Good Morning.

Here are your Cara 100 Ratings Changes:

Upgrades:

EXC - to Buy @ Jefferies & Co.
KSS - to Overweight @ JP Morgan

-------------------------------------------------

Other Stocks of Interest:

AU - to Buy @ UBS

------------------------------------------------

Enjoy the ride.

Hmmm... Bill, fwiw, I also would have chosen hockey and beers with a good friend without a moment's regret.

Interesting that U.S. futures are holding up rather well given the carnage in Japan. But as you say the European markets seem to be holding things together.

Depending on how poorly today's ISM Mfg Index comes in (it's out at 10 a.m. EST) the U.S. markets could try to rebound a bit today. But news trumps technicals like paper beats rock.

Bill: Thanks for you comment on miners in the daily report.Have fun, reminds me of COMDEX in the 80s...:)

A year ago (at PDAC ’07) Baltic resources (BLR.V) sold for 0.40. Now it’s at 1.90. They have phosphate (fertilizer component), limestone, and a mix of metals typical of what came to be widely known (post-PDAC ’07) as McFauld’s lake.

Holders of 1 share of Baltic (BLR.V) as of this Thursday will receive in the spin-off of phosphate holdings 1.4 shares of Phoscan (FOS), and 1 share of the new Canadian Orebodies (CO).

I saw a chart of phosphate prices which makes gold look leisurely: from about $250 to $850/mt at Tampa in a little over a year.

The IPO of Canadian Orebodies will apparently be priced low, relative to other McFauld’s plays. Gord McKinnon will become CEO of Orebodies, with his dad Don McKinnon as Chairman.

Gord will sit on the board of Phoscan, as will Jim Gowans of DeBeers Canada.

I imagine that a pure play in phosphates plus a new McFauld’s participant would end up commanding more combined value than Baltic before the split.

As ever, there are no guarantees, just educated guesses...

With the number of very weak stocks swamping the strongest stocks on Friday, the downside is once again in play. That means the line of least resistance will be lower prices for the major stock market averages.

We will only turn bullish when prices have moved materially lower and our sentiment and market technical indicators reach extreme readings.

JW
http://www.2globalmarkets.com

Gee..100,000 shares of FXI @ $150.79...

that was OG buying after reading shanghai fly's take...

Bloomberg just mentioned that traders might be speculating positively on today's scheduled Fed Board of Governors meeting and that this is holding up equity futures. Seems rather peculiar to me.

Note to EEMTrader: I used to post under I_Loser in deference to Elder and his advice to never get too confident about the markets. They humble us regularly. And yes I did well on the break in the SPX late last week. I also got played like a classic loser in SKF early last week. So there you have it. In any case, I was pretty much flat by mid-morning Friday, and I'm in no hurry to buy or sell anything this morning.

SMH and XLF almost seem poised for an opening bid...

HBC (HSBC) trading up 4% on earnings...

Bill:
Re: Passing on the Clinton-Giustra event:

My experience with meeting celebrities has been that the ones I really enjoyed meeting were the unaffected ones, the ones who are "folks" -- richer and with better year-round tans, perhaps -- but people with kids and dogs and hobbies and lives besides celebrity. When I met one of the first men to walk on the moon, my first impression was that he looked tired and could probably use a few hours on a couch in front of a football game with good friends and beer. IMO, you need not regret your decision.

Hi!

Would the fed meet extraordinarilly to do nothing?

Have a good one.

I missed it somehow and can't guess: "ToG" ?

although the G part I get-- I think

Bill,
I thought you might be interested.
I have some interesting charts suggesting a change in consumption.
I created an index of ND-Consumption/Wages and it
is above a 4-decade high. This implies less discretionary spending.

See "ANALYZE ex THIS!"

onlineaces
Can you give us your thoughts please (e.g. comfort level) on BullionVault - compared to Perth Mint, for example.

Drea,

the Trade of a Generation (ToG).

It is a concept we are all thinking about.

Basically the idea is that we think that the market may present such a framework in which traders can benefit from opening long gold positions and shorting us bonds.

If such an opportunty arises, it will be a money making machine, and therefore Bill calls the possibility the Trade of a Generation.

So far most Caraistas think that the time has not come yet, but we are keeping our eyes open, and most of us are regularly posting research here to add to the confirmation of exclusion of this possible trade.

Hope this helps.

Cheers!

Wow! What a fantastic show! I was introduced to this blog through my sweetheart Yabba and, by invitation, arrived at the PDAC show yesterday. We caught up with, you, Bill as you made your rounds and were so pleased to meet you. You are a most engaging raconteur! We hope to see you again at some of the receptions over the next days.

Your stories catapulted me back into my past – early ‘80s - when investing in gold stocks was truly governed by CAVEAT EMPTOR – all caps and in bold. Armed with my newly achieved Canadian Securities Certificate, I started work with a gold mining company – which shall remain nameless (I coveted the gold plated door pulls which initials matched my own). I actually framed my certificate and hung it by my desk. This is significant because it turned out to be the only genuine item in the top floor office. Once a year the ‘president’ straight from central casting would be flown in from the UK, sobered up, dressed in flannels, a natty navy blazer and school tie and propped in front of the shareholders for the annual meeting. The Puppet-Master who lived offshore for reasons more to do with the RCMP than wily tax strategies would fly in under the radar and coach the pres on the prepared script. Funny – this didn’t deter me from buying shares. (Actually, I wish I still had them, no, actually I wish there had really been gold there – and I still had shares.)

During that time I attended a monetary show similar to this one in Atlanta. President Gerry Ford was the keynote. It was memorable because I bought my first Krugerrands there. When I got back to my booth, I discovered that I had dropped one of them on the floor of this massive hall. I frantically retraced my steps and found it in front of a table covered with gold coin chocolates. It was on the floor undetected amongst the crumpled foil discarded on the floor!

At the same convention, I was witness (only) to one of those drinking parties that you described, Bill, that mark the tribal recreation of those in the mining industry. I had been challenging the group on the fact that gold was only valuable because humans decided to make it so and then kind of create a game to play with ourselves (Yabba, I hear you). In the wee hours the gang was careening down the middle of the street – I was merely walking carefully.- when the Puppet Master decided to disgorge all the liquid gold in his stomach. He didn’t say a word or miss a step but kept walking. I was aghast lest some splash on my shoes, but perversely impressed at his complete disregard – for anything. Ahh that magical combination of archetypes to be found in the industry – the explorer and the outlaw!

I love the term Cara-istas and think you are all very fortunate to have this blog, the seasoned expertise and the open forum to lead you through the ‘mine’ field on precious metals investing.

My life now is involved with the other treasures of the Earth – those we eat, drink and breathe. I hope that on the investor criteria list there is a check mark for responsible stewardship of this precious planet and those who mine her. This seems a good place to say that Yabba and his associate represent a device that reduces toxic emissions nearly 100% and will maximize air quality and fuel efficiency in the mines. Was that too bold?

Cara 100 Update:

RY downgraded to Underperform @ BMO

Maromatics-- much appreciated! D

Hello everybody

A laundry list of ominous economic reports, continuing worries about the credit insurers, more news of mortgage-related write-downs and talk of hedge funds facing margin calls served up the perfect storm of investor anxiety last week.

Read all about this in my regular weekly blog post, highlighting some thought-provoking news items and quotes from market commentators during the past week, and briefly reviewing the week’s market action on the basis of economic statistics and a performance chart.

Here is the link to "Words from the Wise": http://tinyurl.com/ytoav8

This is another key week where all potential stock market rallies should be treated with circumspection.

adding SNDK at 23.12...

Hi, when interrogating junior precious metals company officials on their projects, keep in mind that their financing is subject to availability of credit, or expansion of their float.

minor position in UYG- 30.57...

minor position in GOOG - 465.73...

Thornburg Mortgage (TMA) more than halved today.

Yikes!

TLT down, but on low volume...no clues..
INTC/MSFT holding up well...

DUG/SMN...looking for another entry, but the prospect of a markedly lower USD has me sidelined right now..

BullH, thanks for TMA. Any other companies like it out there.

EWZ up 1.7%, looking to short.

Bill,

thank you for the text message this morning.
i came by the media room around 10 but you had not arrived yet,

i work right acorss the street from the convention centre so i was on coffee break and couldnt wait long, hopefully ill be able to introduce myself later.

---

Jeff

SiO2,

What's so unusual about (TMA) is that they are only involved in top flight credit mortgages, mostly jumbo loans with NO exposure to subprime.

When TMA is trouble, all mortgage lenders are in trouble.....IMHO.

Regards

Covered my shorts on FXP @ 88.29 and EEV @ 79.5 that held from Friday for small gains. Looking for more clarity before stepping back in either way.

All is quiet on the community front.

Mighty quiet this AM......

Are you all standing aside like I am?

I did nibble a few WMT.
Sold some WGW.

CHICAGO, March 3 (Reuters) - Bunge Ltd (BG.N: Quote, Profile, Research) on Monday said that it overstated its 2007 sales and cost of goods sold by about $7 billion, in part due to a change in computer systems, though the restatement does not affect reported profit for the world's biggest oilseeds processor.

Bunge said it determined that the errors resulted from material weaknesses in its internal control over financial reporting in 2007 and that it is correcting the problem.

I believe that is a 15% error. Regardless, it's not chump change! It's hard to believe that managers and the executive in Bunge didn't reconcile their sales records with totals before releasing the errant report.

Craig,

I'm fairly content to watch my ultra-shorts make money. I should probably book some profits here.

Am getting a bit bored though, thinking of jumping into JAV for a trade.

Regards

Premier-Roxmark intersect 254.8 g/t (7.44 oz/ton) and 60.88 g/t (1.78 oz/ton) in new zone discovered proximal to Little Long Lac Gold Mine

TORONTO, March 3 /CNW Telbec/ - Roxmark Mines Limited (TSXV - RMK) today
announced that drilling by PREMIER GOLD MINES LIMITED (TSX:PG) at the
Geraldton Project has confirmed its initial exploration model by intersecting
multiple zones with high-grade gold mineralization proximal to the
past-producing Little Long Lac Gold Mine including 254.8g/t Au (7.44 opt) over
0.3m, 60.88/t Au (1.78 opt) over 1.0m and 45.3g/t Au (1.32 opt) over 1.0m. The
Geraldton Project is being operated by Premier under an option agreement with
Roxmark...........

http://tinyurl.com/2ygzjf

craig- keeping the possibility of a sharp drop in mind, but also willing to put a few chips on the 'rotation into technology' thesis...

I have a straddle on the dow that I plan to leg in and out of the puts and calls depending on how the market moves. I'm currently waiting and watching to see if the 12150 level holds. If it does then I'll take profits on some of my puts, and I'll let my calls run for a bit. Maybe, and only maybe will I add to the calls. I'd rather be caught with not enough puts or calls, than too many calls. After watching asia I think the risk is to the downside.

financials catching a bid...half the chips off UYG at 31.29...

N - Skype not updating since 10:47

2nd, if you don't mind, what is the thinking on the UYG trade?

TIA

Thanks again, EEM:

the 10-yr T yield started ticking up noticably @ 11:15 - 11:20 AM EST, and given XLF was showing some resilience since 10:45 AM while the market drifted downward, i got into UYG @ 30.85.

looking fwd to the results of this FRB mtg, AMBAC news, etc.

craig- in a long recession, i can see SNDK going below 10...at 23 i think it's priced in a downturn->if we side-step a long recession, then 40-50 within 6 months is possible...trading will probably outperform buy-and-hold until the economic picture clears up (or we have a steep market sell-off), but the potential upside leads me to think maintaining a position in the port makes sense...

re UYG Seeking Alpha has good example @
http://tiny.pl/lbsn

SNCR, sold out my small position. I like the story, but as I think g034 said, if I invested because I like the story I would be broke by now.

SNDK: My concern is it broke support so I'm out.
No need to gamble. If it breaks back through on volume then I can always get back in.

Interesting set-up with SRS: Rising floor, flat topped triangle on daily chart if you ignore that temp. breakout in the middle which obviously couldn't be sustained and gaps down. Higher lows, sellers selling at 115 or so...if it breaks out I think it runs. More patience... I don't think it's that risky to short RE long term.

I don't know if you can tell but I'm looking for longer term swing trades and shorts. ;>)

gray- i think max wolff's reasoning is correct, thanks for the link...

For shorter term swing trade just stumbled across LDK and picked up some. Don't know the story here but don't care. The support is easily identified and is within pennies of current px.

attempting to reverse...

opening a position in MU at 7.21...

I'm taking all of my trading advice from Dennis Kneale on CNBC. Oh, and that Cuban genius, Michelle too many names. ROTFLMAO.

WPeyton- re UYG->intra-day gamble on (what will most likely turn out to be) a dead cat bounce...might want to check out the seeking alpha link posted earlier by gray->posits the uncertainty in the markets leads to emotional swings that can be played, which resonates with me as an explanation for the volatility...

LDK: Yikes! $22-$76-$26-$76-$26.....it swings alright....

Like a yo-yo.

Bottoming bond rates; as they climb, won't that hurt utilities? If so how about SDP 2x short utils, and it has a 7% yield?

SMH turning green...

olggoat, I've sent you 2 private Skype messages. Captain, Skype is working within normal operating parameters.

http://nexalogic.com/skype.html

SDP:A lot of tails...maybe decent trades. Steep moves prone to reversals leaving those tails.

small position in LDK on geck's call...

Hi!

Has anyone attended Jim Sinclair's CIGA meeting?

If so, could you please comment on what happened?

Thanks!

Good morning all,

I really enjoyed 2nd ave's touching anecdote about his early life. What we need is more interesting backround info about each other. I often wonder what you guys look like and I wonder if little thumbnail pics/images could accompany our entries.

On to the business of the day. I have a dear friend who is unfortunate to toil away his better days at Lehman Bros. I had to inform him this morning that LEH has broken support, is descending down out of it's prior trading range and did so with a daily down-gap, typically a continuation pattern. i had to inform my friend that I have placed a 12 month downside target of between 35 and 42 dollars per share. It's curious because I had told him to dump it all at 70 about a year ago but he was so mentally whipped to the firm at the time that the thought of cashing out sounded a heresy to him/her. I had to describe the price target because, like every single HBB employee, he/she doesn't know jack about technical analysis, as HBB frowns upon accurate methods of analysis. They prefer fundamental analysis which method is ABSOLUTELY, TOTALLY USELESS FOR TIMING ENTRIES AND EXITS.

My other issue today is, (and would someone please ask Rob M if there's anything under that patch or Nevada desert besides dead mobsters) involves Ben Bernanke. Ben has determined to attempt to inflate his way out of the credit crisis. He and Wall Street will attempt to do so at the expense of ordinary Americans who have worked and saved. I think during the time Bill's been at the show that the situation has worsened precipitously, and that Fed policy is sending the dollar into a kamikaze death-spiral. I am here to say that any more rate cutting borders on treason. Rate cutting in this dollar environment should be a hanging offence, and all the mishugina Wall Streeters should basically be lined up gainst a brick wall and shot for what they've done to this country and it's citizens. Greenspan should be hung from a lamp-post like that guy from romania in the late 80's. I'm sorry bill if this post sounds to ascerbic. I can only say in my defence, you should have heard what I WANTED to post....Love, Chris, your daytrading friend here in westport. By the way, the cops here in town are trying to buy tasers, so they can use them on housewives and teenagers found drinking at the beach. These cops are paid to do their jobs, and the Taser is a shortcut to effective policing. It's not fair that these greased swine are able to avoid hand to hand combat by using these torture devices, purchase at taxpayers expense.

Long live the people!

shark- always good to hear from you...just think, in 1972 it was inconceivable for political agitators to operate from the westport public library..."the times they are a-changin'..." enjoy your day, my man ;)

..at least, not from 'inside' the library...

UYG- getting no traction...off the table...

abc retrace from this morning's Dow low back to the flatline. Locked and loaded to blow below 12200, 12000, then H&S activated.

I am honored 2nd though I must admit that this is one of my more speculative picks. Usually I am looking for something a little more shall we say 'solid' to get into. But considering I have a 3% risk in this trade it can hardly hurt me to go out on a limb.

shark_attack:

You might not have the same opinion regarding protecting those who patrol the streets at night after working a shift in their boots. Speaking from experience the taser saves more injuries to both the public and officers than it inflicts.

There are always going to be bad apples in every line of work. The problem is not the tasers it's the apples.

Discl - No position in Taser International.

LDK: 1% allocation, will be out if it fails at support. Dang, I could lose $100 or so....;>)
So far....speculative....

geck- my percentage at risk is even lower, but looking at a 6-month chart i would be very surprised if volatility alone does not take it well above the current price at least once in that time frame...(how would it feel to have held down to here from 60+...maybe they're the ones capitulating today)...good luck to us both...

Did anyone here catch the 20/20 peice on passive heat radiation type devices last night?

Would beat the heck out of a tazer.

I've been shocked by New Zealand style fence chargers (capacitor discharge/7000 jueles), I think it's (Tazers) dangerous to humans, esp with heart problems.

Ooops! 7000 volts, 10 jueles.

I touched my hat to the top wire of my fencing system. I woke up on the ground and was dazed for hours. Just like the 70's....

Adding a dose of REW for long term hold. Put some DXD in the IRA.

Combo of Yen calls and call options on the VIX popped Friday nearly enough to burn out my green pixels.

Lets have a round of applause for Silver over $20.

Craig: It's Joules

One joule is the work done, or energy expended, by a force of one newton moving one meter along the direction of the force. This quantity is also denoted as a newton metre with the symbol N·m. Equal to one Watt-second.

Not to be confused with a Taser on the famuly "Jewels".

it's the volts that jolt but the mils that kill...

watch your screens....

What do you see/hear EEM?

QUENT: I always get jitery when GS moves...especially after being trashed....maybe they announce a discount rate cut..though if its too wimpy...the market could sell off

XHB has passed the Lobby level on the way down. March 19 puts -XXJOS up 64% today.

I live in a new neighborhood where DHI just built another 10 spec homes... hehe

Aurator: Thanks for the spelling.
All I know is it can knock you clean on your butt and coyotes and sheep respect it like nothing else. And people....

XLF looks to have four failed attempts to break out. It's now puncturing the lower Bollinger band. Goldman chart looksawful. If the crooks can't even do well, we are indeed in big trouble.

David Tice of Prudent Bear on Bloomberg calling for a "Whopper" recession.

market feels like it's being held up by (an overabundance of) short interest...quick spike up to clear out the crowd may be what's needed for it to continue down...

This article on the huge Afganistan mine posted yesterday:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080221/wl_sthasia_afp/afghanistanminingeconomy

Guess who has been awarded a 30 year operating contract? A Chinese company. We waste a fortune occupying the country and the Chinese exploit the resources.

Google and BIDU were relatively flat on Friday but today they are being killed.

Tice was on last week and said the same...and that he would be giving the same advice to his family.

To Mike NYC or others who have used GoldMoney:

I am wondering about the income tax treatment of gains or losses when using GoldMoney or another digital gold account. Doesn't this get kind of complicated if you use the account to make online purchases, since GoldMoney does not furnish 1099s or other tax reports? I've searched the web and not gotten any definitive answer on this. I would appreciate hearing from people who have actually dealt with this issue. I sent an e-mail to GoldMoney but got no answer, other than this statement from their web site:

From goldmoney.com:

What are the tax implications of opening a Holding with GoldMoney?

GoldMoney is not authorized to give personal accounting or any tax advice. Further, we have customers in 102 countries worldwide, thus it is impractical for us to stay abreast of the legislation in all of these countries. Consequently, our User Agreement states that each user is responsible for complying with the regulations, if any, from the country in which he/she accesses GoldMoney.

LOL! Wouldn't they want to spike it UP to clear the shorts? They better try a bat turn....

If based in the U.S. all they have to do is report transactions of $10,000 $USD or more.

craig- are you saying any purchases of physical gold in the US go unreported as long as you keep each separate transaction under 10K (eg, two purchases of 9999 would be under the radar)?

This market is wild and choppy...worse than sailing...

Yes.

No reporting at all at my local coin shops.

2nd: to be clear, the purchases would need to be on two seperate occasions, or split between say two people.....otherwise two $9999.99 purchases in a day would be reported.

Useful IRS reporting FAQ from California Numismatic Investments
tp://tinyurl.com/penv

http://tinyurl.com/penv
Sorry. Word to the wise, intentionally breaking up a cash transaction to evade the $10,000 reporting requirement is illegal. Use a wire or check instead.

Marc Faber on CNBC. TO the point, everything's in a bubble and said the biggest one of all is LT Treasuries. Thinks GOOGs has another 30% downside and only likes South African Gold Miners.

maromatics- more support for your perspective from hulbert:

http://tinyurl.com/32jb7t

Oh, I'm not suggesting breaking the law mind you....I would *never* do that.

FXP looking to make new hod

Dave

no, i would be following the letter of the law ;)

Tasers may cause deadly arrhythmias. They are not the benign tools they are made out to be. Those trained to use them are told that they are universally humane... tell that to the growing number of dead at the hands of these well-intentioned policemen using this tool.

Maro,
Here are a few notes from JS-Toronto talk. Jim extemorized for about 45 minutes then began taking questions.
* Gold is going up for the reason that it serves the pujrposes and interests of the wealthy.
* Gold is only one component of the picture: ALL metals are going up because of demand , esp in Chindia. But Gold's particular function now will be to stop the melt-down before it gets too bad.

* China will be worlds No. 1 economy, period. India, probably number 2. US, probably #3.
* Dollar will tank to .52 or lower, but "Plan is in place" to restore it to .72-.82 trading range.
* Bargains will exist in equities sometime, but not now. This is not a time for speculation unless you are a PRO. Time to hunker down with Gold, foreign treasuries.
* Heavy % gold holdings makes sense, but most can't ride the bull because of the volatility. Find your comfort zone. Look for wild swings.
* 1650 is assured, following big battle at 1,000. 1,024 is a significant number on the way.
Not willing to speculate about anything above 1650, preferring to take it one step at a time thereafter. Acknowleges he may be "conservative" at 1,650.
* He recollected how absurd 1650 semmed to many when he was predicting it in an 248 environment.
*Confiscation: doesn't see it.
*Conspiracy Theories: doesn't buy it; believes it is a matter of "keen-minded" fellows taking advantage of stupid people, as per history.
* Gold Silver histoircal ratio: not a reliable indicator. Watch each individually.
* Look at the juniors and choose carefully. "When a junior gets it right, it leaps." Right means "good people and good property." Any other combination spells eventual disaster. Look at geology, frinds of owners developers, other business interests, and browse the principals extensively. Proof is in the people.
*Pressed on advisability of Perth Mint, JS could not recommend it based on opinions of those he trusts. He was not more specific, and only answered the question because asked directly from the floor mike.
*Avoid online gold banks.
* Avoid online , esp. discount brokers.

I was impressed with JS talk and genuine concern for CIGAs. He's a Cara-like guy who wants to share what he knows with those who will listen. What's the use of learning, earning and taking it to the grave with you? he offered in paraphrase.
Best Regards to you and thank you for your always useful posts.

John

I knew you would. :>)

Thanks, 2nd.

A UYG bounce makes total sense. At the time, it struck me as a completely contrarian (sp?) way to go.

bullish divergence on the FXI and EEM on the 30 min chart...check it out...

ALOHA !!

I agree with Sinclair on 95% of his points.

I have visited the Perth Mint three times this year and I find it is a first class operation with top security. I would trust them 100% so long as you have "allocated" bullion.

I believe storage at mints in "allocated" form is the best and safest. I would not own "unallocated" bullion anywhere even at the Perth Mint. When you allocate bullion at the Perth Mint you are given a list of choices for fabrication(two pages). The list includes their gold coins and bars. All the choices on the list are fabricated right there at the Perth Mint. Some of the smaller gold bars do not have serial numbers. The larger gold bars of one kilo and larger do. None of the gold coins have serial numbers. Same with the allocated silver except only the 1000oz silver bars have serial numbers. Most of the choices do not have serial numbers including all the silver coins and smaller silver bars. Only choose those that have serial numbers that can be tied to your name and account.

My criteria is like Warren Buffet's and Sinclair's ... YOU HAVE TO KNOW WHERE YOUR MONEY IS AT ALL TIMES!! With "unallocated" you get no assurance of where your money is. The same holds true for Kitco and GLD and SLV.

You also have to start thinking in terms of "supply" and where supply will go first in the scheme of bullion production and storage. I believe mints with long standing ties to mining companies that fabricate onsite are FIRST in line. The Perth Mint is first in line with Australian gold and silver miners. Look what is happening to South African supply. I would not want to be depending on any supplies coming out of Africa or South America or Russia or China. Doesn't leave a whole lot of choices except the USA, Canada and Australia. Of the three I firmly believe that Australia is the most stable with the least issues of government and enviromental meddling.

John,

Thank you very much.

Those seem to be very prudent lines.

Indeed, Sinclair seems to be a good man.

Cheers!

craig- read over your email from last friday a few more times, and after thinking things over, i'm feeling pretty comfortable right now being long technology (about 15% of the total port)...if you'd told me just three months ago i could pick up SNDK/MSFT/INTC/MU/GOOG at these prices, it would have been a stretch...now that we're here, i'm OK holding for a better exit...JMHO...(not feeling that way about much else, of course)...

SPX is positive & SSO is still down 8/10 of a percent.

Grrrrrrrrr.

fattyArbuckle...Bullish formation..look at RSI and Money Flow..good move..buy low ..sell high..

2nd - What is your bullish case behind SNDK.
I am just looking for some motivation.

Bloomberg expert talking about "increased Put selling" being a positive sign.

Since every sale has a buyer, that is pure nonsense. Why did I burn the power to even watch today?

jogyp- i have no 'bullish case' apart from the fact that there does not appear to be one...total absence of good news is usually a good time to buy...

Put Vol over the last couple days is minor compared to, say, Jan 17th - don't know why Blmbrg is mentioning it as a bullish sign.

2nd

"total absence of good news is usually a good time to buy" <--- that sounds like EXPERIENCE talking. I like that....

Where would you consider the earliest point to exit SNDK?

isaiah- would encourage you to read gray's 1140am link to seeking alpha->at some point public opinion will change, and then you sell...no idea when that will be...

2nd, Got into a few hundred 'Bank of MSFT' this afternoon at $26.93. The 52 wk low is $26.60. I'll wait for SNDK to see what it does when holders get "even" at resistance/support.

Russell 2000 closed nearly 1% lower; therefore, I don't trust this recovery off the lows today. Was it futures led?

Folks, we're just a couple of days from $1000/oz. bullion unless there's a major rate cut intervention in the Euro.

craig- let's not insult MSFT with that sector designation...

Hi all,

Could someone update me (or direct me to an update) on what type of advisory services might be available for US residents. If I recall correctly there was talk about a subscription based site (Is this the billcara2.com site?) or newsletter/alerts approach. Is all of this pending the approval of Cara Trading Advisors (Bahamas) Ltd to trade? I apologize if this has been outlined somewhere recently. Thanks!

Does anyone think the Fed will soon resort to buying long treasuries or corporate bonds to bring interest rates down, as they did in the 30's? If so, wouldn't that be the time to short bonds?

Ivonka,

Re your question in yesterday's discourse: I think it is too soon to start shorting bonds.

For more details, please refer to G034's coments in esterday's discourse, regarding this subject which I think are right on the money.

Cheers,

Moab :Bernanke testified that the govt would step in to buy treasuries if foreign goverments fled the auction.

re: your earlier question about futures..volume returned the lat 30 mins. The IWM and the Qs are the weakest of the 4, but both broke the down trendlines from yesterday on a 3 min chart...and even a small invereted H&S on the IWM...building energy to assault the rising trendline of the triangle.

If prices get rejected there on the DIA and the SPY, then a close at the days high on rising volume all meant..well just that..we go back down again. IWM has the most distance to travel to get back into that triangle.

As far as futures...take a look at the XLF and SNDK on today's chart..something is moving these..

At least we are in a trading range..easier to define failure and success..wish the chop would go away...:)

INTC moving lower on following:

DJ Intel Lowers First-Qtr Gross Margin Forecast Due To Lower NAND Flash Memory Prices

DJ Intel Lowers First-Qtr Gross Margin Forecast Due To Lower NAND Flash Memory Prices

EEMTRADER -
On govt buying LT tres - they do not have the resource to do that without severe monetisation and further USD decimation, it is a vicious cycle.

DJ Intel Had Seen 1Q Gross Margin 56% Plus Or Minus A Couple Of Points...cuts GM to 54% Plus Or Minus 1%...

*DJ Intel Backs All Other 1Q Views >INTC

2nd: They're the only ones with capital.....
A Yahoo deal could be done with cash couldn't it?
I think they may borrow, but the co. is a cash machine. WAY better than about any bank or broker, although I'm not too thrilled with INTC's news, and it likely won't be kind to SNDK either....which may give us a better add/entry for MSFT.

Bought Novagold (NG.T) and Seabridge (SEA.V) today based on their very low Enterprise Value Per Unit (EVPU) presented in the following table at RSG and on my assumption that their resources will eventually be economically mined. http://tinyurl.com/39bg9n

craig- well, i have different thoughts floating around this technology trade, many undoubtedly subconscious until they surface...on the back burner since january has been elaine garzarelli's buy signal->if we assume she was referring to fund managers (who are unable to buy in quantity on a dime), then i'm OK with a few technology picks here (keeping in mind, of course, fund mgrs need not make money, they only need to outperform their benchmark)...

occam_razor..thank you..just sharing what bernanke testified...not saying I know he will do it...:)

http://tinyurl.com/23vmlo

The Federal Reserve's rescue has failed

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

The verdict is in. The Fed's emergency rate cuts in January have failed to halt the downward spiral towards a full-blown debt deflation. Much more drastic action will be needed.

ALOHA !!

EEMTRADER ... I have never heard Bernanke or Greenspan say that they would buy US debt, in essence monetize the debt. In the past they have never announced that but instead bought through offshore accounts based in the Caribbean. Could you please supply the link where Bernanke said that?

If he specifically said those words then a US Dollar would be toast the next day and why bother having auctions? Just print til we die!

speaking of always looking at the other side-> jesse livermore- quotes from the book ring true and have informed several generations of traders with little in the way of counter-arguments or negative comments to my knowledge. how many of us are able to duplicate his trading...how many of would want to-> is it possible to accept his trading gains in the absence of his total wipe-outs...

not my place to denigrate his achievements, just pointing out (at least for me), the need to understand my limitations in terms of applying his advice...whenever your primary motivations and goals in life differ from those from whom you seek advice, be careful...

hi kaimu -

Thank you for your posting on the detail concerning digital bullion vaults and their pros & cons. I still have a lot to learn...

you also said:
"I agree with Sinclair on 95% of his points."

Which points do you disagree with?

Many thanks in advance kaimu!
Thanks!

Kaimu:

March 2007 letter to Senator Shelby. as reported here. Maybe Sen. Inoyue or Akaka can get you the actual copy if you are that interested. I believe Jennifer Goto still runs the local office for Sen. Inoyue.

www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL34314.pdf

Oh ...here's another one from a popular blog site...posted by a popular blogger...

http://www.billcara.com/archives/2007/03/cloudy_constellation_revisited.html

go34: I know you were watching the Intel triangle coil - it broke out of that triangle in the evening session - Intel cuts margin forecast, citing memory chips: http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCNTN0340775420080304?rpc=44

BillySundance,
I attended PDAC today, I had to sneak in to the trade show part to get to Roxmark. I put my invisibility shield on and walked through security. It was brilliant because all the suppliers to the industry were there and delegations from many countries and municipalities across Canada. Just the people I needed to speak to for my work. If it was not for your inquiry I would not have attempted it; so, thanks for the push! First I met with the geologist Glen Hart, he outlined their drilling program. They are moving the drill from the Premier property as I write this to the Northern Empire property. They will start drilling as soon as he gets back up there. In the first phase they want to confirm the extension by another 400-600 yards. They will release drill results as they come in. They own the drill now, so drilling will not be a problem going forward. Afterwards I went to the Hilton Hotel at their hospitality suite and met David Malouf(Vice-Chairman) Monir Younan(President) a rep from Renmark, and Jay Richardson(Director). I spoke at length with Monir and he outlined their belief that the drilling program will increase their share price to near .30 so the warrants will be exercised and thus avoid another PP. They need about 10mil to re-open the Northern Empire Mine, which could happen by the end of the year. They all exuded a quite confidence much like a cat that just swallowed the canary. Todays results from the Premier/Roxmark JV that you posted earlier obviously was a factor.
Conclusion: I will not be selling anymore shares just yet. I may just hold for a while. I hope this helps. But, of course it is JMHO Cheers
I did buy some BLR at the open today.

EEMTRADER -
State of the credit market in mar'07 was quite a bit different from mar'08. I just hope BB will keep his mouth shut on this subject this time around.
(BTW EEM I am not trying to argue with you, just stating my opinion on realistic outcome of such buyback attempt)

OCCAM_RAZOR : No Argument or offense taken...

I am a simple guy...just love wide ranging days and women I hardly know..

The credit markets, deflation, inflation, devaluation and all the gold in my grandparents teeth been worth more than their lakefront home is just waaaayyy too out of my cranial hemisphere. :)

MOS since Nov 07 = + 100%
GLD since Nov 07 = + 30%

Less drama too.

P/S to prior post.

Not recommending MOS..overbought, overhyped and overvalued at these levels. Ugly Weekly chart, correction coming.

Just focused on capital efficiency and ROI.

ALOHA !!

EEMTRADER ... I looked at all the links you provided and there is no mention of Bernanke saying he will monetize US debt if Treasury auctions fail to attract buyers.

Those links you provide only talk about US securities already held by China and the top five US debt holders in the event China began selling their US dollar denominated reserves. It also talks about what "sanctions" the US Congress might enact against China if such an event took place.

There is nothing that Bernanke said about auctions anywhere. As you know I am the last one to believe that Bernanke and the FED are anything but corrupt, but Bernanke isn't so stupid as to say the FED will monetize its own debt. They will monetize it but they won't announce it to the US Congress and the World. That would be like Bernanke announcing on CNBC to Maria Bartolermo that the US Dollar is worth ZERO!! Well ... its close, but nobody is admitting that yet least of all Ben! By extrapolation all the other fiat currencies would be worthless as well since many countries are loaded to the gills with US debt dollars in their central bank reserves. When the World's reserve currency is worth "zero" that means the rest are not far behind.

Kaimu: Did you see your own post in that link I provided MAr 2007? You can dispute the message, dont dispute the messenger.

2nd: Don't know if yiu git the chance, but read the intel article above posted by Segio.

INTC/SNDK/MU all mentioned in nand memory downturn/margin issues.

I imagine it will affect all of NAZ tomorrow as it did AH today. I know the prices were good but it looks like they are going to get better....?

yiu git? Geez...I'm on my office machine, not my laptop, not used to this keyboard! I'm used to scrunching my fingers together on that screwy laptop:>)

KAIMU : You may have missed this on page 11 of the PDF.

In March 2007, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke reportedly stated in
a letter to Senator Shelby that “because foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities
represent only a small part of total U.S. credit market debt outstanding, U.S. credit
markets should be able to absorb without great difficulty any shift of foreign
allocations.”

He also reportedly stated that “even if such a shift were to put
undesired upward pressure on U.S. interest rates, the Federal Reserve has the
capacity to operate in domestic money markets to maintain interest rates at a level
consistent with our economic goals.”33

You can:
1) FOIA the request
2) Ask Senator Inoyue to get you an appointment with Ben for clarification by what is meant by "operate in domestic money markets"

I now consider the matter closed on my end.

Kaimu, EEM,
Read Cautions link above to the end....by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard.

It looks like some are expecting zero fed rates...maybe worse. SCARY.

$1650 POG is gonna seem cheap.

Guys....it has become alarmingly clear that Ben's beany propeller doesn't spin anymore.
He's going to make Greenspan look like an amatuer balloon artist.

Kaimu:
The other day you mentioned everyone knew Obama's middle name, and not Ben's, which started with 'S'.... I have to think that would stand for Sykorsky.

ISM index for February is 48.3. John Hussman had a couple conditions when gold shares would really outperform: Gold/$XAU ratio above 5, ISM index less than 50, rate of inflation higher than 6 months ago, and treasury yields lowers than 6 months ago.

2nd: Tech.

"Don't take action with a trade until the market itself confirms your opinion. Being a little late in a trade is insurance that your opinion is correct. In other words, don't be an impatient trader......"

"Remember this: When you are doing nothing, those speculators who feel they must trade day in and day out, are laying the foundation for your next venture. You will reap benefits from their mistakes."

~ Jesse Livermore

I'm trying to learn this....

ALOHA !!

onlineaces ... The other items I disagree with are:

1- What he calls "conspiracy theories" ... What conspiracy theories? Like the one about how the POG is manipulated by FED?

2- I also believe heavily that country risk ranks high along with management and property for determining the best juniors. Also I have often wondered what has happened to all those juniors and miners that cught with their pants down invested in ABCP? Did they ever get full repayment? You never hear about that any more.

3- Heavy % in gold I agree with as well as volatility will weed out the "gamblers" long term, but I also believe "debt attrition" needs to be counted as well. I believe a lot of people will miss out on the gold bull because they had to sell their gold to pay their mortgage or food costs.

Thats about it ... Is that 5%?

ALOHA !!

Okay EEM ... Domestic credit markets could sopp up all kinds of government debt because everyone still believes Treasuries are the safest place for your wealth here in America, but that doesn't cover the international US debt auctions and if the foreigners don't show up for that then we all have to take the FED's "testimony" on faith. I doubt the FED will have any integrity when that day comes. I am just saying the FED will monetize the debt in the domestic and international credit markets but they won't announce it and offer road maps to Bernanke's mansion. Hell they're already monetizing the US Banks derivatives losses. All they are doing actually is just buying time. Nothing is being resolved and in the meantime the notional values of derivatives is still growing.

When Greenspan testified before the US House Of Representatives before Ron Paul that the derivatives markets needed no regulation back in 2006 the cat was out of the bag. I would bet Greenspan would do anything if he could just have those remarks erased from the meeting minutes! I do not see how Greenspan can in all honesty tour the World giving speeches warning about the US Dollar and the US Banks and the US real estate and keep a straight face! What a shameful man ... I still wager that he's sitting on a pile of gold stashed in Switzerland!

By the way ... do you really think I'm going to file a FOIA or call Inouye? I did not know you were the messenger or are you saying I am? I did not mean to offend you if that's how you took it.

Thats my take ... 10-4!

ALOHA !!

Craig ... I guess my question about Bernanke's middle name would make a good Jeopardy question.

The answer: Who is "SHALOM"? BEN SHALOM BERNANKE ...

Alex I'll take Bald Fed Chairmen for $400! Oh the Daily Double!!! Ding ding ding!!

Well Sykorsky would be acceptable by the judges!!

ALOHA !!

This is why America is in trouble ...

Here we have the Pentagon critizing China's military build up. Here are two points made:

1-China's military spending continues to increase by double-digit figures and that official Chinese claims of spending $45 billion are short of actual spending, which could be as much as $139 billion.

2- China's strategy of defense includes conducting pre-emptive attacks "if the use of force protects or advances core interests, including territorial claims, for example, Taiwan and unresolved border or maritime claims."

Item #1 above the US Defense spending for FY2009 is up to $651billion USD not including Homeland Security and whatever is on the "off budget" Iraq War line item! We don't even know how much we spend on Defense so how is it we know what China really spends?

Item #2-That was the Bush strategy for Afghanistan and Iraq ... "pre-emptive"!

What goes around comes around!

Link: http://tinyurl.com/2mwvt3

WAR IN SOUTH AMERICA
Also now I am reading about war in South America with Venezuela in that mix with Ecudaor and Columbia. Is Chavez for real? I guess he needs some sort of military diversion to keep people from thinking about the high cost of tortillas! Sounds familiar "military diversions"... Can't these guys come up with something new? Why isn't crude going up? Its our chance to take Venezuela's oil in the name of saving the Venezuelan people from a mad man! I guess Exxon is glad to be out now!!! Country risk just went up! Man oh man, can anything else go wrong for KRY? I wonder how this will effect Guyana, Venezuela's neighbor? I believe there a few up and coming juniors operating there. Was it Si02 that mentioned Guayana Gold, Aranka and Gold Port? Any news of that filtering down to our guys at PDAC?