Good morning.

There are NO Cara 100 Ratings Changes in play at this time.

----------------------------------------------------

Have a great day.

Sovereign wealth funds shunning U.S. assets...

However, foreign investment that has traditionally been earmarked for the United States is now pouring into developing markets with more growth potential.

Last month, the Financial Times reported that a large, unnamed Gulf fund had cut its dollar-denominated holdings from more than 80% a year ago to less than 60%.

Earlier this year, Qatar Investment Authority bought a 27% stake in Dragon Capital, a Vietnamese property fund. And in February, it bought a 15% stake in an Indian office development being built at the Bandra Kurla complex in Mumbai.

We are focusing on prime cities in India, China, Singapore, Korea, Vietnam and Malaysia, cities around the world where there is strong [gross domestic product] growth and fundamental unmet demand for high quality real estate," Navid Chamdia, head of real estate at Qatar Investment, told Bloomberg at a sovereign-wealth funds conference in Abu Dhabi. "About 40% of our real-estate investments will be in Asia."

Even China - which has strong investment ties with the United States - is diversifying away from the U.S. market.

http://tinyurl.com/55w5bc

SKF is down almost 100 points off the intraday high of 211.75 on July 15th.

“ ... China's Biggest Lender To Open Branch In N.Y.
Morning Edition [NPR], August 6, 2008  The Federal Reserve on Tuesday said it is allowing China's biggest lender to open up shop in the U.S. — yet another sign of the intertwining of the two nation's economies. The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, or ICBC, will open its first branch in New York. China's government owns 75 percent of the bank. U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs owns a small stake....”
http://tinyurl.com/5pewqx

Funny how Goldman Suchs is such a good business partner to have if one wants to get things done. One might think that GS has connections, eh? Or, was this new banking privilege just a quid pro quo enticement for buying more low paying Bonds?

I can see how advantageous/ironic it would be for China to be able to return some of its questionable value $US back to the US in return for higher interest loans plus a possible future claim on US properties.

Hmm, fail to pay back your loan and you disappear into a Chinese work camp, maybe. If that were possibly true, I can think of some Congresspersons and Senators who should get some “special” loans with just such a “failure to pay” clause tucked into the fine print from the new bank - might make it worthwhile, bjmho.

vinod- looks like you get a nice shot at exiting your remaining OEX puts today...

2nd
yes, also thanks for your yesterday's comments

QT
I show your yesterday's advise
will be looking forward to load up those stock
let me know when is the right time

I'd assumed the big drop in SLW earlier in the week was just a generalized pullback in PMs. I bought in quite heavily when SLW bounced off long-term support at $Cdn $10.5 and am enjoying a sizeable paper profit, with intentions to hold at least to $13, which is where previous support may turn into resistance.

However, Bill wrote in today's market re-cap ...

"Silver Wheaton (SLW) had dropped -11.3% the previous day, so despite no real change in the silver price on the day, traders decided the value is there in the leveraged equity, which may be a mistake."

Can anyone comment on the health of SLW ?

Vinod - too bad you didn't wait just one more day on the OEX puts. I was thinking about buying some when Dow hit 11,700 or so, but looks like I missed the boat.

Looks like my SKF($112) & SRS($87) are going to take off today.

2n
Trader here told me that last couple of days HB&B were moving money from commodity and energy to financial/healthcare and retail
They just want to confuse people. Financial and retail stock are cooked
And in slow economy all sector goes down
They said be careful

Western Goldfields Inc. - Mesquite Mine Ramps Up Gold Production; Second Quarter Production at High End of Target; Record Output in July
<<
- Gold production of 28,524 ounces of gold is at high end of the target
range for the second quarter

- Gold sales of 22,760 ounces of gold averaged $894 per ounce for the
quarter, at a cost of sales of $548 per ounce

- Record gold production and gold sales achieved in July of
20,112 ounces and 20,950 ounces of gold, respectively

- On track for strong third quarter and 2008

- Impact on cost of sales of industry-wide increase in fuel and
material prices mitigated by operational improvements

- Cash on hand is $34.0 million as of June 30, 2008, including
$7.5 million restricted cash

b0ss
you have to teach me how to control panic?

Vinod,

Read my new book. It's called:

"Don't Panic!...It's only money"

Useful tool to see if your bank or thrif is safe.

Banks and Thrifts Screener

http://tinyurl.com/6roc32

vinod- i can think of four ways to control panic:

(a) small position sizes
(b) inside information
(c) experience
(d) benzodiazepines

wall street uses (b)...i prefer (a) and (c), but i've been thinking of trying (d)...LOL

shark_attack

. If I am managing other people's money like mutual fund manager who the hell wants to panic

David- when you log on, shark's 914a post is yet another example of why i like WGW...they execute well and don't disappoint...

2nd, vinod, qt and all, thanks for all your posting. Did learn some important perspective in trading. Good day to all.

vinod- well said...it's easy to stay cool when collecting fees for managing OPM...all you really need to do is write quarterly reports to the clients explaining why dollar cost averaging makes sense in a bear market..in a bull market, you don't even need to worry about the quarterly reports..

My new book is called "How to trade the markets for fun and no profit"

2nd - I'm not having much luck with a), scaling into b)...

latest from tim Ord

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html

ord's approach seems to be predicated heavily on volume comparisons's b/w prior breakouts and breakdowns. the long picture of the XAU breaking through 150 after a few decades appears significant but i wonder how long we may consolodate around this range before a possible breakout to new highs.

intersting read either way, though im growing less and less enamoured by Ord, i noticed a convinient abscence of his usual wednesday update last week during the PM plunge and wonder if his report that week just fell out of bed compared to price action and it was skipped...

Cara 100 Update:

WFMI - Downgraded to Hold @ Argus

BMY - Target Price Lowered from $30 to $27 @ Argus

Opened up position in QQQQ.

Yesterday it closed above 46 for the first time since June 25th. Resistance around 46 held throughout July and into early August. Breakout is positive for large-cap techs for the short term [1-2 weeks]. Next resistance area around 47.5–48. Will be a short term play with tight stops.

Whoops,

Too early on the UXG / SLW train, thank goodness for trailing stops to lock in small profits.

Letting the price of gold and silver "come to me" . . .

Hey,quit hording the gold. Someone sell me some shares of Geologix (GXEXF). I've got an order for 1000 at 1.52 that's been open for over 10 minutes.

Out of SRS@ $90

Still holding on to SKF..

I want my rally to Dow 11,700 so I can short more

Dr.cosa - It's unfortunate Ord overlooked an opportunity to capitalize on hard-earned respect, perhaps it was by accident.

There are so many mixed signals, short term predictions are impossible IMO (unless you have access to Bills wisdom). I'm watching closely for opportunities and relying on my interpretation of good judgment. Can't use bow and arrow precision in the dark, just set up traps in good spots for future harvesting.

2nd,

You made me laugh twice -- your 9:19 and 9:27 posts.

Thank you!

PWR - Has anyone noticed how this one has been on a steady rise and barely stumbled mid-July?

QQQQ all loaded [46.24, 46.31, 46.39]

Vadym, I read your blog post on stops yesterday. Have you read "Re-examining the Hidden Costs of the Stop-Loss", by Detko, Ma, and Morina?

The conclusion of their study is that, generally, the use of stops has no significant impact on returns but does reduce volatility.

On the other hand, in trending markets stops significantly affect performance. Specifically in an upward trending market(assets with positive expected returns)stops (on long positions) actually reduce expected return. Conversely, In bear markets, stops (on long positions) improve performance.

The corrolary to these results is that in bull markets, stops on short positions will improve returns, and in bear markets, stops on short positions will degrade performance.

In all cases where stops affect performance, it is ones in the 1%-7% range that matter with the tighest stop having the most effect; higher % stops have no affect on performance in all cases.

Thank you for giving it up. Mine, mine, mine.

GXEXF - GEOLOGIX EXPLORATIONS F
Action Qty Price Timing Time & Date(ET)
Buy 1,000 Limit 1.52 Day Only 9:40 am 08/07/2008 ----- -----
Bought 1,000 1.518 Settles on 08/12/2008 9:57 am 08/07/2008 ----- -----

Status: CLOSED - Filled Div. Reinv: No Order #: 79555430

When I said "significantly affect performance", I should have said "affect performance in a statistically significant way". In fact the actual difference in performance of returns is under 2% improvement in the trending scenarios.

GIX.V/GXEXF - Funny. I show last trade of GXEXF @ 1.2798($US), and the last on GIX.V at 1.58($C).

XLF uptrend still intact, & the 50 dma held. Added to DDM this morning @ 62.14

Some decent buy volume candlesticks on the 1-min XLF chart so far, nothing tremendous but we'll see what happens when XLF retests 22.

A round of applause for "Fireworks" (comment above). Thanks for mentioning Korea.

Just between us, IT IS TIME TO PUT THE "K" BACK IN "BRICK." And by that I mean "Korea."

As soon as we get some regime change in the Oval Office (ANY kind of a regime change, just so long as a grownup of ANY political persuasion is answering the phone) responsible people are going to feel safe again doing business in and around the Korean Peninsula.

Part of me still can't quite comprehend how things got so balled up between the US and North Korea. Donald Rumsfeld was selling nuclear technology to NORTH Korea almost until the day his appointment as Defense Secretary was announced. It wasn't even a SECRET. The last time I looked, the Swiss company on whose board Rumsfeld served at the time still had the press release for the North Korean nuclear
technology sale on its website.

In any event, no matter how this Theater of the Absurd got to the point where it is now, I think it can be fixed -- and America and both North and South Korea can settle down to making profits instead of rockets.

I'm going to be watching Korea, big-time.
And not feeling too bad about it ...

REG CROWDER

Aurator - What's the Austin housing market like these days? I hear Pflugerville is selling well...

gold getting pounded.

can anyone confirm that i'm not crazy here: the phrase "bond sell off" refers to rising rates (falling prices) correct?

gold/silver decoupling from us stox?

Chickenpookie,
"For some reason unbeknownst to me, the US public remains faithful to government oversight."
IMO:
For some it's faith. We want to believe our government is striving for the goals in the Preamble to the Bill of Rights — providing for the general welfare. (While some are, they are outnumbered and there is no cavalry coming.)
For others it's conditioning. We're told, "Be sure to vote." Write your representative." (Been there...done that...)
We're a nation of the people, by the people and for the people."
Now we have 24/7 updates — CNBC, the major networks, financial pubs — and even live C-SPAN from congressional committees investigating so in the future "all will be well."
Although events run counter to individual experiences, people are quick to accept reassurances.
And last but by no means least — we have no individual influence and not the time to organize another Tea Party.
There is no substitute for personal monetary oversight — that's why I come here.

Mackinaw,

those studies don't make much sense unless the way stops are being placed is considered. The problem with them is, they tend to apply stops as a ceratin percentage of gain, or certain percentage of portfolio size (I haven't read this particular one you refer to but I suspect it's the same; if I am mistaken pleease correct me).

The problem with such approach is, it's a wrong way to utilize stops. It uses at trader's account size and/or monetary performance to decide where to place stops - as if market knows anything about that. Instead, stop should be placed accordingly to what market says. Market language is language of certain setups, triggers, indications of failure etc.
Let's take the simplest case for illustration: stock consolidated between $30 and $30.50, broke 30.50 with volume increase, triggering long entry. Obviously stop must be placed under 30, as it became a support; breaking of such support indicates trade failure, thus becomes a stop level, right? This is, however, not necessary where stop would be placed by the authors of those studies. A trader's financial particularities could have him place stop at 30.30 for instance, thus taking him out on noise instead of meaningful movement; or at 29, thus needlessly increasing a size of a loss by holding too long after trade failed. Of course one's personal financial consideration must be incorporated in trading setups, but the right way to do it is to place a stop according to what market says and incorporate your personal risk tolerance by varying the position size.

That's the general problem with a lot of studies done by academics; they apply criteria that simply do not maatch what real traders do. Don't want to put down these particular authors without reading their stuff but can't help but ask: have they considered all accounts that went to zero because of absence of stops? That alone should sgnificantly impact the conclusion about how stops impact performance...

ChickenPookie, a quick look at PWR's key stats indicates a stock that is more than fairly valued. So I wonder why it has not sold off with the rest of the market, too.

QT: bear flag on the 15-min chart?

[Bill Cara note:

SEC TO ANNOUNCE MAJOR ENFORCEMENT ACTION INVOLVING AUCTION RATE SECURITIES

The Securities and Exchange Commission’s Division of Enforcement will hold a news conference today, August 7 at 11:15am in the SEC’s briefing room to announce a major enforcement action involving auction rate securities.

If you’re interested, at 11:15am ET, tune in at http://www.connectlive.com/events/secnews/ ]

northforker

Thanks I'll check it out.

FattyArbuckle,
SKF uptrend still intact, & the 200 dma held.

ag/au back on track vs us stock, but there was a big shakeout this ayem. ag spot was a good buy at 16.20 a few mins ago. now 16.44. scary.

David- let me know if you're thinking of flying UAUA today..

NEW BOOK TITLE.....

Addicted to the Game...How I lost everything in pursuit of pirate returns....

By Richard "Dick" Skinner.

Here is a chart on FXP, that is why I am long. I think it could go up 45 pts or fall maybe to 108 area. I like the fundamentals of the banks too :)

http://tinyurl.com/5qs29x

thanks b0ss...

two pieces of conflicting info!
XLF uptrend intact, & the 50 dma holding
SKF uptrend intact, & the 200 dma holding

personally i defer to XLF for the broad movements, since SKF is supposed to track XLF, which is also much more heavily traded. however, i do use SKF / UYG data to time my intra-day entries / exits.

the alternative 2nd mentioned is appealing to me: just grab a coke & put on the TV, can't get a firm reading on which way things are going...

Opps, I meant SKF...

Re: Teekay LNG Partners TGP
(Cara 100 Buy Alert kicked in on 7-30)

Today, Teekay Corp TK says they must restate earnings for the last five years.

TGP is majority owned subsidiary of TK and is being dragged down with the news.

Most freight indices are in a downtrend.

No position in any shipping stocks now.
Follow up on previous discourse in Seaspan SSW (nice dividends):

Stock sold off into earnings release last week and spiked up $2 or so; now settling back down.

Any interest in shipping stocks, anyone?

good trading to all from SoFla

Interesting points, Vadym. Actually the study employed "stops from 1% below the entry price to 99% below the entry price for long positions". So it has nothing to do with portfolio size or percentage of gain.
In your example ($30.50 entry), a stop placed below $30 would be an approximate 2% stop. Fact is, their study found that such stops (in fact ALL stops 1%-7% below the entry price) had a negative impact on your expected returns IF the distribution of returns on the asset has a positive mean. Presumably this is the case in your example or you wouldn't be entering it :).
I think the key here is your mention of "trade failure". A signal, perhaps, that the stock's distribution of returns does not have a positive expectation. Not inconsistent with their results would be the employment of a much lower stop (more than 7%) to accomodate for these failures. Such deep stops do not degrade performance for assets with a positive expected return and in fact, reduce return volatility.

northforker

Thanks again for the heads up. Dumped at 46.53 will retry again later today if it pulls back into the 46.3x's.

Nothing like having your ARS frosted mid summer...

I think this quote from the CEO of JOBS (Chinese Monster.com) sums up the slowdown going on in China:

"During the quarter, we began to see sluggish hiring by our corporate customers amid higher labor costs, challenging conditions for certain industries including exporters and slower economic growth in China. We expect recruitment activity in the third quarter will further moderate as we believe regulations instituted by the government for the Olympic Games will restrict normal business practices for companies in Beijing and indirectly affect businesses nationwide. In addition, we expect individuals will focus more on these once- in-a-lifetime Games in China and less on job searches during this period."

Mackinaw,

I got it. They avoided one fallacy only to fall into another :)

Stop defined in % still doesn't make sense from a trader's perspective. What if chart shows support 4% away from entry price level? wouldn't placing it at 1% be a trading on noise?

See, they do not incorporate major pricnciple traders live by. This principle is, a trader should be exited when an original reason for an entry is no longer valid. In my example from previous post such reason had nothing to do with percentage. It was break of the consolidation range 30 - 30.50. The very structure of this setup gives an idea of what will signal failure: it will be break of support of consolidation range. If one uses double bottom formation for an entry, his signal of failure will be breakdown of the previous lows; if one trades off a certain story, his signal will be story change; etc etc.

None of these vital things is being considered in a study I assume. I am not even mentioning different ways of ENTRY - aggressive vs regular vs conservative... Traders incorporate a lot of things in their action that academics don't in their staudies. I mean, there are books that prove (with stats of course) that traders can not outperform the market, that market can not be timed... we all know it's false, don't we :)

REG,

I lived in Korea for a year and a half and enjoyed the heck out of it. Easy flight accesss to all of Asia and I really liked the folks with whom I worked. Any insight into growing Korean businesses would be greatly appreciated here.

"a TRADER should be exited " in above is "a TRADE should be exited" of course... LOL

Short C

[Bill Cara note: Good move sharkie. But can anybody tell me why Citi has three months to buy back $8 billion of these phony auction rate securities from individuals, but almost 17 months to buy back $12 billion from institutions? Where's the logic? Also, Bill Seidman seemed surprised that the $100 million fine was on the light side for such 'egregious' offenses. My question is, why is nobody going to jail for fraud? What kind of lesson is being taught by the authorities here?]

Ah well, since we're talking Korea here today, I have to mention that DC Chemical (a Korean petrochemical giant) has a significant investment in the oft-mentioned Evergreen Solar (ESLR: currently in doldrums).

I readily admit being partially responsible for ESLR's "oft-mentioned" status. ;)

Only "blue-sky" days for Olympics workers?

wow - Citi to buy their crap back at par!

exited UYG

If you guys really want to make yourself sick, take a look at the "DealBook" section of the "semi-official" New York Times today. Here's a little piece of the story I'm talking about:

TOP STORY
Where Did Wall Street Go Wrong?

Magnifying Glass
How did Wall Street fail to foresee the financial meltdown of the last year? A group of finance-industry executives released a report Wednesday examining that question. They also suggested what companies can do to improve risk management.

There was a bit of a mea culpa in the 172-page report, written by chief risk officers and senior executives at banks like Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch and Citigroup.

"Virtually everybody was frankly slow in recognizing that we were on the cusp of a really draconian crisis," said E. Gerald Corrigan, a managing director at Goldman Sachs and a chairman of the Counterparty Risk Management Policy Group III , which released the report.

In a cover letter to Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr., the group attributed some of the crisis to human psychology.

"The root cause of financial market excesses on both the upside and the downside of the cycle is collective human behavior -- unbridled optimism on the upside -- and fear -- bordering on panic -- on the downside," the letter said.

[Excerpt from New York Times story ends here.]

**************************************

So investors EVERYWHERE IN THE CIVILIZED WORLD have been gutted, pan fried and eaten like a freshly-caught sea bass.

And Hank Paulson wonders, "How could this happen?"
And who better to turn to for the truth than Goldman, Merrill, Citi and Lehman?

Well, I don't think this is going to fool anybody with two or more surviving brain cells. But you have to admire the sheer depravity of it.

REG CROWDER

BP - I too admire the Korean people. They are hard working, well educated, and friendly.

Mackinaw and Vadym,

Mac: Thank you for initiating and engaging in this discussion with Vadym.

Vadym: thank you for your responses. They make wonderful sense to me.

Re: Central Bank Rate Decisions

They will all be required to lower rates sooner or later because of a rotation of capital into the bond markets. Even though the ECB raised rates by a quarter of a percentage point, they have now overshot their own bond yields:

http://www.ecb.int/stats/money/yc/html/index.en.html

The long-awaited third decline in a triple waterfall crash of rates in the US should be imminent:

¥/$ trade stockcharts.com

http://tinyurl.com/62ulcy

Note that the ¥/$ is very far off its uptrend and in a rout. The Japanese central bank has not budged on its rates, even though inflation is well advanced, and stock markets are declining. High oil prices are only just beginning to work their way through to the consumer, so any signs of moderation in inflationary pressure is still some time off. Any major declines in currencies around the world against the $US will be supportive of gold in those currencies, and thus provide a positive bias for $US prices.

Gold is not yet accepted as a monetary instrument, so any move towards reducing prohibitions against the exchange of gold into currency and vice versa is probably the next step. When you purchase gold you pay sales taxes, but not on bonds or equities. So royalty taxes, sales taxes and anything of the kind reduce gold's monetary status. However, countries that allow exchange of physical gold for currency and vice versa will probably see some support under their monetary system, as the exchange of gold will set a value on the paper.

Out on a tiny commission loss. I think their desk trades against the shorts at a moment like this.

If I were trading on The Street and didn't commissions I would "always" make money. Like 100 times a day.

FranSix

Several weeks ago Vinod made the comment that traders where he worked told him the Fed rate would be 1.5 by the end of the year.

[Isn't that correct Vinod?]

Bill - You did it again. Yesterday, you said to watch TNX (yield) and if it dropped, financials and PM would drop also.

Well, sir, today XLF gapped down at open, GLD didn't move at open then headed down, but TLT and SHY gapped up (meaning Bond/Note yield gapped down).

Thanks again.

KP84 - I've been watching shipping for some time now but haven't been able to spot the patterns. That FRO div shines right through the thick fog but I can't hear the horn yet...

Vadym - "A trader should exit" either way, we understand your meaning. The concept was communicated, thank you.

shark - then get a no fee trading account, man. They're out there...

CP : shipping

That John Fredriksen of FRO et al. has had the midas touch over the years.
Ship Finance SFL has performed well. Big Divs.

My watchlist:
SSW
TK
and a mini micro cap: Sino Global Shipping SINO - a recent IPO
It's only a ship agency. It's not a shipowner/operator/charterer. Just a vendor to them.

TGP is a master limited partnership and I'm not messing with the paperwork on that one any of my accounts.

It's all about freight rates, ain't it, with these shipping stocks. They're trending down.

Fog Horns??
when you hear one prolonged blast every two minutes, watch out. ;^)

Blowout Preventer,

Sorry, I took a long time to get back. I was hosing myself down after reading a story in The New York Times.

I'll give you a taste of what I am discovering about Korea. A good friend of mine, Andy, is working in Korea and he told me about getting a high-speed data/video line installed in his apartment on Seoul, South Korea.

Based upon my experience in the US and Canada with cable TV and telephone installers, I believe that any society that can produce cable TV and telephone installers who ACTUALLY INSPIRE ADMIRATION in their customers IS DOING SOMETHING RIGHT!

Andy tells me that less than two hours after you call and ask for a high speed data line at your Seoul, South Korea, apartment, there is a guy there hooking you up.

It doesn't matter what language you speak when you call. You can talk to them in English, Korean, Malay, Portugese, Spanish, Chinese, whatever. They will find a way (politely and with total respect for you as a valued customer or customer-to-be) to figure out what you want and sell it to you.

Most big buildings in Seoul are pre-wired. So, almost before you know what happened, you are hooked up to a faster digital connection that you ever imagined existed.

If your building has NOT BEEN PRE=WIRE AND YOU ARE ON THE 18TH FLOOR OF A 27-FLOOR HIGH-RISE, NO PROBLEM.

Less than two hours after your telephone call requesting service, a guy is dangling at the the end of a cable outside your 18th floor window, dragging the wire for your high-speed data line into your apartment.

South Korea is getting A Lot of Things Right. They do good work.

North Korea builds and operates submarines that can come within 500 yards of a US Navy aircraft carrier wiithout being detected. (The US Navy doesn't want to talk about this.)

This tells me that North Korea has a VERY STRONG AND DEEP BENCH in the hard sciences, metallurgy, mechanical engineering, accoustic engineering, electronic engineering, etc.

When the right peacemaker comes upon the scene to bring together North and South Korea, this hard-working unified nation will bring many, wonderful benefits to the world.

SPECIAL BONUS RESPONSE FOR BLOWOUT PREVENTER: If Uncle is calling you offering you ridiculous amounts of money to help him out, do one thing before you sign a contract. Ask a few questions about the anthrax vaccination that Uncle wants to give you. If the enemy doesn't kill you, the anthrax vaccination will.

REG CROWDER

[Bill Cara note: Thanks for this eye-opener on Korea. I remember a fellow in China telling me 20 years ago how he would order furniture on display in a downtown store and then have to rush home to beat the delivery. Doing a successful business is all about serving the customer right. We don't see enough of that in North America. Too much money being spent on fancy brochures that build our expectations beyond the reality.]

number2son - What's up with ESLR, jasco kiss of death, or the economics of supply/demand?

Man, I NEVER understand all this trading interest in Eastern Platinum (ELR on the TSX). I looked at it one year ago and laughed at its projects. Literally holes in the ground with rusty old wheels and baskets to lower miners that have been out of use for decades. Poor infrastructure too in SA. They just seem to burn-up cash year after year and over half of their assets fall into the opaque "intagibles" category. Why bother? Has it become some speculative proxy for the Platinum spot on the TSX?

Bill,
So SEC and NY Attorney General is making Citi make investors whole. What's the big picture significance of this? What will be the Wall Street spin? I notice the spokespeople were all women. Not members of HB&B social club, but decent people imbued with common sense, respect for the law and the fiduciary duty that HB&B owe to their clients. Doing a good job for the common people of mainstreet America!

kp84 - Thx, will keep listening for the 2-minute blast. Maybe then I can understand more about declining rates (In the case of liq&bulk I weight capacity growth effect over economic decay, container being hit by econ. decay).

C & MS - C's only down 3.6%. MS has a fine by MA, but is green as we speak? Any inkling?

Nasdaq 100 indx weekly chart.

http://tinyurl.com/5t43ja

Both Full STO & MACD signals a "Buy"

Daily
http://tinyurl.com/5nevk9

Note breakout of resistance at 46

Looks to me a rally [short term mind you] is about to start.

[basic service: it will not let me save my annotations. Sorry]

Did anyone jump on SNDK when the buy alert went off? Up 19% in days. do I jump off?

WFMI - Gap widening...

Out of SKF@ $120

I hope we get the tech rally that QT is talking about. Maybe it will lift all tides, so I can fire my shorts again.

All cash, except WGW

bOss

In the next week or too could be the best time to load up on shorts. The Dow will be lifting up next.

Macinaw - "speculative proxy" is primarily what I see when I look into my jr. minor kaleidoscope. The speculators have resources for investigating validity, and have picked these clean to the bone.

Vad (and others)

Tell me about "no fee" trading accounts please.
Vad, who do you use?

SNDK is smoking today up 9.3% just a sec ago

The "free" trading account my dad used to use charged him 3% of his balance every year, amounting to several thousands in fees. He changed to TDAmeritrade for $10/trade, much cheaper...

pgray - SNDK - long on 7/30 @ 13.81; holding.

sharkie - BofA offers commission-free trading; am sure they're making up for it somewhere else through order routing, market making, etc.

photogrey - a) keep it till it stalls b) take the 19%

I like 19%

(no position)

"If you begin right you will not see your profitable position seriously menaced; and then you will find no trouble in sitting tight."
-- Jesse Livermore

Bill/korvus - Thanks for helping me "begin right" on SNDK.

SKF - Too bad it's not Friday...

entered QQQQ $46.74. Stop $46.67

Photogray re SNDK

Stick to your plan. If you didn't have one, make a decision on one.

FWIW, you could follow Bill's plan to sell once it breaks below 70 daily RSI7. Of course it hasn't closed above 70 daily RSI7, but I noted it did kiss it earlier today. Will be interesting if it closes above 70.

On the weekly the RSI 7 just crossed above the RSI 14 which is a positive indicator that some follow.

Good trade pgrey. It is a bear market! Good luck!

shark - your bids should a multiple larger than the fee...

shark,

others pointed to disadvantages of "no fee" accounts, I concur. Either they have huidden fees or they sell order flow or (most likely) both. There are also variations,like "your MARKET order is free while limit will carry commissions fees" - obviously your fills will be less than favorable on those "free" orders as counterpart will simply be trading against you pocketing the difference between the fill they give you and the one they can get from open market or from their inventory.

Similarly, selling order flow means your broker is essentially trading against you... Simple example of how it works to your disadvantage: you send an order to buy at 20; slight execution delay occurs during which a stock does something; if it goes up, you get no fill. If it goes down, you get a fill at 20 while yor broker happily covers shares he just sold to you. He got riskless profit, you got filled only on a trade that started with loss and missed one that started working right away. Yuck.

Mack - Super-close stop below last little low. Odds are you'll get stopped out for miniscule loss. But hey, maybe not. Good luck!

REG CROWDER: on anthrax vaccination

I worked within disease prevention for 2 years, building systems for the state of Washington. At that time the US government began pushing smallpox vaccination that boggled the mind in being very very wrong from a professional point of view. 95% of us were amazed at the whole program. We viewed it as a warning sign not of an attack, but more that something was happening internally at the highest levels which was wrong...

At the end of the day, most of it could be pointed towards sending money to high level friends who ran the various companies that supplied the vaccinations.

However, one thing you have to understand is persepctive. You and I view life as an individual, where we make our choices based on what is best for us.

Government and larger programs like health, make their choices purely upon numbers and the larger society as whole. As a result most of their end decisions are not good for us as an individual but rather only for society and often are at odds of our own personal best interest.

I mention all this since everyone now is seeing this exact problem in the financial system also. Where choices are either (1) being funneled towards friends and big money on purpose or (2) the choices make no sense since they are trying to prop up the existing social system

This creates an interesting problem for us. Since we must choose what is best for us, not for the larger society. Instead hopefully to Let our actions ripple in kindness but also while being kind to ourselves to balance out those choices. So we can thrive rather than get hurt at the expense of "society".

In other words I stay far and wide away from 95% of vaccinations since they offer more harm than good in a stable society. At times when going into more dangerous conditions they make sense... but not at times of peace...

Likewise stay far out from the mainstream finance system since all the advice and actions are geared towards not supporting "us" but the "system"

As Kaimu says: Question authority! So you can best find a safe personal path in this time of conflicted interests.

I personally gladly find shelter here where we can share information at the personal level.

I thought that little low was a re-test of a breakout - we'll see :)

Thanks Vadym,

That's pretty much what I thought. Thanks for the heads up.

Ritholtz speaks his piece~!

USUALLY, he appears on Kudlow/CNBC, who hardly lets him get a word in edge-wise before Mr. Drill, Drill, Drill starts to ridicule him.

While waiting to comment on AIG earnings, he now gets to speak his piece, and he's IMPRESSIVE:

http://tinyurl.com/6z4t67

It's a reasonable, very low risk place to have placed a stop for a short-term scalping trade.

pgrey - If you keep SNDK, you could place a stop limit floor underneath.

REG CROWDER - Koreas

Also, S. Korea has studied Germany's botched reunification up and down and sideways. I doubt they'll make the same mistakes that Germany did !

In college in the late '60s, I had a Korean tae kwon do instructor (duk son sung, former teacher to the Korean national police) who must have been 50 years old, but had a rock hard body. He put out a book 20 years later with pix that made him appear unchanged.

Korean will power and discipline is INCREDIBLE !

shark - They don't pull that limit crap on you at BAC. You have to maintain a checking account with a minimum deposit requirement. They do nickle and dime the little guys to death.

BAC can and will change the rules midstream without notice, vinod experienced this recently.

Casey Kochmer,

Indeed...

As you have said so correctly your own teachings:

Heaven and Hell are not after life
Heaven and Hell are within life.
It's in movement we create joy
It's in despair we cement walls.

WFMI - I think they're dead in water - any opinions?

We are asleep in a bed of snakes!

These guys (BigBanks) have no fear and no consequences to their actions. Read this article, from Business Week by Matthew Goldstein:! Note who is pushing this action - The Treasury Dept (Paulson).

"Now Wall Street Wants Your Pension, Too

JPMorganChase, Citi, Cerberus, and Morgan Stanley are among the firms lobbying Washington to let them take over and run corporate pension funds.
... The Treasury Dept. on Aug. 6 offered a blueprint for lawmakers on Capitol Hill to allow "financially strong entities in well-regulated sectors" to acquire pension plans , after the IRS ruled that the concept needed legislative approval. "The Administration's proposal says these deals should only be permitted when the acquiring entity has a higher credit-rating than the seller," says Charles Millard, director of the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. (PBGC), the federal insurer of last resort of corporate pension plans. "Such a transaction creates greater security for retirees and the pension system." The issue will now, no doubt, move to Congress after the election...
... But the gambit to turn pensions into for-profit enterprises raises troubling questions. Critics, including some on Capitol Hill, worry that financial firms don't have workers' best interest at heart, which would put some 44 million current and future retirees at risk. "We think it's just a terrible idea," says Karen Friedman, policy director for advocacy group Pensions Rights Center. "In the wake of the subprime crisis, it would be crazy to allow financial institutions to manage these plans." ...."
http://tinyurl.com/5pbxk9

So it will wait until after the elections so Congress also will have no fear of consequences to thier actions. The only plan of action that I can think of and which holds any promise is to vote every incumbent out of office. That wan't stop anything for long, but it WILL slow them down some while they fight among themselves for power, jmho.

Scottrade's working for me. Or should I say, I'm working for Scottrade!

spot - The general public doesn't realize the size of the crap sandwich which is about to be shoved down their throats. They place too much trust in their "elected" officials.

Chicken,

WFMI....I wouldn't touch them with a ten foot pole. Stanley Kowalski, a ten foot Pole, said he wouldn't touch them either.

Regards

shk - b)

Oh well, shook-out of QQQQ for a tiny $35 loss. Back to the books. :(

WFMI - I'm so underwater with them it's not funny any more.... Dump???

strength today has been in semi's. I'm seeing divergences in rsi & mcdm in cubes on the 60-min chart. anybody agree?

GSS: $ 2.06

Black rock inc. buys 38,700 (26.87 %) shares bringing their current holdings to 182,700 shares as shown by filings made public on 2008-08-06.

The Fed's next move is down

With 5 million American homes vacant, the Big 3 auto giants heading towards bankruptcy and some US$4 trillion already wiped off of American home values, things look bad for American consumer demand. With consumer spending accounting for 72% of GDP, this should ensure recession.

The latest fall in commodity prices has given Bernanke the wiggle room that he has hoped for desperately these past months. The pullback in oil and other commodities will give him the golden opportunity to lower interest rates further to avoid the looming recession from morphing into depression.

http://tinyurl.com/572j23

Chicken,

I wouldn't want to offer any sell advice on WFMI but IMHO, it's nice to spend money on organic foods, if you can afford it.

If you believe, as I do, that the U.S. economy is in a death spiral, this has to mean fewer customers for premium priced food.

I don't like the medium term prospects for WFMI and would be afraid to invest for the longer term at this point in the economic cycle.

Just my 2 cents as a proud member of DENSA.

Regards

Chickenpookie at August 7, 2008 10:21 AM :

Austin housing market is holding up better than most. Sales over the last year are down 18% according to my agent. They don't yet undertsand the new paradigm, and expect prices not to fall much. My neighborhood is seeing maybe 10% declines, but DHI is still building and selling some new homes.

I think we are on a time delay here but will not escape reversion to the mean and undershoot. 25% down is my guess until hyperinflation curbs the nominal fall. However I expect real vaules to fall my more than 50% priced in Gold.

I've explained the whole ball of yarn to some of the locals who would listen, and was watching out the corner of my eye for someone bringing a straight jacket.

Everyone still thinks gas is coming way back down and they still buy huge pickups and suvs. Some of these guys are so big, they have to. ;)

jk484 - This train ain't leaving the station until real estate finds a floor (financing & well paying employment reqd.).

IMO - Homes are still too expensive for all the minimum wage workers to absorb. While government and lobbyist's were lining their pockets since the 80's, they forgot all about the little guy. I wouldn't be surprised to see another 30% drop in some real estate markets. Think about it...

Let's see comparison data with the 50's when only one parent worked.. There's a target for working out the economics.

WMT - down near 6%. Any interests out there?

Anyone notice the CADUSD=X cratering over the last few days. Since it tried to break par July 21 it has plummeted almost $0.05.

Might be worth looking at some CAD funds for those USD investors. Wouldn't this make TSX-listed funds cheaper?

XIU.TO?

GSS - hits long-term support at 2, gets bought by Blackrock. Wonder if they know what they are doing. Does anyone know GSS's production costs? I remember they were high ...

"LONG BEACH (Mffais.com) - Blackrock Inc added additional 38,700 (26.87 %) shares of Golden Star Resources Ltd (GS5.BE), bringing their current holdings to 182,700 shares as shown by filings made public on 2008-08-06."

Aurator - That's what I've been hearing about Austin. Were you there during the S&L crisis? You know that's why Austin is doing "well" now? Austin was still repressed and trying to recover from the last disaster... it's so cheap there now, they're still building homes!!! If you want a window, look back to the S&L crisis!!!! Yes, Austin is still recovering from S&L and now may be approaching overshoot.

And to think folks believe everythings just gonna straighten out in a couple of years. There's a very rude awakening coming, US citizens are gonna have to eat an big ol' double-cheese crud sandwich.

SKF approaching HOD. Could be ready to move higher ...

Aurator - talk to the folks who were there 20 yrs ago... They're likely to remember very well.

c3 - WMT

Its monthly chart shows a trading range back to 1999 bounded by 42 on the bottom and 60+ on the top.

Bill motivated me to sell puts at 42. I'll do it again next time it touches down there. THAT's shooting fish in a barrel! This is who knows what ...

FWIW.

Well, today's money flowed to the semiconductors ($SOX) while they pulled a trailer filled with disk drive ($DDX), hardware ($HWI) and computer tech ($XCI) equities. The Utilities held their own, I guess as a safe haven in "choppy waters"?

This sector-rotation stuff intrigues the heck out of me, because I haven't broken the code to make it appear anything other than arbitrary on many days . . .

[Bill Cara note: There are many tells in the market. How many recall what I said a couple days ago about rapidly dropping T-Bill yields? How many of you noticed the T-Bill yield yesterday drop -6.4%? Today, the Financials--particularly the weakest--like LEH, FNM, FRE, MER, WB, etc, are getting hammered.]

Anyone else like MAI (TSX) with Rob McEwen just joining the board?

http://tinyurl.com/5bfgxn

Stv

WMT -

Jock, thanks for the reply. From the video posted above, if FED to lower the rate further, that means economy will continue to struggle. WMT'd be a safe heaven again, but perhaps at lower 50's.

Chic: A large portion of the problem with the "real estate crowd" is that they think this is a normal down cycle among the normal ebb and flow of RE wave action.

It's not, it's a credit phenomenon rendering all of their wisdom on how RE markets operate worthless. It IS different this time. They may want to take a group charter to Zimbabwe for educational credits.

Once the credit bubble and lax loan standards vanished, that game was over forever. Even the return of same won't reflate housing IMHO. And that is the end of easy money to feed the consumers, who are 72% of the economy. One bubble has popped the other, and the Govt is trying to step in and throw money around like the consumers used to. That won't work, and will permamently debase the currency and ultimate pop the Bond Bubble. "And then they will have done it". ;) I'm buying more CEF today.

CEF - Aurator - good idea. I'm waiting for POG to reach $850 to finish loading the F-150 and add to SKF if the gains continue through tomorrow. Holding SKF as my equties hedge and offing those equities whenever possible.

Tim Wood commenting the bearish setup ahead is "possibly the most bearish in the history of the stock market", similar to June 1930. This would mean the 4 year cycle failed 8 months from cycle start, and we get the remainder in a down trend. If I understand his thesis. I might subscribe for a while, at least thru the crisis.

Chic: Waiting to load SKF and SRS again, to see if we get the run up to 12,200 McHugh is calling for over the next weeks. After that I'm reading more armageddon stories and may bail on some positions I wanted to hold long term. Here are some I think will be safe to hold if we hit disaster:

CEF, MEAFX, FXF

Maybe CEO, PBRA, UNG, UOY

Defense SKF, SRS, SCC, DXD, QID, TWM, REW, etc.

If Wood is right, the 1930 period saw equities lose 90% of their values. SKF to 1000? ;)
I'm not going to be cute tweaking the beta of the portfolio while we are stretched out around the event horizon. Tin foil hats and ammo.

Trading principle...

Don't do whatever you think you should do right away. Stocks have a strong tendency to do the opposite of what they "should" prior to fulfilling expectations.

In addition, this game is extremely predatory. Stocks that "should" go down often go up, THEN down. Stocks that "should" go up dither, sometimes for what seems like eternity, or worse yet fall prior to being taken up.

I hate seeing my shorts work out...when I'm not in them anymore:)

Bill's on top of things here, I can see he doesn't have any qualms about changing his mind when the dynamics shift.

[Bill Cara note: ???

It's true you have to go with the flow in tactical execution of a trading plan, but your strategic thinking ought not change much between intermediate-term cyclic reversals.]

stvh,
I've been long MAI for quite some time. They have 49% of a producing Au mine in Argentina that's managed by Hoschild (sp), who know their way around S America. They have a copper prospect also in Argentina that's pulled some good holes, but I don't really know enough about the economics of Cu mining to know if its going to be significant. McEwen's been a holder for a while.

Larry Summers in the FT: his brilliance is matched only by his hubris!

BUT, he's the first to do for POLICY what Bill and Barry Ritholtz and just a few others do for TRADERS.

Summmers really gets his head around the problem. Remember he's the guy who managed the Thai and Russian/LCTM crises in the 90's, and feels a cut or ten above the series of clowns who have run Treasury for Bush. (Summers was the youngest prof. ever tenured at Harvard, World Bank Chief Economist, Treasury secretary, and Harvard Pres. till he spoke the unspeakable at Harvard). I guess he has a right to be a touch arrogant!

In the off-chance (10%?) that Obama survives "fear and smear" to be elected, mayb Summers comes back and succeeds (30%?) and America doesn't look like Japan through the 90's. I'll cling to that 3% chance! (Somehow, I don't think "white-haired dude" would appoint a Treasury Sec. with Summers' chutzpah or vision ....

Anyway, I think his piece in the FT is well worth a read, if you'd like to feel hope "spring eternal".

Remeber, if you just register, you can DL 30 FT articles free each month. Search under "summmers" and the title of the sereies "the big freeze" (all of which are EXCELLENT).

In the dumbed-down USA, it takes real WORK not to be stupid! And reading Summers is like listening to Economics 101 all over again .... FWIW.

GS, MS -

GS is red all over while MS's holding its shirts. Something's cooking?

Welcome to Alice in Wonderland. The Fed will soon be able to pump up the money supply without changing the federal funds rate. Instead it will pay interest on its reserves:

http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/epr/forthcoming/0808keis.pdf

Re: Bond Yields

Looks like we're following very hard on 1.5 today:

http://finance.yahoo.com/bonds

Best word that I can think of is "trapped" as in a trapped market.

You have a bull trap in financials and a potential one in the airlines. You have a bear trap in gold, but a trapped investor pool in that sector's mining stocks.

You have a real trap in commodities which has sprung. Trapped real estate investors and homeowners.

Consumers are trapped in inflationary times with burgeoning unemployment.

Governments are trapped with the cost of capital and their never ending lending facilities.

Here's some statistical data. While Fridays are down days 79% of the time, in 27 weeks this year, 10 Thursdays have been down days.
These down Thursdays have been followed by down Fridays 9 times (90%) in total, and 100% of the time when Thursdays have gone down more than 0.75%.
Past performance is no indication of future performance but percentage tennis works.

Afterthought - Whom would "white-haired guy"appoint to run Treasury?

More than likely his close friend and long-standing economic advisor, Phil Gramm - whose legislative efforts brought us off-balance-sheet CDO's, and whose wife Wendy (at CFTC) brought us the "Enron Loophole" for off-exchange energy trading!

McCain will have promised Cindy, or concluded on his own, that 1 term is enough. (Imagine him running for a 2nd term at age 76!)

So, McCain will be free to appoint whom he chooses without considering the public reaction ...

Had a meeting at work in the morning, so I am just getting to read the daily comments.

Shark, 2nd_ave: thank's for the post on WGW. I'll be sure to buy it in a couple of weeks, when the summer stock rally should be winding down and the attention will be switching to commodities again (since the seasonal rise in gold starting September will be nearing). If commodities and junior stocks take off before that and I miss a good entry into WGW, then I'll be happy about my other mining/exploration stocks doing well. And if WGW takes off alone and flies -- oh well. That would be unexpected and so not logical to bet money on.

As for UAUA, I'd prefer waiting for it to drop below $9 before placing a buy stop order at $9. I made a lot of money on it already and now I want to minimize the chance of going down from $10 to $4, which I can potentially do since I haven't learned yet how to exit losing positions. :)

DavidV

TBT/DXKSX on the watchlist...

The Thursday the week before options expiration is usually a misdirection day, according to Todd Harrison. The market is taken down (up) so the market makers can sell puts (calls) that they then make worthless upon option expiration.

I just bought some TBT at $68.35, increasing my holding by 33% up to 1/5 of my portfolio. Earlier in the week, I sold the same number of shares at $70 and then $71, so $68.35 is a good place for entering again. Trading TBT is working well so far (buying X shares for each $1 drop and then selling X shares whenever the price would rise $1 above the one at which this particular bunch was purchased)-- much better than holding it long-term. I'll be sure to sell all my TBT at the end of August, though, when the chance of a new market plunge will become significant.

DavidV

Sold half SRS @ 92.60

Regarding Minera (MAI), they are selling very cheap, selling for less then Los Azules property alone, then you get San Jose and rising cash flow for free. But, market does not care so it is very depressed, like other jr producers.

Don't hear SDS mention much here. Anyone have any thoughts on that.

Did the old "catching a falling knife" on QQQQ. At least this time the floor was where the charts said it would be @ 46. Looks to be coming back.

SDS: May not fall as much as counterparts DXD QID REW etc as it contains energy that I expect to remain strong over the long term. Will the financial component down over power the energy component up?

Picked up some more SWC today at $7 and placed a sell limit order for these shares at $7.9 (this would sell 1/5 of my SWC holding). Also, placed a sell limit order on SLW for $12 (to sell 1/4 of my holding).

French_Canuck: I wrote a little about SLW yesterday, basically referring to their latest earnings announcement, which has a lot of useful info and future prospects.

DavidV

Moab - thurs a week before options expiration.

Do you have a cite on that article. Is he really saying that the entire market is moved so ppl can sell options six days from expiration? Must take a powerful load of capital for THAT manipulation ...

Here is an article by Jeff Cooper explaining misdirection Thursday (in the middle of the article):

http://tinyurl.com/6rlc8s

"In addition, Thursday the week before options expiration is also what I call a Misdirection Day. The option arbs will often attempt to suck premium out of the market in a head fake prior to the genuine directional bias for the coming week. Sometimes that misdirection lasts the entire Thursday, but often the misdirection move is over in the first few hours of trading on the Thursday the week before options expiration."

My memory was that Todd Harrison referred to it repeatedly but perhaps I confused him with Jeff Cooper.

ALOHA !!

Tomorrow is Friday and more gold down time ... The infamous "they" will try to take it down prior to the weekend just to scare any longs that may still be left and make everyone who works at MER and LEH feel good about their paper shuffling! I wonder which bank will fail tomorrow? We'll find out on Saturday!

Lot of gold and commodity trashing so something BIG is in the pipe that someone at the FED and US Treasury don't like! HA!!

The rats at the Forex are jumping from one sinking ship to the other. The Euro is admitting problems so they jump to the US Peso ... Don't tell me the US Peso is still considered a "safe haven"?

MONETARY COLLAPSE is my prediction.

ATTENTION CIA ... ATTENTION CIA !!!

ATTENCION CIA ... ATTENCION CIA !!!

Venezuela is ready for you ...
Venezuela esta listo para usted ... Chavez no quiere bailar pero la jente esta listo!

Action like what happened this a.m. in the Independent Oil & Gas stocks like EOG are simply beyond my Jedi-powers. Someone put too much baby powder on the dance floor and I went skidding away . . .

Kaimu: Did you take your meds today?

At least with EOG you can blame it on Enron. I'm dancing with XTO and getting toes stepped on.
(Learning two-step in free time.)

Kaimu doesn't take meds. Kaimu IS the med:)

Reading Wood's site for his concerns of a damaging set up. It boils down to this: "
the 4-year cycle low occurred at the January/
March lows and we now have a failed 4-year
cycle at play, ... this is pretty much
the same structural/cyclical setup that occurred
in 1930." These are the nuggets I keep in my shirt pocket.

After the " above there should be: if. The HTML genie removed the bracketed text.

Commodities sell off smacks of an overt attempt to "paint the market" to support political agendas. The USD bounce is a joke. Schiff sees through it, many here see through it, yet there are enough lemmings with blinders or puppets of the Bush administration to paint a rosy picture for "a while". They are just coiling the spring for the coming 3 of 3 down that "noone will see coming". Gold, Oil, Asian currencies, Swiss Francs, and probably some Yen should work.

Matt simmons predicted early this year that all the chatter about global warming would be replaced by peak oil concern by the election. Tree huggers a bit quieter after their $100 fill ups.

Thanks to all who offered direction re SNDK. I chose to sell. Variety of reasons. I am not at computer all day. Smarter to have set close stop as I think hot money is looking for a home. I am underwater on other small positions, I guess to take profit is to decrease stress also. This is still a bear market. I don't want to try to buck the trend.
peace

Bill-- Please help here... MER and CITI are going to allow the auction rate securities they sold to be redeemed at par... MER 12B and CITI 7B ,, NY is collecting a 50M fine and about a dozen states are starting their own action... MY question is that MER and CITI boldly proclaimed that it will not "hurt" them other than reputation...who will this hurt??? THe municipalities that issued these floaters at a low rate will now have to payoff/ redeem them... what effect will this have in the mktplace?

Colin Twiggs readers.

He has charts and a write up called the "Debt Trap" which you may find interesting.One graph shows Household Debt to GDP

2008:100%
1930[Start of The Depression]:44% [declines to 12% in 1943]

http://tinyurl.com/5j8osz

"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit (debt) expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit (debt) expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved."

~ Ludwig von Mises: founder of the Austrian school of economics

If I might think "out loud" a bit, I would be surprised to see a bank failure this weekend. Today's (surprise?) ruling might be the extent of tactical maneuvers for the week. Think about it, what better way to burn the shorts than by hitting them with wave after wave of surprise. Would no closures be another surprise? Maybe...

This makes me think we're entering a bear trap for the next few days.

Bill - Thanks for the reminder on strategic planning vs tactical maneuvering. There are some additional aspects to developing robust processes which I intend to review for applicability.

misdirection day-

so did they sell (ultimately) worthless puts or calls today? is it as easy as saying they took the market down today in order to take it up next week? i would guess put buyers who bought early today sold near the close...and maybe it's the call buyers who bought early today who end up donating their premiums as the market continue to decline?

continueS to decline...

BH - WFMI - Agreed, that goose is cooked and digested! Sending the sailor to sea...

Here's a link to the Treasury Yield Curve Rates, straight from the "Big House of Easy Money" itself.

After Bill's recent teaching on market indicators, this page is going on my bookmarks as a check once-daily page. I'll never trade SKF without it ;-)

http://tinyurl.com/edwnu

I got this directly off of Colin Twiggs' excellent Trading Diary of today. Anyone learning to trade prices in the last year and a half can relate. And, I guess those that have already "arrived" can too . . .

"Lampis the shipowner, being asked how he acquired his wealth, answered: With no difficulty, my great wealth; but my small wealth (my first gains), with much labor."

~ Epictetus: Enchiridion

So many interesting and useful posts it took me time to go through all
Not posting all trade but here is few
Sell 100 Shares of SKF
Filled at $124.6405
Sell 100 Shares of SKF
Filled at $124.40
Sell 100 Shares of SKF
Filled at $124.1505
Sell to Close Put 5 Contracts of -OEBUS
Filled at $21.00
Sell to Close Put 5 Contracts of -OEBTP
Details Filled at $4.40
Sell to Close Put 5 Contracts of -OEBUP
Filled at $14.00
most of them I enter today
and did good today

Beware the advice on using stops. Stops only work well in orderdy declines.

During a dislocation, you are entering a "market order" to sell at whatever the gap down is. The gap is usually followed by a bounce, which you can observe while in cash.

You can't set stops and leave for vacation, have a crash, and not be virtually wiped out.

Aurator,

we are discussing general idea of applying stops to the trades that go against one's position vs sitting on a losing position hoping it would come back. You are talking about mechanics of using stops (mental vs hard), additionally narrowing it to specific situation (leaving on vacation). Different topics, really.

It didn't seem very different when they zapped me! Point taken.

Misdirection day -

Today's direction down would be the opposite of next weeks direction into OpEx. I take it that option arbs sold puts to people who are led to think the market is rolling over. Then next week they are squeezed into expiration. Lets see what happens.

On a related topic, biiwii blog has an excellent chart up here:
http://biiwii.blogspot.com/2008/08/putcall-ratio.html

When the ema(20) of the put/call ratio has reached 0.90 over the last year the market has topped out.

If anyone has any more links to bond sites, please send them along. Since the beginning I have been studying the WIR’s and never could understand the bond relationship to the rest of the capital market dance. Bill’s comments of the last few days are helping me understand more.

On another note I have been looking at new and used high-end autos the last few weeks. Not that I need more cars, but now is a great time to buy used Escalade, Navigator, Lexus for maybe 30-40% less than just 2 months ago. There are waves of them coming in off lease every week and no demand (or less candidates able to get financing). I think why should I care about gas prices. If I get 15 miles per gallon, it only cost 2k more a year when gas is $6 than $4 if I go 15k miles a year. I made almost that today on just one 200-share trade of skf.

As I think about gas powered cars and new technology to fuel vehicles it makes me wonder how rapidly the technology change will occur.

I think about the shift from slide rule to calculator, that happened in less than one year…or the shift from mechanical watches to quartz watches…. that happened in a very short time.

Moab,

Great chart and I like some of the stuff on "But it is what it is"'s blog . . .

Keeping that in mind, my chart of $CPC's EMA(20) shows a tick up from .95 to .96 today . . . maybe the top isn't tomorrow? ;-)

Gad: I used a slide ruler in high school, and an HP45 first year of college. You are making me feel old.

I think you will find better auto deals down the road. Thinking of an escalade myself to replace a Sub. Cheaper just to feed the Sub and enjoy my position in steel ingots. If you bite look for displacement on demand. One of the guys I used to work aside when I was an engineer at GM Kokomo, is (or was, who's still there?) the lead designer of DOD.

Not so sure I want to be a GM or for that matter US car maker bag holder when the parent goes under. Resale approaches zero.

Rapidy of change? If GM were a bowl of jello when I was there, you could whack one side and not see the other side jiggle for over a year.

You will see gas rationing too, so a nice TuD Pickup with aux fuel tank is more play. Another play will be to buy a Class A Motorhome as a residence and never move it.

Commodities:
Bearish as well as bullish view
http://tinyurl.com/56qy9n

"As I think about gas powered cars and new technology to fuel vehicles it makes me wonder how rapidly the technology change will occur."

Remember an announcement laast week about carmakers severely limiting or quitting lease altogether? I can't get rid of feeling it's a part of preparation for re-facing of the fleet. When(ever) it happens, cars based on old fuel will become unsellable, and dropping lease signals their unwillingness to own that fleet as it comes out of lease, while happy customers jump to new super duper electric-hydrogen-nuclear-solar-wind-tide-good thoughts powered cars.

IF that's the underlying reason, then stopping it now means they see significant change possible within 3-4 years.

Dogging the Aussie like Soros breaking the pound.

"As I think about gas powered cars and new technology to fuel vehicles it makes me wonder how rapidly the technology change will occur."

It's gonna' be a long time. It's a helluva lot easier and cheaper to put 300 million watches on wrists than it is cars on the road. The scalability, infrastructure issues, not to mention resource scarcity issues (Look into the rare earth element scarcity and current Nickel/Cadmium battery technology). Nevermind if Maxwell is correct. You might be using your new Escalade as a spare room or outhouse

How does this affect the oil/airline trade? Negatively I think.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/2515292/Airlines-to-cut-60m-seats-for-Christmas.html

Nemo,

You might be right about retooling, but I think that a new car power source might also be more like what visi calc did for the PC, than an entire new retooling for the entire automobile.

And Vadym, you are right, that is why I do not want to be caught holding new cars when the change comes, whether it is a different power source, gas rationing or something weird like 15$ gal gas…as a “store of value” right now new cars could be poor, unless it is a Prius. Never though of the car leasing thing.

Still hoping for some links to bonds and how they inter-relate to capital markets and especially stock and commodity prices.

Remarkable how quickly EUR/USD has weakened following Trichet's dovish rhetoric today on declining Eurozone conditions. The pair is at 1.523 as I write. Hence $USD is rising and pressuring POG downwards.

I wonder if this will give the FED enough wiggle room for a surprise rate cut, as hypothesized here: http://www.safehaven.com/article-10925.htm

Lower rates would surely provide the rally the FED so desires leading into the election, setting the stage for subsequent plunge, which can be blamed on the new democratic administration.

Vadym,

That's an interesting idea. I am guessing though the reluctance to lease cars is more likely reflective of the absence of credit availability combined with a healthy paranoia regarding residual values in the face of economic depression type scenarios than preparation for a new technology.
I wouldn't mind running my car on pressurized water, compressed waffle batter or even some kind of methane-recycler necessitating frequent trips to Chipotle Grill. I just don't see it happening anytime soon.

FYI, do you guys know that some 80 percent of those making less than 25K actually own cars and still have them on the road? Astounding fact, and one that will, no doubt, change.

The technology to reduce gasoline consumption for drivers by at least 50% is out there, proven over many years, and doesn't require plugging-in, or pouring questionable baking products into your tank. 6 years ago my parents bought a Toyota Hybrid. They loved it. Never required plugging anything in ever. They filled up about once a month. For a sedan-type car there was NO driving performance issues - it drives like a charm, good for short or long trips.

Nows here's the kicker, about one month ago when gas reached it's peak, my mother received a frantic call from the Toyota dealer telling her he needed to buy her car desperately as the dealership was being flooded with customers wanting anything Hybrid. After some haggling, she received a trade-in at over 60% of their purchase price of 6 years ago, a $1500 reduction on a new model from Toyota, and the government would kick in another $4500 for buying a fuel-efficient car. Amazing deal. Furthermore the car is a beaut!

08-08-08 any bets on whether the SSEC closes positive today? i think it will, if only because the average investor in china would sacrifice personal gain/take a loss to see that happen...but then there'd be so much money riding on a positive close that the opposite bet almost has to win, right...LOL

Oh, and I remember studying Toyota Stock(TM) on the NYSE at the time my parents bought the car 6 years ago, thinking "gosh, they've got a good product here". At the time it was trading at $42. I didn't bite. Needless to say, I'm kicking myself since it smartly ran up to over $100 over the next few years. Shades of my Google assesment at IPO-time: "WTF! $80, I mean it's an amazing technology but plzzzz.". Groan.

The US dollar is on a tear. Gold is in the same price range in the past year when USD was at 75. However, like Bill has said, there will be a time when USD and gold rally side by side. It has happened before, and there could be a lot of surprised people when it happens again.

Gademsky:

Even the Prius might be a problem. The rare earth metal used in their Nickel Cadmium batteries, of which I've forgotten the name-85% is sourced from China. As a matter of fact, someone here cited the article in Resource Investor last week. Anyway, China has talked about ending exports. There go the Nickel Cadmium batteries for future Prius. Better hope the lithium's come along quick.

Beyond that, a friend of mine is a senior partner at the Monitor Group and comes out of a manufacturing background. He currently is in their Scenario Planning practice, much of which focuses on energy/alternative energy issues. Scaling is a huge problem especially given the nascency of technologies and the acuteness of the current situation.

Nemo - Today's Prius doesn't use nicad but Ni-Hi (nickel metal hydride) batteries. The rare earth concerned is lanthanum. A good review of the issues is: http://tinyurl.com/65zgr2

Toyota and Honda have concluded that the new lithium chemistry will not be useable in hybrid batteries until 2012.

"preparation for re-facing of the fleet"

Vad: I agree in principal, but you now suffer from my biggest hinderance.

Seeing the news or the tech, concluding that's obvious, and underestimating the effective time frame by years.

Same comments, biotech.

I no longer fix exhaust systems, raining rust in my eyes, no matter the cost. I will never again invest in any Biotech company, with the exception of DNA, now consumed. I will never again invest in any company awaiting FDA approval or approval from any other Govt agency.
Suicide has a lot of options. Many are not successful. I dated a Psych Nurse 10 years, and I know most attempts are not successful. I wish they were. Many companies try the same tactics. Just look at WFMI. Somebody will probably buy them even though their suicide attempt has garnered attention. I shop there, I hope they survive! They just need a management team who is not clueless. IMHO.

shark,

I am not deeply knowleadgeable in these things so take my view with gran of salt (I do). They still are willing to finance cars, they just don't want to lease them out. Now, they used to push lease hard, and from everything I know from negotiating lease on all my cars and wife's over last 12 years, they squeeze more out of it than from outright sale. So, to me it feels like it's not credit problem, it's a problem of owning used car in a few years that makes them move away from lease. You mentioned concern about residual value which is essentially the same problem - if new technologies start kicking in lease becomes a very questionable proposition for them.

I am not saying that in 4 years fleet will be re-tooled, obviously it's a much longer process. But the effect of the change will be felt strongly at the front end of car-selling industry, in dealerships. What I mean is, a lot of cars will be running for a long while by those who simply drive for many years without changing them often; however every new sale will become a subject of new attitude (give me greener, give me good economy or new technology, keep that gas0guzzling crap, thank you very much), and that's what they are concerned about.

Again... just a view from sideline, and not very well informed. Too bad if lease goes the way of dodo, I like the deal.

Vad Graifer

I'm gonna call you out.

Your advice is amateurish.

Although I'm not a published author,

I have invested the many years of research.

I have my wealth at stake.

I don't take the time to publish my studies.

You can laugh and ignore, but I wasn't born yesterday and I smell a rat.

How about I do it my way and you do it yours.
Isn't that the market anyway.

When you post something of value, I will praise.
Not, same. True give-and-take is my philosophy.

If you want a book, I'll give you a book detailing the next 5 years.

I will score all of the GURUS and hope I have two nickels to rub together.

Have to caveat.. as long as my current employer does not object...

As far as my own busines, I can do whatever I want.

Academics are one thing.

I live off my account and don't take ant BS from anyone.

Not sure what that is about... I do it my way for the last 12 years and trade for a living - day in day out. He who no likey my advice no takie it - simple as that. That's what makes the market, everyone has their own approach. I see no reason to turn it into confrontation - we exchange opinions here.

gademsky - Compare ^DJI to TBT in an overlay chart and tell me what you discover about how money normally flows...

Then you better respect my opinions. The last thing you need a score keeper with an active keyboard, and the same for me. This game ain't easy. I will exchnge whatever is necessary to turn a profit until Bill turns me off. This is now hardball. I live and die this every day, while I have few precious more days to do so. I suppose the call is where is my added value... you will get what I have. And believe me it's the best I can muster with all my resources. I've had a very rough time, and I'm not letting any academics pollute myt mind any longer. My father is a retired professor of finance in the CA College System. I've seen enough and I've tolerated enough BS for a lifetime. Time to put up or shut up. Me, as well.

Well that was odd, Aurator. More "edge talk" here?

I'm gonna try to read, digest, and not comment. You guys have a momentum here, that I am not part of. I do hope it works for you, as I wish everyone prosperity in these difficult markets.

Nice bridge... MAc!

I think my views are now too radical, and may best be expressed elsewhere. I tried, but was addicted. I really like you guys!

However my new data is so bearish, I no longer want to be swayed by any remote optimism.

I have a tremendous disrespect for authority, of any kind. I apologize for that. Not that there is any near term hope of reversing that. And I'm sorry if that is a negative.

I was force fed crap for so many years, I just can't do otherwise.
My last relationship was with a GF whose mother was dying from ALZ, and still is, for 15 years. That was rough, and still is.
I has a step father who literally watched me die through this process. He has been excommunicated. I take no BS from anyone.

I don't wantany sympathy, but I want you to understane paretially why I take no BS from anyone, and reject holier than though opinions.

Let me be clear Bill is not one of these or I would not be in his living room.

Everybody has a past and an opinion. I've shared a sliver of mine. Most don't. And there's far more.

I post for no other reason than to learn and to help. I occasionally do see things that I see as so wrong, that I must spreak. Thus, today's comment on stop losses. That's a game for losers who have not been smacked back to the stone age employing the philosophy after fully educated study, like me.

You better haver a good filter. If I can't pass the mustard, fine with me. I'm gonna tell it like I see it with no unterior motives.

Good luck all! (and if I'm banned. adios.)

Aurator,

You are not bigger than this community, and you are not going to start "calling people out."

Vad Graifer is an experienced trader with valid opinions and he--like everyone else--is welcomed when he posts his opinions here. I believe most folks see the value of this community as a discourse, not who is RIGHT or WRONG in any one person's opinions. And your personal attacks, calling someone "Ameteurish," add zero value.

In the law, if you have the facts on your side you pound the facts. If you have the law on your side, you pound the law. If neither are on your side, you pound the table.

Stop pounding the table and offer your opinions in a civil manner.

What is NOT appreciated here is uncivil discussion. You live in Austin, Texas, one of the best and most liberal (understanding) cities in America.

And I can't type very well if I don't take my time because my vision is somewhat impaired. I apologise for that. D

Austin is only liberal in the core county (Travis) and beyond that all is different.

I live in williamson county where spitting on the sidewalk or driving 10 over will get you hand cuffed and a stay at the Georgetown hilton. I live in fear of the police. And I sleep well.

Sorry BP, if I was over the top. I reserve the right to call out anyone, except Bill, cuz it's his blog.

My father in in Socal and the pegged the RE boom and timed only a few months late.

My Mother is still in the midwest, and is facing a depression.

I know what is going on. And I don't like any of it.

I'm sorry and apologise personally to Blowout Preventer, but I gotta call them like I see them.

I'm not an idiot and hold an MBA from Florida tech, major in Finance. If anyone with a better degree wants to piss into my pant cuffs, please do. Whip it out Vad.

Data today is, indeed, very bearish. Nevertheless, I feel there is some value in these markets. The last couple of weeks I have been pouring over balance sheets - trying to find companies with good fundamentals. There are a ton of them. Companies with good Equity/Asset ratios, profitable, and reasonable P/E ratios. I've noticed they are moving up, often against even the daily markets, against the grain. I think we need to keep the focus: Buy good companies at oversold conditions when the public interest begins to improve and sell when the condition reverses. Aurator, your input in this community effort is much appreciated and I hope you continue to not only read but write and I encourage you to continue your research and let us know of your discoveries.

Let's just focus on ideas and market observations and we'll keep this the place we all know and enjoy. I got off topic yesterday with politics, Bill called me out, and we all moved along. God knows we're all susceptible.

So, how about this hot Texas weather? How hot?

Today I saw a coyote chasing a chapparall -- and they were both walking.

So I anticipate, for PR, Bill will no longer want the truth or "real every day" posters trying to contribute without meeting the standard. "Well I wouldn't want THAT view at my coctail party."

After all, "Qualified Investors" are what we want here. Gimme me 6 mos.

So I stand down until invited back. I live in the real world, and I know what really goes on. It's a shame. And I take no BS from anyone, any more.

I have the utmost respect for Bill and always will.

[Bill Cara note: Aurator, you are free to say what you want, but, with respect to your comments about wanting only "Qualified Investors" or not wanting "real every day" persons to join the Discourse, please don't attribute motives to me. My standards relate mostly to civility and, regrettably, yours becomes diminished late at night. We both understand the reasons why because you told me so. Others here don't understand those personal circumstances, but many of them also don't appreciate your late night ramblings, so they skip over them. That's real life too. As you know, I want you to continue here, speak your "real world" mind, etc, but to be respectful of others. I ask nothing more.

As a professional, my advisory services will soon be available to accounts as low as $50,000, so the "Qualified Investor" inference is inaccurate and misleading. Also, as a free blogger, I anticipate a change in the new web platform will allow anybody to pre-screen certain commenters. You can't get more "real world" than that.]

Each has his own style, but sitting in cash during gap bounce bites. It happened to me on my first few trades. Normal market - stop limit good idea, volatile market like this could cost you money like Aurator says. There were plenty of times the last two months where if my stop limit were within 6% under the closing price I would have been kicked out because of gaps down and then immediate recovery. It happened to sharkie with his C short today. I don't see how this market could be traded with a tight stop limit. Yes, I bought the wrong stuff at the wrong time and that didn't help either. I rode them down too far, but then back up into green. I was ahead with profit until WFMI placed a burning bag on my front steps. Remember, I'm just a blind squirrel learning how to jump from tree to tree w/o hitting the ground. I'm very familiar with interpreting dynamic data streams, charts and accoutrement's, but not stock specific.

IMO a real gesture of regret not yet expressed should be offered. Aurator - these guys can be stubborn to deal with and love to answer questions with questions, but they have no more right here than you or I. Do what you think you must, but I for one would much prefer if you stayed. I'm not the only one, and you know that.

Another heads-up to everyone:

http://tinyurl.com/5gvkr3

And a little perspective that I find helpful:

In my opinion, this planet is so F*&^ed-up because it is supposed to be... I like to believe that the master plan requires this environment in order to teach very specific spiritual lessons... a cosmic classroom if you will. I like to believe that we chose to incarnate here at this time and in the midst of this chaos in order take advantage of this classroom to learn those specific spiritual lessons. In this way, I am able to relase a tremendous amount of anger and resentment that would otherwise be directed in destructive ways... either toward myself or toward others.
Perhaps this is a meditation in self delusion, but I literally would not be here today had I not come to this very personal spiritual interpretation many years ago.

Aurator, I view the knowledge I've obtained as a challenge... do I allow it to destroy that which is good and honorable within me or do I embrace it as part of the experience of life and work to improve myself and the lives of those around me (to the best of my ability given the circumstances). I percieve anger and self-destruction as easy while love and compassion, the essence of life, are difficult; the latter requires that I constantly grow and evolve.

Vadym Graifer,

When it comes to putting cars on the road (that people could afford to drive), I don't think the problem is technology. It is a vacuum of leadership, both in business and technology.

In World War II when petroleum was desperately scarce for civilian use, electric delivery trucks took over a large part of the distribution of goods in cities all over the US. They were running on old-fashioned lead-acid batteries.

Out in the oceans, submarines FROM ALL SIDES of the conflict, ran on diesel when they were able to suck air through a snorkel and on electric motors powered by lead-acid batteries when it was too dangerous to send up a snorkel.

When Erwin Rommel took his tank divisions across North Africa in WW-II, he was running on diesel fuel synthesized from coal. The fuel worked just fine. The engines worked just fine.

He was driven back -- ultimately -- because the US finally got into the war and America's industrial base was the tipping point. But there was nothing wrong with that hardware powered by diesel synthesized from coal.

Back in the '70's I ran into a guy in Mendocino County, California, who was powering a little pickup truck with the methane produced by droppings gathered from his chicken coop and the chicken coops of his neighbors. The vehicle's range wasn't every encouraging and it smelled bad.

A few years ago, a little further south in the Wine Country of Northern California, I ran into a little group of innovators who were making diesel fuel from fat gathered from restaurants.

This was more encouraging. With one exception, the vegetable fat-based diesel ran in an unmodified diesel engine, just as if it came from a fuel pump. The one difference was that it seems that the fat-based diesel either had no carbon in it at all or so little that it was impossible to find.

They kept tearing down the diesel engines to look for carbon build-up and never could find any. So, it might be that vegetable fat-based diesel could add, say, an extra 500,000 miles to the life of your properly maintained diesel engine. (I can't quite picture car dealers being enthusiastic about that. But it suits me just fine.)

Oh, one other thing. Your car smells like French fries. (I like French fries. I could live with that.)

REG CROWDER

ALOHA !!

Just a note on the FDIC ... Many people erroneously believe that the FDIC will insure deposits of $100,000 or less. There are some exceptions that are not widely known. Your bank may advertise it is insured but if bank employees or managers engage in fraudulent activities deemed fraudulent not by law but by the FDIC then all accounts can become uninsured. The FDIC publishes a list of such banks at their website. Under the O'Dench Doctrine fraud is grounds for disqualifying deposits of FDIC insurance.

From the FDIC website ... Is your bank listed here?

READ ON:
FDIC Enforcement Decisions and Orders
ED&O Home | Search Form | Text Search | ED&O Help | Other Regulators

Recent Enforcement Decisions

FINAL ORDERS ISSUED PURSUANT TO SECTION 8(a), 12 U.S.C. § 1818(a)
Voluntary Termination of Insurance Status

MashreqBank, PSC, New York Branch; New York, New York; FDIC-08-062a; Order of Acceptance of Voluntary Termination of Insured Status; Issued 6/17/08 - PDF

FINAL ORDERS ISSUED PURSUANT TO SECTION 8(b), 12 U.S.C. § 1818(b)
Order of Restitution

Columbus Bank and Trust Company, Columbus, Georgia; FDIC-08-033b; FDIC-08-034k; Order for Restitution; Issued 6/9/08 - PDF

FINAL ORDERS ISSUED PURSUANT TO SECTION 8(b), 12 U.S.C. §1818(b)
Cease-and-Desist

MetroPacific Bank, Irvine, California; FDIC-08-109b; Issued 6/26/08 - PDF

Columbus Bank and Trust Company, Columbus, Georgia; FDIC-08-033b; FDIC-08-034k;
Issued 6/9/08 - PDF

BankHaven, Haven, Kansas; FDIC-08-108b; Issued 6/11/08 - PDF

Clarkston State Bank, Clarkston, Michigan; FDIC-08-056b; Issued 6/16/08 - PDF

Hastings State Bank, Hastings, Nebraska; FDIC-08-100b; Issued 6/24/08 - PDF

FINAL ORDERS ISSUED PURSUANT TO SECTION 8(e), 12 U.S.C. § 1818(e)
Removal and Prohibition Orders

Mercantile-Safe Deposit and Trust Company, Baltimore, Maryland; FDIC-08-106e; against Thomas W. Small;
Issued 6/12/08 - PDF

Farmers State Bank, S/B, Schell City, Missouri; FDIC-07-161e; against Donis G. Duncan;
Issued 6/18/08 - PDF

Greene County Bank, Greeneville, Tennessee; FDIC-07-092e; against Steve P. Henry;
Issued 6/18/08 - PDF

Timberwood Bank, Tomah, Wisconsin; FDIC-08-101e; against Kevin A. Oliver;
Issued 6/18/08 - PDF

FINAL ORDERS ISSUED PURSUANT TO SECTION 8(i), 12 U.S.C. § 1818(i)
Civil Money Penalties

The Heights Bank, Peoria Heights, Illinois; FDIC-07-064k; Order to Pay in the amount of $9,000;
Issued 6/24/08 - PDF

Jackson County Bank, Seymour, Indiana; FDIC-07-176k; Order to Pay in the amount of $7,000.00;
Issued 6/3/08 - PDF

Sloan State Bank, Sloan, Iowa; FDIC-08-072k; Order to Pay Civil Money Penalty in the amount of $2,200.00;
Issued 6/11/08 - PDF

Columbus Bank and Trust Company, Columbus, Georgia; FDIC-08-033b; FDIC-08-034k; Order to Cease and Desist and Order to Pay in the amount of $2,400,000.00; Issued 6/9/08 - PDF

Bank of the Federated States of Micronesia, Pohnpei, Federated States of Micronesia; FDIC-08-045k; Order to Pay Civil Money Penalty in the amount of $1,200.00; Issued 6/3/08 - PDF

Premier Bank, Jefferson City, Missouri; FDIC-08-060k; Order to Pay Civil Money Penalty in the amount of $14,800.00; Issued 6/20/08 - PDF

The Bank of Madison, Madison, Nebraska; FDIC-08-097k; Order to Pay Civil Money Penalty in the amount of $1,575.00; Issued 6/11/08 - PDF

SussexBank, Franklin, New Jersey; FDIC-08-068k; Order to Pay Civil Money Penalty in the amount of $3,940.00; Issued 6/3/08 - PDF

The Union Bank, Beulah, North Dakota; FDIC-08-092k; Order to Pay Civil Money Penalty in the amount of $3,850.00; Issued 6/13/08 - PDF

Greene County Bank, Greenville, Tennessee; FDIC-07-091k; Order to Pay against Steve P. Henry in the amount of $25,000.00; Issued 6/18/08 - PDF

Sanderson State Bank, Sanderson, Texas; FDIC-07-234k; Order to Pay Civil Money Penalty in the amount of $14,300.00; Issued 6/20/08 - PDF

Rural American Bank – Luck, Luck, Wisconsin; FDIC-08-103k; Order to Pay Civil Money Penalty in the amount of $2,700.00; Issued 6/13/08 - PDF

Farmers & Merchants Bank, Tomah, Wisconsin; FDIC-07-115k; Order to Pay against Kevin A. Oliver in the amount of $12,500.00; Issued 6/18/08 - PDF

FINAL ORDERS ISSUED PURSUANT TO SECTION 8(p), 12 U.S.C. § 1818(p)
Terminations of Insurance

Fifth Street Bank, Las Vegas, Nevada; FDIC-08-136p; Order of Termination of Insurance;
Issued 6/30/08 - PDF

Universal Savings Bank FA, Milwaukee, Wisconsin; FDIC-08-065p; Order of Termination of Insurance;
Issued 6/26/08 - PDF

FINAL ORDERS ISSUED PURSUANT TO SECTION 38, 12 U.S.C. § 1831o Prompt Corrective Action

First Priority Bank, Bradenton, Florida; FDIC-08-127PCAP; Prompt Corrective Action Directive;
Issued 6/25/08 - PDF

TERMINATION
Order Terminating an Order to Cease and Desist

Mission Bank, Kingman, Arizona; FDIC-07-146b; Issued 6/5/08 - PDF

Kaimu looks like you were correct about today, Friday being a Gold Bashing day.Started that way so far.

[Bill Cara note: Friday is NOT a gold bashing day. The past 14 weeks (which is as far back as I am prepared to look) proves the opposite. Later I will show the data. This morning, spot gold is down to $862.70/oz because the $USD is UP to $0.7550, which is a huge move. Compared to the multi-trillion dollar daily turnover in USD, the gold market is quite insignificant. Gold does not drive the forex market.]

Vadym Graifer,
I enjoyed your post,and value your opinion

2nd
SSEC is not moving and oympic starts today
what is your opinion on CAF/FXI?
or go for FXI?

Wow. BIG moves in the Chinese markets overnight. e.g. Shanghgai B Shares index down 8+%. What's going on over there?

Sorry Bill I didnt mean every Friday I was referring to this Friday as I was watching the price movement this morning

vinod- so shanghai drops to a 52-wk LOW before the olympics...

http://tinyurl.com/5ejrv6

obviously, i would not have voted that way...

(the chinese government is still strongly influenced by the communist penchant for snuffing out traditions and superstitions...if you're a board member emeritus of the olympics planning committee you would probably have voted against a start date of 8/8/08...and if you're a board member emeritus of the treasury you're going to denounce any idea of driving the market up on a date associated with superstition-> o/w, how is one able to make the right attributions?)...in any case, my theory that they would drive it up this week had more to do with wanting to put smiles on the workers hosting the olympics and/or off-site tourist venues, and the exact opposite occurred...

but back to trading...i unloaded my remaining positions at yesterday's open (SLW/WGW/SWC), in 100% cash (which, as CP points out above, can also be an excruciating position sometimes) and still sitting on the sidelines with a coffee/Coke waiting for the next setup...i still think gold/miners is the sector to play right now..if it should turn out to be china, i'm just as happy to put my money to work there...

ALOHA!!

johnuk ... What I say is that every Friday there is an attempt to take gold down. Obviously not every Friday is a down day for POG, but there is a concerted effort to "paint the tape" on Fridays in order to set the tone for the rest of trading for Friday but also for markets opening on Mondays.

My study shows that every Friday the POG is either flat or down(usually down)from where it opened after the close of the Asia and London markets. If you go to the KITCO link I provide below for daily gold prices and check every Friday between the hours of 8am and 11am NY time it is obvious that "someone" is trying to "set the tone" for traders. How often? Out of 31 Fridays this year there was only 6 where there was actually a gain, and a slight gain at that between 8am and 11am. Thats 83% of the time the POG goes flat or down(usually down) at the NY market open and morning sessions. That seems an excessively high ratio or is it just a fluke? That's how the FED operates ... they influence traders ... they paint the tape.

Obviously there are times when they fail, but evidence exists that traders are not just trading against each other. There is either open market "guidance" or outright "false data" that influence market directions.

Yes Bill is right in that the currency markets are far larger than the gold markets, but it is obvious to me there is an agenda at the US FED and US Treasury to make the US Peso and its debt markets a more attractive "safe harbor" that a Euro or gold. It boils down to the "C" word ... Fiat money cannot afford to lose "confidence".

I wrote an article a couple years ago where I copied the actual US FED meeting minutes, complete with dialog where they were openly plotting to move the US Dollar up. This was going back to the 1970s when then Fed Chairman Burns was in charge and Paul Volker was just a governor. Yet those guys discussed ways to move the US Dollar up on currency markets during a phone conference with Volker in attendance. Back then there was much more transparency and US FED meeting minutes read like a movie script. Now all we get are canned statements from closed-door meetings. Are we to assume the practice of manipulating currency markets or any market by central banks has stopped? NO ... plenty of evidence of that yesterday. The ECB caved into EU exporters and US FED demands not to raise. Yes Bill is right Forex traders take that signal and run with it until the next US Bank debacle. More important the rise in the US Peso is a market move, since none of the fundamentals for the US economy or its money have changed. Its boiling down to which currency is safer and none of them are in the long run!

Buried away in the news of the UBS and Citi auction rate securities buy back is this:
"Lance Pan, director of investment research at Capital Advisors Group Inc., a Newton firm that is advising clients on how to deal with auction-rate securities, said, "We view the Citigroup settlement as a major turning point in the [auction-rate] market development, as it sets a precedent." He added, "We are happy to see the dealers beginning to step up to the plate." The firm estimates that nationally, some $210 billion is still trapped in auction-rate securities."END

The entire LTCM debalce back in the 1980s cost $150bilUSD. Are the banks like UBS, Citi, Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley planning to pay back all that $210bil trapped in auction rate securities? There is no mention of that, but my guess is that the US TAXPAYER will play some role in cleaning that mess up also! That's just measly old "auction rate securities". You don't hear much about the AltA and other credit/rate sensitive derivative time bombs lurking in the background any more, even though their value is "quadrillion" now. Is that good for the US Peso?

Then there is FNM and FRE ... debt laden securities that now hardly even pay a dividend(5 cents)! What will the foreigners and pension funds think about that? Is that good for the US Peso?

KITCO DAILY POG CHARTS
Link: http://tinyurl.com/2uyamo
(Friday's are the green line)

Hey Bill,
"The market is like the weather in many places—wait 24 hours and it’s changed." lol Truer words have never been said! The volatility we've experienced the last couple of months has been nuts. I feel your pain too, clients worry a LOT about short-term market volatility regardless of the type of advice you're giving and they believe every headline they read (good and bad).

Great info here, I don't know how you manage to pull together so much market data to post every day but it's been a great resource.

Cheers,
Odd Lot
http://www.Money-and-Investing.com