PORTFOLIO 3 (DURABLE GROWTH) RESULTS
The S&P 500 closed Monday, May 4, at 7,200.75, off −0.41% on the session. Against that index move, the P3 Durable Growth portfolio gained +$1,123 (+1.08%), with seven of ten positions advancing on the day. Portfolio value at the close stands at $105,110 — $91,401 (87.0%) deployed in equities and $13,709 (13.0%) in cash. Since the April 30 restart at $103,465.94, the portfolio is +1.59%.
There were no decisions today. No buys, no trims, no exits. Every name in the book opened the session inside its stop level and closed inside it. P3 is on a Monday-through-Thursday reporting cadence, with the next scheduled issue published after the close on Thursday, May 7. Between issues, paid subscribers receive intra-day notification on any change of position, delivered after the close that session.
A Note on STAT and INSTAT — and What I Will Be Watching
Beginning with this issue, the holdings table carries two scores in addition to Ziggma: STAT and INSTAT. STAT is the short- and intermediate-term composite (the Algorithmic Trader and Position Trader components, scaled −100 to +100). INSTAT adds the long-term Investor component on top of STAT. The two readings together tell a story that neither tells alone: STAT captures what the tape is doing now; INSTAT captures whether the longer-term picture confirms or contradicts it.
What I will be watching, on this portfolio, over the next several weeks: any name where STAT deteriorates faster than INSTAT. That divergence — short-term breakdown ahead of any longer-term confirming weakness — is the signal I will trim into. It is the earliest evidence that a position has lost its footing, and trimming on that evidence preserves capital before a stop-level event becomes necessary. Stop levels remain the hard backstop: any close below stop triggers an exit on the following session, with after-close subscriber notice that day. The STAT-versus-INSTAT watch sits one step earlier in the chain. It is a discretionary risk-management overlay, not a mechanical rule.
Today’s readings provide a useful snapshot of where the ten holdings sit on this framework. Three names — ECL, ISRG, and VRTX — print STAT at −100, the floor of the scale, with INSTAT in the −80s and high −90s. These are the deepest accumulation-zone readings in the book and were taken with that profile understood. MA prints STAT −96 / INSTAT −96, the cleanest convergence on the negative side. DECK is similar at −94 / −95. On the positive side, FSLR’s STAT +84 / INSTAT +73 confirms the documented diversification entry. CRM’s STAT +96 against INSTAT +13 is the most asymmetric reading in the book — short-term has turned hard while the long-term picture is only beginning to confirm. That is constructive, not concerning. PODD’s STAT −34 / INSTAT −67 is the mirror image and bears watching: short-term firming ahead of any confirmed long-term improvement, a profile that can resolve either direction.
MARKET OBSERVATIONS
This morning I was cautious, and it turns out that was the right call.
Heading into today, I thought the market would open carefully, and it did. Traders were focused on two things: the escalating fight in the Middle East, and the big jobs report coming Friday. The consensus expects only about 53,000 new jobs for April, way down from March’s 178,000. Unemployment is seen holding at 4.3%. Beyond the usual economic reading, people are starting to watch for early signs of AI-related job shifts.
Earnings season is still rolling. This week Palantir and AMD report on the tech side, while Disney and McDonald’s represent the consumer space. So far, corporate results have been decent, which helped take some edge off the geopolitical worry.
Technically, the market is at record highs again, which is fine. But this rally is only about a month old and climbed fast. A pause or some volatility wouldn’t surprise me.
Geopolitics drove everything today – and I don’t expect that to change soon.
The big story is still the US‑Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz. About one‑fifth of global oil moves through that narrow waterway, and it’s been effectively shut. Trump announced “Project Freedom” to force it open again. Iran claimed it hit US destroyers with missiles; the US military says that’s false and that two American merchant ships got through without losses.
Then a South Korean‑flagged vessel caught fire and exploded in the strait. Washington wants Seoul to join Project Freedom. Trump warned Iran would be “blown off the face of the earth” if it attacks US ships, and said US forces have already taken out several small Iranian boats.
Even if the strait reopens quickly, experts say it’ll take months for supply chains to normalize. That tells me the worst of the energy price shock may still be ahead. Already, people are cutting back on summer travel because gas prices hurt.
Other trouble: Fujairah attacked, UAE leaving OPEC.
The UAE said it intercepted Iranian missiles and drones that caused a fire at the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone – a huge storage hub that also connects to a pipeline bypassing Hormuz. Three Indian nationals were injured. Any damage there makes the oil disruption worse.
Separately, the UAE announced last week it’s leaving OPEC. That’s a real blow to the cartel’s cohesion. OPEC+ still said it would raise output by 188,000 barrels a day in June, but that’s been overwhelmed by fear. Brent crude for July delivery jumped 5.4% to about $114 a barrel. The dollar strengthened, gold dipped. So far, investors are treating this as an energy supply shock, not a full systemic crisis.
The broader economy is still solid – but the Fed is split.
First‑quarter GDP growth accelerated, though a bit below forecasts. The Fed’s preferred inflation numbers came in as expected. Weekly jobless claims fell to their lowest since 1969. So the real economy isn’t falling apart.
But the Fed left rates unchanged last week with four dissents – the most since 1992. That tells you how divided they are. Powell will stay on the board after his chair term ends, with Kevin Warsh expected to take over. So there’s real uncertainty about what the Fed will prioritize going forward.
Big tech earnings were mixed, but hyperscalers like Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta reaffirmed or raised AI‑related spending. As JPMorgan’s Michael Feroli put it, we have a split screen: solid US data and fresh stock records on one side, no Middle East peace and spiking energy prices on the other. The key question is whether oil stays high long enough to slow global growth before any political settlement.
How the day actually ended: geopolitics won.
U.S. stocks closed lower. The S&P 500 fell 0.4% to 7,201.75, the Nasdaq slipped 0.2% to 25,067.80, and the Dow dropped 1.1% to 48,941.90. As one strategist said, markets are “once again selling off” despite a strong economy, decent earnings, and so‑far limited damage to consumer spending.
A few individual moves worth noting:
· GameStop (GME) dropped about 10%. It made an unsolicited 125 a share (a 20% premium). GameStop already owns about 5% of eBay and has a $20 billion debt commitment from TD Securities to help fund the deal. eBay shares rose about 5%.
· GameStop (GME) dropped about 10%. It made an unsolicited bid 125 a share (a 20% premium). GameStop already owns about 5% of eBay and has a $20 billion debt commitment from TD Securities to help fund the deal. eBay shares rose about 5%.
· Norwegian Cruise Line slid 8.6% after its full‑year outlook missed expectations, citing geopolitical headwinds and softer demand.
· Berkshire Hathaway (A and B shares) gave up early gains to finish about 1% lower. That happened even though quarterly operating earnings rose 18% in Greg Abel’s first report as CEO. Berkshire’s cash pile hit a record $397.38 billion – which tells me they’re struggling to find attractive opportunities that fit their value discipline.
Bottom line: Despite today’s pullback, the S&P 500 is still up about 5% year‑to‑date, on top of an 86% gain over the prior three years. That’s a strong starting point. But the energy shock and geopolitical noise aren’t going away quickly. I’m not panicking, obviously, but starting three new portfolios in a market that Warren Buffett on Saturday said most appropriately that he’s never seen such a market dominated by gamblers is a considerable challenge.