Moin from Germany,

here comes a real "shocker"

ADP Employer Services Says U.S. Added 189,000 Jobs in November

Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Companies in the U.S. added 189,000 jobs in November, more than economists had forecast, a private report based on payroll data showed today.

The increase followed a revised estimate of 119,000 new jobs in October, more than previously calculated, ADP Employer Services said.

Job and wage growth have so far helped limit declines in consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the economy. Companies filling more orders from overseas may be reluctant to lose workers even as a deepening recession in housing drags down economic grow this quarter.

``There has been little to indicate that the labor market has deteriorated noticeably in November,'' Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut, said before the report. A steady job market would be ``a signal that the economy is muddling through, rather than tumbling into recession.''

The ADP report was forecast to show an increase of 50,000, according to the median estimate of 22 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Estimates ranged from 10,000 to 100,000.

It will be fun to see how the markets will react to this news....

The 50 point cut should be off the table right now....

Updated Cara 100 Report:

Upgrade:

TGP - to Buy @ Citigroup

Downgrade:

ERTS - to Hold @ Kaufman Bros.

------------------------------------------------

New Zack's Research Report on Telefonica,S.A. (TEF):

http://tinyurl.com/2femwx

Regards

Moore Capital Management Inc.'s Canadian hedge-fund unit, run by former Amaranth Advisors LLC traders, lost 15 percent in November on stock and convertible- bond bets, two people with knowledge of the firm said.

The Toronto-based unit, which managed $1 billion before the decline, opened a year ago to invest money for other Moore funds. It is overseen by Manos Vourkoutiotis, whom the New York- based firm hired after Amaranth collapsed in September 2006.

http://tinyurl.com/35afyj

Even in manufacturing, construction, and financial services, sectors where employment has been under downward pressure, there are signs of accelerating employment. ( from adp report )

Seems far fetched to believe these sectors are ramping up -

Might not have the opportunity to add PDA to Cara Global 100

Kraft negotiates to buy Brazil's Perdigao - report

http://tinyurl.com/2qoscp

In @ 50.78 this morning’s premarket

That ADP report has sent futures soaring (btw, they were up significantly before the release). So we have strong economy again?

Good grief.

It's incredible. Economists are really no better at predicting things than weathermen. Worse, actually.

Moin Number2son,

the ADP report is really a surprise and out of context with almost every other data out there during the past few weeks and months.

The real message comes from the bond market. The 10 year is only up 5 points.....

You would expect some kind of a selling panic....

I assume they are also seeing this as a short blip

ALOHA !!

Don't forget that the construction industry will be soaring because of all those San Diego homes that need to be rebuilt after the fire! But after paying out those claims the insurance industry will be laying off workers!

I am not sure how it is the financial sector would be gaining jobs unless there is some rule where only layoffs must be reported to the media and not new hires!

Manufacturing ... hummmm ... are they counting foreign US corporation new hires in China and India? I hear Haliburton in Dubai is hiring! Is Dubai the USA?

I rather think that the new hires in "manufacturing" are a result of the US government's "manufacturing of false data"! US data is suspect at best just like the US Peso ...

GOVERNMENT IS ONLY AS HONEST AS ITS MONEY ...

Ok, got the message. Adding SKYPE right now. Since I post from Greece, European Goldfields (EGU)seems quite strong right now. Thinking about adding some. They operate mainly out of Greece and they trade in LSX & TSX.

Where is everyone..?

CIBC DOWNGRADES C:

High LTV mortgage loans is the greatest risk pool of U.S. consumer loans, and Citigroup (NYSE:C) has the single highest exposure to it. CIBC estimates that C will incur losses on such loans of $4-6.5 billion in 2008, or 31% to 51% of its 3Q07 total loss reserve. Accordingly, they are again lowering their estimates.

Firm's 2008 EPS estimate is now $2.95, down almost 10% from our prior estimate and nearly 30% below consensus. They believe downside for C is under $30 or 2-2.5x $11.70 estimate for tangible book value.

CIBC continues to rate Citigroup Sector Underperformer. Trading at 11x 2008 EPS estimate, shares are expensive, in firm's opinion, given that in the early 1990s, a troubled C traded as low as 7x forward EPS estimates.

kaimu writes, "Is Dubai the USA?"

I find that a very interesting question?

I am still dealing with the questions:

1. How much money is on the sidelines?

2. Who has it?

3. Where is it?

4. What are they going to do with it?

"Is Dubai the USA?"

I am trying to "follow the money." (Deepthroat)

I bet a large percentage of the November numbers are part-time, minimum wage, seasonal jobs that will disappear after the holidays.

So...They rally the market on the hopes of a rate cut, now rally the market with no hope of a rate cut, but employment numbers that are readjusted more than bank interest rates...I see the LOGIC...

I think it's buy the rumor sell the news...Good news is good news Bad news is good news...

Spin Spin Spin...Still Dancin...

FYI: This morning I put in a market order for 100 shares of UXG about 30 seconds after the market opened. The Bid/Ask shown on Scottrade was something like $2.94/$2.98. A full 3 minutes later my order was filled at $3.25 and the Bid/Ask was, at that time, about $3.08/$3.10.

Bill has been a great advocate for the rights of the little People. Here is one more example of how the little people can be screwed by those that run the market. I've never actually had first hand experience with this sort of crap -- but I learned a valuable lesson this morning: ALWAYS buy with limit orders. For stop losses I still hold that it should be at market.

Luckily, in the heat of the moment I had entered my order for 100 shares instead of the 1000 that I had intended. So there is no real pain felt here.

Aloha Kaimu,
ADP is a private report, but they are no better than the government in determining employment.

It wasn't long ago they completely blew their credibility when they issued another skewed report where even the government numbers were closer.

The market is telling the passengers of the Titanic to head to the bar and order another drink, don't worry, it's unsinkable....

Maybe this is the BEARS Problem...

Welcome to the month of December in the stock market. Decembers tend to be bullish months overall but Decembers in pre-election years have been especially bullish. Over the past 40 years, Decembers in pre-election years have been up 8 of 10 times with the largest loss being 1.3% in 1983 and the largest gain being 9.5% in 1991. The average gain has been 3.9% which represents an annualized gain of greater than 58%— not bad!"

FXP: adding at 66.60
MU: Sold yesterday's buy at 9.20

WAG rebounding from recent sell-off. Daily RSI7 rising this morning from @ 18 level to 24.07 now.

No position.

Gold is now more precious than ever
By Russell Hotten
Last Updated: 11:31am GMT 05/12/2007

Demand still outstrips supply, but with the era of easy exploration gone, investors switch focus to mergers and acquisitions
Roman Abramovich's investment in Highland Gold Mining underlines that the precious metal is becoming more precious by the month. Gold is increasingly hard to find, but the demand for gold companies is strong.

http://tinyurl.com/299rgm

The strong payroll report is good news, so is the productivity. ANd I thought that the rate cut priced in for dec 11 was good news. Which one is good news, or is everything good news? Coverd half of my short position, the only bad news anywhere to be seen.

Kaimu: "Is Dubai in the USA?"
OMG, I am seriously laughing my ass off (which is probably a good thing after all the hol;iday food I have been eating!) Thanks for the laugh

re: Skype
Its blocked by my company's internet filter, heheh. Have to check it out tonight at home.

SiO2 & Bill:
Regarding testing the new developments, I will be in Asia next month with overnights in six different cities. If it would add any value, I will be happy to test connections and report back my experience. If you would like me to do so, please email me at reenzo@yahoo.com

Gold Futures:
I find it interesting that now that I get streaming quotes from Optionsxpress, the nunmbers we are watching for the price of gold is based on 172 contracts traded so far this morning on December gold. 87 contracts so far in January.

Wall Street firms subpoenaed by N.Y.: report
Prosecutors seeking information on debt tied to high-risk mortgages.

Cuomo is accusing lenders and brokers of inflating the value of properties to secure larger loans and said that he has "e-mail evidence" of banks seeking out "friendly appraisers" who would overestimate property values.

http://tinyurl.com/2h5xja

ALOHA !!

Look who is sneaking into the "junior explorer" sector!!! None other than those grand ROTHSCHILDS of the banking empire fame! Is that all they can afford is $20mil? Times must be tough ever since they gave up their seat on the LME gold exhange a few years ago! Look what they are "reduced" to! JUNIORS !!! HA !!!

Just so happens they are moving into the HD GROUP here!!! Hummmm ... I own FAN.V also! Can this be good?

READ ON:

FARALLON ANNOUNCES SIGNING OF BRIDGE FACILITY LOAN AGREEMENT

December 3, 2007, Vancouver, BC – Dick Whittington, President and CEO of Farallon Resources Ltd. (“Farallon”
or “the Company”) (TSX:FAN; OTCBB: FRLLF), is pleased to announce that the Company and London, UK-based
N M Rothschild & Sons Limited (“Rothschild”) have signed a US$20 million Bridge Facility Loan Agreement that
would be used for further pre-development of the high grade G-9 deposit at the Company’s Campo Morado Project
polymetallic (zinc, copper, gold, silver, lead) project in Guerrero State, Mexico.

basketguy:

"Welcome to the month of December in the stock market..."

What is the source of your info.?

ouch sadleb...sorry to hear to hear it was you. i saw the high of the day at 3.25 but never saw the bid/ask anywhere near that. fido had it at 3.14-3.18 range in premarket though, so scottrade seemed to be inaccurate. two lessons, btw...use a limit, and don't buy on the open with stocks like that. good luck!

Sorry Golfer...

I meant to add that

Peter Eliades' Stockmarket Cycles

Here is a chart which should answer the question: Where is all the money coming from? "Dark pools" "sidelines" Its all money that was invested some 30 years ago in the form of long term bonds which is about to come to maturity:

Yahoo Finance chart of the 30 year bond:

http://tinyurl.com/35kggp

(best in widescreen)

Its effect will be to support bond prices while yields decline. Short term yields will also decline as the rich man's panic becomes widespread. Whatever is real in the economy will remain important but everything else gets the test. It could very well be that markets derive their support from this flow of capital in maturing long term bonds.

Its positive for the $US, but that does not mean that gold will suffer inverse losses to dollar gains. Bullion prices should track the yield curve from 1977 - 1982 on the way up.

Right now, its a currencies game with the various currency pairs and bullion working in the inverse to the $US.

I'd wager this chart is the influential chart in the long term. Its only unfortunate that it goes back to 1977, but my guess is that it corresponds to whats been going on.

UNG- adding back 20% at 35.17
BMD- back in at 1.12 (last friday's bid puts it back in play, IMO)
FXP- adding 20% at 66.50...

(will be at meetings remainder of the morning)

good luck to all...;)

Everything I know is wrong.

What subprime crisis?

What economic slowdown?

I will now faithfully worship Larry Kudlow.

:^)

Seamus:
Kraft says it's NOT in talks with PDA....

Alright Bill Hunter Has gone mad...

Is there anyone out there that can save him:^)

Bill if your are turning to the darkside, then it is sure over for us Bears..

ALOHA !!

sadleb ... There are circumstances where a "market" order is appropriate. I learned that the hard way back in the dotcom/fibre days. I would miss out on the high fliers like the heydays of LINUX and GLOBAL CROSSING and JUNIPER and about 10 others!

I used a "market" order when I first bought into UXG back when it was trading under the symbol USGL. I was filled at $0.72USD while I recall a blogger on that day said he never got filled because he used a "limit" order. Once the price runs past your limit price you're done unless you keep chasing the price with higher limits! You get filled faster with a "market" order so that is good for a "FAST" moving price where you know the objective is to just "get in" ASAP! On that first day buying USGL(UXG)I ended up with over a 100% gain once markets closed! You have to judge the enthusiasm or it can be dangerous.

I would never use a "market" order under any other circumstance, therefore it is rare that I use "market" orders.

From horses mouth.

Option One (HRB) has a nice chart showing it preference to lend out ARMs vs fixed.

Product Mix
http://tinyurl.com/276ttc

Delinquencies
http://tinyurl.com/ywhdsq

I sold my RIMM puts for a nice gain and am still holding the HRB puts. Mainly in cash and trying to figure out the direction we're headed now. FXP does look pretty tempting hitting it's 52 week low today. How long can China keep cranking with it's biggest customer on the ropes? I may just have to stay on the sidelines for a few days. Good luck out there.

Rob.

Thanks for the charts. I still firmly believe HRB will report some very bad news on the 11th, and I think the markets will start tanking that day as well no matter what the FED does. I sold my RIMM puts this aM for a nice gain so I mainly in cash now with only the HRB puts. I can't get a clear read on market direction so I'll probably sit on the sidelines for a few days. Good luck out there.

Rob.

basketguy and FranSix:

Thanks for the replies.

Sorry for the double post. I got caught with the error screen.

Rob.

Leisha:

....get well soon.

FXP:
Not exactly a 52 wk low...it hasn't been around 52 wks.

FXI has been as high as 128 or so, so don't be mislead by today's low for FXP.

anyone have some thoughts on wellcare..symbol wcg? thanks

NYUgrad,

Does 30 day delinquent by vintage year chart indicate that there is a pop in 2000 delinquencies, with over 25% currently past due 30 days?

Why 2000? Prime rate was higher back then.

http://www.moneycafe.com/library/prime.htm

Interesting info... the last chart is a bit scary.

ALOHA !!

Seamus ... JUST AN FYI ... The Gates Foundation donated some $30mil to the Svalbard Global Seed Bank ... some call the "doomsday" seed bank. Created to save seeds in the event there is some global catastrophe!

Link: http://tinyurl.com/32q2l8

Also I have been looking into "algae biofuels" ... produced at Algal Farms. Perfect substitute for corn ethanol. Unlimited algae especially at coastal regions. Top name I have come up with in that field is a company named GreenFuel. It is a private company with some big backing from venture capital!

Kaimu,
And to store genetic diversity being lost to hybrids.

Much of the foundation stock for our hybrids has been lost. As we all know (LOL) hybrids don't reproduce. So they are banking much of this genetic material for several reasons, one big one being the ability to breed more resistant hybrid varieties (to make huge profits from).

Lots of buying in solar stocks today. This happened several weeks ago. Be careful as these stocks are volatile.

Long ESLR (but hedged with covered calls).

Also, it's looking bad for shorts today as the major indexes have broken above important short-term resistance.

News out that factory orders for non-durables were stronger than expected.

Kaimu,
Another alternative to market orders is to set ones limit order above the market so that the MM is unable to give you a fill above that limit price that one has sent. If you get the market fill below your limit order that is a benefit. At least one gets in without a crappy fill.

PDA

Craig thx. My understanding is Kraft was in talks with some pension funds (incl. Brazilian funds) to gain support and not with PDA. PDA has spurned offfers in the past and I'm not sure the Board is that receptible. Could drive the price higher.

That said ("on the other hand") I exited @ 51.50 as the stock is oversold and this is a skittish market. PDA doesn't usually have a lot of volume. It has big spreads which doesn't lend itself to setting reasonable stops. After a big market sell-off, it could be a pretty good longer term play if it's still available.

Maintaining lot of cash on sidelines.

FXP/FXI: Sorry, meant FXI has been as high as 218.

I wish to thank all the Skype participants yesterday, it was a sea of emails and chat messages for me but it was fun. Comments will be streamed again today via Skype, starting now. If you wish to participate, please send a Skype chat message to user nexalogic.

Now to figure out this talk about PDA and Kraft.

As expected HRB pps remains strong $19.83, but very weak volume. The put option prices are slowly coming down.

kaimu Thanks for the info. I’ve read about the seed bank before up there on the Norwegian Island. Actually not a bad idea considering mankind seems to screw things up from time to time. The “Black Swan” out of nowhere incident. Craig’s right about the genetic diversity.

Corn is certainly not the best ethanol. Algae looks like a great alternative winner. There’s also other grasses under study. Soybean ethanol is also better play than corn and a winner in Brazil from what I understand.

First snow of the season here in Chicago.

Re: International stocks

[Edited repost from late Monday night, FWIW]

Singapore-listed blue chips

Three companies with dominant positions in their industries, aggressive management and global ambitions:

Singapore Airlines
Singapore Telecom
Keppel Corp. (marine, offshore, property dev't)

Not recommendations, no positions held.

I had quite a start this morning when I fired up my IB TWS platform to see the Feb GC gold contract up $116.00! Then saw it was only trading just above $800. Still shows up $118.00 from a close of $686.40. That would have been a nice fill to have bought contracts at $686.40!

ALOHA !!

stktrader ... That works so long as you are getting split second bid/ask info and have a good feel for order flows on heavy volume. I have tried that method and when prices and trades move super fast that is no 100% guarantee, but it does work. Also if you are trying to trade on news like ROB POWER being CEO of USGL, which was announced after the market closed the prior day then you are forced to trade close to the market open. I have found under those circumstances that bid/ask quotes are highly unreliable within the first 1/2 hour or so due to the extreme volumes and frequency of trades. Had I have waited for things to settle down I would have been filled over $1USD that day and lost a 40%-60% gain! Again you have to judge such circumstances for yourself. I have used "market" orders under extreme conditions and have found it worked quite well and even better than "limit" guessing! A missed guess can lose you 20% and if you have a "budget" in mind prior to buying you can be forced to either take less shares or stay out all together. Literally I have seen prices move so fast that within a couple minutes my window is gone! I recall that happened to me on a George Gilder stock where I was ready to click the mouse and before I could click it was out of range!

Thats my take ...

franklin like those Singapore companies also.

On my Singapore list from a longer term viewpoint:

financial--United Overseas Bank (UEVOY)but NOT at this time with all the CDO and SIV spread throughout the world.

Also like Hyflux (HYFXF)which is a water purification play throughout Asia.

Think both of these may trade better on the Singapore exchange (which has real time quotes during the night) than thru the ADRs.

NOT a Recommendation. Do your DD. No current positions.

Perhaps someone from Singapore can add more insight.

Any one see William Seiderman yesterday, or so, on cspan. He talked about what applies from the s&l crisis. Optimistic but says the tell is solvency of the likes of fredie mac...and that optimism is more solid once the junk starts getting sold. Optimism based on homes are still worth something and that auditors by culture mark down the whole thing. I know he's with cnbc but the guy has gravitas. One of the "old ones" ...can not help but respect

Golfer, here is a link to average returns for every trading day of the year:
http://www.cxoadvisory.com/calendar/

For deeper analysis re election years and cycles, you might want to pick up a copy of the "stock traders almanac"
http://www.stocktradersalmanac.com

I dont get a new copy each year, but I do reference it...

Seamus,
The microcap food stocks have been exploding. Too many small and mid cap doing the same. I'm waiting for the price to come to me, but it's tough.

NYUgrad:

Tx for the heads up on the HRB situation.
I noticed yesterday's blog discussion just after I had read that the HRB/OptionOne 'deal' was off.

I too was/am surprised that HRB's share price is holding up.

I wonder if it's because the HRB share ownership is so heavily institutional...apparently 93%+ institutional/mutual fund ownership. GoldmanSachs (12million + shares) and their ilk are not going to just dump them, are they?

Anyway, I did some quick 'to do' diligence...and I believe the HRB price is going down. I would have shorted the shares; but I am prepared to hold for a while and I don't want to pay dividends. So, yesterday, late in the day, I bought leaps - Jan09 - deep in the money. I'm learning that option selections with high delta and lots of time are working for me.

Btw, I believe that Cerberus also took a 51% interest in GMAC when it was spun off. I expect the Cerberus players are hugely relieved to be out of this one.

regards

joey

Boston Group released it's list of Global 100 companies: http://tinyurl.com/2juwmc It says that since 2004 these companies have grown at 3X the rate of S&P500.

China has 41 companies, India has 20, Brazil has 13 companies in there, including of course Sadia and Perdigao.

Perdigao also denies the Kraft deal. http://www.estadao.com.br/economia/not_eco90871,0.htm (in portuguese).

However, I think it's only a matter of time until some big company attempts to buy either Perdigao or Sadia. This would be unfortunate for the Brazilians, the government may not approve such a deal. I think these are strategic assets for the future given the expected food shortages.

TimG:

Thanks for the links.

Jasper:

FWIW

I have noticed the same kind of action with the smallcaps I either own or watch...volume and in most cases price are starting to increase

Fido intraday pivot point on DJI (based on 10-minute chart) is 13,432.71. Now @ 13,435. Let's see whether the little red down arrow has any predictive value.

Midday Update to Cara 100:

Upgrade:

ATVI - to Buy @ Janco Partners

Coverage Resumed:

DELL - Buy @ Needham & Co.

Old Goat..
What is Fido?
Thanks

sadleb at December 5, 2007 9:53 AM

Re USG order fill

Sorry to hear that, been there done that. I see a few others posted on some of the various options for entering orders, with which I agree.

I got into this a few years ago on the Toronto exchange, wrote my broker & the exchange and received information on exactly what happened with the execution of my order.

I used to think all orders were just time stamped and processed in that order, well you have to read the regulations for the exchange you are trading on, it actually gets quite complicated. Orders between the same broker, between different brokers, orders with conditions, market orders, matching share # orders, board lot & odd lot orders, partial fill orders carried over, etc etc.

Its in the details and when things get fast with wide spreads, the data we see is several seconds or minutes old and not whats actually happening now, or what will be happening when your order actually gets to the front of the line.

If you have the time it makes for some interesting research over the holidays.

Fido = Fidelity

More GOOD NEWS

MBI;;;

moody's said that a capital shortfall at mbia is 'somewhat likely' ; will make final decision in 2 weeks
dropped stock from $35 to $30 in a heartbeat

Market coming off highs pretty fast here...

Wonder if this MBIA news has anything to do with it?

MBIA...May loose triple AAA rating...

ROH ROH...If they loose there AAA rating all kinds of other stuff Will blow up.

NOT GOOD...

HRB is 93% owned by financial institutions and widely held in mutual fund portfolios.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/mh?s=HRB

Not sure why i didnt see this before, but this could be the reason why there hasnt been a massive selloff. Too many shares to unload and no one to buy. and HRB borrowed to keep their dividend.

But once this sucker breaks i foresee a large gap down if material bad news is released or moodys and zacks downgrade their debt.

just putting this out there- ? time for day-trades coming to an end-> (over)due for a major sell-off? not sure, but finished with buying ultra-shorts on weakness->additions to a full position will have to be on strength...targeting FXI 165-170QQQQ 48-49/EEM 142-145 for sales...

As Bill has said, it's about solvency.

Moody's is saying they (MBIA) is insolvent....IE: bankrupt.

No problem though, keep buying. "We suggest kicking the tires on the financials here"
Oh, and don't forget to buy a few of the home builders.

Lunatics.

basketguy, golfer, TimG:

You can find the December performances of
S&P, Dow, Nasdaq at

http://tinyurl.com/2yltxw

My blog is in German, but this post is
simply a table of numbers.

General Electric (GE) reiterated by Deutsche Securities. Reiterated rating Buy.

...and noth'n moving price....lots of resistance...foreboding

rest of the mkt though does not look too bad just a little steam being let out from overbought in the day...i'd say the rally keeps going until the music stops....how's that for thinking ahead.

David yesterday December 4, 2007 8:10 PM

Re: UXG options
"... For example, today I sold 30 contracts of June 2008 puts on UXG at the strike price of $2.50, getting $0.75 for each options. If UXG falls below $2.50 and the buyer decides to execute the puts, I will have to buy 3000 shares of UXG at $2.50. However, since I have earned $0.75 per share today, I will effectively pay $1.75 per share……"

Yes this strategy seems interesting, don't use options a lot but always trying to learn more. Just wondering what your strategy is to conserve capital if this trade goes against you, ie how would you monitor it and how would you close it out.

If UXG stays above $2.50 you keep the premium, if say its just below $2.50 at exp then you buy at $2.50 strike with basis at $1.75, still good.

If the price in June is $1.75 you get put at $2.50, basis $1.75 just sell the stock, out even.

However between now and June the puts erode time value with no intrinsic value until the price drops below $2.50 then intrinsic starts to build. At some point it could cost you more to close out the position than your original $.75 premium, ie net loss.

If next week the stock is at $1.75, the June puts would be least in the $1.25 plus range, which would be a loss of at least $.50 per share to close it out.

Just wondering how you track the position and your plan for exit should it go against you, lots of variables to consider. I always like to formulate an exit plan just in case, makes the execution easier in the future as when things start to go wrong my emotions still cloud my analysis and decisions.

thanks in advance for your thoughts.

Since I have been more active here in the Cara world, I thought I would post trade details.

As such, I am reloading on CRDN (got ~6 points last week). In around 48 with a stop at 46.40 (right below low from yesterday) Looking for 4-5 points here and if it breaks through the high from the last week, there isn't much resistance until 62ish.

This represents a 3-1 reward/risk initially with much more upside potential IMHO.

[Not investment advice, just what I'm doing]

DNA

News comes out on Monday regarding Avastin not extending life but reducing the cancer and the last 2 hours have seen the price drop from 73 to 66. No more news that I can see was issued today. Current RSI(7) for MWD is 26 18 11. Probably should take a nibble when the decline slows a bit.

WGW is up 6.25% today. Every other miner I own or watch seems to be flat or small move either way.

re wgw. i saw the same. buying on technicals, perhaps, off old resistance, now support, but rsi trend is clearly down and these trends have a way of working out.

E-Trade Financial Corp. will send 40 percent of customers' equity orders and almost all options trades to Citadel Investment Group LLC for the next three years.

http://tinyurl.com/2ua326

Stock down 5% today. No position.

Interesting discourse on upcoming Central Bank policy relating to dollar strength...

The Dollar's Perfect Storm Worsens.
http://tinyurl.com/32whbk

Re: Update on the arbitrage question on interlisted stocks I asked a few weeks ago.

This reply from the TXE.

"Thank you for your email. Yes, arbitrage can be done using the currency differences.

There's no relationship ratio between the number of shares traded on each exchange.

Best regards,

Sylvin Gauthier
Coordonnateur d'-Information- Coordinator
Communications d’affaires/Corporate communications
Groupe TSX/TSX Group
tel: 1-888-873-8392
info@tsx.com

www.tsx.com "

holdenll

re: DNA. Watching it, too.
Look at it now...

TGP - looks like recovering. I bought a bit.

CRAMER - tonight will concentrate on minerals and mining.

COMCAST - down 10%; beaten-down CHTR only down 2%, perhaps interesting for bottom fishers.

TradersQuest:

Thanks for the link.

DNA: Panel voted 5 to 4 against Avastin.

Fingerlakes,

I am back in with in the money puts for several months out.

good luck.

The S&P 500 tested its 200 DMA (1484) twice today and has thus far failed.

Currently the 50 DMA and 100 DMA are trending lower. The 200 DMA is still trending upward, but barely. If the 200 DMA starts trending lower, it will be the first time that the 50,100, and 200 DMA's have been simultaneosly trending lower (from what I can tell) since April 2003!

DNA trading halted.
Opening Bids ?

ETrade soon to be a smelly corpse, now with a lawsuit. Stock down 8%. Still holding some puts.

Sebastian River Holding's Inc. announced that the company has filed a lawsuit against E*Trade Financial Corp. (Nasdaq: ETFC). The lawsuit alleges collusion amongst E-trade and its employees to unlawfully, manipulate the company's stock. The Company is suing under the civil section of the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act (RICO). Several individual shareholders have joined the company as plaintiffs.

In addition, the plaintiffs allege that E*trade illegally froze shareholders accounts, not allowing them to buy or sell nor move stock or cash out of their accounts. The suit seeks return of all assets confiscated by E*Trade, including cash and stock. The company is seeking actual and punitive damages for loss of market value and for loss of business opportunity.

"You often hear about these large brokerage firms manipulating stock of small public companies for their own financial gain. The magnitude of E*Trade and its employees' conduct to artificially knock down our market cap is egregious and absolutely astounding,"

DNA

Update - the FDA panel has a split decision 5-4 to not approve for use for breast cancel but it is still approved for colon and non-small cell lung cancer. Avastin is 2nd best selling drug that DNA has. I think this sell off is way overblown but would like to see a blowoff in sell volume before I bite with real money.

I just wanted to encourage everyone to get on board the skype train.

whenever someone posts, it makes a little sound and then you just click and it's there. (this is what is meant by streaming, in case anyone didn't know).
it is a whole lot easier than having to reload the page every 10 minutes or so, if you are someone who does that.

just my $.02

really looking forward to all coming changes, and the '100 best' lists. Thanks everyone for all your hard work, in advance.

Bush to announce mortgage plan RATE FREEZE
Hank Paulson saves the bacon!

"Homeowners who have shown they are a reasonable credit risk but who could not afford their homes with higher rates would qualify for "fast-tracked" loan modification and a five-year interest rate freeze."

WASHINGTON (Reuters)12:50 pm - President George W. Bush is expected to outline on Thursday a plan to freeze mortgage rates for five years for many U.S. homeowners facing sharp increases in their monthly payments, industry sources said on Wednesday.

Final details of the plan are still being worked out after a trade group that represents large mortgage investors presented its framework for implementing a broad rate freeze to the Treasury Department late on Tuesday, the sources said.

"The president will make a statement on housing issues tomorrow afternoon," a senior administration official said, declining to elaborate on details.

The sources, who are familiar with details of the trade group's pitch, said the plan envisions covering subprime loans taken out between January 1, 2005, through the end of this past July, with rates that are due to reset over the coming 2-1/2 years.

An estimated 1.8 million U.S. homeowners who took out loans with low teaser rates face pricey loan resets next year alone, the Federal Reserve has said. Officials fear half a million borrowers risk losing their homes.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has worked closely with the investor trade group -- the American Securitization Forum -- as well as mortgage servicers and lenders to hammer out a comprehensive plan to modify troubled loans.

Rising defaults on U.S. subprime loans, aimed at borrowers with a spotty credit history, have spooked financial markets around the globe in recent months, tightening credit conditions and threatening to derail the U.S. economy.

Many sinking loans had been repackaged as securities and sold to investors, who are having a tough time getting a handle on the value of their assets.

The plan to temporarily freeze mortgage rates is primarily aimed at borrowers who can afford their existing rates and who are current on their payments, but who would face default when the rate resets at a higher level.

Under the plan, homeowners who have shown they are a reasonable credit risk but who could not afford their homes with higher rates would qualify for "fast-tracked" loan modification and a five-year interest rate freeze.

Borrowers who have struggled to keep up their loan payments could still qualify for the freeze, but would face more scrutiny before receiving any loan modification.

The backing of mortgage investors is important to the success of any rate freeze plan as it would give some cover to mortgage servicers and others in the industry who could face lawsuits from bondholders if they began to tinker with loans.

(Additional reporting by Jeremy Pelofsky in Omaha, Neb.)

Copyright 2007 Reuters

Awesome! I will stop making mortgage payments today! and use my rental income in both homes to finally lease that Lamborghini I always wanted! What an awesome country!

Azimuth (AZM.V) IS impressive.

And their year-end write-up, referenced by Bill, is EXCELLENT. When somebody communicates something that well, it suggests they REALLY know what they are doing.

Unfortunately, the weekly chart still looks like a falling knife. Maybe after tax selling ends, it will start northwards, and be ripe for buying.

in all seriousness, if the president goes on tv and announces this, the solvent amrerican citizens will be pissed off for sure!

NYUGRAD...

I think you may have a problem....

They are going to find out about all that GOLD you've been stashing away :^)

Anyway to buy Azimuth in the states..???

Get on board the Skype train? How?

b-guy - You can buy AZM.V through a US Interactive Brokers account.

yes. it seems "MikeNYC" and I get mixed up a lot.

Define "reasonable credit risk" please...

If 25% of all mortgages are delinquent, why not just make the payments until everyone can keep up?

Free homes for all!

"Bibbidy-bobbidy-boo! You shall stay in your home, Cinderella. Never mind that the Dollars in your pay-check will turn to dust at midnight."

http://tinyurl.com/2lj8w3

5 years... that's just about enough time for the Fed Reserve to loosen reserve ratios for banks, and start offering interest on reserves. then the USD turns into a pumpkin!

Mortgage Lender Implode-O-Meter... if only those lenders had held out a few months more....

http://ml-implode.com/

That Cramer video really had an effect on Paulson...

"Open the darn-Fed window! My people are losing their jobs!"

http://tinyurl.com/39afoo

Looks like they blew the doors off instead.

The job growth numbers are probably for government employees who will be manning the phones of the Mortgage Telethon 2007

tick tick tick....

What happens to the people who already lost their homes?

Apparently Britons have another solution...

"How does Sell and Rent Back benefit homeowners?

Property investment companies have got the financial backing to purchase homes and have the cash deposited directly into the homeowner's bank account -- sometimes in only 7 days. With their debt paid off, the previous homeowners then have the option to rent their home back at a standard rental rate.

Thus, in actual fact, homeowners not only have the opportunity to avoid rising mortgage payments, pay off debt and even have some cash left over for personal use, but there's none of the hassle of trying to find alternative accommodation. After all, they can stay in their own house, renting it for less than their monthly mortgage repayment. "

http://tinyurl.com/38nsqt

I wonder if they'll buy a home that needs $100k worth of repairs and is worth less than the mortgage value?

Bill -

Thanks for the praise. I made money shorting MBIA last month. I had another short on after it gained 20% in one day (a gift) but I covered my short an hour before the news today - doh! Even when you are right fundamentally it is hard to short without either taking too much risk or taking gains too early.

I don't know who is going to be foolish enough to recapitalize this company but the prospect will probably keep the stock from declining precipitously. A fund manager - Bill Ackerman I believe, thinks MBIA will be bankrupt by February.

AZMTF U.S. OTC symbol. See a current price (delayed) of 3.70 on google.

At yesterday's close RSI7 D/W/M was 12.29/24.64/39.66.

Returned after 2 hrs away and see strength in WAG has continued. Establishing position @ 36.40 as it has just gone through and finished above 30 Daily RSI7, (closing 31.21 RSI7)

jasper, Try pasting and cutting some of Bill's great thoughts & comments. On a day like this it brings you back to true portfolio management. There will be a time to pull the triggers. Good luck!

WAG 229,900 block trade at 36.46 Time: 16:01

Re: Skype Train (The Cara Express??)

Also works great with Growl notifications.

Bailout for mortgages et al??

I referred the community to an article last week from John Maudlin's OUTSIDE THE BOX.

I am posting the introduction to it.

"The Next Dominos: Junk Bond And Counterparty Risk

By Ted Seides, CFA[i]

Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. Earlier this year, losses from subprime mortgages revealed that the financial markets had taken to excess a good idea in the real economy. A perfect economic environment allowed the alchemists in structured finance to apply massive amounts of leverage on low quality, securitized mortgages.[ii] When the first signs of softening in real estate prices surfaced, we learned that investors had taken on far more risk than anyone realized, and losses could not be contained.

The severity of the subprime debacle may be only a prologue to the main act, a tragedy on the grand stage in the corporate credit markets. Over the past decade, the exponential growth of credit derivatives has created unprecedented amounts of financial leverage on corporate credit. Similar to the growth of subprime mortgages, the rapid rise of credit products required ideal economic conditions and disconnected the assessors of risk from those bearing it.

The amount of outstanding corporate credit and leverage applied to it dwarfs the market for subprime mortgages. As such, the consequences of a problem in this arena may be far more severe than what happened in subprime. If we are going to experience the downside of another economic cycle, we may be in for a painful ride.

The evils that lurk from our creations epitomize Peter Bernstein's definition of risk - we don't know what will happen. By thinking through the evolution of the credit derivatives market and the storm clouds on the horizon, I hope to heighten awareness."

The main points to me which lead me to believe that a BAILOUT may be necessary are:

The severity of the subprime debacle may be only a PROLOGUE to the main act...

The amount of outstanding CORPORATE CREDIT and leverage applied to it DWARFS the market for subprime mortgages. As such, the consequences of a problem in this arena may be FAR MORE SEVERE than what happened in subprime.

Bailout or Necessity???

Bailouts???

I believe this will link you to the article from Maudlin's Outside the Box

http://tinyurl.com/3d9s5b

Golfer...

Bill never sent me your email. Just wanted you to know I was not avoiding you :^)

I am one who also learned the hard way about market orders - buying and selling. When I place an order I never state that it is a buy or sell until I am ready to pull the trigger. I have noticed occasionally that the bid/ask is different when you switch from buy to sell or vice versa. I get the feeling that someone is gaming my order - probably the"dark art" software from some mega-computer being operated by the HB&B service I use - designed to shave a little off my trades. I NEVER placed a market order, nor do I place stops that take me out of stocks I wanted to accumulate. I have shared far too much of my gain and too little of my loss with the broker. What I have learned from Bill Cara has allowed me to have a +25% portfolio gain YTD, and while I still have my "underperformers" I am much more patient and selective because of what I am learning here.

Market strength even in the face of MBI decline is short-term bullish. Now 3.5 trading days until the FOMC meeting. The market usually rallies into the meeting, so we conclude that the short-term direction of the market will be up. Therefore, potential for resumption of the market's downtrend will come after the FOMC's Tuesday rate announcement at 2:15pm.

We will publish our FedCall research note on the FOMC meeting on Tuesday morning, December 11.

http://www.2globalmarkets.com

scotzman - re: WCG
First let me say that I am REALLY new to trading and I might not be looking at the right pieces of information to make any sort of go/no go decision on this.

A friend of mine's mother in law works there and I have been watching it since the big raid was in the Tampa news recently.

Anyway, she told him that "the word" among the regular employees is that insider trading is the issue under investigation, rather than "Medicare fraud" as was initially reported a month or so ago when they were raided.

Apparently, the ceo has said publicly that they are cooperating fully with the investigation and "more details will be released soon..."

They also just had a press release come out last week saying they have a new Medicare management contract for 2008 to add to their other book of business. I am guessing this indicates they were able to convince someone else that they have not been defrauding the government or their clients.

I had not taken a position in the stock, since I was not sure if employee rumors were ethically tradeable. However, the press release last week certainly is, and the stock is now moving north of the firm 30-40 range it has been trading in since Oct.

RSI info:
D 43.996
W 32.864
M 41.945

It is trading no where near it's old highs, or in fact even close to the 50 SMA.

That's the info I have, no recommendation, no position, as folks say.

Good luck, either way you go at it!

basketguy,

I will e-mail Bill and remind him.

Algae Biofuels?

Check out Vertigro.
http://www.valcent.net/s/Home.asp
22,000 gallons per acre from vertically blooming algae. Better returns than algae grown on a flat, plane surface like a lake.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=VCTPF.OB

Too bad it's OTCBB, might buy some if it were the TSX.

Quasi,

If I sell some put options contracts, I can close my position by purchasing the same contracts back before they expire. For example, today UXG went up, the put options went down, and I could have closed my position at a gain if I were to buy the same number of option contracts back today. It is not obvious that I could do it, though, because of the very large bid-ask spread on these options (UXGRZ). When I was selling them, I was using a limit order, since the bid price was very low. I placed a limit order half way between the bid and ask prices, and my order was filled an hour later at my limit price ($0.75).

I can track my options position by simply monitoring the bid and the ask price for UXGRZ. The only reason to track this position is if UXG goes up (and put options go down), but I am afraid that this rise in price is temporary and UXG will fall down again. In that case, I could close my position at some gain, wait for UXG to fall, and open it once again (hopefully earning more money per contract).

My initial strategy of trading stocks was to buy a stock on the way down and sell it on the way up. The last time I bought UXG was at $4. So if UXG rises to $4, then I can conceivably close my options position and release the capital ($7500). Or I can just wait until the options expire and be content with a 30% gain in 6 months on my $7500. Since the UXGRZ options are so expensive relative to UXG price, I will probably just keep my options position open if UXG goes up in price, since 30% gain in 6 months is pretty good and I shouldn’t be so greedy as to try to beat it with trading and timing the market.

Vertigro... interesting company. Check out the video...

Wavesmith. Several months ago I purchased properties for the mortgage. These homes were in exclusive areas but the owners who were over their heads did not want to make their problems public and wanted to ensure stability for their children. Everyone is happy including the bankers. I receive a fair rent and now own magnificent homes which will appreciate significantly over time.

David at December 5, 2007 6:11 PM
Re UXG and UXGRZ put options

Thanks, yes I understand the closing out of options positions and how you could close it out and re-enter it at a better price to make money along the way.

I was more interesting in how you would monitor and close it out when it goes against you, ie when the stock goes below $2.50 those puts will start to be in the money (intrinsic value), allow with whatever time value is left.

If the stock price is $1.75 at expiry then you're OK, you'll get the stock put to, then you could sell the stock at more or less breakeven. Even a few days before expiry if it looks like the stock is going to tank you could buy back the puts at the $0.75 intrinsic value (+ couple of days time value) and close out the position, more or less even. (commissions)

But say the above scenario happens in Feb, stock at $1.75 and odds are heading down, puts will have $0.75 intrinsic and 4 months of time value so I'm guessing about $1.25 to buy em back, ie $0.50 per share in the hole. In this case I wouldn't want to let it go that far.

Thanks for your input still trying to get a better feeling on option strategies and planning exit points to protect profits, its and interesting topic and a little more complicated than just trading stocks.

No more falling knife. I wonder if it will sell off tomorrow. My bid never was close.

This was on a website that focuses on consumer complaints about Option One. I had to paste one mortgage customer's complaint here. For a company trying to stay out of trouble it sure sounds like they rather push customers into foreclosure.

I am looking fwd to the earnings call dec 11 and plan to participate in the q&a.

Michele of Mesa AZ (12/03/07)
We contacted Option One to talk about loan modification (at least remove our pre-pay date, so we can re-finance). Our loan is set to re-set in January, raising our payments 35%. When I called, after receiving their notice that said to call, the guy I talked to said, "but your loan is current." I said I know and I'd like to keep it that way. We wouldn't be able to afford the new payment and that certainly didn't correspond with what was presented to us (That at the end of 2 years, you can just re-fi at a better rate). I called a few days later and got the same statement but he said I could send in the hardship letter, etc. and to call the next day to make sure it arrived. I did and it didn't get put into the system for 2 days. At that time I was told that a negotiator would be contacting me in 11 business days. It didn't happen so I called in and was told it was actually 14 business days. I didn't happen and I called again and was told they would call by the end of the week. Again, you've got it by now. I went to make my payment on-line on 12/1 and it said I couldn't and to call. When I did, they told me they wouldn't accept on-line, phone or checks from us. We had to use certified funds through Western Union. WHAT?! We have never been late one day with this or any other mortgage, but since we asked them to look at options for us, we have now been classified as financial dirtbags. Of course, when I told them we still hadn't heard from anyone, he told me that it should be by the end of NEXT week. Right! It has now been approximately 2 months since the first call. Now remember, we're not late on any payment. It's as if they WANT us to default when it re-sets. And sadly, if we were late, with them not responding in a timely matter, I'm sure they would proceed with foreclosure.

http://tinyurl.com/2nleva

Horatio,

Glad to see you kept roofs over a few people's heads. The stories from Option One are frightening. It is a terrible situation.

It sounds like there is a disconnect between Option One's call centres and billing offices. Not accepting partial payments? Transfers from Western Union only? No wonder they want a 5 year moratorium on interest rate hikes. It will take that long just to renegotiate a mortgage.

Perhaps the goal is for the borrower to go into default so that insurance is paid out on the swaps, while extra non-payment fees are being incurred?

http://tinyurl.com/2uy758

"Loan servicing companies charge owners of mortgages a fee to collect and process monthly payments from homeowners during the life of a mortgage loan. The businesses can become more valuable during bad housing markets because borrowers are less likely to move or refinance, which creates a longer stream of servicing fees. "

"The agreement, to be formally announced on Thursday by President Bush, is expected to include numerous limitations that would exclude many — if not most — subprime borrowers, according to industry executives who have seen it"

NY Times has the details about the subprime "bailout."

http://tinyurl.com/3blq9f

Just more jawboning?

More good news for HOKU, excerpts from Reuters tonight. Check tonight’s news stories if you have an interest in this company. The beneficial news for this company started in June of this year so with a little time spent studying the company’s filings can be insightful.

Reuters says:

Fuel-cell parts maker Hoku Scientific Inc (HOKU) said it signed an agreement to borrow up to $185 million from Merrill Lynch for setting up a polysilicon plant in Pocatello, Idaho.

Hoku's customers, Sanyo Electric Co Ltd, Suntech Power Holdings Co Ltd (STP), Global Expertise Wafer Division Ltd and Solarfun Power Hong Kong Ltd, have committed to pay about $240 million for future product shipments to support Hoku's construction and start-up costs.

IMO the story looks compelling. Still looking to add, in hind sight it looks like today was the day.

Quasi,

You might want to take a gander at this article. Plenty of other helpful ideas regarding options.

http://www.1option.com/index.php/ask_me/comments/
how_do_i_know_if_i_got_a_good_deal_on_an_option/

www.1option.com

Learning new accounting terms every day.

“side pocket accounts”

example---“Illiquid? Just put it in the side pocket accounts.”

WSJ Heard on the Street 12-6-2007 (subscription required)

“It got so bad that his $5.5 billion firm, Ellington Capital Management LLC, stopped allowing investors to exit or invest in the fund, saying Oct. 1 that quotes it received from Wall Street traders for certain assets weren't reliable, because of a lack of trading in vast parts of the market. Another, smaller debt fund also was frozen."

"Looking for a way out of the bind, Ellington is considering putting the funds' illiquid assets, representing more than 10% of their holdings, in so-called side-pocket accounts, used to hold hard-to-value assets, and then reopening the funds early next year, according to investors briefed on the possible move.”

http://tinyurl.com/yqgtxd

jfs at December 5, 2007 11:16 PM

thanks jfs, that article and site look interesting I will check it out later. Just got in after a little too much scotch tonight, buddy just returned back to snow country from California.

It's Not 1929, but It's the Biggest Mess Since

http://tinyurl.com/2zyqmg

Method in the market's madness for now

By Tom Stevenson
Last Updated: 2:03am GMT 06/12/2007
Anyone who thinks the stock market is a casino run by lunatics will have had their prejudices confirmed yesterday. They will have watched open-mouthed as the City celebrated a raft of appalling economic data with a 179-point leap in the FTSE 100 index.

http://tinyurl.com/24y3lm

Quasi,

As I mentioned before, my strategy is a long-term one, and if I have to wait a year or two to make the profit, so be it. So I don't care if UXG drops below $1.75 -- I'll just sell another bunch of put options, receiving much more money for each option. In my other positions (e.g., GROW, where put options are not as expensive relative to the stock as in the case of UXG) I am just trading the stock, which might be more profitable if the stock seems to have hit the bottom and is just bouncing around there. For example, I bought GROW in low 20's and sold it a dollar higher MANY times before GROW fell to its new trading range around $15. As a result, I currently have more GROW in my account than before, all of which is "underwater," but it's fine, because I know it will eventually rise above $30 (and I think it will happen within a year). I am not that sure about UXG, but I am just betting on the fact that its decline is due to several negative news by the company (poor exploration results, firing of the president) and also the general negativity about the mining/exploration companies. Since negativity and positivity of various sectors always alternate, I believe this is the time to be "greedy when others are fearful."

http://tinyurl.com/35wsrm
“Attorney General Andrew M. Cuomo of New York has subpoenaed major Wall Street firms including Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank, seeking information about the business of packaging and selling subprime mortgages, according to people briefed on the subpoenas”... “Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers were also sent the subpoenas. Goldman Sachs was not.”
“...Mr. Cuomo recently subpoenaed Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae in a broad look at what he called “widespread collusion” between real estate appraisers and lenders, including Washington Mutual, to inflate home prices. He filed suit against First American Corporation, alleging they artificially inflated appraisals to win Washington Mutual’s business.”

The concept of caveat emptor (buyer beware) is a long-standing principle in commerce that states, without a warranty, the buyer takes the risk. At times, the doctrine has been misused by Wall Street, but this is not such a time.

http://tinyurl.com/33l5ky

Greetings from the Amish frozen tundra.

Here are your Cara 100 U/D's for this morning:

Upgrade:

DNA - to Outperform @ Wachovia

Downgrade:

DNA - to Hold @ Jefferies & Co.

New Coverage:

CTSH - Mkt. Perform @ Friedman Billings

-------------------------------------------------

New research report on China Mobil (CHL):

http://tinyurl.com/34cjql

Have a great day everyone.

Toll Brothers Reports $81.8 Million Loss
http://tinyurl.com/2oa2no

"The concept of caveat emptor (buyer beware) is a long-standing principle in commerce that states, without a warranty, the buyer takes the risk. At times, the doctrine has been misused by Wall Street, but this is not such a time."

Telestar,
Smells like a ponzi scheme, acts like a ponzi scheme, is bailed out like a ponzi scheme,...
Well it does not take a PhD to figure this one out, but it does require a PhD to defend it.

Q..

Which source of RSIs is being used?

I have RSI from Stockcharts, Google RSI tool, the RSIapp from Korvus,Investor Tech...

all different..

Which source is being used?

USA
CDO
CDOCDOCDO
CDOCDOCDOCDOCDO
CDOCDOCDOCDOCDOCDOCDOCDO
LOANLOANLOANLOANLOANLOANLOANLOANLOAN
HOUSEHOUSEHOUSEHOUSEHOUSEHOUSEHOUSEHOUSE

Kind of does look like a pyramid.