"Yesterday in North American markets, there was no volume to speak of, but there were positive signs early on. The Crude Oil ($WTIC) price jumped +$6.62/bbl (+10.4%) to 70.53. $GOLD lifted +$30.50/oz to 757.30. Equity prices and bond prices followed."

Ahhh, Bill....as a consumer of petroleum products, I'm not sure I consider it a positive when oil increases. :)

[Bill Cara note:

Excellent point. Depending on what hat you are wearing -- trader, consumer, taxpayer, etc -- you have a different perspective. But if oil prices were to stabilize at 70 for an indefinite period, and the volatility in $USD trading to stabilize, you as a consumer or trader or taxpayer could start to plan your year ahead. That's the problem with the capital markets today. People don't know from day to day where prices are headed. My point today, and recently, is that until they are more confident, traders will not take risk, consumers will defer spending and taxpayers will continue to express their displeasure at the people and organizations that caused the market disruption in the first place. Regarding oil, I think a $70 price would be a stable price that all parties could accept for now. Try to look at my commentary in that perspective. Thanks.]

solars not showing good strength this am. some grumblings about proposition 7 in california. I am ready to sell. but no stop order entered. this can also be a bit of fishing for stop losses by specialists. lack of selling volume so far pre-market.

MT steel is down about 18% in premarket after earnings. They plan to cut production globally by 30% in the fourth quarter.

Considering they make up around 10% of global production that may take out 3% of total global supply.

MT trading down at $26 after closing above $31 last night. US Steel - X is trading down a bit in sympathy.

I'll be continuing to watch this sector closely as it seems to be a good barometer of overall market momentum.

My eyes are also peeled on CSCO today which reports earnings after the bell.

Bill:

Further on your point...at what point would oil have to hold where it would neither: 1) tank the economy, nor 2)inhibit alternative energy development and consumption conservation?

Learned my lesson (don't let profits turn into losses)

...have stops in place on X, PBR, BC, DELL (paper profit 41%, 48%, 28%, 7%) since buying last week "when others were afraid." Thanks to Bill and the community for all the great commentary and discourse. Have a great day!

MCM

Remember, remember the 5th of November...

Good morning.

There are NO Cara 100 Ratings Changes to report at this time.

personally, i would wait to sell on strength...i just haven't seen it yet..

Those were some pretty impressive gains. Since I'm still in recovery mode, it's becoming obvious I desperately need a portfolio manager.

MCM - "when others were afraid."

I was thinking of those who couldn't buy at the time.

NYUGrad, FWIW I voted against Prop 7 and Prop 10. These were touted as promoting energy independence, but in the case of 7 it was flawed and would have hurt many small producers of alternative energy. As for 10, it was sponsored by T. Boone Pickens and would have disproportionately benefited natural gas as an alternative auto fuel.

Long term, their defeat is good for the future of alternative energy in California.

I wonder if those standing in line at the polls yesterday noticed the Dow and are now preparing to jump aboard in their exuberance.

Here's a good article on Props 7/10 in this mornings SF Chron:

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/11/04/MND813Q18V.DTL&tsp=1

thx number2son. i dont really follow prop 7 or 10. but it seems to me the small selloff in solars this am might be a short term event. most likely triggering stop losses for cheaper shares. looking for volume to tell me the story.

Missouri passed proposition C yesterday.

The measure would require utilities to spend at least 2 percent of sales on buying energy from renewable sources. The share of such energy that the utilities must buy would increase to 15 percent by 2021 with at least 2 percent from solar energy.

Two steps forward, one step back. I never was much of a dancer.

Does anyone know what the chances for another vote are? In addition, what kind of time line and/or special interests will be involved?

chick

Like you, I am in awe of gains like Bill's in this market. I should, and likely will, turn everything over to him. Whew!

NYUgrad,

When you say "looking for volume to tell me the story" is it a volume to price relationship that informs your decision? Is so would you explain the relationship and what you are looking for before you buy?

Thanks

Too bad I didn't buy those puts yesterday. The crowd must have been expecting a rally today so we get the opposite.

Rob.

tango6 - Yea, it seems as the business picks up customers, the blog traffic becomes lighter. I wonder if I were a customer I might learn faster than attempting to learn through blogging.

Call me "homeskool", or "numbskull"

[Bill Cara note:

I think the blog traffic has been reduced because (i) people are nervous, (ii) history is happening and they are watching to see the direction it's likely to take us, (iii) I have shown a propensity to let's say 'directness' with some people in my efforts to have the blog continue to evolve along the community lines which I had intended for it, (iv) I have become more serious now that I have a new and deep responsibility to clients, (v) the community knows that I have less time to respond, so they are writing less. It's the quality of the Discourse that's important to me, and just a couple days ago I remarked that I found it very high.]

Hopefully it will turn positive into the close and I'll buy the puts then.

If the EU cuts rates that will strengthen the dollar and sink everything else.

Or is that what the crowd thinks too?

Rob.

yaya,

specifically i saw some low ball trades premarket on sol and about 30k shares traded when i made the comment.

So even though the stock was down 9% premarket i wasnt panicked. I just felt that the prop 7 news was actually not that bad as the news media was saying it was for alt energy and i also thought the street was gaming investors to get shares on the cheap.

Now that the markets opened, SOL is trading wide and loose. $8.15, 7.95, 8.30, 8.00, etc. the bids and ask are all over the place.

I am not convinced solars are broken here. my entire solar watch list is down about 8-9% on decent volume. but then i look at the indices and they too are down.

Not looking to buy, as i made my bet before the election. 4,100 shares of SOL.

I like Regions Financial today (RF)

stopped out for small gains SLW YRI holding GNLB & UAUA

disclosure: selectively bearish.

VIX/VXN RSI 7 day running about 30. My guess is the market chops around thru the day. I'll look to add to the ETF shorts (SDS,EEV,FXP,etc) around 3pm with a buy stop above the 3pm price.

long sil right here

IYR as only sector so far broke down out of it's bear flag channel, - 5% in 1st 1/2 hr. says something is not right with commercial real estate. It should reasonably never have been run up this far in the first place.

GLD seems to have broken down, that would be a pattern filure & sign of short term weakness.

SLV is sill hanging on, creeping up the lower tine of a bullish pitchfork.
It should continue up to remain short term bullish, no room here for any retracement at all.

Confirms my view of SLV being bullish while GLD not, still know of no fundamental reason why.

2nd - perhaps the strength you were looking for to sell into came yesterday? just a thought.

Re: energy independence. I just read an excellent book by Robert Bryce, "Gusher of Lies--the Dangerous Delusions of 'Energy Independence'" which I highly recommend as a counterpoint to this latest unquestioned idea. Rather than count on alternative energy sources to replace oil in the immediate future, we should be following the example of China and form cooperative agreements with oil producers, all of which the Chinese have done without waging war. Obama seems to be another believer in energy independence, but if Bryce is right and that is not possible in the next twenty or thirty years, Obama will at least be well-positioned ideologically to seek cooperative agreements with producers rather than trying to militarily capture oil reserves like Cheney-Bush. This is not to deny that alternative energy could represent a good investment. I notice nuclear seems to be going up.

pappdjavul,

I believe Bill has commented that silver bottoms before gold because speculative money comes into silver first. Doesn't make much sense to me, but it seems to be happening.

SA

RF screens well. RSI touch high. Good luck.

sov also looking hopeful

NoV. 3 *DYODD*
Canaccord Research top picks based on the following criteria:

1. Down more than 50% from the peak;
2. have at least two years of cash or funding availability on hand;
3. cash flow positive, or about to be cash flow positive; and
4. are large and liquid.

Diversified:
Stantec Inc. (STN : TSX | NYSE : |
Energy – Oil and Gas, Exploration and Development:
EnCana Corp. (ECA : TSX | NYSE : |
Fairborne Energy Ltd. (FEL : TSX : |
Energy – Oil and Gas, Exploration and Production:
Suncor Energy Inc. (SU : TSX : |
Nexen Inc. (NXY : TSX : |
Energy Oilfield Services:
Trinidad Drilling Ltd. (TDG : TSX : |
Energy: Royalty Trusts
Baytex Energy (BTE.UN : TSX : |
Metals and Mining – Agriculture:
Potash Corp. (POT : TSX | NYSE |
Metals and Mining -- Base Metals:
HudBay Minerals (HBM : TSX : |
Quadra Mining Ltd. (QUA : TSX : |
FNX Mining Company Inc. (FNX : TSX : |
Metals and Mining -- Precious Metals and Minerals:
Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC : NYSE : | K : TSX : |
Yamana Gold Inc. (AUY : NYSE : | YRI : TSX : |
IAMGOLD Corp. (IAG : NYSE : | IMG : TSX : |
REITs and Real Estate:
Boardwalk REIT (BEI.UN : TSX : |
Transportation and Infrastructure Support:
Jazz Air Income Fund (JAZ.UN : TSX : |
Finning International (FTT : TSX : |
SMALLER-CAP TOP PICKS:
Industrial Growth – Infrastructure:
Aecon Group Inc. (ARE : TSX : |
Sustainability – Energy and Power Technologies:
Carmanah (CMH : TSX : |
Technology – Communications – Communications Technology:
Sandvine Corp. (SVC : TSX : |

Bill & others,

Bill has mentioned in his daily report that the rate cutting of ECB tomorrow ought to weaken the Euro against USD. However, since many are expecting this rate cut, could there be a possibility that this has already been priced in?

Thanks,

teamonfuego- i'm looking for the 1500 point squeeze that signals an end to reticence...

"militarily capture oil reserves like Cheney-Bush."

Yep, using smoke and mirrors. They still probably think we don't know this. Gotta admire the Chinese that much more...

Nuclear - I agree. Problem is it doesn't work well for automobiles and competes with natural gas. There's something coming eventually, especially if nat gas catches on for transportation, which is likely...IMO

Now there's talk about clean coal; just can't see that in my radar, I smell a rat. Bio-fuels smell good and that's about all I think about them.

Anybody know why CHK is on such a tear? +10%! No news?

I sold all my pm's and miners yesterday on the strength, but I'm nibbling on today's weakness.
Up a few points on GFI/GG/GSS.
Also have been riding along nicely on SNDK for the last few sessions.

I'm playing this as a day trader, take it when you can get it and get to cash for another round.

I'm still holding a few longs UW but they have come back a looonggg way.
Anyone want some Dell?

CP,
Yes you are right! (brave vs. no cash) I was fully loaded for the plunge and the only reason I had some cash to deploy for those trades was liquidating a few losers and "starting from scratch." Still licking my wounds, but thanks to the guidance on this board, and lessons learned, I WILL recover! Unfortunately, they were all pretty small positions, but the best I could do. The other lesson is have some investment cash for opportunities like we have seen!!
Regards,
MCM

yaya, a post followup. sol is back to $8.45 range. i strongly believe the low price of $7.63 was a stop loss that was fished out by specialists.

this is why i no longer use them. just on a piece of paper next to my desk.

Bill:

Now that Obama has won the election, do you think he will give us the real financial facts of the country? He will have the capability to blame Bush on how bad things really were and how the Bush administration hid things. This would also help him so that he will be able to say things have improved. Will this not also be bad for the market?

Thanks ....

[Bill Cara note:

Obama covered what was necessary in his campaign. Now that he has won the prize, the finger-pointing will be left to the Congress I think. Hopefully Barack recruits the best possible people for the job. If he is conscious of the pitfalls of conflict of interest, I'm sure there will be the right kind of change. We have to remain optimistic until we see the same-old, same-old. There are real issues, which can only be faced by discussing the list of talking points I published here a few weeks ago. There needs to be a New Economic Order, not just in name but in fact. He has the tools at hand to do that. It will be the people he hires and the people in Congress who do that under his executive management. The market will respond accordingly.]

long sovereign sov

CHK - favorable article @ Bloomberg today about afinity with Obama policies. Finally back to even on this one following an avg. down - like it for the long haul

The JPY (proxy FXY) popped out of it's recent downtrend & is now consolidating above the channel. Not good for equities if it continues up.

FXE (the EUR) may have made a fakeout move up, it looks stretched.

SLV doing well so far.

SLW will be held back if equities go down (torn between the shepherd & the flock? ;-) ).

Craig - solar - What size panels should I order for my roof? I currently have a heatpump system and a 48kva electrical service.

chiken,

you are an early adaptor huh? i currently live in a condo so no solar for me yet. would love to be able to disconnect from pse&g for good.

Sharky,

I think your buddy ABK is building momentum

mcm - ain't that the truth! Lesson learned: Never go all-in when knives have yet to bounce a few times.

Luggie - Yea, I know about the Obama nat-gas thing but thought was already priced in cause it makes sense. Guess it wasn't re-cycled news after-all... Still waiting for green on my CHK (small position).

Google pulls out of search advertising deal w/Yahoo.

Boy, did they take advantage of Yang's ego on that one!

CP: I don't know, but I do know systems are sized to your usage (and location/conditions), just like a standard service. Heat pumps are great!

I'm waiting to see what kind of incentives will be coming.

I have seen a few TV programs where some (with major buckeros) have invested in a larger array and are selling power back into the grid...IOW, a net sellable gain over their usage.
I'm sure that is a positive for payback and future offsets or profits.

After reading Bill's comment on too soon for the long haul I took some profits on XOM and lightened up on GG. Sold DGP out totally and will wait on the sidelines until year end tax selling passes.

Short TM at $82.30

NYUgrad - I'd love to go solar! Thought about it deeply enough to perform some calculations and checked pricing on panels, batteries, inverters, etc. One study I performed indicates just under 3000 sq miles of PV are necessary to replace current US elec. capacity.

RIG - no room for disappointing those "analysts"!

Yang's still at YHOO? Amazing!

TED Spread down to 2.06. Interesting to note that this was the resistance high during earlier crises over the past year (Aug 07 and Mar 08).

Question regarding options pricing.

I've read that when VIX is high, time is right to write puts and calls since you get a bigger premium. And also that when VIX is high, it is unfavourable to buy options because as the VIX comes down, premium comes down making options possibly lose fast/more than it gains from underlying share price.

So my question is, VIX only seems to go up when markets do badly, i.e. measures fear, but when markets are rocketing, VIX drops. So assuming markets are trading in a range, would it be more profitable to buy puts than to buy calls? Since you buy puts into strength, when VIX is low and you pay less premium, and sell into weakness when VIX is high and you get more premium.

If this is the case, calls seem like a bit of a crapshoot as you buy into weakness and pay premium, and if market does well, you've got an uphill battle to make outsized gains to make up for declining volatility premium...

Thanks for any insight!

gold getting smacked down again here.

if we cant hold the $750 line i suspect we will see $660 in short order. gold should have been jumping stronger off the recent moves w/ the USD lower, but its taking violent stabs downwards. i dont understand this at all.

wonder if the ECB rate cuts are having some effect right here...

I have been waiting on gold to go down to $700 and buy DGP under $12. It got close this week, but rallied up for no reason other than the Euro jumping up 2.5% in one day. I hope that the rate cuts in England/Europe are big enough to make the US$ jump back where it was and bring gold back under $700. I think then the bulls can jump on board for the upwards rise in gold.

I own ABX,SLW,WGW,RBY,GG

I think that the miners might not fall with gold, so I will just hold on to them.

What is the total area of all the roofs on homes in the southwest I wonder? It's multiple millions X an average of something like 1200 Sq. ft. or so. Add Texas, Florida, New Mexico and you could do way more using existing space.

I fly frequently and into lots of cities in California/Arizona and there are miles of unused space covering homes that could use the extra shade/insulation and the power.

2008 will be remembered as historic! economically and politically...congratulations on electing a new president..Many problems to solve..Can't wait to see his new team.

AGRIUM (AGU)...UP $2.64 CDN

third quater results...

Earned $367 mill..$2.31 a share up from $ 51 mill or 38 cents a year earlier.Analysts were expecting $1.93 a share

revenue jumped to $ 3.1 billion from $ 989 mill.Analysts were expecting $2.22 billion

The company widens it outlook range for the second half to a range of $ 3.30 to $ 4.00 a share

dr.cosa - PM Miners doing well today IMO, considering the general action...

JesseSLC - re silver botttoming before gold

Thanks, didn't know that.
Do not always have time to read through the blog, though I do appreciate Mr. Cara's shall se say "reasoned bullishness" as a counterweight to the "dastardly debt debacle" scenario I currently see as primary.

Silver is not something I normally trade or have invested in as such, so have not studied the silver market especially before.
Though I do like the metal for jewelry work, etc.
My position in silver, besides SLW, is by the way only some assorted Swedish semi-antique stuff.

A measured move down for GLD would be to about 69.80, which would be what I am looking for - a reasonable retest of the recent lows in an ongoing bottoming / consolidation process.
This is not a trade recommendation by the way.

Craig - If these numbers were available it sure would help. I wonder why they aren't...

EWV buy stop limit 94.10/94.20 limit

thanks to poster who posted TM short.

trimming SSRI position.

SLV is on the verge of breaking down out of the bullish pitchfork, but is holding up extremely well considering how GLD & USO are dropping.

SLW is also holding up well, could go down to around 4.18 and still be short term bullish.

But if equities move down into the middle of next week, they may be sold off also in the end.

Anyone else think we trade lower until Friday's unemployment numbers, which everyone expects will be terrible? It's looking that way to me this morning.

stopped out of SLW at 4.14.

I get the feeling there's something going on that we're not privy to, but I cannot react to that which is unknown.

CP, you said "I'm still in recovery mode"
Me too! At least it feels like its getting better. Down for the year, 31%! but up from 10/15. Sold small position in CTSH this am in the money, holding ADBE, IBKR. On the fence about GG, down 6%-in way too early but, small pos, willing to hold OR willing to take hit. On the fence about HGU, up 17% small holding but thinking about selling though greed whispers wait, wait. Too heavy in the jr. pms, all under water but willing to hold. Thanks to this blog, I now research before I buy AND sell. Watching, waiting.
Comments welcomed.
Thanks to all who post.
from beautiful north puget sound

End of Month effect (EOM)

http://www.cxoadvisory.com/blog/external/blog7-20-06/

Can someone confirm that this is the Interactive brokers site that you are using and Bill has referenced

http://tinyurl.com/5pjuyq
I want to open an account with them.

[Bill Cara note:

www.interactivebrokers.com

I see from your IP address, you are American. Canadians who set up accounts with IB Canada actually only have their residence and account opening data verified and accepted in Canada. The trading platform is the same as IB US/Global. The problem for my company is that until I can obtain regulatory exemption from the industry rules and regulations, I cannot professionally advise Cdn accounts. To get approval, I require discretionary relief from 13 different jurisdictions. Getting SEC approval was relatively quick and painless, but the Cdn system is one that protects the industry and the regional politicians and not the client. I argued for a national regulator while giving testimony to the Senate Banking Committee hearings in 1998. One of the Senators scoffed at me, saying his province would never accept it. It will happen. This morning, the Stockbrokers' Club in Canada released the results of a poll of their members, and the results of over 100 people were over 94% in favor of an SEC counterpart in Canada.]

out of sil and sov small profit. today looking down.

bsi - EWV - what do you xpect, +5~8%?

College given grant for solar panel project
By J. Staton Hudson
A $51,750 grant from Pacific Power’s Blue Sky renewable energy program was awarded to Whitman recently to support the college’s proposed photo-voltaic solar array. The $180,000 project would place 20 solar panels above Jewett hall and be capable of supplying the college with 23 KW of electricity.

According to geology and environmental studies professor Bob Carson, the system would be capable of supplying about eight average American houses with electricity and would make a substantial dent in Whitman’s energy costs.

The college would save approximately $1600 per year at current electricity rates, according to Jed Schwendiman, associate to the president. However, factoring in a typical rate increase of about five percent every year, this investment could mean even bigger savings for the college in the future. Over the next five years, said Schwendiman, the college could expect to save around $18,000.

The system would also serve as an educational resource for Whitman students. The solar array would be linked to a monitoring station in the Hall of Science atrium next to the current weather, seismic and stream flow station. Students would be able to monitor the output of the system and track energy savings.

Jump-starting the campaign to bring the solar array to Whitman is the student organization, Campus Climate Challenge. Headed by co-presidents Bailey Arend and Gary Wang, the organization hopes to make the college carbon-neutral.

“Our goal is to make sure that there are no net carbon emissions from the college,” said Wang, “and to mobilize the surrounding community to take action on global warming. It’s a lofty goal but we’ve made substantial progress in the last few years.”

According to Wang, Campus Climate Challenge jumped on-board with the solar array project because it fit in with their goals for the college.

“The solar array project is important because it represents a tangible example of alternative energy for the college,” said Wang. “From a public relations standpoint, it proves that Whitman College is among the leaders regionally and nationally in terms of its commitment to environmental responsibility and sustainable development.”

In the past two years, the organization has raised over $28, 000 from parents and faculty through two letter-writing campaigns. Part of this money went to purchasing carbon off-sets in order to reduce the college’s carbon contribution; the other went towards funding the solar array.

Wang and Arend also helped Whitman write the grant application to the Pacific Power Blue Sky renewable energy program, resulting in the $51, 750 grant.

The Blue Sky program offered by Pacific Power allows consumers to use clean, wind energy instead of traditional energy off the grid. Energy from the Blue Sky program is more expensive than regular energy; however, Pacific Power invests this money in alternative energy projects around the area. This year, Pacific Power offered $100, 000 in grants to fund renewable energy projects in Washington state.

Whitman received a substantial portion of this grant money because of its commitment to alternative energy demonstrated by the proposed solar panel array. The photo-voltaic solar panels Whitman would be using convert sunlight into energy by freeing loose electrons from silicon atoms housed in the panels. These electrons flow from the solar cells to a load or battery, where the energy is stored. About 10-15 percent of the sunlight that strikes the solar panels is converted into energy.

The photo-voltaire solar array is currently scheduled to be put up this summer.

*********************************************
A little quick math says 20 panels for eight homes is 2.5 panels at a cost of $22,500 per home on this scale w/o factoring in grants etc.

bsi87 - Good doc, thank you.

proudPapa- re options pricing.

It does seem unreasonable at first glance that sharp moves down will increase the option "volatility", whereas sharp moves up seem to decrease it, at least after a period of time.

My theory as to why is that lots of funds and other investors engage in selling covered calls to add some income, which drives down the option premium, as the sellers take over.

Relatively few probably engage in selling covered puts on a regular basis, that would likely be only some hedge funds that are short and more advanced private investors.

Perhaps Mr. Cara could confirm or deny this idea.

Also buying calls at bottoms when the premium is high is often not so great an idea, unless you go deeply ITM where there is less premium, or else finance them by selling naked puts.

Buying calls is best after long flat consolidations, when premium is low & - of course - just before a bull move starts.

re:EWV

10 day ATR is 13+. 26 pts minimum. Resistance at 130.

If it gets overbought, EWV:IEF approaching rsi 70 on 7 day, I'll cut it loose.

Chickenpookie,

miners not holding up well,
they are falling along w/ the market, and the GDX is down somewhat more than the SP.

gold as i had said before seemed like it would fall hard if it did fall through $750. that price point was a critical area of support imho. its failed and if gold moves back towards $700, do you really think it will hold that line even with the USD falilng? imagine what will happen once the euro zone cuts rates and announces new weakness and problems.

it seems that the relationship hasnt changed at all w/ gold stocks falling along w/ the market not as moved by gold itself.

we talk about future problems and weakness and gold continues to do the opposite of the "these government interventions will be inflationary to gold" notions. gold is in a nasty downtrend period. it could always break out and explode as it did yesterday but 1 day a new trend does not make.

until something concrete appears to suggest gold moving up strong, and shares in any fashion following im not buying back in.

i dont like having to speak ill of gold but reality has dawned on me that so much of what we have been fed for the past few years has been so wrong and continues to be wrong.

so people talking about $700 being a good point to jump in may be missing whats actually happening as gold continues to carve out a down trend. the Kitco/321gold articles continue to spout the same nonsense that gold will explode soon. they have been saying it for months as gold has fallen and failed to breach its mar/08 high.

if all these government interventions will be inflationary and make gold run up, why hasnt it happened yet? in fact if these things take time, why does gold continue to move down week to week despite some USD weakness occuring?

gold could move up $170 from here and only be back to where it was about 1.5 months ago. would htat move be indicative of the inflationary effects of all this money occuring or just a retracement of golds past move? not only did most of us and most of the gold community get the recent events totally wrong, they may make a second critical error is patting themselves on the back to soon should gold return to $920 in short order, thinking it validates their inflation theory when we have no real proof its not just a retracement of recent moves.

disclosure:

long miners partial position long term.
short gold the metal partial position short term.

Reference alternative energies

Last summer, the local Chicago PBS television station had a piece on a neighborhood house supported by wind energy. The owner had a small cylinder type turbine on his roof which was not obtrusive with the local enviornment. It resulted in a surplus and I think he sells some of the generated electricity back to the power company. Memory says the cost was 20-30K.

Don't have link, just from memory. Will check later if anyone interested.

craig,

that is prob cheaper than buying a hybrid car, and i bet it would save consumers more as most car purchases involve a trade in which 99% loses money for the driver. and as tech gets better the roi should only get better for consumers i hope.

de.cosa - "should gold return to $920 in short order"

If this were to occur out of some stroke of luck, I'd like to sell in preparation for a re-load! It sure would help my underwater 50% gold position...

I'm humbled, your observations certainly have a ring of sanity.

Currently my GG is up ever-so-slightly on the day...

This market inflicts serious question to my personal sanity, so please don't hold any pea-brained ideas I might express against me...

My old target for USO is still in play it seems -

the 2006 low @ 42.56.

that's -20% down from here.

let's hope that holds.

Chickenpookie,

not at all, im just giving out what im thinking,
and how my thoughts on things have changed somewhat.

i have probally been repeating myself, thought its just that im seeing hte same patterns in many of the people who post here about gold and using concepts to support their ideas that have been proven wrong. even more so w/ gold mining stocks.

ive been actively writing letters to newsletter writers just to make my case about how i felt they got things wrong the past while, its not that i think they care what some random perosn has to say, and its to throw things in their face,
its simply a case of asking the question:

your calls for gold and gold stocks were wrong, utterly wrong in the current credit crisis. but you call for a rise in gold using the same logic that was proven wrong. it says to me no lessons have been learnt here.

yes im sure things will be inflationary at some point, but most writers have been clamouring about inflation for a few years and it hasnt resulted in a holdable gain in the POG, instead its been a few breif spikes upward before a dramatic fall downward. that is not indicative of runaway inflation any more than oil at $147 was indicative of peak oil. it may happen eventually but those moves were but a memory now that we have been cut down to size.

----------------

long gold for the long term yes,
but i dont fool myself anymore with fantasies of hyper inflation sending gold and gold shares dramatically higher anymore than teh broad makret moves which are in control of hte shares at hte moment. does anyone really believe gold shares will run super high while the market runs down should gold trade to $950?

this sounds stupid but I think there's a high probability of a crash. My bat radar is tingling.

full disclosure: selectively bearish but not near bearish enough.

If DJIA trades below 9319, that means yesterday's "rally" is all given back.

We'll see.

Sold GS $80 puts at $3.65 that I bought at $3.35. Sold SRS at $120 purchased at 119 avg. Still holding on to SLW puts and TM puts and looking to add more TM puts. I believe that company is very overvalued.

RE: Anybody know why CHK is on such a tear? +10%! No news?

Good question...I stopped at $25 for a quick profit...small # of shares.

I wonder along with the GG action today what is going on?

bsi87:

I thought it was "spidey sense" that tingled?

pappdjavul,

Hope you're wrong on USO. That would not bode well for TSX.

Glad I got stopped out of WAG & CNR last week. Seems like the hangover from last night's party is kicking in.

I think once an actual recovery happens, we will see some upward mobility in the General. Right now GE is just hobbling around...

Bats/spiders, whatever. LOL

there goes 9319. So much for that.

Now I have to wait for some capitulation plays.

Chesapeake Energy Corp. (CHK:$24.85,00$1.90,008.28%) reported adjusted earnings results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2008. The company said that it made $486 million, or 85 cents a share, for the quarter ended Sept. 30, compared with $346.3 million, or 72 cents per share, a year ago. The company said adjusted third-quarter earnings rose 47% on rising natural gas production. The company posted a gain of $2.8 billion from hedges on gas, oil and interest rates bringing the company's total profit to $3.3 billion, or $5.61 per share.

"The college would save approximately $1600 per year at current electricity rates, according to Jed Schwendiman, associate to the president. However, factoring in a typical rate increase of about five percent every year, this investment could mean even bigger savings for the college in the future. Over the next five years, said Schwendiman, the college could expect to save around $18,000."

Wouldn't it be possible to buy an $180k energy hedge and maybe outperform those savings? I parked my gas-guzzler a year ago and bought a small used car (2x better mileage) which since has paid for itself. It's my "free" car. I don't typically drive more than 6k mi./yr. but managed 10k this past year. The mice just love their new home in my expensive behemoth which cost me more than those solar panels...

The current set-up for gold and silver, especially the shares, has never been better in years...

You can see that at the moment, the commercials have dramatically cut their short positions and the large traders their long positions to levels where significant market bottoms have previously taken place.

The set-up for silver is even more bullish. In fact, it's as bullish it's been for five years or more.

We have also seen some very nice moves in some of the silver companies such as Silver Wheaton (NYSE:SLW) and First Majestic (TSE:FR) with some of them up almost 100% from their lows of last week, which bodes well.

Seasonally, October is a time to sell gold and this year was no exception. But late October, early November is a good time to buy back, as you will usually get some kind of rally into the year end and often into Spring.

Since 2007, gold and silver have outperformed gold and silver stocks. In other words, you'd have been better off owning the metal. But the ratio of the metals to the miners has reached extreme levels. In fact, the most extreme levels since 2000-01, at the very bottom of the market. This extremity suggests we could be entering a period when stocks will outperform the metals.

http://tinyurl.com/56e343

Dr C

if POG gains $100 from here, I'll be even, but that's OK. It's just a % of the portfolio. I'll buy or sell to increase/decrease the ratio but I will always have some. Silver too.

Chickenpookie,

I know of a company making aesthetically appealing building integrated Volta voltaic roofing tiles for flat or low slope roofing. They are called Open energy and www.openenergycorp.com.

They are worth a look and besides, I believe they install solar communities...with no upfront cost to the residential customer and they have the best efficiency and guarantees in the industry. I cannot say what the cost if any would be to a single roof customer however...please look them up...thanks.

bsi87

good call on SDS/TWM yesterday...sure paying off today.

I have 800 for resistance and 640 for support on gold. full disclosure: have some SSRI/SIL.

Pookie an blogglob:

I think a company out of MD (Edison Solar?) does the same.

Prieur didn't post today??

Sure! But you know, you're dealing with people and your money.....and you have to keep an eye on hedges, they sometimes go against you.
Say all your neighbors don't buy a hedge but instead invest and they drive the cost of energy so low it wipes out your hedge?

On the other hand the sun comes up everyday, no muss, no fuss. The panels last for longer than your house, so it's essentially no muss, no fuss for the duration, on something that you can trust.
If the sun doesn't come up then we have a lot bigger things to worry about.

CHK up on rumor of buyout by BP (article link to Bloomberg)
http://tinyurl.com/55wo6r

Rumor earlier today (now discredited) re:YHOO buyout by MSFT makes for an interesting daily chart, but still up 5%.

Sorry, I messed up the link.
CHK buyout rumor
http://tinyurl.com/6omoj4

re:SDS/TWM

thanks. I use VIX/VXN/IEF vs indices, stocks,ETF's to measure risk/overbought/oversold.

Oct 27/28, the INDU:VIX ratio was approaching RSI 7 day of 30. It was a time to get long but many posters were urging caution. Yesterday the INDU:IEF was already approaching RSI 7 day of 70. Risk was increasing so I started selling long positions and started opening short positions.
Also many indices/etfs were bumping against 50 DEMA's.

FWIW.

Let me preface what I'm about to say that in no way am I attempting to "corner" Bill Cara, or get in a discussion regarding the interpretation of his words, nor compare what he has put forth free of charge for all his readers.

This is nothing but a simple request for clarification.

In today's comments, Bill Cara said this:

"Although I believe it was important in recent weeks to start looking at the glass as being half full, it is not yet the time to buy with a view to holding for the long-term."

Bill, are you less bullish than you were 1 month ago ? Not trying to read anything into your comments so I'm seeking further clarification.

Are you saying this is more of a short term trader's market for the interim period ?

The reason I ask this is because people like Grym have already taken action earlier today to sell certain stocks based on this commentary; which of course is his own decision.

TIA

[Bill Cara note:

Excellent question. I only wish I could have gotten to it 4 to 6 hours earlier.

At tops and bottoms of long-term market cycles, there is usually significantly more volatility. Enhanced volatility simply means you you are facing greater risk and the best way to manage risk is by shortening the time horizon on your trades and tighten your stops. You start thinking hours, days and weeks instead of weeks, months and years. For those who use stops, you may need to go to 4% rather than 8% to 12%, for instance. Many of us here refer to it as the need to day trade, but what we mean by that is the need we have to control risk. So at what I believe is the top of a market cycle, when I start to see the glass as half-empty, I become a quicker seller than buyer because I think there is a greater risk of subsequent lower highs and lower lows. The opposite is at what I believe a market cycle low where I become a quicker buyer than seller. But, I am first and foremost a trader, so I am both a buyer and a seller. I call it the dance. At tops and bottoms of the long-cycle I'm doing the quick-step whether I want to or not. The rest of the time I am doing a fox trot. In market terms, at the bottom I continue to write puts versus at the top where I would be writing calls. I tend to write because when markets are going through cycle tops and bottoms, when risk is greatest, you need to sell that risk to somebody else. As the cyclic phase becomes more pronounced bullish, I would consider buying calls and when it becomes pronounced bearish, I would consider buying puts. Why, because when wealth is clearly being built or destroyed, that's the time I need to take more risk in my decisions. It's at times at tops and bottoms when I have to reduce the risk that I am faced with. I'm happy that using my commentary to help him think through the shifting markets early today that Grym sold his long positions, ie, if he is an active trader (I wouldn't know). I sensed that gains would be given back today and I was hoping that this community would consider tighter stops if they didn't want to sell. After I wrote my piece, the US equity market plunged between -5.1% and -5.5%, so my analysis was right. I said that gold was taking a dumper at 7am and the $USD was rallying, which at these times often means money is coming back into the safe-haven of the US. I could see the European market not doing well, and the European banks right across the region reporting terrible losses, which would shake people's confidence. Capital that flees risk also comes out of energy and precious metals, and I just felt it was ready to happen. I saw a million person crowd in tears last night and said, these are proud people; they are going to bring money home to help get America going again. I hadn't seen any volume in markets that is needed to excite the Bull, and I talked about that in terms of ok we had a burst of higher prices but where's the beef (Bull)? Capitalization grows in Bull markets, but capitalization is affected by price times volume, and I said that volume was missing, so I thought the growth was temporary. In my morning squawk box call with the traders I said that this volatility could add +15% to a stock (or industry group) one day and take it away the next. I don't see that kind of thing happen when volume is very high. At those times, a small rally or pull-back usually is sustained because the traders are committed. You know the expression: in for a dime in for a dollar? Today there's no commitment to put up that dollar. There's no commitment these days to much of anything (which is not the definition of a Bear), so getting back to risk management, after a bit of a rally, if I stay long, I'm admitting to myself that I want to hold the risk that smart people won't. I don't do that. I hope that explains my approach. I was a little hard on you a few days back, but really whenever I see somebody who is well-intentioned and plain-spoken, I welcome the chance to talk. I just need the time.]

nemo

RE: Prieur

As a rule, I think he only posts here on Monday mornings.

Dr. Cosa,

I share your frustration with the precious metal market. Some thoughts I have had lately are based on the concepts 2nd_Ave shares here often. First, is to look at your own emotions and realize that many others are feeling the same thing, and that to some extent that is exactly what the market wants us to feel. On Oct. 27 when the market bottomed, I was so scared and discouraged that there was no way I could put my last little bit of available cash to work for fear that my PM investments would never see the light of day. Market beat me that day, that was the best time to buy. I have no thousand percent gains that I can claim for trading that bottom. Just lost opportunity and defeat from my own fear emotion.

I keep thinking back to Bill’s call to sell Goldcorp in march (I believe) of this year when it was trading in the low 40’s. For months, it looked as if that call was questionable as GG peaked in July around 52. Obviously, today we can see what a great call that was. My point is that at that time Bill assessed the market conditions and determined that GG was overvalued and current market conditions suggested weakness in GG sometime in the future. He, as well as all of us, watched for 4 or 5 months until his idea came to fruition. Had we shorted GG in March that time period would have been agonizing. Today, we see things in the market that suggest inflation is coming. The money supply is expanding dramatically and this is always inflationary. I believe that many of the things the “gold bugs” claim are likely to happen, just not this week or next. This inflationary event will take time to unfold, maybe 6 months, year or two, nobody really knows. But logically, when the data is analyzed, there is a strong indication that inflation is coming and the precious metal sector will do well. Picking the exact day, week or month of the turn may be more difficult.
I think the market term for folks like us is “trapped bulls”. I don’t know this for sure, but I suspect that the vicious bear is not going to let us trapped bulls get away so easily with a monster rally in 2-4 weeks that let us all get out at break even and never have to worry again about our PM investments. Rather, I have been trying to prepare myself psychologically for a long road to recovery. I’ve never seen a bear like the current PM/commodity market. I understand now why a down market is called a bear and how brutal it can be. I’ve heard/read that a bear market will devour bulls until none are left standing, and then the new bull can begin. I am not sure what lies ahead from this bear and as much as I want some relief I believe it would be foolish on my part to think it will be coming soon. The extreme frustration you are experiencing now is exactly what the bear wants, and is probably willing to wait until it eats us up. I hope to emerge someday at the other end of the tunnel and suspect that I will be much wiser and more cautious with regards to my investments in the future.

For me, today, the only thing that makes sense is to be patient, excruciating as that may be.

I just bought some GG puts with a 20 strike.

Betting on dollar strength.

Rob.

dr. cosa: As a fellow Canadian I have a somewhat different perspective on the price of gold. It is performing in line with my expectations, which is to preserve purchasing power in the long run. I consider short term movements as "noise", and of no significance to me, other than possible short term trading opportunities.

For instance, two years ago gold was trading for about $550 in Canadian dollars. A year ago it was at about $750. Now it is at about $850, up about 55% from two years ago. Plug $gold:$cdw into Stockcharts weekly charts and tell me what you don't like about that chart.

Now, if my junior miners' charts looked like that I would be one happy camper ;-)

ToddinFL,

Bill's comment this AM was just reinforcement of what I was already 90% decided on. My biggest doubt has to do with the ability of the US to move the short term treasuries to long term. I can't believe anyone will be willing to loan us at any price.

I realize this is an economy issue, but I certainly would not be quick to do business with someone whose trust factor is so low as ours right now.

The Chinese and Japanese have a wide selection of better places to put their money. It may be they'll choose stock in US companies. (When I see that I'll be willing to do the same.) In the mean time I don't feel the need to rush into any stocks.

If I am wrong, it is MY own decision and no fault of Bill's recent comment or previous bullish call. I'm too old to go for even the best long term bargains unless they are paying a great dividend while on the comeback trail.

I have a bunch of gains taken early this year to balance against for tax purposes.

just got back from lunch meeting. who pressed the sell button?

VT which is the Vanguard Total World Market ETF is showing a bearish engulfing pattern.

Full disclosure:selectively bearish.

Grym said:

"I can't believe anyone will be willing to loan us at any price."

IMO, there will be those who loan to us, but the risk premium (interest rates) will be considerably higher for the longer term horizons.

"longer TIME horizons."

CAT - Always wanted to own this one and finally pulled the trigger today @ ~41.60, new project in Algeria using primarily Cat equip, plue Obama infrastructure comments - oh well we'll see, but the yield ~4& eases the pain. Missed prime accumulation zone though. Happy Trading

Luggie,

what indicator(s) did u use to make your decision re CAT?

ran a scan of bear ETF's

EEV, SIJ, and SKF look the most promising for the 3PM buy. EWV looks good as well.

full disclosure: long EEV and EWV.

calculating the 10 day ATR and will use that * 5% to determine the buy stop above the 3PM price.

HI bsi - Not too much science for me - way off recent highs, good p/e, yield, earnings estimates my management support good 2009 performance, but did look at rsi's & S&p reports. Happy Trading

re:CAT

GL with that.

ToddinFL

Would like to ask you something
qt.cara[at]gmail[dot]com

With the 10 year U.S. Treasury bond yield going from 3.91% on Tue. morning down to ~3.72 this morning the 30 year mortgage (no points) went down from 6.375% to 6.0% today. HT

Is tck still worth purchasing at this point?

For risk takers WGW moving up since 10/31.
Disclosure: Only 0.19 to go and I break even.

TCK. A good time to re-load? Also maybe QUA.to?

bsi. These have had quite a run, how do you determine probability the selloff will continue and therefore this afternoon a good entry?

Photo
I'm no technical guy, but this is quite a retracement. I'm looking hard at a little this afternoon. although, low is under $11 not that long ago.

wavesmash - re USO,

I use fibs a lot for major / long term targets.

When something doing a retracement goes past about the 70% mark, it will usually go all the way and do 100%.
You just don't have any idea for "when" from the fibs alone.
So I've had this target for it since it gapped down below 64 in Oct.
This is not rocket science, just one tool.

bsi87 - crash?

I see the markets going down into the middle of next week - how far down I have no idea.
1. the middle of the week before opex is often a shakeout/turnaround time.
2 there is the 15/11 big meeting to save the world.

bsi: RE your shorts comment yesterday. Is this next week coming early?

Sounds like Venezuela has said it will take control of Crystallex KRY

UPDATE 1-Venezuela says to control Crystallex gold mine
Wed Nov 5, 2008 1:53pm EST

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN0531130420081105

(Adds ministry comment, background)

CARACAS, Nov 5 (Reuters) - Venezuela will take over Canadian miner Crystallex's (KRY.TO: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) Las Cristinas gold project, one of Latin America's largest, the latest move by President Hugo Chavez to bring key industries into the hands of the state.

Venezuela's mining ministry said the government aimed to start up the mine next year.

"This mine will be recovered and will be operated under state administration," the ministry said in a statement.

Crystallex, which operates the project under a contract, has waited for years for permission to begin mining the Las Cristinas deposit, located in a huge forest reserve in southeastern Venezuela.

Socialist Chavez has nationalized large swaths of Venezuela's economy, including energy, telecoms and steel companies. (Reporting by Frank Jack Daniel; Editing by Christian Wiessner)

Grym - Perhaps if foreign companies want to invest in US, they're likely to buy entire companies as opposed to stock. Currently they're waiting for the auction to start, planning what they'll do once they've bought, and sizing up the possibility of friction from the Obama administration.

WC,

10 day ATR for EEV,SIJ,and SKF are 24,13,and 19. If they had achieved moves of that size in the AM, I would be less inclined to put a trade on. I do want to look at the RSI before I do put the buy stop on.

Keep in mind the VIX/VXN/IEF show that indices were approaching or near overbought levels yesterday.

If I'd been a freaking genius, I'd loaded the wagon then.

re:crash

Well, let's see. The Talking Heads got all jazzed yesterday when the mkts rallied 300. Today, they're very casual about it. The big boys rallied the markets about the time IRA/end of month investments are made. I could see some sort of a bottom next week.

We'll know in the fullness of time.

I certainly hope that CAD vs. Yen investors have appropriate stops in.

It looks like the bear market is still with us, and that the CAD rebound is taking a break today.

Sad end to the KRY story.

If CAD goes down will HGU benefit?

KRY

I'd wondered how Chavez might seek to replace the declining oil revenues and now it turns out the prognostications of some posts from months ago comes to pass.

WGW/WGI

Share repurchase plan announced. Sweet! I certainly felt it had been excessively beaten up in recent weeks, but kept getting proven wrong when I thought it couldn't go lower. Nice to read some promising news and see some positive price movement!

Re: Crash

If we finish at this level, the closing candle will be baerish. Besides, the chart look very lame today. BUT - Potential BOE & ECB rate cut over-night. CSCO reports after the close. It could go either way.

Just my 2-cent.

shark_attack
KRY is sad but it's demise is fitting given the lunatic running the country. Despots and corrupt country's always get their pound of flesh, OPM and technical know how are hijacked regularily theses days.

JesseSLC- when trading with a LT horizon my frame of mind is very different than it is when day trading...

when i was in grade school, my Dad insisted on taking the family camping every summer, and always to a different part of the US...what I recall best were the long stretches of highway between landmarks, and then the abrupt changes in elevation and landscape as we approached our destinations...that, to me, is how LT targets are reached-> when you start falling asleep, the topography changes, and the sights you've been waiting for unfold all too fast...the secret (if there is one) is to enjoy the long stretches, which I eventually learned to do, letting my mind wander while watching the sky, the clouds, the farms, the small towns...as an adult, I now enjoy the drives more than the destinations...

thx for the comments guys re gold.

right now i see gold is basing around the $740 level. theres a bull and a bear case.

after price drops gold's basing action has led to dramatic price falls, typically early in the morning.

but, considering that gold had a very sudden move up the past few days the POG is well above mondays price, and the shares are holding up well here into the market close compared to the broad market.

because a sea change in the ratio of miners vs. POG may be in the making, these occurances while rare the last while may be a marker of better days ahead for the goldies. but its too short term to really say.

rate cuts tomorow by the ECB/BOE causing a dump in gold will be paradoxical IMHO considering people were largely expecting them. the USD is at least not carving out new highs and i dont get the feeling rate cuts aborad will boost the USD much.

if gold is poised to move higher, theres nothing in the tea-leaves saying so just yet. but the shares moving higher against the market would mark the shift in my current bearish thinking.

good luck,

NBD-T

I haven't fared well by this stock after buying some a couple of months ago, (go figure!). I guess after behaving like it was recession-proof or already price-adjusted, the economic worries have taken their toll on it. Crazy situation resulting - 26% dividend yield! One would have to assume a dividend cut is in the near future, but this may be one helluva value purchase at some point. They could slash the dividend by 75% and it would still be a nice payout.

Re: HGU.TO

I assumed that a CAD decline along with a collapse with the oil price would yield returns in the gold sector, but this has not been the case.

I may be too early on my assessment as of yet, and that gold would have to definitively stand out from the commodities trade and currency moves. Hedge funds are clinging to the oil trade in the hopes of a global re-flation, but they're just creating a slick as they sink under the waves.

It remains an open question whether gold prices will remain firm, considering the low yield environment and the propensity of the Yen to sell off, and yet we're seeing bullion spot price declines in a seriously impaired credit market.

This whole rally seemed suspicious...of course the V-bottom makes sense as a relief rally, but when I see CHRW (trucking) rallying as we rocket into a severe economic downturn, I suspect that Mr Moral Hazard and HBB team have used the US Taxpayers dollars to buy the market--thus giving McCain a chance---the turnaround "maverick" didn't quite work out, nor did the use of our tax money. Low volumes, and not much "supply"--nobody wanted to sell their stocks at this near capitulation stage. Makes it easy for low volume funds to drive market up, me thinks.

out of SOL earlier at 7.36. 2 cent loss. dont like the action. humbling experience.

EEV, SIJ, FXP, EWV were my PM picks.

Here's a rookie question for anyone:

assuming it can be done, does it make sense to short the SSO as opposed to buying the SDS.

just looking at the price of each option.

SLV didn't make it past 10.50, and has now moved sideways outside the bullish pitchfork, which is no longer in play.
It would need to get past 11 at least to look bullish for real.

Don't think it can move up when GLD & everything else are going down, best to hope for is it just holds up decently. Same for SLW.

CP,

I saw a Chinese businessman interviewed this spring who said his company has been buying just under 5% ownership in a large number of US businesses. Anything less than 5% does not require the same reporting and he wanted to avoid this.

This is an option I consider to be a much better deal now than back then, Why loan money even at a double digit rate if you can buy a large slice of a company with good growth prospects at a discount?

Our bonds will only be tradable for profit if we get a massive deflationary cycle and they already have a bunch.

Just to get a bit more confusing (I'm in unknown territory here, so any help is appreciated.) would a lack of debt buyers cause a deflationary situation in the US?

Anyone trading options on the ultrashort & ultralong ETFs - are the spreads always this high betw ask & bid ($1 plus)?

FLR - capitulating? Earning report after market today.

re:GS

Gotta look at it again but I see 84 as being attractive buying point. No positions. As always, do your own homework.

c

Marubozu

8^}>

Recently went to pick up a few groceries at the grocer's and they would not accept credit cards and were cash only for the day. No biggie, unless they're cash poor and can't get letters of credit for shipping groceries.

So I looked up the company and found it was bought out, and the owner which took the grocer private has a curious trend chart counter to the fall in stocks:

http://tinyurl.com/6a6evw

bsi87
GS under 70 may be good price

re:GS

Nope.

FLR - Oops, typo. sorry. Earning tomorrow after close.

re:GS

It's in a symmetrical triangle with support around 87-88. If that breaks significantly (with volume), it'd open GS to 60 bucks.

On the other hand, Nov opts expiration is 105, Dec is 100.

Whichever of you guys are buying all those USD's, I wish you'd stop the nonsense.

bsi87
WFC is raiging 10B
wait for C/JPM/GS
they all are dogs

manx, re: NBD-T

Had a quick look at their quarterly statement, and they've really only got 8 million in cash left, though they talk about $181 million liquididy from bank lines and unutilized debt facilities. However, there's already plenty of the debt facilities and bank lines being used, and there are appear to be some covenants on the debt that may not be avoided.

Rough environment for builders and material suppliers.

bottom line:

A $0.10 dividend costs them about $14 million. They've got $9 million in cash.

re:financials

I'm in no rush to buy. And I'd have to see capitulation or an offer like Warren's.

I find it interesting that while gold has taken a tumble, other precious metals have fared much worse: palladium from $450 in June to $200, platinum from $2,200 in May to $860 (now only a little more than $100 over gold) and rhodium from $10,000 an oz in fewer than six months to a paltry $1200.

Market doesn't like CSCO results so far - trading down to $17