CNN aired an interview of Donald Trump by lead anchor Wolf Blitzer where Trump called President Bush, "probably the worst president in the history of the United States," adding that former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld was a "disaster".

And, about the Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, “… a lovely woman but she never makes a deal. She doesn't make deals. She waves. She gets off the plane, she waves. She sits down with some dictator, 45 degree angle. They do the camera shot. She waves again. She gets back on the plane. She waves. No deal ever happens.”

About the White house, Trump says, "I don't know what's going on. I just know they got us into a mess, the likes of which this country has probably never seen. It's one of the great catastrophes of all time."

The world is watching.

Later in the evening, ABC News Barbara Walters interviewed Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez who says that with a name like Nicky Chavez, he’d be a popular political candidate in the US. Like I say, interesting times.

Walters: "As I talk with you, you are a very dignified man, but we have heard you call the President of the United States a devil, a donkey, a drunk, a liar, a coward, a murderer. What does all this name-calling accomplish?"

Chavez: "Yes, I called him a devil in the United Nations. That's true. In another occasion, another time, I said that he was a donkey because I think that he is very ignorant about things that are actually happening in Latin America, and the world. If that is in excess on my part, I accept. And I might apologize. But who is causing more harm? Do I cause any harm by calling him a devil? He burns people, villages, and he invades nations."

I have always thought it is unfair to demonize people like Chavez or Bush, but frankly, last evening, I was surprised at just the opposite. Walters seemed to play up to Hugo Chavez, and her co-host even concluded by remarking about the man that he is very “impressive on TV”.

I am raising these items because something strange is going on in television today. It appears to me that America is starting to go overboard in its feeling bad about itself and to indulge in self-criticism. This is not good. There is a clear and present danger to capital markets should these emotions become obsessive.

A week ago I wrote,

We – the owners and managers of capital – are about to go into battle. The enemy is the economy, presently excessive market multiples, the constant random noise and misinformation of Talking Heads, and greatly heightened socio-political conflict in the world. Prices in our stock and bond markets are likely to come under fire. If we are not prepared to defend and to counter-attack, we will lose.

Most of you were unprepared in 2000 for the devastating capital losses that the People suffered through 2002. Back in 2000, I was not around to help as I was working 100-hour weeks to build what is now a successful national securities brokerage, but I am here today.

My concern is that many of you will obsess over the negatives that proliferate in Bear markets, which may cause you to miss the buying opportunities that, in time, will appear.

Just remember the expression, “Things are never that good, and they are never that bad.” As we move forward in time, there is a constant reversion to the mean.

If you remain objective and independent in your thinking, you’ll be able to see all that.

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Global Market Summary

International Equities: Yes, I noted that, a week ago, the markets had bounced back, but not by much. This week they continued to sink. The Nikkei 225 dropped -2.45 pct, while the EWJ (Japan market ETF trading in the US in USD) dropped -1.91 pct. The FTSE 100 of the UK dropped -1.84 pct while the EWU (UK market ETF trading in the US in USD) dropped -1.46 pct.

U.S. Equities : All broad indexes fell a little. The higher beta Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 small cap indexes dropped -0.62 pct and -0.81 pct respectively, while the usually more staid S&P 500 and Dow 30 dropped -1.13 pct and -1.35 pct W/W. General Motors (GM -5.9 pct) was enough on its own to sink the Dow 30 a little more than the others. Other than a technical bounce on Wednesday afternoon, there was not much this week for the Bulls to write home about.

Dow 30 : This week it was 22 down and 8 up. A week ago, the numbers were reversed. The biggest winner W/W was AT&T (T +1.2 pct). Together with a prior week gain of +0.3 pct, that equals the loss of -1.5 pct two weeks ago. Let’s not kid ourselves that things are good. Over the past four weeks (see Table 14), all 30 of the Dow 30 are DOWN. GM is down -20 pct; Intel and Home Depot are down -10 pct, and the big banks (my whipping boy, HBB) have been hammered: Citigroup down -8.6 pct; JP Morgan down -8.2 pct. Giants Exxon Mobil (-7.3 pct) and Microsoft (-7.5 pct) are right in line. That’s quite a month.

U.S. Sector ETFs: Only one (XLU) of my ten sector ETF’s was up this week, whereas all ten had been up the previous week. Consumer Discretionary Spending (XLY), the worst this week, was down -2.5 pct, and over four weeks is down -6.6 pct. Only Financials (XLF) (-7.3 pct) is a worse performer over four weeks. So this pull-back is not about gold, and it has zero to do with day traders or Hugo Chavez or Donald Trump. The problem is the shaky US housing and mortgage markets, and the potential impact on the economy and on personal spending and consumption.

First segment: most influenced by global commodities, forex and capex spending
10: Energy (XLE): #8 (-1.8 pct); Despite crashing oil prices
15: Basic Materials (XLB): #2 (-0.6 pct); Tin, nickel and copper squeeze
20: Industrials (XLI): #3 (-0.6 pct); Fedex (FDX) got whacked
Second segment: most influenced by U.S. consumer spending and economic growth
25: Cons. Discretionary (XLY): #10 (-2.5 pct); More horror, worsened by GM
30: Cons. Staples (XLP): #5 (-1.1 pct); OK for WAG, but 9 of 10 down
35: Healthcare (IYH): #6 (-1.2 pct); JNJ and AMGN pulling things down
Third segment: most influenced by U.S. interest rates and general economic health
40: Financial (XLF): #9 (-2.4 pct); Down -5.2 pct YTD
45: Tech (SMH chips): #7 (-1.5 pct); QCOM jumped +8.8 pct
50: Telecom Service (IYZ): #4 (-0.8 pct); This winner only up +1.75 pct YTD
55: Utilities (XLU): #1 (-0.5 pct); From first to last to first.

Bonds: The US Bond market eked out small gains. Interesting how the experts want the Fed to drop rates “because of the economy” – No, it’s because their stocks and bonds are falling.

Commodities: $CRB lost -3.62 (-1.18 pct) W/W because Crude Oil got hammered -4.33/bbl. But, wait, wasn’t there a major drawdown of distillates and gasoline this week? And, when that happens, don’t we usually see sharp price hikes in Crude Oil? Interesting that whenever the US stock market needs to be goosed, the oil price conveniently drops like a stone.

Oil & Gas: $WTIC futures dropped -4.33 (-7.01 pct) W/W to 57.44, after nine straight weeks on the plus side. Those OPEC Ministers must be fraidy-cats. NOT! I suspect there was Fed/Aministration intervention. It could be simply profit-taking, but why take profits in $USD-priced oil when the $USD is getting hammered?

Gold: The Precious Metals made some headway after Friday’s gains on the back of a rapidly falling $USD. Base metals were stronger again this week, and traders are asking if just four companies (BHP, Rio Tinto, Xstrata and CVRD) are now sufficiently powerful and aggressive to squeeze the shorts. Tin, Nickel and Copper zoomed.

Goldminers: Mixed performance again although Friday was a good day. I think that if and when gold starts trading comfortably in the 650-700 range in the next few days and weeks, the miners will pick up strength.

Forex: The $USD took some heavy losses this week, dropping -1.23 pct to close at 83.21. With the Bank of Japan’s fiscal year to end March 31, there is widespread discussion that the carry trade will be winding down, thereby putting upward pressure on the Yen. The tightening by the People’s Bank of China this week also ought to put more stress on the $USD.

Economic calendar for next week.

A week ago, I wrote, “The focus is returning to inflation.” Central banks around the world have a need to raise up their key lending rates, but the Fed is between a rock and a hard place. Yes, this is a classic case of stagflation, which, unless resolved, will ultimately take down equity prices, and keep bond prices from rallying, which is the usual kick-off for the next Bull market in stocks.

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Cara Stock Watch

It strikes me that rallies in stock prices are becoming ever more selective, and for the most part are able to take current prices only back to falling 50-day Moving Average lines at which point there is more selling.

Here are the Cara 100 gainers on Friday.

Interactive chart of the top 12 Watch List gainers

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Here are the top Cara 100 losers for Friday.

Interactive chart of the top 12 Watch List losers (Interactive link)

RIMM is now out of the Cara 100, which will be the Cara 99 until I find a replacement.

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Sector ETF Review

The tables I show are for ten Sector Index Funds (ETF’s) only.

As for this week’s prices, of the ten sector ETF’s I follow here, only 1 of 10 (XLU) was up this week. XLU is the only one up over four weeks too, but barely.

The following table is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Table 1: Cara ETF List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
XLU	38.40	-0.37	-0.95%	0.52%	0.66%	0.58%	4.29%	3.95%	13.71%	18.26%
XLB	37.10	-0.35	-0.93%	-0.56%	1.78%	-2.08%	7.19%	4.89%	19.02%	14.54%
XLI	35.25	0.00	0.00%	-0.56%	1.18%	-4.24%	0.06%	0.14%	7.70%	4.72%
IYZ	30.18	-0.08	-0.26%	-0.79%	0.20%	-2.55%	1.75%	1.89%	9.95%	16.71%
XLP	25.93	-0.20	-0.77%	-1.11%	0.15%	-3.50%	-1.33%	-0.50%	1.37%	7.59%
IYH	65.77	-0.20	-0.30%	-1.22%	-0.35%	-4.94%	-1.04%	-1.02%	0.35%	1.34%
SMH	34.09	-0.25	-0.73%	-1.50%	1.28%	-1.19%	1.55%	-0.50%	-0.76%	-4.30%
XLE	56.39	-0.80	-1.40%	-1.76%	0.61%	-2.76%	-0.34%	-7.57%	8.76%	3.47%
XLF	35.02	-0.28	-0.79%	-2.37%	-1.35%	-7.28%	-5.15%	-4.34%	2.55%	5.55%
XLY	37.32	-0.20	-0.53%	-2.46%	-1.22%	-6.58%	-3.12%	-2.94%	8.30%	9.86%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, simply go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s. I do that frequently because the list of ETF’s growing incredibly fast.

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10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

This week, XLE lost -1.76 pct to 56.39. $WTIC (Crude futures) lost -4.33/bbl (-7.01 pct) to $57.44.

The inventory drawdown in distillates and gasoline was significant. The winter storm in the northeast was significant. The OPEC Ministers in session was significant. But, somehow, the price collapsed.

I think it started in Texas.

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Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

XLE Hourly data:

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
CVX	68.08	-0.79	-1.15%	-0.57%	1.93%	-4.60%	-4.07%	-9.68%	10.18%	17.91%
CEO	80.13	-1.14	-1.40%	-1.03%	0.63%	-4.13%	-15.00%	-10.82%	-1.99%	-1.57%
TOT	65.19	0.09	0.14%	-1.57%	-0.29%	-7.07%	-8.14%	-10.11%	3.41%	-0.24%
XOM	69.86	-0.83	-1.17%	-1.77%	-0.21%	-7.27%	-5.73%	-9.62%	8.06%	13.34%
STO	24.83	-0.17	-0.68%	-2.44%	-1.62%	-5.55%	-3.35%	-10.13%	2.94%	-7.70%
SU	67.83	-1.09	-1.58%	-3.98%	-1.99%	-8.72%	-8.23%	-16.16%	0.70%	-11.54%
ECA	45.92	-1.06	-2.26%	-4.11%	-2.28%	-6.70%	1.28%	-8.18%	0.86%	-4.55%
PBR	86.18	-1.38	-1.58%	-4.53%	-0.34%	-7.88%	-13.53%	-11.74%	8.74%	-4.65%
IMO	33.94	-0.18	-0.53%	-5.17%	-0.91%	-7.01%	-4.82%	-9.88%	0.77%	-67.14%

For my general view of Big Oil, please turn to my assessment of (Cara 100) Exxon Mobil in the Dow 30 Value Line reports commentary near the end of this WIR. Hint: it’s not very positive.

I continue to believe that Crude Oil ($WTIC) will stay in a trading range between 55 and 65 for the near future. A serious recession could take the price below that trading range, but not for more than one or two quarters I believe.

The Oil Refiners still look interesting, relatively speaking, particularly when oil trades at the low end of its trading range. Two names that Citi likes are Sunoco Inc (SUN) and Valero Energy (VLO) for reasons of (i) margin dynamics and (ii) multiple new projects coming on-stream in 2007.

SUN (65.90) and VLO (60.01) hit cycle lows in Sept and Jan with RSI-7’s down at 30. With the Weekly RSI-7 now at 58.8 and 69.6 respectively, the price has gotten away.

But the next cycle low where the Weekly-Daily RSI-7 is down to about 30 for SUN and VLO, I’d be a buyer of both. You might even see the stocks down to 56 and 48 respectively at that point.

Citi has 12-month Price Targets (PT) of 85 and 71 for each. If you catch the 56 and 48 prices, and sell at those PT’s, that would mean a Return (excluding dividends) of +52 pct and +48 pct respectively.

Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

The Canadian energy stocks got whacked: IMO -5.2 pct, ECA -4.1 pct, SU -4.0 pct. PetroBrasil (PBR) was also hit -4.5 pct.

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Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

The Basic Materials ETF (XLB) was again the 2nd best ETF performer out of 10. XLB lost -0.56 pct W/W after dropping -0.93 pct on Friday. XLB closed at 37.10.

Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

XLB Hourly data:

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
BHP	44.14	0.08	0.18%	2.91%	6.13%	-3.33%	13.56%	9.31%	17.58%	21.00%
PKX	101.34	-1.66	-1.61%	1.64%	8.21%	6.12%	27.58%	20.79%	64.94%	62.93%
RIO	35.46	-0.46	-1.28%	1.43%	8.44%	-1.83%	23.04%	18.52%	70.07%	57.60%
AA	33.48	-0.40	-1.18%	0.84%	2.39%	-3.54%	14.15%	7.86%	19.02%	10.75%
RTP	210.40	-0.41	-0.19%	-0.12%	1.95%	-5.08%	3.09%	-4.52%	13.80%	8.90%
GGB	16.49	-0.15	-0.90%	-3.23%	1.41%	-11.77%	0.43%	1.92%	18.89%	-32.67%
TCK	65.64	-0.88	-1.32%	-3.61%	-3.64%	-12.71%	-5.21%	-16.57%	9.89%	0.00%
NUE	61.66	-1.68	-2.65%	-4.05%	4.97%	-5.57%	13.14%	4.17%	31.86%	27.29%
MT	50.05	-0.30	-0.60%	-4.06%	-2.42%	-0.10%	22.67%	19.57%	48.38%	42.19%
TS	41.48	-0.34	-0.81%	-6.41%	-7.33%	-12.45%	-14.51%	-18.70%	18.21%	12.41%

The jury is still out as to whether or not the Fed intends to continue pumping liquidity into the economy at the excessive rate it has been. That will be the biggest determinant of prices in this sector.

As for this week, huge miner BHP was up +2.9 pct, but many of the steels suffered a sell-off. Tenaris was down -6.4 pct, Mittal and Nucor each dropped -4.1 pct W/W.

The extra TS price drop was probably linked to the -7 pct loss in Crude Oil because they supply the oil drillers and pipelines with tube steel.

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Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

The Industrials and Transport sector ETF (XLI), aka capital goods producers, was down -0.56 pct W/W to close at 35.25.

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Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

XLI Hourly data:

Table 4 Senior capital goods makers and transportation:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
MMM	75.28	-0.71	-0.93%	0.74%	3.11%	-2.12%	-3.81%	-3.87%	1.54%	0.52%
BA	90.00	-1.04	-1.14%	0.55%	3.41%	-1.86%	0.93%	-0.77%	19.98%	17.29%
UTX	64.60	0.20	0.31%	0.16%	0.39%	-6.28%	2.85%	3.44%	-0.02%	10.94%
GE	34.36	-0.16	-0.46%	0.12%	-1.46%	-4.93%	-9.51%	-8.03%	-1.41%	-0.06%
ABB	16.76	0.01	0.06%	-0.53%	1.45%	-9.31%	-5.95%	-1.59%	25.64%	36.04%
HON	46.94	-0.04	-0.09%	-0.61%	2.24%	-1.32%	4.08%	7.61%	18.09%	10.21%
ERJ	44.85	-0.20	-0.44%	-1.28%	0.76%	-1.17%	9.98%	3.20%	10.17%	12.21%
CAT	63.16	-0.30	-0.47%	-1.93%	0.19%	-6.60%	3.27%	2.17%	-3.47%	-15.67%
FDX	111.14	-0.74	-0.66%	-3.08%	-1.21%	-5.24%	1.25%	-3.41%	4.95%	-2.94%

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With the Dow Transports moving up over 5000, Colin Twiggs opined a month ago, “The Dow Transports have confirmed the primary Bull market.” Three weeks ago, he was starting to look at technical support levels at 4500 for a possible Bear case. Then two weeks ago, the 5000 support level was easily smashed as global markets cratered.

I have opined all along that I no longer consider the Dow Transports (led by international powerhouse Fedex) to be a significant Dow Theory indicator. The world economy has changed. Besides, I have said, I think FDX shares were used as an instrument by the Bulls to in a sense prove their Bull case (ie, in another sense, to mislead the public).

Fedex (FDX) was hammered this week (-3.1 pct). The very long-term rising trend line appears to have been pierced on the downside.

UPS (-1.94 pct W/W) has been a dog since December when I believe the Bulls started pushing FDX as the “bellwhether”. And, UPS is sitting on a very very long-term support of 66. A break below 66 will set off a wave of selling in the Industrials (GICS 20), I believe. In fact I believe UPS and FDX have to both be considered bellwhethers of economic strength or weakness, particularly in North America and Europe.

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Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

The Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) was down 2.46 pct W/W to close at 37.32.

Just a week ago, I suggested after a single week of recovery, that, “Now technicians will be looking to see if a rising price can take the sector back up through the 50-day (10-week) Moving Average (39.09)” I guess not.

If consumers are facing inflated bills/cost of living, and they are in debt and digging into savings at a rate not seen for generations, and their home equity is no longer available as a personal ATM, I somehow add the evidence to a conclusion that XLY is going either sideways or down.

Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

XLY Hourly data:

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
EBAY	31.74	-0.05	-0.16%	3.02%	2.95%	-5.73%	5.20%	-3.58%	13.97%	-17.28%
NKE	107.47	1.81	1.71%	1.53%	3.48%	1.86%	10.03%	11.89%	29.53%	24.94%
SBUX	30.56	0.95	3.21%	0.82%	2.28%	-8.06%	-13.30%	-16.09%	-9.72%	-15.53%
JCP	79.47	-0.26	-0.33%	-1.05%	0.84%	-7.44%	1.81%	-0.08%	22.77%	27.13%
CCL	45.55	-0.06	-0.13%	-1.53%	-0.33%	-6.39%	-10.60%	-4.49%	3.97%	-8.95%
DIS	33.61	-0.18	-0.53%	-2.21%	-1.00%	-3.06%	-1.73%	-2.01%	10.89%	17.19%
TM	129.90	-0.84	-0.64%	-2.43%	0.63%	-5.02%	-3.99%	3.29%	22.36%	20.36%
WHR	84.09	-0.42	-0.50%	-4.28%	-3.26%	-9.19%	-0.67%	2.19%	-5.11%	-3.94%
BC	31.57	-0.03	-0.09%	-5.14%	-1.83%	-5.20%	-1.10%	-2.23%	4.47%	-16.39%

A week ago, I wrote, “The gains by Brunswick (BC) +3.5 pct, Toyota (TM) +3.1 pct, and Nike (NKE) and JC Penny (JCP) +1.9 pct hardly qualify as a recovery.” I guess you were listening because this week, Brunswick (BC) -5.1 pct, Toyota (TM) -2.4 pct, and JC Penny (JCP) -1.1 pct got whacked. NKE was up +1.5 pct W/W only after jumping +1.7 pct on Friday.

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Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

The Consumer Staples sector ETF (XLP) dropped -1.11 pct W/W to close at $25.93. The loss on Friday was -0.77 pct.

Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

XLP Hourly data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
WAG	46.26	0.54	1.18%	3.75%	4.76%	0.35%	0.41%	3.96%	-7.41%	2.94%
PEP	62.57	-0.42	-0.67%	-0.49%	-0.57%	-2.36%	-0.24%	-0.48%	-3.78%	4.46%
KO	47.21	0.13	0.28%	-0.76%	2.88%	-1.34%	-2.82%	-3.52%	5.85%	10.59%
PG	61.61	-0.30	-0.48%	-0.88%	-2.45%	-5.20%	-4.54%	-3.90%	1.17%	3.74%
BUD	49.64	-0.26	-0.52%	-1.12%	3.12%	-4.08%	0.85%	2.48%	4.92%	14.54%
DEO	75.79	-0.14	-0.18%	-1.44%	-1.58%	-7.83%	-4.70%	-2.87%	8.01%	15.87%
ABV	51.76	-0.57	-1.09%	-1.56%	6.41%	-4.38%	5.42%	6.59%	14.95%	17.00%
MO	84.73	-0.02	-0.02%	-2.45%	1.50%	-1.57%	-2.06%	-0.56%	1.91%	14.65%
WMT	46.21	0.21	0.46%	-2.55%	-3.35%	-4.45%	-2.82%	-0.52%	-4.17%	-0.32%
WFMI	44.22	-0.26	-0.58%	-3.91%	-4.35%	-3.99%	-2.77%	-9.87%	-21.48%	-29.60%

Our case study, Whole Foods Market (WFMI) dropped another -3.9 pct and Wal-Mart (WMT) dipped -2.6 pct W/W.

For some reason, Walgreen (WAG) was up +3.8 pct on the week. The Edward Jones analyst says it has something to do with “contractual alliances” following the $27 billion merger of CVS Corp (CVS) and Caremark Rx (CMX).

But, isn’t that another word for “price fixing”?

As for WMT, I find it interesting that the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp (FDIC) chairman applauded the Wal-Mart management decision to not go full-out into banking like Volkswagen AG (VLKAY), Pitney Bowes Inc. (PBI) and Target Corp. (TGT).

Give me a break! What risk did the FDIC have if Wal-Mart became a national bank other than the chairman having to listen to the anti-competitor screams from oligopolist Humungous Bank & Broker?

I guess these people think if it’s ok for HBB, then it’s ok for America. But I think my money would be safer in Wal-Mart than in some of those small town banks that may have over played the Sub-prime mortgage card.

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Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

The IYH healthcare ETF dropped -1.22 pct W/W to close at 65.77.

Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

IYH Monthly data:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

IYH Hourly data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
NVS	57.11	0.75	1.33%	1.49%	4.01%	-4.34%	-1.77%	-2.54%	0.09%	1.93%
BMET	42.25	0.07	0.17%	0.31%	0.12%	-0.24%	1.88%	0.60%	24.67%	16.30%
UNH	53.13	-0.92	-1.70%	0.25%	-1.94%	-0.90%	1.07%	6.07%	1.76%	-6.08%
DNA	81.48	0.67	0.83%	-0.12%	-1.58%	-6.19%	-0.39%	0.85%	3.15%	-1.34%
BMY	26.82	-0.30	-1.11%	-0.37%	1.51%	-3.42%	1.67%	4.72%	7.62%	17.53%
AET	43.19	0.52	1.22%	-1.26%	-2.31%	-4.11%	0.72%	-0.02%	10.15%	-15.92%
PFE	24.99	0.00	0.00%	-1.65%	0.81%	-5.80%	-4.94%	-2.54%	-10.88%	-4.07%
GSK	54.55	-0.17	-0.31%	-1.87%	-0.11%	-5.38%	1.38%	4.96%	-1.45%	0.06%
AMGN	59.28	-0.75	-1.25%	-2.60%	-4.00%	-13.18%	-13.33%	-15.58%	-15.04%	-19.72%
JNJ	60.51	-0.02	-0.03%	-2.62%	-2.32%	-8.03%	-8.87%	-8.72%	-5.14%	0.82%

JNJ and AMGN each dropped -2.6 pct on the week. NVS was up +1.5 pct. Nothing much going on here.

My corticosteroids came from GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) and my doctor didn’t even know that’s a Cara 100 company. (LOL)

An even bigger laugh is that I purchased those GSK drugs at noon on Wed the 14th – when the stock hit a low. It’s called helping one another. (LOL)

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Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

The Financials ETF (XLF) dropped -2.37 pct W/W to close at 35.02. That’s the 2nd worst performer this week and the worst over the past four weeks.

Do you recall me saying something a few weeks back about getting the customers to line up deck chairs on the Titanic, while the Bankers were busy operating the lifeboats?

Yes, it is important to watch the loan loss provisions, and the margin calls, and the litigation, of the big banks from this point on.

I think you want to watch the stock performance of the top-rated “Gold”man Sachs (GS).

Is the GS Weekly RSI now going to roll over at a much lower cycle high? Is any rally here going to stop at the falling Moving Average lines?

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Here’s the XLF Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLF Monthly data:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

XLF Hourly data:

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
CSR	59.15	-0.11	-0.19%	2.76%	6.25%	7.66%	-1.68%	0.00%	6.50%	7.12%
GS	199.00	-1.89	-0.94%	-1.34%	1.70%	-8.22%	-0.86%	-0.42%	22.30%	34.74%
C	49.53	-0.60	-1.20%	-1.59%	-0.88%	-8.63%	-10.35%	-8.40%	0.69%	4.67%
UBS	57.15	0.28	0.49%	-1.96%	-1.21%	-8.40%	-6.91%	-5.91%	0.05%	4.25%
MS	74.41	-0.48	-0.64%	-2.09%	1.38%	-10.15%	-8.83%	-6.12%	4.88%	24.14%
HBC	85.77	-0.31	-0.36%	-2.74%	-0.58%	-4.35%	-7.74%	-6.17%	-4.69%	0.09%
JPM	47.03	-0.67	-1.40%	-3.67%	-2.41%	-8.16%	-2.16%	-2.63%	0.17%	13.82%
MER	79.90	-0.25	-0.31%	-3.68%	-2.75%	-14.64%	-14.65%	-12.73%	3.55%	2.77%
DB	125.06	1.54	1.25%	-3.79%	-2.13%	-11.13%	-7.60%	-5.90%	6.52%	9.59%
LEH	71.19	-1.84	-2.52%	-6.12%	-1.26%	-14.53%	-9.46%	-6.45%	-0.59%	-0.03%

A week ago I wrote, “The LEH, MS and GS stocks put on a brave face, recovering with gains of +5.2 pct, +3.5 pct and +3.1 pct respectively. But, even with these sizeable gains, over four weeks LEH, MS and GS are still down -10.2 pct, -8.2 pct, and -5.7 pct respectively.”

Things got worse this week. But isn’t it wondrous that the rally cry of the Bulls last week was that HBB was buying up those devastated Sub-Prime Mortgage companies? Did that story comfort you? NOT!

Yes, it was the litigators employed by HBB that started the whole fiasco. Kick them while they are down. Kinda reminded me of the old days when HBB sent out margin calls in a Bear market only to have their prop trading desk pick the babies out of the bathwater.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Anyway, after four weeks, LEH, MS and GS have lost -14.5 pct, -10.2 pct and -8.2 pct respectively. I wonder how many HBB insiders who are issuing Buy recommendations to clients today are actually also selling stock in their Friends & Family accounts?

I wonder if HBB compliance actually checks on that?

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Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)

This week SMH dropped -1.50 pct to close at 34.09. Friday was half the loss.

Boy, hasn’t SMH been a dog’s breakfast for several years? No matter, when the next great Bull market starts, SMH will probably be a leader.

Alternatively; when SMH comes out of the doldrums, get set for fast markets across the fleet.

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Here’s the SMH Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

SMH Monthly data:

SMH Weekly data:

SMH Daily data:

SMH Hourly data:

Table 9: Senior technology equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
QCOM	43.68	-0.04	-0.09%	8.82%	10.64%	5.74%	16.60%	10.58%	18.66%	-12.41%
SNDK	40.57	-0.07	-0.17%	2.94%	7.16%	-1.41%	-2.76%	-4.56%	-30.66%	-26.10%
ORCL	16.68	-0.04	-0.24%	0.30%	-0.18%	-1.18%	-4.74%	-5.66%	2.14%	23.56%
INTC	19.15	0.01	0.05%	0.26%	-0.36%	-10.14%	-5.90%	-8.55%	-1.95%	-2.54%
ADBE	39.17	0.48	1.24%	0.03%	1.32%	-0.15%	-1.88%	-8.50%	5.86%	9.02%
CSCO	25.99	0.18	0.70%	-0.35%	2.73%	-5.73%	-6.31%	-5.70%	14.04%	22.36%
SAP	45.34	0.15	0.33%	-1.50%	-1.90%	-4.18%	-14.77%	-12.18%	-6.78%	-14.44%
CTSH	88.83	-0.17	-0.19%	-2.92%	2.19%	-5.97%	14.24%	10.43%	24.12%	56.53%
ADSK	37.40	-0.26	-0.69%	-2.96%	-6.01%	-12.23%	-7.79%	-10.55%	4.50%	-3.98%
INFY	51.22	-0.61	-1.18%	-5.18%	-3.59%	-14.07%	-8.24%	-6.43%	9.19%	42.32%

ADSK this week was down a further –3.0 pct, which makes it -12.2 pct over four weeks. Only (Cara 100) InfoSys (INFY -14.1 pct) is worse, and that happened after plunging -5.2 pct this week.

INFY enjoyed a terrific 2H06 and early part of the year, but it’s an India-based company, which tends to make the share trading more volatile. INFY got whacked in the past few weeks, and there is now the long-term Moving Average line of support to consider. If that doesn’t hold, it would be a further signal of market weakness to come.

Following a Bear market, INFY will be a leading pick of mine.

Intel (INTC) gained a little this week (+0.3 pct) to 19.15, but the four-week performance is still a sad -10.1 pct.

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Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)

The U.S. telco sector ETF (IYZ) dropped -0.79 pct W/W, which is not much.

The first leg up in a new Bull market usually shows strength in the regulated telcos and utilities and in the commercial banks.

As I wrote last week, “This time around, however, maybe it’s best to avoid, for a time, the financials that hold defaulting debt.”

I’m avoiding the Telco’s too, for now, but along with the Techs, following a Bear market, I expect them to do well ahead of most the other sectors, particularly the smaller, more aggressive companies with exciting new IP (Internet Protocol) technologies, particularly in video.

AT&T (T) rallied +1.2 pct this week, which actually put it at #1 Dow 30 performer. Verizon (VZ) was, I believe, #10 performer, and lost a bit of ground. Verizon doesn’t have as good a dividend yield.

T looks a bit top-heavy today. It’s had quite a run, and may start to side-track from here. For now, however, I cannot see how the huge dividend yield at T would not protect the stock in a Bear, at least to some extent.

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Here’s the IYZ Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

IYZ Monthly data:

IYZ Weekly data:

IYZ Daily data:

IYZ Hourly data:

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Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)

The Utilities ETF (XLU) has gone from 1st to last to 1st performer of my ten sector ETF’s.

It will usually do well when bonds do well, as they did this week. That’s because Utility companies hold a lot of bonds on the balance sheet. It’s also because Utility companies typically pay a high dividend to demanding shareholders and when the bond yields go down (and bond prices up), the competition for yield from the income-oriented accounts is not so great.

This week, XLU gained +0.52 pct, to close at 38.40.

Of some concern was Friday when XLU dropped -0.95 pct on the day. That was the day the $USD dropped a lot, after the CPI (and earlier PPI) data came out, indicating an inflation problem. Utilities shareholders don’t like inflation!

Why is that? Regulated entities don’t have pricing power. But they do have rising costs, which rise more quickly during inflation.

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Here’s the XLU Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLU Monthly data:

XLU Weekly data:

XLU Daily data:

XLU Hourly data:

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Bond & Interest Rate Review

US Treasury bonds improved modestly in price as the yields dropped -3, -5, -8, and -7 basis points (bp) to 4.67 pct, 4.52 pct, 4.45 pct and 4.57 pct respectively on the 30-year, 10-year, 5-year and 2-year paper. And, the T-Bill yield dropped from 4.93 pct to 4.87 this week, which is a -14 bp move from 5.01 pct in just two weeks, so traders are thinking that the Fed is about to drop rates.

I continue to ask if this rapid decline in T-Bill yields is a signal that traders believe that stock prices are going to fall and the Fed will bail out the equity market or could it be a flight to safety?

On its own, the recently released economic data points (eg, PPI and CPI) do not offer up any rationale for rapidly falling Treasury yields. Hence, if there is any recovery here in stock prices, I expect these yields to move back up – as they did a week ago.

In other words, I do not yet believe that traders are betting on recession and deflation. Metals and precious metals prices lifted this week, and the inflation data that the US govt published on Thursday and Friday shows no let up in the inflation cycle.

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Interest rates and bond yields.

Weekly data charts:

Interactive Daily data charts:

Interactive Hourly data charts:

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US Treasury Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
3 Month	4.87	4.87	4.92	4.99
6 Month	4.89	4.88	4.90	4.92
2 Year	4.57	4.55	4.64	4.85
3 Year	4.49	4.47	4.57	4.74
5 Year	4.45	4.44	4.53	4.70
10 Year	4.52	4.52	4.57	4.72
30 Year	4.67	4.67	4.70	4.84

Municipal Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	3.50	3.47	3.48	3.63
2yr AAA	3.48	3.50	3.47	3.63
2yr A	3.65	3.65	3.56	3.61
5yr AAA	3.51	3.51	3.51	3.66
5yr AA	3.46	3.46	3.59	3.58
5yr A	3.57	3.57	3.62	3.66
10yr AAA	3.63	3.63	3.63	3.78
10yr AA	3.59	3.60	3.58	3.76
10yr A	3.93	3.93	3.93	4.08
20yr AAA	4.18	4.13	4.14	4.16
20yr AA	4.48	4.05	4.07	4.02
20yr A	4.08	4.02	3.99	4.13

Corporate Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	4.96	4.94	4.98	5.12
2yr A	4.98	4.97	5.02	5.18
5yr AAA	4.93	4.91	4.99	5.12
5yr AA	5.05	5.03	5.08	5.19
5yr A	5.06	5.04	5.09	5.24
10yr AAA	5.14	5.12	5.18	5.45
10yr AA	5.38	5.36	5.42	5.47
10yr A	5.42	5.40	5.44	5.52
20yr AAA	5.81	5.75	5.75	5.76
20yr AA	5.68	5.68	6.30	5.84
20yr A	5.95	5.89	5.89	5.89

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Interactive Chart of Interest rates and bond yields.

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TLT and AGG had modest gains this week of +0.51 pct and +0.35 pct.

Fannie (FNM) (-3.2 pct), Freddie (FRE) (-4.0 pct) and Countrywide Financial (CFC) (-3.2 pct W/W), along with the broad Financial sector (XLF) (-2.4 pct), all were hit hard as traders started to realize that the housing and mortgage market problems are greater than just in the Sub-prime area.

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Monthly Data Charts

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SHY Monthly data series chart:

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IEF Monthly data series chart:

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TLT Monthly data series chart:

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AGG Monthly data series chart:

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LQD Monthly data series chart:

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TIP Monthly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

SHY Weekly data series chart:

IEF Weekly data series chart:

TLT Weekly data series chart:

AGG Weekly data series chart:

LQD Weekly data series chart:

TIP Weekly data series chart:

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It’s possible that stocks and bonds will now start to trade countercyclically, ie, as bonds fall, stocks rally or as bonds rally, stocks fall.

US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Hourly Data Charts

SHY Hourly data series chart:

IEF Hourly data series chart:

TLT Hourly data series chart:

AGG Hourly data series chart:

LQD Hourly data series chart:

TIP Hourly data series chart:

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Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
TIP	100.98	0.06	0.06%	0.53%	-0.08%	1.87%	1.76%	1.13%	0.83%	-1.00%
TLT	89.86	0.11	0.12%	0.51%	-0.34%	1.73%	0.89%	0.14%	2.74%	0.83%
IEF	83.55	-0.01	-0.01%	0.49%	-0.02%	1.20%	1.05%	0.48%	1.85%	1.25%
AGG	100.58	0.01	0.01%	0.35%	-0.07%	0.44%	0.67%	0.29%	1.34%	0.76%
SHY	80.37	0.00	0.00%	0.21%	0.09%	0.36%	0.41%	0.25%	0.44%	0.32%
CFC	34.96	-0.51	-1.44%	-3.16%	-5.56%	-16.40%	-16.98%	-16.18%	0.29%	-2.18%
FNM	53.79	-0.30	-0.55%	-3.19%	-1.93%	-8.83%	-10.14%	-10.80%	0.04%	0.67%
FRE	59.52	-1.29	-2.12%	-3.95%	-4.29%	-10.08%	-12.33%	-13.73%	-7.53%	-7.23%

I’m thinking that with CFC, FRE and FNM continuing their descent, the issue has more to do with accounting provisions for loan losses than with interest rates.

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Hourly Data Charts

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Somebody asked if it was time to buy Countrywide Financial (CFC). I think CFC was good for a short-term trade on Tuesday after the Weekly and Daily RSI-7 dipped below 30. But not now.

Today the Monthly-Weekly-Daily RSI-7 for CFC is 40.7/24.9/38.5. Before buying CFC, I first want to see all three values below the 30 line and the Daily and Hourly numbers on the rebound. I’d also feel better if FNM and FRE was in similar territory.

As for the Talking Heads at that point, I could not care less. In fact, if the RSI numbers are in the Accumulation Zone, I frankly don’t give a darn what anybody says or writes.

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Commodities Review

The Commodities Index ($CRB) dropped this week -3.62 (-1.18 pct), closing at 304.44. As metals and precious metals lifted a bit; the damage was in the energy sector, mostly in Crude Oil ($WTIC down -7.0 pct).

There could be a rally in $CRB, but I continue to believe that the “Weekly and Daily charts of the $CRB look awfully much like any rally would be headed off by a falling MA line at about 316.”

Also, as I wrote a week or two ago, “The cycle high and low is 316.40 and 303.99. If $CRB drops below 303, that would be a negative for the commodity players.” We’re awfully close now.

I also incorrectly opined at the time that “If Crude Oil drops back under 60, I believe that $CRB would fall below the current 50-Day MA (300.80).”

Maybe it takes more than a day or two of Oil being below 60 before $CRB sets a new Daily cycle low (below 303). Let’s watch this index early in the week.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

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Oil:

After a string of weekly wins, $WTIC finally pulled back. Was it mere profit taking or were traders not impressed by the friendly talk of the OPEC Oil Ministers this week, as they seemed to be saying that 55 Oil would be ok with them.

West Texas Intermediate Crude ($WTIC) dropped a lot from 61.77 to 57.44, which is a loss of -7.01 pct W/W.

The 50-Day Moving Average (from StockCharts) is now 57.77, while the 200-Day MA is 64.34. Hence the current price (57.44) is below the 50-day MA (57.77), and well below the 200-day MA, which is technically bearish.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

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Gold:

Two weeks ago, $GOLD was smashed -42.60/oz (-6.20 pct). This week it was $WTIC -4.33/bbl (-7.01 pct). Could it be that the market is ignoring the rising inflation data (PPI/CPI this week) and looking ahead to the deflationary forces of a recession?

You always have to consider all possible market drivers. That way if you are wrong, you can see yourself beating your head against the wall each week.

I say no to deflation, but if $CRB falls to below 300, and $WTIC falls below 55, and $GOLD falls below its 200-day MA (around 624), then I have to say that I can only bounce my head off the wall so many times before I have to admit to pain. So, I watch these signs.

This week, $GOLD managed to eke out a small $1.90 gain (+0.29 pct) because of a big day Friday (+1.05 pct), to close at 653.90.

The 50day MA is now at 651.37 and the more important 200day MA is at 624.74. So technically $GOLD is bullish. That means $GOLD is forecasting inflation, not deflation.

I do not think the bullish PM cycle is over, but if central banks have agreed to start tightening around the world, and there are signs they have (see Dr. Joe’s [Zhou Xiaochuan is Governor] People's Bank of China this week), that would serve to hurt the Precious Metals.

Then again, any excessive tightening action by multiple central banks would kill the global equity market, which would lead to more money printing, leading to more inflation down the road.

These are nervous times for Gold traders, but as long as the $USD remains in a downtrend and the $XEU (Euro) is in rally mode, then I believe that $GOLD is headed higher.

On Friday, $XEU bumped +0.6 pct on the day and $GOLD responded nicely.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.

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A week ago I opined that with the $USD in a downtrend, I could see $SILVER would soon be trading over 13. This week, $SILVER gained +1.89 pct to close at 13.22.

The gain on Friday alone was +1.1 pct.

The 50-day MA is 13.37 (so the current price at 13.22 is still technically short-term negative) and the 200-day MA is 12.33 (so the case is Bullish). It appears to me that any resistance put up by the 50-day MA line could be taken out in a small rally this week.

Interactive 60-minute data

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.

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$PLAT gained 16.90 (+1.40 pct) W/W to 1224.90. Please note that 1229.10 was the most recent cycle high, so a new cycle high could be set this week.

The 50-Day MA for $PLAT is now 1193.20 and the 200-Day MA is 1185.95.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.

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$PALL dropped -3.65 (-1.03 pct) W/W to close at 351.78. That’s disappointing because I like to see all four of the PM complex move higher in sync.

The 50-day and 200-day Moving Averages for $PALL are 346.92 and 331.63 respectively, which is below the current price, which means palladium is still technically bullish.

There has been a bullish pattern here since early October (290.88).

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.

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Base metals have been very strong. I believe that the four major metal miners are squeezing the market. There was some huge debt underwritings needed to support their take-overs in the past year, and I believe the miners now want their “piece”.

$COPPER a week ago gained 7.70 (+2.84 pct). This week $COPPER gained 22.70 (+8.15 pct) W/W to close at 301.10.

Was this a price response to global economic expansion where demand outstrips supply or rather a withdrawal of offers by the major miners? I think the latter, in which case this trend might persist.

The 50-day MA for $COPPER is 264.74, and the 200-Day MA is 316.60. Can the current price (301.10) surpass the 200-day MA soon? Well, it’s only $15 away and these contracts jumped +22.70 this week alone.

A week ago, I wrote, “There was a February low of 238.50, and a high of 290.00, with a subsequent high of 287.40. It looks like that 290.00 price has to be taken out in a rally before I’d start thinking $COPPER is bullish. But that resistance level is just $12 away.”

Bingo! $COPPER is undeniably bullish as the two previous cycle highs were easily taken out this week.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.

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Table 12: Senior gold equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
BVN	28.97	0.63	2.22%	6.04%	8.38%	-3.75%	4.93%	5.19%	7.54%	20.26%
AUY	14.07	0.13	0.93%	2.70%	2.18%	-0.35%	14.11%	11.23%	40.70%	59.89%
AEM	37.69	0.05	0.13%	2.47%	2.95%	-7.03%	-3.16%	-7.55%	23.25%	50.58%
NEM	42.93	0.79	1.87%	1.51%	-0.44%	-7.70%	-2.87%	-9.60%	-2.76%	-14.14%
GFI	17.11	0.04	0.23%	0.53%	1.72%	-3.82%	-6.66%	-6.35%	-2.73%	-13.41%
ABX	28.07	-0.01	-0.04%	0.39%	-1.40%	-10.92%	-5.90%	-7.82%	-3.47%	5.53%
LIHRY	40.75	0.34	0.84%	0.02%	-10.54%	-7.20%	25.31%	0.00%	-12.37%	23.37%
KGC	13.00	0.03	0.23%	-1.29%	0.78%	-3.70%	13.84%	9.98%	9.06%	33.47%
MDG	24.54	0.12	0.49%	-2.70%	-3.84%	-21.27%	-6.66%	-12.54%	-3.73%	-3.65%
GG	23.96	-0.14	-0.58%	-3.19%	-5.26%	-16.43%	-12.36%	-14.46%	4.45%	-14.28%

The gold stocks and the base metal stocks suffered huge losses two weeks ago and were flat last week. This week, there was a rally of sorts. The least we can say is that these stocks are basing.

To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive 15-minute data
Interactive 60-minute data
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive 15-minute data
Interactive 60-minute data
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive 15-minute data
Interactive 60-minute data
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive 15-minute data
Interactive 60-minute data
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive 15-minute data
Interactive 60-minute data
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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$XAU, GDX and (TSE’s) XGD were +0.96 pct, +1.42 pct, and +0.40 pct, respectively. Friday was a big day.

The $XAU index closed at 133.31. The 50d-MA (136.95) and 200d-MA (137.39) are above the current price for the 3rd consecutive week, which means that the PM stocks are still technically bearish, but perhaps starting to recover.

Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

GDX Weekly data:

GDX Daily data:

GDX Hourly data:

The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

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Forex Review

The $USD closed at 83.27, a loss of -1.04 (-1.23 pct) W/W, which is relatively big loss in one week. The $USD 50-Day MA is now 84.46, and the 200-Day MA is 85.07, so the current price (83.27) is technically quite bearish.

Apparently the unwinding of the Japanese carry trade by large fund managers through the end of the March fiscal year will continue to stress the $USD.

The following data requires your attention: M3 update as of the past week.

M3 is growing at an excessive rate in order to pay for a war and for govt deficits not matched by taxes.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:

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The Euro (priced in USD) had a very big week, gaining +1.99 (+1.52 pct W/W), closing at 133.12.

The $XEU 50-Day MA is 130.62, and the 200-Day MA is 128.66, so the current price (133.12) is technically quite bullish.

In recent weeks, I opined, “I’d still like to see the Euro move up through the December high of 132.55 before I feel quite comfortable in holding such an over-weighted position in precious metals. But, I still expect that to happen soon.”

Bingo!

Interactive Chart of Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

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The British Pound gained +0.94 (+0.49 pct W/W) to close at 194.17.

The $XBP 50-Day MA is 195.30, and the 200-Day MA is 190.44, so the current price (194.17) is technically bullish in the long-term, but not short-term. This week’s rally stemmed the losses against the $USD for the past couple weeks.

Weekly British Pound Index:

Daily British Pound Index:

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The Japanese Yen had another significant rally against the $USD (ater the one two weeks ago), which saw a gain of +1.01 (+1.19 pct W/W) to close Friday at 85.68. This is a new short-term cycle high.

“Traders who are short the Yen are very nervous here.” Same old; same old.

The 50-Day MA is 83.57, and the 200-Day MA is 85.21, so the current price (85.68) is now both short-term and long-term bullish.

Weekly Japanese Yen Index:

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

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Weekly Canadian Dollar Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

The Canadian Dollar lost -0.27 (-0.32 pct W/W) to close at 85.08 on Friday.

The $CDW 50-Day MA is 85.15, and the 200-Day MA is 87.81, so the current price (85.08) is bearish. A recovery in the price of Oil will likely be necessary to improve the Loonie’s outlook. Also, the Cdn economy has slowed rapidly after the US housing and mortgage industry issues became apparent because many Cdn exporters (wood and building materials) serve that industry.

The lower Loonie ought to help with Cdn tourism this summer.

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International Equities Review

The international markets had another serious decline this week. The Indian ETF (IFN) lost -3.76 pct. The Templeton Russia Fund was down -2.45 pct. The China FXI dropped -1.26 pct W/W.

These markets have been technically weak since the start of the year.

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Asia-Pacific indices (Interactive link)

European indices (Interactive link)

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Table 13: International equities perspective

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
QQQQ	42.82	-0.12	-0.28%	-0.26%	0.78%	-4.46%	-0.97%	-3.62%	6.76%	3.50%
IEV	103.40	0.36	0.35%	-0.89%	1.30%	-4.80%	-2.08%	-2.55%	9.13%	15.92%
EWC	24.96	-0.19	-0.76%	-1.23%	-1.11%	-3.89%	1.05%	-3.26%	6.12%	4.83%
FXI	97.01	-0.97	-0.99%	-1.26%	2.01%	-8.65%	-16.66%	-3.95%	21.98%	34.79%
EWU	23.00	0.01	0.04%	-1.46%	2.68%	-3.97%	-2.34%	-4.49%	6.04%	12.69%
SPY	138.53	-0.94	-0.67%	-1.60%	-0.10%	-4.99%	-2.01%	-2.68%	4.98%	5.72%
EWJ	14.41	-0.01	-0.07%	-1.91%	-0.28%	-3.42%	1.48%	1.84%	7.46%	4.50%
TRF	67.15	-0.58	-0.86%	-2.45%	-0.68%	-10.17%	-24.17%	-19.19%	-0.30%	-10.59%
EWZ	45.36	-0.53	-1.15%	-2.74%	3.47%	-7.30%	-2.87%	-2.64%	18.59%	8.65%
IFN	37.32	-0.59	-1.56%	-3.76%	-2.05%	-14.38%	-17.69%	-21.00%	-9.11%	-25.29%

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Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Japan’s EWJ (which is a USD-denominated NYSE-traded ETF) lost -1.91 pct W/W to 14.41. The Nikkei 225 dropped from 17164 to 16744 (-2.45 pct).

Three weeks ago, I opined that, “The EWJ … current price (15.04) is bullish, but over-heated.” Now the pull-back is -4.2 pct.

As Colin Twiggs says, the long-term technical target of 21000 seems a long way off from the present 16744.

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

Interactive EWJ Monthly data:

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:

Interactive EWJ Hourly data:

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U.K. equity market ETF: EWU

The FTSE 100 of the UK dropped from 6245 to 6130 (-1.84 pct) while the EWU (UK market ETF trading in the US in USD) dropped -1.46 pct.

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

Interactive EWU Monthly data:

Interactive EWU Weekly data:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:

Interactive EWU Hourly data:

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Canadian equity market ETF: EWC

EWC (priced in USD) had a loss of -2.04 pct W/W to close Friday at 24.96, which gets the ETF back exactly to where it had been two weeks ago.

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

Interactive EWC Monthly data:

Interactive EWC Weekly data:

Interactive EWC Daily data:

Interactive EWC Hourly data:

(Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore)

(U.K., Germany, France, Italy)

(Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Australia).

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U.S. Equities Review

All broad indexes in the US stock market fell a little this week. The higher beta Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 small cap indexes dropped -0.62 pct and -0.81 pct respectively, while the usually more staid S&P 500 and Dow 30 dropped -1.13 pct and -1.35 pct W/W.

General Motors (GM -5.9 pct) was enough on its own to sink the Dow 30 a little more than the others.

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I received a letter from the Elliott Wave marketing people this week that opened with something like, “Although you don’t care for our work, etc… we’d like to discuss opportunities, etc”. The point is I do like the Elliott Wave fibonacci work; it’s just that I shudder at how far some of these systems go to create a marketing image that they have the answers that traders need.

I believe a precise number can be precisely wrong, and I have watched early in my career far too many professionals destroy their careers by their blind faith pursuit of some of these technical systems.

Colin Twiggs on the other hand is doing what I have learned to do, which is to look at a multiplicity of indicators in order to think probabilities of trends and cycles persisting. The analysis of risk-reward is as much subjective as it is objective, ie, as much art as it is science.

The best financed F-1 racecar teams can engineer the best car and hire the best drivers, but winning the race also comes down to having a good “feel” for the car and the track, and avoiding the accidents.

That’s why I spend so much time on the Week In Review – every week is a new race, a new track, a different set of weather circumstances, a car that needs to be set up appropriately. At the end of the day, I am trying to get a feel for what it will take me to win the following week’s race.

As I see it, Elliott Wave is like considering the air pressure of my tires – just one of 100 or more factors – albeit an important one – in winning the race.

Now, that’s not picking on Elliott Wave because, as I say, I like the principles behind their system.

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Here is the Monthly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Weekly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Daily data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Hourly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

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Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
T	36.98	0.04	0.11%	1.18%	1.48%	-0.67%	5.81%	3.70%	16.07%	36.41%
AA	33.48	-0.40	-1.18%	0.84%	2.39%	-3.54%	14.15%	7.86%	19.02%	10.75%
MMM	75.28	-0.71	-0.93%	0.74%	3.11%	-2.12%	-3.81%	-3.87%	1.54%	0.52%
BA	90.00	-1.04	-1.14%	0.55%	3.41%	-1.86%	0.93%	-0.77%	19.98%	17.29%
INTC	19.15	0.01	0.05%	0.26%	-0.36%	-10.14%	-5.90%	-8.55%	-1.95%	-2.54%
MSFT	27.33	0.06	0.22%	0.18%	-1.55%	-7.45%	-8.47%	-9.47%	1.83%	0.33%
UTX	64.60	0.20	0.31%	0.16%	0.39%	-6.28%	2.85%	3.44%	-0.02%	10.94%
GE	34.36	-0.16	-0.46%	0.12%	-1.46%	-4.93%	-9.51%	-8.03%	-1.41%	-0.06%
IBM	93.25	-0.20	-0.21%	-0.03%	2.59%	-5.73%	-4.13%	-2.11%	12.43%	12.53%
VZ	36.32	-0.04	-0.11%	-0.36%	-0.44%	-5.42%	-3.97%	-0.44%	1.42%	5.21%
HPQ	39.91	0.21	0.53%	-0.50%	3.21%	-6.49%	-4.11%	-0.10%	10.31%	17.87%
HON	46.94	-0.04	-0.09%	-0.61%	2.24%	-1.32%	4.08%	7.61%	18.09%	10.21%
KO	47.21	0.13	0.28%	-0.76%	2.88%	-1.34%	-2.82%	-3.52%	5.85%	10.59%
PG	61.61	-0.30	-0.48%	-0.88%	-2.45%	-5.20%	-4.54%	-3.90%	1.17%	3.74%
MCD	43.48	0.01	0.02%	-1.52%	-0.44%	-3.33%	-0.89%	0.16%	15.24%	24.02%
C	49.53	-0.60	-1.20%	-1.59%	-0.88%	-8.63%	-10.35%	-8.40%	0.69%	4.67%
PFE	24.99	0.00	0.00%	-1.65%	0.81%	-5.80%	-4.94%	-2.54%	-10.88%	-4.07%
XOM	69.86	-0.83	-1.17%	-1.77%	-0.21%	-7.27%	-5.73%	-9.62%	8.06%	13.34%
CAT	63.16	-0.30	-0.47%	-1.93%	0.19%	-6.60%	3.27%	2.17%	-3.47%	-15.67%
DIS	33.61	-0.18	-0.53%	-2.21%	-1.00%	-3.06%	-1.73%	-2.01%	10.89%	17.19%
DD	49.96	-0.47	-0.93%	-2.31%	-0.26%	-3.50%	1.88%	2.48%	18.25%	17.17%
AXP	55.55	-0.56	-1.00%	-2.37%	0.20%	-5.61%	-7.97%	-9.88%	3.35%	2.64%
MO	84.73	-0.02	-0.02%	-2.45%	1.50%	-1.57%	-2.06%	-0.56%	1.91%	14.65%
WMT	46.21	0.21	0.46%	-2.55%	-3.35%	-4.45%	-2.82%	-0.52%	-4.17%	-0.32%
JNJ	60.51	-0.02	-0.03%	-2.62%	-2.32%	-8.03%	-8.87%	-8.72%	-5.14%	0.82%
HD	37.51	0.02	0.05%	-3.00%	-3.85%	-9.96%	-8.67%	-5.94%	0.78%	-12.26%
AIG	66.87	-0.18	-0.27%	-3.19%	-3.84%	-3.26%	-7.32%	-7.29%	1.75%	-3.42%
MRK	43.09	-0.10	-0.23%	-3.41%	-2.49%	-1.80%	-2.11%	-2.16%	4.84%	22.14%
JPM	47.03	-0.67	-1.40%	-3.67%	-2.41%	-8.16%	-2.16%	-2.63%	0.17%	13.82%
GM	29.17	-0.21	-0.71%	-5.87%	-4.74%	-19.95%	-0.95%	-0.31%	-7.86%	31.28%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

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Dow 30 comments:

The report from Value Line this week is on the Big Daddy of the Dow, Exxon Mobil (XOM), which has the largest market cap of all public companies (over $400 billion).

(XOM: Value Line Report Mar. 16: next one is due Jun. 15)

Exxon Mobil has long been a Cara 100 company because of (i) its financial strength (ii) industry leadership (iii) operating margins and returns on shareholders’ equity and on total capital invested. The problem I have today is that XOM has represented dead money for five months and is likely to produce less than attractive Annual Total Returns for the next 3 to 5 years.

You see, the current quarter (1Q07) will undoubtedly be the peak earnings quarter in the Bull phase that started in 2002. From next quarter onwards, the quarterly earnings are likely to decline Y/Y.

Exxon Mobil is the greatest cash-cow in the history of the corporate world and the company has decided to use that cash in ways that make it appear that the current and future periods are better than they actually are. Through a return of capital via extra dividends and share buy-backs, the Return on Shareholder Equity is a pumped figure.

Traders are not ignorant of this window dressing, so the average annual PE multiple has dropped from the mid-teens to about 10. That’s reasonable.

Also, Value Line forecasts the cash flow per share for 2007 at $8.30/share. Their graph shows a solid line representing 9 times cash flow and the share price falling below that. In a Bear market, however, these big oil companies can often be bought at six times cash flow, which in the case of XOM would be about $50.

Given that the stock is presently trading at about $70, could it drop $20 or about -29 pct from here?

Let’s say the 2007 dividend for XOM is $1.40, that represents, on a $50 handle, a dividend yield of +2.8 pct, which would be ok, but not superb. So, unless interest rates crater immediately (ie, highly unlikely), I don’t think the dividend yield is going to protect XOM from a Bear.

In the previous Bear, XOM dropped from a peak of about 50 to a low of about 30, which is a drop of -40 pct. If, in the next Bear, XOM drops from a high of 79 to 50, that would be a drop of -36.7 pct from peak to trough, which compares.

So, what I am doing here is pointing out that stock prices fall as well as rise – even for the biggest and best managed companies.

Value Line gives you a reason: they estimate full-year earnings at $6.55 for 2006, $6.05 for 2007 and $5.95 for 2008. They forecast a drop-off of total revenues and an increase in reserve replacement, production and operating costs. The boom times (2002-2007) are, in a word, over.

Part of the reason that XOM shares managed to hit a record $79 high in 4Q06 was the result of the $30 billion stock buy-back. I always find it amazing that these mega-cap companies always seem to buy their stock at the top of the cycle. Unlike the average trader, however, I’m not afraid to call a spade a spade. I think these trades are set-ups for Friends & Family.

Of course, crude oil prices could possibly go to $80 or $100, but that’s another story.

I am also getting you prepared to buy when stocks of sound companies come to you at attractive prices (ie, Accumulation Zone), and to sell when they are over-bought (ie, in the Distribution Zone).

In November and December 2006, XOM shares hit their Distribution Zone. The price of the stock was in the upper 70’s. The Monthly-Weekly-Daily RSI-7 values (see attached charts) were well above the 70 line and peaking. That’s when you should have sold XOM.

Presently the M-W-D RSI-7 values are 53.6/33.5/33.2. The share price has fallen from 79 to 69.86, which is a loss to shareholders of about $60 billion. In a few months perhaps, the share price will fall another $10 or $20, which will be a loss of a further $100 – 115 billion.

Do you know what this loss means within the concept of the “wealth effect”? It’s devastating. And this – albeit the biggest market cap – is just a single stock.

And where do you think the RSI-7 values are likely to be when XOM hits a multi-year cycle low of say $50? Yes, those RSI-7’s will be under 30 across the board, which will be the Accumulation Zone.

And, then, when the world is talking about crude oil falling to $30 and the economy going into depression, you ignore that talk, and you buy XOM. And when you buy the stock, the PE will be somewhere around 8.3, the cash flow per share will be down at 6, and the dividend yield will be about 2.8 pct – maybe higher – and you can relax.

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Alcoa [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(AA: Yahoo Finance file)
(AA: StockChart chart)
(AA: Billcara2 chart)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: Value Line Report Jan. 19: next one is due Apr. 20)

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Altria Group Inc [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MO: Yahoo Finance file)
(MO: StockChart chart)
(MO: Billcara2 chart)
(MO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MO: Value Line Report Feb. 2: next one is due May. 4)

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American International Group [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AIG: Yahoo Finance file)
(AIG: StockChart chart)
(AIG: Billcara2 chart)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: Value Line Report Feb. 23: next one is due May 25)

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American Express [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AXP: Yahoo Finance file)
(AXP: StockChart chart)
(AXP: Billcara2 chart)
(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AXP: Value Line Report Feb. 23: next one is due May 25)

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AT&T [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(T: Yahoo Finance file)
(T: StockChart chart)
(T: Billcara2 chart)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: Value Line Report Dec. 29: next one is due Mar. 30)

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Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30. Cara 100]
(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)
(BA: Billcara2 chart)
(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BA: Value Line Report Dec. 22: next one is due Mar. 23)

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Caterpillar [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(CAT: Yahoo Finance file)
(CAT: StockChart chart)
(CAT: Billcara2 chart)
(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CAT: Value Line Report Jan. 26: next one is due Apr. 27)

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Citigroup [GICS 40, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(C: Yahoo Finance file)
(C: StockChart chart)
(C: Billcara2 chart)
(C: ADVFN Financial Data)
(C: Value Line Report Feb. 23: next one is due May 25)

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Coca Cola [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(KO: Yahoo Finance file)
(KO: StockChart chart)
(KO: Billcara2 chart)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: Value Line Report Feb. 2: next one is due May. 4)

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Disney [GICS 25, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(DIS: Yahoo Finance file)
(DIS: StockChart chart)
(DIS: Billcara2 chart)
(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DIS: Value Line Report Feb. 16: next one is due May 18)

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Dupont [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(DD: Yahoo Finance file)
(DD: StockChart chart)
(DD: Billcara2 chart)
(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DD: Value Line Report Jan. 19: next one is due Apr. 20)

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ExxonMobil [GICS 10, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(XOM: Yahoo Finance file)
(XOM: StockChart chart)
(XOM: Billcara2 chart)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: Value Line Report Mar. 16: next one is due Jun. 15)

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General Electric [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(GE: Yahoo Finance file)
(GE: StockChart chart)
(GE: Billcara2 chart)
(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GE: Value Line Report Jan. 12: next one is due Apr. 13)

---

General Motors [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(GM: Yahoo Finance file)
(GM: StockChart chart)
(GM: Billcara2 chart)
(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GM: Value Line Report Mar. 2: next one is due Jun. 1)

---

Hewlett-Packard [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(HPQ: Yahoo Finance file)
(HPQ: StockChart chart)
(HPQ: Billcara2 chart)
(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HPQ: Value Line Report Jan. 12: next one is due Apr. 13)

---

Home Depot [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(HD: Yahoo Finance file)
(HD: StockChart chart)
(HD: Billcara2 chart)
(HD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HD: Value Line Report Jan. 5: next one is due Apr. 6)

---

Honeywell [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(HON: Yahoo Finance file)
(HON: StockChart chart)
(HON: Billcara2 chart)
(HON: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HON: Value Line Report Jan. 26: next one is due Apr. 27)

---

IBM [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(IBM: Yahoo Finance file)
(IBM: StockChart chart)
(IBM: Billcara2 chart)
(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(IBM: Value Line Report Jan. 12: next one is due Apr. 13)

---

Intel [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(INTC: Yahoo Finance file)
(INTC: StockChart chart)
(INTC: Billcara2 chart)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: Value Line Report Jan. 12: next one is due Apr. 13)

---

Johnson & Johnson [GICS 35, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(JNJ: Yahoo Finance file)
(JNJ: StockChart chart)
(JNJ: Billcara2 chart)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: Value Line Report Mar. 2: next one is due Jun. 1)

---

JP Morgan [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(JPM: Yahoo Finance file)
(JPM: StockChart chart)
(JPM: Billcara2 chart)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: Value Line Report Feb. 23: next one is due May 25)

---

McDonalds [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MCD: Yahoo Finance file)
(MCD: StockChart chart)
(MCD: Billcara2 chart)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: Value Line Report Mar. 9: next one is due Jun. 8)

---

3M Company [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 250 June 25-06]
(MMM: Yahoo Finance file)
(MMM: StockChart chart)
(MMM: Billcara2 chart)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: Value Line Report Feb. 16: next one is due May 18)

---

Merck [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(MRK: Yahoo Finance file)
(MRK: StockChart chart)
(MRK: Billcara2 chart)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: Value Line Report Jan. 19: next one is due Apr. 20)

---

Microsoft [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(MSFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(MSFT: StockChart chart)
(MSFT: Billcara2 chart)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: Value Line Report Feb. 23: next one is due May 25)

---

Pfizer [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(PFE: Yahoo Finance file)
(PFE: StockChart chart)
(PFE: Billcara2 chart)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: Value Line Report Jan. 19: next one is due Apr. 20)

---

Procter & Gamble Co. [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(PG: Yahoo Finance file)
(PG: StockChart chart)
(PG: Billcara2 chart)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: Value Line Report Jan. 5: next one is due Apr. 6)

---

United Technologies [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(UTX: Yahoo Finance file)
(UTX: StockChart chart)
(UTX: Billcara2 chart)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: Value Line Report Jan. 26: next one is due Apr. 27)

---

Verizon [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(VZ: Yahoo Finance file)
(VZ: StockChart chart)
(VZ: Billcara2 chart)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: Value Line Report Dec. 29: next one is due Mar. 30)

---

Wal-Mart [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(WMT: Yahoo Finance file)
(WMT: StockChart chart)
(WMT: Billcara2 chart)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: Value Line Report Feb. 9: next one is due May 11)

---

Wrap up:

A week ago I wrote that I had “picked up a doozie of a cold at PDAC.” Turns out I got myself run down, which brought on a second round of the pneumonia I had suffered in January and February. This is not something to take lightly, so I will abide by doctors orders and medications. I will stay in bed – with the exception of the WIR of course, and an hour each morning doing the Bull Board.

After I review the notes on PDAC from Jake and Jock, probably today, I’ll publish an article on that. I hoped it would be a lengthy one, but I decided to take it easy for now because I’d like to stick around for a few more years.

For this reason, I asked my book publisher to hold off for two months on the release of the book, which was an easy decision because the manuscript simply is not ready. Close, but not quite there.

Also, any premium reports/newsletters will be held of as well, and I will delay my full-time move to Bahamas to set up a new registered advisory firm and investment fund for the same reason.

The development of BillCara2.com had a bit of a set back this week too as Investertech.com informed me that they were soon going to drop the intra-day (delayed and real-time) data because the securities exchanges and datafeed vendors have goosed their prices beyond reason.

I’d like to find a sponsor for BillCara2.com, but don’t have the time or good health to start looking. The added cost is about $2500/month, which if I break that down into smaller pieces is probably do-able within a small group of advertisers. But I’m not going to underwrite it personally.

David Jackson, btw, is going to allow me to link by ticker symbol anything published on his excellent SeekingAlpha.com blog to individual charts on BillCara2.com.

Too many things happening at one time, unfortunately, which may be a reason my health hasn’t been up to par. This news by Investertech.com is just another hurdle that will take time to clear.

I even have an army of volunteers, but the problem there is that it takes a lot of management time, which I found I don’t have available.

The good news is that my tech associate Steve is getting deeper into an understanding of all these systems, and he has taken control of much of my publisher’s systems as well. So, the back end that you don’t see will come together better for me, enabling me to offload some of the blog/websites/newsletter/mailing list admin work to the publisher’s staff. This is what I needed all along.

Steve, btw, is one of Canada’s leading systems architects. He helped me design and implement major systems at Canaccord and Qtrade Canada. He also designed the original Notley Trend & Cycle system at RBC as well as many enterprise systems for major banks and brokers in Canada.

These projects take time; but, despite a pittance of a budget at our end, ultimately my systems will be working as well as any that HBB use. It’s only a matter of time.

Enjoy your day. Wherever you are in the world, whether its New York, New Toronto, New Delhi or Nassau, I have a feeling we are on the same page.

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