I, for one, don’t buy the hype I witnessed (Monday) on Financial Entertainment Television. That was a reality show episode where the Street team was falling all over themselves in hysterics. On Bloomberg, there was even one young woman, who I cannot fathom carried an ounce of credibility in any boardroom that matters outside of Wall Street, absolutely gushing, “This is such a good news day. Everything is good.” …I am embarrassed for Bloomberg.

Maybe you recall the movie.

”Guido (Roberto Benigni), a clever Jewish-Italian waiter, successfully courts Dora (Nicoletta Braschi), a beautiful local woman. His life, however, is turned upside down a few years later when he, Dora, and their young son, Giosué (Giorgio Cantarini), are sent to a Nazi concentration camp. Refusing to give up hope, Guido tries to protect his son's innocence by pretending that their imprisonment is just an elaborate game, with the grand prize being a tank.”

It is time to face the reality: this is a Bear market and the US, European and Japanese economies are in Stagflation. Our wealth, not our innocence, needs protection.

This week there were only two sectors that “popped” with significant moves to the upside. That can be explained by the realization the Fed was backing Wall Street by putting up billions of dollars of the People’s capital, surely a defeat for fiat currency if we have ever seen one. For a couple days, at the start of the week, commodity prices soared. But by week’s end, the reality of Bears and stagflating economies had set in.

On Friday, everything came crashing down. The US equity market indexes dropped an average -1.0%. Commodities ($CRB -1.4%), Crude Oil ($WTIC -1.8%), Precious Metals ($GOLD -1.8%, $SILVER -3.3%) and Base Metals ($COPPER -1.1%) all fell on Friday. Yields on US Treasuries also dropped as liquidity withdrawals hit the equity and commodity markets.

Apparently there will be no tank for Giosué; but you knew that already.

If you paid close attention to the wonderful editorial of Don Coxe this week, you can almost hear the clowns crying. The jig of Wall Street is over and done. The music has stopped.

Sure, the handful of people who run these banks and broker-dealers can blame anyone and everyone; and the Friend they sent to Washington, Henry Paulson, can speak for a lame duck Administration as these bankers try to take control of the People’s treasury, but I don’t think either Congress or the People are listening.

In fact Congress now is demanding records and may soon commence criminal action on several fronts. The People who have lost in the aggregate unimaginable trillions have started class-action lawsuits.

Life may not always be beautiful, but it sure is interesting.

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Global Economics Review

The US economy probably went recessive in December. The weight of the evidence, ie, the economic data, has been piling up and can no longer be denied.

Here are the key US economic reports and the Econoday analysis from last week.

US Existing Home Sales for February

US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey for March

US Durable Goods Orders for February

US New Home Sales for February

Final revision to 4Q US GDP and GDP Price Index

US weekly report of New Unemployment Claims

US Personal Income vs Spending data for February

US Consumer Sentiment Survey of U Michigan for March

So much for last week. Let’s look ahead.

Here is next week’s economic calendar:

US Economic Calendar.

US Motor Vehicle Sales Report for March

US Manufacturing Conditions Report of the ISM for March

US Construction Spending for February

US Corporate Layoffs Announced in March

The ADP US National Employment Report for March

US Durable and Non-Durable Factory Orders Data for February

US Non-Manufacturing Business Survey for March

US Dept of Labor Jobs Report for March

The economic issues that Americans are struggling with are now global in scope.

…the economies of Europe and Japan are almost as bad off as the US and are worsening week by week. I fully expect these economies to go into recession as well, which means that significantly more than 50 pct of the global economy will be in recession at the same time.

The bad news gets worse because, as strong as the growth is in the emerging BRIC economies (Brazil, Russia, India and China), these markets are not unaffected by the others. I expect serious declines in the BRIC economic growth rates, and significant increases in their inflation rates, this year.

Weekly International Economic Report .

As I say, positive economic news is now infrequent, and the same is happening around the world.

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Industry and Cara 100 “Impulse” Review

“Jock” is on sabbatical for a few weeks, visiting with his family the Renaissance city of Florence Italy.

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US Equity Markets Review

DJIA ino.com chart

DJIA stockcharts.com chart

For this post-holiday week, 20 of the Dow 30 stocks were up, 10 down.

But this week was different than the past couple in that there was a lot of selling on Friday, the worst of it being Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Financial (XLF) sectors and the semi-conductor industry. Without Energy and Basic Material, this week would have been a clear disaster for the Bulls, but even they must fear the fall-out of such high commodity prices.

By the end of the week, the DJIA and S&P 500 stocks were down -1.07% and -1.17% respectively.

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NASDAQ Composite ino.com chart

NASDAQ Composite stockcharts.com chart

The Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 gained +0.14% and +0.26% respectively, but even these indexes sold down on Friday, -0.86% and -1.33% respectively.

As I say, “Here is the list of the ten highest-weighted non-financial stocks in the Nasdaq Composite. Put them in a watchlist (see Google Finance Portfolio) and watch them like a hawk:
AAPL MSFT GOOG QCOM RIMM CSCO INTC ORCL GILD EBAY” I said that the Techs would lead the market one way or the other.

Daily RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

Weekly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

Monthly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

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The US equity market Sector ETF Summary

This week SPY futures dropped -0.39% from 132.08 to 131.56 even though the S&P 500 dropped -1.17% from 1329.5 to 1315.2. That differential might be setting up a small rally from an over-sold position on Monday. We’ll have to watch Asia-Pacific and Europe in the early hours.

Here’s the SPY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

SPY Monthly data:

SPY Weekly data:

SPY Daily data:

The tables I now show are for eleven GICS Sector Index Funds (ETF’s), including two for Technology (XLK and SMH), for a total of ten GICS sectors. They cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
XLB	40.29	-0.18	-0.44%	5.20%	-2.52%	-4.71%	-2.45%	-4.07%	-4.34%	6.90%
XLE	73.53	-0.19	-0.26%	3.84%	-3.29%	-6.60%	-7.51%	-8.44%	-1.88%	21.06%
XLP	27.90	0.02	0.07%	1.01%	1.82%	0.90%	-1.73%	-3.89%	-0.14%	5.56%
XLI	36.84	-0.08	-0.22%	0.57%	0.49%	-1.15%	-4.34%	-6.38%	-10.15%	3.48%
XLU	37.63	-0.45	-1.18%	0.48%	-1.67%	-2.89%	-10.60%	-12.33%	-5.76%	-5.64%
IYZ	23.07	-0.21	-0.90%	0.13%	1.76%	-5.41%	-20.91%	-22.71%	-31.85%	-25.15%
XLK	22.41	-0.07	-0.31%	0.09%	0.81%	-0.88%	-14.20%	-16.78%	-17.00%	-3.98%
IYH	62.85	-0.41	-0.65%	-0.38%	0.19%	-5.53%	-10.34%	-11.79%	-11.22%	-5.77%
SPY	131.56	-1.22	-0.92%	-0.39%	-0.07%	-3.87%	-9.23%	-10.69%	-13.78%	-7.23%
SMH	28.53	-0.37	-1.28%	-1.93%	-2.66%	-3.12%	-9.02%	-12.57%	-25.51%	-15.49%
XLY	30.53	-0.60	-1.93%	-2.30%	-0.07%	-4.95%	-5.19%	-7.29%	-16.88%	-19.23%
XLF	24.65	-0.48	-1.91%	-6.06%	-0.24%	-7.92%	-13.08%	-14.59%	-27.92%	-30.27%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. SPY XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF XLK SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s.

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10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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Individual Sector ETF Review

This week, there were 4 sectors (5 ETF’s) above SPY and 6 below. The worst performers were IYZ, IYH and XLF. The best were XLB, XLE and XLI.

Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

A week earlier, the Energy sector (XLE) was crushed (-6.87%), just like Basic Materials (-7.33% W/W), probably because the failure of Bear Stearns and the worries over a possible MF Global failure had caused commodities to be sold. Moreover the Chicago exchanges increased their margin requirements for ag commodities, and I feel they would have done the same for energy and metals except that hedge funds would have taken their business elsewhere.

So, pending more bank failures, the market was over-sold in this area, which set up a couple days price recovery at the start of the week. However, by week’s end, traders were back to contemplating bad things happening on Wall Street, regardless of the antics of Mr. Paulson and Friends.

XLB did manage a W/W gain of 3.84% to close at 73.53.

Largely from what occurred early in the week, the $USD dropped -$1.57 this week, so I am not surprised that Crude Oil ($WTIC) gained +3.71% W/W. That should have been enough to drive the price of Exxon and Chevron much higher, but those stocks gained just +0.26% and +1.55% respectively W/W, and were not strong at all on Friday where XOM dropped -1.14%.

The winners in the energy sector this week were the stocks of the foreign oil producers and oilfield services and drilling companies: CNOOC (CEO +11.6%), Schlumberger (SLB +6.2%) and Statoil (STO +6.1%).

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
CEO	150.42	6.46	4.49%	11.63%	-8.97%	-12.19%	-10.15%	-8.89%	-9.62%	77.99%
SLB	85.66	0.28	0.33%	6.23%	0.59%	-4.49%	-14.83%	-13.30%	-18.42%	23.57%
STO	29.86	0.06	0.20%	6.19%	-3.68%	-5.33%	-4.42%	-3.68%	-11.97%	10.18%
IMO	53.05	-0.30	-0.56%	5.43%	-5.25%	-7.71%	-3.40%	-6.12%	7.04%	41.96%
PBR	100.90	-0.95	-0.93%	5.28%	-9.81%	-19.19%	-15.07%	-14.22%	33.64%	113.77%
PTR	128.03	6.30	5.18%	4.47%	-3.84%	-16.47%	-26.27%	-27.21%	-30.84%	11.52%
SU	97.80	-0.09	-0.09%	4.46%	-9.68%	-7.84%	-11.31%	-11.24%	3.15%	27.28%
ECA	74.86	-0.83	-1.10%	4.19%	-5.13%	-4.17%	7.54%	8.16%	21.03%	47.16%
TOT	73.34	-0.34	-0.46%	2.42%	-3.32%	-5.09%	-11.94%	-12.39%	-9.49%	6.07%
RIG	134.17	0.08	0.06%	2.31%	-3.68%	-6.75%	-8.07%	-8.12%	18.68%	64.89%
CVX	84.50	0.10	0.12%	1.55%	-2.92%	-5.08%	-9.59%	-10.92%	-9.70%	14.07%
XOM	85.22	-0.98	-1.14%	0.26%	-2.10%	-4.65%	-8.87%	-10.29%	-7.93%	12.78%

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Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

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Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

A week earlier, Basic Materials (XLB -7.33%) got crushed. But this week XLB gained +5.20% to 40.29.

This week, $GOLD popped $16.50, causing the leading miners like Barrick and Goldcorp to rise by +6.4% and +5.9% respectively. But the prices are still down this month, as it was only a week ago that all the goldminers were blown up as $GOLD plunged -$79.50/oz. That week, ABX plunged -20.8% and GG -16.8%.

My alert of a possible major sell-off continues in the precious metals because the banks and the Administration need the commodity prices lower if there is any hope of saving some of the big banks and brokers and a big piece of American industry like the homebuilders and the retailers. This week, all of the latter sold off sharply, so the Interventionists will try to pull something off soon.

I continue to believe that the short-term play is to trade out of gold and goldstocks for the short-term and to get ready to step back in, especially some (but not all) of the juniors.

Some of the iron ore, steels and base metals companies also had a rally as the $USD dropped this week: TCK +12.0%, RIO +10.8%, MT +8.4% and TS +8.3% were leaders. In fact most were really strong until Friday when prices were mixed.

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
TCK	42.08	0.57	1.37%	12.03%	-3.26%	-0.38%	16.11%	14.32%	-11.80%	-40.56%
RIO	34.15	-0.14	-0.41%	10.77%	-0.09%	-8.25%	4.40%	2.31%	0.65%	-5.19%
MT	80.34	1.49	1.89%	8.44%	2.67%	1.36%	5.16%	3.26%	2.53%	57.53%
TS	48.83	0.41	0.85%	8.32%	-2.12%	9.36%	10.00%	9.04%	-7.20%	6.41%
PKX	118.43	-0.99	-0.83%	5.85%	-1.95%	-17.52%	-19.14%	-23.22%	-33.75%	18.76%
RTP	407.52	2.62	0.65%	5.17%	-8.67%	-12.17%	-2.90%	-3.20%	18.67%	83.65%
BHP	65.56	0.50	0.77%	4.38%	-6.36%	-13.45%	-6.89%	-8.13%	-16.59%	38.37%
AA	36.11	0.73	2.06%	4.12%	-6.13%	-7.69%	-0.06%	-2.03%	-7.69%	7.53%
VCP	28.16	-0.58	-2.02%	0.57%	-3.86%	-14.82%	-5.19%	-6.04%	-1.61%	58.38%
DOW	36.66	-0.22	-0.60%	0.49%	-2.06%	-5.27%	-5.39%	-8.56%	-14.86%	-20.91%
NUE	69.06	-0.15	-0.22%	0.15%	-4.71%	1.51%	19.13%	13.49%	16.13%	6.49%
GGB	30.56	-0.30	-0.97%	0.10%	-8.34%	-9.61%	6.48%	3.95%	16.55%	75.23%

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Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
ABB	26.71	0.33	1.25%	10.33%	2.30%	3.61%	-6.74%	-8.31%	1.83%	57.67%
FLR	140.35	1.96	1.42%	7.03%	-0.20%	-1.49%	-2.80%	-4.04%	-2.52%	56.33%
FDX	91.27	-0.45	-0.49%	4.90%	4.82%	2.33%	5.93%	0.72%	-12.87%	-15.23%
CAT	77.09	0.06	0.08%	4.37%	1.88%	3.63%	9.15%	5.37%	-1.71%	16.38%
HON	55.85	0.85	1.55%	2.87%	-1.50%	-5.63%	-6.76%	-8.74%	-6.09%	21.33%
TXT	54.62	0.37	0.68%	1.98%	0.81%	-2.25%	-18.25%	-23.74%	-12.20%	22.27%
UPS	72.26	-0.57	-0.78%	0.84%	2.16%	0.71%	4.48%	0.98%	-3.78%	2.64%
MMM	77.95	0.09	0.12%	-0.04%	-1.43%	-2.32%	-5.76%	-8.39%	-16.70%	2.06%
UTX	68.55	-0.86	-1.24%	-0.67%	0.06%	-5.02%	-8.86%	-10.82%	-14.82%	4.86%
BA	73.47	-0.75	-1.01%	-1.78%	-0.96%	-13.36%	-15.18%	-16.75%	-30.02%	-17.86%
ERJ	39.27	-0.69	-1.73%	-1.82%	-6.03%	-14.44%	-12.98%	-15.00%	-10.59%	-10.95%
GE	36.61	-0.22	-0.60%	-2.35%	6.89%	8.15%	-0.41%	-1.96%	-11.57%	2.98%

XLI (Industrials) gained +0.57% this week to close at 36.84.

A week ago, General (Electric) had been up a monstrous +9.5%, so this week’s loss of -2.4% was nothing much.
For the same reason, I discount the fact that ABB jumped +10.3% and FLR +7.0% because a week ago FLR (-6.8%) and ABB (-7.3%) were crushed.

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Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) finally came back to earth as commodity prices soared. XLY lost -2.30% to close at 30.53.

A week ago I wrote that the Cara 100 winners BBBY (+9.1%) and BC (+10.1%) had been sent on moonshots. This week they came back to earth: BBBY (-6.6%, including -3.4% on Friday) and BC (-7.4% W/W) got hit.

A week ago, I wrote: “The price of Crude Oil collapsed -$6.90/bbbl this week, so the Consumer Discretionary sector was greatly helped.” This week, it was just the opposite.

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
EBAY	30.22	-0.52	-1.69%	5.66%	13.18%	10.82%	-6.99%	-10.54%	-22.55%	-8.73%
TM	103.79	1.53	1.50%	0.61%	-1.15%	-6.13%	-2.51%	-2.64%	-11.18%	-19.46%
GOL	16.10	-0.50	-3.01%	-0.19%	5.92%	-9.85%	-32.89%	-36.39%	-32.92%	-39.27%
NKE	65.86	-0.12	-0.18%	-2.10%	7.91%	6.16%	4.08%	2.41%	12.27%	25.30%
BDK	65.47	-0.42	-0.64%	-2.53%	-1.13%	-7.28%	-6.38%	-5.80%	-21.40%	-19.86%
DIS	31.00	-0.38	-1.21%	-2.82%	-1.05%	-4.73%	-2.64%	-4.38%	-9.86%	-9.44%
CCL	39.70	-1.07	-2.62%	-2.91%	1.20%	-2.22%	-9.07%	-11.01%	-18.03%	-14.49%
WHR	85.40	-0.09	-0.11%	-3.77%	0.49%	-5.51%	6.91%	5.71%	-4.15%	1.22%
TGT	49.69	-1.29	-2.53%	-5.08%	-1.72%	-7.67%	0.36%	-2.07%	-21.83%	-17.11%
BBBY	29.11	-1.01	-3.35%	-6.58%	1.96%	-0.95%	2.64%	0.00%	-14.68%	-26.27%
BC	16.12	-0.68	-4.05%	-7.41%	1.90%	-5.51%	-4.73%	-8.15%	-29.48%	-48.78%
JCP	37.48	-3.04	-7.50%	-11.02%	-5.54%	-21.46%	-10.01%	-14.37%	-40.86%	-53.50%

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Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
BUD	48.00	0.01	0.02%	4.30%	3.07%	-0.41%	-7.03%	-9.18%	-3.98%	-3.60%
DEO	82.12	-1.18	-1.42%	2.19%	-0.51%	-2.95%	-3.46%	-4.74%	-6.39%	3.63%
WAG	37.43	0.17	0.46%	1.77%	2.46%	0.78%	0.24%	-3.08%	-20.77%	-19.24%
PEP	71.56	0.37	0.52%	0.52%	3.35%	0.70%	-4.95%	-7.10%	-2.32%	13.79%
PG	69.44	0.03	0.04%	0.10%	3.09%	3.69%	-3.97%	-6.48%	-1.28%	10.20%
KO	60.94	-0.37	-0.60%	-0.16%	3.41%	2.49%	-0.25%	-2.14%	6.04%	27.20%
WFMI	32.48	-0.69	-2.08%	-0.52%	1.88%	-11.01%	-18.31%	-21.83%	-33.66%	-26.90%
KR	25.16	0.41	1.66%	-0.94%	0.64%	-0.04%	-1.99%	-6.71%	-11.78%	-11.25%
ABV	76.12	-1.96	-2.51%	-0.99%	-4.79%	-13.72%	5.02%	4.57%	4.09%	44.63%
WMT	52.12	-0.25	-0.48%	-2.09%	3.00%	2.80%	11.13%	8.40%	19.40%	11.75%
SBUX	17.05	-0.57	-3.23%	-2.74%	-3.29%	-8.19%	-11.70%	-15.30%	-34.92%	-45.49%
PDA	46.40	-1.69	-3.51%	-7.26%	-8.12%	-6.38%	-3.59%	-5.94%	5.67%	71.47%

This week, XLP gained +1.01% to close at 27.90.

The big beer and liquor stocks, like BUD and DEO, recovered this week.

On Friday, as the US equity market sold off sharply, XLP managed a small gain of +0.07%, the only sector to do so.

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Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYH Monthly data:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
NVS	50.96	0.17	0.33%	3.89%	5.07%	0.69%	-6.62%	-7.06%	-7.28%	-9.44%
AMGN	41.45	-0.04	-0.10%	3.34%	-12.14%	-8.96%	-11.05%	-11.92%	-26.73%	-25.61%
DNA	80.00	-0.13	-0.16%	0.93%	-1.76%	5.46%	18.69%	18.50%	2.54%	-2.50%
GSK	42.28	-0.30	-0.70%	0.69%	2.03%	-6.15%	-15.73%	-16.69%	-20.53%	-21.76%
NVO	66.73	-0.58	-0.86%	0.17%	-2.85%	-3.32%	4.59%	0.94%	-44.87%	-23.87%
BMY	21.48	0.18	0.85%	0.09%	0.33%	-6.24%	-17.80%	-20.94%	-25.47%	-22.23%
PFE	20.50	-0.06	-0.29%	-0.44%	-3.35%	-9.09%	-10.52%	-10.48%	-16.09%	-18.59%
AET	42.54	-0.71	-1.64%	-1.28%	-4.79%	-17.24%	-24.89%	-26.49%	-21.61%	-3.60%
MDT	47.86	-0.20	-0.42%	-1.38%	-0.37%	-3.82%	-3.31%	-4.70%	-15