who run the government agencies, exploiting a transactional system structured on the self-interests of Humongous Bank & Broker.
The next time US HB&B crashes the global financial system, as happened in 2008, I hope the good people in Congress vote to let these banks go bankrupt.
Only this site trader will find information like this post, it educate us and makes us aware about new and upcoming financial engineering, I enjoy reading it and I never knew about this topic (predictive market), wish more people are here -t will help them understand what is going on,
My thoughts on CNBC’s interview of Polymarket’s acquisition of QCX and QCEX.
I’m concerned about the development of prediction markets. I wrote an article on the topic that I hope you’ll read.
https://billcara.com/help-you-invest/prediction-markets-a-useful-tool-or-a-risque-gamble/
Prediction markets align well with Trump’s playbook. Because he has bought and paid for the bureaucracy of securities, futures, and commodities regulators in place today, these markets will be legitimized. I wish that were not the case because it weakens our financial market system.
Audio Review of the Bill Cara Weekly Navigator Report
https://notebooklm.google.com/notebook/6ff61e9d-6477-436c-bc41-1a0d3b9288a3/audio
This is a 13-minute discussion. Please let people know your thoughts on my work.
Scaled in some natgas names on seasonal weakness;
Tourmaline, Range Resources, Antero
Major defense contractor Lockheed Martin shares plunge on $1.6 billion pre-tax loss.
The company claims the loss is not due to tariffs, a statement they must make to avoid offending the President.
Here’s the Reuter’s news:
For those who are interested: a glimpse into how I spend my days
https://billcara.com/help-you-invest/how-i-spend-my-time-with-ai-a-lesson-for-those-who-mistakenly-believe-that-ai-is-magic/
A belated Happy Birthday Bill. Wishing you many more years in good health.
Came across the following:
SaaS industry veteran Jason Lemkin’s attempt to integrate artificial intelligence into his workflow has gone spectacularly wrong, with an AI coding assistant admitting to a “catastrophic failure” after wiping out an entire company database containing over 2,400 business records, according to Tom’s Hardware.
https://www.zerohedge.com/ai/catastrophic-ai-agent-goes-rogue-wipes-out-companys-entire-database