July 29, 2025
Fact or fiction: What drives the market?
Yesterday, I published “The Hidden Bias in Information: Why Critical Thinking Matters — Navigating the Man Behind the Curtain.” In that piece, I asked a simple but vital question: Have you ever stopped to think about where your news comes from? Every piece of information we consume — from financial analysis to mainstream reporting — carries bias at its source. The deeper question is this: Who controls the delivery? … We all know that the medium is the message, but the messenger also shapes the story — sometimes irresponsibly.
Case in Point: Trump’s “Historic” Trade Deal with Europe
Take President Trump’s latest claim. Yesterday, after a meeting and photo opportunity with Ursula von der Leyen, the President boasted that the US and EU had struck “the biggest trade deal yet,” including 15% tariffs on European imports, zero retaliatory tariffs in Europe on US goods, and a $600 billion commitment from Europe to invest in the US.
Legacy and social media outlets alike echoed his statement for hours as if it were fact. But not only was it not fact — it was nearly fiction.
Ursula von der Leyen is a prominent German politician currently serving as the President of the European Commission, the executive branch of the European Union. She leads the EU’s executive arm, setting political strategies and policies, while overseeing the implementation of EU laws. She is the coordinator of the 27 Commissioners of the EU member states. Her team proposes legislation and the EU budget, which requires approval by the European Parliament and Council, as do all trade deals.
So, Ms. von der Leyen is not a lawmaker. As the initiator of a legal or regulatory process, she is in a sense a spokesperson similar to how Jay Powell operates for the US Federal Reserve. Any binding trade deal would require votes, negotiations, and ratification by EU member states, none of which had occurred.
When Trump’s comments aired, my immediate thought was: “We’ve heard Trump’s side of it. What did von der Leyen actually say?” As expected, her statement painted a very different picture. She acknowledged discussions about lowering tariffs on US automobiles to 15% (not zero) but made no commitments to Trump’s grandiose claims. The $600 billion investment was nothing more than a conceptual framework for future talks by EU parliamentarians and later again with the US— a far cry from a signed agreement. Most importantly, she stressed that any deal would require ratification by EU states, effectively refuting Trump’s portrayal of a unilateral victory.
This episode underscores a seriously troubling reality: too many media outlets repeat political hyperbole without scrutiny, while audiences — including investors — are left misinformed.
What Investors Must Learn from This
Investors are especially vulnerable to distorted narratives. We are in the thick of earnings season, and we must exercise prudence over presumption. Corporate news releases are dense, data-rich documents. Yet, much of what filters through major financial outlets like CNBC gets reduced to sound bites, chyrons, and opinionated theatrics from the likes of Jim Cramer.
What happens next is predictable: these superficial hot-takes are amplified by social media and secondary news sources, often distorting the underlying facts. Market sentiment swings on these headlines, while the truth — buried in the SEC filings or official statements — is ignored.
A Practical Solution: AI as Your Fact Filter
Here’s my advice: ignore the noise. If you hold a stock or are considering one, start with the actual corporate filing — the 10-Q, the 8-K, or the official earnings release. Then, use a trusted AI tool like ChatGPT, Claude, or Mistral to dissect the filing.
A well-constructed prompt can give you, in a matter of seconds, a clear, fact-based analysis of:
- Revenues and growth rates
- Margins and cost structure
- Cash flow and debt levels
- Dividend policy and payout ratios
- Trends versus previous filings
You’ll receive a couple of pages of fact-grounded analysis that you can trust as the basis for your own opinions and decisions. By doing this, you bypass the media’s spin and avoid the sentiment-driven roller coaster that too often dictates short-term market moves.
The Payoff of Independent Thinking
Critical thinking isn’t optional in today’s environment — it’s a competitive advantage. By stripping away the bias, verifying claims, and going directly to the source, you will see measurable improvements in your decision-making.
Investors need facts, and those who rely on facts, not headlines, are the ones who consistently outperform.