Good Morning.

Here is the Cara 100 U/D Update for 8:00 am EST:

Downgrade:

EXC - to Hold @ Deutsche Securities

-------------------------------------------------

Other stocks of interest:

HL - upgraded to Sector Perform @ CIBC

Have a great and profitable day.

jasper- sold your GLD just in time...also time to map out how to get back in->sector corrections in 2006 happened pretty fast...

CPI up .8%
Core up .3%

Today's Bill Cara Skype Streaming is at http://nexalogic.com/skype.html

Help save the environment, cut down on trillions of electrons traveling all over the world, reduce global warming, join Bill Cara Skype streaming today.

All in USD: Futures

Jan Crude 91.70 down .57
May Crude 92.23 up .62 Backwardation
Dec USD 77.13 up .55
Dec Gold 793.50 down 5.50

I hope this is not too naive, but I was wondering if instutions deliberately create bear raids, and if it is quite a common things to see? How would they do this as well?
One possible method would be if they held a number of shares of a stock. The stock goes up, so they start to sell short. They walk the bid price down 100 shares at a time. Then knowing where most stop losses are set, they dump a massive amount of shares to hit stop losses. Once the share price has drop significantly they pick up a bunch of cheap shares, and cover their short position.
In time like these I was just wondering what tatics HB&B use to still try to create some wealth.

ALOHA !!

CORAL GOLD
I owned this company a couple years ago before the US Gold deal. Unfortunately I sold before ROB POWER kicked the price up!

CapitalStreetGroup is right in that these are "inferred" and basically just a geologic guess and the grades are low even for a guess. Under the current inflationary/POG environment these grades would be too low to mine. Look to measured and indicated(M&I) ounces and grades as a better predictor of a future mine ...

LONG TERM GOLD VS GLD
My long term view on GLD goes something like this.

LOW SUPPLY
Gold mining output is dwindling and I just read an article that estimates China's top producing gold mines will be reduced to uneconomical low grades within six years. Practically every day I read where some mine is shut down or isn't producing on prior years levels. It all adds up to LESS gold ounces available to the gold market which is already a small market compared to DOW/NASDAQ/FOREX ... Gold mining production just cannot be cranked up on a dime like US Peso printers can. It takes years to get to production. Remember gold mining companies are the printing presses of gold and the juniors are the suppliers of gold!

HIGH DEMAND
Private investors are buying more physical gold and I just read where many wealthy Chinese are now buying up more gold instead of plowing profits into overheated stock markets. The missing "demand factor" is global central banks(CBs)and US(West) investors. Some CBs like Russia and China are buying and have been for years while US and Western CBs sell. What happens when CB sellers are done selling and turn into buyers?

Most people would look at what I said above about low supply and high demand and say to themselves, "Jeez, I better jump on GLD!" I read that as a complete opposite for buying GLD. What happens to GLD when they are cut off from supply? The GLD investor will end up with US Pesos in a rapid rising POG market with virtually no means to own real gold coins. If supplies are short globally that means your local coin dealer and APMEX and GoldMoney will be caught short on supply as well. The bulk of supply would go to bigger buyers like Saudis and CBs and mints(which is another reason to be at Perth Mint in allocated). GLD investors will be standing on the dock as the gold ship sails away clutching their GLD paper profits and nothing more.

The really clueless GLD holders will be convinced by Wall Street to run to the next monetary metal "silver" and buy up SLV! That makes some sense in that there is more supply of silver than gold and silver is cheaper, so silver will rise as gold supply runs out. GLD profiteers and other paper holders will come to realize that the next best place to own gold and be insured of a supply will be miners and junior explorers. By that time though strong hands who have been accumulating the best miners and juniors for years will have sucked up the majority of available shares. Prices for those shares will rise as dramatically and even higher than the prices are stagnating or falling today! Like a dotcom effect of PM shares! You always want to position yourself as close to the supply source as possible and GLD is about as far away from real gold supply sources as you can get! In fact in my mind it is even further away since the GLD and SLV gatekeepers are the same banks that are hemorraging losses and defrauding the global public and US Taxpayer today ... Is that where you want to place your trust? You guys look at GLD as a great play today but how fast can things change on Wall Street? Back before August this year less than six months ago nobody ever heard the term CDO or ABCP! How much warning did Northern Rock and CountryWide customers get? Based on HB&Bs past performance just how much warning do you think GLD and SLV holders will get? Owning the "real deal" is just as profitable as GLD and SLV is. "But buying GLD and SLV is so convenient!"

ATTENTION !!! GLD and SLV owners ... you are being out maneuvered by more savvy people in the know as I type. Back in the 1980s "gold rush" the main players were limited to mainly US and UK investors. The Russians and the Chinese were locked out of buying real gold by their government. Like Americans were back during FDR! Now the entire planet has the ability to buy gold and silver. The vast majority of these people(chinese & Russians)learned the lesson of not owning real gold a long time ago. They still remember and even more importantly they are acting on that memory! Are fiat global currencies really getting stronger? Are global and US HB&Bs getting more trustworthy?

GLD and SLV buyers BEWARE!

PS: I am told that CNI no longer sells British Gold Sovereigns. Isn't that nice to know that the one GOLD coin least likely to be confiscated by the US government(pre-1933 foreign)is no longer available?

Wow, those are ugly numbers. Futures dropped as soon as they were released.

The bond market won't like this either, right?

In the meantime, the dollar keeps gaining strength. I bought some UUP -- an ETF that invests in long USDX futures. Warning: this is a very thinly traded ETF.

I know the PM miners are out of favor for the time being, but has anyone investigated the situation at Hecla (HL)? Even with the pullback in silver and gold prices, the sell off that began Wednesday following news of the preferred offering seems to be a bit overdone. FWIW, CIBC upgraded HL this morning based on price. They say the preferred is a way to raise the capital necessary to acquire a full stake in the Greens Creek mine in Alaska (where they have a 30% interest).

I currently have no position in HL.

2nd,
Technically looking at $NYLOW (MarkM's charts)shows bottoming on macd, rising RSI and the chart itself pushed through resistance at the 200 DMA and is at 143, just below the 50 DMA at 148.58.

What's this mean?

I think we see more new lows.

great article about Mr. Harry Schultz...

--------------------------------

Schultz sees an apocalypse now

Commentary: Veteran editor declares 'A financial tsunami is upon us'

By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch
Dec 13, 2007

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The Fed flops and Wall Street is worried. But one letter veteran has been here before, not that it makes him any cheerier.

Occasionally, I get reader emails claiming that The International Harry Schultz Letter's Harry Schultz is dead. He himself insists in an email to me that he is still alive. But he must be well over 80 now, although he's always been mysterious about his age. I notice that that he's now listed as "editor emeritus," although the letter is still written in his characteristically quirky first-person voice.

Alive or not, Schultz must feel like he's been resurrected. Systemic financial fears, dollar doubts, gold gains, seeping stagflation - a word Schultz claims he coined - all eerily replicate the 1970s, which he began as a derided crank and ended victorious over the financial establishment. (After which, significantly, he was notably quick to say the storm had passed).

Shultz's latest letter, just in, is absolutely apocalyptical: "A financial tsunami is upon us," he says, caused by lax credit and complications introduced by Wall Street's derivatives craze.

Among other interesting ideas raised by Schultz in his intense, somewhat terrifying introduction: recession, possibly depression; bank failures; exchange controls; housing prices down by 50%; credit card company failures; money market fund dangers; tripling of U.S. jobless numbers; federal bail-outs for Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE).

His advice, translated out of his shorthand style: "If you have not already done so, take immediate measures to safeguard your assets against the global derivative crisis ... Most urgent is close out time deposits, buy non-U.S. government bonds."

In other words, Schultz is saying the U.S. banking system is threatened. How's that for a Christmas greeting?

Schultz says "the second biggest danger is owning U.S. dollars in any form, (it) has crashed and going much lower ... use dollar rallies to exit dollars or sell short ... This is not a time to seek profits, but to protect what U have ... Portfolio diversification is essential in troubled times."

Schultz's favored currencies: "In order of preference: Swiss Franc, Australian dollar, Euro, Canadian dollar."

Schultz is a trader and his specific market advice is nuanced. He writes: "Direction of global stock markets uncertain. Balance stock holdings between long and shorts to counterbalance draw-down risks, and/or hedge exposure via puts, futures, or bear funds ... Exposure to gold shares and bullion should be a minimum of 35-45% of your total portfolio, with at least 10% in physical gold bullion and coins, and/or very rare coins ... "

On gold, he writes: "The public is still not in the gold market. They will be in 2008 as the derivatives and credit crises bring down more financial institutions (amid recession) and eyes will be opened, via pain. While Rome burns, gold will smash through its old unadjusted-for-inflation $850 high on the way to $1,600, & who knows how far beyond ..."

Schultz is still buying a few stocks. His top pick for December: Terra Nitrogen Co. LP, (TNH). But he recommends buying when and if the stock closes above $130 on two consecutive days.

Amid the apocalyptic advice, Schultz finds time to dispense some other helpful hints. Avoid fluoride. Cell phones may cause cancer. Sauerkraut makes for a healthier prostate. Use faxes for all financial transactions. Give money to Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul on his Dec. 16 Boston Tea Party anniversary fundathon.

In case you're wondering, Schultz is up 21.42% over the past 12 months according to the Hulbert Financial Digest, vs. 7.51% for the dividend-reinvested Dow Jones Wilshire 5000. Over the past five years, Schultz is up a remarkable 34.38% annualized vs. 12.85% annualized for the DJW.

Not so easy to dismiss.

Re gld and volume

I think volume is important here and like what I see so far on the weekly and monthly,the daily is less optimistic or clear. If this is a bull flag building the usd may be building a bear flag under the 1992 low.77.30 looks like fib res to me.

http://tinyurl.com/2av4l9

I thought the ppi was bearish for usd as we enter a rate cutting cycle?

The volatility is awe inspiring.

craig- i like todd harrison's denial-migration-panic model->last take from him was we're at the top of the second inning...thinking of using the QID/DUG i have now as a base upon which to build an aggressive short position, but as we both know, counter-trend rallies can be brutal...

still think the 2008-2010 gold trade is where the money's going to be made...among other reasons (and apart from isolated headlines last summer), most investors aren't really tuned into it yet...

The second inning of a losing game....

Already well past denial...migration has been happening to defensives/treasuries/foreign bonds for a while....those will likely ebb and flow until that last stage kicks in....then maybe back again.

Keep your dancing shoes on.

Bill said that Banks will need to "... raise the capital necessary to remain afloat, ie, maintain minimum capital reserves as required by the Fed..." I think the deadline for this action is by the end of December. Thus, digital $US might be sucked back onto balance sheets, and thus the $US chart line might rise to reflect this "demand" for dollars until the end of the month.

BUT, does anyone really expect this Fed to enforce ANY rules on Banks. Effort to meet rules might be expected, but Bank failures due to Fed rules for reserves?

Bill said that Banks will need to "... raise the capital necessary to remain afloat, ie, maintain minimum capital reserves as required by the Fed..." I think the deadline for this action is by the end of December. Thus, digital $US might be sucked back onto balance sheets, and thus the $US chart line might rise to reflect this "demand" for dollars until the end of the month.

BUT, does anyone really expect this Fed to enforce ANY rules on Banks. Effort to meet rules might be expected, but Bank failures due to Fed enforcement of its own rules?

If this is a duplicate, I'm sorry but the "Server" is not helping me at all this morning.

scaling into WGW at 3.28, adding to NOT.V at 4.25, adding to UNG at 34.78, opening a small position in GFI...

Also, isn't this the day for physical delivery on currency options. Pony up on that wrong bet on the $US which has moved up surprisingly since the end of Nov. Wonder which way GS had its bets?

UNG- adding back jan 35 calls at 1.90...

Added to FXF @88.90

Someone is aggressively buying Jan $12.50 Strike puts on HRB. that is very aggressive.

Sorry, FXF 86.90

craig- can you provide that link to currency ETFs again...keeping an eye on shultz's quotes in the 913am post...

DUG:
OIH, XLE and Oil down. Anyone know why DUG is not moving?

I don't have the first one, try this: http://tinyurl.com/2gh2bt

Kaimu, while I technically agree with you, there aren't so many options for people who want to hold bullion but don't want to fill their basement with it (hah, yeh like I could do that anyway). Everything we do here is on paper, and at a certain point you just cross your fingers and hope people will honor their contracts. Your view, though I think you may be right, isn't widely held, and perception is everything. When people flock to gold, they will flock to GLD, because that's what the Street.com et al will be pushing. Are pure futures any better? I can't afford that kind of leverage. So that leaves mining shares, which, as we know can act like any shares in a down market--they drop like a stone. As a small investor, I would love to add bullion, but show me how I can do it without saving $800 to buy one ounce of metal.

The miners are under extreme pressure. This has all the markings of the late summer drubbing meted out to these stocks. Ironically, however, the price of the underlying metals is significantly higher.

Cara Update 10:00 am EST:

Upgrade:

DIS - to Buy @ UBS

Cara 100 Update 10:00 am EST:

Upgrade:

DIS - to Buy @ UBS

So, where does everyone think all the money flooding the market next week will go?

The US banks get 20B on Monday
The ECB banks get 20B USD Monday
The Swiss banks get 4B USD Monday
The English Banks get 11.35B on Tuesday
Then the US banks get 20B more on Thursday.

Wil they uses these loans to make their balance sheets and reserve ratios look better for the end of the year or will they use that money for trading to try and make more money?

Figuring this out would be very helpful for trading next week.

Rob.

'Will they uses these loans to make their balance sheets and reserve ratios look better for the end of the year or will they use that money for trading to try and make more money?'

I think the 'tell' will be in the LIBOR - FED funds target spread, which has actually moved higher since the FED rate cut to 4.99 - 4.25 = 74 bps. A week ago it was at 5.15 - 4.50 = 65 bps. This tells me the big banks are apt to hoard the cash.

JogyP,

DUG is the opposite of DIG, which holds 26% of holdings in XOM. XOM has not been falling with the rest of the sector today, yet.

Zenob

You still holding your FXP?

I rode that baby to the depths of hell, then yesterday I sold it, a little above my cost basis before it started to fall back a little. Today it is soaring to the heavens.

^$%*@... !!! !

With inflation so high, why would banks lend at real rates near zero (inflation adjusted)? Banks must make more than inflation rate. In my mind bank rates should go up not down. Is this not true?

ALOHA !!

ON CORAL GOLD
Green arrow ... Sorry but the way your post data appears is messy. I have noticed that "spreadsheet type data does not post well here since delination and lines are not shown.

In actuality I take back what I said about the "total" grade and not being economical since I was looking at the oz/t AU grade instead! That is not bad for an open pit mine "0.87 g/t AU", but its still a guess and is one step up from "surface grab sampling" and that is one step up from "we are commencing drilling"! HA!!

The real question is will that grade still be economically viable in five years? Yet another guess is required and when you start piling guesses on top of guesses then it gets quite ... "guessy"! Don't buy guesses ...

Sold some FXP in mid 78s, down to 25% of original investment. I sold my hedge in SHI last night at the close at $65. (up minimally, but served its purpose as a hedge)

Looking to put the long FXP paired with long SHI hedge back on when spread widens again but another good entry may not appear until next week.

Still holding strong to all three of my proshares: SKF, QID, and FXP. Hopefully my greed won't nail me in the butt again.

I'm starting to think that the reality is starting to win out over all the "soft landing, sub-prime is contained, market is going to new highs..." BS. I'm mainly guessing here, but I'm hoping to see FXP break 90 in the near future. I think the Chinese stock market is the index with the most potential downside right now. It's gone up like a rocket for the past several years and I'm not sure how much support it has for those sky high levels.

My SKF I love. It's the one thing in my portfolio that I have zero fear holding. The entire financial system is swimming in toxic waste. I don't really see them pulling off any sustainable rallies in that environment.

Of course, I'm still a newb at this stuff so I could be tragically wrong on everything lol

Every time they publish the CPI, I marvel that anyone with an IQ of 20 or more believes ANYTHING the Bush administration says.

Can you...even in a delusional stupor...imagine a "Core" inflation figure which EXCLUDES FOOD AND ENERGY?????

No wonder the U.S. is on a collision course with oblivion. This WWII veteran wishes them GODSPEED!!!

Zenob

Good job my friend!

ALOHA !!

SiO2 ... Ask the Bank Of Japan that question! They still get "fees" and a teency margin and when you trade in the "gazillion" YEN quantites on a daily basis it all adds up! I am sure they have other "reserve fiat" tricks up their sleeves as well.

Banks and attorneys ... One of the best attorneys I ever had told me once when I came in for a consultation ... "I'll be completely honest with you right from the start ... I win even when you lose ... Keep that in mind, but also keep in mind "I win" and that's why you're here!" I thought to myself ... "What an arrogant bastard!" But ... I went with him and "HE WON"! Just a caveat ... He won that case and I got a judgement for $350k, but the company I sued filed bankruptcy three days later. I still owed that attorney $20k. He said that since I never collected that he would forgive the $20k! WOW ... Holy _ _ _ _ !!! How many attorneys would do that?

That's like banks ... If you make your living off "fees" trading in paper that literally grows out of thin air then BANKS ALWAYS WIN ... until they get too greedy! Like Bill says they are trading "OPM" - Other People's Money! Oh and banks NEVER FORGIVE NOTHING! But they sure do accept US Taxpayer bailouts quite freely!!!

Is this a complete CON GAME or what?

Some of the financials turning green now.
Santa rally starting now?

^$%*@... !!! !

Posted by: Isaiah64v4 at December 14, 2007 10:17 AM

don't worry, it will come back to you...the purpose of making sales yesterday (and i don't recall suggesting selling ALL of it, but rather to pare back) was to cut exposure...

adding to QID here...

Any artsy fartsy types out there?

You want to take a stab at a cool Caraistas T-shirt?

Maybe we could sell them with the proceeds going to charity?

Bill hasn't ok'd this, I just thought it would be cool to have one.

Any word on results of ABCP report out today?

Perimeter Financial doesn't seem to be getting too many bids...

http://www.perimeterabcp.com/

Omega ATS appears to offer realtime level 2 quotes for certain CAD stocks.

Launched yesterday.

http://level2.omegaats.com/

Our favourite dog KRY is on there.

http://level2.omegaats.com/

Added ECU.TO for 2.18 through IB. (I had to buy CAD)

"Hooker's Bunk Beds Pose Risks; Voluntary Recall Issued"

I found this headline on Marketwatch.com and found it amusing. Be careful out there!

kaimu

"is this a complete con game or WHAT?"

I'll answer your question if you can tell me while tech is getting slaughtered today when just 2 nights ago on CNBC every guest on the tube was cheer leading tech stocks as a group?
One more question....Cramers news letter just last week had header after header cheer leading tech, then why does tech get hammered today?
"is this a complete con game?"
See your 2 rupee's and 3 yen...raise you 1 cheap fiat dollar!

Definition of a bear market seems to be the transfer of wealth from the bottom 98% of the population to the top 1.999% using pro forma double trick accounting.

Re-Started a position in NOT.V @ 4.26

What's the "story" on why the dollar is gaining ground?

Zenob, i'm a newb, too, and i own SKF. But don't "love" any of this stuff, okay, because there may come a time when it doesn't love you back. (Actually, in SKF's case, I prefer short flings.) Harden your heart when it comes to speculating!

"Some of the financials turning green now."

Apparently this was sparked by an erroneous report that S&P upgraded its outlook in CountryWide. The report has been corrected. Will the financials follow?

Also, this is a thin volume day -- the snow storms in New England keeping traders at home?

ALOHA !!

ronbon ... You hit the nail on the head! I guess there are a lot of people in the USA with IQs of 19! We are working on the 10th version of the CPI since it was created. God only knows how many more versions of everything we are on. PPI? Jobs data? Where's the credibility? When government and the minions that work for government are covered under a "non-indemnity" clause where nobody is legally responsible then what can you expect? With no accountability you get no morals and a whole lotta greed! Are there any insiders reading this that are working at the US Treasury or the FED? You wanna come in from the cold? What's the worst that can happen to you? You get fired! Hummmm or do you think it would be worse? Maybe you'd become a hero and write a best selling novel and be rich and famous and get on 60 Minutes!!! Maybe ...

ronbon I miss your generation. There are very few left and my Father's(WW2 vet)passing last year just brings home how little is left of the old guard and austere values of working hard and saving and honoring your word with a hand shake. It is very sad to see all your generation's hard work being spent in a matter of months by the crooks now in power! Thank you for getting us this far ...

We're now in the agile hands of the "I did not inhale" and the "Mission accomplished" crowd who grew up on Gilligan's Island! Even worse it won't be long until the "What Up Ho?" and "Real World" crowd will be signing my life away! It's ROME ... let it burn! 10-4 ...

2nd

You're right you did say that.

P.S. -- ESLR has huge volume today. No news that I can see is driving this, aside from an upgrade today by a second tier house. Or is it the energy bill?

Doubt either one is to blame.

Shorts are no doubt in a panic.

Long ESLR.

That XLF/SKF chart is too iffy here!

I shorted SKF to 30.10 and got the heck out of there. Should have turned and bought it for the ride down on XLF. Too quick and unexpected a reversal.

XLF looks to be forming an intraday head and shoulders. Let's see....

ALOHA !!

ronbon ... You hit the nail on the head! I guess there are a lot of people in the USA with IQs of 19! We are working on the 10th version of the CPI since it was created. God only knows how many more versions of everything we are on. PPI? Jobs data? Where's the credibility? When government and the minions that work for government are covered under a "non-indemnity" clause where nobody is legally responsible then what can you expect? With no accountability you get no morals and a whole lotta greed! Are there any insiders reading this that are working at the US Treasury or the FED? You wanna come in from the cold? What's the worst that can happen to you? You get fired! Hummmm or do you think it would be worse? Maybe you'd become a hero and write a best selling novel and be rich and famous and get on 60 Minutes!!! Maybe ...

ronbon I miss your generation. There are very few left and my Father's(WW2 vet)passing last year just brings home how little is left of the old guard and austere values of working hard and saving and honoring your word with a hand shake. It is very sad to see all your generation's hard work being spent in a matter of months by the crooks now in power! Thank you for getting us this far ...

We're now in the agile hands of the "I did not inhale" and the "Mission accomplished" crowd who grew up on Gilligan's Island! Even worse it won't be long until the "What Up Ho? Pimp My Ride" and "Real World" crowd will be signing my life away! It's ROME ... let it burn! 10-4 ...

ALOHA !!

PIMP MY RIDE got added ...

Hi Bill, my name is Eddie Kwong. I'm the Executive VP at TradingMarkets. I apologize, but this is something I wanted to send you via email, but I could find your email address.

Can I send you some new research now and then on RSI and other kinds of findings? I think you'll find some of Larry Connors recent research stimulating and interesting.

Thanks, Eddie

P.S. Thank you for linking to our site TradingMarkets and for what you're doing to make the world a safer place for traders and investors.

KAIMU

Have physical gold but do you have any thoughts on CEF - thanks in advance....

n2son-

They signed a 10-year agreement to supply silicon to a French company last night.

Krugman - as usual - explains the latest in the financial rot in simple, direct, big-picture terms.

Today's Krugman column in NYTimes says:

- were current debt market problems those of liquidity, Central Banks could solve them through providing short-term liquidity

- since the issue is SOLVENCY, banks don't dare lend to other banks, or in general.

- only when US house prices have fallen 20-30% will the traditional ratio of rents/purchase be restored.

- If house prices correct 20%, 14M homeowners will have negative equity, if 30%, 20M will. (Calculated Risk is cited for these calculations.)

- negative equity means foreclosures.

NYTimes no longer charges, but you must register:

http://tinyurl.com/3y8oho

Thanks, kaimu; it's getting lonely out here on the "credibility express". Sorry to hear about your dad; it's happening to about a thousand of us a day, but then, how long can that last?

Read your posts with interest and hope you enjoy your life in paradise. All the best. Keep the good ideas coming.

Percentage increases from the PPI released yesterday. Biggest increases: petroleum, fuel, farm products, chemicals. Biggest decline: electronic components.

Farm products are up 21% year over year.
Finished goods up 7.7%.

In %:

Crude petroleum (domestic production) 64.6
Gasoline 51.1
#2 diesel fuel 50.5
Finished energy goods 25.7
Fuels and related products and power 25.3
Crude materials 22.2
Farm products 21.0
Chemicals and allied products 18.0
Industrial electric power 9.0
All commodities 9.0
Intermediate materials,supplies and components 8.6
Industrial Commodities 8.5
Finished goods 7.7
Finished consumer foods 7.3
Iron and steel 5.0
Metals and metal products 4.9
General purpose machinery and equipment 3.9
Pulp, paper, and allied products 3.9
Aircraft engines and engine parts 3.4
Intermediate materials less food and energy 3.3
Industrial Commodities less fuels 3.2
Aircraft and aircraft equipment 2.7
Vitamins, nutrients & hematinic preps. 2.4
Construction machinery and equipment 2.3
Finished goods less food and energy 2.0
Materials and components for construction 1.7
Capital equipment 1.3
Transportation equipment 1.0
Paper 0.9
Aircraft parts and auxiliary equipment, nec 0.9
Motor vehicle parts 0.9
Natural gas 0.2
Machinery and equipment -0.2
Steel mill products -0.4
Lumber and wood products -2.5
Electrical machinery and equipment -2.8
Electronic components and accessories -11.7

Complete list for every month at http://shockedinvestor.blogspot.com

Bill:

This is Eddie Kwong again. Referring to my earlier inquiring about sending you some new research, I forget into include my email address:

eddiek@cg3.com

Thanks,
Eddie Kwong
TradingMarkets.com

ESLR: The stock jumped after hours last night from reaching a supply agreement for silicon - strong PV growth has caused silicon demand to exceed supply. ESLR's unique manufacturing process (string ribbon) uses about half the silicon as conventional wafer technology, providing cost and supply advantages.

Also, UBS analyst initiated coverage with a 'buy' rating.

http://tinyurl.com/2ga2ye

Unfortunately, I sold my shares into the close yesterday (before all the news) for a nice profit - wish I had kept a portion...

SiO2 , thanks for the list and the link. Did you notice farm products are up double digits almost every month?! I'm afraid to ask because of what it implies for food prices, but what does farm products cover, do you know?

Goldman Sachs Launches Tradeable Index for Longevity and Mortality Risks
12:01p ET December 14, 2007 (Business Wire)

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE: GS) today announced that it has launched the first index that will allow market participants to measure, manage, and trade exposure to longevity and mortality risks in a standardized, transparent, and real-time manner.

Longevity and mortality are the risks that realized lifespan differs from expected lifespan, creating an economic consequence, often a price change in an asset or liability. Holders of mortality risk -- typically institutions such as insurance carriers and reinsurers -- are economically exposed to a decrease in lifespan, while holders of longevity risks -- pension funds, annuity writers, the social security trust fund or life settlement investors -- are exposed to an increase.

QxX.LS, the first in an expected series of indices, will be a representative sample of the US senior insured population over the age of 65. The initial index will reference a pool of 46,290 de-identified lives.

QxX.LS is based on a population designed to address risks to which major market participants are exposed and is independently tracked monthly, providing real-time publication of mortality information. The results will be periodically verified by a third party. Published index rules and trading calculators are available on Bloomberg at (QXX (GO)) and on the QxX website at http://www.qxx-index.com, ensuring observability and transparency.

Up until now, holders of longevity and mortality risks have had no mechanism to dynamically manage their exposures in the capital markets.

Hedge funds, banks and asset managers with existing positions in the cash longevity market, or those with an interest in gaining synthetic exposure to this uncorrelated risk class, will be able to use the index to either hedge existing exposure or to initiate investments.

"We are excited about bringing this unique product to the market and believe that it will quickly establish itself as the market benchmark. This will result in more transparent pricing of longevity risk, should reduce transaction friction, and will likely lead to improved economics for market participants," said Alex Dubitsky, head of Goldman Sachs' Longevity Markets Group.

Dubitsky added, "Goldman Sachs is committed to helping our clients manage risk efficiently. We view this as the first step in bringing a suite of new risk management tools to an important asset class."

Goldman Sachs is a leading global investment banking, securities and investment management firm that provides a wide range of services worldwide to a substantial and diversified client base that includes corporations, financial institutions, governments and high net worth individuals. Founded in 1869, it is one of the oldest and largest investment banking firms. The firm is headquartered in New York and maintains offices in London, Frankfurt, Tokyo, Hong Kong and other major financial centers around the world.

SOURCE: The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Michael DuVally, 212-902-5400

New Flyer Industries Inc. (NFI.UN-T) at $12.74: New 52-Week High

I mentioned this company a number of times over the past few weeks..... any takers?

Goldman profiting from mortgage mess: report
8:21a ET December 14, 2007 (MarketWatch)

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Unlike rivals that have been hammered by the subprime-mortgage debacle, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is set to reap a windfall as a result of bets made by its mortgage department that securities backed by high-risk home loans would plunge in value, The Wall Street Journal reported Friday. The well-timed move has generated nearly $4 billion of profit for the year ended Nov. 30, the newspaper reported, citing sources familiar with Goldman Sachs' financing. The gains more than offset between $1.5 billion and $2 billion of mortgage-related losses in other parts of the company, according the report. The Journal said Goldman Sachs, which is scheduled to report quarterly results next week, is expected by Wall Street analysts to deliver annual net income in excess of $11 billion.

"So it'll come as no surprise when shares of energy fuel stocks take off on Pickens latest 395,000 share investment in $677 million Clean Energy (CLNE). Pickens holds the belief that clean fuel is the “fuel of the future” and knows that Wall Street is unfairly overlooking an under-the-radar stock." (Wealth Daily, dec 14th)

I have been looking at this one for a while ... see it as a possible day/week/longer trade

I have just caught up with reading yesterday's discourse and will reply to those who made reference to me later today or this weekend.

FWIW:

A mention of the RSI as an indicator in a Barry Ritholz article that I found of value.

http://tinyurl.com/yvba6z

Publisher scrubs U.S. prices from Canadian magazine covers

Last Updated: Friday, December 14, 2007 | 9:08 AM ET
The Canadian Press
Instead of dropping its Canadian prices, a U.S. magazine publisher has quietly removed the American price for its magazines — leaving only the Canadian price on the cover.

But despite the loonie being at or near parity with the U.S. greenback, the Canadian magazine prices remain up to 30 per cent higher than what Americans pay for the same Hearst Magazines publications.

New York-based Hearst is the publisher of such magazines as Cosmopolitan, Seventeen, Esquire and The Oprah Magazine.

An unnamed Hearst official tells the Toronto Star the reason for the move to single pricing in Canada is to eliminate any confusion among consumers, adding it was done at the request of Canadian wholesalers.

The higher prices for items like magazines, books and greeting cards in the face of dollar parity have been a magnet for Canadian anger.

Some retailers, like Wal-Mart Canada, have been charging customers the U.S. prices on magazines and books to ward off customer complaints.

© The Canadian Press,

You gotta love it....

Next thing you know someone who sells something in a bottle will make the bottle a LITTLE BIT smaller but won't lower the price and won't tell the consumer...

OOPS...they have already done that

But it is ok... Caveat emptor will cover it.

Wonder if it was because Wal-mart was selling magazines in USD & pressuring suppliers?

LOL Bill!
One of the talking heads on Kudlow joked the other day...."If you need a heart for a transplant, get the heart of a banker, it's never been used".

"Sources close to the investor committee overseeing the negotiations said that while some noteholders might get most of their money back, others will likely see losses of more than 50%."

"Hopefully, there will be valuations," said another source.

Montreal Proposal down to wire

http://tinyurl.com/yrt3e3

Bernanke says we need transparency from mortgage industry...and they will need compensation for said transparancy....

I wonder, do shareholders need to pay for company information?

These crooked SOB's.

I can see I'm going to need a check from the IRS to pay for transparency. Think Ben will defend me?

H&R Block Schedules Earnings Conference Call for Monday, Dec. 17

2007-12-14 13:31 ET - News Release

Company Website: http://www.hrblock.com
KANSAS CITY, Mo. -- (Business Wire)

H&R Block Inc. (NYSE: HRB) yesterday filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) its Form 10-Q report for the fiscal 2008 second quarter ended Oct. 31, 2007. The Form 10-Q reaffirms the preliminary revenue and profit/loss information announced by the company Dec. 11.

The company had filed a Form 12b-25 report with the SEC on Dec. 11, providing notification that it would not be able to file its Form 10-Q by the Dec. 10 deadline, but that it expected to file its Form 10-Q by Dec. 14. On Dec. 11 the company also announced that its earnings conference call scheduled for that day would be postponed until after the Form 10-Q was filed.

Earnings Conference Call

H&R Block will host a conference call at 4:15 p.m. EST on Monday, Dec. 17, 2007, to discuss its fiscal 2008 second quarter financial results and future expectations with analysts, institutional investors and shareholders. To access the call, please dial the number below approximately five to 10 minutes prior to the scheduled starting time:

U.S./Canada (888) 679-8018 – Participant Passcode: 11822905

International (617) 213-4845 – Participant Passcode: 11822905

Pre-registration is available for the conference call on H&R Block's Investor Relations Web site at http://investor-relations.hrblock.com. Those who pre-register will receive a PIN to minimize connection time when accessing the live call.

The call also will be webcast in a listen-only format for the media and public. The link to the webcast and a supporting slide presentation can be accessed directly at http://investor-relations.hrblock.com.

A replay of the call will be available beginning at 6:30 p.m. EST Dec. 17 and continuing until 12 p.m. EST Dec. 31, 2007, by dialing (888) 286-8010 (U.S./Canada) or (617) 801-6888 (international). The replay passcode is 34107081. The webcast will be available for replay on the company's Investor Relations Web site at http://investor-relations.hrblock.com.

Bill

Re: Your book...

Is shipping and handling really $20 for your book?

HRB Conf Monday Dec 17
http://tinyurl.com/2c6bqk

4:15pm
U.S./Canada (888) 679-8018
Participant Passcode: 11822905

oops. got beaten to it

Citigroup blinked.

"Citigroup Inc., bruised by mounting losses, is bailing out seven affiliated investment entities, bringing $49 billion in assets onto its balance sheet and further denting its depleted capital base."

http://tinyurl.com/2f4xbd

Up 2% on news?

regarding inflation,

restaurants provide a critical example of danger signs:

most resto's wont simply raise prices when things get too expensive or business is poor. they cut back on portion sizes, use filler type options or stay away from certin dishes all together.

i remember a really good pizza place near my old apartment that i used to go all the time, i knew thier pies like the back of my hand,
gradually though business was getting bad and i noticed the pizza's were out longer, the toppings were thinner and less cheese (cheese is usually the more expensive and perishable items for pizza joints)

i still went out of some degree of loyalty to the owner but eventually i realized i was spending $4.75 for a slice of pizza that was half as good and had half the toppings it did a few months ago.

the place closed down a few months later. the owner was in a bind, drop prices and come up short on payment obligations that havent gone down like lease/rent, food and staff costs, up the prices and you get less sales.

so keeping prices the same for less product is the easier way to pull the wool over a customer's eyes. but like most things eventually people get smart.

but when it comes to large chains and the like, it may not be as readily evident, extra fries on the plate to hide the smaller piece of meat, cutitng that famous cheese cake into 8 pieces instead of 6. cutting corners to balance out the increased cost of food.

in teh end it contributes to a general feeling of all sizzle and no steak where you are consisntly underwhelmed by what your dollar buys or persistantly shocked at how much the things you used to enjoy really cost.

HRB better not be allowed to get any of the TAF money Monday in exchange for their worthless paper or their balance sheet will appear alot better than reality. I wonder if that's why the FED timed the money for next week. GS reports before the open Tuesday. MS at some point Wednesday and BSC before the open Thursday. Wouldn't it be convenient to get rid of that messy paper just before they have to release their balance sheet and reserve ratios.

It all makes me want to buy GS calls and maybe go long on the indexes next week.

I still think HRB is doomed. They just don't seem to be a big enough player to get some of the TAF.

Rob.

Market's technicals are still negative, so downside is still in play. Potentially large liquidity injections by CBs next week suggest larger than normal movements in money markets. The loans are an attempt to keep the monetary system humming during the last week of normal trading volumes before low-volume holiday trading kicks in the last full week of December.

Looking ahead, unless the market is in all-out panic mode by Dec.21, any downside should give way to a more bullish set-up due to three factors: the Dec.25 and Jan.1 holidays, month-end, and year-end.

http://www.2globalmarkets.com

dr.cosa,

You of all people should know that these restaurants "cut back on portion sizes" for better reasons than the cost factor. It was because they were concerned for our health.

:>)

TGIF

I decided to open up a tiny position in WHY.V today. Seems to have fallen off a cliff on no news lately. It is back where it began before a huge run last year that brought it briefly close to $1.

I have seen a lot of tiny explorers trending back to close gaps at the beginning of breakouts that occured in the last couple years.

Also eyeing RMK.V which I have been in and out of a couple times. Hoping to get it sub $.20.

Looks like the opportunity may be coming for some nice bottom-fishing in juniors.

I don't think HRB is big enough to get any TAF nor too big too fail. Too many S&L and Brokers need the cheap money first. C, WM, CFC, FRE, FNM, SLM, HBC, etc etc. Wouldn't it be funny to see GS on the welfare line!

In fact any company that lines up for this auction money shouldn't be paying $1 in bonuses. Oh well.

Hoping that Monday will see 4x avg volume on HRB and a gap down tuesday. it deserves one.

To newbies and note to self:

Anybody learning anything from Bill these past few days????

Where has he been? Where is he?

Either flying and enjoying some sort of concoction or on someone's yacht or from what I can gather by the pool.

He is convincing me that there are times to be doing other things than trading.

I am going to shovel some snow. Hey we all can't afford pools.

:>)

Hammer RE...BILLS BOOK

I ordered Bill's Book and was issued a 10.00 credit for shipping.

I has to process the order first, then the 10.00 was refunded and I was notified via EMAIL..

This time CPI percentage increases on raw foods, year over year:

Eggs Grade A 37.52
Orange juice 18.56
Lettuce 16.24
Coffee 14.22
Chicken whole 10.68
Bread 8.05
Ground Beef 6.79
Tomatoes 3.76
Bananas 3.41
Apples Red Del 1.29
Oranges Navel -10.08
Milk Not available

Milk data is not available because apparently it is not a food item that people consume anymore. Based on the above, if all you eat are apples and oranges you are doing well financially.

Monthly graphs of each available at http://shockedinvestor.blogspot.com/

Media General's SILVER STOCKS industry group just dropped below the May, '06 peak. It's become "impulse red" on a daily and weekly basis (for those of you following the weekly impulse reports). Gold stocks are red on the daily, but still neutral on the weekly chart.

Thanks basketguy...was looking to order and I wasn't sure if the shipping was right.

i couldnt find an answer online so i cracked open a book that was mandatory at nyu and here is what i found about over owned stocks like HRB. Confirmed my thoughts but wanted to be sure:

Benjamin Graham, The Intelligent Investor, P.375

Check out the Neighborhood.
...Anything over 60% (institution ownership) suggests that a stock is scarcely undiscovered and probably "overowned." When big institutions sell, they tend to move in lockstep, with disastrous results for the stock. Imagine all the Radio City Rockettes toppling off the front edge of the stage at once and you get the idea. Those website will also tell you who the largest owners of the stock are. If they are money management firms that invest in a style similar to your own, thats a good sign.

Pinetree (PNP.TO) has reach a key support level:

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?pnp.to

Isn't Pinetree a pretty good proxy for Junior Miners?

If Pinetree breaks decisively before CDN$4, won't we have clear confirmation of Bill's expected major correction?

Sio2,
Based on your list and the geometric weighting formula that they've used since '99 to compute CPI. We're all buying more apples and oranges and less lettuce and orange juice. We're buying more beef and less chicken. I don't know what we're substituting for eggs but we're certainly not buying them.

When figuring the CPI they assume we buy more goods falling in price and less goods increasing in price. I'm sure some people do it sometimes but the only reason they generalize it out to everyone is to keep the CPI artificially low.

Another trick they have is called Hedonic Modelling. That's where, even if you paid 1K for your new TV, they only input into the CPI that you paid 700 bucks. The other 300 doesn't count because of the "value" improvements like a sharper picture or louder speakers. Obviously a tactic just to further lower the "official" CPI.

But you're still out the 300 buck that they didn't count. I don't see any TAF's for us to make up for this inflation we're paying for but they're not reporting.

Rob.

BNN reported that today the TSX will likely add Timminco (TIM), and possibly Sandvine to the TSX index after the close.

TIM produces high-grade silicon for solar panels, SVC is a high-growth tech jewel based in Waterloo.

'Pinetree (PNP.TO) has reach a key support level: '

If we account for the scale, PNP.TO and XGD.TO (PM miner ETF) look eerily similar on P&F chart. If it falls through support at this point, it may fall quite a ways down.

Seamus: CHSCP at $25

Also, GDX (market vectors gold miners) is at a two month low and looks to have broken below the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart.

NYUgrad:

"over owned stocks" ... well done

Put this with the fact that some funds cannot own certain companies but MAY HAVE to own the same company in the future because of the funds mandates.

I like to do DD on companies that are not yet part of an index but have the potential to be included in that index in the not to distant future.

Si02:

BNN reported that today the TSX will likely add Timminco (TIM), and possibly Sandvine to the TSX index after the close.

Posted by: SiO2 at December 14, 2007 3:06 PM

Hadn't noticed your post before I responded to NYUgrad...

I am going to look up the recent trading history of the firms mentioned and look for clues that somebody knew it was coming.

TIM....nov 28 very abnormal volume

I see it.

TIM is up today, SVC has not moved much. Let's see if there are any news tonight.

If sandvine is added we should see an increase in buying volume etc I know nothing about the company at the present but I like the relatively low volatility and upward steps developing in the chart pattern.

I will look at over the weekend, watch its price action early next week and if it spikes wait for to come back down to a PP or some other entry point if I decide I want to own it or trade it.

I am looking at SVC on the TSE as Sandvine...

It has only been around for a year and has a
great chart pattern as far as I am concerned...been range bond for a while after a steady climb.....

Gut Feeling... if it is added to the index it flies... I caution... eagles fly and so do turkeys

SVC...supportb at $5 ?????

SCV

I do not short but if it doesn't get added I am not so certain I would short it.

Do you have real time level 2 or whatever available? If so and you have time...what is it doing now?

SVC....weekend hold?

I guess PPT took this friday off?

I guess PPT took this friday off?

NYUgrad...if they did...Why?

SVC...closed above its open near the daily high with no apparent volatilty..... some people like that kind of trading at the end of the day...

maybe they now realize they can't stop this speeding train?

Anybody else think that Monday could turn out to be interesting? :-)

Who is ringing the "closing bell" for today's blog?

Mondays are always interesting.

Golfer...

That was a quick shovel job...:^)

Were you just telling us that so we would take our eyes away from the market???

I just ordered the book. I've been following this blog for over a year and am slowly learning. Hope to test the trading waters beginning 2008.

I was pretty surprised by the close. I assumed there would be a small bump at the end as short sellers bought to cover for the weekend. I wonder if that means the shorts are feeling more confident then normal.

Jock,
I keep PNP up on my tsx.com window everyday. Some of the most knowledgeable investors on Sheldon are on the CCJ Yahoo board. That is because so much of his portfolio is invested in Uranium. As you know, PNP can have some wild swings in price. It is looking good as a scale in at this price.

Just returned home from a funeral and missed this afternoon's action.

I'm delighted to see an 11% spike up in MNTA....with no news. Wonder what's going on here?

Have a great weekend all.

The Nasdaq volume was lower today than Tuesday-Thursday. So was Dow and S&P volume. Also, I'm thinking the banks will trade the market higher next week with all of their new money. So I sold my DIA and QQQQ puts for a 33% gain since Tuesday. I'm still holding the HRB puts. I bought some April GS calls in anticipation of their earnings Tuesday AM. I also bought UYG, thinking the banks will get some support as they receive their new money.

Rob.

Basketguy:

I did go shovel snow and did some thinking and let some things mull around in my head and when I came back in NYUgrad had something that interested me and you know what happened next....

things just SNOWBALLED from there...

NYUgrad,

Thanks for all your postings and analysis on HRB. I bought the July $20 puts at $3.20 and it's been moving in the right direction. What's your thinking on the conference call? Any chance for positive surprises or you think it's all negative?

My one insight into this play is that I think the first quarter is going to be a let down for all tax prep companies due to the AMT delay. There are a lot of filers that like to get their refunds as soon as they can and with a Jan 31st. quarter end that does not leave much time for the govt. to make a decision on the AMT bill and the IRS to program their computers and update their forms and then send it to the tax prep companies who need to turn it around into software upates for their systems. This could mean a disapointing Q1 on the revenue side. From a long time lurker.

storhund,

I think the biggest potential for upside surprise is new cheap funding without dilution. The meat of the conf call should be the Q&A. Analysts are very anxious to quiz the company and the latest 10Q.

Things just don't add up. Have a great weekend everyone.

If there are members who live in the Tucson area and know about duplicate bridge clubs/games etc in the area and could provide me with information on same would be appreciated.

My wife, who is an AVID player, and I are going to spend a fair amount of time there over the winter and early spring.

TIA

Gold and Oil Stocks
by Greg Silberman CFA

Credit Crunch & Current Gold Prices

Gold is truly the schizophrenic of the investment world. The worse the market looks, the better the fundamentals underlying Gold and the harder Gold and Gold Stocks sell off.

Let’s start with the fundamentals:

Yields on 10yr notes rising quicker than 3 month bills

• The Yield Curve continues to widen as short rates come down faster than long term rates - investors are rushing to the safety of short term treasuries:

This is a sign of an economic slowdown - lower inflation is forcing long bonds rates down but Fed induced short rates are coming down quicker in order to stimulate the economy. This is Bullish for Gold as it causes speculators to borrow short and lend long i.e. the money supply increases.

Credit Spreads as measured by the performance of treasury vs. investment bonds have widened significantly

• Credit Spreads have continued to widen. So much for rate cuts supporting the market. Widening Credit Spreads are an indication of a flight to quality. Investors are moving to the safety of Government Bonds and away from lower rated debt e.g. Corporate and Mortgage paper. A flight to safety is good for Gold.

Gold outperforms against economically sensitive industrial metals during a slowdown

• And finally Gold has trumped industrial metals indicating a slowdown is benefiting Gold over economically sensitive industrial metals.

So what’s wrong? If the indicators are so bullish, why the sell off in Gold Stocks?

Gold Stocks are stocks after all and will be impacted by the general market sell off. However, the main reason behind the sell off is a stronger Dollar. The Gold market is grappling with the fact that lower foreign interest rates are causing the US Dollar to rally.

We are of the opinion that the US Dollar is in a long term Bear market. It is politically acceptable to let the Dollar fall and keep the stock market levitated rather than visa-versa. As we’ve seen over the months, a falling Dollar has supported asset markets (including Gold) through lower interest rates. That said, based on the monthly picture and our Fibonacci projections, we think the current down leg in the Dollar has further to go

Based on our Fibonacci projections we feel the Dollar will rebound to resistance at 80 and then reverse lower to make an intermediate low of 65 towards the end of 2008.

Gold Stocks and the stock market will struggle for the rest of the year (New York Stock Exchange on the Edge) as the Dollar rallies. Then, sometime in January, Gold Stocks will lift off the floor along with the Stock market and begin discounting the next down leg in the Dollar (probably before the Dollar makes its correction high of 80).

When the Dollar finally makes new lows Gold Stocks particularly the Juniors will be flying!

Aboot PNP:

Pinetree was an especially good buy once the bull market got going, with really spectacular returns. But they got caught up in the base metals and uraniums and have not recovered. Imo, a good sign for a progressive move by them would to re-assess their exposure to base metals and become a pure gold play.

Another take on the US Housing Market

http://tinyurl.com/2mv2os

What if there are others from other countries????

Occam....

Bot 2m PAL 3.55 today. What ya think?

Housing market: Same story, except you extend it to every housing market throughout the world.

UK housing market said to be on the ropes, although we have lots of reportage in the papers about record prices. TSE Capped Real Estate Index peaked in Feb, 2007 and important business confidence cycle date peak for markets, though we have continued to read about record housing starts and prices in the Toronto area.

Quick noob question...where can I find volumes of options traded on a given stock?

test

Reenzo:

This will bring you to a page within Optionetics.com

http://tinyurl.com/32y5p9

Neither Timminco or Sandvine made the cut today on the TSX Indice, although Western Goldfields was added to the Mining and Gold subindexes.

Re: Timminco and Sandvine - meant to add this link:
http://tinyurl.com/22pkn5

Suicide in age group 30-54 up 20% for males. Just caught it on the evening news. Any explanation? Perhaps denial of "american dream" BS. Frustration, inabality to provide for self and family. The usual gastalt reasons for suicide. Very sad.
We have a culture that views easy success on the TV every night and goes to bed wondering, why not us? How have I failed? No wonder the statistic.
I am looking at aussie/kaimu recommendation GIX.V up as other PM's sink. Also, GBN, WGW, ROY, and for that matter even the bark, bark KRY up.
I am also wondering whether the penny uglies are a little bit insulated from PM market take downs simply because they are largely un-owned by the funds and big boys who will need to dump to cover other obligations. Oh, and they already are beaten up.
This isn't a question that begs an answer, since we shall all have the answer in the next "take down". It is more a point of conversation.
Any thoughts?

RobBoss, the tinyURL didn't redirect properly. Can you repost?

Thank you!

LOL, nevermind! My brain reactivated and I just went to....wait for it... DUH, Optionetics.com!!!

heheh, have a great weekend!

2nd,
I posted about MarkM's NYLOW chart and how it was about to breakthrough the 50 DMA on the daily, which it did today on a rising RSI.

http://tinyurl.com/2f78g9

Hopefully, this next chart will work, which is the weekly of NYLOW. When you stand back and see it from a distance it's even more convincing and indicative of when the market turned negative. Also shows moving through 200/50 DMA on the weekly pretty decisively and note rising lows and retests of previous mkt lows.
Rising lows shows progressively failing rallies.

Nice chart for bears.

http://tinyurl.com/7ygy2

If it doesn't work, use the last link, change the time to weekly, and chart type to solid line. It will give you the same chart.

I have no idea how that happened. The second link is junk.

But, this is a good look, so use the first link, which worked for me, and change the timeframe to weekly and chart type to solid line and update the chart.

This is important as it clearly shows the longterm trend Bill has been telling us about going back to October 06 on this chart.

At least that's my take on it.

Thanks DaveM, I saw that, I am a little confused with the dates and the subindexes:

http://tinyurl.com/yoqfbx Mentions a UBS report, changes to be announced Dec 21. Mentions SVC.

BTW, Sprott spoke highly of both companies (TIM and SVC) today.

indptrader - yes, that does happen. Many times in the form of a spread of some kind.

Someone asked where Bill has been, can't seem to find the comment. Obviously Bill has been hanging out with his buddy on his boat. They're wearing their Bahamian blue and yellow shorts, soaking up the sun while drinking Kaliks and discussing Formula One Racing. Just kidding. His dental work plus computer issues have slowed him down recently. I'm sure that we will hear more of him in the near future.

Re: Foreigners buying US Real Estate

We may see more global investors (especially in Asia and the Middle East) look seriously at U.S. real estate. But in a fire sale, buyers cut a hard deal.

It could also make sense for retirees to buy in the U.S. However, I would not expect much immigration from working folk unless the jobs become as plentiful as the houses.

ALOHA !!

Isaiah64v4 ... When I have time I am going to whip out my Bible and look up you handle! Yes, I do WHIP IT OUT on occassion ...

Awhile back when I was saying POG would tank, which I am still waiting for, I also said that other countries would not allow the US Peso to devalue without taking action. They are taking action now and have been. Don't ever forget every country in the world has a fiat currency and they all inflate and die in the end and it does not matter what name they use even a EURO! The Euro is for all intensive purposes nothing more than a German Mark ... Its all paper and they're all beholding to the same old fiat banks that have had this circus rigged since we got off the gold standard back in 1913!

Why is the DOW afloat while the US Peso tanks? The infinitely wise leaders of our are trying their best to get out of a BIG MESS their predecessors handed them. Bush unwisely got into Iraq thinking it was a six month "in-n-out" and he made a big mistake on behalf of Israel and oil. Had that have happened like he planned then he would be able to face the baby-boomer tsunami head on. Now both the two party aristocracy are in a fight to blame each other for the upcoming catastrophe. If they let the DOW tank then they will have a "walker riot" on their hands because the baby-boomers need two things to retire ...

1) Their 401ks/IRAs to be solvent
2) Their SSN checks

Without solvent retirement plans the US welfare rolls would be swamped. If these promises are not kept there will be hell to pay for the Reps and Dems. Also remember the younger workers are watching all this unfold and if the US government defaults on the baby-boomers then all confidence is gone and there will be "walker riots" along side "MickieD riots"! It is easier from a political standpoint to tank the US Peso than to raise interest rates and cut off SSN benefits and credit. Our leaders can always blame foreigners for the US Peso problems. Now the real estate crunch and the US Bank Greed-A-Thon is on us ... To me it is a PERFECT STORM and something these elites are very deserving of. In the end the US economy will get steam rolled, we'll have a NAU and a new currency like the Euro that I call the BOZO and we'll all be living in a Third World existance! If these guys pull it off most Americans will be thanking them for saving them from total serfdom and Communist Rule ...

Rigdon ... The moral corruption in the financial sector and the suicides are all tied to "fiat currency". With fiat you have no standards to measure and without standards you can never plan for the future. When a Nation adopts "consumming" and "debt" as the basis for its economic future then suicides will continue to rise.

How many here have enough in their stock portfolio to pay off their debt(like credit cards and car loans)but don't because you believe you will get rich faster with your stocks? How many here are now using debt to gamble in the markets(line of credit or margin)? How many here would default on at least one loan if you lost your job tomorrow? How many people here work for a company that depends on either US, State or local governments to survive? How many people here would vote for Ron Paul if he wasn't running on a platform to end your government or bank job? When you get honest and look in the mirror there aren't too many Americans who can point fingers at anyone other than themselves!

So this is the future our kids will own ... Welcome to the USSA!

I love beaten up juniors and tanking GOLD!

BMD- 5 block trades in the 0.89-0.93 range...

14:52:20 0.89 11300
14:52:20 0.89 19700
13:39:51 0.8803 15000
10:37:40 0.93 16500
10:04:22 0.93 13100

total 75600

should find out in a few days whether insiders were involved...

Hello all, as an option wannabe, is there a net worth minimum? Do you make those purchases/trades on the online brokers and what are the fees in general?. Thanks for any insight
peace from north puget sound
Gray

Kaimu,

I whipped out my Google:

Isaiah 64:4 (King James Version)
King James Version (KJV)

4For since the beginning of the world men have not heard, nor perceived by the ear, neither hath the eye seen, O God, beside thee, what he hath prepared for him that waiteth for him.

johojo

Huhh?

Who makes motorcycle helmets for sale in Vietnam?

They have 21 million motorcyclists and just passed a helmet law.

craig- let me know if/when you find out ;)

2nd, 6:30 on a Saturday morning....like me you must be the life of the late night parties! I nodded-off last night at about 9 and can't sleep past 5:30 for the life of me.

I'll bet most of this community could put together a heck of a sleep/no sleep study.

craig- have always been an early riser (and having a 5 year old helps to get us to bed early also)->will usually take a walk by the San Andreas Reservoir before dawn, then either to work or breakfast...partying->only parties we do are birthdays/family get-togethers, with three kids (well, 2 kids and an adult now), prefer a good book/movie/hiking/travel/basketball+soccer with the kids...unfortunate the older two don't care for road trips, hoping the youngest will be able to accompany us to all 48 states on the back roads at some point...maybe even to an island in the northwest ;)

Anyone following NBIX. Awhile ago I posted some info on this drug company and thought it might be a good trade. However, based on the market conditions at the time I decided not to trade this stock, but had it on my watch list.

Basically, they orginally had been refused FDA approval for their insomnia medication. However, they had resubmitted their claim with further info the FDA was requesting. This info was contained in a 2nd drug study the company conducted over the spring/summer.

Thursday, the FDA sent a letter to the company requesting more information and hence the stock dropped by over 50%.

What amazes me is the drug was not approved eventhough the company completed the extra study to answer the FDA intial concerns. The FDA sent a request back to the company saying they now want info on the use of this drug in the elderly, and pregnant women.

Things I learned by watching this stock. The stock was orginally at $60 and dropped to around $9. During Novemeber the stock move to $14 on expectation of a positive report from the FDA. What I thought was weird is about two weeks before the FDA anouncement the stock drops to $12. I would of expected two things to happen to this stock, one the share price would of moved above $14, and I would not of expected the share price to drop before the announcement by the FDA.

Basically, the slow movement in share price was telling me that insitutions were not buying this stock. In addition, the stock had obtained an additional 1.4M shares short. I wonder how much info got leaked from the FDA. So, "Follow the money flow"

Ben Bernanke will save the world, but first we bleed
Posted by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard on 14 Dec 2007 at 12:48

The Bernanke 'Put' has expired.

http://tinyurl.com/yon58g

Craig,

RE: Motorcycle Helmets in Vietnam

Ten helmet brands meeting the new safety standard are Amoro, Protec, HSL, Hitech, Xanaha SuZuKi, Honda, Azura, Sankyo, Amono and Moto.

Since September 21, helmets failing to meet safety standards have been destroyed.

Vietnam has 37 helmet producers, including 10 businesses which have their product brand registered.

Helmet manufacturers estimate market demand at about 40 million helmets. With local helmets averaging nearly 10 USD, expected revenue would be nearly US$400 million. However, another estimate ranges to US$600 million because many imported helmets range from $25 to $30 to over $140.

Moneygenie -

Interesting post one end of the Bernanke put, but why the unquestioning confidence that ultimately the Central Banks can reflate?

Krugman questioned yesterday (NYTimes) whether liquidity can really address issues of SOLVENCY.

Japan's two decades of no-growth deflation (while bad debts sat on banks' balance sheets)are a preoccupying case!

I think the outcome depends upon how large the the losses turn out to be. And they will remain hidden for as long as the losers can hide them!

Dear Bill and Everyone,

Here I am back at the westport library. I want to relate to you all my experience last week. Going into the Fed meeting I could see that the charts of some of the miners were looking good. Gammon, poking up through the 20 day. ANO (thanks, Kaimu) which I bought 2 Friday's ago cheap, and which rallied nicely into the meeting. Hell, even my Gasco was a performer. By the way, a good portion of the money I trade now was grubstaked to me by another trader/friend of mine and going into December I felt I needed to compensate for a fairly uneventful November. (I know what you're thinking...Uh-oh!) Well, eventful is exactly what I got. All my stocks rallied. TGB. ANO. GRS. I had loaded up the boat in advance of a nice big rate cut for Christmas. And the problem is, I was making money. Tons of it. I was finally really powering on into strength in a way I'd always intended. You know. Adding to winners instead of selling them. I needed a big, parabolic upmove in gold to come out of this meeting.

Never need anything in the stock market, you won't get it. In addition, I was so goshdarn in love with my need to make $ on this trade (and the fact that all 5 postions were all nicely profitable didn't help) and suffice to say, when Ben did his little cut i didn't react properly, in a manner in which you all have come to expect from me. Instead of dumping it all, I held on like a dumb____ and basically watched all my profit disappear and, tragically, and I am ashamed of myself for this, part of October's gains also. It was so bad I briefly contemplated returning to a life of crime as a salesman.

Bottom line, this market sucks like Bill says. I think of myself as being so cynical and yet, I haven't really been a natural short seller even though I've known to and I'm also ashamed about that. My lesson that I'm trying to draw is, I'm returning to my old self a little bit. The stock market is no place for honest money, and if Americans knew the wild gyrations their 401-K's do while they are working like sheep they would be a lot less sanguine about this matter. As for me, I know never to fall in love, and I do. Falling in love with ideas is the worst of all. Especially the idea of being long in a stock market that clearly looks like it will not exceed it's prior highs, will probably break trend and begin the long-awaited bear.

Have a great week. I hope i do but I'm not sure how yet.

Your friend Christian Hunter

shark attack...feel the pain as I have done likewise..when I project personal hope over market reality. Its a human problem, not a market problem...they were lots of sellers on wednesday..so everyone else is wrong..? MArkets are impersonal...hope you find a quick remedial program..and learn the important lesson of trading personal beliefs vs. market realities. Didnt the stops trigger?