Portfolio Report
P5 in focus. From AI Revolution to AI Infrastructure & Data Center. Plus a new P6: AI & Robotics.
Monday, June 1, 2026 • Bill Cara, Licensed Fiduciary Investment Manager (Ret.)
Where I stand today
Today is a turning point. Alexei now runs the IT side of the database and the publishing system. That frees me up. I am moving from 5% analysis and 95% admin to 98% analysis and 2% admin. My job now is the work that matters to you: the research and the decisions.
I started five portfolios on January 2. I closed all but P4 in early February. On February 27, I went fully to cash. I did not want to trade into a war I could not watch closely. The war started the next day. Prices fell hard into mid-April. Then Q1 earnings came in strong and the bull phase returned.
I restarted P3 Durable Growth on May 1. It closed May up about 9% for the month. This month I bring back the rest. Each portfolio carries on from where I left it.
Today I focus on P5. It was my worst performer, so it earns the closest look. I will show what it did, what it taught me, and how I am rebuilding it. I will also introduce a new portfolio, P6.
P1, P2 and P3 — restart status
Here is where the three live portfolios stand. The trades below were confirmed at the open on May 18. I still need to recheck whether any later stop-loss orders filled. A full stop reconciliation will follow once I verify the fills.
|
Portfolio |
Mandate |
Holdings |
Cash now |
Last confirmed action |
|
P1 Cara 100 |
Top quality, diversified |
10 |
23.5% |
Added MSFT on a $416 stop-buy. CRM held. |
|
P2 Dow 30 Maverick |
Concentrated, educational |
5–6 |
49.4% |
Bought MSFT on a $416 stop-buy. |
|
P3 Durable Growth |
Age of Austerity |
9 |
18.1% |
Sold DECK. Fill was $96.10 on 44 shares. |
The posture has not changed. Cash first. Take part second. I do not chase a green day inside a weak tape. Any name that does not hold its INSTAT reading over time, or drifts toward its stop, comes out.
P5 looking back — the AI Revolution portfolio
P5 was the worst of the five. When I sold it in February, it was worth $95,827. That stung. But the honest test is what the same names would have done if I had held them.
So I ran the study. I kept each position at its original weight, including 26.82% cash. From the January 2nd cost basis to the May 29 close, the portfolio would have returned +12.97%. Stop loss orders would have cut the losses and increased the net gain. The lesson is plain. The names were sound. My timing was driven by my schedule, not by the tape.
|
Company (ticker) |
Cost |
May 29 |
Position |
Weight |
Contribution |
|
Vertiv (VRT) |
$162.01 |
$315.71 |
+94.9% |
7.7% |
+7.31% |
|
Quanta Services (PWR) |
$422.06 |
$711.73 |
+68.6% |
5.6% |
+3.84% |
|
Cisco (CSCO) |
$77.03 |
$120.42 |
+56.3% |
6.9% |
+3.89% |
|
Arista Networks (ANET) |
$131.03 |
$159.47 |
+21.7% |
6.9% |
+1.50% |
|
Snowflake (SNOW) |
$219.36 |
$255.55 |
+16.5% |
4.9% |
+0.81% |
|
Global X Robotics & AI (BOTZ) |
$36.23 |
$40.15 |
+10.8% |
6.4% |
+0.69% |
|
NextEra Energy (NEE) |
$80.28 |
$87.01 |
+8.4% |
6.2% |
+0.52% |
|
FirstEnergy (FE) |
$44.77 |
$46.39 |
+3.6% |
6.4% |
+0.23% |
|
Microsoft (MSFT) |
$483.62 |
$450.24 |
−6.9% |
6.5% |
−0.45% |
|
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) |
$566.36 |
$424.64 |
−25.0% |
6.5% |
−1.63% |
|
UiPath (PATH) |
$16.39 |
$11.72 |
−28.5% |
3.5% |
−1.00% |
|
Intuit (INTU) |
$662.42 |
$331.53 |
−50.0% |
5.5% |
−2.75% |
|
Cash (held) |
|
|
|
26.82% |
|
|
Total portfolio, if held to May 29 |
+12.97% |
||||
Cost is the January 2 price. May 29 is the last close in the study. Contribution is weight times position return. Cash is not shown in the rows. Adding it gives the +12.97% total.
Conclusion: P5 is now 100% in cash.
What the old names told me
Looking back, P5 was really two ideas wearing one coat. Half the names were the picks and shovels of AI. Wires, power, cooling, chips, data centers. The other half were robots and automation. Surgical robots, factory software, a robotics fund. They do not move for the same reasons. Mixing them blurred the signal.
So I split them. The infrastructure names anchor the new P5. The robotics and automation names seed a new P6. A few names fit neither theme and will not carry forward here. The table shows where each old holding goes, with its quality score and its INSTAT read.
|
Ticker |
Company |
Quality |
INSTAT read |
Where it goes |
|
VRT |
Vertiv |
76 |
Positive |
P5 — cooling & power |
|
ANET |
Arista Networks |
97 |
Mixed |
P5 — networking & optics |
|
CSCO |
Cisco |
50 |
Profound |
P5 — networking & optics |
|
PWR |
Quanta Services |
57 |
Mixed |
P5 — power & electrical |
|
MSFT |
Microsoft |
90 |
Profound |
P5 — hyperscaler (also in P1) |
|
SNOW |
Snowflake |
77 |
Positive |
P5 — data layer |
|
ISRG |
Intuitive Surgical |
99 |
Positive |
P6 — medical robotics |
|
PATH |
UiPath |
68 |
Positive |
P6 — automation software |
|
BOTZ |
Global X Robotics & AI |
— |
Positive |
P6 — robotics & AI ETF |
|
NEE |
NextEra Energy |
73 |
Positive |
Watch — power demand proxy |
|
FE |
FirstEnergy |
21 |
Negative |
Drop from these themes |
|
INTU |
Intuit |
86 |
Mixed |
Off-theme — sits in P1 |
Quality is the legacy Ziggma score from 0 to 100. I am replacing Ziggma at the source, so treat it as a fading guide. The INSTAT read is my own composite, and it is the one I trust.
The rebuild — P5 becomes AI Infrastructure & Data Center
P5 has a new name and a clear focus. AI Infrastructure & Data Center. This is the physical buildout behind AI. The chips, the servers, the wiring, the cooling, the power, and the buildings. It sits next to semiconductors, not inside them.
Below is the watchlist, grouped by job. These are the lead names I will track. The full list, including foreign and private names, lives in the billcara.com knowledge base. I have not bought anything yet. Entry follows the discipline in the last section.
|
Sub-theme |
What it is |
Lead names |
|
Chips & accelerators |
The brains that train and run AI. |
NVDA, AMD, AVGO, MRVL, ARM |
|
Servers & racks |
The machines that house the chips. |
SMCI, DELL, HPE, CLS |
|
Networking & optics |
The wiring that links them together. |
ANET, CSCO, CIEN, LITE, CRDO, ALAB |
|
Cooling & thermal |
Keeping hot racks from melting down. |
VRT, ETN, MOD, NVT |
|
Power & electrical |
The juice. UPS, switchgear, grid hookups. |
VRT, ETN, PWR, ABB, EME |
|
Colocation & REITs |
The buildings that rent out space. |
EQIX, DLR, AMT, GDS |
|
Hyperscalers |
The big buyers that drive demand. |
MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, META, ORCL |
|
Storage & memory |
Where the data sits. HBM, drives. |
MU, WDC, STX, SNDK |
The new portfolio — P6 AI & Robotics
P6 is new. AI & Robotics. This is where AI meets the physical world. Factory robots, warehouse robots, drones, surgical robots, self-driving systems, and the software that runs them. It is a higher-risk theme than P5, and I will size it that way.
Here is the P6 watchlist by job. Same rule as P5. Lead names only, full list on billcara.com, nothing bought yet.
|
Sub-theme |
What it is |
Lead names |
|
Factory robots |
Arms and machines that build things. |
ABBNY, ROK, TER, NOVT, ATS |
|
Warehouse robots |
Movers that run distribution centers. |
SYM, PATH, OCDDY |
|
Vision & sensing |
The eyes. Cameras and LiDAR. |
CGNX, AMBA, HSAI, AEVA |
|
Drones & aerial |
Flying robots. Heavy defense tilt. |
AVAV, KTOS, ONDS, RCAT |
|
Humanoid & medical |
Robots that walk or do surgery. |
TSLA, ISRG, PRCT, RBOT |
|
Components & actuation |
The muscles. Motors and gears. |
MOG.B, RRX |
|
Automation software |
The brains for office and plant work. |
PATH, NOW, MSFT, CRM, IBM |
|
Self-driving & mobility |
Robotaxis and driver-assist systems. |
NVDA, TSLA, GOOGL, MBLY, APTV |
|
Robotics & AI ETFs |
Baskets, for broad exposure. |
BOTZ, ROBO, ARKQ, ROBT, IRBO |
A few names show up in both portfolios. NVDA, MSFT and VRT are good examples. That is fine. I will not double-count them when I size total exposure. I track the overlap and report it.
How I will buy in
I will not rush. The names above are a watchlist, not a buy list. Each one has to earn its place. That is what the Four-Gate Funnel is for. A name passes through four gates before I commit cash.
• Gate 1. Quality. Is the business strong and well run?
• Gate 2. INSTAT timing. Is my composite score positive and improving?
• Gate 3. Confirmation. Do RSI and MACD agree?
• Gate 4. Chart. Does the Point & Figure chart back it up?
Only names that clear all four gates get bought. I will start with cash buffers in both P5 and P6, and add on strength, not weakness. You will see each trade here on the day it happens.
What is next
Three things change this month. First, these reports go daily. Second, the billcara.com beta is live, so the system now builds its own data and the old Ziggma dependency goes away. Third, I rebuild all five portfolios and launch P6.
Tomorrow I will start populating P5 and P6 as names clear the gates. I will also finish the stop reconciliation on P1, P2 and P3. If you have questions, the Forum is the place.
Bill Cara
Licensed Fiduciary Investment Manager (Ret.)
billcara.com • June 1, 2026