I wonder how this resentment, justified, will effect markets in the US?

Bill,

You mentioned in your daily report that the Big Money is waiting for the election. What will be the impact of a Democrat victory versus a Republican victory on stock market sentiment, in your opinion?
Others?

driving N on 101 near Sierra Point this morning noticed the following billboard from Schwab:

"Markets Vary. Good market advice doesn't."

LOL, not sure how that got by the board...might as well have a billboard that says:

"The weather changes. Our outfits don't. That's why you're all wet."

x22 - It's been mentioned to expect more regulation. But the financial problems are so severe, whoever wins 11/4 has their hands full. I don't see how they can do much but try to keep the nation's and the world's economies from sinking further.

How can I get more information on the Cara Advisory Service? Is there a link somewhere? Thankyou Dhill

'Morning Bill,

US govt leaders who rammed through the bank bailout scheme are now trying to use moral suasion in the media to get the banks to drop the idea of no bonuses from any entity getting govt money. How useless and seemingly disingenuous is that? Why wasn't the illegality of bonuses and other such concerns put into a law instead of a two page document that says the borrower promises not to cheat the government? IMO, until the bankers who perpetrated the fraud are disgraced, bankrupted or jailed the necessary restoration of market confidence will not occur. We will continue to see gamers and dreamers driving this market to nowhere. There's been enough blood in the streets - how about a little blood in the boardrooms of HB&B?

david - try www.billcara2.com

All the big failures get bailed out, but where is this UNLIMITED money coming from?

Eventually this orgy of printing will get reflected in the value of the paper.

I just wonder if I'll still be solvent by then, LOL.

2nd,
Funny....and clever for so early in the morning!

TerryC - I agree, but the problem is most likely the complicity of the politicians in watering down laws and passing new laws that enabled the Wall Street addict to use all the derivative drugs and other mood enhancers they wanted.

Hello All,Social equity? What social equity. Lets face it, when goverment for and of HB&B exist to shear the buy side sheep for the benifit of the sell side, this is our lot. And no party will stand up to their HB&B masters. Not Mr. Country first McCain nor Mr.Change, Barak Obama himself. The HB&B Lobyist puppet masters Control! Both here and abroad. Things will be fine for HB&B so long as they privatize the profits, but socialize the losses! Kaimu has it right, IT ALL WORKS TILL IT DON'T

JohnE, Thankyou I am looking for his new service soon to be through Interactive Brokers. I am confused, is this a managed fund or what? Thanks Dhill

David - Please contact Bill directly. I think Bill's new service is investment management with a 50K minimum.

JohnE, Thanks will do.

$US dollar moving up has not been particularly good for the SPX for the last 2-3 months so today might be a downer if $USD continues its upward path, but who knows what goes on in the back rooms?
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Stock Alert
Walgreens (WAG) had a "Buy alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2008-10-28 at $24.96, +0.96% chg], after a 1 day AZ" according to CaraCommunity.com.

It closed yesterday at 25.20 in a strong weekly candle (so far). The daily chart shows WAG at the top of a 12 day range that includes a double bottom pattern and a double top pattern. If the SPX doesn't pull the anchor line down, this ship (WAG) might be headed at least to its FIB of 27.50. No position yet.

Bet they are selling a lot of Aspirin and Tums. Not trading advice.

maybe it's just me, but i dont expect anything less from big business or my government. im a libertarian in theory and take responsibility for my actions.

its up to us, in forums such as these to make informed decisions based on what is occurring around us against our approval. i have no problem with that whatsoever.

as for the election and its ramifications, i think the market has prepared itself for an obama win...whether good or bad. and if mccain wins, i think its a net positive for the market.

for the country on the other hand? not so sure yet. either way, whoever becomes president will have their hands full. there is so much cleanup to be done. im surprised mccain at 72 even wants to take this mess.

re: printing money,

most of the rationale and logic used to support gold rising during times of financial crisis was proven wrong as gold and gold shares were taken down along w/ the market as people moved to cash as their preferred safe haven. in some instances gold mining shares were one of the worst things to hold during this downdraft even as gold held strong at first.

now many of the same people are concluding that the current flood of dollars being handed out by the US will reveal itself in the form of higher asset prices and more specifically higher gold.

i certainly hope so as the rationale appears sound but it is emanating from many analysts and gold bugs like Jim Willie, Jay Taylor, Jim Sinclair, Richard Russell, Steve Saville, john embry, eric sprott and the like who were essentially wrong about golds prior action. so are we to trust them now? its not a matter of discrediting anyone who makes a bad call, its a question of understanding how the current action resulted in a new understanding of gold and PM shares that can be applied going forward with lessons learned.

bill has outlined his rationale and i am largely on his side of the trade, but many of the above mentioned permabulls were not only wrong in terms of the the last 6 months of gold and PM shares but they appear to have done a lousy job of clearly admitting it and moving on or have obsfucated their past remarks to imply that they had somehow warned people of the possibility.

having followed most of these guys every day for the past 4 years i refuse to believe this.

2nd,

You are very funny indeed. by the way, where are you driving AT 5 AM..on halloween and are you in your costume? roads are wet out there - be careful

Grym my man....from earlier today....

Are you one of the lucky one's making over $250,000?

If not, then your toys and lunch money are safe.
AAMOF, you may get a bite of Hanks sandwich or buy milk with *your* money Reagan gave to Buffett or HB&B.

Unless YOU are HB&B, then the pendulum is swinging IN your direction.

If you make over $250,000, I'm not going to worry one bit about you as you've been making a killing since Reagan and Voodoo economics.

I don't doubt that the election will be an inflection point as Bill hypothesizes... but honestly I don't think anyone expects McCain to win. That would indeed be the only surprise. So I'm not sure how the market reacts to the apparent near certain and expected Obama win (since this should basically be factored in).

Spot, thanks on the WAG info as they are at 25.75 premarket and climbing.

vanillabean- i'm an early bird...usually in the office by 5am, and out by 2pm, which permits plenty of time with the kids...right now it's water polo and soccer...

Cara 100 Update:

XOM - Price Target Raised from $77 to $80 @ Credit Suisse

ERTS - Price Target Lowered from $40 to $36 @ GS based on lower 2009 estimates and multiple. Q2 results included reduced guidance and shift toward lower margin products. Also note catalog revenue drop. Maintained Buy rating.

dr.cosa

Bob Hoye has been accurately tracking / forecasting this "longest train-wreck" in the history of the credit markets.

He stated that gold shares WILL be highly vulnerable and follow the general market DOWN. The anticipated "safer" entry point for gold-shares was/is in Nov. Spot on...

Anyway, as the real price of gold rises relative to falling commodities, the profitability of gold equities will improve.

Holding on to my gold, GLD and GDX... till the Dow / Gold ratio reaches parity...

gold/silver futures still off 0.54/2.35%. Brent Crude futures off -3.58%

Cara 100 News:

CCL - has declared a December dividend and announced subsequent dividend suspension.

I want to remind everyone that both Mccain and Obama voted for the Wall Street Bailout and both repeated the play line about how the whole world would crumble if we didn't bail out HB&B.

So, if you're planning on voting for either of them because you think either will stop doing Wall Street's bidding and start working for the people, I wouldn't get my hopes up.

There was only one candidate who stood against Wall Street and for a strong America but everyone who wanted to keep the spending our grandkids money party going labeled him a "kook".

If my socialist state of NY lets me write him in I will. If NY doesn't, I'll likely choose another third party candidate.

Rob.

Dr. Cosa
I appreciate your commentary on the gold and precious metals. The financial freeze has caused a flight to cash. I think it is temporary. Once the election is over, the credit markets thaw somewhat and people start to realize how much the Fed has put the dollar at risk, we will see a turnaround back to commodities and particularly precious metals. The libor rate has dropped somewhat and I think that indicates credit is becoming available. I was in Viet Nam 68, 69, 70 and 71 (USMC). Not continuous but for several years. The people I met in the villages that had money did not put in the bank. They kept gold.
Didn't someone mention that Morgan Stanley had a boat load of gold futures for December. It may have been Kaimu. We know the market is manipulated. They can only do it for so long though. Hang in there. I'm keeping my shares of the miners I have for the foreseeable future.

Real market will move at Happy Hour.
That is around 3.00p.m to 4.00 p.m
Until than it is noise
Have a fun until than

craig,

agreed again it is shifting in our way but at what cost?

what cost? Cost for the younger generations...

TGL - stated the scary thing is the younger and younger populace will be voting more in droves in the next four years. "if they are getting a hand out, why should i?"

Movement towards more of a socialist society, is only going to hinder the morale of a classes will to thrive.
Granted now - the rules are so skewed for some, so we could assume (hate doing that) those some may not try to advance.

I don't believe the original intent of our government was to give out welfare to those who are unfortunate (work for it, fight for it, go get it), HOWEVER we know it was not the intention of our found fathers to allow BANKERS to coin our countries money.

I am afraid of the shoes to fall as socialism is closer to reality day by day. although if things don't get better, it won't take long for "change" and "hope" to start. Only I fear that time it will be pitchforks and shovels marching to washington.

Whatever happens on monday, my guy or not (neither are) I FOR ONE WILL SUPPORT THE COMMANDER AND CHEIF.

I wish more people around the country would have that attitude, you don't have to like your leader but you better respect them, give them a rope and if they hang themselves (like our current one did) so be it. We will vote them out.

vote out all incumbents who voted for the TARP BILL!

Agreed, Rob.

We already know where McCain/Bush stand with HB&B.

Several weeks ago, Obama praised the work of Hank Paulson, stating that there may be a place for him in his administration.

Clearly, neither of these candidates is the answer.

Regards,

article - 9/08 consumer spending decline and other stats http://tinyurl.com/6g244t

Anyone know why RIMM is soaring upwards?

I think credit is available, just not where its needed.

There's lots of credit available for CDO's if you want to be a the counterparty to HB&B swaps. The trouble is, the swap eventually works like a naked short on any equity or commodity or some kind of a market trap with no 'out.' And if nobody buys the CDO, then HB&B can't write their swaps. So HB&B is on strike with no commercial lending unless you take out a CDO against your corporation or gold futures or oil contracts or govenment bonds, or etc, etc, etc.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a1lF5ibQBk9w&refer=home

If the whole market were allowed to operated on the basis that anybody could write a lien against the equity value of just about anything, you don't have a market, you have a trap.

Kim,

CNBC ANALyst Pump.

Regards

Kim - Street article, pg 2 also mentions trends and RIMM http://tinyurl.com/5zzcy7

Bull Hunter & JohnE

Thank you for the help fellows!

thx for the comments guys,

i will check out Bob Hoye's stuff at 321gold,
but i think he tended to asterisk any bullish gold preditions over the years with "gold and PM shares mall fall" type trapdoors that wouldnt really help an investor. im concerned with the basis for their calls and how the underlying rationale if proven wrong in the current market conditions has changed for the better to examine the gold market.

when i read more of hte same "this is the best time to buy gold because of inflation, the fed is printing" im reminded of what they have said for the past 3 years. for most gold bugs who invested heavily in miners and not the metal its been a bad prospect. im wondering what any of these analysts have learned or are they still insistant on their outlook no matter how badly miners got beat up and continue to follow the market as opposed to the metal.

w/ respect to Obama supporting paulson i think its done because in the midst of crisis you wouldnt want to be seen critisizing the captian of the ship. especially if the bailout worked, obama would look like a fool for cutting him down. by offering support to paulson and co., its win-win: if the bailout plan worked then youre on the winning side, if it failed, you can claim you tried and offered suppport across party lines during turbulent times.

these people dont blink without finding out how it may be percieved and how it will affect the bottom line in winning. obama wont be caught eating a hamburger unless a strategist wanted to secure voters in key beef-belt states.
imho.

Obama's intent and those with socialist leanings look to take AMBITION away from the people.
They look to replace it with dependence upon the government. It's a power grab...they control the ever-growing government and look to dole out the money as they see fit...to the (as they see it)uneducated underclass...to keep them "satisfied". It's the "keep them down but satsified" attitude.

Dollar strength today may be related to post yesterday:

“. . . tomorrow is month-end, and we could see some adjustments being made in foreign stock funds... Let me explain... These foreign stock funds are off by quite a bit this month, and since they are foreign stock funds, they are denominated in foreign currencies... So, to adjust the amount of currency needed to fund the well, fund... These funds might have to sell currencies tomorrow.” Posted by: Seamus at October 30, 2008 12:25 PM

Looking at it as an opportunity actually.

NRT

FWIW, don’t know if anyone picked up on prior postings on this “widows and orphans” fixed income play. Thrown out in a panic of fear earlier this month, as noted sold down to a 19 handle and has crept back today with a 30 handle, now paying only 14% royalties. It is a very, very low volume royalty play (almost illiquid, i.e. not suited for any day trading), but consistent fixed income performer over the years.

any economist could see the bailout failing - you are right that he did have to support the leadership with the situation.
Don't get it twisted. Obama, McCain - they are both on the payroll of money. no real change, just the macro circumstances in which the sheeple can grasp the idea of change.

nothing will change until the SAVINGS rate gets back up to 10% and we are a producing nation. nuff said

dr.cosa

No, I don't believe the permabull gold bugs, either. permabull is no better than permabear, IMO.

But I do believe that eventually the pendulum will swing back to the upside for gold, and that the money printing orgy will eventually come back to fuel gold's move as the dollar dump gets sent overseas via the trade deficit. I really don't believe they will be so foolish as to LEND us more day after day, everyday, forever, especially with our debt now over $10 trillion, without ever considering that we might not ever be willing or able to repay it. Jawboning and paper gold pricing games will only work so long in that environment.

Hammer1 - With all due respect. No one has done a better job of what you mentioned than the current regime. I have been a republican most of my conscious life, when I see some again I may vote for them.

i take exception to people constantly refering to obama as a socialist. i suspect that americans seem to misunderstand what socialism is, how its enacted and how many of the republican regimes have done things that are textbook socialist actions.

not all things related to "socialism" need to be dirty words even to free market capitalists.

both parties believe in a strong domestic economy and devote taxpayer dollars to fund local industry, especially agriculture.

they also agree on some sort of national strategy for health care for elderly and children, and to provide a basic level of care for anyone in need even if they dont have the money. i refuse to accept that as a free-marketeer youd leave homeless and poor people dying in the streets because they cant afford insurance.

soup kitchens, church-based charities and other social aid programs are given tax-exempt status by the governments no matter what party is in charge, such releif is in a way funding social aid by not taking taxes from their operating budgets.

old age security and protection for unionized workers are sacred cows to both parties, and under the bush regime billions of dollars have flowed into programs that would be in any other way a socialistic-based governement intervention.

people insisting obama would alter things drastically in a socialist slant appear to miss how much of the US is not even remotely free-market and depends heavily on government subsidy, "sponsored" programs, or tax relief and protectionism that allows them to continue their way of life.

the only true free market are nations like russia where the black market dominates the landscape,
Vadym can speak to this more. the intermingling of governement forces and the wild-west type approach doesnt exist in america the same way it once did.

everyone is so terrified of "socialism" they havent bothered to read a textbook or history book on what it really is and how dominant it is in america. and if you think canada is a socialist haven because of free-health care and tight regulation for guns, consider that the american government spends more tax dollars per citizen than canada does on health care due to subsidy.

I'm not at all hopeful for a big ol' economic bat turn and we suddenly decide we are a nation of savers and totally functioning humans and we're all self sufficient.
I don't know if we can get there from here.
I know we have to start and the guy it looks like we will be electing is the best we are going to get. I think the Dems are actually the perfect choice to reform the financial regulations.

The problem isn't so much party or ideology.
It's this damned consumer economy we have become addicted to. All the people need jobs yet most sell useless junk (consumables). Both parties seem helpless to stop it. The people participate in this madness. Look at CC debt and shopping addiction. Where else on earth do they have shopping addictions?

How to we change from consumers to producers?
Surely not by choosing trickle down economics which after so long have failed the working people. It may require the government (read the people) investing in themselves and government unfortunately is that vehicle.

I would like to see those that benefit(ed) the most from our infrastructure and that have gotten most of the tax breaks and profits over the last decade or so finally get the bill for the portion they dumped on the people who could least afford it while they assaulted their rights, unions, wages, sent their jobs over seas, stole their purchasing power and assets through manipulation and inflation and outright extortion and re-distributed their wealth to Iraq.

I want to start rewarding savers like we do dividend earners and LT cap gains. Everyone's $ should be treated equally. Buffett's secretary should pay the same % of tax on income as he does. Right now that isn't the case, not even close.

We need the pendulum to swing, but we need to be smart about it. If the dems have a lick of sense, they will know there are limitations to what can happen.

If they don't accomplish something in two years there will be a mid term congressional election and more heads will roll and the dems will lose their jobs. I'm good with that.

anyone have comments on gg's earnings?

JohnE,

I agree with your sentiment. We are moving the socialist direction, Republicans as well as Democrats. Ambition is being diminished. It is a sad thing to see.

Craig,

What would you think of tax free savings accounts? Starting in 2009, Canadians will be able to contribute $5,000 each year to such an account. Any interest, dividends or capital gains will not be taxed. It may not sound like much at the start, but it will be significant in the long run. If anything it will encourage Canadians to become savers. It was conceived and passed before the need to recapitalize banks arose. It seems like a better idea than borrowing billions of dollars to buy pieces of banks.

Very well said Dr. Cosa.
How many of those spouting "socialism" have cited corporate welfare, aid to oil co's, war, tax cuts for the wealthy, etc. as socialism?

Socialism is a two way street and both parties use the HOV/diamond lanes.

At somepoint in the future all the recent investors in Treasuries are going to want something that pays to cover the coming inflation. What are those bonds going to be worth. .80 to .85 cents on the dollar? That's a 15% haircut. There is no free lunch.

Craig & Dr. Cosa - I agree

RosevilleBill - Bill has mentioned shorting bonds, all we need is the timing.

Being an unwitting gold bug and having followed the top gold analysts for years, I am wondering whether people realize they have already been tarred with the brush of "heads I win, tails you lose" logic that pervades their so-called predictions.

I think its a kind of subjective attachment to some kind of extremist ideology loosely based on hard money theory that clouds their judgement. But then again, I find myself in the hard money camp myself.

Just the same, there's nobody else to depend on. The gold analysts and industry wonks fall into two categories. Gold is going to the moon, or you wouldn't want to live in a world of $1500/oz. gold, so be glad.

I don't buy either. I WOULD like to see a world of $1500/oz. + gold, in fact, gold price fixing on the COMEX should accurately reflect the actual level of currency being printed on the face of the earth at any given time and not the extent to which frivolous swaps determine the upside limits.

CDO's and swaps will bomb us into the stone age, and I'm wondering whether the politicians have woken up to the fact yet. The longer the banking monopoly of CDO's and swaps goes on, the worse things will get, as the foundation of property and everything we know about citizenship is being challenged.

Its a political game, alright.

Kiron, it's an excellent idea.

kiron
The TFSA will be THE biggest financial boon for the small investor/saver since RRSP were introduced in 1957. Check this link out: http://tinyurl.com/57uxwj

I've been in and out of SLW several times. This is the perfect traders market...Bullish enough for there to be buyers, bearish enough for there to be sellers.

craig,

agree again good points...

However buffets secretary does not pay more in taxes then him. the only way that would be possible if he does not take a salary at BH and his income is only subject to LT cap gains. There isn't in-equality for tax rates in that situation. She works makes a wage, he works for his investments. His human capital build actual capital. She is her human capital at this point in time.

Consumers to producers, probably not going to happen. I could only hope that it would. we have the resources to do it, we have the human capital, will and we are very clever.

Why it won't happen, lets see Corporatacity? the advertisers who fund politicians? constantly program the sheeple to go buy junk (i for one am one of them, very important to admit you have a problem to acknowledge a problem).

The tax code is ridiculous - does not promote a free market, lobbied line items allow for benefits to markets that no business receiving those tax breaks. Makes things bubble or never have a shot at a free market. This is a problem that NO ONE talks about. hence the game is flawed and we have to play by the rules.

OUR PROBLEM: The whole nation needs a mindset change, we have to have a vision - we don't. I am sorry but "Change" and "Hope" is not a vision. change to what? and hope for what? oh puuhhleeeez. Change from the current administration is our vision?
Free health care is our hope? How are we suppose to pay for this change and hope policies with no VISION?

How about we set some bench marks to shoot for 5-10-15 years. A real business plan instead of quick drug fixes that we so heavily enjoy. It is preposterous that we have not had a policy since the end of the cold war (not a great vision then be we did have a target). The war on terror is a joke, Yeah I'll admit now. We lost rights, wasted funds. Afganistan was somewhat nobel of a cause, iraq was pointless. Flying is such a hassle not, come'on 100 ml for liquids? at least they are reversing that soon. Flawed feared vision.

We need goals, targets and something to feel proud of. That is a policy our leaders should craft and sell to us.

instead we are left with close doors and self serving individual visions.

enjoy the weekend.

I need a "MONKEY"!

As long as people can capitalize on good ideas ambition is safe. You aren't going to make someone like Bill Gates socialist. The reward overcomes anything he can get from society.

If people can earn fair wages the same law of reward will prevail. It is when hard work is met with unfairness that ambition suffers.

All animals want reward and take the path of most reward/least resistance. We are all genetically programmed to seek reward.
Hunting animals will actually hunt the same spot they were successful before in hopes of repeating reward. We do exactly the same.

Traders will work a successful trade until????
Yep, when it doesn't work anymore and it becomes negative. Reward is deeply programmed in our genes. All we have to do is choose where the reward comes from. Do we re-distribute through higher wages/income or through higher taxes and social/corporate programs? It's all reward to the receiver, whether person or corporation.

"As long as people can capitalize on good ideas ambition is safe."

I presume that Paulson is of that opinion as well. Its wrong. Just depends on subjective opinion what a good idear is.

Dr Cosa

The argument for a higher gold price is that the flooding of the system with newly printed money is inflationary. Because the money supply has increased, it would be natural to expect fiat currency to devalue against most commodities, particularly gold.
The argument for a lower gold price is that the money that is flooding the system is going to the banks, to address their current lack of liquidity. It’s not getting through to the high street. Once the banks liquidity issue is relieved, the central banks will move to mop up the excess money in the system, which will be deflationary. In addition, the large deficits incurred by many nations, in particular the US after an Obama win in the Presidency race next week, will be financed by increased taxes, rather than debt, a move that will also be deflationary.
Right now, I’m in the inflation camp, but I’m watching the moves in gold carefully, because it seems to me that in the current circumstances, anything can happen.

"MONKEY"

too early for Monkey. U'll develop immunity and a possible LT addiction.

shark - What is your spread for the sell side? do you go by a percentage?

I was speaking generally about ambition. Of course, there will always be specific individuals who are ambitious. It will be those of lesser means who are going to become less and less ambitious...because of the environment created by socialism.

very true. i shall for now on reserve for last trading hours only.

kiron

The tax free savings account coming this january is good for Canadian but let's face it Canadians don't need to be encouraged to save more...
Canada is a country of savers..
kiron Question.. r u sure capital gains will not be taxed in that account??? if it's true great!

let's reduce capital gains tax in this country or eliminate it, which I believe will encourage more people to invest in the markets again...

Norm, Buffett has better tax rates, he has better means to adjust income, and he doesn't pay income tax levels for his cap gains and divs.

He himself says his secretary pays more *as a percentage of income* then he does.

I'll use my own example. I, like Warren, have a home office that Warren's secretary as a Berkshire Employee, doesn't have. She may have a home office, but she is employed by Warren and as such enjoys no special treatment for her office. Warren and I write off all of our office expenses. We can also remodel our offices and write it off too. Same for insurance, phone, etc.
I have use of my business truck and for most of my travel I write off expenses, maintenance, insurance, fuel, etc. On occassion I can combine business and pleasure and the pleasure is free. Warren's secretary has to drive to work every day at her expense and she gets no free travel perks.

No, Warren's secretary pays quite a bit more tax than Warren as a percentage of income.

So XOM is going to be less productive because we give them billions in corporate welfare?
How about this bail out?

If you are right then we are more socialist under the current admin/party than ever before.

Which side are you on? Are you a citizen or a large multinational corporation?

Seriously...$700 billion is years of welfare for the poor. Surely in scale you jest.

sv
Actually Canadians are not as big a 'savers' as you think. We don't spend/save like the Americans but we are at generational lows, as of Q2 according to Statscan we are avceraginf 2.8% down 0.3% since the prior Q, hardly big.
The TFSA once set up, does not generate cap gains, interest expense or dividend income at all and may be withdrawn tax free. It is huge.

On the tax savings account, the thing is, many, or most, by now have tax losses. They are better off not using a tax savings account of those losses cannot be offset. They are great for banks to raise money from the masses though.

One advantage is in not having to report transactions, same as RRSPs.

[Bill Cara note:

There was a comment at 9:30am today that was posted at the tail end of yesterday's Discourse by Tango6. Because it was on Bahamas and contained many inaccuracies and unsupportable statements, although generally ok, I appended a response. I didn't mince words.]

Anyone here watching WFR ? ($18.12)

CEO resigned yesterday. 2 of last 3 days have produced tails on the daily chart. Yesterday's volume was extremely high, and at yesterday's low of $13.88, it was 76% below its 200 DMA.

Was that the washout ?

Disclosure: No position

"american government spends more tax dollars per citizen than canada does on health care due to subsidy"

If so, it seems the Canadian mechanism is superior from my perspective.

gold:
When the opportunity presents itself, I'll simply take delivery and hold in wait for an honest era.

Meanwhile, I'm concentrating on the probable impact of runaway USD/Yen. Failure of foreign currencies? Upheaval? How about when/if reversals occur?

[Bill Cara note:

I believe that for all its faults, and there are a great many serious ones, the Cdn healthcare system is one of the finest in the world. It is not a socialized medical and hospital system, not even close. Each province happens to be the insurer and the party that, after negotiations with the care providers, sets the line item charges. The people with jobs pay very high premiums. Those without, young and old, the institutionalized, etc, do not. Everybody, within practical limits, has freedom of choice of care provider. The principles on which the system is based are wonderful. This is social equity at work. Because of the emotional nature of our concerns for receiving timely highest quality care when we are not healthy, Canadians would obviously like to see the provincial governments put more investment into public and private sector facilities and staff; however, these governments have a mandate to spend money wisely, and so there are constant conflicts. I see these conflicts as being necessary to keep government honest in meeting their mandate. At the end of the day, the results show that across the world, Canadians are relatively healthy, physically speaking. But the comfort of knowing that no Canadian goes unprotected speaks to the very core of what is Canadian. To use a quote from Obama, "I am my brothers and my sisters keeper." It's a great system and I only wish the critics would devote their time to trying to make it better rather than tearing it down. And please, save me the Fraser Institute crapola on this topic. I stopped reading that stuff 35 years ago, when I was a nationally known consultant in health care management systems.]

Si02
IMO this is a terrific deal for all Canadians. RRSP's are useless to those under the $35-40k threshhold and if a conservative person (not market oriented) puts the $5k in a GIC at 4.5% for 5 years they keep every cent. Alternatively if Sammy Speculator gets on a flier and converts the $5k in to $15k he can withdraw the entire amount tax free AND the high water mark is now $15k he can replace it with AND each year another $5k room is added.

hugh,

ill believe the gold price increase arguement when, if ever it comes to pass.

gold moving back to $900 does not qualify this thesis either because it was just there a few weeks ago and has tumbled hard.

ive scaled back and looking to re-enter if the prices fall, especially on the miners. as it stands i fail to envision a bullish scenario aside from a 1 month mini-rally which again does not support the excess money=higher stocks prices notion. we have yet to see it as we watch a small bounce back in the markets that sure doesnt feel like much of a rally yet.

a rally will feel like a rally imho, and not sideways action with sudden dumps at the market close or suspect volume on up days.

my bullishness on gold and miners is diminishing by the day, even with prices somewhat higher than earlier this week. we need to see a clear breakout for things to signal that the "weimar" theory will ring true imho. but as noted before, the rationale used to support that gold and the miners would do well in this market was proven horribly wrong by many. and there appears to be no alteration to the game plan for the same bullish calls going forward beyond the fact that "now things are inflationary" where as the past 3 years when most gold bugs said the printing presses were running over time it was a deflation...

i dont even know or care what those terms mean because niether scenario appeared to make any of us any money. im still in awe of some gold bugs who never change their tune to "buy gold stocks now, buy my subscription to find out which are the best ones to buy", i read their aritcles in the same way i read the saturday newspaper cartoon.

this site is one of the few i can take seriously.

Ooops! Forgot, I wrote the whole purchase price of the truck off in one year. Warren's secretary had to pay for her car, no write off.

She must be really nice, because she is taking a beating tax wise....

Good interview article with FedX Chairman, Fred Smith.

http://tinyurl.com/64e7ex

Those who like catching falling financial knives can look at PNSN, down around - $5 or - 40% on a potential loss of $.50 on a Canadian broker customer apparently.

I have watched it only because I use thinkorswim (SWIM) which clears through Penson.

I have never owned any before, but I just bought 100 "trophy" shares @ $7.00. This will force me to keep track of what happens to it I am thinking.

PNSN does not look particularly bullish on the weekly or daily charts, so I will not chance buying any more.
Looks to me like it might eventually go down to the low $5:ish area.
If it does go down there, it might be a long term buy - if it survives the weird times ahead.

doydd
This is not a buy rec, except possibly for daytraders who already know what they are doing juggling falling knives.

out of BKD. in 10/28 @ 6.53, out at 8.71

FYI, the daily report has most of it's charts and tables messed up due to an issue with an upstream provider. When that gets resolved, I'll fix it and post here for anyone who is waiting for it.

buying a little SRS at $125 and change.

The rate cuts this week moving inter-bank to 1% and by extension the prime to 4%, with expectations, @75% probability, of another .5% reduction on 12/16/08 (which favors companies & equities) have moved ma & pa kettle's new 30 year mortgage rate to ~6.5% (no points) from 6.125% last week. Happy Trading

Given the discussion about socialism, I've cut/paste the following from an MSN article last week by Andrew Horowitz.

CAPITALISM: An economic and political system characterized by a free market for goods and services and private control of production and consumption.

SOCIALISM: An economic system in which the production and distribution of goods are controlled substantially by the government, rather than by private enterprise, and in which cooperation rather than competition guides economic activity. There are many varieties of socialism. Some socialists tolerate capitalism, as long as the government maintains the dominant influence over the economy; others insist on an abolition of private enterprise. All communists are socialists, but not all socialists are communists.

COMMUNISM: An economic and social system envisioned by the 19th century German scholar Karl Marx. In theory, under communism, all means of production are owned in common, rather than by individuals. In practice, a single authoritarian party controls both the political and economic systems. In the 20th century, communism was associated with the economic and political systems of China and the Soviet Union and its satellite states.

Bill
Excellent notes re GS, I especially like the line
"therefor I wouldn't listen to a word that GS has to say about commodities"
Keep it up.

[Bill Cara note:

I think Goldman Sacks employs the finest resources within HB&B. But when companies get stressed, the moral hazard issue becomes too huge to ignore. I think the GS analysts these days must be under career pressure to do what's in the interest of their management rather than what they might opine professionally. When it comes to financial matters, never seek counsel from people who are under duress. If you do, you'll never get good advice.]

AGM

Farmer Mac showing strength here, up 23%. No news other than contractor named Acting CFO. Have posted on this one in the past.
Disclosure: small (presently u/w) position

"large deficits incurred by many nations, in particular the US after an Obama win in the Presidency race next week, will be financed by increased taxes, rather than debt, a move that will also be deflationary."

Deflation - A decline in general price levels, often caused by a reduction in the supply of money or credit. Deflation can also be brought about by direct contractions in spending, either in the form of a reduction in government spending, personal spending or investment spending. Term used by the classical economists to refer to a decrease in the money supply and credit. Deflation has often had the side effect of increasing unemployment in an economy, since the process often leads to a lower level of demand in the economy. opposite of inflation.

Reflation: The act of stimulating the economy by increasing the money supply or by reducing taxes. It is the opposite of disinflation.

Stagflation - High inflation and high unemployment.

Disinflation is the slowing rate of inflation.

MONKEY! seems to work any time of day...can we do it eight times and get it up to 10000 please...

Buy 4,000 Shares of SLW
Details Filled at $3.48

Grey....It's Halloween. Do you know where your sunshine went? LOL!

bought puts in LVS. $12.50 Nov strike.

Chinese and American regulators riding in a cab together reached a fork in the road. The American suggested taking the right side, and the Chinese replyed "Sounds good, but let's first initiate a left turn signal".

Yes Canadians have to wait sometimes 1,3, or more hours for a doctor to see us in a hospital,not perfect! but acceptable knowing that I will be taken care of and it won't cost me a fortune.

missed out on NOT...up 10%

We wait longer and we pay more.

True

USD is having a nice morning, PM's have not fared as well.

Craig, I thought this was sunshine! NW liquid gold. Actually it is lightening up as we speak. Any sunshine in the market. I put AGM on my watchlist and forgot to watch it! I thought GG would shine....shows what I know. Hey, I got a dog. No not eslr a real dog, four legs and all. Shes snoring on my feet as we speak
peace

wrote "true" responding to NOT...up 10%

SNDK pocketted a quick 10% since yesterday.

Rather than have a MONKEY, how about the market go up 25 to 50 pts a day for the next 2 months? Just nice steady growth and no more 400, 600, 800 and 1000 point days.
I like the example of I'll work for you for a penny a day for a month as long as you double it every day.

Gray: You can count on a dog in any market! Nothing is better at living in the *now* than a dog. And they keep your feet warm....
Enjoy!

ALOHA!!

"Many criticisms leveled at the market are misguided, according to Robert Pickel, head of the International Swaps and Derivatives Association in New York, the industry group that sets standards for traders. The contracts are an effective tool to hedge against losses, and the losses that toppled firms such as AIG were triggered by the underlying loans, not the derivatives, he said."

Now there's a guy who has something to sell! I love the guy's last name ... Pickel! How unmercifully he must have been teased as a child, eh? Fortunately his parents did not name him Richard! His name is perfect for his job though!! HA!!

The head of the International Swaps and Derivatives Assoc. is blaming the loans, but could the loans even be available if it were not for the added leveraging via fractional reserve banking and the "insured value" the CDS offered? The banks and AIG falsely concluded that their packaged and insured loans took the liability off their books and were able to write more loans, which leveraged the markets even higher than just what fractional reserve banking allowed. While it is not the fault of a CDS that a borrower defaults on a home loan it is the fault of CDS leveraging that created the banks ability to extended far more fraud into the system growing the bubble larger than would have been possible without CDS. Please-e-e Mr. Pickel, explain how derivatives have grown in notional value to $1.1quadrillion globally? Is there really a counterparty to all that? There's not even a market for all that so how can there be a "real" counterparty? Any financial instrument, even a US Peso, is only as strong as the counterparty that backs it ... Hey, if I can get a rating agency to back me I'll be a counterparty too! HUH? What? What's that you say Mr. Paulson ... I am a counterparty already? Oh, yeah, right ... I'm a US TAXPAYER ... Hummmm ... I forgot!! With globalization the entire PLANET is now a counterparty!!! Therein lies our problem! Social inequity on a global scale, as Bill's article about angry Hong Kong investors clearly shows ... So if you think that somehow you escaped the Bear Stearns mess or Lehman or AIG or any of the multitudes of WALL STREET failures, past and future, then you are mistaken. Our government will make sure you get the BILL!!! Not only YOU but your kids will most assuredly pay for this as will their kids! Now that's what I call SPREADING THE WEALTH!!!

Welcome to WALMART ... I LOVE YOU!!!

the health care issue is something i find interesting because i work in the industry here in canada from a funding role and can attest to the good, the bad and the myths of our system.

its not free. you pay for it via taxes, via "health care premium deductions" on your paychecks in ontario or via deductions in BC from your check. you pay for it via lost hours from work having to spend extra time in emergency rooms and doctor's offices for treatment.

you pay for it via user fee's that are slowly creeping into every element of the system.

you pay for it when you have to wait 3 months for an MRI for your busted knee and build up anxiety and stress during the waiting game.

you pay for it paying for parking and gas to get ot the only specialist in the area that may be several hours away from you that can take new patients.

you pay for it even as you can see right before your eyes the waiting lists grow, the crowded hospitals get worse and the costs for medication increase.

its a great system overall but i believe we praise our system without being fully aware of how other systems operate and what works over the long term. europe has a mix of private and public care, doctors in france attend university for free compared to canadian schools, but are paid about 1/2 what canadian doctors make.

what may seem like a great system for patients may be a less than desirable arrangement for its providers. do we sacrafice what doctors make for the good of the citizenry? if so why not cut wages to all public sector staff for the good of the public. and less doctors want to treat patients in family medicine like whats happening in canada do you simply legislate them to? do you pay them more? or import foriegn doctors who may take years to get up to our standards which is money equally spent on a canadian to attend medical school.

much of our system is a fog of success because canadians spend over 1 billion per year on health care outside our country. most canadians live within about a 2 hour drive of the US. i can obtain a top flight full colour MRI in buffallo for about $500 the same day for a 1 hour drive from toronto. i would have to wait about 3 months for a low-resolution MRI here and they would charge the government $600-$800 for the trouble.

for every person who gets scans and health care in the US its less strain on our system. so to say it functions is to say that more people are seeking alternatives who can afford it just a few hours away. (considering id have to wait about 6-8 hours in an ER to get treated for a broken arm, its cheaper to drive 1 hour to the US for treatment, pay the $300 bill and get back to work having lost less time and less cash)

overall it works but overall most canadians have a poor understanding of our system's darker underbelly, and even less understanding of the american system that isnt that different from our when you begin to examine the amount of private health care canadians actually do obtain both in and out of our country.

SLV & SLW are the only things I'm watching that look bullish - bull flags I see there, and SLV is just trying to break up.
SLV has to first make it up over the big round number 10, and then preferably make it stick over 10.50 to really look good.
Note that SLW reports on Monday, so be careful.
Added some SLW (no position in SLV).

Everything else has intraday patterns as clear as oatmeal, but looking generally bearish, including GLD & USO.
Looks like bear flags in the S&P and in most all equity sectors.
Only XLT made a new high today.

net.fishing - That was a great article. Quote from Fred Smith CEO, FedEx "... where all wealth comes from . . . It's not from the government. It's from invention and entrepreneurship and innovation. And our policies promote a legal and regulatory system which impedes our ability to grow entrepreneurship. Lastly, if we want to make [America's workers] wealthier we have to quit demonizing quote, big corporations.
"As I walk out the door I ask Mr. Smith if he's communicated these ideas directly to Barack Obama. "I haven't met Barack Obama," he replies. "He's certainly a charismatic fellow and well-spoken. I just disagree with him on trade and taxes and energy and health care.""

Getting a good run on URE-T today----u3o8 projects of merit and money (~$78mm +/-)in the till to do something with them or elsewhere. Cash is approaching market cap for this one.

JohnE,

I am so simpleminded an individual as to genuinely not know what you are asking when you ask:

"shark - What is your spread for the sell side? do you go by a percentage?"

I barely know what a spread is, and it's relationship to the "sell side" is an utter mystery to me. Either ask the question in a way I can understand or ask someone who actually knows about such things:)

stopped out of DGP for about 20 cent/share loss.

Sell 4,000 Shares of SLW
Details Filled at $3.54

Shark - my fault, sorry. The question is: when you day trade a security how do you determine at what point to sell it (Assume it will increase in value.) Do you set a simple percentage or is it a more complicated matter?

when i was young my son needed open heart surgery. we didn't have penny to rub together and luckily we were near hospital for sick children and he came through it well. i was and will always b truly greatful..

i am looking forward to the tax free saving acct. i have not been able to make my friends understand that they are presently being taxed at about 42% on their gic's in the present state. ann

Interestingly enough, judicious cuts in liability insurance for physicians realized through a re-configuration of liability litigation and reward limits, and the wholesale elimination of the for profit health insurance model would result in lower user costs without substantially undermining physician renumeration. Kinda like going to a flat tax would eliminate thousands of pages of tax code in the interest of fairness and efficiency. The problem is that both of these solutions undercut the bureacrat...
The staunchest opponents to the flat tax were the tax attorneys and tax accountants. When I think of our bureacracy, I am reminded of the leech. Not to cast dispersions on such a noble creature; the leech deserves better.

Happy Halloween.

DXD buy limit 60. doubt it gets filled but who knows?

ALOHA !!

Bill ... In other words the Canadian health care system relies on the local governments to negotiate(line items)on the citizens behalf as if the entire population of Canada was a "union of care-seekers". The only flaw I see is that what if the politicians doing the negotiating are also taking money from BIG PHARMA and the doctor unions like the AMA(here in USA). Isn't that a conflict of interest?

I would not trust my elected rep to negotiate anything on my behalf!!! In America the politicians are owned by BIG PHARMA and the AMA. That's like letting Goldman Sachs execs negotiate their 2009 bonuses with Hank Paulson!! HA!! HUH??? They are? MAN ...

Look what a marvelous job our elected leaders have done negotiating with the US Banks!!! Boy what a sweetheart deal they made for US TAXPAYERS! We get the crap and the banks get the cream!

In Canada your politicians must be better negotiators than ours, maybe that is why the Canadian Healthcare system works for Canadians. I am not so sure it works for Americans, our politicians have already raided our Social Security/Medicare Trust Fund to the tune of $99.2tril(unfunded liabilities)! So you want us to trust them again? Yet I am sure OBAMA will make a GREAT proponent for some sort of massive healthcare system here! PROMISES ... PROMISES ... that is what has gotten us in this mess!

ALL OUR BEST THINKING GOT US HERE ...

shopper
Many Canadians are in a fog when it comes to the gross amount of taxes paid as individuals (pun intended). The greatest amount of expansion in spending has been by our Federal Gov't which runs a 'surplus' read=overtaxed. The TFSA will allow Canadians to keep their money instead of handing it back to be spent by a bunch of overpaid (wages/benefits/DB pensions) sycophants.

buy stop limit EEV 90.60/90.60

JohnE

I sometimes do and sometimes don't set a pre-determined level to sell at..

Even if I have a predetermined level to sell at it's flexible. I always keep one eye on the indexes, one eye on the underlying future (silver this morning for example) and with my third eye I...I...

Try to be intelligent about where to sell. If I see the price stalling at resistance I usually just sell and ask questions later. If the price goes against me by more than a couple of cents I sell, because you never know how far against you the price will go but more often than not if yo uhold you will wind up throwing in the towel at the low and not having the stomache to re-buy. If I was right in the first place and the price again recrosses my buy point and assuming all other things looks good I will re-buy the same stock again. If, after getting in the Dow starts to rocket and the underlying future is rising I will consider buying more, hopefully on a pullback. All my daytrading happens in the context of stocks that set up well on a daily (and weekly), I like to defer to the larger timeframes when picking stocks to trade.

It's a matter of swimming with the tide. I will think more about your question and add anything I can think of.

I feel silly admitting it but at my best a lot of this stuff is kind of a matter of intuition and educated guessing.

And of course, I use candlestick charts, technical analysis and trade larger size for small moves.

You should ask Vadym the same question, then we can both find out how a real pro does it. He may even know what a spread is and is perhaps conversant with the sell-side:)

After the huge post-FED cut $USD reversal earlier this week, the $USD has been retracing some of the move since mid-day yesterday.

The retrace is decelerating at the moment and looks like the $USD strength might reverse again at any time.

This would be bullish for gold/silver/PMs. In the longer-term, I am of the opinion that we may be in for a longer basing pattern in gold for the next few months as the $USD currency trade reverts closer to the mean.

I am going to try to make some time over the weekend to do some more analysis on the list of junior gold producers that I posted earlier this week - a lot of them are so beaten down that they are making huge percentage reversals as the bottom out...........

out of LVS and MGM
do not want to hold anything for weekend

dr.cosa
It is a breath of fresh air reading your observations and they are excellent. The joke in Canada is health care is available UNTIL you actually need to use it. Our physicians leave in droves after their internship once they realize the socialist yoke of more work for less pay is on them. I count many physicians as friends and cannot believe the hours they work in relation to pay and the amount of education they have had to obtain. We do need to allocate our resources better in this regard and adopt those procedures that are working around the world. I think thee are excellent points to the US system but many faults as well. Nothing is perfect but that doesn't excuse one from trying to improve it.

Don Coxe 58 min conference call of this morning on TED Spread, Deflation/Inflation, Currencies, Gold, Oil, ....

He believes the market is forming a bottom and that the new bull leaders will be financials and commodities.

http://tinyurl.com/2htvq3

From Canaccord Capital Tuesday
A”DEFENSIVE” SLANT IN AN OFFENSIVE SMALLCAP
MINING SECTOR
Overview
The small-cap mining sector has been in the worst, most precipitous decline over a 12-month period, since the crash of 1987. Since peak highs in May 2007, the S&P/TSX Venture is off 75%. As a comparison, starting in April 1987, the market (VSE) declined about 75% over a 3.75-year period. Following the Bre-X crash of 1997, the junior mining fallout spanned about 3.5 years and the total decline was about 73%. The main market pressures continue to be related to the credit crisis plaguing the US, which has now transcended globally. With this, new concerns of economic pressures equating to global recession take centre stage on world markets. With investors
becoming highly risk averse, junior markets have come under extreme pressure, especially since May 2008. Exacerbating the situation are investment fund losses that have required these companies to liquidate positions in already illiquid stocks.
Our investment thesis does not include an attempt to time the turnaround for the junior sector. We believe at current levels, segments of the junior sector offer fundamentally good value, while recognizing aversion to the small-cap sector can include prolonged periods of value deterioration. We believe companies with low treasury levels, soft management, and weak upcoming exploration plans are at the greatest risk for further
share price erosion. With the unknowns associated with the timing of a broad junior mining market turnaround, we suggest exposure to small caps be associated with well managed, cash-rich, companies that will maintain active, but modest,
exploration/development programs on top-quality targets over the next 6-18 months.
Within that period, we are hopeful a good defence leads to the best offence, and an offthe-bottom rally provides substantial returns for risk-tolerant investors.
We have highlighted 12 small-cap mineral exploration/development companies that have
strong working capital positions, above-average project portfolios, and strong management teams.
1 B2Gold Corp. BTO TSX
2 Colossus Minerals Inc. CSI TSX
3 Exeter Resources Corp. XRC TSX-V
4 Fronteer Development Group Inc. FRG TSX
5 Hathor Exploration Limited HAT TSX-V
6 Lake Shore Gold Corp. LSG TSX
7 MAG Silver Corp. MAG TSX
8 Minera Andes Inc. MAI TSX
9 Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. NDM TSX
10 Rainy River Resources Ltd. RR TSX-V
11 Silverstone Resources Corp. SST TSX-V
12 Ur-Energy Inc. URE TSX
*Do your DD as these co's will have had an IB relationship with the above co's

Dr. Cosa--the thing that has always bothered me about the hardcore gold pushers is there is a look of almost religious zealotry about it. Even being a proponent of it myself, I still don't understand the wild-eyed enthusiasm. It's still just money. Any kind of fervor like that clouds one's judgement, in my opinion. I have yet to hear any of them say "I was wrong," or at least "too early."

re:WFR

Looks like 2 kangaroo tail reversals. Buy limit 15.38.

Let's say your portfolio is $100,000. You wish to risk .5% of your equity on this trade. That's $500.

The kangaroo tail range is 3 bucks. A retracement of half or $1.50 is elder's guess. So 13.88 bottom + 1.50 = 15.38 limit target.

Our stop will be something under 13.88. To be conservative, $500/(2*1.5) = 166 shares. If you're stopped out, you lose about $250 on the trade. You live to fight another day.

Like I said, proper position size will keep a trader in the game. After all, all a trade controls is position size, entry price, and exit price.

Thanks for the idea, Todd.

GL

Shark - That was a great response. Thank you. I need to think about what you wrote, before asking Vadym. I also read Bill's book and am going through it the 2nd & 3rd time, but your response was what I needed now.

If today shapes up bullish Ambac looks to be a winner.

Do any other traders feel cheated by the "trade settlement rules" that lock us out of using "our" $$ for days after a trade. In this electronic age the notion that it takes 3 days to clear transactions is ludicrious. It's clearly a HB&B sided rule. Does anyone see a change coming to this?

This is going to be accretive to TD. The advanced technology of Commerce bank will be brought up to their operations in Canada. Also, the average deposits in Commerce Bank per branch are very rich. No position in TD, but thinking about it.... in view of Coxe's comment just mentioned

NEW YORK, Oct 31 (Reuters) - The Commerce Bank name will disappear from hundreds of branches along the Atlantic seaboard by Nov. 5, replaced by TD Bank to reflect its new owner, Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD.TO: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz).

The Canadian bank said it plans to change signage between Nov. 1 and Nov. 4 at roughly 575 Commerce and TD Banknorth branches in the New York, Philadelphia and Washington, D.C., areas, the rest of the mid-Atlantic, and Florida.

Toronto-Dominion plans to retain features that have helped Commerce do well in customer surveys, such as seven-day-a-week banking and Penny Arcade coin-counting machines.

It also plans a multimillion-dollar marketing campaign featuring talk show hosts Regis Philbin and Kelly Ripa, who have appeared in Commerce advertising for years.

By the autumn of 2009, Toronto-Dominion plans to rebrand some 500 remaining TD Banknorth branches located throughout New England.

The Canadian bank bought Commerce's parent, Cherry Hill, New Jersey-based Commerce Bancorp Inc, in March for $7 billion.

It had planned to adopt the name TD Commerce Bank in the United States, but changed plans after a federal judge in Massachusetts said that name was too similar to that of Commerce Bank & Trust Co, a Worcester, Massachusetts, lender.

Toronto-Dominion said its U.S. banking network has $114 billion of assets, with nearly 1,100 branches stretching from Maine to Florida. (Reporting by Jonathan Stempel; editing by John Wallace)

I'd be interested in hearing what the technicals are saying on TD right now.

rimm ...up on news

vodafone group plc will give the blackberry storm away with a 18- month contract...

Vodafone aims to have the blackberry storm in subscibers hands by nov 11...available for shopping season and three weeks before rimm's nov 29 third quater

Not to cast dispersions on such a noble creature; the leech deserves better.

Thank you, you win my prize for today's best observation! A+

There is the notion that we don't wait to see doctors in the U.S. Boy are you sadly mistaken.

My wife and I schedule appointments for several Dr's months in advance. Over 9 mos to see a dentist unless it's an emergency. Not to mention adding insult to injury when you pay the insurance middleman to siphon off your healthcare dollars for absolutely nothing.
MtnGntx is right about that! I thought parasites weren't supposed to kill the host.
We pay $260 a month that pays 70% after a $3500 deductable (each). Then of course they can deny treatment for whatever loophole they can write into their contract.
So we pay approx. $6,720 a year in premiums and $7000 deductable before any meaningful coverage kicks in. At least you end up seeing a doctor and get treatment for your tax dollar in Canada.
We pay insurance and deductables and then we pay for care on top of that.

You could cry me a river and it is still better in Canada for regular and preventative care than here. Of course there are exceptions especially in specialized medicine where we can charge whatever to pay for insanely expensive dignostics machinery.

My daughter works at an emergency Veterinary clinic and they have the fancy color MRI. There is a cost and the machine is like any other investment, it has to pay for itself.

I get better, more professional and timely care at my Veterinarian, and the cost of some of the exact same meds is substantially less. Go figure.

Thanks yvrapx, I have made that a sub list on IB to watch. LOL

Yesterday I read an article about how the crack spreads are negative. I considered buying puts on refiners and sold my refiner shares at the close. A sure sign it is time to buy!
Now VLO is +1.34 and STO is +0.11 (after being down in the am). Sigh...

spread is just a differential between two points. In this case where you buy and where you sell. The simplest things can trip you up, it's why I try never to tie my shoes in a dimly lit room.

Community, lend me some insight. AGM up huge today on no news reported thru finviz or goog since 10-08-08. Why? will it last? is it too late to jump on?

Crack Spreads have been negative since Oct. 3. perhaps the market doesn't care until the next profit reporting cycle.

Contrarian action in UXG today and yesterday.

Could it be a takeover target at its super depressed current price?

Have sold into this strength, still with plenty more to unload at higher prices.

getting ready to exit my SLW

sv, kiron, yvrapx,

I am in the process of setting up TFSA for my clients ahead of the Jan time frame for initial deposits. These accounts are available to the broad financial services industry, not just banks, and can hold everything that is now permitted in an RRSP. The govt will track annual contribution room and when the 5K is not put in the holder will then have additional room for future contributions and apparently so advised on tax assessments, as is the case of RRSP room. All income and gains are tax free but losses from within the TFSA are not allowable offsets to non-TFSA gains so there is no partial recovery of TFSA losses through the tax system. Contribution room is increased by the amount of withdrawals. I am putting together some leverage strategies - by creating portfolios that will generate the annual 5K contributions to the TFSA, thereby sheltering the future taxation on income from the original large lump sum. Lots of great opportunities her for long term planning. I have no doubt that CTAB will be facilitating this for Canadian clients in the coming months but, of course, can't speak for Bill.

The day can't possibly end this high, could it?

It's nice thing to have, although really small, but you can see that TFSA is a nice tool for the sell side, banks are jumping all over to get the masses into this. So beware. Please do not forget to also mention that contributions are not tax deductible.

public health care is like road work:

we know it needs to get done, but when money is tight the best solution is to delay spending money.

people misunderstand why it takes 3-6 months for an MRI. a new machine costs say 500,000 plus about 500,000 million per year on maintenance which includes leasing a space, energy, repairs and salary for 2 MRI technicians.

1 million per year for a new mri inst much for the Ontario governement. the reason they delay new machines is because they pay $600-1200 for each new MRI performed.

with 10 machines in a province (hypothetical) they may pay for a total of 100,000 MRI scans per year, while people wait 3 months.

add in 15 machines and people only wait 2 months but they have to budget for 150,000 MRI scans each fiscal year.

these costs increases are too much on the system, they they delay expansion of the programs to reduce wait times in a meaninful way. the current wait time reductions you read about about number-magic done by hospitals.

if i bought an MRI in ontario w/ my own money , and opted to give MRI scans and charge exactly what all public institutions bill, the government would refuse my application, not because anything suspect but because they cant afford the additional expenditure. but they would never make this known, instead they would attack private health-care encroachment as this vile disease that threatens our system.

its still illegal to offer free MRI's in Ontario.
???

TerryC

Thanks for info

LVS up another 38 %.
Boy, wish I had a way yo identify such opportunities !!!

Craig,

I was priced out of US healthcare a long time ago. Fortunately, I lived close to Mexican border where a $20 bill used to cover most contingencies in both medical and dental.

Now as a U S citizen and non S.A. resident, I am on the South African health plan! And even if I repatriate myself to the USA, I'm keeping it!

$120 (last week it was $100!) per month for 2 of us, 100% hospitalization, no cap, no exclusions for my chronic conditions. I am even covered worldwide for up to 90 days at a time and a recent 1 week stay in a Thai hospital was routinely dealt with. I am getting a good percentage of my premium back every month now in the provided prescription drugs I am now having to ingest on a daily basis.

Is Bill's new website up and running yet????

re:opportunities

Here's a starting place.

http://rsi-trader.blogspot.com/

dr.cosa - Sounds like there might be some private opportunity for MRI in Canada... There are private MRI shops in the US where if you go out of system you pay out of pocket but save time. VAR was looking good at $40?

closed out of SLW at $3.58. bought at $2.85. no other reason for selling beyond not wanting to hold into earnings over the weekend. they report Monday.

Also looking at other stocks to buy this afternoon

Daily Report should be ok now.

FYI, the new website is in limited testing now and I expect it to be public in the near future.

SLV & SLW moving up again now.
Think that this time they have to make it, or else . . .

GLD just touched down at it's 50% fib around 70.70, looks to put in a quick sharp bounce, perhaps give a little helping pull to SLV.
Can't see GLD as bullish here no matter how hard I try. Maybe if it bases some more around this level.

USO still looks comatose.
Maybe they'll have to push it up some to help push up the S&P some more.

Bear flags still a'building in equities, this may well continue into Mon. - Tues., no hurry adding any puts.

Photogray
Your welcome, good luck.

Thanks korvus! Man, Gold is such a red-headed step child...

We're gonna repeat the European close today. Great end to a good week!

Bought 2 GLD 69 Nov. calls @ 5.20. (day trade)

Don't usually daytrade, this is just for fun.

Target for GLD is nest fib @ 77.80.
mental stop is break of today's low.

Russel 2000 is up 3.75%. Helene Meisler, one of the few I value on realmoney was talking about how breadth significantly improves when the R2K can outperform the S&P. She also thinks we have rally potential into through at least the first week of November.

Other things for which to be slightly cheerful:
1. Libor is coming down again
2. The yield curve is steepening
3. Two trades I started are actually not losing me money after holding them more than one day (ISYS,ANSS).

Above should have been "rally potential through at least the first week of November"

Finally!.... TSXcomp up

Here are some retrace targets for the major indices based on the '07 peak index values against the recent trough lows. I calculated the index levels that would represent the 38.2%, 61.8% (FIB) retracement levels of each index. I think they might provide useful short and long term targets:

38.2% 61.%
NasDaq composite 2016.26 2339.04
S&P 500 1121.06 1294.83
DJIA 10259.10 11794.57
R2K 600.28 698.12

Craig,
I think it was you that has mentioned CNSL. Do you still follow it. Yield looks very nice, BUT do you think its secure? Still have a position?
TIA

kaimu - "Our government will make sure you get the BILL!!!"

Looking at my portfolio and local home pricing makes me think I've already received some of the charges. It appears the "savers" have become the saviors. Socialism at work?

I don't believe the bear has had a say yet today. Maybe hibernating.

how are you guys playing the weekend? Monday open and potential Obama win Tuesday?

LVS is on a roll.

Interesting to hear Don Coxe, conservative, call Obama advisor Paul Volker the "most distinguished private sector public servant" and "none better".

Also mentioned Obama advisors "wise men".

neophyte
holding

YRI (5.80)
GNLB (1.22)
SLW (3.48)

Cyderman: CNSL still have an u/w position, would certainly buy (and did) near $9.00, although one never knows it seems to have based. I think the div is secure. I think BH has this one too.

re: Healthcare In Ontario, the Ontario Health Insurance Plan pays a fee which = a technical component (for machinery) + professional component (for the staff).

The Ontario government won't pay the technical component for a private clinic even if they had an MRI. They won't pay the technical component for a private GI clinic to do a endoscopy either. In the GI case they will pay the professional fee (but the people who setup the clinic have to pay for the machinery out of pocket!).

The idea is, if you setup private for-fee service then you will create a profit motive and patients will jump the queue (who have money). The people with money will get the best DRs (who'll leave the regular system for the money system). And you'll basically kill the public nature of the whole gig. I'm inclined to agree.

Finally, there is incidious waste in heallthcare. Left to their own volition patients often ask for unneeded procedures after reading the Readers Digest or Oprah. "I need a blah blah blah test" They want drugs or tests done, and arent satisfied with suggestions on lifestyle changes. People are obsessed about medical tests, and Drs are too (in the US imaging is basically instantly used). This leads to a massive runup in costs, and not provably better healthcare. Todays greatest problems are primary care problems (obesity, diet, stress) and one benefit in Canada is that by having people go to the Dr early (cause it is free) more acute downstream problems dont ramp up as much (like acute pneumonia, or chronic diabetes) - the downstream stuff is expensive. Where to spend the $?

I could write a book about this subject.

Changes need to be made in Canada. Medical imaging really is way behind, so find a creative way to fund it - especially considering people will pay. In the US, for example, MRIs are used at night on animals...that may not be the answer, but if there is $ and a demand, after a few years the problem should be solved. I think it will.

Trader say 10000 next week
going home for the day
good look

being on the wrong side of the LVS trade hurts at $13, however, it probably hurts more for those that entered at $10. that's my only solace. well, that and LVS's debt load is so great that they couldn't get anybody to service their debt so their founder had to do it. MGM just raised debt at 16%. and they're in better shape than LVS.

it's hard to trade a market that you know should be lower. following trends is probably easier i guess.

here's the rub, though, and is what is keeping me bearish: the median home price divided by median household income is still 4.0 vs. long term avg of 3.0. household income is going to go down b/c we're entering a recession and people are getting laid off. so the denominator in that equation goes down which means the ratio goes up. so for it to just revert to the mean, housing prices have to fall at least another 25%. the first 25% fall was pretty damn brutal i'd say. they can prop up housing as much as they want but people don't have the incomes to support higher home prices. inventory levels are still at 10.5 months (peaked at 11.5 months). average is a lot lower

Canadian junior merger and/or asset acquisition candidates - per recent comments:
Aquiline Resources, AG-Argentina
Corriente Resources,CU-Ecuador
Candente Resources, AU & AG-Per
Detour Gold, AU-Canada
South American Silver, AG-Bolivia
Noront Resources, NI,PT,CU-Canada
Osisko Mining, AU-Canada
Happy Trading All

vinod- yes, 10000 could be the new 'magnet,' just as 8000 was the old 'magnet'...

To those who monitor the market on a minute to minute basis, You have nerves of steel!

I tried today and am feeling giddy!!!!

The bear speaks, finally.

2nd
It is all psychology. I know how scary feeling can get.
I never been roller costar like this before,
Like pro are saying risk management is important.
I sold LVS and MGM and they still going up. I triple in LVS and double in MGM.
Best thing I learn is never to look back.

QID - in at 64.48, stop 63.5.

Sandy... it's easier than it looks... skill to stay in the coma for 8 hours helps :)

Don Coxe quoting Wired Magazine! Awesome

2nd
what else I notice now is airliners and oil have connection now
also second time in two week UAUA could't cross 16.. last week I sold at 16.00 was available 1t 10.30 this week. hit 16.00 agin today and falling back

NYU,,, Bring on the banana eater!!!!! PLease

"MONKEY" For a nice close into Halloween and the weekend!

"MONKEY" for positive changes to come soon in U.S and abroad!

AMEM!!!!

Tks

Let's go for it...think silverback...

Craig, thanks. I thought about putting in a stink bid but went for something just mildly under market, got a fill, now see my stinker would have filled. C'est la vie.

Who wants to hold long over the weekend ?

U.S. markets seem to be shedding the biggest part of their earlier gains.

Goldcorp down...$1.64cdn

GG selling off here into the close. despite dow being up there is a lot of red. may hold my cash position until Monday

Not sure what today's formation is called in candlesticks, but it's quite possibly not so bullish.

QID - kicked out at 64.96 trailing stop.

maybe they flush people out on monday before elections?

Goldcorp...down $ 2.07
I guess the street doesn't like their results

Power close

I hope more than anything that Number2Son is still holding ESLR.

the closing action remined me of most of october's closes.

we are back in the crapper w/ gold miners,
gold around $721 w/ the charts looking poor.

i still see no outright bullish scenario's for gold stocks are being made right now . they can barely move up w/ the S&P.

lets see if momentum takes hold of all markets next week during a possible run up. volume was thin today so ive tempered my thoughts either way on the closing direction.

"The bear speaks, finally."

Posted by: tango6 at October 31, 2008 3:22 PM

What Dow up "only" 164 points? Take that bear!

it works, man...

Todd, I'd agree to a certain extent, but given the week's gains would you not say that it's not overly bearish that we haven't completely tailspun down to losses at the end here?

I enjoy reading your comments. I generally consider myself a trend follower, or put another way, whenever I have stuck to a trend that's when I've been most successful. I have to get back to that. I just think that we're seeing a short term bullish look at the moment, similar to in the spring. It's on low volume, which has me worried for the intermediate term, but while prices are inching up I'll try and hang around in a few issues.

A little lipstick on that pig that was the Month of October-Thank God it's over.

Can't wait for the Santa Claus rally!

TTM, ESLR closed at session highs.

Have a great weekend and happy halloween to all..

SV

Billy Sundance - your list of junior producers

Great list. What would really help is filtering which are cashflow positive, which don't need to go to financial markets over the next year, and which have room to grow their production significantly.

I don't know where to get this info except stuying and calling each company. If you have a source for this info, it would really help me and others, I'm sure.

@Dave Hyde

Several thoughts:

The markets don't go down non-stop in a bear market, for sure. There are usually bear market rallies that are tradable, at least from a short term standpoint.

This bear has been far more fierce and harsh than some in recent memory, notwithstanding the '87 crash. The current market has seen such incredible volatility that only those professionals with the best timing and expertise have been able to skate through unscathed, let alone come out with a profit.

The larger trend is still down, until it changes, imo.

Those who feel they must trade these markets, should go back and read bsi87's comments from earlier today regarding how to allocate capital and control risk by setting stops to limit risk. He was spot on.

For me, a trader who typically misses the exact bottom and the exact top, (but who prefers that meaty middle trend), this is not a market to trade because the odds are not in my favor.

Too many govt. interventions messing with free markets; and then they do them all differently. Sometimes they back the senior preferreds, sometimes the bondholders, and then sometimes no one is spared. Too many unknowns.

For me, I'll watch and wait. Some think that the market will settle down and stabilize in the next 2-3 months, and then move higher once the new administration takes control and sets their agenda in the 1st quarter of '09.

That may very well be true. But I believe there's time to buy once the dust settles, and the odds are better in my favor.

Have a great weekend everyone and be safe.

Boss - congratulations, it was an up day I am happy to say and closing above 9,300 makes a nice formation on the chart. But my point was the bear did not really make a move all day long until 3pm when the market was up 235 points. One swipe and oops, there goes another 100 points.

I don't know if I'd want to be HOLDING Evergreen Solar but I wouldn't have minded selling it at the close:)

And it does look hopeful from here, I'd wager it will be on more watch lists next week than this.

Volume not impressibe though, just as the airlines rallied on low oil should oil rise Evergreen will pop nicely. I will stay on it.

GLD, SLV & SLW didn't make their moves today.

Sold 1/2 the extra SLW I had added today in the close (break even). Rest is a long term keep.

Decided to keep the GLD Nov. 69 calls over the weekend, setup still looks valid for a sharp bounce.
So I sold 1 GLD Nov. 74 @ 2.75 call to reduce the risk & the premium loss over the weekend.

This is generally speaking a good way to play short dated options for overnight keeping, but demands some finessing.

The idea is to lose at most 1/2 the capital in an options position, while the goal is always at least a double.
If you can manage that, you come out 25% ahead each time on the average.

IYR would have been the best short today.

Biggest surprise is that XLU utilities didn't rally and then sold off so much.

if anyone cares to know i am still 80% bullish, back to 100% cash, and waiting for my next wave.

A bit foggy regarding monday's open so i rather not hold any stocks over the weekend.

however making 25% this week on SLW was a nice bonus.

Best of luck to all.

RTP, POT were swept under the rug along with other commodities, soon they shall awake from the dead?

Also since bad earnings and no housing recovery 'till spring (it aint happening then either, but we don't "know" that yet) are already baked in, and since the market action is more favorable now, more buyers fewer sellers, after the election, no matter who wins, it could, (not will...could) set up for a bodacious Santa Clause Rally. But I would hate to see you owning stock on December 25th. Don't take it home for Christmas. Sell the stock into the rally and BUY Christmas presents:)

One clarification from my earlier post, obviously the market did not fall as far in '87 as it has in this bear market.

I was referring to the the suddenness of the move in '87 (the 1 day plunge, specifically) versus the multi-month drop that has occurred in this one.

Thanks Todd.

A good weekend to all.

Dave

Jock - I was thinking of putting an Excel spreadsheet to collect some general info on the junior producers. Aside from ozs. produced I wanted to look at cash flow, debt/cash/investments, positions, targeted production, country of producing mines, exploration activity, outstanding shares/option data.

Any other suggestions/improvements would be welcomed. Perhaps if we can come up with a basic outline we could get a working spreadsheet together.

I find that since they are such a volatile bunch, being able to observe the juniors producer shares as a group is better than trying to zero in on one company. A collective approach allows me to look at collective share movement,volume, and trends.

-------------------------

Todd

I definetly agree with your take in your 4:17 post. No point in getting caught up in market hysteria of thinking you will miss the big move. The market will have plenty more glory and despair to dish out in the next year.

In the last week, almost everything has rallied 15% (give/take) off the market bottom. One trouble is, since the rising tide has lifted all boats this week, it is still not obvious which sectors will lead the pack in the next phase.......which is especially important for a "swing" trade time frame.

"... believe that for all its faults, and there are a great many serious ones, the Cdn healthcare system is one of the finest in the world."

Would you say that after waiting 12 hours in a hallway because there are no beds? The system likely changed somewhat since your heyday as a nationally renowned consultant.

shark - If you were a bettin' man looking for some DXO vs SSO vs QLD, which would you jump on 1st, 2nd, 3rd?

Craig,

I'm unsure what your 9:12 AM post refers to. What does my income bracket (far less than $250k) have to do with the quality of gov. data? What's with the Reagan era, etc.?

In what way do I benefit? I have to admit you got my curiosity going?

------

My point was in regard to whose stuff Obama is promising to others.

Think of it this way —
A man is on his way into a resturant and sees a homeless person sitting on the curb.

As he is reading the menu, he thinks to himself, "When I pay my bill and think I'll give the change to the guy out front."

The owner takes his order the guy notices an Obama for President button on his shirt. Tucked into the menu there is an Obama for President flyer outling his promise to fairly redistrbute the wealth.

The food is great, excellent service a nice atmosphere.

When he pays his bill he mentions to the owner that as he ate he was touched by Obama's sharing the wealth policy and, rather than leave a tip for the fine eating experience, he is going to give the $5 tip to the guy out front who obviously needs it more.

The customer is full and feels generous. The guy out front is much happier. The guy who lost his tip is probably not.

Billy Sundance said:

"One trouble is, since the rising tide has lifted all boats this week, it is still not obvious which sectors will lead the pack in the next phase.......which is especially important for a "swing" trade time frame."

Very true. Those new leading sectors where investors will want to be positioned will likely begin to be revealed once the election is over and we get into early '09.

The question remains, has the market currently discounted the full effects of the global economic downturn ? That's where technical analysis comes in. Watch price and volume.

ALOHA !!

Here's one company that is done with the USA and the SEC ... Hopefully it will be the first of many!

READ ON:
FARALLON FILES TO DEREGISTER FROM THE SEC IN THE USA AND CHANGES ITS FISCAL YEAR END

October 31, 2008 - Farallon Resources Ltd. (TSX: FAN) (“Farallon” or the “Company”) announces that it has filed today a Form 15F with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC") with the intention of voluntarily terminating the registration of its common shares under section 12(g) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”). Farallon expects that this termination of registration will become effective
90 days after its filing with the SEC. As a result of this filing, Farallon’s reporting obligations with the SEC, including its obligations to file annual reports on Form 20-F and reports on Form 6-K, will immediately be
suspended. The Company’s shares will no longer be quoted in the United States on the Over-the-Counter Bulletin Board under the symbol ‘FRLLF’ once the termination of registration is effective.
Farallon will continue to comply with its Canadian continuous disclosure obligations by making filings with the applicable Canadian securities regulators via the System for Electronic Document Analysis and Retrieval
(SEDAR) at www.sedar.com. These continuous disclosure filings will include the Company’s consolidated financial statements prepared in accordance with Canadian generally accepted accounting principles and technical reports on its mineral properties prepared in accordance with Canadian National Instrument 43-101, Farallon’s common shares will continue to trade in Canada on the TSX under the symbol “FAN”.
Farallon is current with all reporting requirements under the Exchange Act and is not listed on any U.S. exchange. In determining to terminate the registration of its common shares under the Exchange Act, Farallon considered that administrative burdens and costs associated with being a U.S. reporting company have significantly increased in the past few years, particularly in light of SEC Sarbanes-Oxley requirements. The
preparation time and costs associated with preparing U.S. filings and meeting SEC regulatory requirements are substantial, and overall the Company’s management believes that these administrative burdens and their associated costs far outweigh any benefits derived from the Company's registration with the SEC. The Company also announces that it will change its fiscal year end to December 31, from its current fiscal year end of June 30. Farallon is making this change to align its fiscal year more closely with the industry standard and to reflect the Company’s transition from an exploration to a production company. This change will take
place immediately with the six months ending December 31 2008 bridging into the new year end.

ON BEHALF OF THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS
J.R.H. (Dick) Whittington
President and CEO

http://tinyurl.com/645uuz

IF he wins what he would focus on,

1. financial crisis "Plumbing" (tax cuts for 95% of working Americans and 2nd stimulus package)

2. energy independence (5M potential American jobs) Solar, wind, bio, nat gas

3. education

etc.

I will be thinking of ways to profit short term from this.

Grym - Pondering those circumstances, and assuming they were repeated on a regular basis, I would assume the customer would eventually wind up paying more for his meals. Sounds like inflation at the expense of feeding the homeless. I'm left wondering if this enables more homelessness, or helps to eliminate homelessness.

Grym: The point is that no one is re-distributing anything from you because of your tax bracket, like me. You will get a tax cut.

You are one of the regular work a day guys that's been taking it in the shorts to give people making nearly a quarter of a million dollars a year a tax cut. You and I are the homeless guys out front.
You have been sharing the nasty impact of this recession on your friends and family with the blog. How many have or are making $200,000?
My bet is not many. Those that don't?
They're out front with us too. :>)

All that is happening is the uber rich are going to pay more and instead of trickle down it's going to be more like the 90's where we all did better. When the poor folks out front do better on their own accord and hard work then it's good for everyone.

The plan the last 8 years has been to give it to the wealthy and they would genrate business through enlightened investment and lead us to nirvana. I think we have now proven that doesn't work well for regular working people.

i've always thought 'redistribution of wealth' was a crock...what needs to be equally distributed is the OPPORTUNITY to create wealth (and of course, that includes a level playing field in the markets)...

personally, the homeless person in the above example is likely to be 90-100% responsible for his "plight." why is it that so many immigrants who relocate to the US end up owning their own businesses and sending their kids to college, in spite of knowing little English and starting with no money?

naturally, i would tip the person responsible for the great service...i would give a nod to the guy on the curb (assuming he's alert and not already nodding to himself), and return to the restaurant often for the great food...

there are unsurpassed opportunities in the US for education, and for the most part, they are available at little to no cost...those who do not avail themselves, what can i say?

Craig,

I have never, ever seen a noticeable cut in my taxes. I am retired, BTW, and paying on my Keogh (now a SEP) deferred retirement savings.

During the Reagan "tax cuts" my self-employment tax always increased far more than any drop in income tax. Although since my income fluctuated so much with the economy it would be nearly impossible to establish what my regular income was from one year to the next. At times my investment gains taken out did my business income.

I am fully expecting my taxes will increase along with anyone not actually on welfare. Each year since I have been on Social Security the Medicare costs have risen and benefits have diminished. (an additonal de facto tax)

If in fact the wealthy get less (which I totally disbelieve) the cost of what they have already pirated will out last my lifetime by many years. All of the much touted gains to come to the nation and ordinary people were pure BS.

The sacred Free Market and globalization cost millions their jobs and gave management bonuses and stock options. The 2004 American Jobs Creation Act — was a salve for big business to make up for subsidies dropped to placate Europe. The jobs created were in no why designated to be in the US and continued to be exported. The businesses got a tax break to encourage them to bring home the profits from foreign operations.

Behind every offer of candy watch out for the Boogie Man — all is not what's as advertised. (The $200,000 figure for example.)

If I were a betting man...Ha!

Let me study 'em over the weekend and I will register an opinion if I have one, my feathered friend.

Alright, it's a Friday, although it finished in the green so you should all be feeling somewhat better. :>)
Nevertheless....it's an allegorical gentlemen. There is no poor guy in front of a restaurant.

I would say that equal treatment of taxation on all levels would be a prerequisite to equal opportunity. Someone is going to have to pay for tuition and loans. Regular folks aren't using trust funds. And that State College sheepskin isn't going to get you where a Yale scroll will. Equal is relative.

Bull/Bear: 30/70.

E*Trade Canada Technical Analysis Summit - Saturday, November 1, 2008, 8:00am - 8:30am.

Check at CSTA booth for table sitting for Team Cara. See you there. [069]

ALOHA !!

How long has this "welfare state" been going on? Read the following and you will surely notice some similarities to Rome and modern America!

"The budget should be balanced, the Treasury should be refilled, public debt should be reduced, the arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled, and the assistance to foreign lands should be curtailed lestbecome bankrupt. People must again learn to work, instead of living on public assistance." … Cicero - 55 BC

What's this about CHANGE?

My investment account is starting to look like I got a "Divorce" down over 50%,I was(still) way to heavy in commodities.
Happy Halloween everyone and don't' forget we all get an extra 1 hour sleep Saturday night so enjoy your extra time.
Skylane

ALOHA !!

PUBLIC ASSISTANCE ...

Those who abuse PUBLIC ASSISTANCE most are not the ones standing in unemployment lines or handing the supermarket cashier EBT cards, its the US Banks and the US Corporations and of course US government employees, mainly the GANG OF 545!!!!

If government checks stopped the entire of America would stop on a dime! That's how bad it is!!!

UP POMPEII!!!

ROME IS ONLY AS HONEST AS ITS MONEY!!!

Dr. Cosa

I had to wait six months for an mri two years ago, now im getting it done in less than one month, some things are getting better.

Things never change.....

Corrupted by wealth and power, your government is like a restaurant with only one dish. They've got a set of Republican waiters on one side and a set of Democratic waiters on the other side. But, no matter which set of waiters brings you the dish, the legislative grub is all prepared in the same Wall Street kitchen. Hughie Long (1935)

If gold was any good, they'd be buying it quietly so they could sell it to you at $2000, not pimping it at $700

skylane:
Had a friend that stated this was worse than divorce -- his net worth has dropped by 50% and he still has his wife!

Jim Sinclair says gold will skyrocket if goldbugs will order and take into possession 21,000 bars (100-oz ea). Jim's standing formula (2006) for peek gold did not include this requirement.
Tall order, but we'll know who to blame gold's failure upon if it isn't carried out.

Folks,
I just breezed by thru this article on Minyanville as I was leaving my office this afternoon and I think you have to read it. It is a powerful piece summing up where we are today. No wonder we are all on edge.

Op-Ed: Baby Boomers Led Us Into Fiscal, Moral Bankruptcy

http://tinyurl.com/57nxag

Have a good evening. I'm hoping it doesn't get too scary the way the days have been. Hallowe'en ho!

Try this link if that didn't work
http://tinyurl.com/5ccmuc

Skylane, I've got that beat. I cut my last wife loose for 50% and now I have a clean slate.

The Canadian Venture Exchange would appear to be in a pretty solid uptrend with considerable upside potential.

http://tinyurl.com/698h8d

I find it exhausting playing individual names, though. Does anyone know a good way to play the index?

Fantastic article westcoaster, thanks for posting.

ALOHA !!

ITS THE BABYBOOMERS FAULT article posted by westcoaster certainly has some valid finger pointing at boomers but the article misses the main reason why boomers or any other generation during this window would be able to create so much credit. ITS THE MONEY STUPID! Had the Greatest Generation not have fallen prey to the JP Morgan led banking cartel in 1913 we would not have a fiat monetary system from which HUGE amounts of credit has been created out of thin air.

The very last sentence of the article completely ruins the whole idea of fiscal responsibility. Here it is ...

"... possibly pay more taxes and get less benefits, for the good of the country."

The problem is BIG GOVERNMENT. You do not punish BIG GOVERNMENT by paying MORE taxes. More taxes only makes BIG GOVERNMENT ... BIGGER! You make Washington DC tow the line by forcing them to start reducing the size of government and thereby the expenditures. You make the GANG OF 545 live on less! As I see it every State in America has some of the same agencies that the US government does, such as a Dept Of Agriculture. THAT'S DOUBLE REGULATION AND DOUBLE THE BUREAUCRACY!!! Eliminate the US Dept of Agriculture and let the States run their own as they see fit. What can Washington DC possibly tell us here in Hawaii about coqui frogs? I doubt anybody in the US Dept of Agriculture in Washington has even heard of coqui frogs! Its the same with the US Dept of Education. Does Washington know better how to educate kids in Berkeley,CA or Hilo, HI or Miami, FL? Decentralize the Federal Government and not only cut taxes but eliminate taxes. Let Washington DC suffer and struggle to get by for a change! Let the GANG of 545 know what it feels like to be broke! Make them pay for their own fiscal errors! I guarantee you the American citizens will pay.

As you guys know my pet peeve is the US FED ... We can completely eliminate that useless cartel of private banks! Only by bribing the entire US GONgress in 1913 could that money mafia have existed! Politicians are today no less bribed and shackled by the banking cartel headed by Benny "Shalom" Bernanke and Hanky Panky Paulson. What does the US FED do that the US TREASURY cannot? Besides, if we owned out own money again then there would be no need to pay interest. Why should the US Banks benefit from 0% FED RATES, especially since our elected leaders have decided that Americans should spend their futures in order to BAILOUT insolvent banks so that they can prey upon us more and more! COME ON ... 16% credit card rates!!! Even 6% mortgage rates is loan sharking at the current FED RATES!

So, YES, the babyboomers have had it good, but the US government has had it WAY BETTER and the US BANK have been on a FREE RIDE since 1913!

DON'T TAX ... AXE!!! I dare say we could cut 50% of the US government spending and not even notice! A good start would be the Pentagon! Do we need a military base in Uraguay?

ALL OUR BEST THINKING GOT US HERE ...

[Bill Cara note:

Having military bases around the world was originally a combined political and military decision back in the post-WWII era. At that time, the US was a debtor nation, the US Fed was the world's banker and the USD was the reserve currency during post-war economic renewal. Today, none of this is true. Back then, the US military required regional geographic deployment of its forces to protect American interests. Today, those forces are both different in type and mobility and the companies they protect are now widely held by global interests (unless its Dick Cheney and friends). So, on any level, there is no need and no ability to pay for globally dispersed forces. If Pres. Obama (God willing) were to do the right thing, he would retract all non US-based forces (except temporary US-led UN or NATO forces) and commit the same funding to the US research, development and manufacturing of weapons and defense systems needed to defend the country for the next 20 to 40 years. Could you imagine the boost that would give to the US economy? By spending USD at home there would be a massive increase in tax revenue as well. By agreement with Europe and other nations, anti-nuclear program financial controls could be placed on any non-nuclear power that would ensure the possibility of long-term stability in the Middle East. Regional (not US) diplomacy should resolve the North Korean problem. America needs to spend all its available resources to re-building America for the benefit of its own people, which includes their most basic needs of food, shelter and safety. Clearly, the TV coverage in New Orleans of the whole Katrina disaster showed the world that America has its own problems to fix. Deep in the hole financially and morally, they better start soon.]

ALOHA !!

ALL OUR BEST THINKING GOT US HERE !!!

Think about that ...

On CNBC and CNN they trot out expert after expert in any field or financial sector you can think of! Look at all the Harvard and Princeton PhDs and MBAs sitting in Washington DC, either as elected leaders or on cabinets or lobbyists or paid advisers. Look at all the geniuses of the past who the media crowned as experts and then look where we are today!

Look at some of the monumental failures of the "experts". If you have never seen the IRS Tax Codes then I suggest you go to a library or tax attorney's office and look. Its like 35 Bibles! Pages and pages of regulations designed to make those least able to pay taxes pay the most. Then look at all the other rule books like the SEC regulations ... OSHA ... Building Codes ... Public Works ... Business Practices Codes ... Tort Law ... US Supreme Court Rulings ... Patents & Copyrights ... IT GOES ON AND ON ... Regulations put out by government for every possible endeavor you can think of! We are regulated more than any other society that has existed on the face of the Earth. Yet all these regulations have choked off productivity to the degree that America is no longer productive enough to compete in World markets. We sub that effort out to China and India! We certainly will never get back on our feet via Keynesian economics of spending oneself to prosperity. We actually have to save again and be productive. However given our current fiat monetary system saving is no longer a means to an end. Without a store of value to our money saving will never be a productive activity. And that is by design and you can see the results here on Bills Blog ... More people than ever now depend on the stock market for their future retirement or their daily survival. That is by design ...

In essence all the geniuses and experts in the World have produced nothing better than global bankruptcy for the masses where debtors prison is a virtual reality. Back to square one ...

I AM VOTING FOR RON PAUL ... Plainly, the other choices have yet to earn my vote!

2nd,
I have heard it said that we are all a few bad breaks away from the street. I have some experience with a program at local churches that provides meals and a warm place to stay in the winter for the homeless. Winter nights in Ontario can be brutal. Some of the guests are from out of town, have jobs, but don't have enough money for first and last month's rent. Others suffer from mental illness and/or addictions. Occasionally we have had families stay the night.

How much of this is their fault? It is probably a combination of poor choices, unfortunate circumstances and lack of a family safety net - to different degrees for each person. I have an extended family member who probably would have ended up on the street and died there if it hadn't been for caring and constant family support.

I have often thought of the immigrant families you mention (including my own family history) and how they started with nothing but determination and hope. Perhaps it is those two qualities that are missing from those who we think should be able to work and make a life for themselves.

What does a just society look like? The answer has always had something to do with redistribution of wealth. It is a matter of how much, for whom and in what ways. For example, we all pay for education whether we have children or not, because it benefits us economically and socially to have an educated populace. Every culture (and political party) answers the question of social justice differently.

That said, I am a fan of small government. I don't think it is healthy for people to look to government as a child would to a parent. The purpose of government should be to provide a framework in which we can be productive and when needed, help each other.

I totally agree with Kaimu's post and Bill's response.
The last one is more about lawyers becoming politicians, a trend we could curtail to our better health and prosperity. The liberating language of the Constitution and Bill of Rights is stifled by the limiting language of most of this supposed "law". I have no iea why we put up with it, except we love to limit others liberty and forget we limit ourselves in the process. All tht law is about controlling others' liberty.

Aside from axing the Fed, the government expenditures and waste are the meat of the matter and we need to get busy cutting those useless expenditures in favor of those that are investments in our future productivity.

Cutting our bloated military would bring endless jeering from the ultra-right, but there is no reason we need to spend more than the rest of the modern world combined while we go broke, hungry and ill....Etu Cicero?

Would'nt the boost in the US economy gained from the domestic investment be more than offset by the extreme losses to US multinational conglomerates, Bill? Aren't these bases and forces overseas, predominately, in the business of protecting U.S. economic interests overseas?

Baby Boomers are to blame? It's always amazing to me that so many people want to blame Boomers as if the "Roaring 20's" had no excesses, nor corruption, and our grandparents only went to church socials. The Fed? It was created in 1913, and is a miracle of unbiased oversight almost a hundred years.

Yet, on the same page as II read the article posted by west coaster, I see this quote posted by maggie:
"Things never change.....

Corrupted by wealth and power, your government is like a restaurant with only one dish. They've got a set of Republican waiters on one side and a set of Democratic waiters on the other side. But, no matter which set of waiters brings you the dish, the legislative grub is all prepared in the same Wall Street kitchen. Hughie Long (1935)"

Let's see now, 1935? 1920's? 1913? Boomers weren't even born then. Hmm, maybe some people might better look to place the blame elsewhere - just maybe a national willingness to put up with only 2 Parties might be a starting place.

It's a global economy and there are inintended consequences.

For instance, we do a great deal of business with China and we have a lot of U.S. Companies investing a lot of capital there, yet we don't have one military base in China. Even if we did, what do you suppose we might do to protect our economic interests there? The economic interest argument with few exceptions doen't hold water any longer.

For the most part all of these countries want investment and want a better standard of living.
They don't want the crime, corruption, bullying, prostitution and political backlash that military bases bring. There is a pretty clear difference. Military bases are not productive, they are an expense for all involved.

We will still need bases near place like the Persian Gulf and the Straights of Hormuz, but the vast majority of these bases are counterproductive and redundant. The sooner we can become energy self sufficient the sooner we can close a lot of bases and save a lot of empire booty. Why for instance, do we need Guantanamo? Bases in Japan?
Bases on ally soil? We are clearly over-extended.

Think about big deflation, people are not buying so goods pile up in warehouse and merchant lower price. And cut employee.
Unemployed people cut back in spending
And company do not invest to produce more because there is no demand and this cycle goes on is big deflationary
. Recent price movement in gold is telling us this story other wise gold price would have zoom higher because. We are working overtime printing dollar at D.C. instead gold price went lower.
Also in some country company can not hire and fire the people, if they do it there will be unrest and will create political problem. So, politician will put pressure not to fire the employee and that will be bad for their individual company.
Last deflationary period in Japan gave birth to temp. Employee and contract employee
Without benefit and this unknown employment picture resulted in people cutting back and not spending resulting in prolonging deflation.
Now there are over 25% of employee are in these category in Japan and we have imported this system in USA.

My company outsources many departments last year like Mail room/security/printing and mailing/cleaning and custodian. Give you an example, one of employee working for 30 year in mail suddenly became contract employee getting $12/HR and his medical premnium double lost all vacation and many other benefits. All of these outsource depart employee makes $12/hr. and their paycheck shrunk. Are they going for shopping and helping economy?
More of S&P Company is doing this

Sentiment Charts - Mostly positive moves this week to some degree. The SPX bullish%, weekly, was so positive as to actually be “strange”, but that’s just mho. The only fly in the ointment that I can actually point to in all this positiveness is the weekly “flow of funds” which I think that Bill also mentioned in his write up..

How can a positive week (until Oct 29) result from:
“Equity Fund Outflows -$2.7 Bil; Taxable Bond Fund Outflows -$3.9 Bil
xETFs - Equity Fund Outflows -$2.3 Bil; Taxable Bond Fund Outflows -$3.5 Bil”
http://tinyurl.com/3fpbfw

Unless, of course, someone is “painting the tape” for EOM results, or for political purposes, but that’s just mho.

Next week? Write in Ron Paul and vote ALL incumbents out of office. The only hope we have is to send a message that the real thinking people, the “undecideds”, are growing large enough to make a difference in the future and therefore must be offered some real change from the PTB.

Redistribution and homelessness:

One is not the solution to the other. Only a candidate could make a case for it. Only the naive would vote based on such a bit of fantasy.

However, some government programs (like redistribution, well-meaning theoretically) have contributed to the numbers of homeless, at least in Illinois.

A good friend (now retired) was director of a local mental health facility with a wide range of mentally ill residents. About 15 or 20 years ago, as a budget reducing function, our governor decided that any patient whose illness was controllable by drug maintenance should be released into the general population. A total of more than 400,000 people qualified.

What anyone with an once of imagination knew would happen — did. Without the meds administered directly to them on schedule, most eventually could not afford them or chose to ignore the need. Now we are paying far more with the addition of homeless shelters (it's cold here if sleeping outside for about half the year) the emergency rooms are overloaded, the police are busier, on and on we go.

Nearly each year the budget is more stressed and agencies within the last year have now cut services to people who were being treated as walk-ins. Can anyone picture where this will lead?

Would you employ a person with a mental history, poorly dressed, who smells really bad and will not be expected to be reliable?

If these people are considered not too bright, where does that leave the government?

"I have heard it said that we are all a few bad breaks away from the street."

kiron-

bad breaks- we all know about those...it's our response to the (inevitable) bad breaks that determines outcomes...and the "determination and hope" that you mention is a good start...

i really believe that one's attitude sets off a chain of thoughts/activities/behaviors/events that can in fact create success out of tragedy (for self-destructive types, attitude also does a beautiful job of trashing success with often tragic consequences)...

having spent a few months on the street (albeit voluntarily) early in life, i was well aware not all of the 'transients' were directly responsible for landing in the shadows and shelters of LA, but come on, man- there are major differences between those who take responsibility for getting off the streets (and they get off in a hurry), and those who remain...

bad breaks can be overcome...in terms of attitude adjustment, it's almost as 'cookbook' as fixing bad brakes...

I find this interestingly timeless:

"The characteristics of the American journalist consist in an open and coarse appeal to the passion of his readers; he abandons principles to assail the characters of individuals, to track them into private life, and to disclose all their weaknesses and vices.

It cannot be denied, that the political effects of this extreme license of the press tend indirectly to the maintenance of public order.

The personal opinions of editors have no weight in the eyes of the public: what they seek in a newspaper is a knowledge of the facts, and it is only by altering or distorting those facts, that a journalist can contribute to the support of his own views.

When many organs of the press adopt the same line of conduct, their influence becomes irresistible; and public opinion, perpetually assailed from the same side,eventually yields."

Alexis de Tocqueville, "Democracy in America" (1831)

[Bill Cara note:

Having military bases around the world was originally a combined political and military decision back in the post-WWII era. At that time, the US was a debtor nation, the US Fed was the world's banker and the USD was the reserve currency during post-war economic renewal. Today, none of this is true ... ]

Bill, I think you meant to write that the US had become a creditor nation in the aftermath of World War II.

The Imperial process had begun somewhat earlier, with the seizing of Spain's Pacific and Caribbean empire in 1898, the break up of Colombia yielding Panama and the Zone besides the spoils Germany's former Pacific colonies after Versailles.

But the Imperial (oil) policy has really run amok since then!

By the way, this weekend Thailand stands on the precipice. Thaksin's puppet Government has allowed a mass rally of up to 100,000 Red Shirts, bussed in from the provinces to hear their convicted leader speak to them from exile.
If these masses do not board the busses afterwards, count on major stories emanting from Bangkok on Monday.
The question I have is whether Thaksin is regarded as a favourite son by the Chinese or as a running dog of capitalism. If Thaksin's puppet government falls this week, we will find out if the Chinese pulls the rug from the ever levitating Thai economy.

2nd_ave:

i think if you look at the majority of people who's lives were cut down because of bad breaks you will find certain recurring patterns:

1. unstable and/or unloving home growing up
2. addictive behaviour re: booze/drugs/gambling
3. ambitious but lazy. a deadly combination.

Definitions - Because now I'm observing apparently "manufactured" words appearing, I'll manufacture some definitions for sake of argument:

Stag-deflation: A severe or prolonged recession otherwise referred to as an economic depression. A rare but extreme form of recession, a depression is characterized by abnormal increases in unemployment, restriction of credit, shrinking output and investment, numerous bankruptcies, reduced amounts of trade and commerce, as well as highly volatile relative currency value fluctuations, mostly devaluations. Price deflation or hyperinflation are also common elements of a depression. A common rule of thumb for a depression is a 10 percent decline in gross domestic product (GDP). The corresponding rule of thumb for recession is two quarters of negative GDP growth. Using these definitions, the threshold for depression is vastly more severe than that for recession. A GDP decline of more than 10 percent has not occurred in the United States since the 1930s.

Strategies for moving an economy out of a recession vary depending on which economic school the policymakers follow. While Keynesian economists may advocate deficit spending by the government to spark economic growth, supply-side economists may suggest tax cuts to promote business capital investment. Laissez-faire economists may simply recommend the government remain "hands off" and not interfere with natural market forces. Populist economists may suggest that benefits for consumers, in the form of subsidies or lower-bracket tax reductions are more effective, and serve a double purpose including relieving the suffering caused by a recession.

Boomers to blame...

i'm not sure where the blame lies, and even less sure it's useful to point out who dropped the cigarette in the midst of fighting the fire-> it was the dry weather, high temperatures, and Santa Ana winds that were really the problem (and personally, i think it was greenspan who recklessly dropped the cigarette knowing what the consequences might be)...

I agree with the closing paragraph:

"It’s time to live within your means, distinguish between needs and wants, reduce debt, save 10% of your income, make sure your kids get a good education, show compassion for your fellow man, and possibly pay more taxes and get less benefits, for the good of the country."

...but I think most Boomers have been doing that for the past 25 years...in fact, I believe most Boomers are completely aligned with David Walker-> my colleagues/friends and I are all concerned about the deficits in our 'entitlement' programs, our children's futures, and our fellow citizens...in fact, I'm even "OK" with the need for a recession and/or retracement in the market indexes as natural consequences of the excesses of the past twenty years-> I moved to the Bay Area twenty years ago with a negative net worth-> now I'm married and we have a seven-figure net worth, and not because my wife and I earned obscene amounts of money for pushing paper...we saved diligently, we invested in real estate at the lows, we used common sense in exiting the market in 2000, we own 70% of our home and sensibly financed the remainder with a fixed 5.5% mortgage-> i can honestly say the Boomers I know pretty much did the same...so we benefited earlier from the real estate and market booms, and now we're content to take hits on both as part of the same cycles we participated in when they were going up...the average Boomer is NOT the problem

dr.cosa- so basically, those with character defects, raised by parents with character defects (most children raised in unstable or unloving homes, i would wager, turn out fine), or in need of therapy for what are (currently) labeled addictive illnesses...and, as someone pointed out earlier, those with real mental illnesses...i'm not a mental health expert, but i would think changing our national healthcare policies to ensure affordable treatment for all of the above, as well as removing the stigma associated with all of the above, might be ways to begin altering attitudes here...

It's the housing market(or so we're told), isn't it?

Let's say you own a house worth $250K. Your next-door neighbor has a similar house and he gets a principal readjustment on his loan of minus 15 percent. Congratulations, your house is now worth $121,500. Why? Because today, house appraisals push loan values, but when the government steps in, revised loan values will push appraisals:

Appraiser; "I appraise your house at $250,000.

You: "Great! That's what I'll put it on the market for."

Buyer: "I'll pay your price if I get financing approved."

Bank to buyer of your home: "The next door house's principal value just got reduced by 15 percent. So we will lend you $180,625." (($250K*.80)-15%, and more likely minus 20%)

Buyer: "I don't have $70,000 for a down payment!"

Bank: "Sorry."

Your real-estate agent: "Credit is too tight to sell your house for $250,000. I think you should lower the price."

Sorry, I meant "Congratulations, your house is now worth $212,500."

I am still waiting for SLW (cdn) to come to the $3.60 range.

Any views on Northgate Explorations as a possible buy? It had drop at the close yesterday.

Kaimu's got it right; guvmint is the problem. Put guvmint together with Tocqueville's view on bureaucracy along with special interest, and here comes the Exxon Valdez steaming into port.

Anyway...Bill makes the point of dissembling the bases and redirecting funding and industry. Sounds good, but the guvmint is the biggest employer both directly and indirectly in the country. How many people(voters) are they willing to throw out of work? What does a stumbling economy do with them? What happens to the shares of those companies (I hear Kaimu whispering, Lockheed Martin, Lockheed Martin)in peoples' pension funds and 401k's (hehehe, what 401k's)when you do this...Although likely to be the right thing to do in the long-run, how do you get this tanker off the collision course?

Grym, my favorite is when Reagan cut funding for all the mental hospitals with the same basic result as your story.....except the one guy that was camped out in So. Cal. and started a massive multi-billion $ fire that decimated vast portions of L.A. and Ventura Counties.

Penny wise, dollar foolish.

"Normal" people, that is, people that recognize positive and negative reinforcement, quickly do what 2nd suggests by nature. Gainful employment and proper housing is positively self reinforcing. Living in destitution on the street is negatively self reinforcing for normal people. The remainder are likely in need of mental health assistance and probably a huge associated self medicating/drug treatment program. Then there has to be a plan to make these people productive citizens otherwise relapse is assured.

Does anyone here have a favorite link for tracking global temperatures? I found this one from the University of Alabama:

http://www.nationalpost.com/893554.bin

It was a mistake redirecting all those people into non-productive government keep busy jobs to begin with. It's going to take time weaning them off the junk.
Military keep busy jobs are the worse kind because just like all other government employees, they feel the need to do something no matter how unproductive. And when it's the military dreaming up jobs, you get Iraq and all kinds of crazy new missions or sovereign nations to antagonize. Or they toss it over the the dreamers at the Whitehouse and play military roulette. Can you say 'military industrial complex'? Click.

So it has to be done but I don't think it can be done cold turkey. We need the job patch.

Halloween fun: Many burial plots are going for 20% off, as cremation plans are up by 50%. Maybe now is the time to get in on the "ground" floor!

http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=923190

An article that believes there may be some oil sands at the end of a rainbow stretching to California:

http://www.financialpost.com/most_popular/story.html?id=924273

Homelessness - As human population expands and competition for resources intensifies, the homeless population issue will expand as well. Stop wasting tax dollars and redirect the money towards worthy projects before proposing to the people additional tax burden.

Pookie's Theorm: The reason we are in this predicament is because government has grown too large and too powerful in all the wrong ways. The roots are firmly planted in the spoils of fiat.

recession- for those of you with 'entrepreneurial' inclination, think i mentioned a couple of weeks ago that a recession is the perfect time to launch a business...each of you will have your own areas of interest, of course...right now, there are going to be friends/family members out of work, or having financial problems, and very open to looking at income-generating ideas...we've got a couple of groups together already, and working on very viable projects...without giving away any ideas, let me just say you don't need to be very sophisticated or esoteric in your ideas-> there are very basic services and/or products that can be supplied on a local level; start there, and if you're good at meeting those needs, the business will expand rapidly...

inclinationS...

The following post by Bill, as an addendum to kaimu's post at November 1, 2008 2:18 AM, is so on the mark. I have thought this myself for some time. So, well written. I hope this scenario is played out. It is time.

"If Pres. Obama (God willing) were to do the right thing, he would retract all non US-based forces (except temporary US-led UN or NATO forces) and commit the same funding to the US research, development and manufacturing of weapons and defense systems needed to defend the country for the next 20 to 40 years. Could you imagine the boost that would give to the US economy? By spending USD at home there would be a massive increase in tax revenue as well. By agreement with Europe and other nations, anti-nuclear program financial controls could be placed on any non-nuclear power that would ensure the possibility of long-term stability in the Middle East. Regional (not US) diplomacy should resolve the North Korean problem. America needs to spend all its available resources to re-building America for the benefit of its own people, which includes their most basic needs of food, shelter and safety."

NT- i agree..we will never run out of 'good' reasons to be in Iraq, just as our kids will never run out of good reasons for the things they want..someone needs to look at the big picture and make a clear argument for/against, and based on what we can afford...if the voters in this country want to be in Iraq, so be it; are we clear that's what they want?

CP,

I think it is safe to assume the customer is going to wind up paying more for his meals anyway. Plus we end up paying for the homeless guy whether he is there due too laziness, mental incapacity or because his job just left for China, India or the next new cheaper labor market.

Even those wonderful new information, hi tech, "better paying" jobs which were to replace the old tech ones which made labor intensive, salable products have been finding cheaper labor than our newly graduate college kids can supply.

In my lifetime (pre-boomer) the US legal population is up around 2.5 times. We save people at both ends of the life span even with all the abortions. I guess this is at least part of the road rage —up, patience — down kid of world we live in. We've all seen or read of experiments in which the number of rats in a given area alters behavior.

Maybe were due for a completion of the cycle which ran about a century ago. The "Gay Nineties" (some may need to check for an earlier def.), WWl, a period of prosperity and naiveté, self-centered period which was thought would never end, the Great Depression and... WWll.

It does reduce the population, but is a little extreme — like instead of dieting — just cutting off your head.

We are a slow to learn and quick to forget species.

Recent Example: Bernanke just called for increased regulation to prevent a recurrence of the credit debacle.

Congress will grind away at the issue and do their best to look busy and competent.

All they really need to do is run the Congressional Record in reverse and replace what was learned in the 1930s and discarded in the 1980s through the end of the century.

But the way they will approach it is going to let them avoid confronting Social Security and Medicare, tax reform, energy independence, etc., just like they have done the past several decades.

kiron:

You ask

What does a just society look like?

Can there ever be a true definition to this? Since society represents the mean average of actions of all the people that comprise it!

This is the trap. To think that society trickles down to make better our lives.

It has to be reversed, we have to live to our kindness and actions in order to create a society that is defined to being just. Since Just is a human definition which changes to the needs of the people.

The bigger problem is one of extremes.

Not everyone is willingly to act to kindness, and 60-70% of people are content to "follow" which means instead of acting to what they would like, they instead follow "leaders" so as a result government becomes required to set a standard of behavior in order to help mediate that aspect of human behavior.

What this truly means... no single answer will work! Since it oscillates between the two extremes.. where government becomes a dictatorship to when it pisses people off enough that they break free and re-discover their own power to dictate back to government what it should be.

This is the cycle as old as culture... I don't expect our culture to break free of this pattern. So why not just skip around the question in order to find better answers.

This is why I get tired of endless debate over these questions on the best solution... since having a perfect static answer is a false vision.

As a Taoist, I teach the solution is personal action and kindness and that in turn creates a reflection for society to follow. I know Human nature places bounds on this practice since it only works if everyone truly acts to their nature.

But even with this limitation, at times this is very critical since it only takes one person to reflect and truly pass change back up: a Perfect example is Gandhi and India.

So in the end it just is.

It just up to each of us to do the best we can to our own heart... and let the larger mess sort itself out in the averaging process we call: society.

I suppose I could summarize

a Just society is one that "Just" lets people follow kindness as unhindered as possible.

pretty board definition since everyone has their own personal truth on what that means to them...

So instead we enjoy the roller coaster of society as it swings about to the whims... of us.

Imperial reasons to be in Iraq -

US had been kicked out of Saudi; needed a mid-east base; Iraq was expected potentially to have as much oil as Saudi; install a "friendly" gov't in Iraq, and US oil majors would be able to own big new reserves; US could have influence over an iraqi gov't with growing power in OPEC.

Sadly, it hasn't worked out quite as Cheney hoped.

NYUgrad said:

"IF he wins what he would focus on,
1. financial crisis "Plumbing" (tax cuts for 95% of working Americans and 2nd stimulus package)
2. energy independence (5M potential American jobs) Solar, wind, bio, nat gas
3. education
etc.
I will be thinking of ways to profit short term from this."

I'm in agreement with 2nd-ave's comment above re business opportunity. How about a service or product that teaches about alternative energies and how to invest and create jobs in them. That pretty well covers NYUgrad's observations but it is a long term opportunity which is preferable, IMO.

Palin Prank Call: Masked Avengers, Canadian Comedy Duo, Convince Palin She's Talking To French President Sarkozy (AUDIO)

http://tinyurl.com/69lhog

President Bush took office and 9/11 happen
Thing change
While war in Iraq was going on He was elected second time and that is the fact
If majority of people was against the war he would have lost election.

McCain was known as an independent and moderate leader as senator. He gave in to conservative and selected palin that did him in.
I voted for Mr. Bush twice. I do not like republican social policy
All branch of government in hand of democrat will make them intoxicated?

Bill said in early AM: "America needs to spend all its available resources to re-building America for the benefit of its own people, which includes their most basic needs of food, shelter and safety."

Amen. The only part I question is about putting all the DOD savings from base closures right back into the pot for more weapons. If you seek civilian applications from R&D its more cost effective to go after them directly.

Big Aerospace would still get many contracts. For example, recently a wind turbine here in the cornfields of central Illinois threw a blade after a structural failure at the blade root. Thats a rotor blade fatigue failure. The manufacturer, an Indian company, says it knows about the problem and is replacing all blades. That would never have happened if the blades were from Sikorsky or Boeing or Bell Helicopter units. I believe that because for many years I was an engineer in just that field as a US Army employee. There was an old saying that you could down trees with a Bell blade.

Obama is quoted in an interview here about rebuilding our infrastructure, http://thewashingtonnote.com . He emphasizes the power grid.

The Greatest Generation

My take on this generation is that it is the group of people that were old enough to have served in WW2 which for many of our parents was 1939-45. Prior to 1941 there were many Canadians and a far lesser number of American volunteers who fought the Nazi's alongside the Brits and the commonwealth.

This generation was typically born after the return of their fathers from WW1 and grew up in a rapidly changing society, many of the changes brought about by the effects of the first WW. This magnificent generation had to live through an economic depression the like of which has never been experienced since. Then they went to war for 6 years! Since Vietnam we typically get posted to a war zone for a year at a time, so just imagine 6 straight tours of duty. My late father used to tell me about the chronic despair during the depression and his campaigns through Africa, Italy, France and finally Germany. My parents had an absolute hatred of debt and I'm sure for most of you whose parents were born around the same time your parents felt the same. Many baby boomers would have inherited a distrust of debt from their parents but over the years learnt to use it in balance, ie at an appropriately low gearing rate.

I cannot adequately describe in words how much this world owes to the greatest generation. Many of us would not be alive today if it were not for their commitment to their values. These are the values our children may need to become better acquainted with given what the current generations (boomers and x) will leave them.

Now I thought the article by James Quinn was informative and thought provoking. For those of you who haven't read it I commend it to you, not because it is either right or wrong but simply because it raises points to contemplate.

Kaimu has raised a point above as follows "Had the Greatest Generation not have fallen prey to the JP Morgan led banking cartel in 1913 we would not have a fiat monetary system from which HUGE amounts of credit has been created out of thin air." I do not dispute the veracity and accuracy of his comment I just disagree with his interpretation of the Greatest Generation. In 1913 my understanding of the Greatest Generation was not yet born.

Now in terms of Kaimu's comments on big government I concur. The question is how do you reduce the 'need' for big government? What would the catalyst be? How do you get the greater population to change their values because that is what is required IMO?

We must remember how long it took for the Fall of the Roman Empire, are we looking at the early stages of our own Fall?

"You are what you think" Buddha c. 500BC

[Bill Cara note:

Thank you seadog for a thoughtful addition to the Discourse. It made me think that in all my years I never once heard my parents talk about debts, They were salt of the earth people. My Dad was an electrician after being an Army Sergeant in WWII (five years) and my Mom worked at home except for the times they felt they needed a second income, which thankfully wasn't often. Without debt, my parents provided 100% what they believed was needed for three boys. We all graduated from fine universities, without much debt I believe, and moved on with our lives. Our parents did well. In all my years, I never once heard a conversation at home about society's failure or the End of the Empire or how family debts could not be paid. Salt of the earth my parents were. It was, as you say, the Greatest Generation.]

My grandmother immigrated to America in 1931. She worked as a seamstress, became a supervisor, raised three sons, (all of which eventually served on active duty in America's armed forces). She bought her own home, a 6-unit apartment building in Brooklyn, NY, in 1950. She never left that house until she died in June 2000. The neighborhood disintegrated around her, the apartments she rented were rent-controlled by the city (her taxes were not similarly controlled), the parochial school, and the parks in the neighborhood became the dominion of crack dealers.

In response to this situation, most other residents were either "looking the other way" towards crime and planning on getting their own families out; property owners sold at bargains, or abandoned the buildings altogether. I suppose more than a few had some convenient fires set in order to collect the insurance. Businesses closed and re-located, jobs disappeared. It was a working-class neighborhood that degenerated into a welfare hovel; regardless, for that area, an entire way-of-life disappeared.

Scarcely what I would describe as "the American dream".

I see a similar situation all over the USA now.

And I don't know about the aberration of 1930s Nazism, but I've lived//worked in Germany the past 4 1/2 years and I see nothing wrong here.

I can take my family on public transportation even late at night and not worry that someone is going to poke a handgun in my ribs or otherwise threaten us. Germany is clean, efficient, reliable. People respect each other. The schools are functional. Its safe here. There's a price to pay, namely in the form of a 19% national sales tax, and I understand that personal, property, and corporate taxes are similarly high, but at least they know what they want.

When you make EVERYONE pay (no "free-riders") - you create a sense of ownership and people will generally take care of what society provides (be it parking, highways, schools, parks et al).

Is this socialism? I don't really know. But I do know that I'd much rather stay here than trade it for what I know my life, and my family's quality of life, would be like back in the states.

I'm new to the site and saw many complex tech charts here. But you know what I found the more complex the chart is the less helpful. I think the old type of EMA or SMA charts good enough.

http://tinyurl.com/6la987

Sunday Morning Coffee fare

CP,

Glad you defined Stag-deflation. My first impression was this is how the field dressed moose would feel if he didn't get some of Sarah's new wardrobe..

I have one big, rather basic problem — using the government's numbers to define anything. GDP,CPI, etc. are so skewed I pay no attention to any of the reports and comparisons. I have been a long time skeotic, but now have NO trust in any of them. What are not poorly tallied are just flat out lies.

I am not sure I should, but I tend to believe the 1930s data were less so. I truly believe more people were honorable and felt personal shame when irresponsible. In some ways a negative which brought some to suicide,

Instead of going whole hog Keynesian or supply-side, we need people who will use common sense applications of whatever fits.

The wide open Free Markets approach under Bush (fits his all or nothing personality, religious, economic, political or whatever) cost a lot of good jobs, allowed tainted food and drugs to enter. We are now in danger of closing off imports with tariffs, tough talk over reactions, at a time when we are more dependent than ever on imports.

I heard talk of closing banks or markets temporarily, but feel like I'd like to stop almost everything and straighten out our priorities and values. The 24/7 overload and media bias along with the distrust of same is boggling.

Having just read Terkel's "Hard Times," it is interesting how much was tried and failed before things began to have beneficial effects. Emergency measures are no doubt need once more, but they met with resistance then and will now.

To paraphrase that great philosopher Yogi Berra, This won't be over, till it's over! (That won't stop the day-to-day, "Are we there yet?")

2nd_ave,

I am in complete agreement with your 10:30 post as the best medicine for our present situation. Also agree on Greenspan as a major contributor with plenty of others to boot.

This is NOT a generational problem, but long time coming need to assume responsibility, from the individual to the top levels of government.

We must begin to demand government to take action on a whole host of problems. As one who worked alone it is easy to see talk is no substitute for action, Meetings (while necessary) are not the same as production. Ideas are good only when implemented. TV time and hearings is no substitute for effective legislation.

AAA rated crap still stinks!

Craig,

Actually we had been cutting the military since the fall of the Soviet Union. The military was NOT in favor of the invasion of Iraq. CENTCOM had spent ten years studying the situation and developed three levels of involvement there should it be needed. 1. Bombing only 2. Bombing and Special Ops to organize and support internal revolutionaries 3. Full invasion requiring 500,000 troops and massive post war involvement

Bush gave Cheney/Rumsfeld a free hand. They methodically by-passed those military and State Dept. leaders who opposed invasion on the cheap. They installed people with no experience or background in the Middle East.

In general military personnel with combat experience avoid initiating the use of force. Many were forced to choose between executing the plan or retirement — many retired.

McCain was against the of only 1/4 the troops called for from the beginning. It is people like Cheney, W, Rumsfeld — all CEOs with strokeable egos, who have a tendency to be "brave" in situations like this.

Paulson and Bernanke or Cheney and Bush — totally willing to send other people's money or lives to suit their own ends.

Good Morning Everyone, I hope you enjoyed your extra hour of sleep. Hard to do when your internal clock gets you up for premkt trading PDT/PST.

I'm concerned reading Goldbug58's post. I know some here will have another view, but I experience the same even driving north across the border at Blaine or Sumas. I get on Canada 1 and it is clean and feels like the U.S. did in the 60's. This is the observation of an american in Canada, I'm sure Canadians have their issues.

Grym my man, you and I agree on so much and I think we nit pick on each other too much. If you were my neighbor I would be a happy camper. You have common sense and concern for others, what more can a person ask? The last part of this last post was/is my concern. I have a BIG problem with those who are in the position to speak truth to power that instead turn tail and retire on the dole of those they just abandoned.

Those that stayed and did the bidding of politicians over what they knew was wrong were BREAKING THEIR SWORN OATH to defend the Constitution and they should be viewed in a darker light than those that "retired".

I know there are those who say they have to follow the orders of the Commander in Chief, but that isn't true. If the orders are illegal (torture) or they will lead to defeat or serious threats to the nation (like bankrupting it and tying up our strategic resources) then the orders need to be publically challenged. If this isn't currently possible then we need to change the system to allow them to serve and fulfill their oath without politicians or foreign/domestic enemies threating them or their retirement by speaking up for the country.

I think our military leadership should have the same ability to speak with impunity that our Supreme Court speaks w/o political threats.

Then, even if they are crazy or traitorous, they can be removed and choose to defend their views or not, but right or wrong politicians won't be able to blackmail them.

What a crazy country.

Boeing machinists return to work tonight:

http://tinyurl.com/5k88os

FYI: A good example of the above was General Douglas MacArthur.
He spoke truth to Truman and was removed as a result but his retirement or his legal rights were not threatened.

Sadly we didn't have any Generals with MacArthur's huevos or intelligence when we needed it. We got Tommy Franks.

BA: Contract passed by 74%.

Rupert Murdoch contributes to sentiment change, and i agree with all of his quoted comments:

http://tinyurl.com/6ju7n8

"In the first of a series of speeches in his birth country of Australia, Murdoch spoke Sunday of "the great transformation we've seen in the past few decades, the unleashing of human talent and ability across our world, and the golden age for humankind that I see just around the corner."

He said China and India are great countries whose people are only recently emerging from long histories of being "incarcerated by communism or caste." The rise of their economies is creating a new middle class that would be three billion strong within 30 years and that is setting a new benchmark for global competitiveness.

"The world has never seen this kind of advance before," Murdoch said. "These are people who have known deprivation. These are people who are intent on developing their skills, improving their lives and showing the world what they can do."

Colin Twiggs provides support for the 10000 'magnet' scenario"

http://tinyurl.com/54qccl

"The Dow respected support at 8000 and is rallying to confirm resistance at 10000. Twiggs Money Flow (21-Day) reveals short-term buying pressure, but remains below zero, signaling longer term weakness."

As if the election process hasn't been long enough, add another hour...

Time to shop for ultras in another 500-700 points....

Sentiment Overview - This blog note looks at some of the same Sentiment charts that I do, but its verbal commentary is sooo much better than mine. It has both positive and negative commentary, but I really like this one liner: "The market continues to make people stare at their screen like goldfish, widemouthed and blinking in amazement. ..."

Worth a read.
http://tinyurl.com/5c5cah

Paulson's swindle exposed...

The swindle of American taxpayers is proceeding more or less in broad daylight, as the unwitting voters are preoccupied with the national election. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson agreed to invest $125 billion in the nine largest banks, including $10 billion for Goldman Sachs, his old firm. But, if you look more closely at Paulson's transaction, the taxpayers were taken for a ride--a very expensive ride. They paid $125 billion for bank stock that a private investor could purchase for $62.5 billion. That means half of the public's money was a straight-out gift to Wall Street, for which taxpayers got nothing in return.

Leo W. Gerard, president of the United Steelworkers, raised these explosive questions in a stinging letter sent to Paulson this week. The union did what any private investor would do. Its finance experts vetted the terms of the bailout investment and calculated the real value of what Treasury bought with the public's money. In the case of Goldman Sachs, the analysis could conveniently rely on a comparable sale twenty days earlier. Billionaire Warren Buffett invested $5 billion in Goldman Sachs and bought the same types of securities--preferred stock and warrants to purchase common stock in the future. Only Buffett's preferred shares pay a 10 percent dividend, while the public gets only 5 percent. Dollar for dollar, Buffett "received at least seven and perhaps up to 14 times more warrants than Treasury did and his warrants have more favorable terms," Gerard pointed out.

http://tinyurl.com/5hw6bm

CP: The way to beat it is to sleep or do anything that allows you quality time away from communications from 'outside'. Don't forget the phone, they'll be imposing on your home with phone bots spewing nonsense and poison all weekend. You might even...gasp....have to turn off the computer. Nah.....

My wife and I turned off the TV last night, cranked up the tunes, and baked a cake.

ALOHA !!

So many in AMERICA have turned to the wrong direction many, many years ago buying into the con job that the stock market will guarantee your retirement and so huge funds were thrown into 401ks and IRAs and the likes. While many were doing that I completely stopped my contributions and instead threw everything I had into paying off DEBT and buying gold and silver. Now as the smoke clears we surely see the folly of holding long term DEBT into retirement. The AMERICAN DREAM was essentially built on the concept of DEBT and more DEBT! So, I go back to my same old long time thesis that paying off DEBT is a much better "investment" than most any other retirement fund! It is now in the American consciousness to LEVERAGE our way out of any economic and financial turmoil. The Keynesian concept of spending oneself into prosperity has served those at the US FED and the US Banks very well since 1913, but it has wreaked havoc on AMERICA'S SPIRIT ... This was and is PLANNED CHAOS, as Ludwig Von Mises in 1947 put so well.

I am no GERMAN economist but my guess is that the average German has little DEBT compared to the average American. Perhaps what is driving respect in GERMANY is the repudiation of DEBT, while in America levels of DEBT have done nothing but escalate for decades now. In stead of "prospering together" I submit the German's have much more respect from the fact that they have "suffered together". Americans of this era have yet to "suffer" and this is because of our monetary Reserve Currency status that we have so foolishly abused. Being the World's Reserve Currency is a status of privilege and requires a very deep fiscal responsibility and a discipline of austerity, but what America has done is the opposite. We have leveraged it to our advantage and essentially told the rest of the World ... "its our money but its your problem"! Now that statement did not come out of the mouth of some baby-boomer it came out of the mouth of the former 1970 Tres Sec, John Connolly, from the Greatest Generation. That statement was said right after Nixon took us off the gold standard as the Europeans wanted to exchange their US Dollars for gold. That statement has set the tone for the American attitude for decades to come as we have squandered our fiscal responsibilities to the World Reserve Currency. It is essentially still the attitude of the current US Tres Sec. This is why we have had the US military on World patrol ever since. This core monetary policy has been the hallmark of every administration since, both Dem and Rep.

Once again I point out that the only way DEBT levels like these can get so HUGE is because of our fiat monetary system and those who control our money ... the US FED. So long as our money has no store of long term value we have no hope of ever respecting each other or our government.

Now as proof of concept that DEBT is in control and there is now a long road of DEBT ATTRITION ahead I offer this survey of retirement funds. I find it hard to believe that this survey never even really explored DEBT ATTRITION. What is "tightening ones belt"? Then even if they connected the dots on DEBT they almost assuredly would not trace that issue back to the US FED and the corrupt monetary system we now still hold onto in a most desperate manner. Its as if the TITANIC's lifeboat are full of holes and nobody even notices as they are piling into those boats(US Peso/Treasuries)and lowering themselves over the side!

Add to the fire that neither Presidential Candidate even mentions any of this ...

ITS THE MONEY STUPID!!!

I will write in RON PAUL ...

READ ON:
Economic Downturn Puts Strain on Already Insufficient Retirement Savings

63 percent of Americans completely stopped contributing to their retirement plan

OMAHA, Neb., Oct 28, 2008 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- A new survey conducted by Opinion Research Corporation on behalf of TD AMERITRADE Holding Corporation (NASDAQ: AMTD) has found that only about half (54 percent) of Americans polled say they are currently investing in a retirement plan.

Of those polled, 1 in 3 (34 percent) people say they currently have less than $50,000 in investable assets -- this includes senior citizens. Only 21 percent of those polled indicated they have $50,000 or more in investable assets. Yet, when asked if they plan to personally contribute more to their future retirement given the potential changes in Social Security nearly half (43 percent) answered yes.

Financial strain due to the economic downturn was cited by half (50 percent) of those who say they have reduced or stopped contributing to their retirement plan. Unemployment (32 percent) and healthcare costs (25 percent) were also key factors cited as affecting their ability to contribute to their retirement plan.

"While most Americans are tightening their belts by cutting back on spending," said Diane Young, TD AMERITRADE's Director of Retirement and Goal Planning, "reducing retirement plan contributions should always be the last resort as the power of compounding quickly fades away as time passes."

When asked by what percentage they have reduced the amount they contribute to their retirement plan, or have they stopped contributing completely, 35 percent say they have reduced their retirement plan contributions; 14 percent claim have cut their contributions back by 5 percent to 20 percent and as many as 6 percent have reduced their contributions by 21 percent or more. Sixty-three percent indicated they have stopped contributing completely.

Interesting, nearly 1 in 4 (22 percent) respondents ages 35 to 44 years indicated that they have stopped or reduced their retirement plan contributions, more than any other age group. END

seadog asked: "how do you reduce the 'need' for big government? What would the catalyst be?"

I don't recall having witnessed government contraction in my lifetime, nor do I recall restraint on spending. Spending restraint should be the catalyst, although I don't believe it will be voluntary. There will be an event (like an avalanche), that will be the catalyst. I'm not betting on it any time soon... because it is contrary to the self-interest of government and special-interest groups.

kaimu said: "You make the GANG OF 545 live on less!" Good point! I'm pretty sure the GANG of 545 don't live on their government salaries alone, perhaps that's where we should concentrate. A nice scarlet letter for those living above their means (close consideration of buried contributions from special interests groups through intensive research) would go a long way towards forcing honesty in government. It'll take a lot of digging, and I'm not expecting special interest groups (inclusive of media) to conduct the excavations or lead meaningful parades.

For more information, you might tune to this channel:

http://www.cagw.org/site/PageServer

Chickenpookie,

Took a look at DXO, SSO and QLD.

SSO and QLD both look similar, and both look promising long from here.

DXO also looks as though a powerful trend change may be upon it, but in this case the drop has been so severe and the security seems so new that maybe value isn't determined yet, right, so ya gotta be careful.

Record setting national debt...

It’s the surge you won’t hear anyone boast about.

Never before in U.S. history has the national debt increased as much and as rapidly as it has over the past month.

Since September 30, the day the national debt hit the $10-trillion mark for the first time, the government has run up over $500 billion in new debt.

That’s more than the federal deficit for the entire 2008 fiscal year, which ended September 30. And it’s the most rapid increase in the national debt ever: over half a trillion dollars in less than a month - 23 days to be exact.

http://tinyurl.com/58yo6h

October Porker of the Month, Federal Communications Commission Chairman Kevin Martin, squandered $355,000 of the taxpayers’ money to sponsor a NASCAR driver from his home state of North Carolina. This may be part of a diabolical plot to run for Senate or governor after the next president pulls the plug on his tenure. The ill-fated car, which crashed in its first race, was supposed to draw attention to the switch to digital television in February, 2009.

The pork Tsunami just keeps on coming! Balanced budget? We don't need no stinkin' balanced budget!!!

political endorsement:

In Rabbit Hash, KY they are runnign 9 dogs, a cat and a jackass for mayor. While I'm attracted to the jackass because we are likely to get one anyway, I'm endorsing the bitch Border Collie. It's a first to elect a female mayor in Rabbit Hash, and being a Border Collie she will be a uniter, not a divider. They have recently released some dirty photos of her after rolling in the mud down by the river, but that's just more of the dirty politics we suffer through these days.

Since anyone can vote and votes cost a buck, the old saying; "Vote early and vote often" fully applies.

sharkie - Yea, I'm already in SSO and QLD, since about DOW 10.8k (yea, still riding a bag, but up, now).

Thinking of switching some of that over to DXO cause I'm thinking a huge breakout is imminent. I'm thinking $80 oil, but having trouble getting my arms around a comprehensive SSO/QLD comparison (which one(s) break out first). Stability - I'm pretty sure there won't be any problems with the security itself.

Fireworks,

Good comments, particularly about Paulson--you let the facts speak for themselves, without fulminating. I wish more people would look at the Paulson issue before this election, but it seems to be under the radar. I hope that he will not be the Treasury Secretary under the next president. This has really turned me off Obama, though I think McCain is worse in other respects.

Since I've sold most of my stocks and decided to go with the 20-50 da/wk moving averages as explained by Maromatics a while back, I am much more relaxed. Even if I don't get in at the bottom, and even if I do get whip-lashed on occasion, I feel this approach will be a lot less stressful to follow for an intermediate term trader such as me. Of course I will force myself to follow bsi25's advice on position sizing as well. I've come to the conclusion that in order to trade, you have to be *extremely tough-minded*, like our host. You cannot marry stocks and you cannot swim with gold bricks in your hands. I really need to take a hard look at my own psychology in order to become tough-minded, at least in trading, if not in life. Very hard to do and to learn.

vinod,

I live in Illinois in a city which was heavily into manufacturing. All of my customers were manufacturers. My father and my wife's father as well as most of their generation worked at their jogs for decades earning a good living and retired with pensions and full medical care for life. They are gone now and so are both companies they worked for.

That all disappeared within the last 15 to 20 years. My business went before I was old enough to get Social Security, my health insurance costs went up over 500% in less than three years after my one and only claim. (I had a high deductible and paid $12,200 of a $14,000 bill.) I had to start using my savings the last three years in business.

Our city is now at an admitted 10.5% unemployment. The quality of jobs people now have is down as well. Few or no benefits, many working part time. My son is now working earning less than half what he earned in 1990. People cannot sell their houses and so cannot go to another city if there is work there.

Relatives in several other states have had similar experiences. It is true not just in manufacturing, but two architects, several in sales, banking, TV production and others. I have a list of 59 individuals I know who have lost their jobs — all are now working for less, some at two or more part time jobs.

What is different recently is that it can no longer be ignored. You can only hide so much under a rug.

I'm not sure if we are heading into a depression, but I do know it is a very depressing time here.

With the Europeons expected to cut rates I would expect the us dollar to rise and gold to fall. Do others see it this way also? So I would expect next week to be not a good time to hold but maybe to buy.

[Bill Cara note:

That is the position I took in the WIR this morning.]

I'd vote for the jackass, I wish all politicians had 63 chromosomes.

Everything runs in cycles Grym - the 73-74 recession was a bad one, so was 81-82. There has not been a major slowdown in over 25 years, so I think people got too used to the good times (yeah there was a "recession in 91, but more or less this was just a speedbump). So things may get tough and then get better again, i.e. its probably not the end of the world, albeit depressing as it may sound.

I'm more concerned about the way I see our country throw money around in other places and leave nothing to invest in itself.

Personally - I have no debt. I don't own a home with a sinking market value. I have 40% to put as a down payment for a $300K home (if I wanted it) in cash. I have other investments. In short - I do the right thing (financially speaking, at least).

My folks always ask me "why don't you come back then?"

Well - I don't want to go back. I served the US for 20 years and they tell you how much they appreciate it, but I don't think they really do. I have a pension from them for about $1550 a month and its surely not enough to live on for myself, much less support a family with. I see these young troops today with their dozen or so credit cards and debit cards, payday loans, et al. I see how the "system" makes people dependent. Yeah I can afford a house, but who wants a house on a block where 1 out of 4 neighbors is in default or insolvent?

Yes - somebody please fix America - its F-d up.

"I really need to take a hard look at my own psychology in order to become tough-minded, at least in trading, if not in life."

You hit it on the head. Our trading is reflection of our pesonality. This connection is too often ignored by traders who think the Holy Grail of success in trading is in finding that right combination of indicators, only to discover that their own action undermines whatever their system tells them to do.

How often do we see a trader deviating from his own system because he thought this particular company/stock was worth breaking the rules for; not having any system whatsoever because his erratic personality insisted on shooting darts; allowing his ego to intervene in decision-making process; abandoning discipline and self-control in order not to take any loss however small it was only to turn it into big one.

Just like our personality defines our actions in life in general, it defines our actions in trading, directly influencing the results. Want to change your trading perormance - start with changing yourself.

Thanks, Vad. My losses have forced me to this point and I hope to profit from acquiring a little self-knowledge. One start will be to get your book!

aucourant,

let me offer you something to start with for the best price on Earth - free. 5 articles on this aspect of trading, starting with http://www.realitytrader.com/blog/2008/02/psychology-101.html, then 4 more touching on subsequent stages of trader's development.

Also, when the fisrt "gateway" course is rolled out on a new Trader Wizard site (ETA is Dec 1), we are [lanning a series of the courses going deeper into different aspects of trading. I envision of of them to be devoted stroctly to psychology of trading - no psychodrivel, very practical, very solution-oriented, from the point of view of trader rather than an academic, describing the typical problems and suggesting the solutions. Thing that will invoke in a reader feeling of "Have you guys looked over my shoulder?"

ALOHA !!

There is a line in the movie ALMOST FAMOUS, where the Mother is dropping him(lead actor)off at a Deep Purple concert at the Sports Arena in San Diego, circa 1970s. They are driving past a long line of kids waiting to get in and she says as she gazes at them, "Look at this ... an entire generation of Cinderellas and there's no slipper coming!" What a great baby-boomer epitaph!

Couldn't that be said about those expecting the "slipper" from their 401ks?

WELCOME TO WALMART ... I LOVE YOU!!

Let me just say that there will be long lines at the local bank tomorrow(Bank Of Hawaii)and the next day in Pahoa, HI. Why? Because everyone is trying to cash their social security and welfare checks! Don't forget the EBT cards(food stamps)at the grocery stores!

Back in the 1970s and early 1980s this area, the Puna district, was still viable economically due to sugar and marijuana. The police started to crack down on pot growers who then moved their larger operations to Oregon, but during those times many people walked around here with big wads of cash in their pockets. Now they walk around here broke and if they want a job or a career then they go to Hilo, Honolulu or Las Vegas. The point is there is no work here but there is a great opportunity for agriculture. If pot is illegal then so should alcohol be since more Americans die from alcohol abuse than from pot. Then there is the hemp factor, which is very much an economically viable industry. In fact the first diesel motors were run on hemp seed oil.

Aren't we past this whole irrational fear of pot? Now the kids are high on ICE ... The gateway drug is alcohol not pot. Just remember back when you were a teenager did you start with pot or booze? I started with booze and so did everyone else I knew then.

Once again the US government has declared marijuana illegal and has made the World worse off for it. Which lobby twisted their arms on that one? I can think of two ... the booze and drug lobbies! Perhaps when tax revenues become scarce the government will look at legalizing marijuana from a tax revenue aspect! I am sure a "legalize marijuana" bill would pass easily if there were enough pork on it!

I do not use drugs so I do not advocate marijuana or alcohol use, but I do advocate hemp and the other benefits derived from commercial farming of marijuana. What is there to lose? Probably 99% of those who want pot already have it and the laws against possession are misdemeanors, like a parking ticket! I see people here in Hawaii smoking pot right in public ... The downside to legalizing it is so minimal its hardly even perceptible without a microscope! The UPSIDE though, is vast!

I'm on Bob Marley's side ... LEGALIZE IT! Make pot legal and insolvent bailout bank exec bonuses illegal!

"I nevision ONE of them"...

Jock,

Agreed, oil is the primary reason we are in Iraq. Our need for oil is critical, the shame of it is we've had 30 years to change that. I voted for John B. Anderson in 1980 thinking his $0.50 per gallon tax dedicated to alternatives was a good idea.

We could have developed more fuel efficient transportation — a national passenger rail like Europe, more efficient autos and trucks, energy saving houses, a long list. Instead we did just the opposite. Cars and house are bigger, greater energy users. We not only have no good mass transport, our highways and total infrastructure is collapsing.

Sadly, we must still have oil. More oil!

We haven't heard much about it lately, but our new "embassy" in Iraq is a self-sustaining fortress. The sort of outpost from the old west days. I expect the back-up plan is to hold it regardless of the Iraq War outcome.

Thsi week I heard a large ethanol producer is going kaput. Just as in the 1970s people who threaten the oil producers will be squeezed (oil price cuts) and king petrol will still dominate.

Don't bet the farm on alternate efforts.

Kaimu,

To support widespread use of mariujana is radical. If everyone sleepwalking though their lives were forced to confront themselves, their lives, and their futures WITH use of marijuana, people would seize control of their destinies.

The bullshit corporate politics would begin to recede and the people would take back Washington AND Main Street.

(By the way I saw you in a dream at the Cara Convention, You were sitting on a couch with your wife in Bill's living room sipping some nice Barolo).

BTW:

Anyone interested revealing who you're voting for, kind of an informal poll?

In my case, Obama.

shark,

pot is practically legal in canada when it comes to personal possession.

people smoking it in the streets, outside bars and at parties from teens to grown adults is pretty common, especially in BC.

neither the horror stories or the utopia stories have come true with essentially decriminalizing pot in canada, its just sort of woven into the society at this point and its not a big deal.

goldbug58:

Yes - somebody please fix America - its F-d up.

Well that is us. I won't run away, I help people on the street, Turned my home into a temple to help people reconnect to their heart. Have helped people turn around in the worse of times...

We can make a difference I know this since I do it every day.

No difference will happen if you wait for someone else.. since someone "else" are the current jokers in power.

If you or anyone "wants" the world to be better then don't envision the problems.. which too many people do since it is easy...

Just act to your heart and help those near you.

Do that, and you start fixing the system

Saying speaking up etc... while nice... doesn't mean anything unless you follow it up backed by your heart and following feet and hands to reach out and lift up, to make something real.
It is that simple, but only if people act.

otherwise just watching, means just watching it televised as "unreal" ...

The trouble is ... even with it being as bad as it is.. People are too comfortable and fear losing what they have more than making a difference.... The only problem is "what you have" is in process of being sold off...

So it goes.

The price of living in a flock...

The flock gets fleeced every time. The system is rigged against the flock.

Its a personal choice. No action places you squarely in the flock.

Casey,
Brings to mind the old concept of categorising people as: the watchers (who watch for what they do not know, as life slips them by), the waiters (who wait for everyone else to make things happen)and the do'ers (sadly a minority in all walks of life).

The do'ers will always see and take an opportunity (trend formation, breakout) while the waiters wait for it to be proven beyond all doubt (multi-confirmations)while the watchers didn't see it happen (where did I put that trigger?).

From Barron
Steve Leuthold

Does this particular downturn remind you of any other economic slumps in particular?

This recession is probably similar to the one that occurred around 1981. The average recession since World War II has been about 11 months. The longest was 16 months, and we've had two of those. And I think this one is going to last at least 16 months and probably longer than that, maybe 20 months.

This recession started in the fourth quarter of last year, so you are looking at a recession through the fourth quarter of 2009. But you have got to remember that the stock market is a lead economic indicator, and historically it has turned up about 60% of the way through a recession. Applying that timetable suggests that this market should be bottoming sometime this month, and that is very, very possible.

In voting my conscience, I will be writing in Ron Paul. IMO the Republican and Democratic argument didn't convey any real feeling of reform. I'm tired of the BS we're constantly fed, and Ron Paul's the only one who has laid out a comprehensive plan for the future of the country.

Headline on wednesday will be
the economy stole the election?

The Changeling-

what a shock it was learn that "Wineville" is now known as Mira Loma, quite close to my early hitching routes in the San Bernardino/Crestline/West Covina area...

for some reason, stories about predators going after kids (Sleepers, Mystic River, and now The Changeling) always draw me in...in any case, another nicely directed film by Clint Eastwood...

I will be voting my conscience as well on Tuesday for Ron Paul.

He is the only politician who has actually said what I have believed for a long time.

My vote will only be wasted if I compromise my principles and vote for one of the government/wall street chosen candidates.

And wouldn't it be a shock to the media, wall street, and the government if tons of people write him in?

Rob.

I mailed in my ballot for Obama/Biden...

i should correct the title of the movie from 'The Changeling' to 'Changeling'...

I cannot vote for McCain even though I think Obama and a democratic majority will be worse-I will vote for probably the only honest person in the race, Ralph Nader. He may be a little kooky but I know he's not on the lobbyist payroll.

First time since becoming US citizen (1980) not voting.
Do not like the choice given to me to vote

I'm from Mass. Doesn't matter if I vote. Mass always votes Democrat, so I don't have to vote if I want the democrat, or the republican. However, definitely voting to end the income tax in Mass. Gotta' take the money away from the a$$holes.

Shark,

I sent my absentee in a week ago. Ron Paul for President.

Wouldn't it be poetic justice that if Obama should win the election and then Ron Paul captures twice enough write in votes to have put McCain in the winning spot? That might get someones attention.

An interesting observation from a retired investment professional now living in Thailand.

"In a few days’ time Americans will choose a Leftist as their next president and strengthen the Democrats, now dominated by its Left, in their hold on the Congress. Thanks to catastrophic failure by the Republican administration, the US is about to make a major shift towards becoming a welfare state like those of poorly-performing Europe, just when its economy is least able to afford such generosity.

Having already committed the federal state to overspending half-a-trillion dollars a year, the political classes are about to add large amounts more for additional welfare benefits, at a time when the enormous but essentially unquantifiable additional costs of assistance to the financial system are going to have to be met.

Welcome to the new world of resurgent socialism, with capitalism discredited, ordinary folk and small businesses paying a terrible price for economic crisis, and bureaucrat-managed central planning back in favour.

Or will it be national socialism? Has Austria, the birthplace of Adolf Hitler, once again given us a foretaste of the political future with a near-one-third vote for far-Right parties in its latest elections?

There is certainly a significant risk of rising protectionism and other forms of economic nationalism in many countries as the political classes are forced to react to a rising tide of voter hostility to globalization and relatively easy migration, which are being blamed for loss of livelihoods.

A columnist in the Sydney Morning Herald, Waleed Aly, put the danger well: “In times of great insecurity, we look for certainties: nation, culture, religion, race – we crave strong authority figures and fabricate scapegoats on whom to blame our woes.”"

The author, Martin Spring puts out a free monthly newsletter which I always find in good humour and of interest and value. He can be contacted at afrodyn@afrodyn.plus.com if you want a copy (not a plug by the way). He does not sell anything!

http://tinyurl.com/3xr343

Asia is up.

I think I'm going to give up trading or investing (not doing well at either anymore) and try to get a job while there are still any to get.

Yes, Bill you were right last week. For how long I don't know, but right enough, at least short term.

thriftybob - We're going up from here, but might test the low again (I doubt it). I'm not selling here and walking away...

ALOHA !!

"then Ron Paul captures twice enough write in votes to have put McCain in the winning spot? That might get someones attention."

It wouldn't even come close to getting my attention but this would ... Imagine if the dolts who voted for McCain would vote for RON PAUL instead then we'd actually have a chance of saving America and putting WE THE PEOPLE first instead of last!

RON PAUL was the only Presidential candidate who had as part of his platform eliminating the US FEDERAL RESERVE. Imagine that ... honest money! He is the only one who grilled Greenspan for years on toxic derivative regulation. He was the only Mises educated candidate. The other two couldn't spell MISES if their life depended on it!

On Tuesday I will write in RON PAUL. The only honest money candidate!

Great discourse this wkd, just finished working thru it. If I was in the US I'd go with my heart and vote Obama, to make sure he gets a chance to give Americans a chance to turn their great country around. I will want Obama to put Ron Paul in his economic advisory cabinet. Is that possible?

I have had a small position of TBT in the portfolio and I notice it provides a simple thermometer reading on fear and risk aversion.

I'm concerned as a Canadian that we have a volatile currency which adds another vector to consider particularly when buying commodity stocks where the commodity is priced in USD.

I'm looking at Horizons Beta Pro for some broad sector expose. Currently holding HEU. I'll be watching the performance of HNU and others in the series.

Coxe says no sunspots, cold winter, lesser crop next year. He still likes the Ags above all, and for the first time since I have been listening, he says the financials will lead this mkt coming out of the recession.

Silver Wheaton

NR out with Q3 results. Conference call at 11 am today...

"In September, we raised in excess of C$120 million of cash from the early exercise of warrants which was applied against our debt facility. In a challenging economic environment, our balance sheet remains strong and debt repayment remains a priority," said Peter Barnes, President and Chief Executive Officer of Silver Wheaton. "Although operating results for the last several quarters have been disappointing, primarily as a result of weaker than expected silver deliveries from the San Dimas mine in Mexico, I am confident that the worst is now behind us. With production from Peñasquito now underway, we expect organic silver sales growth of approximately 40% over the next year, and approximately 150% by 2013. Despite these very challenging economic times, Silver Wheaton remains well positioned for the future."

seadog - Off hand, and just by reading the short quote that you posted, I would have to say that the writer is biased to the extreme. Any review of economic history shows that there is a constant adjustment between "guns or butter". With GWB, the US has moved to a far "guns" position extreme with little money being spent on the people, or infrastructure, or anything other than defense, oil for defense, and agression -- until the banks lined up at the trough here at the end of his term.

Perhaps, the future can bring about an adjustment away from that "guns" totality without bringing on the opposite extreme of total socialism. A nice moderation between the extremes is possible until it isn't. Perhaps, your quoted writer is unfamiliar with economic history?