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April 28, 2007
Week #17 (2007-04-28) in Review (FINAL)
It has been that kind of week as the Dominion continues to reject Trader entry to Delta Quadrant. In other words, with all the conflicts aboard Deep Space Nine, we may have to return our beloved space station to earth.
Back on Planet Earth there was a meeting of the G-7 Collective that started April 12, which requires me to post some addition log entries.
There had been “news” that the $USD would be protected from further devastation, but indications from forex markets came as early as the post-Easter return to markets of the Global Christian Federation of Traders. Following that G minus China meeting of important finance ministers and central bankers, the $USD continued to exit Gamma Quadrant and gain entry to Beta Quadrant.
The Value Line Reports this week are on USS S&P Industrials: Caterpillar, Honeywell and United Technologies (CAT, HON and UTX), which typically sell more product (with pricing power) as the $USD declines.
Essentially, the message is that if the $USD falls to zero, all the foreign buyers need doing is to sign the delivery receipt for the gift package from America as well as to ensure they haven’t broken any laws for handling the goods, which had better be checked in the case of Honeywell. I assume that construction equipment from Caterpillar and elevators from United Technologies is ok on that score.
Come to think of it, with the crashing $USD, nothing brings home to foreigners the concept of “free ride” better than the gift of an elevator from America. I wonder, also, if the Chinese have to pay “List”.
Until the G-20 Collective gets their Yuans and Yen in order, traders are in for more volatility in all capital markets. After all, hot money now moves faster than snail mail as the late-great Baring’s Bank shareholders discovered. Rolling in $USD one morning; out of business in the evening.
America sent up some rockets this week in their industrial conglomerates known as the GICS 20 sector: The big winners this week, on the back of that falling $USD, were Honeywell (HON +6.8 pct #2 performer W/W in the Dow 30), 3M (MMM +4.9 pct #3), General Electric (GE +4.9 pct #4) and Caterpillar (CAT +2.7 pct #7).
Markets don’t move randomly; they are pushed by sell-side institutional account managers selling themes. The theme this week was how the lower $USD and the share buy-backs would boost the US exporter conglomerates.
But maybe there was more to the story than that. Maybe these mega-cap concerns are now into proprietary trading rooms that deal in the currency plays? After all, their operating cash flow and profitability is materially affected by currency swings over which they have no control.
So maybe Honeywell, 3M, GE and Caterpillar were booking their profits on the Euro trades (and buying $USD) in advance of the Fed changing its policy? We all know that higher profits would mean higher share prices, right?
I’m speculating here, obviously, or I’d pull out the evidence. But, maybe some researcher could look into the quarterly financials to see if they can determine if these so-called industrial firms are playing Forex Made Easy? (LOL)
After all, we were told Enron was primarily an energy utility when, in reality, it was Amaranth before we learned of Amaranth. Everybody, it seems, has to “get theirs” and the best way is to gamble Other People’s Money, and get your departmental year-end bonus when you win and a pink slip if you lose big enough that somebody in HQ takes notice.
And if that’s the case, do people like GE’s Jeff Immelt have to excuse themselves from Fed board meetings, which he attends as a member? Or how about those HB&B seats on the Fed board. Are they blind and deaf, and/or honorable too? Does a policy change discussion at the Fed go in one ear and out the other or does it pass through lips and fingers via phone and Blackberry direct to the home office proprietary trading desk?
I ask because I don’t know.
Although I think you know what I suspect.
In any event, the US industrial conglomerates this week took off on a moonshot.
Whatever it takes to drive the Dow to 13,000! At least the Bulls are happy. For now.
Global Market Summary
International Equities: A week ago I said, “Still some catching up to do if you can believe that the push in US markets on late Thursday plus Friday is sustainable.” This week, more push from the US and more pull from abroad. Across either pond, most markets were losers.
U.S. Equities : The broad indices in the US all gained. The Russell small cap 2000 only gained +0.10 pct W/W though, after it took a big hit Friday. A few positive earning stories, higher dividends, share buy-backs and take-over deals pushed the Dow up +1.2 pct, the S&P 500 up +0.7 pct and the Nasdaq Composite up +1.2 pct.
Dow 30 : The Dow 30 average lifted +1.23 pct to 13,121. Can you believe that after a long history of running blue chip enterprises, the market cap of HON rocketed +16.0 pct in two weeks, and CAT +10.2 pct. I say, this is not a sustainable rocket. The small caps are not doing as well because nobody is lending them the money to do the buy-backs and issue dividends that in total greatly exceed free cash flow.
U.S. Sector ETFs: Seven of 10 US sector ETF’s were up this week, although on Friday there was only XLI up, which happened because of a HON of a deal.
First segment: most influenced by global commodities, forex and capex spending
10: Energy (XLE): #3 (+1.6 pct); #1 over past 6 days
15: Basic Materials (XLB): #4 (+0.7 pct); Miners down however
20: Industrials (XLI): #2 (+2.2 pct); Share buy-backs & dividends
Second segment: most influenced by U.S. consumer spending and economic growth
25: Cons. Discretionary (XLY): #9 (-0.4 pct); Friday killed a good week
30: Cons. Staples (XLP): #8 (-0.3 pct); Friday hurt
35: Healthcare (IYH): #7 (+0.2 pct); Slowdown after 3 huge weeks
Third segment: most influenced by U.S. interest rates and general economic health
40: Financial (XLF): #6 (+0.5 pct); Digesting the earlier gains
45: Tech (SMH chips): #1 (+2.3 pct); Two weeks #1, but chips still dip
50: Telecom Service (IYZ): #10 (-1.0 pct); T down -3.1 pct thx to Whitacre
55: Utilities (XLU): #5 (+0.6 pct); Be wary of Fri (-0.83 pct)
Bonds: “The US Bond market sank a bit. US Treasury Yields increased from +2 bp to +4 bp W/W.
Commodities: Crude oil gained +2.35/bbl, with metals down, and so $CRB was up a bit (+0.7 pct), closing the week at 314.20.
Oil & Gas: $WTIC futures jumped +3.7 pct W/W to 66.46. This is now above the upper end of OPEC’s 55-65 comfort zone, but I don’t hear them complain. Iran is even suggesting they’re cool with the nuke deadline in May. But, traders are watching.
Gold: The Precious Metals dropped out of bed. $GOLD was down -14.00 (-2.0 pct W/W) to 681.80. $SILVER (-2.7 pct), $PLAT (-3.6 pct) and +PALL (-3.4 pct W/W) were worse, but not so bad considering the recent run-up. Profit taking and Euro bank selling too. Not sustainable.
Goldminers: The goldminers went down again with the $XAU dropping about -2.8 pct.
Forex: Yet again, the $USD dropped, this week by -0.2 pct and the Euro gained +0.3 pct. The $USD has fallen from 83.30 to 81.49 in five weeks. There was a small gain on Friday.
Economic calendar for next week.
Cara 100 Stockwatch
Here are the Cara 100 gainers on Friday.
Interactive chart of the top 12 Watch List gainers
Somebody recently applauded me for 93 gainers of 100. Fame is fleeting. But, remember the Cara 100 represents a watchlist of high-quality companies, not booming stocks, although that sometimes happens too.
Here are the top Cara 100 losers for Friday.
Interactive chart of the top 12 Watch List losers (Interactive link)
There were no stocks of the Cara 100 for Friday that hit 52-week intra-day highs and lows.
Sector ETF Summary
The tables I show are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF’s) only.
Seven of the ten sector ETF’s I follow here were up this week. But on Friday there was just a single one that lifted (XLI). And with that one the story about the falling $USD helping the mega-sized US exporters (gain profits) is true but a little long in the tooth.
The following table is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.
Table 1: Cara ETF List
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.
For a list of components to any ETF, simply go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s. I do that frequently because the list of ETF’s growing incredibly fast.
10 (energy: XLE)
15 (basic materials: XLB)
20 (industrial: XLI)
25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)
30 (consumer staples: XLP)
35 (healthcare: IYH)
40 (financial: XLF)
45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)
50 (telecom: IYZ)
55 (utilities: XLU)
Individual Sector ETF Review
Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)
This week, XLE gained +1.63 pct. A week ago Friday XLE was up +1.84 pct, so that is a gain of +3.5 pct in six sessions, which makes XLE top performer over that time.
Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLE Monthly data:
XLE Weekly data:
XLE Daily data:
Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Big Oil has been a powerhouse over six days.
ExxonMobil (XOM) gained +0.8 pct on top of the gain of +3.0 pct a week ago. ChevronTexaco (CVX) lost some ground (-0.5 pct W/W).
On Friday, PetroBrazil (PBR -1.2 pct on the day) was hammered, closing the week at a lose of -1.6 pct.
There were some impressive moves in the Canadian oilsands stocks on Friday: Suncor (SU +1.3 pct), Imperial Oil (IMO +1.4 pct) and EnCana (ECA +0.3 pct), but over the whole week, the gains were much smaller.
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada
Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)
The Basic Materials ETF (XLB) gained +0.67 pct W/W to close at 39.34.
YTD, XLB is #1 with a gain of +13.7 pct, ahead of Utilities (XLU +13.6 pct) and Energy (XLE +13.3 pct). Compare those results to the Financials (XLF +1.0 pct YTD).
Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLB Monthly data:
XLB Weekly data:
XLB Daily data:
Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities:
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
A week ago I wrote, Gerdau (GGB +2.1 pct) and Alcoa (AA -2.1 pct) showed that steel and aluminum were going in opposite directions. This week they switched back as AA gained +4.7 pct and GGB lost -2.3 pct.
Other big steelmakers lost this week too: Mittal (MT -2.2 pct), and NuCor (NUE -4.1 pct W/W).
The metals and gold miners were also soft again because of metal prices getting hit. BHP (BHP -3.0 pct), CVRD (RIO -2.5 pct) and Rio Tinto (RTP -1.0 pct) led the way down the shaft. $COPPER was down 2.4 pct.
Meridian (MDG -4.4 pct), Newmont (NEM -3.9 pct) and Goldfields (GFI -3.6 pct W/W) were big losers as $GOLD and $SILVER prices were down -2.0 pct and -2.7 pct respectively.
Because of operating leverage, when the metal futures prices drop, the share prices of the miners drop more, and when the metal prices rally, the share prices gain even more. Usually.
The problem today, in my view, is a slow economy in the US and Europe, which means that the copper price ought not be so strong, but is probably because the four big miners (BHP, CVRD and Rio Tinto plus Xstrata) have a lock on the market. As China is growing so quickly, and demanding so much copper, the Big Four producers can get their price by withholding sales, slowing production, etc. Traders on the other hand can figure that this price squeeze cannot last, and that the miners costs are increasing quickly, so they won’t give the same high PE multiple on the stock. The PE’s will contract.
It always surprises me to see a well-known investment analyst point the TV audience to a miner with a PE of 3 or 4 as being a terrific buying opportunity, which is what I heard on Friday on BNN. A PE of 3 this late in the cycle is usually a peak for the stock price because earnings are likely at the top of the cycle and traders are not willing to pay up for the stock. What almost always happens is that as the metal prices top out, those stocks are then sold by the fund managers.
The best time to buy the miners is when there has been a down cycle for both the metal and the share prices, and the metals inventory is low, and the economy also bottoming out, which likely happens every four or five years. An economic renewal will soon create demands for metal that will send the price higher, but there is always a lag time before the miners can effectively meet the higher demand. So with pricing power and growing production, traders will start bidding the shares higher.
As I say, today’s pricing power is coming from an oligopoly situation. The Big Four got in that position by buying out the competition in recent years, at inflated valuations. They took on a lot of debt, which they need to pay down asap. By squeezing the metals prices, their profitability is running at a maximum rate, and their share prices are high. Into the cycle peak for share prices, these miners need to be selling new shares to pay down their debt. If they wait too long, interest rates will start to rise – either because the central banks want to put downward pressure on inflation and speculation caused by the rising metals prices – or the artificially high metals prices will put downward pressure on economic growth, which will slow demand for the metal.
China, being the demand source at present, and with the ability to pay, is the significant player. As soon as copper production ramps up from China’s mines that are not under control of the Big Four, guess who the loser is. So this pricing anomaly is not sustainable.
In the precious metals market, the significant player is the G-7 central banker. Gold and silver is currently being sold to use the proceeds to buy $USD to help stabilize it. So in the case of gold, the oligopoly power wants the metal price lowered.
You might ask, why support gold when central banks – a much bigger powerhouse than the Big Four metal miners – want gold prices down, and the Big Four want base metal prices (of which copper is the most important) to go up? The reason is what Kaimu is saying every day, which is that governments are running up debts and central bankers printing money much faster than the goldminers are discovering and producing gold or (at present anyway) the private sector is creating net new wealth.
A lot of the wealth being created today by leading Dow 30 companies (Boeing, Honeywell, United Technologies and General Electric) may help their bottom line but is actually being built to be destroyed, eg, armaments and war planes. At the end of the day, war causes inflation because it costs money, which needs to be printed, and is therefore a debt, without the offsetting asset.
Without war, which is decided by governments, there would never be an inflation problem. If you doubt that statement, simply look at a 250 year chart of inflation and in every case you will link the cycle to a war. Outside of wartime, increased productivity and intellectual property discoveries is a killer of cost and a creator of wealth.
So, when there is no war, the best investments are securities (stocks and bonds, and especially those of the economically-sensitive and interest-rate sensitive stock sectors) and not commodities (or stock sectors that benefit from rising commodity prices like Energy, Metals, Gold) and (like, eg, Industrials HON and UTX) war.
After Sept 11, 2001, the nature of the capital market changed to favor commodities and companies in the US industrial-military conglomerate group.
If the Democrats gain the White House and regain control of both Houses of Congress, there will likely be an end to international hostilities for a while, which will then favor the Consumer sectors (discretionary and staples spending and healthcare) and the economically-sensitive and interest-rate sensitive Banks, Techs, Telephony/Telecom, and Utilities.
As traders watch for signs that the Dems would take full control politically, and the Chinese authorities would re-focus on cost controls after the Summer 2008 Olympic Games, they are thinking ahead to the strategic decisions that have to be made in their portfolios.
Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)
A week ago, the Industrials and Transport sector ETF (XLI), aka capital goods producers, rocketed +2.11 pct. This week the rocket became a moon shot, up a further +2.23 pct, to close at 37.64.
XLI closed March at 35.54, so the present level (37.64, four weeks later) is a gain of +5.9 pct.
Only the ETF’s for semi-conductor chips (SMH +10.4 pct) and healthcare
(IYH +7.5 pct) have performed better in April.
Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLI Monthly data:
XLI Weekly data:
XLI Daily data:
Senior capital goods makers and transportation:
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
A week ago I wrote, “The movers and shakers this week were Honeywell (HON +9.3 pct) and Caterpillar (CAT 7.53 pct). Actually, these two moved up +4.8 pct and +4.7 pct respectively on Friday. Sometimes seeing is not believing, though.”
Maybe I should have believed! This week, HON gained +6.8 pct and CAT +2.7 pct. In six sessions, HON is up almost +12 pct and CAT about +7.5 pct. That is spectacular.
What it reminds me of, in a sense (common sense actually), is of Black Monday Oct 19, 1987. You have seen how fast these stocks have gone up this past week. Now look to see how fast they can come down in a week, or even a day!
And, just maybe that’s why I don’t believe. On Monday Oct 19, 1987, I sat at my trading desk in the penthouse of the Toronto Stock Exchange tower. I didn’t believe what my eyes were seeing that day either, but it was happening as I stared at my monitors, speechless.
For anybody who, twenty years ago, had a position of responsibility for the wealth of others, that was a personality and career-defining day. Many owners and managers of capital quit the capital markets that day, and many on the sell-side walked away too.
Since I have been on the firing line when blue chip stocks plunged -25 pct in a day, it’s like water off the duck’s back when somebody says I am missing out on these +1 pct rally days.
Thankfully, I have never had to wear to a war theater my military uniform from student militia days (42nd Medium Battery, 7th Toronto Regiment). But I recognize the experience of those who have and who are.
Close to 0.5 pct of my readers are coming from US military servers, so I feel uncomfortable even making reference to war and death, other than to pay tribute to the soldiers who are carrying out their duty. And I hope my readers recognize the experience that some of us earned on Black Monday – I can’t mention names but g034 is one.
A week ago, I wrote, “I cannot deny my surprise that FDX and UPS have joined the rally.” Now I can say I don’t think I get fooled often, as the Daily and Weekly charts below for FDX and UPS show.
Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)
The Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) had a loss of -0.35 pct W/W to close at 39.43. But on Friday, the loss was -0.66 pct.
The US Consumer Confidence, GDP, and Employment data was released. It didn’t look good for consumer spending regardless of any Talking Head spin. ALERT.
Econoday wrote: “Friday offered a mixed batch of data that have raised talk of stagflation. First-quarter growth GDP was a soft 1.3 percent while prices rose a very steep 4.0 percent. The wage component of the employment cost index, released at the same time, rose 1.3 percent in the first quarter for its biggest jump in six years. Rising wages at a time of slowing growth could be trouble, implying that productivity gains may no longer be sufficient to absorb inflation pressures.”
If the US consumer is key to the direction of the global stock market, and I still believe that is the case, then trader be wary.
Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLY Monthly data:
XLY Weekly data:
XLY Daily data:
Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
There are some stories that involve deals, dividends or share buy-backs that are pushing certain stocks north, but many are heading south.
Carnival Cruise (CCL +3.1 pct) was a winner, especially when tacked on to the prior week’s gain (+4.3 pct), but CCL is still down -6.3 pct over three months.
Toyota Motor was up the prior week (+3.6 pct), but dropped -3.1 pct this week, and is down -7.3 pct in three months and -9.8 pct YTD. Ouch!
Starbucks had a big week a week ago (+3.7 pct), but was down this week (-0.5 pct), which makes it -10.6 pct YTD. That’s cold coffee, and rising commodity and labor costs.
Whirlpool (WHR +17.6 pct W/W, +19.9 pct over 2 weeks, and +25.9 pct over 4 weeks) makes me look good I suppose because Whirlpool is a Cara 100. But this week, Whirlpool reported a -1 pct profit decline for 1Q07.
"I think the big news was the resumption of the share-repurchase program -- half a billion dollars -- plus their integration with Maytag is going extremely well and their outlook looks pretty good" for the current quarter, an analyst said.
The share buy-back says it all. The shorts are being squeezed.
Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)
The Consumer Staples sector ETF (XLP) was down 7 cents (-0.25 pct W/W) to close at $27.50. But Friday’s loss was -0.22 pct.
But, don’t let the flat market fool you. There was lots of volatility here this week.
Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLP Monthly data:
XLP Weekly data:
XLP Daily data:
Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
A week ago, Wal-Mart (+5.0 pct) led the parade, but this week WMT dropped -2.9 pct.
The other Wally, Walgreens (WAG -1.7 pct W/W) lost it all and some on Friday (-1.8 pct).
A week ago Coca-Cola (+4.4 pct) was a leader as the ‘$USD makes foreign profits, which are repatriated, which looks good at home’ story ran out of steam. KO dropped -0.1 pct this week.
The big winner was Whole Foods Market (WFMI +3.5 pct W/W and +7.2 pct over two weeks) as news that the company’s offer of $671 million to buy competitor Wild Oats (NDQ:OATS) has been held up again by the Federal Trade Commission.
WFMI stock (47.51) is still down -26.6 pct over six months. It was good for a short trade in January (at 43) when it got down to the Cara Accumulation Zone where Monthly-Weekly-Daily RSI-7 was at or below 30, and the Daily RSI-7 was crossing back up through the 30 line. Could have been sold at 52 less than a month later.
Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)
A week ago I wrote,
After being the number one ETF performer in my list of ten for the second consecutive week, the IYH healthcare ETF was still rolling along, up +2.03 pct to close at 71.50. That’s over +7.0 pct in three weeks.Now we are being told that the litigation issues of Merck are inconsequential, and we ought to be recognizing the “new” Merck.
These story-tellers from HB&B can really lay it on thick. But with a Daily RSI-7 up at 88.3, it is starting to smell like horse manure. I know the Dems are having an open house with free bar, but isn’t this going overboard?
IYH did gain 17 cents this week, but that’s a gain of just +0.24 pct. The M-W-D RSI-7 is presently 79.8/75.0/79.2 so why would anybody want to buy it here. There may be some individual healthcare stocks that still look good, however.
Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
IYH Monthly data:
IYH Weekly data:
IYH Daily data:
Table 7: Senior healthcare equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Merck (MRK) was down -1.1 pct on Friday. GSK dropped -2.4 pct on the week, JNJ -1.5 pct, PFE -1.3 pct. So Big Pharma was soft.
Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)
The Financials ETF (XLF) came back to earth (+0.5 pct W/W) to close at 37.30. The week previous was an unbelievable one, going up +4.0 pct.
This week showed some way up and others way down.
Here’s the XLF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLF Monthly data:
XLF Weekly data:
XLF Daily data:
Table 8: Senior financial company equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
A week ago, Lehman Bros (LEH) and Merrill Lynch (MER) rocketed +8.2 pct +6.7 pct, respectively. This week they dropped -2.6 pct and -2.1 pct.
But Credit Suisse (CS +3.1 pct), Moran Stanley (MS +2.5 pct) and Goldman Sachs (GS +2.0 pct) were solid debits, leaving some clients with solid credits.
This rally in the Financials may have peaked for now.
Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)
This week SMH gained +2.32 pct to close at 37.07, following a week where it had been up +5.11 pct, thereby taking its 52-week loss down to just -2.5 pct with just two swings of the bat. Shall we try for three home runs back to back to back, or will we just foul off a few?
Here’s the SMH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
SMH Monthly data:
SMH Weekly data:
SMH Daily data:
Table 9: Senior technology equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
After Intel had made a neat two-week gain of +13.2 pct, it was down -1.3 pct this week. That’s called consolidation.
German software giant SAP consolidated even more (-3.5 pct W/W) after it was up over +8.1 pct in the previous six days.
Autodesk (ADSK +5.9 pct) and SanDisk (SNDK +3.5 pct) were strong this week, although SNDK dropped -2.6 pct on Friday.
SanDisk ($44.01 after an intra-day high of $46.30)posted a 1Q loss, but sales were up +26 pct. The adjusted earnings were $0.18 vs consensus $0.19 and a comp of $0.44. Still, Goldman Sachs likes the long-term future because of the Hynix royalty agreement, and believes that margins have bottomed out. They raised their 12-month Price Target (PT) on the stock from $46 to $53.
Anyway, two months ago SNDK was down in the Cara Accumulation Zone at $36. Tell me, how many of you bought SNDK under 37-37.50 and sold it a couple weeks later at $44 and change (based on a Weekly-Daily RSI-7 that had gotten up to 70/88?
These numbers tell the truth. As more people are trading by indicators now, the story-tellers must be getting more desperate. Those who are trying to deceive the rest of us must be in a panic. The major Funds who have blocks of paper to buy and sell must be calling the NYSE/NASDAQ for 24-hour price delay, saying that the public’s right to 15-min and 20-minute delayed data is insufficient for them to get their trades off. And, moreover, the data belongs to us that the exchanges are selling at exorbitant prices! We should all be getting it free. It’s an absolute crock that we don’t get to play the time float too.
Anyway, we did manage to reduce trade commissions to what the Institutions pay. Some of us remember how the Wall Street sell-side used to ding us for 3 pct going in and 3 pct coming out! It was ok when I was in the business. And the one-eighth spreads made trading as a broker-dealer the opportunity to get rich off the backs of clients – one at a time as Morgan Stanley preaches. Our firms became Humungous money printing machines, which explains why Humungous Bank stepped in to buy us and change their name to Humungous Bank & Broker.
Now that HB&B gets a chance (the legal right) to see our order flow and our portfolios and financial resources, and trades against us, they dropped our commission cost of trading to pennies, hoping we would trade even more. They would even pay us commissions to trade if we would trade more! With that “unfair advantage” of proprietary trading against client order flow, how can they lose.
(HB&B speaking:) “Let’s see; I know I can clip this client for $2 a share, so why not pay him 2 cents commission?
You think I josh? (Cara shakes head from side to side)
Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)
The U.S. telco sector ETF (IYZ) had a loss of -1.02 pct W/W.
I’d like to say IYZ was the worst performer this week because the AT&T CEO is going to take home to his retirement about 150-odd-million $USD more than any other of his 303,000 employees. They also don’t get the stretch limo, and private jet or the annual royalty for goodness knows what.
Dibs on his job… at least before the nonsense stops.
Yes, AT&T (NYSE:T) dropped -3.1 pct this week (about $8 billion) as traders puked on their keyboards. Verizon (VZ) stock was off a mere 2 pennies (-0.05 pct).
The old saw that a man who leads his team to a massive victory ought to take home the spoils is not really true here, is it? In three years the AT&T balance sheet has increased its current liabilities over current assets by an extra +4.5 billion, and I don’t know how much that will increase after assimilating the $85 billion purchase of Bell South.
The stock is the Dow Industrial 30’s #2 performer over 52-weeks, but the # 1 performer is Merck. If T and MRK hadn’t been beaten up so bad, for good reason I might add, these growth percentages would not look so good. Let’s go back to 1999-2000.
The stock is a fraction of its price at that time. And, if the insiders would stop selling their stock (24 sells to 1 buy in the past year), maybe the stock would do even better.
These CEO’s must think they live in Fairyland if they try to rationalize a take-home package of close to $160 million.
Here’s the IYZ Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
IYZ Monthly data:
IYZ Weekly data:
IYZ Daily data:
Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)
The Utilities ETF (XLU) eked out a gain of +0.58 pct this week after losing –0.83 pct on Friday, to close at 41.81.
A soft bond market didn’t help.
Here’s the XLU Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLU Monthly data:
XLU Weekly data:
XLU Daily data:
Bond & Interest Rate Review
US Treasury bonds lost in price this week as the yields lifted +4, +2, and +2 basis points (bp) to 4.86 pct, 4.67 pct, and 4.57 pct respectively on the 30-year, 10-year, and 5-year instruments. The 2-year paper was unchanged.
The spread between the 2-year and 3-month Treasuries narrowed from -19 bp to -13 bp this week as the T-Bill yield dropped -6 bp from 4.82 pct to 4.76 this week, and the yield on the two-year stayed flat.
The TLT lost -0.36 pct W/W to close down at 87.83.
So, last week was an aberration in the down-sloping trend of TLT. TLT was at almost 92 at year-end 2006, so long bond investors (ie, those who hold to maturity) have taken a beating this past few months.
Once again, everybody had been asking, ‘How low can TLT go?’ I feel it can dip quite a way before the next intermediate-term cycle terminates in 2H07.
Interest rates and bond yields.
Interactive Daily data charts:
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Interactive Chart of Interest rates and bond yields.
A week ago, I wrote, “Fannie (FNM) (+9.5 pct), Freddie (+8.7 pct) and Countrywide Financial (CFC) (+11.1 pct W/W) trapped more than a few Bears.”
This week FNM was down a bit (-0.12 pct) and FRE up a bit (+0.44 pct), but the winner was CFC (+3.05 pct).
Somebody still hoping that Bank of America will buy it?
US Bond Funds -- Interactive Monthly Data Charts
SHY Monthly data series chart:
IEF Monthly data series chart:
TLT Monthly data series chart:
AGG Monthly data series chart:
LQD Monthly data series chart:
TIP Monthly data series chart:
US Bond Funds -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts
SHY Weekly data series chart:
IEF Weekly data series chart:
TLT Weekly data series chart:
AGG Weekly data series chart:
LQD Weekly data series chart:
TIP Weekly data series chart:
US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
SHY Daily data series chart:
IEF Daily data series chart:
TLT Daily data series chart:
AGG Daily data series chart:
LQD Daily data series chart:
TIP Daily data series chart:
Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
I put a link on the side bar to www.thehousingbubbleblog.com, which offers insights as to what is happening across America with respect to housing and mortgages. I say this cancer will spread for several years, not resolve itself in a few weeks. The big losers here are the bondholders who bought this securitized bundle of Liar Loans. The problem will never go away if the taxpayer gets stuck with the bill.
Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts
Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
Commodities Review
The Commodities Index ($CRB) recovered this week +0.69 pct after a gain of +1.03 pct on Friday, closing at 314.20. That move was largely energy related.
$CRB (314.20) is now sitting atop the 50-day MA (311.23) and 200-day MA (313.51) lines, but too close to call it long-term bullish.
A lower $USD this week and last helped push up the $CRB.
Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:
Oil:
This week, $WTIC regained +2.35/bbl (+3.67 pct W/W) to close at 66.46.
The $WTIC 50-Day Moving Average (from StockCharts) is now 62.40, while the 200-Day MA is 63.15. Hence the current price (66.46) is technically bullish.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:
Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:
Gold:
After a bump of +38.50 in four weeks, this week gold was a different story. $GOLD lost -14.00/oz (-2.01 pct W/W) to close at 681.80.
The 50-day MA is now at 670.90 and the more important 200-day MA is at 635.05. So $GOLD at 681.80 is still very bullish. And I think it will stay that way for a month or two. Then I believe it will have a significant pull back.
All the Precious Metals were down this week. But, $GOLD, $SILVER and $PALL popped a bit on Friday – at least enough for me to say I think the ECB selling is over for a while.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.
This week, $SILVER lost -$0.38 (-2.72 pct) to close at 13.57. I still believe that most of the pull-back (-$0.52 over two weeks) was a matter of brief profit taking. The gain in the prior three weeks had really been too hot not to realize a portion.
The 50-day MA is 13.63 and the 200-day MA at 12.73, so the current price at 13.57 is still technically Bullish in the long-term. I think the short-term cycle has pulled back to a buying range.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.
A week ago I wrote, “$PLAT rocketed +56.10 (+4.37 pct) W/W to 1341.20.”
This week, $PLAT dropped -$48.20 (-3.59 pct) to close at 1293.00. It closed the week of March 10 at 1208.00, so its still a long way higher.
The 50-Day MA for $PLAT is now 1252.57 and the 200-Day MA is 1194.34, so $PLAT is still solidly Bullish despite this week’s profit taking.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.
$PALL closed at $376.12, down -$13.38 (-3.44 pct W/W).
The 50-day and 200-day Moving Averages for $PALL are 360.85 and 337.77 respectively, which means palladium is still technically quite bullish, and has been since early October (290.88).
Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.
Base metals, which had been red hot (just a pun), cooled this week.
$COPPER lost -8.85 (-2.44 pct) W/W to close at 353.25, taking away the prior week’s gain.
The 50-day MA for $COPPER is 311.92, and the 200-Day MA is 317.01. So, at 353.25, $COPPER is still bullish, and not going down like some experts were forecasting.
This move, like uranium, has a lot to do with producers keeping supply off the market for a while, as I opined earlier. Certain players are squeezing the shorts.
Remember, these big guys are no longer mining companies. Xstrata, for example, is a market trader. They buy management control in order to play the resource market. They hire great professional managers, but their head office people wouldn’t recognize a shaft unless they are sticking it to somebody.
The latter I repeated because it made a good point. Enron was a trader too; not a utility company. Many trading companies go bankrupt when they run up against traders, organizations and govts with deeper pockets than them.
For all but the Fed and HB&B, it is a sometimes lucrative, but awfully tough, business.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.
Table 12: Senior gold equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Most of the seniors and juniors were down again this week. I’m still not crying over a little profit-taking – especially since I thought it was over on Friday.
If you go to the $XAU Weekly chart (Philly gold and silver miners), you will see what technical analysts refer to as a long base pattern foing back to the start of 2006. I see that as a very powerful pattern awaiting a break-out to the upside. To get us into that trend, I believe $GOLD will have to surpass 730, at least. I expect that to happen within 30 to 45 days.
But these are images I get from the Cara Crystal Ball.
Btw, it’s a stunningly beautiful day here, which reminds me I have to finish up.
To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:
NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:
SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
$XAU, GDX and (TSE’s) XGD were all down sharply this week, -2.75 pct, -2.72 pct and -3.58 pct respectively. Not to worry. These profit-taking traders now have some more ammunition to use.
The $XAU index lost -2.75 pct to close at 139.71, which put it right on the 50d-MA (139.37) and 200d-MA (138.19).
Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:
Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:
The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.
Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:
GDX Weekly data:
GDX Daily data:
The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD.
Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:
Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:
Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:
Forex Review
The $USD closed at 81.49, a loss of -0.20 (-0.24 pct) W/W.
The $USD 50-Day MA is now 83.08, and the 200-Day MA is 84.60, so the current price (81.49) is technically quite bearish.
The following data requires your attention: M3 update as of the past week.
M3 is growing at an excessive rate in order to pay for a war and for govt deficits not matched by taxes, although the annualized rate of change has dropped a bit.
Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:
The Euro (priced in USD) had another increase on the week, gaining +0.36 (+0.26 pct W/W), closing at 136.34. A long-term cycle high this week-end.
The $XEU 50-Day MA is 133.34, and the 200-Day MA is 129.75, so the current price (136.34) is technically very bullish.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:
Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:
The British Pound lost -0.74 (-0.37 pct W/W) to close at 199.59.
The $XBP 50-Day MA is 196.49, and the 200-Day MA is 192.37, so the current price (199.59) is technically quite bullish.
Weekly British Pound Index:
Daily British Pound Index:
The Japanese Yen had another pull back against the $USD following last Friday’s loss (-0.34 pct). This week, the $XJY was down -0.64 (-0.76 pct) against the USD, closing at 83.56.
The 50-Day MA is 84.47, and the 200-Day MA is 84.78, so the current price (83.56) is bearish.
I continue to say, this is a function, I think, of the Japanese Administration and central bank trying to help domestic exporters.
I also think that it could be that the carry trade will be coming to a close soon as the BoJ may be about to raise rates. Something to consider.
Weekly Japanese Yen Index:
Daily Japanese Yen Index:
Weekly Canadian Dollar Index:
Daily Canadian Dollar Index:
The Canadian Dollar gained +0.54 (+0.61 pct W/W) to close at 89.63, which is now six weeks of powerful moves against the USD.
The $CDW 50-Day MA is 86.59, and the 200-Day MA is 87.45, so the current price (89.63) is technically very bullish.
International Equities Review
Most of the international markets had a tough week. The Templeton Russia Fund dropped -2.94 pct W/W after giving back -1.89 pct a week ago. The big hit came this Friday (-1.96 pct).
India (IFN) lost a modest -0.07 pct, caused by Friday’s huge loss of -2.89 pct.
The China FXI dropped -2.49 pct W/W, including Friday’s loss of -1.00 pct.
As I say, traders have been advised by Talking Heads that Dr. Joe of the People’s Bank of China is not to be feared. I question that one.
This week Twiggs offered the wise advice, “Don’t get caught up in the euphoria.”
In the case of the Nikkei Dow, global traders are watching to see if that stock index (the world’s second most important) is going to lead global equities down – based on damage caused by the carry trade, which is to say for the reason that debt built around the world to incredible levels to accommodate a soft Yen policy by the Bank of Japan that would help the Japanese exporters.
As I wrote a week ago, “Traders cannot argue with the facts, but the faster and higher the broad market continues, the more I believe we are going to witness a 1987-type correction, only this one won’t have just a single shoe to drop. After a bounce back (as the Bulls will buy the pull-back), I believe that unlike 1987 there will be a Bull Trap and the broad market will hit trap door number two.”
I expect the next explosion in the market will be centered in Tokyo.
Asia-Pacific indices (Interactive link)
European indices (Interactive link)
Table 13: International equities perspective
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ
Japan’s EWJ (which is a USD-denominated NYSE-traded ETF) lost -1.71 pct W/W to close at 14.39.
Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
U.K. equity market ETF: EWU
The EWU (UK market ETF trading in the US in USD) lost -1.00 pct W/W to 24.86.
Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
EWU Daily data:
Canadian equity market ETF: EWC
EWC (priced in USD) had a modest gain (+0.40 pct on the week) to close at 27.88. That’s a gain of +6.5 pct in 19 sessions. The TSX Composite hit another new all-time record this week.
Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
U.S. Equities Review
All broad indexes in the US stock market gained again this week, although the S&P 500 and the Russell small cap 2000 were down on Friday, especially the small caps (-0.49 pct).
On the week, the Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 small cap indexes gained +1.22 pct and +0.10 pct respectively, while the S&P 500 and the Dow 30 gained +0.65 pct and +1.23 pct on the week.
A week ago I wrote about “the froth I see in HON, INTC, CAT, JPM, AXP and WMT, all of which were up +5 pct or more this week. For goodness knows why.”
HON and CAT sure didn’t take a rest this week either.
Colin Twiggs has done his usual superb job of positioning the support and resistance levels of the US stock markets. Here is his US stock market chart analysis from www.incrediblecharts.com. He has opined that the resistance levels that were cut through a week ago, now stand as technical support.
Here’s my take. There will be a quick drop to maybe 11,700 on the Dow so that (i) the Bulls have been trapped, and (ii) the spin doctors can point to the possibility that new Bulls would be the Bears who had capitulated earlier and missed the run up to 13,000, now “buying the dip” so they wouldn’t miss out on the prize another time.
Cough, cough, ouch… the room is too smoky, and I’m bumping into mirrors.
The next shoe to drop will take the Dow all the way down to 10,700.
The third shoe will drop the Dow to maybe 9,800, which would be a mid-size Bear market of about -25 pct.
Now the problems are worse this time, so maybe the Dow goes lower. I don’t know, but I have a feeling those traders who were trying to make those who wouldn’t join their flock feel bad in recent weeks will be the first ones slaughtered.
Trading is not an easy deal. If it were, there wouldn’t be miners and steelworkers doing the real work. They’d be sitting back like some of us pushing the buy and sell ‘easy’ button.
Here is the Monthly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.
Here is the Weekly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.
Here is the Daily data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.
Table 14: Dow 30 List
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.
AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM
Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)
Dow 30 comments:
If you didn’t already, you might wish to review the reports from Value Line, which this week are on three companies: Caterpillar (CAT), Honeywell (HON), and United Technologies (UTX).
Caterpillar
(CAT: Value Line Report Apr. 27: next one is due Jul. 27)
Honeywell
(HON: Value Line Report Apr. 27: next one is due Jul. 27)
United Technologies
(UTX: Value Line Report Apr. 27: next one is due Jul. 27)
As readers know, United Technologies is a Cara 100 Global Best Company. I’m not interested in accumulating UTX at the present time because, as I say, the price is not in the zone.
Proving that some CAT’s have more than nine lives, the price of this one is up in the Distribution Zone (DZ), and that of HON, being a part of the evil Romulan forces of Bush, Paulson and Bernanke, even took a moonshot from the already rarified air of the DZ this week. ALERT, ALERT.
I’d like to have the time to review the Value Line reports in detail, but time is of the essence again this weekend as this was the first WIR I published AFTER the ISP switch. As any techie knows, that means more coding, testing, hair pulling.
Now I’m smiling. Mostly because I’m nearing the end of this WIR.
That’s not to say I don’t love the work. I do. I have to do it regardless. It’s just that much more pleasurable doing it for so many more people.
Alcoa [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(AA: Yahoo Finance file)
(AA: StockChart chart)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: Value Line Report Apr. 20: next one is due Jul. 20)
Altria Group Inc [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MO: Yahoo Finance file)
(MO: StockChart chart)
(MO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MO: Value Line Report Feb. 2: next one is due May. 4)
American International Group [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AIG: Yahoo Finance file)
(AIG: StockChart chart)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: Value Line Report Feb. 23: next one is due May 25)
American Express [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AXP: Yahoo Finance file)
(AXP: StockChart chart)
(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)(AXP: Value Line Report Feb. 23: next one is due May 25)
AT&T [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(T: Yahoo Finance file)
(T: StockChart chart)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: Value Line Report Mar. 30: next one is due Jun. 29)
Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30. Cara 100]
(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)
(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)(BA: Value Line Report Mar. 23: next one is due Jun. 22)
Caterpillar [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(CAT: Yahoo Finance file)
(CAT: StockChart chart)
(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)(CAT: Value Line Report Jan. 26: next one is due Apr. 27)
Citigroup [GICS 40, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(C: Yahoo Finance file)
(C: StockChart chart)
(C: ADVFN Financial Data)(C: Value Line Report Feb. 23: next one is due May 25)
Coca Cola [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(KO: Yahoo Finance file)
(KO: StockChart chart)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: Value Line Report Feb. 2: next one is due May. 4)
Disney [GICS 25, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(DIS: Yahoo Finance file)
(DIS: StockChart chart)
(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)(DIS: Value Line Report Feb. 16: next one is due May 18)
Dupont [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(DD: Yahoo Finance file)
(DD: StockChart chart)
(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)(DD: Value Line Report Apr. 20: next one is due Jul. 20)
ExxonMobil [GICS 10, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(XOM: Yahoo Finance file)
(XOM: StockChart chart)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: Value Line Report Mar. 16: next one is due Jun. 15)
General Electric [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(GE: Yahoo Finance file)
(GE: StockChart chart)
(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)(GE: Value Line Report Apr. 13: next one is due Jul. 13)
General Motors [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(GM: Yahoo Finance file)
(GM: StockChart chart)
(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)(GM: Value Line Report Mar. 2: next one is due Jun. 1)
Hewlett-Packard [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(HPQ: Yahoo Finance file)
(HPQ: StockChart chart)
(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)(HPQ: Value Line Report Apr. 13: next one is due Jul. 13)
Home Depot [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(HD: Yahoo Finance file)
(HD: StockChart chart)
(HD: ADVFN Financial Data)(HD: Value Line Report Apr. 6: next one is due Jul. 6)
Honeywell [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(HON: Yahoo Finance file)
(HON: StockChart chart)
(HON: ADVFN Financial Data)(HON: Value Line Report Jan. 26: next one is due Apr. 27)
IBM [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(IBM: Yahoo Finance file)
(IBM: StockChart chart)
(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)(IBM: Value Line Report Apr. 13: next one is due Jul. 13)
Intel [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(INTC: Yahoo Finance file)
(INTC: StockChart chart)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: Value Line Report Apr. 13: next one is due Jul. 13)
Johnson & Johnson [GICS 35, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(JNJ: Yahoo Finance file)
(JNJ: StockChart chart)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: Value Line Report Mar. 2: next one is due Jun. 1)
JP Morgan [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(JPM: Yahoo Finance file)
(JPM: StockChart chart)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: Value Line Report Feb. 23: next one is due May 25)
McDonalds [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MCD: Yahoo Finance file)
(MCD: StockChart chart)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: Value Line Report Mar. 9: next one is due Jun. 8)
3M Company [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 250 June 25-06]
(MMM: Yahoo Finance file)
(MMM: StockChart chart)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: Value Line Report Feb. 16: next one is due May 18)
Merck [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(MRK: Yahoo Finance file)
(MRK: StockChart chart)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: Value Line Report Apr. 20: next one is due Jul. 20)
Microsoft [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(MSFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(MSFT: StockChart chart)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: Value Line Report Feb. 23: next one is due May 25)
Pfizer [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(PFE: Yahoo Finance file)
(PFE: StockChart chart)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: Value Line Report Apr. 20: next one is due Jul. 20)
Procter & Gamble Co. [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(PG: Yahoo Finance file)
(PG: StockChart chart)
(PG: Billcara2 chart)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: Value Line Report Apr. 6: next one is due Jul. 6)
United Technologies [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(UTX: Yahoo Finance file)
(UTX: StockChart chart)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: Value Line Report Jan. 26: next one is due Apr. 27)
Verizon [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(VZ: Yahoo Finance file)
(VZ: StockChart chart)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: Value Line Report Mar. 30: next one is due Jun. 29)
Wal-Mart [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(WMT: Yahoo Finance file)
(WMT: StockChart chart)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: Value Line Report Feb. 9: next one is due May 11)
Wrap up:
This weekend, I spent much time yesterday helping to create new specs for the changes to this website and two others. I also spent time re-coding some of the html script and ftp script for the changes required by the new ISP. This is my first WIR after the change, and it took a lot longer than usual.
Besides I was a lollygagger, amusing myself with stories I inserted here.
Yesterday my wife spent the entire day I think, arranging and re-arranging the shipment of flowers from Kaimu. She was over-the-moon and took photos for me to run here, but then she took off this morning for a Jones of New York clothing sale. “The heavier I’m loaded down on my return, the more I saved!” were the last words I heard as she departed this morning.
If I didn’t know better, I’d say I’d hope she would return mid-week. But I know by now you have to spend three to save one, and not being a real actor she doesn’t get a tax write-off for her expenditures, and the VISA isn’t going to disappear like on TV.
When she returns, I’ll tack on the photos. I must say the package that Kaimu sent would make a lovely Mother’s Day gift for anybody including Bill Gates’ wife. I’m not into the flower thing, but these were something to behold.
As to the market, Colin Twiggs said it, but the operative phrase of this blog too is “Don’t be blinded by the euphoria”. The equity markets are in the third and final stage of what is historically an extremely long and powerful Bull market.
I think by now you get it. The price of assets can be lifted by the creation of wealth or by speculative means. One or the other. The latter is defined (by me in this case) as a ton of debt creating an ounce of wealth and also higher asset prices. This gives new meaning to the expression “lead balloon”.
There is another popular expression in equity markets, which is that “what goes up will come down”. I’m here to say that most of the time that’s really not true. It just happens to be true today -- because higher prices today are the clear result of speculation, which in turn has been caused by excessive money printing by the world’s central banks. First it was real estate that has taken the hit; next it will be stocks and bonds.
You see, here’s the deal. You print the money to lend to people to buy Boeing at 95 or Honeywell at 55, they have a debt valued at x. And when the shares of Boeing and Honeywell drop by a third, to say 65 and 35, these traders own 0.67x of the asset but still hold 1.00x the debt.
Knowing that MBA-PhD’s and CFA’s on Wall Street haven’t grasped what primary school kids are taught, I have this theory that we’re all born as smart people at the end of our lives, and we regress over the years back to birth in the womb.
With age on my side, as it were, I’m smart and I’m just getting started. Unfortunately too many of you have been dummied down in your youth to the point where you believe that (well you know) is the best place to end up.
Now, listen up to an old guy. When the ‘x debt versus the .67x asset’ thing happens to some people in real estate, especially those of the LIAR LOAN group, they tend to walk away or declare financial bankruptcy. Of course, in that case, the present US Administration saw it coming and managed to squeeze in new bankruptcy laws before the event.
Those VIP’s, by the way, were getting sound advice from HB&B, who didn’t want to be the bag holders.
Probably, judging from the pay-offs, the advice came from ‘Gold’man Sachs.
And in the commodities and securities markets, when brain cramps leading to major losses happen to people like Nick Leeson or Brian Hunter, trading OPM, they quietly leave by the back door and hope that the smoke clears fast so they can get back behind a new desk somewhere.
But for real people – I’m presuming that’s you and me – we will be harassed into our grave by debt collectors from HB&B, heaven forbid we can’t get our heads back above water to a point where the x on the left equals or exceeds the x on the right side of the ledger.
Being a sailor, I like to say that most people in that predicament end up locked in irons, where they become the living dead. But after the world watched Enron’s CEO Ken Lay put those expressions in a different light, I’ll pass on the nautical theme.
Let’s just say, there are reasons for Bear markets even if some “experts” believe they never have to exist. Its called having an appetite bigger than your stomach can accommodate.
With the final analogy, I can close by saying it has been a slice. Was I Delissio or delivered?
Thank you for hanging in.
I will later append the photos of the flowers from Kaimu -- that is if my wife gives me the camera after I smile and thank her for saving so much money at Jones of New York today.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on April 28, 2007 10:10:57 AM | Category: Cara Week in Review
Discourse
Housing comments in So. Cal:
I have heard several comments coming from sub contractors of hardwood floors that things have slowed considerably here in Orange County; Newport Beach, Laguna Beach, Anaheim, etc. I am talking about the production new home builders. I never hung my hat with that crowd, just the wealthy homeowners and custom million dollar home builders along the coast. Things could not be better for me. The 250K and above incomes just keep on spending and building. I have not been getting the phone calls though from any quality installers or finishers that have lost their jobs due to this slowdown in Centex, Standard Pacific, etc. They must be filtering in somewhere. I am waiting for the shoe to drop though. In August of 1989 my business dropped like a rock on a dime. I was busy during the Summer of that year from back log but nothing new came in to support August and beyond. That seems to be the way things happen. Especially in the descretionary products. No one has to have a hardwood floor. stk
Posted by: stktrader ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.billcara.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at
April 28, 2007 11:33 AM [link]
David M. Walker, Comptroller General of the United States at Colbert / :-)
50 trillion hole and growing 3 to 4 trillion annually……
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/
got gold....?
Bill & All ,
The 5 years old EURO made a new high(!?) ( not a buy recco).
ALOHA !!
Prices do not go up the purchasing power of the US Dollar goes down! Thats the dirty little secret the US government and the FED don't want you to know ... Next time they bring the oil execs in front of Congress for being too "profitable" because we complain of high gas prices ask Congress this:
1- Why isn't Goldman Suchs on the hot seat?
2- Why does Congress keep inflating money supply by over spending/debt?
3- Why do we have a central bank?
I have been advocating the elimination of the US Federaal Reserve for years along with the IRS and 80% of government "welfare" agencies.
How can we survive without a central bank. EASY !!! We print our own money based on the production of the USA. Why do we need a group of private banks to control our money and economy?
Here is the only country in the World today that exists without a central bank. NO CENTRAL BANK!! NO GREENSPAN!! NO BERNANKE!! NO LAME ASS FOMC!! NO FAKE CPI NUMBERS!! NO GOLD STEALING!! NO PLUNGE PROTECTION TEAM!!
The past four years this country's GDP has averaged 7% and their inflation rate the past 20 years has fluctuated between 1% and 3%! They even use the US Dollar as their currency! Guess what happens when their banks get in trouble? They FAIL! No bailouts ...
Figured out which country it is yet?
For the answer go to this link: http://mises.org/story/2533#
Here's a hint ... Our military invaded them when Reagan was President.
Posted by: kaimu at
April 28, 2007 12:43 PM [link]
"No one has to have a hardwood floor."
You do if you have pets! Of course, you need a good pee-proof finish.
Ah, Happy weekend Captain Bill and All,
Have you all taken a look at Commander Twigg's missives? Take special note of two items which just JUMP out at me.
1. Fed Ex and UPS are not in on the up(moon)shot of the trannies. Who ships Fed Ex and UPS?
Who ships truck and especially, rail? Remember that rail part because....
2. The OZ market is testing the upper trend channel and showing signs of distribution, falling money flows. Check out the cash flow trend line! Now that's another quadrant!
This is the primary commodity source economy feeding Starfleet Chindia. Why would the primary source of raw materials show weakness and signs of topping?
How can the rails and co's like CAT, BUCY, etc. and commodities show continued strength in the face of the All Ordinaries seeming to do just the opposite?
What's your take on this Bill?
Posted by: Craig at
April 28, 2007 1:09 PM [link]
Captain, about Honeywell, last year they spent more than $1.9B on repurchases, and they still have $800M left to do, which would reduce the share count by 3.5%. I was just wondering if or how this would affect the DZ border, i.e., is the DZ lifted from 70's or 80's (or 90's in this case) because of the buybacks?
Archer out.
Posted by: SiO2 at
April 28, 2007 4:23 PM [link]
Kaimu...
US Dollars circulate in Panama? Alongside the Balboa 1 to 1?
And the number of US Dollars allowed 'in country' is restricted by the Panamanian government? So the importation of US currency is a violation of Panamian law?
Would like to see a complete explanation of this system.
Latin American criminal cartels would seem to be positioned to circumvent the currency importation restrictions through bribery/force/subterfuge.
Posted by: esbisworried at
April 28, 2007 6:34 PM [link]
FT reports today that Correa's Ecuador has declared the World Bank country rep. "persona non grata".
The constitutional crisis continues to unfold, with conservative legislators having fled to Bogota.
Won't this all begin to affect ARU.TO's stock price?
Posted by: Jock at
April 28, 2007 7:33 PM [link]
Some of my more sophisticated, financially savy friends have chosen to forego Panama as a banking destination or for its rather over hyped real estate "opportunities", citing possibly much more unknown systemic risk and corruption than they are willing to abide.
Things that look too good to be true, usually are.
I can't say that they are correct and have done literally no due diligence, but there are so many obviously better places to look, why would anyone follow the leader to Costa Rica, Belize, Mexico to pay US real estate prices when so much in SA and CA offer outragious opportunity?
I don't get it, but I am sure enjoying adding a new language. Spanish is relatively easy for us old Latin and French students.
Of course I will be banking in the Bahamas and attending each years' Bill Cara Holliday extravaganza. Much like the old Buffet share holders meetings I suspect.
Everyone to their own.
Posted by: Rigdon at
April 28, 2007 7:38 PM [link]
ALOHA !!
The point is ... we don't need a central bank!
Please offer one reason we need private bankers controlling our money supply. The same duties can be done by the US Treasury and the US Mint. When has debt and credit expansion ever been a long term viable solution to anything? The only benefactors are private banks!
Posted by: kaimu at
April 28, 2007 8:27 PM [link]
So agree, Kaimu.
By the way, there are still some very substantial advantages in using a Panamanian "corporation" when doing business in any foreign market. Your "corporation" can own any asset (tax free) and transfer to a buyer is merely a matter of physically transfering the (bearer) certificates. No tax consequences, no one the wiser. Very convenient. No filings, no records. But be careful. For the very reason that this structure holds an advantage, it is rife with rip off artists, etc.
Why not wait until Bill opens the Bahama option?
Posted by: Rigdon at
April 28, 2007 9:27 PM [link]
Esbisworried -
The balboa exists only as coins (fractions of dollar). The bills which circulate in Panama are US $$$.
Even if Panama doesn't have a central bank, the US$ is still subject to the games played by the US fed, isn't it?
Still, Panama has one great thing going for it. Ruben Blades is now Tourism Minister. And he is one of the great singer/songwriters of our times - in my view, on a par with Lennon and McCartney.
I imagine the cultural secene is flourising there.
Posted by: Jock at
April 29, 2007 12:03 AM [link]
Lets not get over excited about panama. Last I checked Its GDP - per capita (PPP):$7,900.
https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/pm.html#Econ
OT: Colonoscopy,
One listens to the talking heads on tv and the doctors that they hire that not one person should have to die of colon cancer. Right now Tony Snow is the example. But what they don't talk about is the cost. I had one done on Friday due to the fact that I had performed a virtual colonoscopy a month ago. That cost 695.00 usd, and it found a small polyp in my rectum. Therefore a real test had to be performed to see if it was really there. It was, so it was removed. If you have one polyp, there is a 40% chance that you have another one at the other end of the colon. I did not have another. Now I have to be tested every 5 years vs. 10 years for polyp free tests. I have a Blue Cross PPO with a 5K deductable. I went to the local hospital and was pre-admitted. The hospital charged me 3,000 usd for their fees. That was the defined benefit that Blue Cross provides. That does not include the doctors fees or the fees to test the polyp for cancer. What maybe another 1500 usd. I was told to go to room 112 after the pre-admit. I entered what looked like a patients room, and that was where the test would be performed. I was preped, the doctor entered the room and looked at my chart, the Demoral and Versed was injected into the IV and I was out of the hospital an hour later. The test takes 20-30 minutes depending on ones colon structure. This doctor performs on average 10-15 tests a day. By the way, I am 55 years old with no primary family history of colon cancer or polyps. The point is that although no one should die of colon cancer, how many middle income individuals can afford to pay 5000 usd for a pre-cancerous test. Staying alive costs a lot of money. Only 1% of the US population can afford to pre-test for diseases they don't have. I keep telling my wife that we need to move to Canada. She's French and has a brother living in Montreal.
Posted by: stktrader at
April 29, 2007 10:20 AM [link]
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a2j4pgA2svRM&refer=home
China upping reserves again. Be sure to check out the link above.
Stktrader. Sorry to hear about you plight. Hope you feel much better soon. On more than one occasion I have had to sit through discussions with intelligent Americans as the rant about Socialist Canada. My response is always a polite smile. Just recently Canada was once again named the most admired country in the world. I am not going to rant or rave about our Socialist medical system, but will say tank God we have it for ALL citizens.
Posted by: Horatio at
April 29, 2007 12:07 PM [link]
Bill,
To end your Microsoft Word troubles go to the Tools menu --> Autocorrect options --> Autoformat as you type, and UNCHECK "straight quotes" to "smart quotes."
Posted by: josh at
April 29, 2007 2:32 PM [link]
Hi Bill,
In your comments about Starbucks, you described rising commodity costs as a driver for the current stock price. But unless SBUX is hedged poorly to coffee prices, this should be a time of increasing profits. Coffee in the futures market has gone from 133 to 103 since December of 2006. I was interested in buying calls on December coffee until I read reports that coffee was plentiful and that crop reports expect a bumper yield in the next harvest. It was interesting to read that Vietnam was one of the largest producers of coffee. No one can dispute the fact that employees are in high demand and that equates higher wages.
Posted by: stktrader at
April 29, 2007 2:40 PM [link]
things i noticed - XLF and XLY are the only 2 of the 10 that have not eclipsed their feb highs.
SMH-parabolic in the face of slowing chip demand (I remember watching Cramer in January saying to sell tech and stay away until the summer, all the gains are made in the 4th quarter. Thanks JC!)
healthcare - dad had quadruple bypass 3 years ago - 135K total for 4 days in the hospital. Good thing he had insurance which costs him over 10K per year. hospital aspirin $8 PER SERVING! Physical Therapy - which was literally 10 minutes of walking him around the nurses station once - $200. and they did that 3 times a day! Healthcare costs are THE issue to deal with.
There is a warning - file not found - before the yield curve chart. We'll forgive you. Seriously, fantastic report Bill, thanks.
Posted by: rob d at
April 29, 2007 2:46 PM [link]
ALOHA !!
Right on Bill ... War builds no wealth except for the those corporations who provide weapons and equipment. Prior to invading Afghanistan and when Bush declared "Mission Accomplished" I was blogging "WE CANNOT AFFORD THIS WAR!" This is not just some willy-nilly rant I am on, but more based on recent history going back a mere forty years to Vietnam. We finally had to leave Vietnam because a superpower cannot win against guerilla warfare and civil war(a harsh historical lesson repeated many times over by many superpowers)and the main reason was WE RAN OUT OF CASH!
Now our family has been notified that my wife's cousin GARY ROGERS, a Vietnam Vet and aged 60 died yesterday from a long battle with "AGENT ORANGE" related complications! He died at the Veterans Hospital in Yountville, California. He had many problems after he returned from Vietnam. As you may recall most all of the Vietnam soldiers were drafted not volunteers.
This is the other cost of war that really does not get a lot of headlines. Way back after the Vietnam War ended AGENT ORANGE was very topical and an outrage, just as "unarmored humvees" and "depleted uranium" have been lately. But somehow our National memory gets soothed over by the BeeGees and American Idol and we quickly bury our heads in our latest luxury purchase ... perhaps a new SUV or a new flat screen TV!
I plan on doing a more lenghty write up about AGENT ORANGE later and how its effects are seen today. I have direct contact with some of the AMVET heirarchy based in California who are very angry about the US government and its lack of funds for the AMerican VETS of not only Iraq but the ones still alive from Korea and Vietnam.
I have to say though I am highly disgusted by our government and our constant acts of cruelty against others. Okay so DOW Chemical and Monsanto and other chemical companies paid off the American, Australian, New Zealand and Canadian Vietnam War vets, but what did the Vietnamese people get? In 2005 their case was finally dismissed from the Second Circuit Court Of Appeals due to "no legal basis". The judge who rendered this decision was the same attorney who defended the US vets in their cases in the early 1980s. The US government takes no responsibility because of "sovereign immunity"!
AGENT ORANGE and AGENT BLUE and other chemicals were routinely sprayed onto the Vietnamese people from 1962 to 1971, thats nine years of toxic carcenogens! Called "Operation Ranch Hand" some 16million gallons were sprayed. There were two reasons for the US military spraying. To defoliate the jungle so the enemy could not hide and to destroy crops so the people would starve.
AGENT ORANGE link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agent_orange
Now don't forget that along with AGENT ORANGE we regualrly "carpet bombed" major Vietnamese cities. We essentially stopped short of tactical nuclear weapons and still could not win!! What does that tell you about winning Iraq?
I have to add ... after all this death and destruction "We The People" have heaped upon the World through the election of Dems and Reps what basis do we have to accuse other nations and dictators of "human rights" violations?
Who did Saddam Hussein learn about "gassing" people from? None other than Winston Churchill and the British military who dropped poison gas on Iraqis in the 1920s. Documented by Churchill in his book "My Early Life" published in 1930.
The cost of these wars are highly inflationary and will last many years afterwards, even if we "pulled out" of Iraq tomorrow. These effects will essentially cause the destruction of the US economy. Empire always ends this way! Just exactly what has the USA gained from policing the World and enforcing "democracy" for 100 years?
Somehow I do not believe our Founding Fathers had invisioned that America would be carpet bombing and starving people of the World in order to spread "democratic values"! If they were alive today they would have the entire Republican and Democratic leadership shot for "High Treason"! It is time that "We The People" took the reins of power back from these despots that have ruled and ruined our Nation for far too long! These elected leaders have shown that they have no business being in financial markets or warfare. Their record of success is dismal at best and getting more dismal every day!
GOVERNMENT IS ONLY AS HONEST AS ITS MONEY ...
Posted by: kaimu at
April 29, 2007 3:06 PM [link]
was just reading the news and found that this tiny little company in my home state is being sued by the big bad establishment. apparently no other product is allowed to be yellow and green. maybe they don't believe that the adult literacy rate is accurate? anyway went to the site, and read some pretty interesting stuff on environmental cost accounting, and a more sustainable capitalist model. someday.
http://www.terracycle.net/index.htm
kaimu - check this out -
imagine what it can do for your orchids.
Posted by: rob d at
April 29, 2007 3:07 PM [link]
October, '87 -- and why Americans feel financially insecure ...
Oct 16th, 1987 I was holding OEX puts - which by COB expired at 27 times my cost. That night I flew to London, and Sat. morning saw old trees uprooted from a major freak storm. Sunday, I arrived in Geneva for a major telecoms conference.
By Monday morning there was news of further carnage in New York, but no detail. I and others ran around the exhibition floor looking for real-time information, but finding only canned presentations on vendors' telecoms products. Real time quotes? - there were no affordable broadband links in those days even for mega-corporations at the world's largest telecom show. I remember seeing only 1 narrow-band circuit with quotes, and it was rather hard to get close to that screen!
Grown men clutched in fear their Wall St. Journals which had gone to press before Monday's carnage. It took me years to get over that feeling - even though my puts had covered my other losses. Still, I will never trust those who rule the markets.
Other reasons why Americans feel financially insecure: Nobody can afford to get massively ill in the US. Most health insurance policies have a lifetime cap of $2-3M. They say even "Superman" (Christoper Reeves) ran through all his assets. (Not to mention plight of the 45M without health insurance!)
It's hard to give your kids a first class education - 4 years at the best universities cost almost $200K. My kids got into great universities, and fortunately I was able to pay their way. Now, the middle class increasingly have to settle for second best.
On the other hand, the things that DON'T really matter are cheap in the US.
Posted by: Jock at
April 29, 2007 4:14 PM [link]
According to GDP numbers that came in on Friday, the economy appears to already be in a recession!
I think Wall Street's reaction to these numbers would have been vastly different if the the data was released during the week during full trading volume and instead was completely ignored on Friday as the Dow plunged yet again higher.
As Bill notes above, all the major indices were up over 3% for the week and green everyday.
I think there will be, at first, a major case of profit-taking and then followed by a likely bit of panic selling next week.
Posted by: onlineaces at
April 29, 2007 5:02 PM [link]
I'm a bit too young to really remember anything about Black Monday, but I found a video that kind of confused me... what shocked me was that everything so quiet that day on the trading floors...
http://cbs2chicago.com/vault/local_story_069133954.html
To add to Bill's event calendar and on the topic of high medical bills... The Inaugural International Medical Tourism Conference is April 30 - May 2, 2007 in Las Vegas.
OT: Canadian vs. US Medicine
I work as a hospital pharmacist in a border city and have had the pleasure of working with many Canadian pharmacists, pharmacy students, physicians and nurses. Almost without exception, they would prefer to be treated in a US facility. I also see first hand the "brain drain" from Canada, in that so many Canadian university and residency grads prefer to work in the US.
It may have cost him a $5000.00 deductable, but stktrader had his polyp removed soon after it was detected. The same colonoscopy in Canada would have to be scheduled months in advance. Many Canadians take advantage of Buffalo facilities in order to get important medical tests done without delay.
Canadians are very proud of their healthcare system, and rightfully so, but I wonder if they would be as happy with it if they didn't have a safety valve south of the border?
As for stktrader's $5000.00 cost for a preventive procedure, relatively few people pay that kind of money out-of-pocket. Medicare, Medicaid, and private health insurance with flat copays make up a majority of patients. Hospitals are required to treat patients, regardless of their ability to pay.
There are valid arguements both ways over a single-payer system vs. whatever you call what we have in the US. But, there is also a valid arguement that Canadian healthcare is losing ground to the US, little is reinvested in hospital infrastructure, and that Canadians are too proud of their achievement of universal healthcare to work towards any kind of needed reform.
Posted by: Klingon288 at
April 29, 2007 6:09 PM [link]
Finally...After reading since the trader wizard days a topic I understand. Klingon is correct. Others commenting so far are not involved with medical care. To state that some americans can't afford health care implies that they don't recieve health care. Out of 12 major surgeries I performed last weak 4 were noninsured. These patients recieved quality care independant of insurence status. The canadians I see are generally patients of means who are searching for more timely treatment. I recently had my air conditioning fixed in my car witch cost me more than a patient pays for curative surgery. There are certainly major problems with american healthcare but I don't want it changed so that a C student will perform my complex cancer surgery in 3-4 months.
Jim
Posted by: jamgar1 at
April 29, 2007 6:58 PM [link]
RE: RON PAUL , a true American who respects gold and distrusts the Fed
Interesting that no one ever brings up RON PAUL, a pseudo-Republican congressman running for President and whose viewpoints on gold, fiscal policy, international state of affairs, and government all echo with most of the people write about here and 80% of Bill's commentary
See his questioning of Bernanke on the Fed: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A4kxTkhwR_Q
His many speeches: http://www.house.gov/paul/legis_congrec.htm
Check him out
Posted by: stockershock at
April 29, 2007 7:00 PM [link]
Klingdon. You are very uninformed and blowing hot air. We have a cure for those symptons here in Canada which I can't write about here.
Posted by: Horatio at
April 29, 2007 7:06 PM [link]
Horatio,
Please elaborate, based on your extensive experience, on the uninformed attributes of Klingdon statement.
Jim
Posted by: jamgar1 at
April 29, 2007 7:13 PM [link]
Re US vs. Canada Healthcare
Here's a couple of key points regarding differences in the health care systems of the 2 countries.
Life expectancy in Canada (as of 2005) was 79.43 versus 77.12 in the United States. Additionally, per capita spending on healthcare (in 2003) was $2,998 in Canada versus $5,711 in the United States.
Canadian health care is delivering better overall valuefor the money.
Additionally, all Canadians have access to the full capabilites of the health care system with access to specialists and services controlled at the General Practioner level. These services generally have a cap on how many can be performed which causes waiting periods in some situations, but in my experience, anyone with a serious condition is always treated promptly.
I believe that the level of health care provided in the U.S. is often of higher quality if you have the money to pay for it. You can go and see a dozen surgeons about your condition if you want to, whereas in Canada, you only get to see one or possibly two. I also agree with your statement that Canada can maintain an overall lower level of service because the government knows they can farm off unexpected high volumes to the U.S.
One argument that American's will often make is that, "sure Canada has health care for everyone, but look how much higher their taxes are". While it is true our taxes are higher, for a middle income American, the costs of health insurance will generally far outstrip the lower taxes, and the real winners (again) are the wealthy who get the benefits of lower taxes and having heath care premiums being a lower percent of their income.
Anyhow, it is one of those problems where there is no easy or right answer. Canada has taken the approach that they will provide health care for everyone, but restrict the total number of services and enable the doctors to control access to these. In the U.S., they attitude seems to be that you can have the best in the world that you can pay for. Sounds like you can pay for yours, so, in that case, it's a great system. I don't know how often it happens (or perhaps our goverment is just feeding us stories), but you hate to read about people who have a heart attack and lose their house in the U.S.
Posted by: bb at
April 29, 2007 8:14 PM [link]
OT: USA medical care.
What I was implying in regards to Colonoscopies is that I don't believe that a man making 50K/yr with a wife and two kids in college or still living at home, will most likely not approach the medical care system in the USA for this test if he was told it would cost him 5K to find out if he has polyps. He is going to keep his fingers crossed and bank the $$$. In regards to me, I like the current system. I make a six figure income and have for several years. I live the American dream. I had an epidural injection for my low back last month. 2K most likely. I have not recieved the EOB telling me the cost. The colonoscopy, 5K, most likely. At 7500 usd out of pocket, I am going to get 1st class medical care for the rest of the year for free. I need to have a wrist tendon that I damaged and had repaired 1 1/2 years ago "touched up". I have hired Dr. Norman Zemel in Los Angeles to fix me. He is the hand surgeon of choice for the professional sports teams in the Los angeles area and beyond. My cost will be "0". Any preventative medicine; MRI's, etc. will be free until January 2008. Believe me, I will use it.
Posted by: stktrader at
April 29, 2007 8:21 PM [link]
BB,
Reasoned statements. The problem in my opinion in the US is a third payer system. Can you imagine myself, an orthopedic surgeon and an electrition deciding how much Kaimu should recieve for those flowers as opposed to the free markets. All healthcare providers are simply not equal. While general practioners controlling access to healthcare is better than governmental decision making the patient/client should have the ability to seek specialized care. Shouldn't I have the right to chose Bill Cara to manage my finances over some branch employee at Schwab based on their rate of returns and my ability to pay. Isn't this right of choice even more important when decisions affect my Life. M.D.'s in Canada make on the average half what they make in the U.S. Physician turnout rate from training institutions is on a downward trend and Entrance criteria is getting more and more lax in canada based on what collegues have told me. Their are real problems in both counties and world wide for that matter but this constant drumbeat to the marvels of socialized medicine without recognizing some of the major shortcomings is "uninformed".
None of the uninsured patients I operated on last week will lose their house, just their cancer, and the 5000K colonoscopy will help pay for the hospital cost,which is very different from hospital charge. Physician fees are waived in MOST of these cases.
I get a bit defensive when posters call others uninformed when they have clearly been in the trenches in an altruistic profession.
My anedotal experience is that many physicians in canada with Complex problems or who want to be considered for protocol entrance are treated in the U.S. I have never heard of a U.S. M.D. seeking treatment in Canada. Once again anedotal evidence but their are concrete examples on the ills of government control of health care.
Jock, I'm relieved that you got appropriate care...Take the time to write the physician a Thank you note, it means more to us than money, believe it or not.
Jim
Posted by: jamgar1 at
April 29, 2007 9:06 PM [link]
Greetings from spaceship earth, I am an avid reader of this blog I follow that price is king we trade prices so I know when to buy and when to sell but... I wonder if it is a good time to buy puts against the stocks that are over valued as well as the indexes. Any ideas of when and how to proceed.
Space ship earth over and out.
Posted by: trader at
April 29, 2007 9:47 PM [link]
correction...Jock should be stktrader
Jim
Posted by: jamgar1 at
April 29, 2007 9:52 PM [link]
ALOHA !!
M3 went over 12% last week and long term M3b is projected over 14% by 2008.
Link: http://www.nowandfutures.com/key_stats.html
For those who believe that the US government has any resolve to stop expanding money supply please observe the charts posted at the link and view past action. Money supply continuously expands at slower and faster rates but supply expands!
Posted by: kaimu at
April 29, 2007 10:22 PM [link]
jamgar1 - Ironically, I'm about to lose my cushy health insurance (after which I'll be in stktrader's situation) and am deliberating whether I should rush to get a colonoscopy now or just hope for the best.
"Livin' in America ... " - James Brown
Posted by: Jock at
April 29, 2007 10:25 PM [link]
Hoping for the best doesn't sound like the best plan. Feel free to email me if you need any advice
Jim
Posted by: jamgar1 at
April 29, 2007 10:40 PM [link]
OT- Horatio, let me give you a little background about myself. I work in Niagara Falls. I follow the Sabres, tolerate Don Cherry’s outbursts, and stop at Tim Hortons daily. As usual, I will be renting a cottage on the Canadian Lake Erie shore for a week this July. I take all my out-of town visitors to Niagara-on-the Lake. I’m going try to get my family to Toronto for a weekend sometime this year (damn that rising loonie!). I prefer Canadian radio and listen to the CBC regularly (the music stations are less repetitive and I like a non-US perspective on the news). Even the local PBS station in Buffalo carries a lot of Canadian-oriented programming due to the number of Canadian contributors to the station. I am currently the pharmacy director at a hospital that employs and serves many Canadians. My previous job (regrettably) was working for the local Blue Cross plan as part of the managed care nightmare. Like jamgar1, I’m happy to finally have a topic in which I feel knowledgeable enough to comment. (although I did manage to pick up some KRY in the low $3 range).
In my institution, our past medical director is Canadian, along with our main infectious disease doc, our director of nursing education, and one of the nursing supervisors. A Canadian pharmacist worked for me until recently, and we had a Canadian pharmacy student working part-time until he recently graduated and moved to………Erie, Pa.. The Dean of the Pharmacy School at SUNY- Buffalo is Canadian (and I’ve worked with his Canadian wife). Never mind the locals married to Canadians. And these are the Canadians I know about. It’s not like I go around asking where people live or grew up. These are just co-workers with whom I interact daily. And believe it or not, when working with Canadians who happen to work in the US healthcare system, the issue of Canadian healthcare comes up.
Anyway, I feel that I at least have enough background to have a discussion on the issue without being called “uninformed and blowing hot air”, eh?
Like bb pointed out, Canadians have a longer life expectancy than the US, while spending roughly half per capita. On the other hand, a premature newborn was recently helicoptored to Children’s Hospital of Buffalo because there wasn’t a single neonatal bed available anywhere in Ontario, up to and including Ottawa. I read once that there were more CT scanners in Buffalo than there were in all of Ontario (and I’m not sure which country’s health care system that indicts). The answer is probably somewhere down the middle.
But if US healthcare situation was as bad as Canadians (and the Canadian press) seem to believe, there would have been single payer coverage a long time ago. But it is actually pretty hard not to have health coverage in New York unless you are self-employed or unemployed (admittedly a couple of BIG gaps). Between Medicaid, Medicare, employer covered insurance, Child-Health Plus and Family-Health Plus (NY programs for the “working poor”), most people have some kind of coverage. VERY few have large deductable plans like stktrader, and when they do it is because they chose that plan over ones with lower copays but higher premiums.(I've never heard of an employer offering only a high deductable, traditional Blue Cross type plan.) And hospitals treat everybody as jangar1 discussed.
Go Sabres, eh!
Sure, the “rich” can travel out of town to visit highly regarded specialists of their choice, but I feel safe in saying that a family on Medicaid in the US has a much better health plan, better access to service, and lower fees than the average Ontario resident.
Posted by: Klingon288 at
April 29, 2007 10:57 PM [link]
trader,
I own 30 puts on the s & p 500. I bought them in March before the first sell off. I figured things would get worse by their June expiration. It appears to me that I was wrong. This market could outlast any put options that you might buy. Either go short if that is your forte, or wait for a good entry point to go long in the Cara accumulation zone on stocks that you follow.
Posted by: stktrader at
April 29, 2007 11:09 PM [link]
OT: Buy the way, along with that 5K deductable on my BC 5000 PP0 plan for myself, wife and 10 year old, I still have to pay 538.00/month insurance premiums. But I want to choose my own doctor where ever he or she is in the USA. My choice.
Posted by: stktrader at
April 29, 2007 11:14 PM [link]
RE: Health Care
I work in the health care industry for a payer. My location allows for a unique perspective on global health care that many never hear about or consider. I do not wish to beat the subject silly since it is off topic but have a few points:
1) Quality doctors. My hypothesis is that Canadian doctors are excellent but beaten down by an overwhelming system that does not allow for much job satisfaction. On the other hand, the best doctors in America flock to places like Los Angeles/Orange County, New York, Chicago, Dallas, Las Vegas, etc. The docs go where the people and money are; the rural patient has few if any choices.
2) For a $1500 plane ticket to Manila you can save $20,000-$100,000 for your procedure(s) and have them performed by US board certified Filipino doctor in a hotel suite setting. This is the future of US medical care. Sound familiar? It's been the mantra for manufacturing; why not professional jobs too. Soon Aetna and UNH will be arranging health care tourism because it reduces their costs and allows them to be more flexible with products and pricing.
My company is already selling a 100% coverage plans with a network that includes the Philippines, Hong Kong, Sinapore, Korea and Japan for 30-40% less than the same coverage with a US network (and making money!).
3) The real problem is people and their lifestyles. Is it a wonder why McDonalds, Altira and Diageo are huge winners? If people ate, smoked and drank less and exercised more then doctors and health care would be in much less demand.
Posted by: cb at
April 30, 2007 7:01 AM [link]
Dear People,
I had a colonoscopy a few years ago although I am now only 40. The weirdest thing among the weird is, in addition to anesthetic, they give you these drugs now that actually make you forget what you're experiencing while it's actually happening. It's the strangest feeling when you're done, as though you've been abducted by little green men and you can't quite remember what they've done with you, but your left with a strong urge to eat ice cream!
Chris
Posted by: shark_attack at
April 30, 2007 7:52 AM [link]
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I just don't know how much longer the market can ignore poor economic data. The GDP/Inflation data were an alarm bell IMO. And don't get me started on the home builders. The housing market is awful shape and the builders are struggling to stay alive at this point. Yet their stock prices have rallied since early April ... go figure.
And then there are the lenders. MTG is over $60 again, CFC is pushing $40. And so it goes.
As an aside, I have a general question for experienced investors on the topic of penny stock promotion. I have found a particular web site that lists certain stocks as "special opportunities". And when I explore a little further, I find that the author of the site has a substantial amount of restricted shares provided by the company.
Of course, I suppose there is nothing illegal with someone who is compensated for promoting a stock with shares, but you have to wonder how objective the information on that site is going to be when someone has a financial stake in promoting the stock.
So I thought it might be worthwhile cautioning investors about such stocks, especially when they increase in price substantially on large volume for no good fundamental reason.
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at
April 28, 2007 11:02 AM [link]