I present to you the entire stock market. One wizard behind the curtain. $SPY $SPX
goldbug58
May 9, 2024 3:32 pm
#39907
Hecla Mining and Pan American Silver reported results yesterday, not sure if the market actually liked the results, or because silver is up 80 cents, but they are both having a good day.
B2Gold (BTG)(BTO.to) delays production start-up of Nunavut Canada mine.
The quarterly earnings report was a definite positive; however, the start-up of B2Gold’s new Canadian Gold mine was delayed until 2Q2025, a negative. Nevertheless, B2Gold is up about +5% today. This Cara favorite, and holding of mine, appears set for an upside breakout.
Here is the Stifel research update on BTO.to (the Canadian listing):
B2Gold (BTO-TSX, C$3.49, Buy; Target C$6.00) – Goose construction update: successful WIR gets overshadowed by initial production delay – Ingrid Rico – B2Gold reported Q1 results which came slightly above consensus as cash cost / AISC were better-than-expected, and below FY guidance expectations. That said, the focus is less on quarterly results and more on the construction update at Goose which highlighted a successful winter ice road (a de-risking checkmark), but this was dampened by a 3-month delay to initial production (now 2Q2025) resulting in a ~100koz impact to previous production expectations for 2025 (~8% of our 2025e total production estimate). On our first look, we estimate the lower production translates into 2025e EBITDA impact of over $150M (or nearly 15% impact to our current EBITDA forecast). An updated cost estimate is expected to be completed in June. Shares have lagged, and we believe have already broadly priced-in the hurdles to 2025 growth. That said, investors still need to regain reassurance on this new mine and BTO’s 2025 growth expectations.
New Pacific Metals (NEWP)(NUAG.to) appears on the verge of an upside breakout.
NEWP (up +4% today) is one of my biggest investment disappointments for several years. This company’s controlling party has decided its future without obligatory transparency. Previously, I opined that the future would be linked to a takeover by China’s Zijin Mining Group. With further thought on the matter, I now think the acquisition party is just as likely to be Pan American Silver Corp (PAAS), which is up over +9% today (for reasons I have not looked into yet).
In any case, NEWP, presently at US$2.09, appears ready to move into the US$2.70-$2.75 range.
Editas is one you give to your children….it truly will change medicine…when dealing with major disease and trying to find a cure, it takes at least 5 years of trials…but the results of the biotechs are, thankfully, being’ fast tracked ‘ much more often…. All one needs to do is look at the history of REGN and see what meaningful biotech discoveries can lead to, price wise. .The same can apply to VRTX..
Good questions…. I believe the paradigm has shifted dramatically from the concept of big pharma ‘ maintenance ‘ of symptoms to today’s Biotech of search for cures…the failure rates of research were once 90%.. thus the tremendously high drug costs for the ones that made FDA approval…but the advent of AI and sequence genetic work will allow for much greater success and hopefully lower prices ( per what insurance cost’s are for the lifetime of patients maintenance)…
3pm $SPY 26m shares traded vs 70m avg daily. Market is closed.
Is Tue/Wed in office day for you? Work in finance? Avoid that creepy manager who always asks you “Are you coming to happy hour tonight?” with that desperate grin.
Get outside. Enjoy your life. Leave the office now and go home and hug your family. I will be the one with Van Leeuwen ice cream walking my dog. #wallst
Leading Canadian Oil analyst continues his call for higher prices.
Eric Nuttal has made many bad calls in past years — who hasn’t? — but he is a highly respected analyst. His Tweet today is more of the same:
ericnuttall (@Eric Nuttall) posted:
With an expected continuation of Saudi/OPEC voluntary cuts into 2H’24, we see global oil inventories falling to record low levels by YE’24, supportive of $90 Brent (zero political risk premium).
Is buying Gold a concern for the future of all fiat money or a defense by many nations against the US Dollar?
The most reasonable explanation for the price (in USD) of Gold continuing to rise, as I see it, is the massive purchases by central banks in Turkey, China, and India. This Tweeter provides some info:
KobeissiLetter (@The Kobeissi Letter) posted:
BREAKING: World central banks’ net gold purchases set a new record in Q1 2024.
Global central banks bought 290 tonnes of gold in the first quarter, above the previous all-time high of 286 tonnes, as seen in Q1 2023.
Purchases were led by Turkey, China, and India, putting us on track…
Editas announced what was expected of earnings…what they didn’t announce was super duper clinical results before earnings, thankfully …. Looking for updates on programs soon
A very positive assessment of one of the leading Goldminers, and a Cara Core-12 Natural Resource selection.
Kinross Gold (K-TSX, C$9.42, Buy; Target C$11.50) – Q1 comes ahead of expectations; Kinross maintains operational momentum – Ingrid Rico – Impact: Positive — K’s quarterly results beat expectations on the back of another consecutive quarter of operational performance and solid momentum. Quarterly production at 527koz came ahead of our forecast (and consensus) of 502koz, which positions Kinross well, at the start of the year, to achieve FY expectations. Quarterly cash cost and AISC came in better than we were forecasting, and K is now tracking below the midpoint of guidance on cash costs. FCF generation in the quarter stood out as materially better than Street’s expectations with FCF (pre-changes in w/c) of nearly $120M vs. consensus: $38M; Stifel est: $90M. Looking ahead, FCF will get a boost in Q2 as margins increase (K’s realized Q1 gold price was $2,070/oz with Q2 gold price so far averaging ~$2,300/oz). All-in-all, we see another good year ahead with strong free cash flow generation at current gold prices supporting accelerated debt repayments and balance sheet deleveraging.
All is going well with Cara-favorite Kinross Gold, but the game-changer, as I replied at the time, was the 2021 acquisition of Great Bear Resources and their Dixie Project in the Red Lake District of Northern Ontario. I held both Great Bear and Kinross then and remarked that adding a developing major Canadian gold mine would give Kinross a lower-risk profile and higher rating.
A year ago, another Cara-favorite, B2Gold, acquired another of my holdings, Sabina’s 100%-owned Back River Gold District and mine in Nunavut, Canada. This acquisition, I stated, would also give B2Gold a lower-risk profile and higher rating.
Together with Agnico Eagle and Alamos Gold, these four companies should meet any investor’s interest in gold production. All have superb properties, powerful balance sheets, and excellent management.
It’s been almost three weeks since the much-ballyhooed April 19 Bitcoin halving, and the anticipated price surge has fizzled out like a wet firecracker, leaving some of us scratching our heads.
As someone who views Bitcoin more as a tradable price than a long-term investment, I’m keen on understanding the intricate dynamics of money flows across global assets and liabilities to decipher market movements. For this reason, I watch Bitcoin’s price series, and the recent post-halving silence raises questions.
Why did so many Bitcoin proponents hype up a potential price explosion following the halving, only for the price to dip afterward? I fail to grasp the correlation between the halving event and price movements. In fact, I struggle to comprehend the concept of halving itself, as well as the valuation of what I perceive as an electronic concept, or ‘fancy’ if you will.
Despite my age, I remain open to learning. So, I implore someone to shed light on why there’s been a conspicuous lack of noise in the aftermath of the Bitcoin halving, especially when pre-halving reports teased the possibility of a surge to $100,000 and even into the multi-millions according to some extreme forecasts.
Just left a Meineke repair… The general manager and I had a good conversation…he had recently finished a nationwide corporate weekend meeting…I was surprised when he stated that the consensus was the US economy was overwhelming negative, and things were not good…. I think this sums up the general sentiment…I believe that except for Big money, no one is, ( or has the funds ) to buy Bitcoin…. The young people I have referenced the past few years are not interested in buying, but are not selling… I think this is the general attitude amoung the populations…. So perhaps a stalemate has set in for now… It probably doesn’t help that big bankers such as JP Morgan see no purpose for BTC… I had said last year that the ETFS were only interested in amassing the current supply of Bitcoin, since only 1.2 million more would ever be created, and would take close to one hundred years since the ‘ Halving’s ‘ cut BTC production in half every 4 years … I guess when the ‘ whale’s ‘ are read to move it, they will…. personally, I think BTC is going back to the $ 40’s K and then start it’s climb toward the $ 100 K projections
Aloha! The hype on BTC has been off the charts this year and especially once it moved past $40K. I always see hype and price hockey sticks and the whole FOMO as a red flag. A lot of BTC has been FOMO. As many of the retailers were buying BTC and the new BTC ETF the big guys like Saylor were selling BTC and shares in miners and MSTR. The inflation fee last halving was 4% this time it was 1.4%. Also Mt Gox settled out and flooded more BTC on the market to those who regained their lost BTC. Why would anyone losing their BTC from fraud ever want to buy BTC? They were sellers and I am sure thanked the BTC ETF! Someone who knows more can check that. The miners can’t make their ROI. Those should have been red flags also. When was GOLD every hyped by the likes of Tom Brady, Musk or Mark Cuban? So many red flags on all levels except CNBC and Blackrock! All the sell side was onboard the Titanic. I have always been a NO GO guy on BTC but not blockchain. I am against CBDC. I think the first wave of the BTC crash took out a lot of Robinhooders and now this one will take out a lot more. Its like Hurricane Harvey. A fast moving hurricane does a lot less damage than a stalled out Hurricane Harvey. With the BidenWH combo of inflation and high US Fed rates it benched a lot of BTC Robinhooders.
The price effects are not played out. I anticipate more head winds and lower BTC price action. I also anticipate the younger ones moving out of BTC to a degree and into gold and silver and the explorers. BANG FOR BUCK!! Thats why I want to be positioned in companies that trade near $1 and have mines with deposits and permits in hand. Buying juniors with under 2mil ounces and deposits at or under 200 depth with over 200mil shares is something I avoid.
Laid of Tesla worker now is planning to live in his Tesla for 5 yrs and become financially independent by stashing away $2k per month into the stock market ($120,000) in California.
Nico Murrilo was laid off April 15 from Tesla, where was a former Production supervisor. OTE was $120k including stock compensation. He seems he was committed to climbing the ladder on the assembly line. I have no idea who he is and cannot vouch for his performance there. However I watched the entire video and was thinking to myself, how many more stories like Nico’s will we see in the coming months?
Hopefully this young man bounces back. I believe he has found a job as a GNC retail store manager.
Maybe his YouTube channel will grow and that will become his saving grace (his Laid off story has almost 900k views). I do love the initiative and realization he needs to save a lot more.
Kinross reported Q1 results; I was most interested in margins, which increased 20% to $1088/oz; given the healthy price of gold, that was expected. With a 13% increase in production, however, I think they should be making more than 10 cents per share?
It’s time to follow the Fed’s cautious and data-driven approach.
Last week, we saw FOMC’s decision and a slew of important economic updates, which Wall Street believes will affect interest rates in 2024. Before commenting further, let me remind readers that five months ago, in the heat of unanimous Wall Street projections of soon-to-happen rate cuts, I argued that inflation was looking like it would rise again in 2024. Based on hard economic data and sustainably high corporate earnings, I opined that the initial FOMC rate change would be at the December 2024 meeting. I also believed it would be a rate cut to start the broad market spiraling lower into a 2025 Bear based on investor fears of a hard economic landing and deflation that would arise at the time.
To review last week, 1Q2024 data showed that real GDP annual growth was 1.6%, a sharp drop from 4Q2023’s 3.4%. That data signaled a sudden economic slowdown, which, along with high inflation, is called ‘Stagflation.’ Midweek, despite the economic slowdown, March’s JOLTS data showed job openings stayed high at 8.1 million, which analysts interpret as a robust labor market. April’s US Jobs Report showed employment slowed to 175,000 from 315,000 in March, with the unemployment rate at 3.9%. As a result, the NY Fed lowered its Q2 GDP forecast from 2.74% to 2.23%, still higher than the 1.8% that Wall Street had expected.
From the important FOMC meeting, the Fed kept the target funds rate range unchanged. The pace of maturing Treasuries and agency securities running off slowed. Chairman Powell reiterated the Fed’s determination to bring inflation down to its 2% target for PCE, focusing on Private Domestic Final Purchases, which rose 3.1% in Q1. He stressed the need for confidence in inflation reaching 2% before considering rate cuts, which isn’t indicated by recent economic data. When pressed for projections on rate cuts for 2024, Powell emphasized the importance of incoming data, suggesting at least three months of declining inflation towards 2% before any rate cut consideration, likely in the fall.
The crux of the meeting was the Fed’s unwavering commitment to anchoring inflation at 2%, a goal that necessitates substantial evidence before any rate adjustments are made. This steadfast stance echoed throughout Powell’s remarks and signaled the Fed’s cautious and data-driven approach to monetary policy, which I believed would be the case.
After the Fed decision, it was apparent that investors approved of the FOMC decision. The following day, I posted: “Investors thank the FOMC for the green flag. No Bear market is to happen. Yet.”
Wall Street continues to warn investors that these are dangerous times. I see this as virtue signaling by Humongous Bank & Broker as they continue to pump prices higher as they cash out before the crash. Share buy-backs, dividends, investment banking fees, and high bank loan and mortgage rates are the HB&B lifeblood. They will keep the Bull market going as long as they believe there is more for their customers to give them.
NYUGrad has written about big-name investor David Einhorn’s take:
Another note re Greenlight and Einhorn, they returned 4.9% in 1st qtr of 2024 vs 10.6% for S&P 500 index. It must be very hard indeed beating passive investing that are all pooling into a dozen stocks.
Lastly look at the 10 yr vs indices. I will use Nasdaq. Tick for tick inverse. This is just so sad. They could fire every soul working in finance and the Fed. And just march Jerome Powell to the mic every Wed at 2pm ET. The market would function the same as it is right now.
goldbug58
May 7, 2024 5:54 pm
#39871
PBOC gold imports YTD reported at around 29 tons; April was much lower, at only 2 tons.
China’s holdings of USTs have dropped by about 40% over the past few years; as far as China is concerned, US govt securities are no longer the trusted financial assets they once were. Still a big part of the global financial system and widely held by the western G7 nations and Japan.
McKinsey & Co. is the largest and one of the most prestigious management consulting firms. Their paper on inflation today is a simple tutorial for aspiring investors.
Precious Metals are strengthening as the US Dollar and 10-year Treasury Yield weaken.
The financial world is back in harmony.
With the FOMC decision and statement in hand, which eliminated doubts that rates would rise in the near future, if at all, investors have put cash to work in stocks, bonds, and precious metals.
I present to you the entire stock market. One wizard behind the curtain. $SPY $SPX
Hecla Mining and Pan American Silver reported results yesterday, not sure if the market actually liked the results, or because silver is up 80 cents, but they are both having a good day.
B2Gold (BTG)(BTO.to) delays production start-up of Nunavut Canada mine.
The quarterly earnings report was a definite positive; however, the start-up of B2Gold’s new Canadian Gold mine was delayed until 2Q2025, a negative. Nevertheless, B2Gold is up about +5% today. This Cara favorite, and holding of mine, appears set for an upside breakout.
Here is the Stifel research update on BTO.to (the Canadian listing):
B2Gold (US listing)
New Pacific Metals (NEWP)(NUAG.to) appears on the verge of an upside breakout.
NEWP (up +4% today) is one of my biggest investment disappointments for several years. This company’s controlling party has decided its future without obligatory transparency. Previously, I opined that the future would be linked to a takeover by China’s Zijin Mining Group. With further thought on the matter, I now think the acquisition party is just as likely to be Pan American Silver Corp (PAAS), which is up over +9% today (for reasons I have not looked into yet).
In any case, NEWP, presently at US$2.09, appears ready to move into the US$2.70-$2.75 range.
NEWP
PAAS
Pan American Silver (PAAS) news:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/paas-stock-earnings-pan-american-silver-beats-eps-beats-revenue-for-q1-2024/ar-BB1m4jSR
https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/nyse-paas-sec-filing-2024-05-09/
Editas is one you give to your children….it truly will change medicine…when dealing with major disease and trying to find a cure, it takes at least 5 years of trials…but the results of the biotechs are, thankfully, being’ fast tracked ‘ much more often…. All one needs to do is look at the history of REGN and see what meaningful biotech discoveries can lead to, price wise. .The same can apply to VRTX..
Alex’s blog: “Some questions about biotech that I find interesting”
https://atelfo.github.io/2024/04/01/biotech-questions.html
Good questions…. I believe the paradigm has shifted dramatically from the concept of big pharma ‘ maintenance ‘ of symptoms to today’s Biotech of search for cures…the failure rates of research were once 90%.. thus the tremendously high drug costs for the ones that made FDA approval…but the advent of AI and sequence genetic work will allow for much greater success and hopefully lower prices ( per what insurance cost’s are for the lifetime of patients maintenance)…
3pm $SPY 26m shares traded vs 70m avg daily. Market is closed.
Is Tue/Wed in office day for you? Work in finance? Avoid that creepy manager who always asks you “Are you coming to happy hour tonight?” with that desperate grin.
Get outside. Enjoy your life. Leave the office now and go home and hug your family.
I will be the one with Van Leeuwen ice cream walking my dog.
#wallst
Leading Canadian Oil analyst continues his call for higher prices.
Eric Nuttal has made many bad calls in past years — who hasn’t? — but he is a highly respected analyst. His Tweet today is more of the same:
Is buying Gold a concern for the future of all fiat money or a defense by many nations against the US Dollar?
The most reasonable explanation for the price (in USD) of Gold continuing to rise, as I see it, is the massive purchases by central banks in Turkey, China, and India. This Tweeter provides some info:
Editas announced what was expected of earnings…what they didn’t announce was super duper clinical results before earnings, thankfully …. Looking for updates on programs soon
Stifel notes on Kinross (K.to)(KGC)
A very positive assessment of one of the leading Goldminers, and a Cara Core-12 Natural Resource selection.
Had to switch cell setup…sorry…email should be working
https://www.kinross.com/news-and-investors/news-releases/press-release-details/2024/Kinross-reports-2024-first-quarter-results/default.aspx
All is going well with Cara-favorite Kinross Gold, but the game-changer, as I replied at the time, was the 2021 acquisition of Great Bear Resources and their Dixie Project in the Red Lake District of Northern Ontario. I held both Great Bear and Kinross then and remarked that adding a developing major Canadian gold mine would give Kinross a lower-risk profile and higher rating.
A year ago, another Cara-favorite, B2Gold, acquired another of my holdings, Sabina’s 100%-owned Back River Gold District and mine in Nunavut, Canada. This acquisition, I stated, would also give B2Gold a lower-risk profile and higher rating.
Together with Agnico Eagle and Alamos Gold, these four companies should meet any investor’s interest in gold production. All have superb properties, powerful balance sheets, and excellent management.
Anyone else here follow Newfound Gold (NFGC)? I opened a starter position recently.
Bitcoin Halving: The Hype and the Reality
It’s been almost three weeks since the much-ballyhooed April 19 Bitcoin halving, and the anticipated price surge has fizzled out like a wet firecracker, leaving some of us scratching our heads.
As someone who views Bitcoin more as a tradable price than a long-term investment, I’m keen on understanding the intricate dynamics of money flows across global assets and liabilities to decipher market movements. For this reason, I watch Bitcoin’s price series, and the recent post-halving silence raises questions.
Why did so many Bitcoin proponents hype up a potential price explosion following the halving, only for the price to dip afterward? I fail to grasp the correlation between the halving event and price movements. In fact, I struggle to comprehend the concept of halving itself, as well as the valuation of what I perceive as an electronic concept, or ‘fancy’ if you will.
Despite my age, I remain open to learning. So, I implore someone to shed light on why there’s been a conspicuous lack of noise in the aftermath of the Bitcoin halving, especially when pre-halving reports teased the possibility of a surge to $100,000 and even into the multi-millions according to some extreme forecasts.
Just left a Meineke repair… The general manager and I had a good conversation…he had recently finished a nationwide corporate weekend meeting…I was surprised when he stated that the consensus was the US economy was overwhelming negative, and things were not good…. I think this sums up the general sentiment…I believe that except for Big money, no one is, ( or has the funds ) to buy Bitcoin…. The young people I have referenced the past few years are not interested in buying, but are not selling… I think this is the general attitude amoung the populations…. So perhaps a stalemate has set in for now… It probably doesn’t help that big bankers such as JP Morgan see no purpose for BTC… I had said last year that the ETFS were only interested in amassing the current supply of Bitcoin, since only 1.2 million more would ever be created, and would take close to one hundred years since the ‘ Halving’s ‘ cut BTC production in half every 4 years … I guess when the ‘ whale’s ‘ are read to move it, they will…. personally, I think BTC is going back to the $ 40’s K and then start it’s climb toward the $ 100 K projections
Aloha!
The hype on BTC has been off the charts this year and especially once it moved past $40K. I always see hype and price hockey sticks and the whole FOMO as a red flag. A lot of BTC has been FOMO. As many of the retailers were buying BTC and the new BTC ETF the big guys like Saylor were selling BTC and shares in miners and MSTR. The inflation fee last halving was 4% this time it was 1.4%. Also Mt Gox settled out and flooded more BTC on the market to those who regained their lost BTC. Why would anyone losing their BTC from fraud ever want to buy BTC? They were sellers and I am sure thanked the BTC ETF! Someone who knows more can check that. The miners can’t make their ROI. Those should have been red flags also. When was GOLD every hyped by the likes of Tom Brady, Musk or Mark Cuban? So many red flags on all levels except CNBC and Blackrock! All the sell side was onboard the Titanic. I have always been a NO GO guy on BTC but not blockchain. I am against CBDC. I think the first wave of the BTC crash took out a lot of Robinhooders and now this one will take out a lot more. Its like Hurricane Harvey. A fast moving hurricane does a lot less damage than a stalled out Hurricane Harvey. With the BidenWH combo of inflation and high US Fed rates it benched a lot of BTC Robinhooders.
The price effects are not played out. I anticipate more head winds and lower BTC price action. I also anticipate the younger ones moving out of BTC to a degree and into gold and silver and the explorers. BANG FOR BUCK!! Thats why I want to be positioned in companies that trade near $1 and have mines with deposits and permits in hand. Buying juniors with under 2mil ounces and deposits at or under 200 depth with over 200mil shares is something I avoid.
Laid of Tesla worker now is planning to live in his Tesla for 5 yrs and become financially independent by stashing away $2k per month into the stock market ($120,000) in California.
Nico Murrilo was laid off April 15 from Tesla, where was a former Production supervisor. OTE was $120k including stock compensation. He seems he was committed to climbing the ladder on the assembly line. I have no idea who he is and cannot vouch for his performance there. However I watched the entire video and was thinking to myself, how many more stories like Nico’s will we see in the coming months?
Hopefully this young man bounces back. I believe he has found a job as a GNC retail store manager.
Maybe his YouTube channel will grow and that will become his saving grace (his Laid off story has almost 900k views). I do love the initiative and realization he needs to save a lot more.
https://youtu.be/uqXWL2SoQVk
$TSLA #TESLA #LAYOFFS #Economy #Wealthgap
The US government has a contract with GSK to produce H5N1 vaccines if necessary…. GSK works with CureVac, CVAC…….. ( near end of article )..https://www.healthline.com/health-news/bird-flu-u-s-could-produce-and-ship-100-million-vaccine-doses-within-months#Would-these-bird-flu-vaccines-work?-
** the 2009 vaccine was developed by Novavax
#MAG7. How much are owned by etfs?
1001 ETFs own $AAPL
958 ETFs own $AMZN
910 ETFs own $META
1213 ETFs own $MSFT
1114 ETFs own $NVDA
704 ETFs own $TSLA
973 ETFs $GOOGL
760 ETFs $GOOG
Source: Tipranks
I am still shocked by what’s happening in commercial real estate.
Special loan officers must be in high demand at mortgage lending banks.
https://twitter.com/TripleNetInvest/status/1788018045203734616
That is really bananas!
Kinross reported Q1 results; I was most interested in margins, which increased 20% to $1088/oz; given the healthy price of gold, that was expected. With a 13% increase in production, however, I think they should be making more than 10 cents per share?
It’s time to follow the Fed’s cautious and data-driven approach.
Last week, we saw FOMC’s decision and a slew of important economic updates, which Wall Street believes will affect interest rates in 2024. Before commenting further, let me remind readers that five months ago, in the heat of unanimous Wall Street projections of soon-to-happen rate cuts, I argued that inflation was looking like it would rise again in 2024. Based on hard economic data and sustainably high corporate earnings, I opined that the initial FOMC rate change would be at the December 2024 meeting. I also believed it would be a rate cut to start the broad market spiraling lower into a 2025 Bear based on investor fears of a hard economic landing and deflation that would arise at the time.
To review last week, 1Q2024 data showed that real GDP annual growth was 1.6%, a sharp drop from 4Q2023’s 3.4%. That data signaled a sudden economic slowdown, which, along with high inflation, is called ‘Stagflation.’ Midweek, despite the economic slowdown, March’s JOLTS data showed job openings stayed high at 8.1 million, which analysts interpret as a robust labor market. April’s US Jobs Report showed employment slowed to 175,000 from 315,000 in March, with the unemployment rate at 3.9%. As a result, the NY Fed lowered its Q2 GDP forecast from 2.74% to 2.23%, still higher than the 1.8% that Wall Street had expected.
From the important FOMC meeting, the Fed kept the target funds rate range unchanged. The pace of maturing Treasuries and agency securities running off slowed. Chairman Powell reiterated the Fed’s determination to bring inflation down to its 2% target for PCE, focusing on Private Domestic Final Purchases, which rose 3.1% in Q1. He stressed the need for confidence in inflation reaching 2% before considering rate cuts, which isn’t indicated by recent economic data. When pressed for projections on rate cuts for 2024, Powell emphasized the importance of incoming data, suggesting at least three months of declining inflation towards 2% before any rate cut consideration, likely in the fall.
The crux of the meeting was the Fed’s unwavering commitment to anchoring inflation at 2%, a goal that necessitates substantial evidence before any rate adjustments are made. This steadfast stance echoed throughout Powell’s remarks and signaled the Fed’s cautious and data-driven approach to monetary policy, which I believed would be the case.
After the Fed decision, it was apparent that investors approved of the FOMC decision. The following day, I posted: “Investors thank the FOMC for the green flag. No Bear market is to happen. Yet.”
Wall Street continues to warn investors that these are dangerous times. I see this as virtue signaling by Humongous Bank & Broker as they continue to pump prices higher as they cash out before the crash. Share buy-backs, dividends, investment banking fees, and high bank loan and mortgage rates are the HB&B lifeblood. They will keep the Bull market going as long as they believe there is more for their customers to give them.
NYUGrad has written about big-name investor David Einhorn’s take:
There are excellent points here. I have made many of them, too.
To investors, facts matter. Regardless of Wall Street’s hot take at the time, please ignore it. When the FOMC cuts rates, SELL.
Thank you for the shout out.
Another note re Greenlight and Einhorn, they returned 4.9% in 1st qtr of 2024 vs 10.6% for S&P 500 index. It must be very hard indeed beating passive investing that are all pooling into a dozen stocks.
Lastly look at the 10 yr vs indices. I will use Nasdaq. Tick for tick inverse. This is just so sad. They could fire every soul working in finance and the Fed. And just march Jerome Powell to the mic every Wed at 2pm ET. The market would function the same as it is right now.
PBOC gold imports YTD reported at around 29 tons; April was much lower, at only 2 tons.
China’s holdings of USTs have dropped by about 40% over the past few years; as far as China is concerned, US govt securities are no longer the trusted financial assets they once were. Still a big part of the global financial system and widely held by the western G7 nations and Japan.
An example of how investing in real estate can hurt your pension.
@TripleNetInvest
All you need to know about inflation.
McKinsey & Co. is the largest and one of the most prestigious management consulting firms. Their paper on inflation today is a simple tutorial for aspiring investors.
Precious Metals are strengthening as the US Dollar and 10-year Treasury Yield weaken.
The financial world is back in harmony.
With the FOMC decision and statement in hand, which eliminated doubts that rates would rise in the near future, if at all, investors have put cash to work in stocks, bonds, and precious metals.
US Dollar Futures
US 10-year Treasury Yield
Gold Futures
Silver Futures
Why Buy and Blindly Hold is Dangeroushttps://nyugrad.substack.com/p/why-buy-and-blindly-hold-is-dangerous
Stocks still risky & “I find your lack of faith disturbing.” 🎧 #194 (May 4)
Star Wars Edition: 25 Potential Longs for Paid Subscribers
Show notes: https://nyugrad.substack.com/p/stocks-still-risky-and-i-find-your
May the 4th be with you!
– Premium Episode 40min
– Free Preview 22 min
MAY THE 4TH BE WITH YOU!
https://youtu.be/fxCR2bFWHxM
Trying to post some important data but the censorship gods holding up…..oh well…I tried